[SPEAKER_00]: Hey everybody, J.J. Cooper Carlos Clauseo, a baseball American draft podcast.

[SPEAKER_00]: We are back and we've got a lot to talk about today because as you know, if you've gone to baseballamerican.com already, we are now up to the 500, the B.A.

[SPEAKER_00]: 500 is live.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now that's good.

[SPEAKER_00]: That does not mean it's locked out.

[SPEAKER_00]: We've got a lot of work that'll go over the next month plus.

[SPEAKER_00]: We'll tweak, we'll update, we're updating reports, you know, now that season's wrapped up for players and all that.

[SPEAKER_00]: But we have reached the point where we are up to the 500.

[SPEAKER_00]: We rank 500.

[SPEAKER_00]: Really, we rank about 600, 650 was all said and done, because we'll also include senior signs who aren't in the 500.

[SPEAKER_00]: And we'll make sure that we at least have the reports for the other players who were in the 500 and dropped out.

[SPEAKER_00]: But,

[SPEAKER_00]: 500's a good number.

[SPEAKER_00]: Carlos, I was apologizing to him offline.

[SPEAKER_00]: I didn't do pretty much anything and writing up 400 to 500 guys.

[SPEAKER_00]: That was like really I think a Carlos and bin battle or project as much as anything.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: We were worried about the college.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, the conference tournaments and stuff like that.

[SPEAKER_00]: But.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: On the amateur side, I was just going to say I feel like late May and the entire month of June is probably our busiest single section of the calendar.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's just so much going on and getting to 500 is always a really great milestone.

[SPEAKER_01]: It feels good to get there, but at the same time,

[SPEAKER_01]: We've got a lot of reports from the preseason that we want to get updated and finalized to really get you the most in-depth reports possible.

[SPEAKER_01]: So if you're looking ahead to the draft or once your team drafts these players you'll really have a really in-depth report and know these players what they do well, what they do poorly, how they've changed and transformed.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it is a lot of times spent after this stage.

[SPEAKER_01]: As we approach the draft because it feels like the draft should be here, but we still have more than a month to go.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's going to be Combine.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's going to be some summer stuff.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's going to be the incident of late postseason, which JJ and Jacob and Jeff have been getting everyone ready for it.

[SPEAKER_01]: Based on America.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's a busy time.

[SPEAKER_01]: And let's get into whatever you want to get into.

[SPEAKER_00]: And speaking of that, well, the other thing we're going to do today, we're going to cover like some of the big movers in the 500, but we're also today going to kind of give you a little bit of a postseason preview.

[SPEAKER_00]: Because there are players who, what they do, every player, what they do in the postseason may matter, but there are players that it's going to matter a lot more than others.

[SPEAKER_00]: To, you know, a gampold, Van Lackey, Van Lackey doesn't have to do anything in the postseason.

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, he's a catcher.

[SPEAKER_00]: We know what he is, if he has a great month, great, if he has a terrible month, okay.

[SPEAKER_00]: But there's other players a little bit different.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're gonna get to that.

[SPEAKER_00]: But first, we're gonna dive into the new 500.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so we're always trying to adjust for what we're hearing as far as players moving up, players moving down.

[SPEAKER_00]: Carlos, who is the player that kind of stands out the most as far as, okay, we had to bump that guy up,

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, when we were doing the risers and ballers piece for this update, I did feel like we had less movement in the first round and in the top 100 at this stage, which I feel good about, hopefully we've captured a lot of the biggest movement of those players at this point, but Tyler Bell, the Kentucky shortstop, was probably the most notable up arrow player inside the first two rounds, maybe the first round range.

[SPEAKER_01]: We moved him up from early 20s, 21 to 11 right now, and I think.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's just a case of a premium up the middle defensive profile who's also having a really strong offensive season Tyler Bell was tricky for us to figure out earlier in the year because he had a shoulder injury in his first game of the season.

[SPEAKER_01]: He missed some time.

[SPEAKER_01]: He took a little bit to get back when he came back initially.

[SPEAKER_01]: He was playing DH.

[SPEAKER_01]: But then he kind of quickly got.

[SPEAKER_01]: Reintegrated into this Kentucky lineup has been one of the better performers in this Kentucky lineup and has looked pretty good at short stops since he's been back as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think he's just done everything that teams want to see and while he is not the toolsiest player.

[SPEAKER_01]: In this draft, he's a pretty well rounded one.

[SPEAKER_01]: He does a lot of things really well.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's shown an incredibly patient offensive approach.

[SPEAKER_01]: He is not going to expand the zone and get himself out by any means.

[SPEAKER_01]: He has a five, 17 OBP right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's has his career best offensive season.

[SPEAKER_01]: He has a draft that'll just sophomore.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's not like he has multiple years of

[SPEAKER_01]: a production prior to this, but I do think that given Tyler Bell's tool set, teams really wanted to feel confident in the peer-heating ability and the performance, and I think he's doing that so far this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so we've got him in the top half of the first round at this point, I think that's where he's being really heavily scalded by teams who are making picks in the six to 16 range.

[SPEAKER_00]: 333, 468, 576 in SEC conference play this year, which for him, there's not a whole lot of difference between a stat line between conference play because as you just mentioned, he kind of missed the non-conference part of the season and then to his credit had to kind of jump on a moving train and basically get back into the swing of things, really as the conference season started in the SEC and he didn't really have an issue with it.

