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[SPEAKER_01]: Hey everybody, J.J. Cooper Carlos Closso, another baseball American draft podcast, and you can see the bags that are both viralized, probably a little bit more undermined than Carlos's, but that's not because Carlos has probably actually been working harder than I have, because we are wrapping up the draft preview issue of the print magazine, which is kind of one of the kind of the demarcation points I would say in the draft process, because

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[SPEAKER_01]: We've done an update to again, you saw it up there.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We went to 500 on the site, 500 ranked, you know, ranking the top 500 draft prospects for this year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But then having lined that up, Carlos kind of starts the process of going back and updating the reports for everyone at the top, right?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Because,

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[SPEAKER_01]: The fortunately just so many hours in the day.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So we put reports in, but we don't have time to go update everyone's report for all 500 players every month.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So the reports for players at the top, which we are now going to be bringing to the website as well, are the ones that kind of in up being a little bit the most stale in some ways, except for unusual circumstances that major injury or a player who moved into the 100 or whatever.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The Rochalowski's and the great Emerson's of the world, those reports are kind of like, okay, we wrote that very early in the spring process, now we're circling back to them.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And that's what we're gonna talk about today because in the process of doing that, the thing that I think both Carlos and I both love is when you write these reports, you may come into it with ideas.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But the process of going through your notes, of going through what we have, of looking again at the player, at looking at the data, like putting all of it together, and then writing the player up.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Even the mere act of writing that player, often Carlos, I feel like you can change your perception of where that player, what you think about that player.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Is that work for you the same way it does for me?

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, 100% I think for me writing is the best way to think and that's definitely true of thinking through a player in a player's profile and kind of the way you

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[SPEAKER_00]: We're expressing it, I think, is super true.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Like we have pictures of these players in our head, we're obviously very familiar with these players, but I think there is something to just the process of going through and updating our reports on all these players, putting all the final full, and for a lot of these guys, we do still have super regionals coming up this weekend.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So it's not like end of season for every single player, but for most players, the season is over.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We have final kind of performance numbers to look at,

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[SPEAKER_00]: high school seasons around the country are done so we've just got like a culmination of performance information to to kind of look at sort through it's a fun process for me just starting through all the notes seeing

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[SPEAKER_00]: Like in many ways, the top players and maybe Rochelowski's the greatest example of this, like his profile has not changed too much.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We still need to show what he did during his draft year, that's very important to put out.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But like how I thought of Rochelowski before the season, versus how I think of him now, hasn't changed significantly.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that it's partially just a testament to him going out there and taking care of business.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But there are players,

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[SPEAKER_00]: who have been movers on our board throughout the year that you're trying to capture where they rank on talent, you're trying to get feedback from the industry to place them precisely.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But I think this is a really great exercise to really fine-tune the list and really get precise with how we want to line players up.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And I do find myself like writing these reports.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I try to write in,

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[SPEAKER_00]: position group so I like to write pictures one after another and then I like to write hitters one after another and I do feel like sometimes players just stand out and like hey like I really like this player a lot more than I thought I was going to or hey I kind of want to move this player up because

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[SPEAKER_00]: he has all these pros that we can get into and like the guys in front of him maybe feel a little bit more risky.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So I do think there is this sort of crystallization process at this stage and I really enjoy it.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's been a lot of work to get the draft preview magazine together.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We're very, very close now.

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[SPEAKER_00]: As you're listening to this podcast, maybe my responsibilities will be done, but we unveiled the cover earlier this week.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Rockshelasky in a couple of the top players in the class are on it.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I would definitely encourage you guys to go pre-order that.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's cool to have like a physical copy while you're watching the draft.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And I know we're running a, I think we're still running a deal.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Where if you order that now through us, you'll also get kind of a mystery box issue along with that.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So we really appreciate this support.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But yeah, that's kind of how I'm thinking about it.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So, okay, so what we're going to do today is exactly what Carlos just talked about, which is there are players who as he kind of was writing these up.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You write them up.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You look at it.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You kind of re-look at it again.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You're like, you know, maybe I like this guy a little bit more than where he's slotted right now.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And maybe I need to take another look at him or, you know, so that's what we're going to do today and we'll start.

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[SPEAKER_01]: at the top.

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[SPEAKER_01]: This is the highest ring guy that you kind of singled out for this.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So I'll just kind of kick it to you because again, this is going to be me kind of kicking into you and maybe adding a father to, but you're the one who kind of has come to these conclusions as you wrote them up.

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[SPEAKER_01]: What is it about Trevor Condon, the Georgia High School Out Filter that really jumped out as you wrote them up that makes you think, oh, maybe I like this guy even a little bit more.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I already liked him.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, this is a guy who's been a prominent dude for something like, oh, where did Trevor Condon come from?

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[SPEAKER_00]: And Trevor Condon is the exact sort of player who I think is very endearing to anyone who watches him just because of how he plays the game.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He has a very

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[SPEAKER_00]: energetic high effort play style than it's hard to come away, not liking Trevor Condon, but I think as I was digging into his profile and some of the feedback we're getting from scouts this season, I think I had maybe underestimated in my mind just the impact that he's able to generate from the left side, like he is a smaller player, he's a hit first sort of offensive profile, but his ability to engage his lower half and drive the ball with some sneaky pop kind of

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[SPEAKER_00]: a little bit personally, and my mind for the, I'd say the majority of this drafts, like a life out of him is this like contact oriented speedster, old school leadoff trade, who's going to get out of the box really quickly, turn in 70, maybe 80 grade run times play, place in her field, and you're not going to get much extra base damage from him.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I do think like writing this report and just taking a look at what he did this spring, seeing some of the changes to the swing, some of the strength that he's shown.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It just made me feel like it was less of a one dimensional offensive profile and even if he is not going to hit for 20 plus home runs, I do feel like Scout seemed to have enough confidence that he's going to drive the ball with a little bit of authority enough to get over the fence power, maybe in the the mid teams range, hit a lot of doubles and when you layer on that to his already impressive profile.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I just feel like it's a very complete high school hitting prospect that you have a lot of confidence in just the approach the hitting polish and the defensive profile he's very well rounded and I didn't expect the grades that we're putting on him right now to be maybe quite as gotty as they really are across the board.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It does seem like when you look at the high school outfield class.

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[SPEAKER_01]: There's like, he's, depending on what you how you view Jared Grinnellinger, he's either the number two or the number three guy in this class, right?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

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[SPEAKER_01]: On the high school, like there's Eric Booth Jr., who's at a different level, I would say.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Right.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But, but does the,

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[SPEAKER_01]: does the muddiness of the college outfield class?

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[SPEAKER_01]: This is a different demographic, but it's the same, in a similar range.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's not like, there's a very different, you're looking at a catcher versus you're looking at that out.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Does the muddiness of that maybe help a guy like Condon you think?

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's a great point and this is when I've heard from the industry when we're trying to figure out this first round, I think players like Trevor Condon and maybe Trevor Condon specifically because I do think he and Greenling are kind of the next up high school hitters, however you want to classify them positionally.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think there's going to be a lot of comfort in both these profiles.

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[SPEAKER_00]: You can even expand it beyond the college of filters.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think if you're just stacking up Condon next to any of the college hitters available,

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[SPEAKER_00]: Like in my mind, almost every one of the players you would consider in a similar range have more obvious flaws to their game than Trevor Condon does.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And so I think that's going to maybe help him get into a top 15 overall selection on draft that and we've heard his name associated with teams in that range.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think maybe the size and the power will kind of limit how high he can climb, but really once we get outside of the top 10, I think anywhere on the board could be a fit for content for exactly those reasons.

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[SPEAKER_01]: other thing that stands out with that is it's just kind of time to all the guys as well.

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[SPEAKER_01]: They're just aren't a whole lot of high school bats in his range either.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Like, hmm.

