[SPEAKER_01]: Hey everybody, J.J. Cooper, Jeff Ponds, Ian Kunderl.

[SPEAKER_01]: On the baseball America Prospect podcast, we got the whole crew here today, fun topic for today.

[SPEAKER_01]: We get questions.

[SPEAKER_01]: We do chat every week at baseballamerica.com and in those, a lot of times the questions we get are questions about understandably, about players who were less highly regarded, often not even top 30 prospects coming into a season, who then emerge have big seasons and the question that people want the answer to is,

[SPEAKER_01]: Is this guy a guy I need to know about, is this guy of someone who's kind of having a blip of a season or is this the sign of a key change a step forward where this is someone who maybe a little bit of a late bloomer, we're going to be talking about a number of those prospects today on the baseball America prospect podcast, we're going to kind of cover a lot of teams, a lot of organizations, a lot of levels because

[SPEAKER_01]: these profiles range from the 24 year old to having really good years in AA to we're going to at the end we will bring in some when we say this is kind of be focused on less appreciated prospects but we are going to talk about some complex league guys who very much are a little bit of a different profile.

[SPEAKER_01]: There are players who I would say fit much more of the profile of they're just emerging as prospects but

[SPEAKER_01]: very different between, say, a Sebastian Dos Santos, who we're going to talk about, and a Lonnie White Jr. for instance, to give you an example of kind of the range of what we're going to talk about, but great to see you guys as always.

[SPEAKER_01]: And let's just dive straight in.

[SPEAKER_01]: The kind of the idea that came to to kind of do the podcast this way, kind of come from writing about Owen

[SPEAKER_01]: for Tuesday.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's been up a day.

[SPEAKER_01]: And by the time you read this, I think Ian's piece on 25 other prospects to watch like this will also be up, you know, rising.

[SPEAKER_01]: So there's multiple places at baseballmerker.com about this.

[SPEAKER_01]: But

[SPEAKER_01]: want to talk start with Owen Ayers, the catcher for the cubs, I'll lay out kind of the biography here and why he is a perfect example of what we're talking about here.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, Ayers was a later-round pick of the cubs, catcher out of Marshall, spent two years in Juco, a state college of Florida, J.C., two years at Marshall, and then I would say two years, 24, 25, with the, with the cubs,

[SPEAKER_01]: light-hitting, catcher, good defense of profile.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that had kind of been his story going back to four years of college.

[SPEAKER_01]: Had never hit two 300 at any level in junior college, or D1, or minor leagues.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then here we are.

[SPEAKER_01]: It is June 16th as we record this.

[SPEAKER_01]: We are recording this before air's place on Tuesday night.

[SPEAKER_01]: He has a 10-game multi-hit hitting streak going into Tuesday night, which

[SPEAKER_01]: hitting streaks okay yeah 10 game hitting streaks not that big a deal not many guys have 10 game two or more hit streaks going we've only seen a few of those are the last 10 years in the minor leagues he is hitting 332-442-689 17 homers good strike out to walk ratio

[SPEAKER_01]: 15 doubles and by the way, good defense reputation as a catcher.

[SPEAKER_01]: Jeff, you do the cubs for us.

[SPEAKER_01]: How real does this feel for a guy who really has kind of leapt?

[SPEAKER_01]: Not just, I would say, he leapt up to number 15 on your cubs top 30 list for the May update.

[SPEAKER_01]: I feel comfortable with saying he will move further up, not down in the next update, but how hard is it to kind of figure out how much of this is blip, and how much of this is real and sustainable change?

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I mean, I think that's always the struggle, especially with a player like this that.

[SPEAKER_02]: um, didn't have a ton of of amateur pedigree, um, I think we talked about it this morning and had never hit 300 at any level until now, until this season.

[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe in the hours on a fall league had a big fall league.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's kind of when he showed up on the radar because you're not really looking at 23-year-old catchers in low-ach, um, throughout the season.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's pretty easy to kind of write that off as even if it was a decent performance and not outstanding.

[SPEAKER_02]: of like all right this is sort of a show improved guy maybe somebody who's on that 31 to kind of 50 range of players who that you know considering you're asking questions about as you're doing your work but not somebody you expect necessarily rank.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, certainly had the AFL, which put them on to the rate.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I'm on just to just to summarize that 3.79, 5.39, 5.91 of the AFL.

[SPEAKER_01]: 22 walks, 10 strikeouts.

[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, that was great, but it also was AFL pitching where you're like, yeah, okay.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, he hoped about and watched his balls went over his head, bounce to him, rolled to the plate, you know, a variety of things.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, sorry, sorry to interrupt.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and I think, you know, you sort of look at a catcher and...

[SPEAKER_02]: The bad isn't necessarily the most important part of the profile.

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think that that's, I'm saying anything out of turn to anybody, but it certainly is something that puts it into perspective, especially considering opinions on catching defense.

[SPEAKER_02]: This can be at the amateur level and at the pro level, and we were having a conversation about Daniel Jackson the other day.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, with Georgia and it feels as if depending upon who you talk to, you might get very different opinions on, you know, what's, uh,

[SPEAKER_02]: what that catching defense is like.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's been pretty good with airs.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's been a good arm.

[SPEAKER_02]: The framing metrics that I have seen had always been pretty good last year in terms of the data.

[SPEAKER_02]: There was impact here at 104.5 90th percentile just under 89 mile per hour average exit velocity.

[SPEAKER_02]: around a 30% miss where they 20% miss rate in zone decent chase and swing rate numbers and okay angles, but once again, you know, it's a 24 year old switch hitter, you know, in the lowest level of full season baseball.

[SPEAKER_02]: So there certainly some questions with that.

[SPEAKER_02]: airs is continued to move up different levels this year.

[SPEAKER_02]: Obviously, you mentioned now in AA, the EV numbers are looking even better.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's now in 92 mile per hour average exit velocities hitting the ball harder more consistently.

[SPEAKER_02]: The contact rates of kind of state stable as he's moved up, which is almost like the contact rates improving when you're thinking about the difference between, you know, full season in the low-A carolina league and the type of pitching you're going to face there.

[SPEAKER_02]: versus AA in the Southern League, even if it's not the Southern League of old this year, I think that's still pretty impressive.

