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[SPEAKER_00]: Hey everybody, JJ Cooper Carlos Clauseo, Baseball America Draft podcast.

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[SPEAKER_00]: As we are every week, we are here to talk to get you ready for the 2026 MLB draft.

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[SPEAKER_00]: As we record this 30 days away, 29 days by the time you're listening to this, but speaking of that, there is a 30 things to know, piece that Carlos wrote that is up at Baseball America.com.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Check that out.

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[SPEAKER_00]: There is a lot going on.

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[SPEAKER_00]: There is a lot going to happen over the next few weeks.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to do today.

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[SPEAKER_00]: The big thing we're going to do today is you saw mock draft that Carlos put out on Monday.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And Carlos said at the time, it's like, hey, here's what I'm hearing.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's still a lot of chalk.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Today, we're going to approach it though.

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[SPEAKER_00]: That doesn't mean that things are locked in, right?

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think we have the same seven picks as the last time.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But that doesn't mean in any way that, like, oh, that's how this is going to play out.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Today, we're going to do a mock draft to kind of an alternate mock and ultra-realli mock.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But all of these are plausible.

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[SPEAKER_00]: All of these are things that there are rumors out there that this is reporting that Carlos has heard.

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[SPEAKER_00]: These aren't something where we're going to say, hey, this guy who has never been linked to this team who's not really in any chance going to be a top 10 picks.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's going to be in the top 10 to this to examine it.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Now, we're looking at this from, you could take this as a plausible, but just we're going to take the lesser likelihood cases, right?

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[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to get into that.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But before we do that, let's do lay out a little bit.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So we're now less than a month away for the draft, finally.

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[SPEAKER_00]: As those of us who grew up under the old schedule, this right now, it would be a very different experience.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We would be analyzing the draft at this point in many years, because it's going on during college, real series a lot of times, or super regionals, or things like that.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We do have things coming up.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously college-world series will be going on starting the day for you know Friday the day you're listening to this if you got on the first day.

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[SPEAKER_00]: That'll be going on for a couple of weeks.

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[SPEAKER_00]: There are still prospects who will absolutely what they do there will be very important.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But I did want to ask you Carlos, the flip side of that is we also have the draft combine coming up June 22nd through 24th.

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[SPEAKER_00]: which obviously is open to a lot more players than are available to play in the college world series, that can play in the college world series.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But how important and in what ways is the draft combine important for teams and players?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I would say it's beyond just the draft combine as well, but the reason the combine is important is because you're getting a lot of high priority players and will be teams go around and they invite the top 300 players that they kind of collectively decide on to invite to the combine a lot of those players will come and do on field workouts that itself is very useful getting.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Trackman data, athletic testing data for high school players, college players, who maybe don't have the largest sample, it's useful for players who maybe dealt with injuries throughout the season and didn't get a full spring being able to come back and show that your healthy is useful.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So you'll have full pin sessions, you'll have batting practice, you'll have in and out.

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[SPEAKER_01]: fielders showing what they can do in the infield, alphitters, making throws, catchers popping behind the plate.

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[SPEAKER_01]: There's a high school game that always happens.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And then probably the most important from the combine from the team's perspective is just the opportunity to spend a lot of time actually talking with the players.

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[SPEAKER_01]: All the teams have sweets booked out at Chase Field where essentially as the combine is going on, the teams are all cycling different players through players that they're interested in.

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[SPEAKER_01]: the decision makers and some teams bring pretty big scouting staffs into just chat with the players, ask them questions, try to get a better feel for what they're like, what their mentality is, if there are any issues or questions that have come up with a player throughout their career or throughout the spring, those can be addressed there.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And then,

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[SPEAKER_01]: I guess also the medical that happens with the combine players have the opportunity to go through medical processes and if they do that all that information gets sent to all the teams and obviously that is super important as well.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And doing that, again, there is a push pull here and doing that also ensures as a player that if you are drafted, like you've essentially covered yourself for, if a team then says there's something medical lies or whatever, right, in the way.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Because you have a threshold that if you've gone through the medical, what is the threshold?

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[SPEAKER_01]: 6-year 75% I don't remember the number.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But there's a threshold where you are guaranteed to get.

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[SPEAKER_01]: If they take you, you've submitted the medical, they have to offer you at least that minimum.

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[SPEAKER_01]: If you've gone through the medical process where you haven't, then they don't.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So that's coming up obviously there will still be some players.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I would say especially players who are injured during the season or whatever you will have some going on to summer college leagues from the college side.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe on some of the high school side too.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We've seen this now with players from who've just graduated high school.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's a very good way to kind of

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[SPEAKER_00]: show what you can do, you know, to go out there and kind of, we have enough time now.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So, so that's coming up as well.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So it's not over by any stretch.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's not like, okay, everyone's now just gonna shut it down here until the, till the draft rolls around.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But,

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[SPEAKER_00]: There's obviously also a lot of analysis, a lot of lining up of things that have already been gathered.

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[SPEAKER_00]: There's going on now.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And today, like we said, we're going to jump in and do kind of a podcast mock draft.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And we really are, this is kind of an alt mock draft.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I would say, like Carlos, put one out, check it out, baseballamerican.com this week.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But what we're doing here is,

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[SPEAKER_00]: when I would describe this is these are all again.

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[SPEAKER_00]: These are plausible options.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And one, first domino falls, everything else starts to kind of change as well.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So let's start with obviously the white socks are our pick number one.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Diving in, you said like, I think you were on the hot sheet show this week, you said.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And I know we've had conversations about this.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Your reporting is, is that UCLA shortstop or actualowski who's been our number one prospect kind of coast to coast, remains the most likely choice here.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But at the same time, as you would expect, it is also not something where he is the put it down right at an ink, number one pick by any stretch of that situation.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Right, it doesn't feel as locked in as maybe Adley Rushman was in 2019 when he was the equivalent kind of consensus top player in the class that rock is today.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I think part of that is because Grady Emerson has maybe narrowed the gap between the two this spring everything that I've been hearing from teams may be indicates that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Just the margin between those two players are a little bit closer and then I think the third player who's in consideration by everything that I've heard from people around the game is that Von Lackey at Georgia Tech the season that he's just had has kind of put him in the top tier prospects as well.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I get the sense that

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[SPEAKER_01]: The most likely candidates for the White Talks for one are Rock, then Grady, then Van Lacky, in that order.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I would be pretty stunned if it was someone who is not one of those three players at the top of this year, and I think basically the entirety of the time we've been doing mock drafts.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Rock Chilowski just feels like the most likely name, and so he's been the pick.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It feels

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[SPEAKER_01]: The mocks always struggle with it, too, because if you have one pick repeatedly for a team, I think that can sometimes signal to readers that we are increasingly certain.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That's the thing.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That's not what we're saying.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That's not the case.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's just you have to pick who you think is most likely.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I don't want to pivot to someone who I think is less likely just to shake things up.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But I think this is what's going to be useful about this exercise.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We can kind of do an alternative mock and say, hey,

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[SPEAKER_01]: We're hearing this, this could happen.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So if the White Talks take, Gradient Emerson, who let's plug in for number one for the White Talks here, shortstop out of Texas, I think this could legitimately happen.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, the case for Gradient Emerson, we can get into closer to the draft, but like,

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[SPEAKER_01]: Ultimately, I think the simplest case for him is, hey, this is the best pure hitter in this year's class.

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[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of confidence in great Emerson's hitting ability.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The hit tool is the most important tool for position players.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And it's not like he's lacking in other tools as well.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He does not have...

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[SPEAKER_01]: Elite secondary tools.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He is not the sort of outlier athlete that a Jacob Lombard is or a Bobby Witt Jr. was.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He doesn't have that present power that you can look at with rock now.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But all of his tools beyond the hit tool, I think you could say are solid average or above average across the board.

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[SPEAKER_00]: To go back to that 2019 draft, right, where it was Adly at the top, the player, and again, we're talking about an infielder versus an outfielder, but I would say that when you say that, like it reminds me when we were talking about Riley Green back then, right, where Riley Green was a very good hitter.

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[SPEAKER_00]: That was the thing that everyone was very comfortable about.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Well, so you're going to be a centerfielder, oh, who knows?