[SPEAKER_00]: To follow up on that, like we have him now, we've talked all year about how there's this kind of top tier, which I would say on the college bat side, really is a two-player top tier.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's Rochalowski, it's Von Lackey, and then there's a gap.

[SPEAKER_00]: How possible is it, do you think?

[SPEAKER_00]: Is we Belle moving up to 11 here?

[SPEAKER_00]: Has he kind of reached kind of

[SPEAKER_00]: His high watermark that he can get to is there room for him to move up further or is there are there just a little bit of limitation to his game that probably keep him from moving significantly further up this list.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think the answer to that is probably both.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think he could move up as far as seven in our draft board on our final update and it wouldn't shock me.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think once you get outside of our elite top tier, which includes our top six prospects now, you can check out the V5100 to see the exact order there.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I view that as the top tier in this class.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think once you get into that next group, which includes Bell, Drew Burris, Georgia Tech, Ryder Health for Catark and Saw, Chris O'Copin, a Texas A&M.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think all of these players are fairly interchangeable.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, and if you wanted to make the case to me that, hey, Tyler Bell is a college short stop who checks all the boxes, gets on base, doesn't have the same hit to a risk.

[SPEAKER_01]: As a writer, health critic, maybe has more physical projection than a droop Burris, can maybe do a lot more defensively for you than a Chris Hiccopian can.

[SPEAKER_01]: You could argue him at the very top of that group.

[SPEAKER_01]: I really think from seven to maybe even 30 or so, there's a lot of interchangeability of this class, which makes it a challenge, but also think gives Tyler Bell the ability to push

[SPEAKER_01]: really is high up this board as the very top of this second tier players.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's how I view it.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm curious if you view it differently.

[SPEAKER_00]: No, I think you're probably right.

[SPEAKER_00]: I do think that you, again, as you said, you get to seven and it's kind of going to be I have the holder.

[SPEAKER_00]: We've said, we keep trying to signpost this.

[SPEAKER_00]: There could be someone who goes seven eight nine in this draft to we have at 22 23 on our board right or there could be someone who goes 22 23 in the draft who we have eight nine 10 on this board it's very much like It is very muddled and there is Extremely small amounts of separation yeah outside of that top group like so

[SPEAKER_00]: It's going to be how different teams evaluate players and what they're looking for combined with, okay, there's going to be absolutely a

[SPEAKER_00]: When everyone's kind of viewed in that same range, the players willing to cut a deal are also likely to go before the guys were like nope, I'm sticking to my number, not moving on it.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that may mean that you see a guy go 10, who signs for less money than a guy who went 20, even though they're in the same.

[SPEAKER_00]: Normally when you see that, it's more of that they're different demographics, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Like the guy who goes 10, who's a college pitcher may get less money than the bicycle pitcher at 22, because of the leverage and all.

[SPEAKER_00]: This year, it could be like where you see an outfielder go at 10, who signs for less money, call jalfit or signs for less money that a call jalfit or goes at 18.

[SPEAKER_00]: And it would be like, no, that's just how the two teams kind of worked the equation.

[SPEAKER_00]: Um, but I will say, like, as much as Bell moved up, Bell was already in the first round.

[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

[SPEAKER_00]: There's another SEC draft prospect who 120 spot jumps since our last update.

[SPEAKER_00]: So explain kind of the tailorob explosion, the old miss right hander.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, Taylor Rae, right in the picture.

[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, miss, we talked about this a couple of weeks ago, JJ, we said, hey, look at the college pitching demographic as the specific demographic who can jump up boards and heading into the B-A-500 update process.

[SPEAKER_01]: I felt pretty confident we're going to get to the Rae into the top three round range.

[SPEAKER_01]: We had him in the 120 to 150-ish range, like four to five round bucket previously.

[SPEAKER_01]: I knew he was going to move up.

[SPEAKER_01]: The stuff has been tremendous.

[SPEAKER_01]: The strike out to walk has been exceptional.

[SPEAKER_01]: And as we were putting into hit the list, we just continued to get really positive feedback from the industry.

[SPEAKER_01]: I was like, now you need to go higher.

[SPEAKER_01]: You need to go higher with him.

[SPEAKER_01]: So he jumps up to where exactly do we have him here?

[SPEAKER_01]: On this board, 39 right behind Jack Ridell, who is another big up-air riser.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's this cluster of college pitchers, Ben Blair, Jack Ridell, Taylor Ray,

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not sure if they are consensus first round picks across the industry, but we've got them in a position where they're not really far off the board after that.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think the combination of power, strike throwing physicality, the Taylor Ray has shown this here on top of the performance.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's been really good in SEC play.

[SPEAKER_01]: Just warns this up there, I'll move.

[SPEAKER_00]: I will say, we just talked about with Tyler Bell that this is kind of like, okay, he might move up another spot or two, this is kind of a little bit of almost jumping into our second segment, which is a ways away still, but I think he is someone who.

[SPEAKER_00]: If the postseason goes really well, we may, as we said, we're going to keep updating this.

[SPEAKER_00]: It would not shock me if he keeps doing what he's been doing recently, which if someone's asking, well, I was even doing recently.

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, he struck out 14 against Texas A&M on May 9th, and he struck out 13 with no walks.

[SPEAKER_00]: He struck out 13 with one walk against Alabama on May 15th, which by the way, those are not like rollover teams.

[SPEAKER_00]: Those are teams who are

[SPEAKER_00]: prominent in the postseason.

[SPEAKER_00]: If he keeps doing this, he has real stuff.