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if it's a top 100 prospect that was asked that question yesterday.

[SPEAKER_02]: Certainly, if he keeps us up for I think another month or so, he's really in contention for getting on to the list.

[SPEAKER_02]: I do think this is a top 10 Cubs prospect and with some of the guys that have been on that list that have been injured all season like anything, con, rat and others,

[SPEAKER_02]: It wouldn't be surprising to see him leapfrogs some names who were considered much bigger names and during the season versus what heirs was.

[SPEAKER_02]: So he continues to move up.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think the longer you do this, and I'm sure JJ and Ian will agree with me.

[SPEAKER_02]: You don't want to overreact, right?

[SPEAKER_02]: You'll learn your lesson a few times from overreacting to things.

[SPEAKER_02]: Kind of incrementally move players up as they meet certain benchmarks.

[SPEAKER_02]: And then once they meet sort of important benchmarks and maybe move beyond the question marks of a 25 year old catcher, et cetera, then you can sort of get to that point.

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if he's a top and under prospect.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's certainly a top 250 to 300 prospect now.

[SPEAKER_02]: He is a slam dunk top 10 in a system type of prospects for most systems outside of probably the deepest.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's been a great show in my ears and I think he's somebody that if you're a cubs fan, you should be pretty positive about this is this is kind of the germ of the idea that I wrote with at baseball american.com is like looking at these guys who have these massive jumps.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, it was a quick and dirty study, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: I didn't normalize for league.

[SPEAKER_01]: I didn't normalize for league context and all, but I just kind of basically said, give me every minor league hitter.

[SPEAKER_01]: who had a 75 point or better improvement in batting average and on base and a 150 point improvement in slugging percentage from one year to the next 250 or more plate appearances each year.

[SPEAKER_01]: And there's only like 26 guys who've done that in the last basically decade, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: It's a pretty small group.

[SPEAKER_01]: And

[SPEAKER_01]: The information on that I would say was muddy.

[SPEAKER_01]: Go back to what Jeff just said right there.

[SPEAKER_01]: Why you want to have a little skepticism?

[SPEAKER_01]: There are Ryan McMahon's and Thai frances and Elliott Ramos and Jeremiah Jackson's in that group where you're like, oh, okay.

[SPEAKER_01]: In a number of these cases, it was kind of a player taking that step.

[SPEAKER_01]: And you go, okay, we were concerned before, now we're on as concerned and they end up having long, big league careers.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then there is also a whole lot of guys like Jose Puhuls and Chris Paul and Bobby Wernis and you know Ryan Aguar and guys like that where you could say it was the perfect year where everything came together and then it went back to normal and once it went back to normal like Gerber another example this where you're like okay and some of these cases they're out of the

[SPEAKER_01]: the miners, two years later.

[SPEAKER_01]: I would say with this kind of the point that Jeff made, the fact that O'Nare is a catcher and legitimately a solid catcher, I feel like he's now that right there means with this kind of hitting ability switchheader, with this kind of hitting ability.

[SPEAKER_01]: That right there is going to mean, he's a big leaker.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's now a question of how much of an impact is he gonna have a big leaker.

[SPEAKER_01]: I really tried to kind of dive into, I was watching video yesterday

[SPEAKER_01]: state college, you know, of Florida swings to Marshall to 2024 to now.

[SPEAKER_01]: And what's noble about it is, I was really focusing on his left-handed swing because I didn't have that much time and

[SPEAKER_01]: That's where he does most of his swings from his, you know, switch it or left hand to do more.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's not a dramatic difference.

[SPEAKER_01]: The main things that I saw from that were really about balance and weight transfer, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: Like the stance was pretty similar, maybe a little bit lower handset, but the key thing was,

[SPEAKER_01]: I would say that before you would see a lot of times where I would describe him as top heavy where he would kind of end up over the plate where you could see that he was kind of lunging at the pitch and so it was kind of like the weight goes through the upper body like he swings but the lower half's really not connected to it.

[SPEAKER_01]: What he's doing a lot better job I felt like this and

[SPEAKER_01]: It was interesting.

[SPEAKER_01]: You noted his 90 if he v and Maxi v's haven't really changed this year, but the average really has what he's doing.

[SPEAKER_01]: I feel like a lot better job of is those swings where

[SPEAKER_01]: you stay back and you get that crew rotation where you're getting that weight transfer.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so you have your whole body into this wing instead of something where you're kind of all arms and nothing else.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's going to be fascinating to see how this kind of stick around eat.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't want to keep you out of it either.

[SPEAKER_01]: Any thoughts that you have on on airs?

[SPEAKER_00]: No, I mean, he was just, it was someone I highlighted actually last week, talking about in my story about what one compelling non-talk tent hitting prospect from every team, just because it was just a very well-rounded data set, like, as Jeff said, you know, it's solid average EVs or above average spending on which one you're looking at, consistent makes hard contact, and that was the thing that really stood out when looking at the

[SPEAKER_00]: Um, so he's just consistently making hard contact and given he was a 20, 24th, 90th round, take you signed for 50k.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, that's a heck of a turnaround, especially considering how much you have literally showed it to play Darius first full season.

[SPEAKER_00]: So between the AFL and then carrying it over this year, he's someone who definitely looks like a top 10 prospect easily in that system now.

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, so we're now going to go to I would say the player who's having the a little bit more under the radar, but it is having a truly great season because Manuel Pena with the D backs.

[SPEAKER_01]: has 26 homers.

[SPEAKER_01]: It is June 16th and he has 26 homers already leads the minor leagues by four homers right now and is on pace to potentially hit 50 homers this year, which I believe off top my head.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm pretty sure the last person do that was Ryan Howard.

[SPEAKER_01]: for reading many years ago.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now obviously because Ryan Howard, the Philly's first base, has been not the giant short stop right and powered, but that Ryan Howard has been retired for quite a while.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it is something where it's been a while.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I've gotten a question to Chad.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think you probably all have, too.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like why aren't you all writing more about Manuel Pena, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: Like he's having this incredible season.

[SPEAKER_01]: And he's not one of the guys that we're citing as like Eric Hartman or, you know, Josiah Harshorn or others.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like we're not highlighting.

[SPEAKER_01]: Look at this breakout prospect this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: Ian, I'll go to you first because you do the D-backs for us than mid-season.