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[SPEAKER_00]: He may end up being a corner, which he ended up being a corner.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

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[SPEAKER_00]: it was the bat that was basically made him a top of the draft prospect.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Again, I don't want to make that that is a allusion, not a perfect analogy because Great Emerson, when you look at it, I actually like that better because I thought where you were going to go is Bobby, which you are like kind of the one two.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I think people are

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[SPEAKER_01]: kind of drawing that parallel and I don't, I don't view them as similar.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I view them similar in the sense that there is a one A and one B with a college player in a high school player, but I think the Riley Green hit forward hit confidence safe high school profile is the sort of profile you get here with great Emerson.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's not the it's not the typical like

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[SPEAKER_00]: The Bobby, again, Bobby with Junior's, CJ Abrams was in the same class there, where you had two guys who were like, these guys are big league short stops, right?

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[SPEAKER_00]: Write it down.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And then it was, how much are they going to hit?

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[SPEAKER_00]: That was a crazy assounds as it sounds right now with Bobby with Junior.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But that was the question.

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[SPEAKER_00]: The question with Bobby with Junior at the time, everyone will even the speed, the athleticism, the defense, the power, the arm, all of that was there, it was, will he hit enough to get to that?

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[SPEAKER_00]: The answer is exactly.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he wound up hitting enough.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, that they were hitting, so I'm gonna miss questions.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Anything like gradient and Bobby Witter kind of inverted prospects where it's like, they the hit tool.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I don't remember.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, Turmar Johnson had a very highly crazy title.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I guess he has a title.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It looks like he has a title.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It looked up to it largely.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And again, it's a little bit interesting because Riley Green has become a little bit more I would say power oriented as a pro than maybe we thought, but you know, but at the same time, the hit tool is working.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And again, I hate to throw Corbin Carroll's another guy in there because Corbin Carroll's more athletic, but the other thing about Corbin Carroll is it's also hard to just vary, like, great Emerson and Riley Green at least a little bit more similar as far as, like, Corbin Carroll is the kind of the shorter version of all of this, where you felt really good about the head tool, but the thing I would also say was this, okay, let's look at this from the white socks perspective.

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[SPEAKER_00]: If they took Radie Emerson one, like one thing that does jump out is if Emerson ends up being a significantly better bat than say a Rocholowski or let's say a Von Lackey, those are the three guys at the top, then this could end up making a ton of sense because you don't go wrong by picking a, if Radie Emerson ends up being an above average big league hitter with above average power.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And when you say not like slam dunk plus glove short stop, we're also not talking about that this guy's a D.H. or anything like that either.

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[SPEAKER_01]: No, I think he's more likely to play short stop than not.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I just think it's you're basically looking at a solid average or a tickable of average defender versus a potential go glove winner.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I definitely don't think Brady is someone who's like, oh, we probably going to have to slide him to third or second really quickly.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think he has all the tools to stick there for sure.

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[SPEAKER_00]: other thing that I can't help but think about when we talk about great Emerson here is is that I do feel like with the most successful top of the draft high school players.

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[SPEAKER_00]: In the 2020s we're kind of recalibrating kind of the speed of these guys moving up.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I feel like if we were having this conversation in 2016, right, I would have a little less gray, you know, but

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[SPEAKER_00]: If we were having it then, we would be saying, well, the downside of this though is is, let's say Rocholowski, if you're taking him, he's gonna be in the big leagues start of 28, because, again, everyone was moving slower.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But start of 28, maybe the tail into 27, and gravy Emerson, you're probably talking about 29, 20, 30, you know, kind of, where there was a little bit longer runway it took for these guys.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think that that's necessarily as true, especially with the polished bat.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Like, I'm not saying that we're going to see Brady Emerson and the big leagues, you know, in opening day 2028, I'll allow what we see what kind of riff in this year, basically.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But what we may see is, like, I could absolutely, if the bat is as good as we think it is,

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[SPEAKER_00]: I could absolutely see Lowe being no challenge for him next year, and then he's quickly in high A.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And if you're in high A by mid-season next year, it's not crazy to think that some point in 28.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Again, if you stay healthy, everything gruses.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I guess what I'm saying is is the high school college.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Long-term versus short-term.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think is maybe a little bit different at the top of the draft than we thought it was a few years ago.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I wish more teams would think this because it definitely feels like there are a lot of teams that think they just have to take college players because they can push them quickly, but I agree with you.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think the elite high school players, especially hitters, maybe wouldn't have this conversation for pitching prospects, but the elite high school hitters in a class.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I do think can move quickly.

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[SPEAKER_01]: They've shown

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[SPEAKER_01]: in the past.

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[SPEAKER_01]: There are a lot of examples that have done that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: If you're not getting the immediate big league, jump that a guy like Rock Chilowski could make, but I don't imagine the great Emerson is guy who's going to need to toil away in a low-minor for a long time.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So if you're worried about the ETA, great he would be among the the quicker assumed high school.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I always say much more than some of the other names we're going to talk about today.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, so the rays are sitting here at two, and I would say in some ways a dream scenario for them, not that they would not be thrilled to take Emerson, I believe if you were sitting there too, and they would also be so lucky.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We have a clear top tier, top three tier, but I also think that if you're sitting here at the rays and you can see that Rochalowski's still available, do they then say, okay, that's our, we're thrilled with how this all shook out.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think so, Rock Chilowski would be the pick for the race in the scenario.

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[SPEAKER_01]: For me, I mean, it's the best player in the class, still viewed as the best player in the class, but most people in the industry that you talk to, even though we've talked about how the margins are maybe a little bit more narrow, or we've gotten a little bit closer.

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[SPEAKER_01]: This spring, but...

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[SPEAKER_01]: You're looking at a slam dunk, generational type, college, shortstop prospect, we haven't seen a player like this.

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[SPEAKER_01]: In a least a decade, you can go back more.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think Rochelowski is probably a better prospect at the same stage, as guys like Dan's B. Swanson, Alex Breggman just feels like he's got more of a toolset on maybe both sides of the ball, at the same stage.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It just feels like

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[SPEAKER_01]: If you fall into your lap, you just probably take him and don't think too much about it.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I would wonder, like...

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[SPEAKER_01]: We don't have this happening in this scenario, but I really would be interested in if the rays would prefer gradie or rock if they got to choose from both of them, because I have just heard the rays so connected to gradie Emerson and it does feel like they love my dead eating middle infielders, high school short stops, like do they love them enough to take a guy like gradie over.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Roger that's in the last one one scenario.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I would like to see like actually like get an opportunity to see who they would pick from

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[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, I think that rock chalice, this is like, maybe the least interesting pick of the entire alternate mockier, because I do think maybe what this could emphasize, it seems highly unlikely that rock slides if he's not the first overall pick.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Like, I just can't envision a scenario where he slides out of the top three for sure.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And it just feels like, rock chalice, he would be picked before volk in the scenario as well.

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[SPEAKER_00]: That is, again, like, I will say we're having an interest discussion when we get to, and when Slack uses board.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Like the selling point for Chelsea, what you just laid out, right?

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[SPEAKER_00]: That you have the longest track record here of anyone that we're going to talk about as far as performing at an elite level.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He was our college player the year last year.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He, we kind of say now because we've already announced it.

17:07.989 --> 17:15.473
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not our college employer of the year this year, but he did have a, I would say a very similar season to the one he had last year.

17:16.334 --> 17:18.495
[SPEAKER_00]: I wouldn't say really better, but I also would say worse.

17:18.535 --> 17:20.156
[SPEAKER_00]: It was very similar to what it was.

17:21.797 --> 17:21.977
[SPEAKER_00]: And,

17:22.897 --> 17:30.000
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, you have, like, with him as opposed to the other college guys that we're talking about, you do have this longer track record.

17:30.020 --> 17:34.782
[SPEAKER_00]: He was an elite prospect, a very well considered prospect coming out of high school.

17:35.483 --> 17:39.964
[SPEAKER_00]: He's done nothing to just wait that in any way, shape or form, in his time at UCLA.

17:40.325 --> 17:47.588
[SPEAKER_00]: He leaves UCLA as one of the most storied players in Bruins history, and a program that's had some very good players.

17:48.308 --> 17:51.109
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that one's a, again, I think if you're

17:53.807 --> 17:58.992
[SPEAKER_00]: The only thing I would say here if you're the raise is you have a lot of short stops.

17:59.432 --> 18:00.453
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not saying.

18:00.813 --> 18:01.194
[SPEAKER_00]: Who cares?

18:01.234 --> 18:11.143
[SPEAKER_00]: I will say, if you think that Von Lackey has a chance to be every bit as good as Rochelowski, the one thing I'll say that they've never had is that they've never had a catcher, but we'll cover that.