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[SPEAKER_01]: it doesn't, it's not a high school class that's deep in first round, you guys you believe in.

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[SPEAKER_01]: As far as hitters.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I do think that's top.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I do think that's a few in between.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think there is a group of guys like Tyler Spangler, Aiden Ruby's, just scrolling down a little bit for their Colp ProSec, Archirhorn, James Clark,

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[SPEAKER_00]: Um, like these are guys who do have a little bit of distance between them in terms of our ranking, but I think I just want to emphasize like that is probably

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[SPEAKER_00]: indicating a greater gap in talent than actually exists in this year's class.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I do think guys like Cole ProSec, archer horn, certainly Aiden Ruiz, both Lawrence who I passed over and didn't mention.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Like if you wanted to say, both Lawrence was a pretty similar overall talent to Trevor Contan.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think you could make the case.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And I think he could wind up going in a pretty similar spot.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So a chance for a lot of the same thing.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That range kind of is a whole lot of

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[SPEAKER_00]: Well, the range seems wider.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, I think I think Trevor Conon does have a higher floor than a lot of these guys, but I do think all of those players Just given the money in this money nature of the draft have a chance to go high potentially on understood deals or something like that, but yeah.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But we also just mentioned the muddiness of the college outfield class.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And you mentioned Zion Rose, the Louisville outfielder as another guy who really kind of stood out at you at him up.

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[SPEAKER_01]: In his case, obviously, there is a starting point which is

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[SPEAKER_01]: He had a late start because of injury.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So how much of this is, hey, he came back out, we got to see what he could do, and how much of it is, as you wrote him up, it's like, oh, this guy's a little bit better than maybe what we thought he was coming into the air.

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[SPEAKER_00]: What says how to me about Zion Rose is just like the confidence in the hit tool and excitement about the future positional profile and power upside.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, Zion Rose, I think right now is very much a hit first sort of offensive player.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He hit six home runs in 36 games, but his performance when he came back.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He dealt with an ankle injury that limited him early in the season.

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[SPEAKER_00]: When he came back, he was exceptional.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He had 417-491-646, and he's really hit it at a high level in all three of his seasons at Louisville.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He said, well over 300, every single season, and he's a plus runner.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He'll turn in some 70-grade run times and coming off that ankle injury, I think it's pretty impressive to see that speed just immediately be back.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He's a lot stronger than maybe you would think if you were just looking at the home run production that he's shown, and I think

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[SPEAKER_00]: Depending on how much you would want to get in the weeds and tweak Zion roses swing, because I think his handset, his path, it's downhill frequently.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's a lot of ground balls in line drives, but he does hit the ball a lot harder.

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[SPEAKER_00]: then I think his home run production maybe indicates.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So if he's a guy who just learns how to elevate the ball more consistently at the next level, I think there's an exciting, maybe power upside for him.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Additionally, I think the defense of profile for Zion is going to be a question.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We're getting kind of split camp feedback on how Scouts are viewing him as a defender.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But because of that speed tool that he has and because he's playing in an outfield that has Lucas Moore in center field,

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think there are a lot of teams who are very excited about the potential of him playing center field when there's not a maybe 70 defender pushing him off the position.

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[SPEAKER_01]: At least starting him there and saying, hey, you know, we always know we can go back to a corner, but let's see if he can do this and some of those guys end up.

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[SPEAKER_01]: in that being good, bigly centerfielders.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Right, Jacob Young, who played Leffield and Deference to Judge Fabian, I believe at Florida, like he did not get much time in centerfield.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I know there were scars where like, hey, we think he's a really good Leffielder.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We think like on another team, he'd play centerfield and Jacob Young.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Now one of the better defensive centerfielders and all of baseball, I'm not saying that Zyn Rose.

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[SPEAKER_00]: is going to be that, but even if you can just not profile as a corner, that mitigates some of the power questions he's going to have now, then also elevates the upside the Zyne Rose could have if he does wind up tapping in some more power.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And so I think...

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[SPEAKER_00]: Again, we talk about a lot of the question marks that this college outfield class has when when writing up Zion Rose looking at the performance, looking at his contact rate history, it's like 84% overall with Louisville.

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[SPEAKER_00]: That's a standout number.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He's been an impact based runner.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I just feel like he can do a lot of things on the field of to add value and the more dug into the profile.

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[SPEAKER_00]: The more excited I was about it and he's another one.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think could fit in this sort of range we were talking about with Trevor Condon because of all these like 10 to 20

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think we had a mocked in that range in our most recent mocked app as well.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Another example I want to bring up of what you're talking about for college players who ended up being good big league center filters.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Harrison Bader did not play center field but two games in his draft year at Florida.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And you know, if you watch him now, you'd be like, wait, what?

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[SPEAKER_01]: No, yeah, if you didn't, that's it's getting.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's not it's not always a slam dunk that because a plate player doesn't play it in college that he can't handle it in the in pro ball and in the big leagues.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It seems to happen a lot without filters as well.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know why that that is.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You mentioned like, I, this kind of goes back to a point that we keep trying to make and I just want to prepare everyone for draft day, right?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Which is, as you just said, you could someone could say, well, we had Zion Rose right now 29th on your board.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You're saying you go to your from 10th to 20th potentially or later.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And this is a class.

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[SPEAKER_01]: There's time for more clarity to develop.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But this is very much a class that feels like where,

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[SPEAKER_01]: you get to about pick eight, pick nine, pick 10.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And it is going to be, I have the beholder and it's going to be what you're gonna willing to sign for.

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[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of variables that'll all fit together, but it just seems like over and over.

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[SPEAKER_01]: There are a ton of players who was like,

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[SPEAKER_01]: There may be someone on the phone and it's like, you will you take X amount of money to go here and then they're asking their agent, if I say no, what's gonna happen?

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's like, well, you could go in the next five spots or you could go 20 spots for now.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That's the range of like where it's like, this team really likes you, but the next landing spot may be a good bit later on because

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[SPEAKER_01]: different teams are going to line up these players very differently because there's not as much stratification that feels like.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, right.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Absolutely.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's exactly going to be the case.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's going to be fairly chaotic and I will say like in off the board pick, it won't immediately indicate, hey, this is under slot deal and off the board pick for one team or for a public ranking like us could just be, hey, this is the best player available for this given team.

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[SPEAKER_00]: There's

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[SPEAKER_00]: the talent grouping is that tight and the preferences are going to differ that dramatically.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think where that will be the case, a number of different times on draft day.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Especially because also, again, if you really do feel like, hey, I don't care what the public board says, you know, the consensus boards and all this, our board has this guy here.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And we're not going to pick again for another 30 or 40 spots.

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[SPEAKER_01]: If this is our one shot to take him, this is not the year where you're like, well, but we've got five guys a bit of above him on the board.

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[SPEAKER_01]: This is certainly so we've looked at a couple of outfitters, but there's also some pictures who really do stand out for this and we're going to get to those right after this quick break.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And we're back.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So Carlos, I'll just say, I feel like there's a number of pictures that you could have highlighted for this.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But you picked out Jack Raidlette, a Notre Dame as one of the ones who kind of released it out.

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[SPEAKER_01]: What was it about him?

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think he's just a very polished strike thrower.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I am always drawn to strike throwers that might be a trend.

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[SPEAKER_00]: The next two arms we're going to see moving forward.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But he's never walked more batters than the 8.1% rate he had in 2024.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He now has a three year track record as a full-time starter for Notre Dame.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And he should wind up being the highest drafted Notre Dame pitcher since Aaron

17:34.053 --> 17:42.781
[SPEAKER_00]: But Redell, I think, what stands out to me, he just checks a lot of boxes as a high probability starter and he took a step forward with his stuff this year.

17:43.181 --> 17:50.007
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not sure that he has a single plus pitch, but he has a whole lot of solid average pitches that you could look at in Sarah above average.