[SPEAKER_01]: Why is it that we're not talking about him or why is there still to go back to what Jeff said still on our part I would say a little bit of a healthy skepticism

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and to be fair, we did write about him also actually in that same piece.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, he was featured in it, but yeah, I mean, paying you what he's done this year is amazing.

[SPEAKER_00]: SJJ said he's up to 26 home runs and he had 31 career home runs heading into this season in five years.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, yeah, I think the biggest thing that's changed when you see him is he just looked way more physically.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's listed at six foot 170 pounds.

[SPEAKER_00]: William Washman video, he looks he's well over 200 pounds if I would had to guess now.

[SPEAKER_00]: And it's showing up, his EVs are way off, his way up, excuse me, his average EV is up five miles an hour, his 90th is up four miles an hour.

[SPEAKER_00]: And he's just transformed, his bad at ball distribution, his fly ball rate is up considerably.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's just completely leaning into power.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's where the skepticism comes from.

[SPEAKER_00]: Because when I did my top 30 update for the Diamondbacks a couple of weeks ago, or mid-bay, he was the name that I flagged, and he's just outside or right now, but talking to scouts.

[SPEAKER_00]: There was just some skepticism for a couple of reasons.

[SPEAKER_00]: Number one is the Texas League.

[SPEAKER_00]: He has pretty big home road splits.

[SPEAKER_00]: He plays in a very good hitterspark and on Maria.

[SPEAKER_00]: And as of, I haven't looked at the recently, but as of last week, it was a 342 average at home in a 2307 average on the road.

[SPEAKER_00]: I believe you had a really good week last week, so it's probably, yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: I can update that 342, 381, 784 at home, 287, 333, 387 on the road.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so he had a great week last week, which is which is level that out.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I mean, that's you know about a 200 OPS point difference, but the biggest one is just the chase rate.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's really made a trade off to access to some more power.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's just gotten a lot more aggressive.

[SPEAKER_00]: And his chase rate is now up around 41%.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that's just, that's just a red flag member.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, the contact rates have gone down.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's really, it seems like he's kind of selling out for power and it's obviously working.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like he's playing in a hitting environment and he's playing to that environment.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think there's just worries that against better pitching that chase rate would be magnified if it's 441% in double A.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then the other issue is that it's something that it doesn't really get it doesn't show up in the Stalan is the defensive value.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's someone who he kind of has moved all around the series played first base second base.

[SPEAKER_00]: Third base of left yield fair is on up, but he's not really a great defender.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's probably best suited for first base, so that just puts a lot of pressure on his bat.

[SPEAKER_00]: What he's doing is remarkable.

[SPEAKER_00]: As I said, he had 31 career home runs coming into this season.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's probably going to pass that this week at the rate he's on, because in June, I think his OPS is like 1400.

[SPEAKER_00]: So,

[SPEAKER_00]: He's just on an absolute tear and it's, you know, it's a lot of fun to watch, but I think just long term, you know, it's one of those he's going to have to continue to do it over and over again given his profile.

[SPEAKER_01]: that the guy who comes to mind to me for him is Moisés Gomez, who former race prospect in Cardinals prospect, and Gomez had a year in 2022 where he basically hit 294-371-624 monster power coming off of you where he really hadn't hit was released, I believe, by the race, and then kind of found home with the Cardinals.

[SPEAKER_01]: and it was a great year and it moved up a AAA, like it was absolutely like, okay, but it was kind of at the upper end of his level.

[SPEAKER_01]: The other thing I think that we have to kind of put in a little bit of context here, again, it's a great year that Manuel Payne is having.

[SPEAKER_01]: When you hear 26 homers at this point in the season, we also have to acknowledge that the offensive environment across the minor leagues we've written about this also at baseball America is utterly different.

[SPEAKER_01]: We are looking at home running environments that are think mark McGuire, Sammy, Sosa, and you know level of in major leagues that kind of home running

[SPEAKER_01]: Babe Ruth hits home runs and no one else does home runs environments until this and many leagues so like to give an example he has 26 homers

[SPEAKER_01]: This time last year, she would come with the Astros, let all minor leagueers with 18 homers, and there were eight minor league hitters who had 15 plus homeruns at this time last year.

[SPEAKER_01]: This year, there are five, 20 homerun hitters so far, and there are 33 hitters with 15 plus homeruns right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: So we're talking about a very different environment that we're talking about.

[SPEAKER_01]: So again, we're not saying, he's definitely a improved prospect, but Jeff, what do you think?

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and I just wanted to put this in some historical context, going back the last couple years, players that got at least 250 plate appearances that had a 40% or higher chase rate.

[SPEAKER_02]: They were three players in the minor leagues in

[SPEAKER_02]: 2025 that had Wolbe's north of 330 with a 40% chase rate.

[SPEAKER_02]: Those players were Tristan English.

[SPEAKER_02]: She was 28 years old in AAA.

[SPEAKER_02]: Jeremiah Jackson, who had up and stuff with the memorials now.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, who had major league experience prior to that season was also in AAA.

[SPEAKER_02]: and hector Rodriguez, who just kind of swings in that sort of what his approach is a little bit younger and triple-ite.

[SPEAKER_02]: So three guys that did that.

[SPEAKER_02]: The previous year, in terms of guys that were 330 in above, it's Joan Kenzie Noel, which is probably a great comp.

[SPEAKER_02]: Davis and Dalo Santos, another really good comp.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yohel Pozo, Oscar Gonzales, another really good comp.

[SPEAKER_02]: Jake Mangum, who...

[SPEAKER_02]: Very happy to have a podcast seed.

[SPEAKER_02]: And there's a really good defender.

[SPEAKER_02]: Francisco Mejia, who was a bust washout prospect in a chendry Vargas in the lowest levels of the miners.

[SPEAKER_02]: So the only guys that had 330 woeb is her above with a chase rate like that.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's just it's a lot of things.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, it is not, you know, a precursor to success, obviously, when you have this kind of approach.

[SPEAKER_02]: And 40% is substantially above sort of the trouble zone.

[SPEAKER_02]: That like once you get the 31, 32, you're probably swinging into a lot of outs.