18:11.723 --> 18:18.990
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll get back, I promise you guys when we come back to this break, Von Lackey is going to go off the board at some point, and we'll find out if that's going to be at three right after this quick break.

18:21.603 --> 18:22.024
[SPEAKER_00]: And we're back.

18:22.544 --> 18:28.071
[SPEAKER_00]: So, okay, Emma Sinshaloski, the top two guys on our board are off the board.

18:28.953 --> 18:30.655
[SPEAKER_00]: Here we roll to pick three with the twins.

18:31.476 --> 18:32.717
[SPEAKER_00]: Is this an easy decision?

18:32.778 --> 18:33.699
[SPEAKER_00]: Is this a tough decision?

18:34.175 --> 18:36.877
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, in the real mock draft, it would be an easy decision.

18:36.997 --> 18:37.737
[SPEAKER_01]: It would be a lucky.

18:37.797 --> 18:46.463
[SPEAKER_01]: But I do think that I've heard enough talk about Drew Burris being a model darling in the twins or a model heavy organization.

18:46.743 --> 18:50.185
[SPEAKER_01]: And you mentioned that Rochilowski is the best track record of anyone who will talk about.

18:50.345 --> 18:51.546
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know that that's the case.

18:51.726 --> 18:52.607
[SPEAKER_01]: You can ask Drew Burris.

18:53.087 --> 18:56.770
[SPEAKER_01]: Drew Burris, if you take his three-year track record, his last three years.

18:57.610 --> 19:07.821
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't necessarily think they blow everyone out of the water, but it's pretty convincing Drew Burris' offensive production over his last three years of anyone that is available in this class.

19:08.461 --> 19:14.708
[SPEAKER_01]: And I do think that on some team's models Drew Burris is sitting in a premium because if you're

19:17.070 --> 19:19.831
[SPEAKER_01]: extended track record, which a lot of them do.

19:20.431 --> 19:29.435
[SPEAKER_01]: If your model really values the ability to put the ball in the air with consistency, which a lot of them really do, Drew Burris is going to show up great.

19:29.515 --> 19:32.456
[SPEAKER_01]: And he is not the classic sort of,

19:33.476 --> 19:42.000
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, scouts don't like him, but the models do pick because Drew Burris is a centerfielder with legitimate tools he can run, he can throw, he has power.

19:43.380 --> 19:55.106
[SPEAKER_01]: I do think there's a real scenario where Drew Burris winds up going in the top five on draft day, even if he is not consistently mocked there, and might not even be the top option for any of the teams there.

19:55.906 --> 19:57.887
[SPEAKER_01]: If things happen, things get a little bit weird.

19:58.747 --> 20:02.589
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you'd be a really appealing player for for any of its teams in this range.

20:03.049 --> 20:05.471
[SPEAKER_00]: We talked about track work because one of the things I think is worth bringing up.

20:06.191 --> 20:15.856
[SPEAKER_00]: None of the guys that we are talking about college wise at the top of this class have, and partly this is just an after-effect of how the game has changed a little bit, but

20:16.796 --> 20:42.168
[SPEAKER_00]: None of them have the elite summer would that record that I would say is often a pro part of the has been in the past part of this pro thought right like for main reason is most of these guys have not played a whole lot they did play team USA but team USA last year was a very you know is as a much it was a small schedule right and and when they did play they did not play well no in it no in this.

20:43.458 --> 21:01.474
[SPEAKER_00]: There's not a lot of cape games or, you know, other summer college league games on any of these guys scheduled and by the way Drew Burris von Lackey didn't hit in their very limited and I would say that Rocksilowski I mean, it was a little bit better, but none of these guys were like, oh, this guy was the star of the cape, this guy was the star of the Northwoods league or anything like that.

21:01.714 --> 21:02.955
[SPEAKER_00]: We're seeing less of that now.

21:03.015 --> 21:08.460
[SPEAKER_00]: And by the way, I don't know if it's as predicted because we're also seeing much less pitching in those leagues that we used to

21:09.057 --> 21:28.980
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, the Summer Legs were definitely a lot different than they were 10 years ago, but I do think to your point and you know that we if anyone listening to this does that I am a a Drew Burris believer Like Drew Burris is freshman year is the best year that any of these guys that we're going to talk about have had he just had the misfortune of that his best year he's been very good

21:29.360 --> 21:33.003
[SPEAKER_01]: And I don't, yeah, this, I think this gets overplayed significantly.

21:33.083 --> 21:35.325
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, everyone's like, oh, you need to improve your career.

21:35.425 --> 21:43.351
[SPEAKER_01]: If you have a year like Drew Burst did as a freshman or you hit, you have a 1,300 OPS, you hit 25 home runs, you get on base more than half the time.

21:44.092 --> 21:53.859
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, if your expectation cannot have the nuance to not, you don't always build on historic seasons, but he has been a metronome of consistency here.

21:54.260 --> 21:56.702
[SPEAKER_01]: OPS over a 1,100 every single season,

21:57.402 --> 22:02.288
[SPEAKER_01]: 16 or more home runs every single season, he's hit over 300 every single season.

22:02.308 --> 22:12.459
[SPEAKER_01]: There are even stretches this year, I was like, oh, this is like the Drew Burris down year, early on in conference, who was struggling a bit, and it's still like his numbers are in impeachable at this day.

22:12.819 --> 22:16.683
[SPEAKER_00]: And I would also point out with that that basically, like, let's just get ahead of it right now.

22:17.789 --> 22:23.954
[SPEAKER_00]: If Landon Harris didn't come close next year to having the year he had this year there as an estate, congratulations.

22:24.074 --> 22:29.198
[SPEAKER_00]: Because his year this year is again, he's a soft day with historic college baseball season.

22:30.279 --> 22:31.660
[SPEAKER_00]: It's hard to do better than that.

22:31.720 --> 22:34.983
[SPEAKER_00]: You're just hoping to do similar to that again, done the road.

22:35.383 --> 22:35.904
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, agreed.

22:36.504 --> 22:40.888
[SPEAKER_00]: So we're sitting here at Pick 4 and I would lay out that in this alternate universe,

22:41.968 --> 22:55.116
[SPEAKER_00]: The giants are probably like the camera pans to the giant straff room and they're hiving, they're jumping up and down like because I can envision a better scenario.

22:55.136 --> 22:57.857
[SPEAKER_00]: We've talked about how much money the giants have to spend and all that.

22:58.258 --> 23:02.400
[SPEAKER_00]: All the, oh, are they going to figure out how they get rocked to four, which is you laid out very unlikely.

23:02.860 --> 23:03.121
[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

23:03.721 --> 23:04.381
[SPEAKER_00]: But in this case,

23:05.642 --> 23:09.205
[SPEAKER_01]: In this scenario, we're going to have Von Lackey go for it to the Giants.

23:09.505 --> 23:17.352
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think there are a couple of things that are interesting with this because one one scenario that was floated to me with the Giants in preparation for the mock draft that went out on Monday.

23:17.392 --> 23:24.238
[SPEAKER_01]: The actual mock was like, hey, it's probably unlikely that they float a rock chalowski to four or a greedy Emerson to four.

23:24.318 --> 23:26.039
[SPEAKER_01]: But if they really want whoever is third,

23:28.000 --> 23:37.748
[SPEAKER_01]: in the mock or in the actual draft like they might have the bonus pool money to make the difference between pick three and pick four, maybe that helps them.

23:37.788 --> 23:43.553
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the other element here that makes it even more interesting if you're a giant fan and you're like, please let us like slide someone to four.

23:44.134 --> 23:45.135
[SPEAKER_01]: The twins are a team.

23:46.032 --> 23:46.733
[SPEAKER_01]: one of two teams.

23:46.793 --> 23:48.153
[SPEAKER_01]: It's the two in the Rockies.

23:48.654 --> 23:49.314
[SPEAKER_01]: They're not cheap.

23:49.574 --> 23:50.355
[SPEAKER_01]: They're well, they're cheap.

23:50.395 --> 24:01.603
[SPEAKER_00]: When it comes to this, they are, they are, they are unilaterally disarming themselves when compared to, they are not taking advantage of something that 20, eight by the way, the lead here.

24:02.163 --> 24:04.425
[SPEAKER_01]: The twins are one of two teams that has never spent.

24:05.380 --> 24:06.602
[SPEAKER_01]: over their bonus pool.