[SPEAKER_00]: And when you say like, I will say his ERA has kind of not come along for the ride, but I do know that you love, and I love to.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: Looking at walk, but basically.

[SPEAKER_00]: Sure.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I go right minus walk.

[SPEAKER_01]: Great.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's one of the things that yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's hurt in the SEC play.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's number one of all SEC pictures if you're looking at in conference play and he's also number one in K-rate in conference play.

[SPEAKER_00]: He has exceptional strikeout rate and a exceptionally low walk rate while throwing while touching 100.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I love this stat because I really just think it isolates talent and dominance really well, which is what you're looking for for college pictures.

[SPEAKER_01]: So if you look at college pictures this year, who have thrown at least 50 innings and you just sort by strike out minus walk rate.

[SPEAKER_01]: The first five names you get are Dax Whitney Mason Edwards, Rugerio Hoss, Taylor Rae, Logan Reddeman.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, right after that is cold car loan, I could keep going down the list.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's some really impressive underclass arms here, but when you pair that dominance and then you look at the actual pitch stuff and see what he's throwing.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is not a smoke and mirrors pitch ability college performer.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is guy with legitimate impact stuff.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, his fastball grades out tremendously well, just based almost entirely on the power.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's 96 to 99 miles per hour pretty consistently.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's got a couple of really promising secondarys to go with it.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I just think that he kind of is checking a lot of boxes, and if you wanted to put on some thresholds or markers for Walkerate, I would imagine he's in a pretty elite company in that as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like it almost surprised me with how good his Walkerate has been this year, and even historically he's just been a dominant pitcher, and I think he's getting rewarded for that, and he'll be rewarded for that on draft day.

[SPEAKER_00]: I would say this, like the reason I was kind of laid this out, he does feel like that we may be on, I'm not saying it's the same picture, I'm not saying he's gonna go top 10 or something like that.

[SPEAKER_00]: But there is a little bit of the Kade Horton story here again from the standpoint of guy coming off Tom and John, like if you said, well, why won't you guys as high on him coming at the start of the year, you gotta remember, this guy didn't throw into the sixth inning

[SPEAKER_00]: until April 12th.

[SPEAKER_00]: They ramped him up.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like it was something where it was two, three innings, they were working him up.

[SPEAKER_00]: And basically kind of like we got to April and it's like okay,

[SPEAKER_00]: Now we're going to release you to just be a starting pitcher, no limitations, go for it.

[SPEAKER_00]: And he's just gotten better and better and better, but there's a, like, you can look at it both ways.

[SPEAKER_00]: There's a small track record here compared to the other pictures that he's now in this world with.

[SPEAKER_00]: But at the same time, he's also a guy who has projectability, who has present stuff and you could say like, there's more.

[SPEAKER_00]: run way here for him to keep getting better because we just haven't seen him on the mound very much.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think team seemed less concerned when pictures who are pitching well with real stuff don't have a lengthy track record.

[SPEAKER_01]: You mentioned Kate Horton.

[SPEAKER_01]: We see a lot of these guys who really just jump up and if you're performing in teams think that

[SPEAKER_01]: what you're doing now and what you're showing now is representative of your true talent.

[SPEAKER_01]: It does seem like they're not as keen to penalize you as they might be for a hitter who has less track record.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think maybe I'll just emphasize here as we close out with Raib.

[SPEAKER_01]: The jump in his stuff year over year is significant.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's almost three full ticks fastball velocity harder in 2026 than he was in 2025.

[SPEAKER_01]: And he was already sitting

[SPEAKER_01]: with average fastball velocity year goes 93.7, but now he's averaging just over 96.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's just a really impressive jump and stuff and the performance followed.

[SPEAKER_00]: I just kind of want to ask you with that.

[SPEAKER_00]: So we have Kate Townsend, like just speaking of apples, that apples to apples somewhat.

[SPEAKER_00]: Old Miss starting pictures.

[SPEAKER_00]: We have Kate Townsend 12 spots ahead of him right now.

[SPEAKER_00]: They're now actually having had kind of, I would say similar seasons.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like it's funny, like, you know, I talked about how Rayb, they kind of erupt them up, but he's got 57 innings Townsend has 59.

[SPEAKER_00]: They have basically the same number of strikeouts.

[SPEAKER_00]: Rayb's walked a few less.

[SPEAKER_00]: Is it?

[SPEAKER_00]: Crazy to think that we could end up seeing Rae end up going off the board before Townsend, or is that kind of like, where he could work into that range, or is that maybe a little bit hot?

[SPEAKER_01]: I'll be curious.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know that I have a great feel for that.

[SPEAKER_01]: Currently, there are a lot closer today than they were a few weeks ago.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like when we were doing our last mock draft, Kate Townsend's name was coming up throughout the entire first round and in Rape's name really wasn't mentioned.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I'd say for now, I probably still feel like it's more likely that Townsend goes in front.

[SPEAKER_01]: But the fact that we're having this conversation now, I think maybe speaks to the fact that they are a little bit closer.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I guess I might have a better answer for that in the coming weeks.

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, speaking of these are all guys with college guys, we're talking about the big risers and the top under that calm to the college side first.

[SPEAKER_00]: And these are also all players who, if you're listening to this, you could watch this weekend in NCAA regionals as well.

[SPEAKER_00]: Next one up is North Carolina Center Theatre, which by the way, you can just start right there and signal North Carolina Center Fielder.

[SPEAKER_00]: Generally, you know, that's guys going to go pretty well.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's pretty much like a, okay, so he's going top two, three rounds, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Because that's what they do every time, but

[SPEAKER_00]: He was another big climber in this.