[SPEAKER_02]: You get into 40, and then you start to see some of these hitters that we saw, like Noel Rodriguez, et cetera.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's not a group that you necessarily want to be around.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I think just kind of put it into perspective.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's an awesome burner that pain is on right now.

[SPEAKER_02]: The reason that we haven't gone crazy on this one or really reacted to it much is because there are massive red flags that are just waving in your face anytime you kind of dig into this profile.

[SPEAKER_01]: So good on him.

[SPEAKER_01]: So we've got one more slugger that we're going to talk about.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then we're going to get into a little bit of a different profile.

[SPEAKER_01]: We'll do that right after this quick break.

[SPEAKER_01]: And we're back.

[SPEAKER_01]: And okay, we're gonna hit one more slaughter.

[SPEAKER_01]: This one Jeff, this was yours.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is Jason Chievon, the catcher for the Astros.

[SPEAKER_01]: Promoted to double a second in the minors, I believe right now, 22 home runs right behind Manuel Pena.

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, give us the case four, and maybe the case for why there's still a little bit of skepticism with him.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think it's a great scouting story.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, that's that's one thing I think sometimes, I was talking with someone on the Cape last week in Old Timer.

[SPEAKER_02]: And kind of saying, you know, one of the things that gets lost now is, you know, some of the scouting stories of old, right, of finding guys kind of off the beaten path.

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, now every name is online with one click, you can go to our list or others, and you're probably see 500 names in February or March.

[SPEAKER_02]: There's not a lot of secrets in areas anymore.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I think when a team does find a reasonable prospect, they don't have to be a future MLB regular.

[SPEAKER_02]: But a prospect that ranks in your system, that has upside that potentially has some trade value, I think that's a credit to a great scouting job.

[SPEAKER_02]: And they landed this guy in the 11th round of the 2024 draft that James Madison had a brief debut, had kind of a,

[SPEAKER_02]: Okay season last year.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's a 121 WRC plus but the power didn't show like it was this year.

[SPEAKER_02]: He ran a 37% strikeout rate with an obnoxiously high walk rate of 21.9%.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now kind of fast forward to this year.

[SPEAKER_02]: And we're seeing this plus power for she have owned really play up.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, it's a 110.690th percentile.

[SPEAKER_02]: He has hit a ball 115.5 this year.

[SPEAKER_02]: It is a 95.4 mile per hour.

[SPEAKER_02]: average exit velocity.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now, that does come with significant hit tool risk.

[SPEAKER_02]: And that is really what the question is.

[SPEAKER_02]: We're talking about some of the best impacts, some of the best Wolba Khan kind of batting in the game of a guy when you're just looking at metrics, you're just looking at pure quality of contact.

[SPEAKER_02]: There are a few players in professional baseball that are putting up the type of quality of contact.

[SPEAKER_02]: that she evokes is.

[SPEAKER_02]: The issue is she evoned is not consistently make that contact, therefore lies kind of the rub on this one.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I mean, it's a near 30% zone mist rate.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's 60% contact rate overall.

[SPEAKER_02]: He does mitigate some of that with really good swing decisions.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's a 16% chase rate to just under 40% walk.

[SPEAKER_02]: He is fairly aggressive in the zone.

[SPEAKER_02]: discern balls and strikes very well, which is typical of a catcher.

[SPEAKER_02]: You are just seeing a lot more baseball, so over the course of your life than a guy who's a short time from that angle.

[SPEAKER_02]: Exactly.

[SPEAKER_02]: Exactly.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you got to stop your seeing them, but they're going away from you here.

[SPEAKER_02]: You're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you

[SPEAKER_02]: there is legitimate ability to stick behind the plate.

[SPEAKER_02]: You hear that from scouts outside the organization internally.

[SPEAKER_02]: They're very high in his future in terms of a catcher.

[SPEAKER_02]: There's another guy in the system.

[SPEAKER_02]: Will Bush, who's an excellent bat, who's technically a catcher kind of a name only.

[SPEAKER_02]: The feeling internally and externally is that he's not a catcher where I think she have owned kind of pops up this year and it's like, okay, this guy is a good receiver.

[SPEAKER_02]: There's some throwing ability here, blocking ability handle, stitching staffs well, all that sort of thing.

[SPEAKER_02]: The bar to clear as a catcher offensively is much, much lower.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I think if you have this kind of power,

[SPEAKER_02]: and you have on base ability, you can probably deal with some of the strikeouts and whiffs here, then you could other places.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, if Spencer Jones was a, was a everyday catcher, he probably isn't the big leagues two years ago or a year ago.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, they're coming to Ian on this, but my point with that is, it really fits perfectly the backup catcher profile, right, which is most teams want their backup catcher.

[SPEAKER_01]: They will live with a

[SPEAKER_01]: 30, sometimes 20 hit tool, if you're good defensively and you'll run into some power, like they would much, most teams for whatever reason would prefer to have that to the guy who has a 50 hit tool as your backup catcher with 20 power.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like they would much rather have the power and okay, yes, you're just not going to hit that much, but Ian, you had to some thoughts about this as well.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I just didn't just that.

[SPEAKER_00]: And besides Jeff was saying, his EVs are like nutty nutty.

[SPEAKER_00]: He ranks second among all 23-year-olds in terms of 90th percentile EVs.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's fourth and hard hit rate amongst all 23-year-olds.

[SPEAKER_00]: So compared to his peers, he's at the top.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like we're talking about EVs up there with the only person ahead of him is a manual or not read you guys.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think we've talked endlessly about how much impactability he has.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think the thing that gives me more confidence in him, even though there are officers or questions about his head tool, is he does seem like someone in watching some video and said, or he can get to be well.

[SPEAKER_00]: He can do damage against velocity, which is I think something with a backup catcher, especially I feel like there are often guys with a kind of slower bat, it's more, you know, they'll run into a few home runs, but they kind of get tricked up by VLO.

[SPEAKER_00]: Or off-speed pitches and it's just like he makes good swing decisions like he's been a he's shown so far that he can't hit wheel So yeah, I think he he's a really interesting guy and there's system especially largely because he has a picture So

[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to next go to a guy very different profile, but I'll lay this out because this is one where we'll be there some overlap because Ian does the twins for us now and I've done the twins for us in past years.