24:06.622 --> 24:10.807
[SPEAKER_01]: So what basically happens in the draft is you can go up to the full 5% overage.

24:11.147 --> 24:13.631
[SPEAKER_01]: The only thing you pay on that overage is extra taxes.

24:13.651 --> 24:14.852
[SPEAKER_01]: There are no penalties beyond that.

24:15.212 --> 24:17.195
[SPEAKER_01]: Most teams push close to the 5% overage.

24:17.475 --> 24:18.637
[SPEAKER_01]: It's the accepted state.

24:18.657 --> 24:19.378
[SPEAKER_01]: I've not done that.

24:19.618 --> 24:19.798
[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

24:22.603 --> 24:23.024
[SPEAKER_01]: Fair enough.

24:23.324 --> 24:35.516
[SPEAKER_01]: I just I pushed back on the cheap in the draft narrative a lot because every team spends their full pool And I will say for the twins They were picking 5th overall on 23 They were picking at the back of a top tier of the class.

24:35.536 --> 24:42.823
[SPEAKER_01]: They gave Walker Jenkins an overslot deal To lock him up so it's not like the twins can't possibly go over slot They've never done that.

24:42.883 --> 24:45.165
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just the totality of their bonus pool.

24:45.525 --> 24:46.486
[SPEAKER_01]: They probably could

24:47.247 --> 24:48.048
[SPEAKER_01]: spend a little bit more.

24:48.068 --> 24:51.372
[SPEAKER_01]: So that maybe is an element that could make this more likely.

24:51.512 --> 25:03.447
[SPEAKER_01]: I still think as I mentioned in the actual mock draft, it seems very unlikely for any of the top three to not go top three, but this would be a tremendous win for the giants if you want to secure one of the elite talents of the draft here.

25:03.787 --> 25:23.741
[SPEAKER_00]: what i'm just saying here okay i'll explain my cheap comment yes you're spending millions of dollars in the draft right however if you have something that is allowed and is a slight competitive advantage because obviously having more money to spend gives you a chance to sign another player for a little bit over slot in the day three whatever it is

25:24.666 --> 25:36.109
[SPEAKER_00]: And if there are two teams out of the 30 who are like, nope, we don't do that and you say, well, why not the only answer for why not is because it costs money because there's no other penalty to it.

25:36.129 --> 25:39.789
[SPEAKER_00]: You don't lose draft picks down the road, nothing like that happens.

25:40.089 --> 25:47.291
[SPEAKER_00]: All that happens is it does mean that you have to pay more money out both in bonus and

25:51.983 --> 25:53.344
[SPEAKER_00]: It's such a small amount of money.

25:53.504 --> 25:56.666
[SPEAKER_00]: It's well worth it if the draft line is up the way we want it to.

25:57.387 --> 26:02.310
[SPEAKER_00]: And if you're in, I hate to say it, but if you're in a boat with the Rockies, you and the Rockies are the only thing you haven't done this.

26:02.870 --> 26:04.972
[SPEAKER_00]: That's not a good boat to be in, is what I'm trying to say.

26:05.412 --> 26:06.433
[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

26:06.613 --> 26:09.015
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, let's talk a little bit about Lacky though.

26:09.135 --> 26:10.476
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, cause we haven't really talked about him.

26:11.216 --> 26:13.458
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously here, we have Buster Posey.

26:14.353 --> 26:28.898
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, hit Buster Poseys team drafting Von Lackey who, it's a great draft, I would say in the first day how this now today is is what draft they will be like this year, but in day one for college catchers, right?

26:28.938 --> 26:32.299
[SPEAKER_00]: There are a we're going to hear a number of names go off the board.

26:44.758 --> 26:47.509
[SPEAKER_00]: What makes Lacky the clear number one out of that group?

26:47.529 --> 26:49.797
[SPEAKER_00]: And put some in this what we've talked about kind of this top tier.

26:50.750 --> 27:03.660
[SPEAKER_01]: I think Lackey entered the season with a reputation as the best defensive catcher or at least one-air, one-be in some order with writer Helphric entering the year, compared to Helphric, who is also in the top two tier of college catchers.

27:04.060 --> 27:12.526
[SPEAKER_01]: His contact ability is far greater than writer Helphric, and he answered the one question of his profile this spring, which was how much

27:19.011 --> 27:23.816
[SPEAKER_01]: this year, the exit velocities were improved, and so now you look at this profile.

27:24.971 --> 27:26.752
[SPEAKER_01]: And there's really not a clear flaw.

27:26.832 --> 27:31.196
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's not a plus runner, but he's a real solid runner who will turn it above average times.

27:31.656 --> 27:33.557
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a really good runner for a catcher.

27:33.597 --> 27:36.579
[SPEAKER_01]: He can play literally every position on the field.

27:36.900 --> 27:42.664
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think if he was not a catcher, he would be a legitimately good prospect at a number of other defensive positions.

27:42.724 --> 27:45.246
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not just like, hey, you can put him there and hide him.

27:46.206 --> 27:52.331
[SPEAKER_01]: He is an outlier athlete on top of being a potential gold glove sort of defender.

27:53.071 --> 27:53.531
[SPEAKER_01]: at catcher.

27:53.551 --> 27:58.872
[SPEAKER_01]: And now you're looking at at least an average hit tool with a above average power potential.

28:00.392 --> 28:08.354
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just a lot to like and I think what I keep coming back to with Von Lackey is he probably provides the most value of any player in this class.

28:09.114 --> 28:16.695
[SPEAKER_01]: If you get little to nothing from him offensively there is a path we've seen in the past Patrick Bailey currently right now is a

28:19.896 --> 28:23.178
[SPEAKER_01]: giving you much offensively because he is the game's best defender.

28:23.198 --> 28:32.083
[SPEAKER_01]: I think Von Lackey has that sort of defensive upside and if he hits, you're looking at like a perennial all-star type player.

28:33.583 --> 28:44.709
[SPEAKER_00]: I do look at him and think if you told me 10 years from now, Von Lackey, of the top guys who go to top five, Von Lackey and up being the best one, like his catcher.

28:44.749 --> 28:45.570
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a lot of risk.

28:46.178 --> 28:51.620
[SPEAKER_00]: There's injury concerns that you have there that I would say are significantly higher than these other guys we're talking about.

28:52.040 --> 28:53.341
[SPEAKER_00]: But it would not surprise me at all.

28:53.361 --> 28:55.202
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, it is amazing to me.

28:55.222 --> 28:57.683
[SPEAKER_00]: We will keep studying this, keep playing out stuff about this.

28:57.723 --> 29:02.285
[SPEAKER_00]: But like, when I've tried to dive into it, I feel like that really, if you,

29:03.225 --> 29:20.233
[SPEAKER_00]: slice away the surface level traditional stat data for both Rochilowski and Bonlaki in 2026 and you go like okay now let's go down to the more analytical data what their contact rates are how hard they hit the ball, you know they're swinging this in the zone all these other things.

29:21.368 --> 29:23.229
[SPEAKER_00]: It's amazing how similar it is this year.

29:23.249 --> 29:27.771
[SPEAKER_00]: They've had underlying years are very similar this year.

29:28.191 --> 29:35.994
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, as you noted before, Rocholowski has a much longer tail behind him of where this is the player he's been.

29:36.014 --> 29:43.437
[SPEAKER_00]: Whereas Bonlacky, it is something where he's had to ramp up to effectively have a very, again, traditional stat wise.

29:43.457 --> 29:45.178
[SPEAKER_00]: He had a better season than Chilowski this year.

29:45.198 --> 29:47.558
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think that's any, like, I don't think there's really an argument.

29:49.059 --> 29:50.921
[SPEAKER_00]: playing better competition generally.

29:51.321 --> 29:53.844
[SPEAKER_00]: He hit like 60 points better in batting average.

29:53.864 --> 29:57.828
[SPEAKER_00]: Had a higher OPP, I believe he had a higher slugging too, you know, all those things.

29:57.948 --> 30:01.652
[SPEAKER_00]: But I would say underlying they had very similar years.

30:02.212 --> 30:07.938
[SPEAKER_00]: The thing for lackey is is what you just laid out, which is if you get that out of a catcher,

30:09.678 --> 30:14.581
[SPEAKER_00]: and he can keep doing this in Pro Ball, that could be really special.

30:15.202 --> 30:19.745
[SPEAKER_00]: However, Adley Rushman, who we just talked about earlier, is a perfect example of this, right?