17:50.508 --> 17:53.590
[SPEAKER_00]: He's now throwing a fastball that's sitting around 94 miles per hour.

17:53.650 --> 17:57.674
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's closer to average velocity for a right hand starter.

17:58.094 --> 17:58.875
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the other

18:00.376 --> 18:02.877
[SPEAKER_01]: That's someone who's been at VA for a long time.

18:02.897 --> 18:03.577
[SPEAKER_01]: It's crazy.

18:03.637 --> 18:06.698
[SPEAKER_01]: I started VA that have been like he has a really plus fastball.

18:07.138 --> 18:07.418
[SPEAKER_00]: Right.

18:07.499 --> 18:07.739
[SPEAKER_00]: Right.

18:08.119 --> 18:09.179
[SPEAKER_00]: So he gets up to 98.

18:09.799 --> 18:11.920
[SPEAKER_00]: Sitting 94, touching 98 is average now.

18:12.000 --> 18:13.460
[SPEAKER_00]: Crazy is that sounds for a starter.

18:13.941 --> 18:16.081
[SPEAKER_00]: But he also has a lead extension with that fastball.

18:16.101 --> 18:21.283
[SPEAKER_00]: So while it might not be overwhelming in terms of velocity, I don't think the shape is that exceptional.

18:21.303 --> 18:25.524
[SPEAKER_00]: Do you think his ability to get down the mound could potentially help it play up?

18:25.565 --> 18:26.585
[SPEAKER_00]: He also has a real.

18:27.205 --> 18:29.127
[SPEAKER_00]: solid assortment of secondaries.

18:29.167 --> 18:37.476
[SPEAKER_00]: He's got a slider that is maybe his best secondary this mid-80s gyro breaking ball that he throws with a lot of confidence to write his and lefties.

18:38.177 --> 18:39.158
[SPEAKER_00]: He's got a cutter.

18:39.298 --> 18:43.002
[SPEAKER_00]: He's got a change up a curve ball that are all effective pitches.

18:44.704 --> 18:54.148
[SPEAKER_00]: And when I see profiles like this, like Redell, you look at their overall college track record, you see them maintaining their strikes while finding more strikeout stuff.

18:54.188 --> 18:58.769
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, previously, like coming into this year, I would say this weekend, Miss was a huge question with the drill.

18:58.789 --> 19:02.651
[SPEAKER_00]: He'd never struck out more than 20% of the batters that he struck out in 2025.

19:02.711 --> 19:09.033
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, he maintained the 6.2% walk rate that he had a year ago, which is a great strike rate, a great walk rate for a pitcher.

19:09.153 --> 19:12.354
[SPEAKER_00]: And then he added 12 percentage points of strikeout rate.

19:12.674 --> 19:13.575
[SPEAKER_00]: I just have a lot of

19:14.415 --> 19:16.557
[SPEAKER_00]: I feel a lot of safety with this pitching profile.

19:16.697 --> 19:24.365
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that even if he's just, quote unquote, just a back-end starter, you'd be pretty happy with that outcome at a certain point in the draft.

19:24.405 --> 19:38.118
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think he has been a consistent up here named for that reason, and just me personally, when I'm viewing him with a number of other pictures who maybe have more obvious risk factors, I quite like the well-rounded nature of this profile as how I'd phrase it.

19:38.945 --> 19:43.988
[SPEAKER_01]: Also, I mean, there are guys who you're like, okay, you're really projecting on how he fills out.

19:44.008 --> 19:47.110
[SPEAKER_01]: And I'll Jack Radyle is listed again, listed weight.

19:47.651 --> 19:51.993
[SPEAKER_01]: Second largest pitcher, six foot five, two, 60, two, 50, I should say.

19:52.434 --> 19:56.576
[SPEAKER_01]: Second largest pitcher in the, I would say the top like 40, 45 range for us.

19:58.303 --> 20:00.664
[SPEAKER_00]: It's 100 days the other one or call them a fourth week.

20:01.284 --> 20:02.124
[SPEAKER_01]: It's home in Boarthwick.

20:02.304 --> 20:02.565
[SPEAKER_01]: 666.

20:02.805 --> 20:03.385
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

20:03.845 --> 20:04.065
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

20:04.785 --> 20:16.349
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, so 10626235, another small dude himself, but I would say that, like, it does stand out, like, okay, just an effective tailor-rapes, another guy we can be talking about here.

20:16.389 --> 20:17.350
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I almost picked him.

20:18.030 --> 20:20.211
[SPEAKER_01]: It's six foot five, listed 200.

20:20.251 --> 20:23.012
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's a little bigger than 200 right now, but he's not too 50.

20:23.852 --> 20:26.673
[SPEAKER_01]: So like you are talking about also a guy who kind of has that,

20:27.690 --> 20:32.272
[SPEAKER_01]: bring the innings to me and has shown that has shown that at Notre Dame as well.

20:32.632 --> 20:43.898
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, he's thrown 53 innings in 2024, 70.1 innings in 2025, 87 innings in 26, one one thing that came out and I'll just like tease one of the stories that's in our draft preview magazine.

20:44.658 --> 21:02.792
[SPEAKER_00]: We really wanted to take a look at how teams were evaluating and developing high school pitchers compared to college pitchers, and one of the elements of that, one of the differences in those two profiles that I'm most intrigued by, because I think you could have two opposite takeaways, is like the idea of having a fresh arm versus a proven innings eating arm.

21:03.313 --> 21:11.599
[SPEAKER_00]: I think there is something to the survivorship bias of college pitchers who have just been healthy and thrown for year after year with no injuries.

21:11.639 --> 21:12.040
[SPEAKER_00]: I think there's

21:13.144 --> 21:14.765
[SPEAKER_00]: I have a lot of comfort with that.

21:14.785 --> 21:20.127
[SPEAKER_00]: And I may be lean closer to that than the Olesstica Fresh Arm who hasn't thrown a lot of pitches at this stage.

21:20.468 --> 21:21.388
[SPEAKER_00]: But I can go back and forth.

21:21.428 --> 21:26.250
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think if you were a fan of like, hey, survivorship bias, you want your pitchers to have thrown a lot of innings.

21:26.270 --> 21:29.192
[SPEAKER_00]: You want them to be equipped and ready to handle the volume of pro ball.

21:29.832 --> 21:33.654
[SPEAKER_00]: I would imagine Jack Ridell would be near the top of your list in terms of guys who have proven they can do it.

21:34.288 --> 21:38.192
[SPEAKER_01]: I go back and forth, but I will say kind of along your lines, like, okay, a couple things.

21:38.452 --> 21:48.321
[SPEAKER_01]: One, when you have guys who don't have innings because they've already been injured, that's one that we know is, again, it's not disqualifying, but it is a risk factor.

21:48.601 --> 21:49.201
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's one.

21:49.722 --> 21:50.162
[SPEAKER_01]: And two,

21:51.283 --> 21:53.164
[SPEAKER_01]: I really, we had a stretch.

21:53.324 --> 21:55.365
[SPEAKER_01]: It's now 10, 15 years ago.

21:55.445 --> 22:16.334
[SPEAKER_01]: We had a stretch where there was this like, I felt like five year, six year span from like 08 to like 13, 14, maybe even 15, where there was this trend of like back when you were still, you know, a high school player yourself, but there was this trend of like, let's get this fresh-armed college reliever.

22:17.174 --> 22:18.396
[SPEAKER_01]: And now we're going to start them.

22:19.277 --> 22:24.322
[SPEAKER_01]: And the thought was, is that, hey, there's, you know, they don't have that many mileage on their arms.

22:26.024 --> 22:28.227
[SPEAKER_01]: And yeah, it didn't often work out.

22:28.327 --> 22:31.290
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not saying it never worked up, but it didn't often work out.