[SPEAKER_01]: And Ben Ross is a guy who the twins have always kind of liked, you know, the, you know, good defender, but

[SPEAKER_01]: He hit kind of a double a wall, reach double a, the very end of 2023, hit 226, 306, 226, those 10 games, okay, whatever.

[SPEAKER_01]: Goes back there in 24 and hits 212, 284, 341.

[SPEAKER_01]: That was 123 games, that's, that's a little bit more of, okay, that's a real sample there.

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, let's send him back to Wichita again in 25, 219, 308, 363, okay.

[SPEAKER_01]: When you are at 250 plus AA games and you are a good defender but you have basically a 630 ops pretty much for for that long of a stretch you're probably there's a pretty strong feeling that you're probably not going to hit.

[SPEAKER_01]: But what does he do this year?

[SPEAKER_01]: 424 528 797 in a brief stint in Wichita promoted to St. Paul, where he has not been the same level of that, no one hits 424 over course for you, but it has been very solid, 822 ops at St. Paul as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, Ian, when you look at kind of

[SPEAKER_01]: When you say there's skepticism, I would say that generally when you talk about a 25-year-old who was back at the same level for the start for a fourth year in a row that he's been there, you start with massive levels of skepticism, but I feel like within Ross, we're edging towards okay, some of that skepticism starting to float away a little bit.

[SPEAKER_00]: Definitely, and I think the reason is, and it's large as something that we're not going to see when we look into that line this year, it's his defense.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is a guy who's a legit short song.

[SPEAKER_00]: There are some people who think he's a better short song than Mayor Custon and I know JJ and I talked on here about Mayor Custon's defensive ability.

[SPEAKER_00]: Ross is right up there.

[SPEAKER_00]: I was just looking at some numbers.

[SPEAKER_00]: this season between he's played shortstop their base in center field.

[SPEAKER_00]: He has two errors this year on in what is that about 55 games at the position.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, and that's why I'll play two premium positions and third base.

[SPEAKER_00]: So,

[SPEAKER_00]: This is a guy who just, he's an excellent defender.

[SPEAKER_00]: He can play three different positions in the middle.

[SPEAKER_00]: He could play second base.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm sure too if they wanted him to.

[SPEAKER_00]: But he has that defensive value to fall back on and now the bat has started to come in life.

[SPEAKER_00]: And even though as JD said, he slowed down a little bit in AAA, what he's doing in AAA is perfectly fine for him, given his profile.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like the EVs are up, the swing decisions have gotten better, the underlying data is just just better across the board, you know, it's in the above average chase rate, above average in zone miss, hard hit rate is way up, this your EVs are up as I said.

[SPEAKER_00]: And you can find that with that defensive backbone in the fall back on, and you have a guy who can easily envision being utility player, who's probably close to Big League right at you.

[SPEAKER_00]: And for someone who has jaded with four straight years in AA, he's been on protecting a little five for multiple years, you know.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is a guy now who's a very legitimate prospect and I wouldn't be surprised to all to see him up with the twins at some point this season.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's a pretty remarkable turnaround.

[SPEAKER_01]: But again, I think one of the things that we're kind of seeing as kind of a consistent trend on these is, and if I look back at the players who kind of took the big step forward, the ones who stock one of the things that does stand out with them is a Jake Croninworth Typhrance, a David Fletcher.

[SPEAKER_01]: Those are guys, Ryan McMahon.

[SPEAKER_01]: Having defensive value gives you a much better chance to prove it's not a fluke.

[SPEAKER_01]: that prove it's not a one year blip than it is if you're a guy who's a bat only profile.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's something that really does stand out here as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: I kind of with you like there was a reason that we kind of kept asking about Ben Ross a year after year because

[SPEAKER_01]: He's one of those guys who defensively was valuable enough that he wasn't going to have to hit a ton.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think he's going to hit a ton.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think that he's going to still.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think he's more than a utility guy in the big leagues.

[SPEAKER_01]: But that utility profile now seems very plausible, especially.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's also just lay out.

[SPEAKER_01]: We've talked about it before the season and a couple of commenters yelled at us like, what are you saying?

[SPEAKER_01]: Brooks Lee's not a big league shortstop.

[SPEAKER_01]: I will say again, Brooks Lee is not a big league shortstop.

[SPEAKER_01]: Good player, but that's not his role.

[SPEAKER_01]: And we've seen this with the twins this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: They just don't have like really

[SPEAKER_01]: a big league or like Ryan Criedler has been their best defense of shortstop at the big league level.

[SPEAKER_01]: They've already kind of gone through the, okay, the stock at RC is not going to be the answer.

[SPEAKER_01]: They've moved Brooks Lee off the position.

[SPEAKER_01]: I would say that, you know, coming up, we have Kale and Cole preppers made improvements and we have been Ross.

[SPEAKER_01]: There may be the time at some point this year because they if they need gloves, those are the guys who actually probably are better than some of the guys they've had doing it at the big league level.

[SPEAKER_00]: I look at someone like Isaiah kind of fell off on, he has a long, majorly career doing this similar skill set.

[SPEAKER_00]: And if you can play up the middle multiple positions and hold your own with the play and Ross didn't clear that second bar heading into this year, now he does.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that's yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: Defense guests are there, offense keeps you there.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think he's now at that point where he can check both those boxes.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that is another of these unherited prospects having big years.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to hit a couple more of these.

[SPEAKER_01]: By the way, we are going to make a little bit of audible.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think I said at the start of the show, we're going to talk about rookie ball guys too.

[SPEAKER_01]: We'll do that next week because this is already going to be of a full show just talking about these kind of under the guys who've had really big years who are a little bit less on the radar coming into the year.

[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll do that next week as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: But we'll do that right after this quick break.

[SPEAKER_01]: And we're back.

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, this one to me, less heralded prospects is probably not a great way to describe the Lonnie White Jr.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'd say that because he was very much like a heralded prospect when he was drafted signed by the pirates.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is the guy who was part of when the type pirates move money around.

[SPEAKER_01]: He was a two sports star in high school, got big money, and I think you could really say one of the most unfortunate things with Lonnie White was, is just he really did have trouble staying on the field.

[SPEAKER_01]: That was probably one of the biggest problems in his development.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was the number of injuries there.

[SPEAKER_01]: Last ranked on our top 30, you know, coming into the season

[SPEAKER_01]: Start with caveats.