[SPEAKER_00]: Why is whole climbing upwards?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think Hall has just done a really nice job performing in conference.

[SPEAKER_01]: He was a player who came into this season with maybe high expectations, six foot four, 215 pound outfield or left handed hitter with tools.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's got power.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's got speeds, he could defensive ability.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think just given his track record at George Mason, the question was going to be, okay, like you put up numbers there before you've performed there before how are you going to handle.

[SPEAKER_01]: the ACC hit well early on.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think in particular the conference performance numbers with Owen Hall has given teams a lot of confidence he's hitting or he hit for 18, 500, 648 in conference and OPS north of 1100.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so when you look at

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think depending on how teams come to this, oh and whole, I think the biggest question for him is can he get the ball in the air.

[SPEAKER_01]: His, his bad at ball angles are probably not exactly how you'd want to draw it up.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's not able to take full advantage of the raw power that he does have.

[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe some teams think that those angles are a little bit more innate and harder change.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you're a team who thinks you can maybe help him.

[SPEAKER_01]: improve the launching a little bit get the ball near to the pull set more I think there's a lot of upside to be had here and I think when we were updating this list we really felt like he belonged in this really interesting toolsy performance college alfield and group that includes Carter back in the United States who is a model darling will gas brino at UCLA who is the ultimate tool shed high risk high reward profile and then guys like Kyle Jones at Florida as well so he

[SPEAKER_01]: for this update then where he did previously.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's got a really good chance to go on the second third round.

[SPEAKER_00]: Going to ding the ACC a little bit here.

[SPEAKER_00]: They have an updated their stats on their site since the tournament.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I will note that.

[SPEAKER_00]: I can pretty much surmise from that.

[SPEAKER_00]: Second best batting average in conference play this year behind Jared Avicula, who, by the way, before the AC tournament was hitting 477 ACC play.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, absolutely.

[SPEAKER_01]: That, I didn't realize it was that good relative to the other conference hitters, but when you think about how Jared Avicula is viewed in his pure hitting ability and you layer on the tool set that all in whole has, like it's a really exciting profile.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot more to dream on in terms of impact there.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I should say I apologize ACC.

[SPEAKER_00]: They've separated the turnout as postseason stats, which I kind of agree with that.

[SPEAKER_01]: But it is a C competition.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, yeah, but what I've said is yes, so hold hit 432 in ACC regular season play.

[SPEAKER_00]: Which is a number that I think will absolutely.

[SPEAKER_00]: kind of, you know, that that'll be one that people will be paying attention.

[SPEAKER_00]: And again, as we always say, I know that someone's hearing this is saying, why do you keep talking about batting average?

[SPEAKER_00]: But batting average for...

[SPEAKER_00]: Developing players is much different than the value of batting average for major league players where on base obviously becomes more important.

[SPEAKER_00]: But batting average is pretty good proxy for your hitting ability in 100%.

[SPEAKER_00]: For draft prospects.

[SPEAKER_00]: But one more college player that we want to cover, which is, I think one of the more fascinating stories of this, like, when do this are guys?

[SPEAKER_00]: When Garrett writes sign with Tennessee, you would have expected him to be playing

[SPEAKER_00]: But then he had a hand injury right before the season.

[SPEAKER_00]: And it really does speak to his athleticism.

[SPEAKER_00]: And, by the way, they also have in the time that, you know, so he really, the hand injury basically meant that it hurt to catch

[SPEAKER_00]: stuff, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: And Tennessee has a lot of stuff as he was working his way back.

[SPEAKER_00]: So they stuck your right to center field.

[SPEAKER_00]: And not a whole lot of catchers could have the athleticism to be like, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Not even we're going to stick you in left field.

[SPEAKER_00]: We hope they won't hit the ball to you very much.

[SPEAKER_00]: No, you're our center fielder now.

[SPEAKER_00]: And Gary writes done it, which I do think really kind of adds to his value that you really demonstrate as athleticism.

[SPEAKER_00]: They're didn't

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think it has to because even though I would imagine most teams are still really excited about what he could look like as a full-time catcher, the fact that you have this exit ramp that still gives you a premium position player that's going to allow whatever he does for you offensively to profile really nicely.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think has to be thrilling to teams.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's had really good performance as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe the conference numbers not quite as impressive as some of the other guys we're talking about in this range with hole and Bell in particular, but overall the season lies impressive.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's got three years now of an OPS greater than a thousand.

[SPEAKER_01]: He has some strength and power.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think with his approach, there's some low hanging fruit there to improve him and get him to be a little bit more productive, but the athleticism of the defensive profile is really compelling here.

[SPEAKER_01]: As we talk about this college catching class, especially, there are a lot of just unique athletes at catcher this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: Von Lacky is obviously the headliner, Daniel Jackson turning in a historic season for catcher with this rare power speed combo at Garrett Wright to that group.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think in general, college catching profiles are

[SPEAKER_01]: Teams want to draft catchers in the college demographic is overwhelmingly where they go to do that.

[SPEAKER_01]: So these are profiles that tend to get pushed up boards, even if you think you like a player as a fourth round, or you might have to take that player in the third round just because you're not going to get a chance to grab them.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's just a scarcity element here.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I do think we've got a lot of,

[SPEAKER_01]: up arrow movement on a number of catching profiles beyond get right I think part of that is because maybe we're just lighter on that demographic heading into this update but I do think a lot of these guys have gone out and performed and are just super valuable to team so we're trying to reflect that in the update here.