30:19.985 --> 30:26.489
[SPEAKER_00]: Which is, Adley Rushman and Adley Rushman's best has been exceptional, but he is a catcher.

30:27.129 --> 30:32.153
[SPEAKER_00]: He's also had stretches where he's been hurt and he's played hurt sometimes, where

30:32.793 --> 30:35.234
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like where did Adley Rushman's back go?

30:35.594 --> 30:36.334
[SPEAKER_00]: And it comes back.

30:36.894 --> 30:45.477
[SPEAKER_00]: But it's like he has to be, you just have so many things that are kind of limiting that way because of the grind of that position.

30:45.577 --> 30:49.799
[SPEAKER_00]: And also on top of that, you're going to play fewer games because of that too.

30:49.859 --> 30:53.560
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's an interesting calculus, but very interesting part now.

30:53.800 --> 30:57.361
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, I would say in this scenario, this lays out

31:01.380 --> 31:03.801
[SPEAKER_00]: Drew Burris being kind of a surprise pick at three.

31:04.341 --> 31:16.284
[SPEAKER_00]: You get to the pirates, and it's going to be kind of free form, but there's probably not going to be something other than, okay, who do you like best out of the second tier, right?

31:17.525 --> 31:19.405
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I actually think I have a more interesting thing.

31:19.425 --> 31:21.946
[SPEAKER_01]: I think I'll go for the pirates here in this alternate scenario.

31:22.066 --> 31:27.668
[SPEAKER_01]: One of the nuggets that I thought was super fascinating when doing reporting for this last mock draft was,

31:28.963 --> 31:32.626
[SPEAKER_01]: Alabama shorts up, Justin LeBron as a potential fit for the pirates.

31:33.948 --> 31:48.721
[SPEAKER_01]: I was very surprised, well, I wasn't surprised for the reasons we'll talk about here, but LeBron is a player who does seem to be having the sort of conclusion to his year in the postseason that will be encouraging to teams willing to take a chance.

31:49.902 --> 31:51.464
[SPEAKER_01]: on riskier players.

31:51.804 --> 31:58.749
[SPEAKER_01]: And perhaps no team more than the pirates have been willing to take high-risk profiles in the draft in recent years.

31:58.789 --> 31:59.770
[SPEAKER_01]: They took Connor Griffin.

32:00.170 --> 32:09.538
[SPEAKER_01]: Before he was the Connor Griffin, who was universally regarded as the best prospect in baseball at the corner, if they took, was toolshed, athlete, easy going to hit.

32:09.738 --> 32:10.399
[SPEAKER_01]: Is he going to hit?

32:10.979 --> 32:12.441
[SPEAKER_01]: they took Seth Hernandez.

32:12.481 --> 32:18.210
[SPEAKER_01]: They were willing to take on the risk that comes with the infamous high school right-handed pitcher demographic.

32:18.290 --> 32:19.211
[SPEAKER_01]: One other teams wanted to

32:19.903 --> 32:28.726
[SPEAKER_01]: really nothing to do with that, um, what if they take a shot on the best tool set and athleticism available in the draft at this stage?

32:28.786 --> 32:30.727
[SPEAKER_01]: That is Justin LeBron.

32:30.807 --> 32:35.748
[SPEAKER_01]: I've heard him specifically mentioned as a possibility with Pittsburgh in this scenario.

32:35.869 --> 32:42.511
[SPEAKER_01]: What if it's something where they're saying, hey, like he has equivalent tools and upside to each of the top high school hitters available

32:46.292 --> 32:47.534
[SPEAKER_01]: Jackson Flora is good.

32:47.554 --> 32:48.094
[SPEAKER_01]: We've heard them.

32:48.455 --> 32:50.017
[SPEAKER_01]: We've heard him link to the Pirates quite a bit.

32:50.037 --> 32:54.622
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's probably the most realistic option in this scenario But we're like, hey, we've got a lot of really good pictures.

32:54.662 --> 32:58.767
[SPEAKER_01]: We need to add more infusion of hitting an offense We like to swing big.

32:58.887 --> 33:01.951
[SPEAKER_01]: There is no swing bigger at this stage than Justin LeBron.

33:02.451 --> 33:04.854
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think this would be a tremendously fascinating one.

33:04.914 --> 33:05.154
[SPEAKER_01]: I think

33:05.835 --> 33:13.059
[SPEAKER_01]: I think five for the Pirates is probably one of the earliest realistic even if it's not the most likely landing spots.

33:13.099 --> 33:15.961
[SPEAKER_01]: And so for this exercise, I think it's a really interesting name to put here.

33:16.401 --> 33:17.882
[SPEAKER_00]: It is a fascinating name to put here.

33:17.902 --> 33:19.483
[SPEAKER_00]: And as you set, like Justin LeBron,

33:21.590 --> 33:26.233
[SPEAKER_00]: did not have the season, I would say, overall that you want to see for a guy who is five.

33:26.433 --> 33:29.735
[SPEAKER_00]: At the same time, the trend lines are picking back up.

33:30.036 --> 33:38.461
[SPEAKER_00]: He has been more reliable, defensively like said, there's never been a bunch of a question about his toolset to play there, but he's been much more reliable defensively late.

33:38.521 --> 33:40.182
[SPEAKER_00]: He was a key.

33:40.782 --> 33:45.045
[SPEAKER_00]: He's been the star that Alabama expected him to be and needs him to be.

33:45.085 --> 33:46.206
[SPEAKER_00]: That's why they're in Omaha.

33:46.266 --> 34:03.533
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, JJ, how often have good defensive short stops had struggles in the minors and made a lot of errors in the minors I think I don't really work like I can only come up with about two or three short stops I can say I feel comfortable saying over the past like.

34:04.652 --> 34:12.302
[SPEAKER_00]: many, many years where you say they're unreliability never went away and so that was prevented them from playing shortstop.

34:12.322 --> 34:22.595
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say I think you could say that O'Neill Cruz, like you could say other things, but I would say that O'Neill Cruz's unreliability at shortstop was a limiting factor of him at shortstop, because he made

34:23.295 --> 34:45.087
[SPEAKER_00]: Two mayors like in a different way that like when people can play not early day like crews And it's like yes, as a 22 year old early fail crews just made an error on a play that no one else would try to make Those are the kind that go away Very few like again errors at the big league level you just don't have a whole lot of short stops You're like if the balls hit to them, I don't know if it'll make the play that just isn't part of the game that

34:46.107 --> 34:47.948
[SPEAKER_00]: Teams can really drill on that.

34:48.488 --> 34:53.990
[SPEAKER_00]: But this is also fascinating because again, I know that we're not talking about that again.

34:54.471 --> 34:55.771
[SPEAKER_00]: They might be addressed not about need.

34:56.231 --> 35:01.554
[SPEAKER_00]: But we are talking about in this scenario, you are drafting a short stop at five and you have

35:02.440 --> 35:10.967
[SPEAKER_00]: Basically, the most cornerstone of cornerstone short stops, locked up on your team into the 2030s.

35:11.407 --> 35:12.848
[SPEAKER_00]: And I would say, cool, bring it on.

35:12.968 --> 35:29.801
[SPEAKER_00]: If Justin LeBron's what you think he is, and he's your second basement, because again, I will say, I don't think, even if let's say that he's 5% better than Connor Griffin at short stop, this is a little bit of something where when your face of the franchise is already established there, you don't go like,

35:31.043 --> 35:36.945
[SPEAKER_00]: Conner, we think LeBron might be like a little bit better than you, we need you to move.

35:36.985 --> 35:38.365
[SPEAKER_00]: That's not what you normally do.

35:38.526 --> 35:51.510
[SPEAKER_00]: But if Justin LeBron is what teams hope he could be, he would be an impact player, again, whether that's... Yeah, I mean, the simplest way to underline it with Justin LeBron is if he hits, he has a chance to be a star, a legitimate star.

35:52.710 --> 36:00.393
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that is a profile that while there's tons of hit risk, significant hit risk, I wouldn't blame a team for taking a swing at that.

36:01.137 --> 36:04.539
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, so that moves us on to pick six, the Royals.

36:05.519 --> 36:10.762
[SPEAKER_00]: And in this all world, Dave, this board is lined up crazy.

36:10.802 --> 36:13.243
[SPEAKER_00]: They've got a lot of wealth of opportunities here.

36:13.703 --> 36:16.224
[SPEAKER_01]: I think they would love this scenario, if you're the Royals.