[SPEAKER_01]: Reach Greensboro in 24, hit 167, 275, 340, maybe nine games.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's not good, that's not what you want to see.

[SPEAKER_01]: Went back to Greensboro in 2025, 22329, 394, back for try three this year, 298, 413, 595.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I would say more importantly, got the promotion to AA Al tuna, 295, 398, 552.

[SPEAKER_01]: He has 13 homers in 53 games this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: his career high is 14 homers he's going to easily break that if he stays healthy.

[SPEAKER_01]: Jeff, how much of this is we're finally seeing the talent come that we've long expected to be here kind of rise and through the injuries and through the development and how much of it though is now okay he's 23 years old he was at high until recently pumped the brakes a little bit.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think to an extent, both things can be true.

[SPEAKER_02]: We can be like cautiously optimistic and reasonably skeptical with white.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's always, you know, it is a colder weather background you know, is from, I think the filly area, because he went to Malvern, probably I guess Southern Jersey, still Southern, you know, kind of filly area.

[SPEAKER_02]: So was like a northeast cold weather prospect.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think we've seen with Josh Bias that it can take a few years, especially if there is a multi-sport background, a guy who has big athleticism and is going to swing for impact and power, it can take a little longer for the hit tool to sort of come along.

[SPEAKER_02]: Looking at the 2025 version of Lonnie White, it wasn't great.

[SPEAKER_02]: the 60% percent contact rate overall 40% misrate, you know, under 70% in zone, which is awful.

[SPEAKER_02]: It was a 32% zone misrate last year.

[SPEAKER_02]: Always kind of had that three true profile out or three true outcomes kind of profile with good swing decisions.

[SPEAKER_02]: The EVs were always good.

[SPEAKER_02]: They're still really, really good.

[SPEAKER_02]: But I think the year over year differences within those plate scale metrics.

[SPEAKER_02]: the chase rate has even gotten better than it was and it wasn't bad a year ago.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's very aggressive in zone.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's not an incredibly low.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's a 43.7% sling rate to like 18.7% chase rate, which is a really good gap.

[SPEAKER_02]: And that's kind of highlighted by a 75% heart sling, which is a really good number in zone.

[SPEAKER_02]: That means he is truly discerning balls and strikes as we talked about, which he evoned.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's an important thing when you have a little bit

[SPEAKER_02]: is to kind of mitigate that swing and miss risk with good swing decisions, swinging at the right pitches, swinging at pitches that you can do damage, not taking a lot of pitches down the middle of the play for strikes as well.

[SPEAKER_02]: Because your bath's going to already probably put you behind in some counts from time to time.

[SPEAKER_02]: So you're working with an advantage more often.

[SPEAKER_02]: You're at bath's when you're working with an advantage, just simply go a lot better.

[SPEAKER_02]: When you make more contact, and you have the kind of contact that Lonnie White has, any of what is his molots or a stuff?

[SPEAKER_02]: the batting average on balls and play continue to tick up as well.

[SPEAKER_02]: All that stuff is going to work.

[SPEAKER_02]: So do I know if this is going to work long term?

[SPEAKER_02]: The jury still out there.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think we have to see a larger sample in the upper minors of him having success and showing these trends were in a blip.

[SPEAKER_02]: That there is maybe now 40 contact is opposed to 30 or worse, which is what we were kind of looking at in terms of the 20, 80 scale

[SPEAKER_02]: But the impacts here, this wing decisions are here, the angles are here.

[SPEAKER_02]: If you can maintain this, I think that we're probably looking at, you know, potential for an everyday guy or, you know, an interesting, uh, second division regular type.

[SPEAKER_02]: He kind of went from not really a prospect any longer to somebody that where you're like, okay, there could be something here.

[SPEAKER_02]: If you continue to do it throughout the season, he could potentially move that ceiling up in that viewpoint, probably a little bit.

[SPEAKER_02]: But there's some good things here I think to focus on.

[SPEAKER_02]: There's also a reason to be skeptical just based on a track record and a type of player is.

[SPEAKER_01]: I know we're being repetitive, but that's what we're trying to say is we've done this a long time.

[SPEAKER_01]: Basically, you're trying to sift through.

[SPEAKER_01]: If there are three of these guys who kind of fit this profile, I would say that one ends up being like, okay, it's a true talent improvement.

[SPEAKER_01]: Another ends up being a, okay, there was some improvement, but at the same, it made up into an up and down guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: And the third guy, it's like, no, it was a blip of where everything came together, but it doesn't stick.

[SPEAKER_01]: Ian, I feel like that we're giving a perfect ad for why you should subscribe to baseball america.com.

[SPEAKER_01]: You wrote also about Lonnie Wedge.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you're enjoying this topic, Ian wrote about a lot of these guys last week in his one compelling non-top 10 prospect for each organization.

[SPEAKER_01]: And you wrote about Lonnie Wedge in your as well, what did you kind of come to a conclusion of?

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, he was one of the most interesting.

[SPEAKER_00]: He was the one I think I spent the most time watching video of, because he's got such an intriguing background.

[SPEAKER_00]: This guy's been around since 2021.

[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, he was a high-pattery guy coming out of the draft and just combination of injuries and performance of really slow and down.

[SPEAKER_00]: But really stood out to me as since he's been promoted to AA, he's performing with margin similarly to what he was doing in high A.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, a slugging percentage of OBP and average are down like a take, but not really that much difference.

[SPEAKER_00]: The only real big difference is the strikeout rate is in high A, it was 21% it's jumped up to 31% in double A.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's what I'm kind of monitoring and what is what Jeff said, you know, the hit tool is going to be the is where the variance comes from here with him.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, if you can get to a 40 hit tool is probably a regular if he stays in the 30s.

[SPEAKER_00]: probably a bench guy, and if it's a 20 which it was coming into this year, he's probably, you know, just an upper minus depth guy.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's the kind of swing here.

[SPEAKER_00]: And the good news with White kind of like what we talked about with Ross is he does have secondary skills to fall back on.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is guy who's really good athlete.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's a plus to better runner and he has a chance.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's a pretty good center field.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm saying to above average plus defense in the health field.

[SPEAKER_00]: So there are some skills to fall back on here.