22:31.310 --> 22:32.832
[SPEAKER_01]: And if you say, why is like, well,

22:34.442 --> 22:42.746
[SPEAKER_01]: To kind of go back to this whole, you know, the whole thing of like, why do we, why do you have, why would short stops go higher than like, first basement and out filters?

22:42.806 --> 22:52.432
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like, most college relievers who are pitching as relievers were not pitching as relievers because when they walked in the door, who was like, you're the best guy we got here.

22:52.792 --> 23:00.176
[SPEAKER_01]: There was always some kind of reason like delivery, control, durability, something that meant we're going to put you in this role, not that role.

23:00.376 --> 23:00.576
[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

23:00.736 --> 23:02.137
[SPEAKER_01]: And to go back to what you're saying, like,

23:03.253 --> 23:09.919
[SPEAKER_01]: I get it, like there are guys who absolutely are fresh arm because they haven't gotten to what they need to be.

23:10.419 --> 23:11.921
[SPEAKER_01]: And some of those guys really do develop.

23:12.461 --> 23:18.667
[SPEAKER_01]: But there is also something for the pitcher who's already shown it and basically shown that they can handle a workload.

23:19.067 --> 23:20.628
[SPEAKER_01]: Because that's the key part of this.

23:21.009 --> 23:21.489
[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks, though.

23:22.350 --> 23:23.931
[SPEAKER_01]: That's on the college side.

23:24.211 --> 23:26.013
[SPEAKER_01]: But there's a couple of high school arms as well.

23:26.093 --> 23:26.814
[SPEAKER_01]: This I would say,

23:28.127 --> 23:44.233
[SPEAKER_01]: If I was going to say who's your number one guy who fit this from what, you know, from discussions we had a slack and all earlier today, we said that Blake Bryant, the right hander from Douglas Georgia is another is one who really did stand out as like, as you went up up your right.

23:46.088 --> 23:50.910
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and I feel like this also came across to various editors.

23:50.950 --> 23:57.272
[SPEAKER_00]: We had looking over these reports, like we had multiple people who reached out and like, like Brian, this kid sounds super interesting.

23:57.712 --> 24:04.234
[SPEAKER_00]: And I wouldn't be surprised if we move them up on a future update because really in this range, again, there's not a ton of separation.

24:04.434 --> 24:07.496
[SPEAKER_00]: And like Brian just checks a ton of boxes.

24:07.736 --> 24:07.996
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean,

24:08.836 --> 24:18.239
[SPEAKER_00]: This is the prototypical projection right-hander starter package, and he has, I think everything you would want from a player of that profile.

24:18.639 --> 24:21.740
[SPEAKER_00]: Great printers frame, six with five, 180 pounds.

24:22.281 --> 24:24.821
[SPEAKER_00]: He's lean, athletic, moves well in the mound.

24:25.462 --> 24:34.765
[SPEAKER_00]: It's one of the better arm actions in the class, according to a lot of the people that I'm talking to who are really getting in the weeds on deliveries and arm actions at a granular level.

24:35.465 --> 24:39.589
[SPEAKER_00]: He repeats well, it's a balanced landing and finished, it's not a ton of effort.

24:40.350 --> 24:48.218
[SPEAKER_00]: So to start with, it's a great frame with a lot of the checkpoints you're looking for, for a pitcher who's going to be able to throw above average or better strikes moving forward.

24:49.175 --> 24:52.656
[SPEAKER_00]: On top of that, he's got a very deep and polished pitch mix.

24:53.316 --> 24:56.357
[SPEAKER_00]: The fastball is a low 90s heater with some arm side life.

24:56.477 --> 24:57.637
[SPEAKER_00]: It's been up to 96.

24:59.117 --> 25:04.959
[SPEAKER_00]: Everything I've heard is that he held that velocity really well throughout this season when he dominated his competition in Georgia.

25:05.459 --> 25:12.160
[SPEAKER_00]: He's got multiple quality breaking balls with, I think, maybe a separator for many high school pitchers in general and in this class.

25:12.520 --> 25:14.581
[SPEAKER_00]: He has two distinct breaking balls already.

25:15.041 --> 25:16.161
[SPEAKER_00]: He's got a slider in the low 80s.

25:19.502 --> 25:40.420
[SPEAKER_00]: Both of those have above average spin rates and above average potential and then he rounds out the mix with a mid 80s change up that has a chance to be at least average I think with more reps He does not throw the change up as much as the fastball and the two breaking balls, which is fairly common But I think what we've seen from that pitch It at least has me confident that it can become at least an average offering

25:41.100 --> 25:41.741
[SPEAKER_00]: moving forward.

25:41.761 --> 25:54.079
[SPEAKER_00]: So you put all of that together and I think you're looking at a starter that has potential mid rotation upside and a player that I was reminded of when I was writing this report is actually Aaron Watson.

25:55.038 --> 25:56.779
[SPEAKER_00]: from the 25 class.

25:57.339 --> 26:09.162
[SPEAKER_00]: I feel like they have a lot of similarities, just with the frame, the ease of delivery, the polish pitch mix, the strike throwing, and Aaron Watson is doing a really nice job in the complex for the reds.

26:09.202 --> 26:13.743
[SPEAKER_00]: They just drafted him in the second round at 51 overall.

26:14.364 --> 26:17.564
[SPEAKER_00]: We have Blake Bryant, currently ranked 51 right now.

26:17.664 --> 26:18.925
[SPEAKER_00]: So I just think in terms of,

26:19.665 --> 26:26.250
[SPEAKER_00]: total package how they look like my excitement about the profile after doing the sort of fine tuning and a report updating.

26:27.531 --> 26:29.952
[SPEAKER_00]: Man, I think he could go in the first round.

26:31.293 --> 26:39.419
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think there's a huge difference between him and like a Jensen Hirsch corn who we have ranked a little bit in front of him.

26:39.459 --> 26:48.025
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe you'd say that like there is a little bit more dynamism with the slider which Jensen Hirsch corn and what you saw at the area because it was super electric with him and like

26:48.825 --> 26:53.226
[SPEAKER_00]: The athlete on the basketball court, but like like Bryant is a really standout athlete as well.

26:53.286 --> 27:05.490
[SPEAKER_00]: So I I really like this profile and I guess it wouldn't be a Carlos Closodraft podcast if I'm not raving about a high school right-handed pitcher since I just You have to maintain the brand.

27:06.290 --> 27:06.630
[SPEAKER_00]: I do.

27:06.650 --> 27:09.131
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, you know, you definitely have to maintain the brand.

27:09.231 --> 27:11.712
[SPEAKER_01]: So when you are like

27:13.382 --> 27:25.270
[SPEAKER_01]: when you're looking at these high school arms again like so there's a group of them here I think one of the other tough parts of this is is that you don't always see them like it's kind of figuring out the

27:26.646 --> 27:29.747
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of these guys, you don't see them at their best every time, obviously.

27:29.987 --> 27:34.169
[SPEAKER_01]: You don't see college guys at the best every time, but I was saying there's more variance with high school arms.

27:34.429 --> 27:34.629
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

27:34.769 --> 27:42.092
[SPEAKER_01]: So, then you've got to figure out to some extent, don't you like, okay, how much weight do you put on the guy who's more consistent?

27:42.692 --> 27:49.635
[SPEAKER_01]: How much weight do you put on the guy who, and his best is he may be a little bit better, but it doesn't get to his best very often.

27:49.855 --> 27:50.195
[SPEAKER_00]: Right.

27:50.787 --> 27:58.956
[SPEAKER_01]: How much the guy who like, you know, we have guys this year, I would say who really kind of started slow and then ramped up, that's other guys who kind of hit the ground running.

28:00.706 --> 28:26.451
[SPEAKER_00]: I think for teams that specific challenge you're talking about is very real for the high school pitchers because it requires a lot more time, like theoretically every, every scout on your staff could go watch every college start, whether that's video live or after the fact for high schoolers, you kind of have to be there at the field, maybe you'll get snippets of a player's outing on video on Twitter or something else like that, but you really have

28:30.612 --> 28:32.139
[SPEAKER_00]: If you're a high school pitcher and you're consistent.