[SPEAKER_00]: don't want to ignore the prepside though, too, because there are also guys on the high school side who are moving up.

[SPEAKER_00]: Two guys most notably, I'll just like kick it to you there.

[SPEAKER_00]: There's a short stop at an outfielder.

[SPEAKER_00]: Why did Dylan Bowen and Andrew Jales and by the way, Andrew Jales spells out with a U, which I see that, and I'm like, wait, Andrew, don't know.

[SPEAKER_01]: Andrew, yeah, I'm sure he's gonna get mistaken for Andrew Jones quite a bit, just with the GJ sounded the second.

[SPEAKER_01]: Second part of the name, but yeah, two high school players that are new entrance onto our draft board guys who have had a really strong spring seasons.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'll just hit on those briefly now.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I think for Bowen, it's more that last summer, we got the sense that teams thought he was a really skilled player, but maybe didn't have the sort of tool set.

[SPEAKER_01]: That warranted him being in the range and the tools have jumped this spring.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're much better.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's stronger.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's turning in 65 run, run grade times from home to first.

[SPEAKER_01]: He has a chance to play.

[SPEAKER_01]: shortstop defensively at the next level and then Andrew Giles, he doesn't look like a typical corner outfield slugger, he's a little bit smaller than that, 5 foot 1180 pounds, his swing seems more geared to line drives, it's fairly level.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think Scouts are really enamored with his hit power combination in particular.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of confidence in his traits to hit.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's shown impressive rock power to all fields for a player of his size.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's left-handed, which helps if Scouts think he's going to be a corner outfielder, which there's a risk he might be.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's a solid runner.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's not a burner.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I imagine if he's a guy who gets drafted.

[SPEAKER_01]: out of his ordering commitment.

[SPEAKER_01]: He probably starts in center field and plays there as long as he can.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I think for for Giles it's mostly the hit hit power combo has been so impressive this spring.

[SPEAKER_01]: But yet too exciting, toolsy prep hitters in Dylan Bowen who's in Indiana and in Andrew Giles in Nevada who just wanted to bring people's attention to.

[SPEAKER_01]: We have them both in the sort of top six round range at this stage.

[SPEAKER_00]: So that's a look at some of the players who rose up in the top 100 in the most recent update.

[SPEAKER_00]: But next, what we're going to do is look at some guys who could impact their draft status pretty significantly during postseason play.

[SPEAKER_00]: We'll do that right after this quick break.

[SPEAKER_00]: So Carlos, we're back and this is gonna be, I think one of the things that we'll both be paying a lot of attention to this weekend.

[SPEAKER_00]: We wanted to pick out five players who college players, obviously we're talking about NCAA regional since weekend and regional super regionals Omaha.

[SPEAKER_00]: Here are five players who, how they perform, could have a bigger impact on where they go potentially, than other players.

[SPEAKER_00]: Again, obviously it impacts everyone, but it impacts players differently.

[SPEAKER_00]: We'll explain in each of these cases why it could be so impactful for this player.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're gonna start though with one of the top pitching prospects in this class, and I think this one no matter how closely and again,

[SPEAKER_00]: minute 25 of the draft podcast, I guess you're playing probably pretty close attention.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think we need to explain much why Cameron Flooky and what he does in the regional.

[SPEAKER_00]: And beyond, if coastal goes deeper, is very important.

[SPEAKER_00]: I will start with the kick it to you.

[SPEAKER_00]: 20 point he was injured obviously after his first start this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: 20 point two

[SPEAKER_00]: getting to see a healthy dominant camp fluki on the mound is something that teams are still kind of really kind of waiting to see right.

[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

[SPEAKER_01]: So he came back from his ribs train about a month ago and he's still working the pitch count and the the volume in his games back up, he threw two innings and his first few starts, he's been up to four innings so far.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think to seeing him get to closer to like midseason form, he's still not quite there yet.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, the stuff has been probably what you would expect with Cameron Flookie.

[SPEAKER_01]: His fastball velocity has been what has been there mid 90s up to 98, 99, which is typical of him.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think you maybe haven't seen the same sort of polish and execution that you were used to a year ago, the strike throwing in particular has been a little bit more.

[SPEAKER_01]: He has multiple seasons of high level starter track record.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's got one of the better fastballs in the class.

[SPEAKER_01]: He has this foundation of strike throwing in command.

[SPEAKER_01]: That gives seems a lot of confidence in his starter profile.

[SPEAKER_01]: But there are added health concerns now that he missed so much time.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think there are some questions about how he does it on a mound with his delivery.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's not been a problem for him execution-wise.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I do think there may be will be more health concerns for how he does it just given his health track record in history to this stage.

[SPEAKER_01]: be healthy, pitch deeper into games and just show the stuff that teams have come to expect for him is going to be really key because I do still think that we don't have an obvious who's the next college pitcher in this class after Jackson Flora is off the board.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that is still fairly wide open for pitchers who are competing in this NCAA tournament.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's going to be a chance for someone to come out, kind of make their mark and be that pitcher.

[SPEAKER_01]: Cameron Flookie is best

[SPEAKER_01]: But I do know that there are teams picking in the middle of the first round that if he got to them, it's not like a slam dunk, yes, they're taking him.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think for him, it's more like it's kind of reinforcing who we all thought he was.

[SPEAKER_01]: And Flookie is a guy who's pitched at this stage at a very high level.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's done it before.