[SPEAKER_00]: but, you know, right, right guy with that profile, you're gonna have to hit in some capacity, it's harder to stick on a roster in that role.

[SPEAKER_00]: So if he can, you know, show the contact skills and even if he's like a 30% strikeout rate guy, he probably does get to the big league still because of his combination of power, speed, and defense.

[SPEAKER_00]: But just yeah, I can't regress too much further back now that he's in double-eye.

[SPEAKER_01]: So the last one of these that we are going to do does not fit that defensive profile, I have to say.

[SPEAKER_01]: But Jeff, again Jeff does the BlueJay, Sean Keys, third-base bin slash first-base bin.

[SPEAKER_01]: I would say more first-base bin slash third-base bin.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're listing it as a first-base bin.

[SPEAKER_01]: On the graphic for people watching on YouTube,

[SPEAKER_01]: Keys has got to hit, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: Jeff, that's kind of this is again going back to this is a guy who the value is tied to the bat, but good news, he's hitting.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and I think this was one that all throughout the off season, we sort of talked about a little bit about how much he kind of underperformed his metrics last year in Vancouver, which by the way, he wasn't the only guy that that was the case.

[SPEAKER_02]: I had kind of pointed to Nimala's strike-out rate and contact rates and all that sort of stuff.

[SPEAKER_02]: really trending upward last year, but him not performing for months despite not swinging a missing, it wasn't a matter of like the contact or the hits we'll bottoming out.

[SPEAKER_02]: Um, I don't know what was going on there, but when you kind of look at his numbers from last year, it's not that different from what you're looking at this year.

[SPEAKER_02]: In fact, might you can be a little bit better for last year, of course, it's at a lower level, um, but there is sort of average to fringe average contact here.

[SPEAKER_02]: There is average to sort of fringe average swing decisions.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's a little bit more aggressive, but not someone who's consistently hitting a swinging himself into outs.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'd say the biggest difference between this year and last year, Sean Kees has gotten much stronger and is hitting the ball much harder.

[SPEAKER_02]: His average EV last year was 90 miles per hour.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's up to 93.4.

[SPEAKER_02]: His 90th percentile last year was 104.8.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's jumped to 109.3 this year.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's hit a ball 115.8.

[SPEAKER_02]: So all intents and purposes, a 116 on the record.

[SPEAKER_02]: Last year as Max was 112.

[SPEAKER_02]: He has a 55% hard hit rate this season.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's pulling the air consists of pulling the ball in the air consistently.

[SPEAKER_02]: There's a lot of good things going on here, but he is really going to have to hit because it is a limited defense of profile.

[SPEAKER_02]: That said, this is not necessarily new territory for the Blue Jays.

[SPEAKER_02]: They've had some success with these.

[SPEAKER_02]: less lower pedigree guys that they've drafted or acquired, whether it's like Tanango who's having a really good season and has been up with the big league club this year.

[SPEAKER_02]: Davis Schneider who for a few years was kind of a productive bench bat for the Blue Jays.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think he's back in AAA.

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if he's kind of right in the Buffalo to Toronto train.

[SPEAKER_02]: Quite a bit this season, but

[SPEAKER_02]: all guys that kind of have performed beyond what their pedigree was and what the acquisition cost is.

[SPEAKER_02]: Keys can hit.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's just a matter of where do you stick them and is he really going to hit enough to be?

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, a first baseman in the big leagues that gets 400 plus played appearances.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm not sure that I can, I can necessarily answer that at this moment, but it is a left-handed bat.

[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, if it leans more toward the platoon side, he is a strong, strong side platoon option.

[SPEAKER_02]: So,

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if this is an everyday regular or probably air on the side that it's not, but I do think that he'll certainly be in the big leagues at some point over the next couple of years and has the ability to hit and has the ability to hit for power so you can't ignore that.

[SPEAKER_01]: The best way I would put it is is that most of the time when you see this profile and it's the guy if really like

[SPEAKER_01]: If you're Sean Key's great development this year, what you said, the first thing to do, hit them all a lot harder.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's never a bad thing, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: So that really does give you a much clearer path.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you said, okay, so what's the off season to do list for next year, become playable at third base?

[SPEAKER_01]: Cause I think if he could get to a 45 defensively at third base where you become a left-handed hitting

[SPEAKER_01]: option at two spots, your path to carving out 300 big league plate appearances a year is exponentially clearer than if you're the guy who is a first base only first base DH profile.

[SPEAKER_01]: Those guys.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's you can find your way to a hundred plate appearances every now and then because the big league or gets hurt, you come up, you hit a little bit, you get stick around for another couple of weeks afterwards and to you cool off, those kind of things.

[SPEAKER_01]: But there just aren't a whole lot of,

[SPEAKER_01]: There aren't a whole lot of non, like, thumpers who get to stick at first base day in day out and it's sticking the big leagues for a full season.

[SPEAKER_01]: Unless you really, again, you either play another position or you've got a really mash and it's hard to,

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, or you mashed at some point, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: Like, the Paul Goldsmith said the world can stick around for a while because, hey, once you are like an MVP caliber player, then you kind of have your off ramp.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's a lot harder.

[SPEAKER_01]: We could sit here and just play the game of remember some guys and probably write a lot of 25.

[SPEAKER_01]: first baseman over the years who had good numbers in double-eye triple-eye, and I'll one of the guys who had one of those big emergencies with Luke and Baker, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: Luke and Baker was a dude in college.

[SPEAKER_01]: He led basically had a year where he hit 330 in triple-eye with 33 bombs, but it's kind of been up and down guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: Why?

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, he's a first-based only type, and it's really

[SPEAKER_00]: No, I agree with everything that Jeff said.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that what you said though, with the defensive versatility, that's going to be the key for him.

[SPEAKER_00]: I wouldn't be surprising all if they gave him a left field or an outfield and so I'll have to see them look like in left fields, because again, if you can even fake it out there, that's just being versus Iowa is very important, especially with the way the blue jays are playing.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think you got the Ningo.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, they're running a bunch between.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: not great no and so yeah I mean they're running a bunch of putudes they're playing a bunch of guys who are not great defenders of positions they probably shouldn't be playing but if you minimize exposure you can make that work and I think Jerome is a very well-run team they're very smart team and and I think that's something that we could see in these future especially if you continue to hit because since he's been up the trip away he's been really good and if that continues especially with the blue jays line of kind of stumbling lately I wonder if if he would be on someone that may be over the summer because of the picture

[SPEAKER_01]: So those are six performing hitting prospects who are a little bit lower down, a little bit less on the radar.