28:32.985 --> 28:40.530
[SPEAKER_00]: You're probably going to have a more like consistent bit of feedback throughout a scouting department for people who looks matter.

28:41.210 --> 28:46.154
[SPEAKER_00]: Versus maybe a more erratic high school pitcher who maybe the air scout goes in and sees him really good.

28:46.214 --> 28:47.975
[SPEAKER_00]: You get your cross checker in the next sounding.

28:48.455 --> 28:54.039
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not finding the strike zone and so you have maybe a wider range of opinions just based on your live looks.

28:54.439 --> 29:00.103
[SPEAKER_00]: But I do think like Bryant was pretty locked in and consistent the entire spring of that has to help him, I would imagine.

29:00.723 --> 29:10.207
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, speaking of a little bit more difficult to get looks, um, you also highlighted Sean Duncan, a Canadian pitcher.

29:10.267 --> 29:24.054
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, let's point out, as we always do, like there is not something where you have to always go to Canada to see a very good look at Canadian, you know, that's something that, you know, they spot Canada as a really good job of making a really good job.

29:25.755 --> 29:43.965
[SPEAKER_01]: But Sean Duncan is a British Colombian left hander who's again been a name bit someone I remember first seeing his name, you know, hearing from about from Ben I think a couple of years ago now, but what is it about Sean Duncan that kind of stood out to you as you wrote his report up?

29:44.440 --> 29:51.482
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I was just checking back to see our kind of high school ranking history of Duncan, because he has been a prominent player in this class for a while now.

29:51.562 --> 29:58.185
[SPEAKER_00]: Back in February of 2025, so more than a year ago now, we had him as a top 30 high school player in the class.

29:58.205 --> 29:59.265
[SPEAKER_00]: I believe he's still in that range.

29:59.285 --> 30:03.846
[SPEAKER_00]: We have him as a top 60 player overall, so essentially a similar sort of range.

30:03.966 --> 30:04.967
[SPEAKER_00]: But Duncan, I think,

30:05.887 --> 30:16.937
[SPEAKER_00]: is another pitcher who, after I came away writing this, watching more video digging into our notes, I just really was impressed with the pitchability and the projection indicators that he has.

30:17.617 --> 30:24.083
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a left-handed pitcher and contrast with Brian Radell, the two of their arms we talked about on today's podcast.

30:24.123 --> 30:29.267
[SPEAKER_00]: He's super young for the class, which is a common theme for basically every top Canadian prospect.

30:29.308 --> 30:33.131
[SPEAKER_00]: It feels like he turns 18 just two months before the draft.

30:33.711 --> 30:37.253
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a frame that you can dream on, 6 foot 3, 180 pounds, very lean.

30:38.653 --> 30:43.856
[SPEAKER_00]: While there is a bit of length to the arm action, I think the delivery overall is quite impressive.

30:43.996 --> 30:44.916
[SPEAKER_00]: He repeats it well.

30:44.996 --> 30:45.716
[SPEAKER_00]: It's very loose.

30:45.776 --> 30:46.317
[SPEAKER_00]: It's balanced.

30:46.457 --> 30:54.680
[SPEAKER_00]: Another athletic, easy finish with dunk in like Bryant and while it's not a complete four pitch mix, it is a really polished three pitch mix.

30:54.740 --> 30:57.081
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a fastball that sits in the low 90s, he's been up to 95.

30:59.240 --> 31:26.146
[SPEAKER_00]: While that fastball again, it feels crazy to say for a high school pitcher, especially at lefty touching 95, they are lefty in a pitcher's in this classroom throwing 6-7 miles per hour harder again and saying to say, but even if it's not observed present velocity for Sean Duckin, I think between the physical projection that is quite obvious with his frame and the high spin nature of his fastball and just his ability to collect whiffs with it to the degree

31:27.606 --> 31:30.949
[SPEAKER_00]: last summer and really threw out his high school career.

31:31.790 --> 31:38.856
[SPEAKER_00]: I feel like even if it's never a plus velocity pitch, I feel like it will be a consistent swing and miss fastball.

31:39.076 --> 31:51.748
[SPEAKER_00]: It's also a fastball that he can establish to both sides of the play and maybe what stood out the most to me about Sean Duncan while digging deep on him and finalizing this report was his ability to manipulate a breaking ball.

31:52.268 --> 31:57.512
[SPEAKER_00]: He's got a upper 70s low 80 slider that he can mix and match really well.

31:57.793 --> 32:03.517
[SPEAKER_00]: He shows the ability to shorten the pitch up when he's throwing it for maybe strikes earlier in counts.

32:03.537 --> 32:05.939
[SPEAKER_00]: He can expand it and use it as more of a chase offering.

32:06.980 --> 32:08.902
[SPEAKER_00]: So whether it's a breaking ball that just has

32:09.562 --> 32:15.647
[SPEAKER_00]: Sort of this slurvy in between shape or in the future he separates them out to make two distinct breaking balls.

32:15.687 --> 32:26.035
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he's going to have this spin capacity in the field to do that and then he also sells a good change up in the mid 80s that I think again is going to be a potential above average offering.

32:26.695 --> 32:27.396
[SPEAKER_00]: So for Duncan.

32:28.573 --> 32:32.376
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, maybe none of it is above average right now.

32:32.556 --> 32:35.118
[SPEAKER_00]: I think projecting into the future, which is what we're trying to do.

32:35.178 --> 32:40.282
[SPEAKER_00]: You're looking at a left-in a pitcher who could have above average stuff across the board with above average strikes.

32:40.963 --> 32:44.765
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, those are the kind of pitching packages that I really like.

32:45.546 --> 32:46.567
[SPEAKER_00]: He's committed to Vanderbilt.

32:46.827 --> 32:49.189
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll see how tough of a sign he is.

32:49.289 --> 32:57.475
[SPEAKER_00]: But again, I think like Bryant, this is a player who could go 30 spots in front where we have him ranked and it shouldn't be surprising

32:59.579 --> 33:09.246
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, before you wrap up, I should at least throughout the question, because we're, we've talked about five guys who've, as you wrote them up, you're like, oh, is there anyone that comes to mind?

33:09.446 --> 33:19.834
[SPEAKER_01]: Not like, oh, that's guys not a draft prospect, but someone who came to mind that as you wrote him up, you're like, I hadn't really fully synthesized how many risk factors this player has.

33:21.068 --> 33:30.702
[SPEAKER_00]: The one who stands out to me that I think there is going to be a disparity in maybe how teams are viewing the player and what the performance shows.

33:30.802 --> 33:34.928
[SPEAKER_00]: If you've watched the season, the one that I struggled with the most is Aiden Robbins.

33:36.089 --> 33:41.570
[SPEAKER_00]: At Texas, I mean, his season was tremendous.

33:41.630 --> 33:44.971
[SPEAKER_00]: His OPS was a top 10 mark among SEC hitters.

33:45.471 --> 33:51.592
[SPEAKER_00]: His in conference OPS, I believe, was a top five mark among SEC hitters, just looking at conference play.

33:52.632 --> 33:58.333
[SPEAKER_00]: He looks the part six foot two, two and five pounds, center field profile, he's got power.

33:59.173 --> 34:02.574
[SPEAKER_00]: I do think Robbins has a very well rounded tool set.

34:04.238 --> 34:12.221
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think that there are just more hit-risk questions that I have with his profile after diving in.

34:13.701 --> 34:18.323
[SPEAKER_00]: He has a career 17% strikeout rate, which is not a surprising number.

34:18.383 --> 34:21.364
[SPEAKER_00]: He hit well over 300, which is kind of what you want these guys to do.