36:16.244 --> 36:29.911
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, basically what I hear is like Jacob Lombard sounds like the preference for Kansas City and in this scenario, they're picking from, maybe all of their top high school prospects at the board, like I assume they don't think Grady Emerson is getting to him, if I'd add it.

36:30.411 --> 36:31.572
[SPEAKER_01]: I feel great.

36:31.593 --> 36:33.254
[SPEAKER_01]: They know that great Emerson is not getting them.

36:33.294 --> 36:36.178
[SPEAKER_01]: They're not, they're not scouting him as realistic possibility to get there.

36:36.218 --> 36:41.444
[SPEAKER_01]: So let's do Jacob Lombard, sure stuff out of Florida, high school, sure stuff out of Florida for the Royals.

36:42.285 --> 36:48.352
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, I don't want this to be a less throw every curve ball draft, it's more like altering all the other night.

36:49.052 --> 36:57.037
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and I think basically what I'm getting at is like, I think in this scenario, Jacob Blombart would be the the preferred target and he's here, so let's not over complicate things.

36:57.497 --> 37:01.599
[SPEAKER_01]: In some ways, Jacob Blombart is the high school version of Justin LeBron.

37:01.660 --> 37:05.322
[SPEAKER_01]: He is an exceptional athlete with power, with speed.

37:06.082 --> 37:11.128
[SPEAKER_01]: If he's not the best offensive shortstop in the high school class, he's second to only eight in a row ease.

37:11.168 --> 37:13.471
[SPEAKER_01]: He is impeccable with the glove.

37:13.531 --> 37:14.833
[SPEAKER_01]: He moves fluidly.

37:14.973 --> 37:21.741
[SPEAKER_01]: He moves as you would expect a high school player with his familial ties to the game.

37:23.997 --> 37:27.698
[SPEAKER_01]: I do think that there are, I mean, we talked about it on a podcast recently.

37:27.738 --> 37:36.982
[SPEAKER_01]: He has some of the same swing and miss concerns that guys like Ethan Holliday, Elijah Green had at the same time in terms of pure misrace on the circuit.

37:37.362 --> 37:44.064
[SPEAKER_01]: But you could say he's got pluses across the board outside of the pure hitting ability and his spring while it is high school competition.

37:44.565 --> 37:50.607
[SPEAKER_01]: You maybe can't feel as strong about the takeaways and the growth from a pure hit perspective that you can for the college players.

37:51.227 --> 38:14.492
[SPEAKER_01]: he had a really good spring and he had a lot of really good feedback from scouts about what what this swing was looking like, the performance, and so I think on the high school side Jacob Blombard is probably the biggest upside player in this class, and getting that at six could be pretty appealing for the royals who like the pirates, also kind of have a stalwart at short stop, but again, I would just love to emphasize

38:15.634 --> 38:19.096
[SPEAKER_01]: It does not matter that you have a good big league shortstop now.

38:19.397 --> 38:22.218
[SPEAKER_01]: If you think the best player in the draft is a shortstop.

38:22.278 --> 38:28.142
[SPEAKER_01]: It is maybe outside of pitchers, the least problematic position to double up on.

38:28.282 --> 38:36.788
[SPEAKER_01]: So take the player, Jacob Lombard could be a perfectly good or a great third baseman, second baseman, Alfielder, he could play all over the diamond if you need him to.

38:37.667 --> 38:39.847
[SPEAKER_00]: To just kind of take that a little further, right?

38:40.148 --> 38:44.388
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think I know that you hear white sucks fans say we're covered at Ketcher, we don't need a Ketcher.

38:44.749 --> 38:56.531
[SPEAKER_00]: If look, if the white socks thought that Von Lackey was just the slam dunk best player in the draft, I don't think that Edgar Cuero or Kyle Tiel or any one of that sort should be like, nope, we can't take them, we're locked up there.

38:56.951 --> 39:01.552
[SPEAKER_00]: But we see this with the Orioles with Sammy Bessayo and Adley Rushman, they're like, hey, it's a good problem to have.

39:01.992 --> 39:03.613
[SPEAKER_00]: But what I would say is it's exactly what you're saying.

39:03.813 --> 39:04.293
[SPEAKER_00]: Shortstop?

39:05.033 --> 39:10.716
[SPEAKER_00]: That's like, you just basically got a multi-purpose tool, and yes, if you need a screwdriver, it's a screwdriver.

39:11.117 --> 39:13.898
[SPEAKER_00]: If you need, you know, a pliers, it's pliers.

39:14.078 --> 39:15.479
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a short stop, it can do that.

39:15.799 --> 39:16.640
[SPEAKER_00]: I did want to ask you.

39:17.650 --> 39:20.813
[SPEAKER_00]: In this scenario, you've mentioned Jackson Flora before.

39:20.833 --> 39:35.386
[SPEAKER_00]: Do you think there's any scenario where they might go down that road and say, like, hey, we didn't expect the best picture, the best college picture in the class to be still on the sixth or is it seem much more likely that they're kind of going a little bit more of the the higher upside high school choice.

39:35.406 --> 39:38.388
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I can rule out Jackson Flora by any means.

39:39.069 --> 39:42.032
[SPEAKER_01]: I certainly hear a lot more of the high school names around the royals.

39:42.192 --> 39:43.253
[SPEAKER_01]: And I don't feel like

39:44.505 --> 39:54.596
[SPEAKER_01]: Like if the Royals were much more interested in Jackson Flora, I feel like we would hear his name more frequently because we only really hear him associated with the pirates and maybe occasionally with the giants.

39:54.656 --> 39:59.261
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not like Jackson Flora is like definitely going to be off the board in front of him.

39:59.321 --> 40:03.025
[SPEAKER_01]: And so like it's very close not hearing about him with the Royals as a,

40:03.906 --> 40:04.786
[SPEAKER_01]: results of that.

40:05.306 --> 40:17.009
[SPEAKER_01]: And so I do think like it seems like they're more interested in some of the high school pitching options, particularly G. A. Rojas who they've been super heavy on, I think G. A. Rojas has more upside potential than Jackson Flora.

40:17.909 --> 40:22.930
[SPEAKER_01]: But no, I don't think he would be like a, out of the rumble possibility option for them.

40:22.970 --> 40:23.950
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the talent would fit here.

40:23.970 --> 40:24.190
[SPEAKER_01]: Fine.

40:24.750 --> 40:25.911
[SPEAKER_01]: But I do think for seven.

40:26.051 --> 40:26.951
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, we're going to get there.

40:26.971 --> 40:27.531
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to get there.

40:27.551 --> 40:31.572
[SPEAKER_00]: But before we get to seven, we're going to take one more break, then you have to find out who the oils

40:35.465 --> 40:39.453
[SPEAKER_00]: And we're back, okay, so Carlos, at seven, the Orioles picking here.

40:39.813 --> 40:43.119
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, in this all universe, the board is a little jumbled.

40:43.781 --> 40:44.282
[SPEAKER_00]: Where they go?

40:45.607 --> 41:00.218
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I think it probably doesn't work out, maybe kind of does kind of doesn't, but the best player available in this scenario is either Jackson Flora, who is a pitcher, who the Orioles just do not take at the top of the draft, and I would not be expecting them to take a pitcher.

41:00.238 --> 41:02.160
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll be a whole new world if you got here.

41:02.820 --> 41:10.066
[SPEAKER_01]: But I have heard that the Orioles really do like both Jacob Lombard and Eric Booth Jr. and in this scenario, Eric Booth Jr. is available.

41:10.226 --> 41:12.067
[SPEAKER_01]: And so let's make him the pick.

41:12.928 --> 41:13.728
[SPEAKER_01]: I think Eric Booth Jr.

41:14.609 --> 41:29.502
[SPEAKER_01]: Like Drew Burris, and maybe even more than Drew Burris is a prospect that appeals to both model heavy teams and scout oriented clubs, his collection of athleticism and tools, physicality, and his in his build is really impressive.

41:30.343 --> 41:35.807
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the the contact pop up the middle position profile that

41:36.568 --> 41:44.976
[SPEAKER_01]: Eric Booth provides is maybe the most exciting in the high school class, maybe you could say it's the most exciting in the class, additionally he's a left handed hitter.

41:45.777 --> 41:52.944
[SPEAKER_01]: The Orioles have taken a lot of left handed hitters, he's young for the class, he's going to be basically just 18 a few days before the draft starts.