[SPEAKER_01]: And we wanted to cover why some of them kind of are still at the back of this and why some are really moving up on top thirties.

[SPEAKER_01]: And again, there's a little bit of a balance here.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's a push and pull.

[SPEAKER_01]: We want to

[SPEAKER_01]: acknowledge we want to gather information, move these guys up, but at the same time we don't want to get overheated because we also know we just named six of these if we went back and listen to this five years from now my prediction is I want to see what you guys think mine is is that one of these guys will be like wow that guy ended up really being

[SPEAKER_01]: A, I don't want to say a five warrior player or anything like that, but that guy ended up being someone who's still in the big leagues is that 1500 played appearances has had some two three war seasons type there's going to be one of those there's probably going to be one or two more who it's like that guy had a good year here that year was not so good he's been up and down, but he's kind of been right a big leader.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then probably going to be two guys where it's like, oh, okay, remember when you had that bait that great year, and then it's never turned anything, I kind of feel like that's kind of generally how this when we say we have to have some skepticism one third one third one third or I'd say more like one fifth big league regular one fifth one six of these.

[SPEAKER_01]: Two, six, one, third is going to be big leagueers of some sort.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then probably two or three of these guys will be guys who either get a cup of coffee or our longer time minor league kind of vets kind of guys.

[SPEAKER_01]: Is that too skeptical?

[SPEAKER_01]: Am I being too cynical?

[SPEAKER_01]: Or is that makes sense to you guys?

[SPEAKER_00]: No, I think that makes sense.

[SPEAKER_00]: I was kind of feeling unreasonable.

[SPEAKER_00]: You'll get one, 50, they'll be a couple of 40s and there's going to be a couple of 30s in this period.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's probably like the likely distribution.

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, we'll finish this with one more if you're going to pick one guy off of this group that we talked about who is going to be a 50 who's going to be a multi your big league regular out of this group who would it be.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'll go first because I have mine already it's going to be a year's my thought yeah, I was going I was going to suit a game I think we all agree I think we all think the animators.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think the teachers have a huge leg out.

[SPEAKER_01]: the framing, the arm, and I would say, like, look, Owen here's not going to keep performing at the lovely performing right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: If he does, he's going to be a big league star.

[SPEAKER_01]: But if you cut,

[SPEAKER_01]: 30% off of this, you know, the 30% haircut at the big league level, he's still a switching and catcher who frames well as a good arm, who could be a legitimate catcher, switching and catchers who can hit even a little bit have a pretty good way to stick around.

[SPEAKER_01]: So to me, I think that's that's the pretty obvious one.

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, I would say if you asked me like most big league at bats about the rest of this group, I'm probably going to say Ben Ross,

[SPEAKER_01]: because I just feel like that we could turn around and say he never had 250 play appearances in a season, but he had five years in the big leagues because of his defense.

[SPEAKER_00]: But, yeah, kind of... Yeah, big got you reasonable.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I would say, anyone else, we're all strongest career, hot and best peak, I could see airs.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think she alone also is another one.

[SPEAKER_00]: I just think the captain is just having an inherent advantage in this exercise like this, because of how low the bar is.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, talking about switchhead and captures lasting forever, Sandy Leone is still jumping around.

[SPEAKER_00]: There's still in the big leagues.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I think that's not showing some kind of the bar.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you can catch a throw and switchhead, you'll find a job.

[SPEAKER_01]: The other thing I'll say is it also widens out your window of plausibility as a prospect.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's not really a whole lot of 28-year-olds, 29-year-olds reaching the majors at short stop or outfield where you're like, oh, and then they ended up having a long career.

[SPEAKER_01]: There are absolutely 28 year old catchers who like that's their first season in the majors and then you end up looking around and they're still playing at 35 36 because it is again it's that when I have my skepticism about all this which you have to have some again we're not we root for prospects but you also have to be realistic about this for me having seen this over all these years one of the things that really does stand out is is that.

[SPEAKER_01]: catchers is where these leaps can really be real because sometimes I feel like it's just like, you've spent so long just figuring out how to do your main job, which is catch, work with pictures, be a great defender, all those things that finally when you reach a level of not just knowing how to do that mentally and physically but on top of that,

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, like a Liam Hicks is a perfect example.

[SPEAKER_01]: He didn't kind of sit down and slack.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like those kind of guys, where it's like, once you hit that,

[SPEAKER_01]: I think all of a sudden, the game, the hitting part kind of finally starts to become like makes sense because you're like, oh, now that I don't have to spin 100% of my mental and physical effort to do the defensive job of my now I have enough room to actually start to hit.

[SPEAKER_01]: And sometimes we see that.

[SPEAKER_01]: We see guys who 30 year old, 31 year old catchers wherever they're best offensive season.

[SPEAKER_01]: You don't see that a lot as outflowers and chore stops, nowadays.

[SPEAKER_01]: But that is the baseball America prospect podcast for this week.

[SPEAKER_01]: Glad we just kept it to the the performing prospects because we'd have been pulling in a two hour.

[SPEAKER_01]: Again, that's the topic we'll revisit.

[SPEAKER_01]: I believe next week.

[SPEAKER_01]: We have a topic already set for next week.

[SPEAKER_01]: You can look forward for that.

[SPEAKER_01]: But again, check out if you enjoyed this.

[SPEAKER_01]: I promise you, you're going to enjoy everything over at baseball america.com.

[SPEAKER_01]: Ian had multiple people that we talked about today.

[SPEAKER_01]: He wrote about last week, so the B.A.

[SPEAKER_01]: subscriber already has not just some info on these guys, but some info on 25, 26 other guys like this kind of profile.

[SPEAKER_01]: Again, we want to help you kind of sort out which of the which is signal and what is noise.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's one of the things that that's one of our jobs.

[SPEAKER_01]: We do a lot of reporting on that, talking to people in the game, but we also, you know, probably use our own brains as well to kind of help with that.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that is podcast for Ian for Jeff.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm JJ.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's a long everybody.