34:22.464 --> 34:26.086
[SPEAKER_00]: But when I was digging into the bad of ball data and just the feedback from Scouts,

34:27.163 --> 34:29.751
[SPEAKER_00]: he misses a lot more than you'd expect given those numbers.

34:29.952 --> 34:33.925
[SPEAKER_00]: And so I wonder when he's challenged at the next level.

34:35.128 --> 34:38.089
[SPEAKER_00]: about contact against secondaries in particular.

34:38.349 --> 34:41.590
[SPEAKER_00]: I wonder about pitch recognition with him moving forward.

34:42.470 --> 34:54.473
[SPEAKER_00]: And because he's also a player that most of the scouts we've talked to, think he's a better fit for a corner than center field, I do think there starts to be pressure on your offensive profile pretty significantly.

34:54.633 --> 35:01.495
[SPEAKER_00]: And so if you're moving off center field, now you're left field or let's say, and maybe the hit tool is not quite as explosive as your performance indicates.

35:02.817 --> 35:03.738
[SPEAKER_00]: I would have some questions.

35:03.798 --> 35:14.386
[SPEAKER_00]: So I would imagine he's going to be a very split camp player for a lot of reasons, but those are the ones that I kind of dug into and just raise my eyebrows a little bit about.

35:14.406 --> 35:18.169
[SPEAKER_00]: Because he scares me more than you might think, given what he showed us this year.

35:19.030 --> 35:19.230
[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

35:19.450 --> 35:21.432
[SPEAKER_01]: It's something where, again, it's like

35:22.710 --> 35:26.793
[SPEAKER_01]: His resume is his resume to some extent, but this is also part of his resume.

35:26.933 --> 35:33.837
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a little bit harder to dig into, but like when you don't have this good of a contact rate, we don't have this good as a zone contact rate as other players.

35:34.558 --> 35:36.939
[SPEAKER_01]: That is part of your resume as well.

35:37.200 --> 35:39.941
[SPEAKER_01]: And so, again, it'll be interesting to kind of dive in.

35:40.262 --> 35:42.823
[SPEAKER_01]: We've got it still got another month of this movie.

35:42.843 --> 35:43.724
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, we do.

35:44.184 --> 35:48.207
[SPEAKER_01]: It's hard to believe, because again, most of the players now crazy enough, more than most years,

35:49.352 --> 36:00.658
[SPEAKER_01]: When we roll around to Omaha, not many of our top 30, top 40 prospects in the game are still going to be planned, you know, um, so.

36:00.718 --> 36:03.240
[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, which of those, which of those played did any of those players?

36:03.340 --> 36:14.986
[SPEAKER_00]: You changed your opinion on or get more excited about as we were going through them, or if there was one, maybe who stood out, I would say Jack Riddle, it does fit into kind of that perfect kind of back of the first round

36:18.603 --> 36:28.696
[SPEAKER_01]: I think one thing that really intelligent, draftnik fans, understandably,

36:29.670 --> 36:37.038
[SPEAKER_01]: get a little derailed on because of the way, a lot of it, I would say, because of the way that this is portrayed on draft day at all.

36:37.058 --> 36:48.169
[SPEAKER_01]: And then like, no one is compared on draft day on the broadcast and all, to a, this guy could be a fourth-ounce winner, right?

36:48.209 --> 36:50.652
[SPEAKER_01]: Because again, it's best case scenario, ceiling's all that.

36:51.715 --> 37:01.022
[SPEAKER_01]: And I do feel like a lot of times, again, you've talked about this on the podcast before, I think that doing the redress like you do is really useful.

37:03.304 --> 37:12.672
[SPEAKER_01]: And basically what's really useful about it, is realizing like if he ends up being a number four, number five starter,

37:13.835 --> 37:29.917
[SPEAKER_01]: and you knew that if you could lock that in you'd be going to middle or back of the first round you do it do it not that there's not going to be someone taken after is going to be better than that because there will be 100% promise guaranteed almost but there's also going to be a ton of guys.

37:31.311 --> 37:45.136
[SPEAKER_01]: The thing that stands out for doing this you have for a year and also like when you're doing like when we get rolling on mid season like we're doing the updates for teams right you just mentioned like oh you know the red second round pick and he's doing you know pretty well so far.

37:46.537 --> 37:47.978
[SPEAKER_01]: One of the things that is.

37:49.458 --> 37:56.741
[SPEAKER_01]: Remarkable about doing this though is the guys who you're like oh I remember that dude a year ago let me check what he's doing and then you're like.

37:58.783 --> 37:59.584
[SPEAKER_01]: This is horrible.

37:59.764 --> 38:00.404
[SPEAKER_01]: Like right.

38:00.804 --> 38:07.909
[SPEAKER_01]: Players who were considered legitimate top 75, top 100 prospects coming into the draft.

38:08.469 --> 38:14.553
[SPEAKER_01]: And then they get the pro ball and they never have a minute of success.

38:14.613 --> 38:18.276
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not like they hit double A and the they got derailed.

38:18.296 --> 38:18.756
[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

38:18.796 --> 38:24.980
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm talking they hit a ball or they hit the rookie leagues and it was like this is just too much for that.

38:27.106 --> 38:46.241
[SPEAKER_01]: It's sad because again, like, you know, we want prospects to succeed, but some of these players, it's like, you didn't have to go back and look and go, okay, what was it that, what was, where was the mis evaluation, right, because useful for us to, right, like, and.

38:47.451 --> 38:52.795
[SPEAKER_01]: There are absolutely, sometimes it's okay, a guy was hurt for five years and then released.

38:52.815 --> 38:54.996
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's like, okay, how do you evaluate that, right?

38:55.036 --> 38:58.239
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, okay, you get especially an RN on the public sphere.

38:58.559 --> 38:58.739
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

38:58.959 --> 39:00.380
[SPEAKER_01]: You don't have access to all the medicals.

39:01.601 --> 39:09.267
[SPEAKER_01]: But when someone gets drafted, you know, a pitcher gets drafted in the second round and has an ADRA for their career and gets released after three years.

39:09.567 --> 39:14.650
[SPEAKER_01]: Or a hitter has a 40% strikeout rate and never makes it above a ball and gets released.

39:14.710 --> 39:15.531
[SPEAKER_01]: And it was a prominent pick.

39:15.551 --> 39:16.692
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like, okay,

39:18.278 --> 39:25.666
[SPEAKER_01]: There may have been concerns, but obviously it wasn't something where that was an expectation because that player would have never been picked where they were.

39:26.127 --> 39:32.494
[SPEAKER_01]: And so that's where I go back to like, if Zion rose, we're talking about how he had like Trevor content, right?

39:33.293 --> 39:49.643
[SPEAKER_01]: In a best case scenario, Trevor Condon is a really good regular who, like you said, let's say that gap power even develops a little bit further and you're talking about an athletic outfielder who can hit for average with some power and that's a really valuable, you know, that's okay.

39:49.983 --> 39:52.045
[SPEAKER_01]: That could be a three four-war type player.

39:52.505 --> 39:52.725
[SPEAKER_00]: Right.

39:53.635 --> 40:02.640
[SPEAKER_01]: But if Trevor Condon ends up developing into more of a guy, like, I know he's got to sit down, but like he's just a, he's a TJ Friedel type, right?

40:02.760 --> 40:03.021
[SPEAKER_01]: Who?

40:03.761 --> 40:05.042
[SPEAKER_01]: Just got to sit down by the rest.

40:05.082 --> 40:11.946
[SPEAKER_01]: But it's had a couple of two more seasons and the big leagues is kind of a part time everyday center fielder, a little bit of injury issues and all that.

40:13.081 --> 40:17.244
[SPEAKER_01]: If he became that, that would be a pretty solid outcome.

40:17.304 --> 40:19.625
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, that's where I think even as you are.