[SPEAKER_01]: But mostly I think just logging more innings, throwing more pitches, getting deeper into games is going to be really important for him.

[SPEAKER_00]: Next up is a guy we've talked about a lot this year on the draft podcast, but Alabama shortstop Justin LeBron, who let's just start by saying like obviously every player having a good postseason's useful helpful, but

[SPEAKER_00]: It is a credit to LeBron's tools that he has slid in our rankings.

[SPEAKER_00]: We had him at the start of the year, we were talking about, hey, is this a guy who could battle Rochalowski for being the best short stop on the board?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, we had him on our February list.

[SPEAKER_01]: We had him five.

[SPEAKER_01]: He was top five in each of our first two updates this year coming into the draft class.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, we have him at 19.

[SPEAKER_00]: But the fact that he is still 19th says so much about him

[SPEAKER_00]: on performance.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is not a first-round pick.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you said that, if you were basing it on performance, LeBron is hit in conference play, which you're to do list for Justin LeBron coming into the year we did this for all the first-round picks was better season and show that you can hit in conference play because conference play is kind of a proxy for the best arms if you're an SEC player.

[SPEAKER_00]: The best arms you're gonna face are gonna be in conference play.

[SPEAKER_00]: And LeBron hit 229, 328, 413 and SEC play.

[SPEAKER_00]: You've put that in perspective.

[SPEAKER_00]: In OPS, that was 83rd out of 113 SEC qualifiers.

[SPEAKER_00]: In batting average, that was 93rd out of 113 team qualifiers.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's hard to find someone who's gone in the first round in recent years with that kind of SEC conference play statline.

[SPEAKER_00]: However, we still expected to be a first round pick right now.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I would also say, with a deep run for Alabama,

[SPEAKER_00]: with a strong postseason where he kind of has a couple of games where Justin LeBron puts this team on his back.

[SPEAKER_00]: Right.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that it would help kind of like kind of push some of this kind of into the background a little bit.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think for LeBron, it's maybe a more like narrow conversation you're going to have because I do think the teams who are going to eliminate LeBron from consideration for their first overall pick because of his track record, those teams probably are not going to be swayed by a few hot weeks if Alabama makes a run.

[SPEAKER_01]: in the tournament.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I think the teams who are still really enamored with his tools in his upside, if they have high level decision makers going into watch him and just trying to get a better feel and he has one of those Justin Lebron games, which he's definitely capable of having he's capable of hammering a ball out of the part to the pull side of making some highlight real defensive plays of just being a menace on the base paths.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like, I do think that at this stage,

[SPEAKER_01]: Having a kind of show me performance in front of decision makers can move the needle and make the difference and so for him it's mostly just like hey you're going to be on a big stage now you didn't have the season you wanted but if you can showcase like I have these elite tools this is why you're going to take a shot on me and flash those I think he's got a chance to just give whoever is going to take a shot on him which again to been a challenge for us to figure that out but there are still a number of teams.

[SPEAKER_01]: That would really like to get a shot at his upside.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think performing in front of those specific evaluators could be really crucial for his draft stock.

[SPEAKER_00]: You just like to sell a fluke, but I think it's even more true of Fulbron.

[SPEAKER_00]: I cannot think of anyone that we expect to go in the first round who has a wider range of kind of, it would not shock you if you went

[SPEAKER_01]: Top 10 I think still like as that fair like that there's a couple of legitimate landing spots inside the top 10 and then if he pulled a Vahiva a loy like last year and slipped out of the first round entirely that wouldn't shock me either.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's an extremely wide range.

[SPEAKER_00]: I feel like this next player also has a pretty wide range, which is Arkansas right-handed Gabe Gackle who again is another guy who's kind of slid I think a little bit in our rankings pretty steadily through the season.

[SPEAKER_00]: In part

[SPEAKER_00]: He hasn't really performed.

[SPEAKER_00]: He was a starter back into the pen, kind of been in a little bit of both roles.

[SPEAKER_00]: And even when he's been in the pen, there are times in the pen where he's really kind of handling a starter workload kind of coming out of the pen.

[SPEAKER_00]: But 5.4 ERA in SEC play.

[SPEAKER_00]: Even more, concerningly, 1.88 whip, which is,

[SPEAKER_00]: That's 50 if out of 51 SEC pitching qualifiers in conference play.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then the K to B B percentage number that we talked about earlier, when we're talking about Taylor Ray and what is done for him.

[SPEAKER_00]: 48 out of 51 SEC pitchers in conference play.

[SPEAKER_00]: So it's been a disappointing season for Gackle, but the season's not over yet is it?

[SPEAKER_01]: It's not.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think when I think of the Kate Horton, the gauge woods of the world, I think of Gabe Gackle because I do think he has just elite peer stuff.

[SPEAKER_01]: I continue to really like him despite their performances here, despite the fact that he's having

[SPEAKER_01]: the worst strikeout to walk rate of his career this season.

[SPEAKER_01]: He faces reliever concerns and because of all these questions and the performance, he's very split can't be in the range where we have him.

[SPEAKER_01]: There are some teams in Scouts we talked to that don't seem like they would want to take him until at least the third round.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then there are still some teams that are enamored with the pure stuff, the way the fastball plays, just the traits of his release and his fastball makes it one of

[SPEAKER_01]: in this year's class who would take him I think now even still in the second round just take a shot on that upside if he goes out and really performs at a high level I don't think like him being back and play the back of the first round is out of out of line so I think for him the fact that there is this foundation of elite peer stuff is a great starting point he just needs to go out and perform he needs to go out and miss bats he needs to

[SPEAKER_01]: for the teams that are maybe concerned that he's not going to profile as the starter show enough conviction in his command in the depth of his arsenal to prove like hey you can run me out as a starter and you're going to be rewarded for it.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I find myself very high on Gabe Gackle and open to the idea that he could vault up boards.