41:53.004 --> 41:57.749
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think he checks a lot of boxes for really a lot of teams in this top 10 range.

41:57.769 --> 41:59.951
[SPEAKER_01]: I think a number of the teams are interested in him.

42:00.652 --> 42:24.512
[SPEAKER_01]: at some level, because of that, I really feel like it's unlikely that he falls much further, then this range I would be stunned if both kind of the back end of this top six group we're talking about in the class slips out of the first 10 picks, and so that's why even in this alternate mock draft scenario, it's hard to not make him the pick here, although there are maybe five or six different college hitting options that could be intriguing as well.

42:26.340 --> 42:53.799
[SPEAKER_00]: We've said kind of consistently like that booth kind of here we are it is pick seven even in an alt universe world that we're saying plausible but less than our 50% plus likelihood options here we still have five of our top six on our board off the board by pick seven that's to me like again kind of lays out that there really does feel like I get it like we have that top three that we talked about

42:54.581 --> 43:10.476
[SPEAKER_00]: Then we have that group right behind them, which I would say that the thing that seems to be that the separator heard I'm asking you, but my sense is the separator is, is when you talk about the lumbarards and the boosts as opposed to these college bats.

43:11.443 --> 43:30.273
[SPEAKER_00]: there's many more kind of like different permutations of how teams may line up that group of college hitters as opposed to there's a clear it feels like delineation that most teams view that these are the best three high school hitters in the class and that it's a drop after that.

43:30.893 --> 43:32.574
[SPEAKER_01]: That feels right, I think that's accurate.

43:32.594 --> 43:33.894
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, there are some teams,

43:35.682 --> 43:45.129
[SPEAKER_01]: That have Jacob Lombard a little bit lower because they're more scared about the swing and miss, but I think collectively, teams are still viewing these top six players is kind of the top six.

43:45.889 --> 43:53.315
[SPEAKER_00]: As you said also, the other thing is is that putting mocking the Orioles taking an out filter high in the draft is also not a surprising thing.

43:53.355 --> 43:54.496
[SPEAKER_00]: They do very regularly.

43:54.756 --> 43:55.736
[SPEAKER_01]: So too many out filters.

43:56.157 --> 43:57.798
[SPEAKER_00]: OK, A is at eight.

43:58.458 --> 44:03.142
[SPEAKER_00]: In this scenario, I'm wondering if Jackson Flora gets popular as he keeps sliding.

44:04.414 --> 44:05.934
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, let's take them off the board here.

44:06.194 --> 44:08.195
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's make Jackson, Florida, the pick.

44:08.315 --> 44:11.476
[SPEAKER_01]: I think in some ways, if you're the ace, this is a dream scenario.

44:12.396 --> 44:14.356
[SPEAKER_01]: I've heard that the ace want to add more pitching.

44:14.836 --> 44:19.237
[SPEAKER_01]: They're picking and arrange in the draft this year where they might just not have great options available.

44:19.297 --> 44:25.279
[SPEAKER_01]: If they want to do college pitching in particular in this scenario, they're basically saying, hey, we have our choice.

44:25.999 --> 44:28.100
[SPEAKER_01]: of the top pitching prospect in the class.

44:28.140 --> 44:31.182
[SPEAKER_01]: Whoever we think is the best pitcher, it's been straight hitters so far.

44:31.762 --> 44:35.624
[SPEAKER_01]: I do think Jackson Flore fits as a really good value at this spot at number eight.

44:35.684 --> 44:38.486
[SPEAKER_01]: I think for the critiques, you could have his profile.

44:39.246 --> 44:40.647
[SPEAKER_01]: He really does check a lot of boxes.

44:40.727 --> 44:45.190
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, the fastball is a chance to be a plus pitch with good life and power.

44:46.310 --> 44:49.311
[SPEAKER_01]: He has diversified the arsenal to a significant degree.

44:49.331 --> 44:51.972
[SPEAKER_01]: We've talked about that and written about that a lot at the site.

44:53.072 --> 44:58.433
[SPEAKER_01]: His change up that he's added is a real plus offering now for many scouts.

44:58.553 --> 45:11.597
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think he has the delivery, the body, just the athleticism on the mound, to make strides in the areas where he's going to need to continue improving, which is the command and the execution and the consistency of his pitches.

45:11.617 --> 45:12.557
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he is a

45:13.677 --> 45:20.002
[SPEAKER_01]: mid-rotation starting package, and if you can sharpen up the command, maybe you can get a little bit more.

45:20.942 --> 45:25.506
[SPEAKER_01]: But this would be a pretty solid win if the A's are like we need to add pitching here.

45:26.126 --> 45:32.571
[SPEAKER_00]: Which by the way, adding him to Jamie Arnold who took last year, gets Jump who just made his big league debut a couple of weeks ago.

45:32.591 --> 45:42.238
[SPEAKER_01]: This would feel similar to the Jamie Arnold pick from a year ago where you get a player who could have easily gone in front of you and you just happily scoop him up when he makes it to you.

45:42.898 --> 46:01.779
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, so here we go to the braves at nine and until last year I would have probably said, hey, so the braves I know we just said that a picture went off the board, but the braves were pretty much all pitched all the time, but they've they've read adjusted they are now at the point where the lineup of guys who are signed

46:02.440 --> 46:05.701
[SPEAKER_00]: into perpetuity, perpetuity has gotten a lot closer here.

46:06.181 --> 46:14.084
[SPEAKER_00]: The Aussie Albeys, Toronto Cunies, there are a number of these guys who are no longer like, oh, they're going to be, they're under contract for the next six years.

46:14.564 --> 46:15.224
[SPEAKER_00]: That's kind of stopped.

46:15.384 --> 46:17.565
[SPEAKER_00]: They had a more position player heavy draft.

46:18.065 --> 46:29.088
[SPEAKER_00]: If you do, if you're listening to this or watching this on YouTube, do check out, we did a whole kind of like 20 minutes on the Braves Farm System and how it's improved this year, up earlier this week,

46:32.566 --> 46:33.766
[SPEAKER_00]: That's kind of setting the stage.

46:33.886 --> 46:36.647
[SPEAKER_00]: What do you see where do you see the brave's going here?

46:36.667 --> 46:44.589
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I feel like they could go in a number of different directions and this is really the board where the board starts to open up here because we've cleared the top tier of the class.

46:44.910 --> 46:48.511
[SPEAKER_01]: I've heard a lot of college hitters with the braves.

46:48.571 --> 46:50.731
[SPEAKER_01]: We hear Jill Rohaustide to them.

46:50.891 --> 46:53.212
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not sure how seriously to take that rumor because

46:54.160 --> 47:03.586
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, they just have taken a lot of high school pictures with they want to take one here at nine after they started pivoting to more of a hitter centric draft approach a year ago, I'm uncertain of that.

47:03.686 --> 47:18.735
[SPEAKER_01]: I've heard them tied to AJ Garcia, Chris a copian would be really appealing that oriented college prospects, but the player that makes a lot of sense to me in this scenario is Tyler Bell, the shortstop with Kentucky.

47:19.615 --> 47:32.129
[SPEAKER_01]: I feel like one of the things that stood out to me in this latest round of mock draft reporting was that every team picking in this eight to 16 range is really enamored with with Tyler Bell.

47:32.790 --> 47:38.976
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he gives you a lot of what we talked about with Brady Emerson at the very top of this alternate draft, which is.

47:39.577 --> 47:41.618
[SPEAKER_01]: kind of safety throughout the profile.

47:41.638 --> 47:45.061
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, he does not have the most explosive tool set.

47:45.101 --> 47:52.406
[SPEAKER_01]: He does not have the sort of power that you maybe could get with a hookopian or with an ace Reese or with an AJ Garcia.

47:53.086 --> 47:54.788
[SPEAKER_01]: But he is a switch hitting shortstop.

47:55.368 --> 47:58.770
[SPEAKER_01]: who really understands a strike zone, gets on base, a ton.

47:59.711 --> 48:07.255
[SPEAKER_01]: He didn't play a full season this spring, because they had a shoulder injury in his first game, but when he came back, he was a tremendous performer.

48:08.335 --> 48:10.637
[SPEAKER_01]: He was a high-peter group player coming out of high school.

48:10.777 --> 48:24.485
[SPEAKER_01]: And so I think there's a lot of comfort with Tyler Bell, both in his track record of hitting over the years, and also just the defensive profile and the profile in general of a safe college shortstop prospect.