40:19.645 --> 40:30.752
[SPEAKER_00]: I think at some level, like, if you are a major leader of any capacity, it's almost like always a draft win depending on the range, but like most of these guys will not be major leagueers.

40:30.772 --> 40:38.057
[SPEAKER_00]: So if you can have a regular role, whether that's essential, right, if you just get a cup of coffee, yeah,

40:39.718 --> 40:58.998
[SPEAKER_01]: Right, if you are a guy like one of the ways I always love to put it because again, it all ties back to the rule five, but if you are not, if you're a first ground pick and when the rule five protection, your roles around your team looks at you says, no, we're going to leave you on the board, okay, then that was a bad pick like I would just start right there.

41:00.567 --> 41:07.838
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not a lot to spend to say that our first run pick is going to take a 40-man roster spot.

41:08.439 --> 41:10.823
[SPEAKER_01]: And if that player then eventually makes it up.

41:11.404 --> 41:13.327
[SPEAKER_01]: OK, to take an example, I'm not trying to pick on him.

41:13.367 --> 41:13.447
[SPEAKER_01]: But

41:14.293 --> 41:29.405
[SPEAKER_01]: If Jacob Barry ends up getting 200 plate appearances over three or four years, that doesn't change the fact that if you pick that high in the draft and you take a guy and then you leave them like and you kind of again, he's not really a prospect at this point.

41:29.585 --> 41:31.606
[SPEAKER_01]: That's that's not what you want to do.

41:31.787 --> 41:32.007
[SPEAKER_00]: Right.

41:32.967 --> 41:42.974
[SPEAKER_00]: I was speaking of like figuring out what we missed on that one will always be a shocker because I actually think he is like looking now at data that we didn't have at that time.

41:43.434 --> 41:43.714
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay.

41:43.834 --> 41:43.934
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

41:43.954 --> 41:44.074
[SPEAKER_00]: David.

41:44.114 --> 41:44.255
[SPEAKER_00]: David.

41:44.275 --> 41:44.475
[SPEAKER_00]: David.

41:44.495 --> 41:44.675
[SPEAKER_00]: David.

41:44.695 --> 41:44.855
[SPEAKER_00]: David.

41:44.875 --> 41:44.995
[SPEAKER_00]: David.

41:45.015 --> 41:45.255
[SPEAKER_00]: David.

41:45.275 --> 41:45.716
[SPEAKER_00]: David.

41:45.756 --> 41:45.996
[SPEAKER_00]: David.

41:46.036 --> 41:46.276
[SPEAKER_00]: David.

41:46.336 --> 41:46.736
[SPEAKER_00]: David.

42:05.440 --> 42:06.821
[SPEAKER_01]: knowing what we know now.

42:07.721 --> 42:17.006
[SPEAKER_01]: I just don't think he would have even like, like, it was, there wasn't anything horrific about it.

42:17.647 --> 42:20.128
[SPEAKER_01]: There just wasn't anything good, right?

42:20.288 --> 42:21.609
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, okay.

42:22.049 --> 42:22.269
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.

42:22.709 --> 42:22.950
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.

42:23.130 --> 42:25.951
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm trying to help me here was Carl's was his 22 or 23.

42:25.971 --> 42:26.051
[SPEAKER_01]: His

42:34.128 --> 42:42.894
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, like, he was like an 85 mile an hour average EV in a 104-9 gift for a slugging don't have a position.

42:44.575 --> 42:44.795
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

42:45.536 --> 42:46.176
[SPEAKER_01]: That doesn't work.

42:47.417 --> 42:50.699
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, to just give it an example of that in comparison, right?

42:52.627 --> 42:53.908
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll bring up my guy, Drew Burris.

42:53.948 --> 42:58.791
[SPEAKER_01]: But Drew Burris has questions about like how much impact we will have and all that.

42:58.851 --> 43:03.573
[SPEAKER_01]: 92.1 mile an hour, you know, EV and 109, 90.

43:03.613 --> 43:05.154
[SPEAKER_01]: So five miles an hour harder.

43:05.474 --> 43:09.296
[SPEAKER_01]: And the question of Burris is, is he gonna be a center fielder or is he gonna be a corner?

43:09.776 --> 43:12.758
[SPEAKER_01]: With Barry, it was like, he's a first-based man.

43:12.978 --> 43:23.062
[SPEAKER_00]: Since we're in the weeds here on college hitter exit velocity data, this is one I'll just throw into the pod and throw it you because it is a propaganda for my guy, Derek Curiel.

43:23.402 --> 43:25.202
[SPEAKER_00]: Do you know who he hits the ball harder than?

43:26.803 --> 43:27.683
[SPEAKER_00]: Many years drafts.

43:28.824 --> 43:32.585
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, one in particular, and maybe I use this for Ben because this is Ben's guy.

43:32.945 --> 43:37.007
[SPEAKER_00]: He hits the ball harder than AJ Grossia, who no one seems to have power concerns with.

43:37.983 --> 43:39.824
[SPEAKER_00]: That one always is jarring to me.

43:40.104 --> 43:42.284
[SPEAKER_00]: I think what you're grossing is 90% of the TV is just a little bigger.

43:42.304 --> 43:51.047
[SPEAKER_01]: I would say Coriel is very much like Zion Rose, just more extreme version of it, which is, okay, you hit them all hard.

43:52.068 --> 43:55.849
[SPEAKER_01]: But he doesn't have the ability to hit the ball hard.

43:56.369 --> 44:02.891
[SPEAKER_00]: I think there is a lot of, this is maybe, I don't know how much I know the least you want to get, but I think it's fun to talk about.

44:03.231 --> 44:04.992
[SPEAKER_00]: I think people far too often,

44:07.499 --> 44:17.085
[SPEAKER_00]: Put hitters in holes based on how they're hitting as amateurs or young players when we know that learning to elevate and hit for powers, one of the last things that come.

44:17.786 --> 44:26.232
[SPEAKER_00]: And we see this so consistently with prospects who are taking massive jumps, whether it's the power that comes later or the elevation that comes later.

44:27.092 --> 44:27.512
[SPEAKER_00]: I still.

44:28.453 --> 44:34.760
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, JJ weatherhole versus Travis Bizana, that was the question, like, JJ weatherhole does not elevate and pull the ball in the air.

44:34.820 --> 44:35.881
[SPEAKER_00]: Travis Bizana does.

44:35.921 --> 44:37.403
[SPEAKER_00]: That was big questions that trainable.

44:37.463 --> 44:38.424
[SPEAKER_00]: Can you project on that?

44:38.464 --> 44:39.706
[SPEAKER_00]: You just say the guy who can do it now.

44:40.607 --> 44:41.968
[SPEAKER_00]: I think people are far too.

44:43.283 --> 44:54.914
[SPEAKER_00]: like they put hitters in boxes too frequently when I do think a lot of this stuff is approach oriented or maturity oriented and so that's one of the reasons I'm bullish on Creel, but I understand that everyone follows me on that whole.

44:54.935 --> 44:59.659
[SPEAKER_01]: This is an interesting thing because it's like okay, I would say that that meant that like you could

45:00.680 --> 45:02.901
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll let you set so much of this as I was the holder.

45:02.921 --> 45:11.645
[SPEAKER_01]: On one hand, I can make the argument that Bazana has already demonstrated a skill that is a key big league skill, right?

45:11.665 --> 45:12.605
[SPEAKER_01]: Which is, right?

45:12.725 --> 45:14.846
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, because Bazana wasn't doing that.

45:14.906 --> 45:25.331
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, when I say this, someone's going to hear me and say, oh, you're saying that everyone should basically start their swing around their shoe tops, and integrate somewhere, basically above their head.

45:25.631 --> 45:26.572
[SPEAKER_01]: That's not what I'm saying.

45:26.912 --> 45:27.232
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah.