[SPEAKER_01]: I know I'm probably one of them are optimistic in terms of our staff and probably in line with the highest evaluators on him throughout the industry.

[SPEAKER_00]: We've got two more names that we're going to look at that I would say like there's is more of like okay this is the chance to really shine and we'll get into those right after this quick break.

[SPEAKER_00]: So Carlos, when I'm looking at this and I'm looking at matchups and I'm looking at like must see TV during the regionals, I will definitely be watching liberties try to keep

[SPEAKER_00]: If Ben Blair's on the mound, Liberty's got a chance to be, you know, on a good day, most anybody, but why does he have more to gain from this than just your average run of the mill, call this starting picture.

[SPEAKER_01]: Can I think Ben Blair is probably one of the most.

[SPEAKER_01]: Most prominent mid major arms at the top of the board who has a chance to go in the first round who's not already there now Probably is that guy Depending on how you're like classifying Notre Dame in their competition.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's a different different level But then Blair, I think this is just gonna give him

[SPEAKER_01]: Like you said, it's going to give him a prominent stage to go perform and pitch on.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's pitch tremendous tremendously well this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's got a really unique angle to attack hitters.

[SPEAKER_01]: He has allowed two pitchmakes.

[SPEAKER_01]: There was a ton of strikes.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I do think for Blair, when you're coming from a smaller school in Liberty, there are going to be some scouts who look at your performance with a more critical

[SPEAKER_01]: If you're a band player, you can go out and say, I'll do it on the NCAA tournament stage.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know exactly who their schedule to play in the opener, or hopefully they can maybe have a sneaky run and get into some, some better, but certainly if they have multiple weekends in the postseason, and player gets an opportunity to do it multiple times, I think it's just going to give teams more confidence that,

[SPEAKER_01]: The stuff plays I think teams do a better job at like projecting individual pitch mixes at the next level in a pretty good way, but it's certainly not going to hurt a player like him to face really good competition and he's maybe the

[SPEAKER_01]: I would circle his name as a potential like first round kind of name as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: We haven't just outside of that range right now.

[SPEAKER_00]: The answer to the question though, is he they're facing BC Boston College in the Athens regional, and that's why I say like I expect that they'll use him in game one.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's a three versus two.

[SPEAKER_01]: It would have been nice if he got a chance to face like one of the better offenses in the country.

[SPEAKER_01]: That was like there, you know, but when I was looking at that, I was like, yeah, I don't know exactly who's going to pitch against.

[SPEAKER_01]: It tends to be just through your best arms early.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's a smart strategy.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I don't know if you would want to throw your like ace against.

[SPEAKER_01]: One of the, the few lineups who probably can do damage against any ace in the country this season, but they're going, but yeah, I've been player definitely named to watch.

[SPEAKER_00]: Right.

[SPEAKER_00]: Again, like for them, like if you win that first game, like if you're liberty, like fun Boston College, I'm kind of looking at that game of saying, oh, no, because that's the guy who could absolutely beat us.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then if you're liberty at that point, then you just kind of go, okay, let's figure out the rest of it.

[SPEAKER_00]: Hey, we're on a great run.

[SPEAKER_00]: But.

[SPEAKER_00]: The other here is someone who's coming back and I don't want to put it that you could expect too much out of the NC State's rhyme around, but we still like he is not fallen even after missing much of the season because of injury, but what could he do by coming back?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so I think state has a couple of interesting pictures who we really didn't penalize too much in this update and actually got them a little bit higher because scouts basically told us like, hey, you banged them too much for these injury questions.

[SPEAKER_01]: Ryan Moron is one who we're hoping to see pitch in the NCAA tournament and then Jacob Deuton is another who is not gonna pitch.

[SPEAKER_01]: anymore this year, but we got him back into the hundred after dropping him a decent amount because that surgery, just because he was so dumb.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think he was like a no doubt, second rounder if he's stay healthy, but Ryan Morone could also go in that range.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think teams just have a lot of confidence in the pitch ability that Ryan Morone brings to the table.

[SPEAKER_01]: So for him it's not it's not about proving himself.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's not about like showing better stuff down the stretch.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think it really is just about getting on the mound and showing that your healthy, because he hasn't thrown a ton this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's missing time with injury.

[SPEAKER_01]: And if he can show teams that he's healthy and pitching, I feel like once you're in this range with second round arms, like Ethan Klein-Schmitt,

[SPEAKER_01]: guys like West Mendez at Florida State.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know that there is a significant gap in how teams are viewing those college lieutenant pictures compared to a guy like Ryan Marone and I also think like if you look at Ryan Marone season.

[SPEAKER_01]: The 11.9% walk rate really jumps out to me for him.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think he is a far better strike thrower and command artist than that number.

[SPEAKER_01]: represents and potentially him just battling some injuries, maybe has a lot to do with that, but I think as we talk with Scouts throughout the industry, there's just a lot of confidence in the command and control that he shows and so just getting back on the mound, showing your healthy, I think this is one of those.

[SPEAKER_01]: I hesitate to use high floor in the draft context or just prospect context in general, but he does get bucketed into this like relatively safe

[SPEAKER_00]: Instead of saying high floor, let's kind of trying to explain that to people a little bit.