48:25.465 --> 48:34.869
[SPEAKER_01]: He might not have a plus two on the card, but I don't think you can point to him and say he's a buff average in any specific area as well And so I think he's just a really well-rounded player.

48:34.889 --> 48:50.174
[SPEAKER_00]: He's gonna appeal to basically every team in this range Again, we were talking of also like he's a pretty sure fire like the defense you're getting value there You're getting a hit tool and then we'll see how the power develops, but Pretty good guy and I think the one the only in this all universe.

48:50.214 --> 48:52.495
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's still as a pick that matched what you picked

48:53.175 --> 48:57.919
[SPEAKER_01]: in our previous and the most recent mock draft because, yeah, sorry if you wanted more variety Braise fans.

48:58.119 --> 49:00.421
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think they'll be pretty happy with Tyler Bell.

49:01.022 --> 49:06.066
[SPEAKER_00]: But they use a short stop, they've been the position that they've kind of been struggling at for years here.

49:06.506 --> 49:09.429
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, last pick of this go through in Chempix here.

49:11.562 --> 49:12.222
[SPEAKER_00]: the Rockies.

49:12.583 --> 49:31.112
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean for one, let's just start by saying, I feel like that this is the Rockies and where they go is probably more kind of it'll be interesting to see than any other team picking the top 10 because I think you could largely, I know that they're still like,

49:32.430 --> 49:36.131
[SPEAKER_00]: It'll be in our city if they follow any part of what they've been doing.

49:36.171 --> 49:38.492
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a lot of the same people there, a lot of the same scouts.

49:38.712 --> 49:43.033
[SPEAKER_00]: They're still a core of people there who have been involved for years.

49:43.373 --> 49:51.095
[SPEAKER_00]: But at the same time, it's also under a completely new head of baseball operations and Paul D. Butesta wouldn't do the Rockies doing here.

49:51.752 --> 49:53.593
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I just want to echo your comments.

49:53.613 --> 50:04.936
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm really curious to see if there's an obvious trait or sort of profile they're going for and we're going to have multiple opportunities to see if there are any consistent traits linking their first three picks, because they pick here at 10.

50:05.436 --> 50:08.698
[SPEAKER_01]: They also have multiple picks in the supplemental round at 37, 38.

50:09.458 --> 50:15.480
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe because they have those picks, I've heard the Rockies tied to a lot more high school pitching than I would expect for them.

50:16.660 --> 50:20.762
[SPEAKER_01]: But for this pick, let's shake up the sort of hitting profile that they're going with.

50:20.842 --> 50:24.123
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's do Derek Curiel, the Alfielder at LSU.

50:24.923 --> 50:36.628
[SPEAKER_01]: He is not a player that I would have put at this specific pick a week ago, but I did have some conversations in the reporting for this mock draft that Derek Curiel is a name that they're interested in.

50:36.648 --> 50:42.511
[SPEAKER_01]: I think, again, like the Braves Pickwood Tyler Bell, this is similar to the mock draft, but I think,

50:43.348 --> 50:49.233
[SPEAKER_01]: talking through the the Derek career pick and maybe what that could indicate for what the Rockies might be trying to do.

50:49.333 --> 50:50.715
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, we'll see if this actually happens.

50:50.775 --> 50:57.280
[SPEAKER_01]: But Derek career is almost the antithesis of a lot of the hitting profiles, the Rockies have targeted in recent years.

50:57.300 --> 50:58.782
[SPEAKER_01]: He is very much a hit first.

50:59.222 --> 51:00.303
[SPEAKER_01]: Makes a lot of contact.

51:00.403 --> 51:01.644
[SPEAKER_01]: There are power questions.

51:02.305 --> 51:03.266
[SPEAKER_01]: And I do think that

51:04.450 --> 51:14.137
[SPEAKER_01]: Garrett Curielle's offensive profile would be really interesting and really fun to me in course field because I think he would be a player obviously, most players are going to benefit by hitting in course field.

51:15.137 --> 51:21.702
[SPEAKER_01]: But he would be able to pepper those gaps and get a lot of extra slugging from doubles in a really fun way.

51:21.802 --> 51:29.868
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think he is the sort of defender who can stick in center field without having the elite 70 or 80 grade running ability.

51:30.348 --> 51:31.148
[SPEAKER_01]: I've talked about this

51:34.415 --> 51:38.851
[SPEAKER_01]: a really well-rounded player I would take him even higher than this foos me.

51:40.262 --> 51:48.888
[SPEAKER_01]: But again, I think, along with Tyler Bell, like once Tyler Bell is off the board, I feel like Derek Coriel is one of the most popular college hitters in the draft at this stage.

51:49.168 --> 51:53.751
[SPEAKER_00]: One thing I want to ask with that is that, because we haven't talked about it on the podcast since this came out.

51:53.852 --> 51:56.193
[SPEAKER_00]: Coriel came out and said, yes, I was hurt.

51:56.353 --> 51:59.375
[SPEAKER_00]: I did, I was injured in the off season.

51:59.395 --> 52:05.380
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he basically said, I'm not gonna tell you exactly what it was, but it wasn't a great idea whatever it was, but he was injured.

52:06.300 --> 52:12.290
[SPEAKER_00]: and he kind of carried that into the star of the season, played through it, and then did get better as the season went on.

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[SPEAKER_00]: How much do you think that might factor into as teams of Iowa career?

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think if you're a team that had concerns with their career or maybe negative reports on him early in the year, it gives you a reason for why he wasn't playing up to what your expectations might have been and you might feel a little bit better about his slow start to the year because yes, like he said, he was, it felt like every college hitter once we turned this schedule into conference play, everyone started the struggle.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That wasn't the case for their career.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It felt like he was starting to kind of hit his

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[SPEAKER_01]: his peak form against conference play, but I also think that Derek Coriel has just such an extensive track record.

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[SPEAKER_01]: As a high school player, the teams are going to have a lot of comfort with him regardless, they'll certainly want to get a better understanding of what the actual injury was if they're going to be any lingering effects from that and I imagine they'll get that information as we get closer to the draft if they haven't.

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[SPEAKER_01]: already.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But I think ultimately the biggest question with their courriel still is like how much power are you going to get?

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[SPEAKER_01]: And it does that power question prevent you from taking him in a spot right here inside the first 10 picks.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, to wrap this up.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So here we are, we've gone through 10,

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[SPEAKER_00]: Even though this is very jumbled and this is kind of a lot of like, okay, we think this is it's this is 55 45 let's go with the 45 or the 64 let's go with 40 the other thing that stands out is is that that kind of goes back to the stratification of this draft.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I feel like at a pickle 11 in this alternate world, you're still talking about a scenario where 11, 12, 13, 14.

53:48.870 --> 53:54.251
[SPEAKER_00]: It's kind of a lot of the same names that even if you say, the most chalk mock draft you could have.

53:54.711 --> 53:58.492
[SPEAKER_01]: Still, I think that, yeah, I think once you get here, it's a lot of the same names.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The one name in this version that maybe does shake things up a little bit, is Justin LeBron.

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[SPEAKER_01]: and maybe like like looking here and seeing the short stops who've gone off the board if you're a team picking in the middle of the first round there might not be a lot of short stop capital for you to pick from maybe that changes if guys like eight in Ruiz get push up the board a little bit more land and tome called prosick some of the maybe a

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[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe an Eric Becker moves up because of that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So like, there are some ripple effects from this, but I do think, yeah, going through the process, for me at least highlights like there, there is a clear tier of six players.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's hard to envision scenarios where those players fall.

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[SPEAKER_01]: There are not a lot of obvious super far off the board names that make it ton of sense to jump into this range, which maybe makes LeBron one of the more interesting players as he has been throughout the entirety of the spring.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But that is our look at an alternate reality top 10 pick mock draft.

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[SPEAKER_00]: There will be many more we are working.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We just are putting the finishing touches on a staff draft that we've been working on because we like doing those two.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Go a lot deeper than 10 picks, I'll tell you that.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But we're doing that right now as well.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And obviously there is going to be so much more coming at baseballner.com.

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[SPEAKER_00]: If you want to get ready for the draft, we will get you ready.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We will give you everything you need to get you ready for the 2021-26 MLB draft.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Whether your team is picking one,

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[SPEAKER_00]: like the white socks, or if you're like the Dodgers and you're gonna have to wait around a little while to hear that first pick.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We'll get you ready for it.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Four Carlos, I'm JJ.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's along everybody.