45:28.165 --> 45:43.923
[SPEAKER_01]: The ability when you get a baseball to drive to basically get your body into it and have a swing that hits that in the air to your pull side right is a skill that plays in the big leagues we know this right for sure.

45:44.044 --> 45:45.385
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I guess my point is that like.

45:46.318 --> 45:58.902
[SPEAKER_00]: It is not, I think sometimes because we have so much data now, we view traits as sticky and unchanging when they are, like, even though Travis was on himself, like, he used to be a cont, I'm just hitting the ball.

45:58.922 --> 45:59.962
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm always making contact.

46:00.562 --> 46:06.344
[SPEAKER_00]: He learned what the pictures he could drive, why it was valuable, and how to lay off this stuff that he could just flare over.

46:06.364 --> 46:07.284
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

46:07.645 --> 46:10.385
[SPEAKER_01]: And so what I would say is, so I can look at that both ways though.

46:10.485 --> 46:13.726
[SPEAKER_01]: So in one hand, I can say that he's demonstrated a skill

46:16.271 --> 46:24.920
[SPEAKER_01]: On the other hand, I could also just as easily say, he's much more maxed out because, yeah, I think that's the key.

46:24.980 --> 46:30.506
[SPEAKER_00]: It's all a question of like, what can you project on and what do you have to project on?

46:30.666 --> 46:32.208
[SPEAKER_00]: What do you have currently now?

46:33.137 --> 46:35.640
[SPEAKER_00]: versus like what can you become?

46:35.840 --> 46:42.508
[SPEAKER_00]: And like if you think you'd rather just have the sure thing, you don't need to project because he already has all these tools and traits that play.

46:42.969 --> 46:47.855
[SPEAKER_00]: That could be one thing, then the exact opposite and you could be like, he's maxed out now as a player.

46:47.895 --> 46:49.056
[SPEAKER_00]: He's already optimized.

46:49.797 --> 46:51.538
[SPEAKER_00]: how are we going to make him better at the next level?

46:51.558 --> 46:54.579
[SPEAKER_00]: I think those are such interesting and scary questions.

46:54.759 --> 46:59.221
[SPEAKER_01]: This is where the evaluation really comes in because like I can argue the flip side both ways, right?

46:59.301 --> 47:12.127
[SPEAKER_01]: Like Justin Crawford is an example of a player who is never going to have as much impact at the big league level as he potentially could if he doesn't learn to hit the ball in the air more consistently.

47:12.843 --> 47:16.048
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's still not particularly, you know, that's still not like, but he's a rookie.

47:16.088 --> 47:25.182
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a big league rookie, but so you could say, again, looking at it, both ways, you could say, hey, if he, when he does watch out, he's got another gear there.

47:25.403 --> 47:25.603
[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

47:25.643 --> 47:26.685
[SPEAKER_01]: What do you could say?

47:28.467 --> 47:31.050
[SPEAKER_01]: He's been playing pro ball now for a number of years.

47:31.871 --> 47:33.593
[SPEAKER_01]: And he's not able to, right?

47:33.633 --> 47:37.637
[SPEAKER_01]: And take taking example of a guy who was a top- 61% ground ball rate right now.

47:38.218 --> 47:48.349
[SPEAKER_01]: Austin Martin, Austin Martin was a player who was drafted where he was with the idea that with everything he had as a hitter.

47:49.030 --> 47:53.253
[SPEAKER_01]: He would be able to hit the ball in the air to his pull side more consistently.

47:53.593 --> 47:56.295
[SPEAKER_01]: And once he did that, he would be a more complete player.

47:56.895 --> 48:01.238
[SPEAKER_01]: The twins tried it for a number of years, and it would not work.

48:01.658 --> 48:04.280
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe some other team, I don't know, but I will tell you this.

48:04.901 --> 48:08.163
[SPEAKER_01]: Austin Martin didn't become a useful big leader.

48:09.131 --> 48:14.173
[SPEAKER_01]: Until everything that was kind of put on him as we hope this was what he will be coming out of the draft.

48:14.693 --> 48:17.714
[SPEAKER_01]: We hope he's going to step up the defensive spectrum.

48:17.734 --> 48:23.535
[SPEAKER_01]: He's going to be a guy who's going to be a better second baseman than we think, center-fielder than we think.

48:24.076 --> 48:24.856
[SPEAKER_01]: Ria's right now.

48:24.896 --> 48:26.536
[SPEAKER_01]: There's athletics and room to develop.

48:26.816 --> 48:30.237
[SPEAKER_01]: He's going to hit them on the air and show more power than he's ever showed at Vanderbilt.

48:30.638 --> 48:31.318
[SPEAKER_01]: All these things.

48:32.348 --> 48:34.630
[SPEAKER_01]: And in and out, those were dead ends.

48:34.830 --> 48:39.233
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, as long as they tried to do that, he wasn't a productive player.

48:39.633 --> 48:49.640
[SPEAKER_01]: It was when they stopped trying to ask him to be a premium defense supplier and more of kind of a versatile player who can play adequately at multiple positions.

48:49.960 --> 48:59.267
[SPEAKER_01]: It was when he said, I think he was a David Lorella story with him from Fangress or not long ago, where he's basically said, I had to come to the point where I was like, no, this is the hitter I am.

48:59.367 --> 49:01.208
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm gonna stop trying to do all this stuff.

49:01.628 --> 49:03.689
[SPEAKER_01]: and then he became a useful hitter.

49:04.029 --> 49:10.290
[SPEAKER_01]: But again, what with less upside and ceiling, less impact in what they hoped for.

49:10.410 --> 49:15.811
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's an imperfect example of a guy with a top pick who you couldn't do it.

49:16.211 --> 49:24.513
[SPEAKER_01]: Because that's where I'm saying like, I could look at it both ways because on one hand, you absolutely, like, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

49:25.832 --> 49:34.340
[SPEAKER_01]: has had times where he is just this monster who hits for average in Homer's and all that.

49:34.380 --> 49:38.844
[SPEAKER_01]: And there's other times where it's like, his swing is geared to line driving round balls.

49:39.084 --> 49:42.647
[SPEAKER_01]: And if you're a Vladimir Guerrero sized and you're geared to

49:43.368 --> 49:46.489
[SPEAKER_01]: Flying drives and ground balls, you're not as impactful.

49:46.529 --> 49:50.431
[SPEAKER_01]: And so like there's again, like I love about this, there's no guarantee on this.

49:50.671 --> 49:52.371
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, that was a quite a digression there.

49:52.391 --> 49:53.612
[SPEAKER_01]: We had a little wrap up.

49:53.652 --> 49:57.233
[SPEAKER_00]: Hopefully it was interesting to more people than just us, but yeah, the thing is fun to talk through.

49:57.712 --> 49:58.653
[SPEAKER_01]: It was fun to talk to.

49:58.733 --> 50:02.917
[SPEAKER_01]: So that is the Baseball America draft podcast for this week as always.

50:02.977 --> 50:04.939
[SPEAKER_01]: Go over to BaseballAmerica.com.

50:05.319 --> 50:08.642
[SPEAKER_01]: Carlos has a mock coming before too long if I remember correctly.

50:08.762 --> 50:09.523
[SPEAKER_01]: Yep.

50:09.923 --> 50:11.605
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll have a staff draft coming after that.

50:11.625 --> 50:17.490
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll probably get everyone on to the, we'll probably try to do that the same way we did last one.

50:17.510 --> 50:20.493
[SPEAKER_01]: We're just like, well, it's just real and let's record it and that will be,

50:21.233 --> 50:27.621
[SPEAKER_01]: You can enjoy the video version, the podcast version of that as well, coming up, you know, not too long after that.

50:28.161 --> 50:30.224
[SPEAKER_01]: But for Carlos, I'm Jay Jay.

50:30.404 --> 50:31.145
[SPEAKER_01]: So long, everybody.