[SPEAKER_00]: The floor on all of these players is that they don't ever come close to the major leagues, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: You're never talking about second round pick and it's like, oh, it's floor is that he could be a back rotation starter.

[SPEAKER_00]: No, that's not an excellent outcome is that he becomes a back rotation starter.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I do think the way Ben talks about it, often you think of like high upside players as having lower floors.

[SPEAKER_01]: But like I think the higher your upside as a player, the higher your ceiling is, you're kind of dragging your floor with you, just because you have a lot of other ways to create value, whereas with quote unquote like high floor or low ceiling players,

[SPEAKER_01]: Like if if you if you miss on that one trait that you're supposedly good at like you're like you said your your floor is you're not a major league player Um, and so yeah, I do I do has to take throwing like floor and see that especially floor around but But what I would say those is what you're really saying though here is is like when we talk about like if we're comparing say him to like a game gackle right like game gackle

[SPEAKER_00]: has shown like the quality of stuff that is best is really good.

[SPEAKER_00]: But Orion Morone has kind of even though he's missed much this year, you just have this, again, we'll go back to track record.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's kind of just three years as a full-time starter in a really strong program in strong conference.

[SPEAKER_00]: Right, so it's kind of like how much do you value the performance on the field versus the potential for what they could end up being and to be honest, I feel like that that's something in the draft nowadays that when you get into that third or fifth round, yeah, that's where you get a little bit of buckets of both here because you will great.

[SPEAKER_00]: college pitchers who was like, this guy was a stud for three years and you'll have other guys is like, we love his characteristics.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, he's been terrible in college, but we think we can develop him and do better.

[SPEAKER_00]: And you will see like examples of guys coming out of these rounds who had like 70 arrays in college.

[SPEAKER_00]: who ended up being big league pitcher.

[SPEAKER_00]: So it's a little bit of both kind of working in these right.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think I was just trying to pull it up because Matt Eddie had a really nice piece looking at the 2021 draft five years later today and a lot of the most like a lot of the biggest success stories when you get further down into the draft are college arms Mike Vassel in the eighth round Chase Silceph.

[SPEAKER_01]: In the 11th round, I think they're probably some more higher that I skipped on because I know we were talking about it, but yeah, Brian will in the 6th round just look through through these hits and you can probably do it in most drafts, but I do think teams feel a confidence whether that's like just feeling like this is an area of strength for most drafts.

[SPEAKER_01]: at this, like, depth level of a draft or like, hey, we can take these college players, these run-run types who are really good pitchers, we're able to add stuff today in a way that we can in the past.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think that's a good example of that.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'll just take Brian Wu's example, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: So Brian Wu, in the year he was drafted, was a reliever with a 6.11 ERA, a 1.46 FIP.

[SPEAKER_00]: But again, to go back to your status, 13.5 strike out per nine and a 2.6 Watts per nine.

[SPEAKER_00]: So a good strike out or walk ratio.

[SPEAKER_00]: As they reliever with 28 innings for Cal Poly, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Like that's not, and by the way, if you say like, well, what is the year before?

[SPEAKER_00]: 17 innings the year before as a reliever and made some starts as a freshman and had an 8.75 VRA because 2020 you have the pandemic season there in 2020 you know sophomore year but my point of all of this is is there are absolutely guys who are not performing but have like you said they they're like okay the we can mold this raw clay into something we want right and those other players to it's like okay they've already

[SPEAKER_00]: And then the, you know, again, there's like players like that where you're like, okay, we're comfortable taking this because of what is our demonstrated, but let's see what we can add to it.

[SPEAKER_00]: And by the way, with all of these players, this is what's fun about this.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're talking about what they're going to be three, four, five years down the road, minimum.

[SPEAKER_00]: And a lot can change her that time, especially in a world now where, you know, when we're writing up prospects for starting pitching prospects and it's like, yes, six pitches, you know, like, and college players rarely have six pitches, getting more, but not the same way that.

[SPEAKER_00]: a lot of proteins now are like, okay, so you're going to throw this slider to lefties, you're going to throw this slider to righties, you're going to throw this change up because it does what you do this, you're going to throw for a teamwork to see where in the cutter, okay, now we go out in the attack, okay, again, so there's a lot of development ahead, but that is a look at the update for the baseball America draft top 500, the BA 500, it is live over at baseballamerica.com and by the way, if you enjoyed this and you also want to get ready

[SPEAKER_00]: There's a lot more over at baseball america.com.

[SPEAKER_00]: We have previews of all 16 regionals.

[SPEAKER_00]: We also pulled out kind of like analytical darlings like if you want to know who are the hardest throwers.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think I kind of forked team pitchers in the NCAA regionals who have touched 100 miles an hour of the show, which

[SPEAKER_01]: It's the guns, JJ, it's the guns.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, it's not the one that everyone's doing harder.

[SPEAKER_00]: But you got that, you've got, like, also if you want to see all the teens match up statistically, we also ranked all 64 teams, you know, as far as how they line up talent wise, in the, you know, which by the way is not the same thing as our college top 25, because I feel like I've had to answer that a lot this week.

[SPEAKER_00]: You're like, why does this team drop?

[SPEAKER_00]: It's like they haven't dropped.

[SPEAKER_00]: These are two different rankings.

[SPEAKER_00]: We love to rank a lot of things.

[SPEAKER_00]: But all that over at baseballamerica.com, for Carlos, I'm JJ.