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[SPEAKER_00]: Hello everybody!

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[SPEAKER_00]: JJ Cooper Carliske Klauso.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Baseball America, draft podcast.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We're getting close, we're getting closer.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We've pushed another top 500 update this week.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Carlos has been busy writing reports, updating reports, I should say more and anything.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But we are moving guys around as we get more feedback at all.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I've written a way fewer reports that I want to write, but I am doing it as I can.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The boss man has plenty of other things to do on top of everything that we could hear.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But I do love the writing reports.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I really do.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's fun to get into the players.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But that's what we're going to do today.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So the draft is not that far away.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And one of the things that we feel like that we I know, I know you're going to hear this.

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[SPEAKER_00]: If you are a regular listener, every week can go, wait, they're talking about Rochalaski and pretty Emerson and Bonlaki again.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And we are.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But I promise you, there's going to be stuff here that I think that even that we haven't discussed before.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Well, at the same time, being very valuable to people who are kind of like, OK, college seasons over,

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[SPEAKER_00]: MBAs over NHLs over now I'm going to pay attention to the MLB draft.

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[SPEAKER_00]: If you're one of those people also, we think there'll be a lot here.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But what we're going to do today is just kind of on each of these three players, kind of make the case four why they could go number one and then what maybe some of the concerns are in all and again, this is a companion podcast and video to a piece that we have up at

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[SPEAKER_00]: goes into much more detail than we can on this on this.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Like this is a podcast in the video.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We would be here for two hours if we were going to just cover everything that we have in the story.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So we're going to, we're going to get you a lot.

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[SPEAKER_00]: This is not going to be something we're going to go.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Rockshelowski, good, take one, get done.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But at the same time, if you enjoy this, I promise you that the piece over at Baseball America will give you even more context perspective on this.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But Carlos, you know, I'm just going to like dive us right in.

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[SPEAKER_00]: The one we got to start with obviously is so we'll have a discussion on this but you make the case for the objective case for why Rochilowski makes sense as the white sucks pick at one one.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think the most straightforward case for Rocholowski at 1-1 is to say he has been the consensus top prospect in this class for a year now.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He possesses four tools that have a chance to be

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[SPEAKER_01]: He has been one of the most productive hitters in college baseball period over the last three years.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's a very short list of players who have been more productive than he has been.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And he comes from a rare demographic.

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[SPEAKER_01]: that makes this talent more unique and more special in the context of the draft.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We don't often see high school short stops of Rochilowski's caliber, who were aware of at the time he's a prospect in the high school, getting to campus in the first place.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That is one of the most appealing demographics for Big League teams.

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[SPEAKER_01]: They draft and sign those players out of high school because of that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The fact that Rochulowski got to college and lived up to and improved his talent level and his potential.

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[SPEAKER_01]: In his three years of college, I think just put him an exceedingly rare territory.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And it almost gives him the sort of upside potential and safety combination that you're dreaming to have if you're picking one one.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I do think Rochulowski is a generational sort of prospect at the top of the class.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He is the best college shortstop prospects and it's probably Troy Tula Witzky, multiple decades ago.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And he checks a lot of boxes.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You're getting upset, you're getting safety, you're getting track record from a shortstop.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That's tremendously valuable.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, I asked on that one.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I would say like, when you say generation, I'm a little bit more reserved on that when as far as Tulaski.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think he's going to be very good.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But when you say since Troy, what do we have, obviously, the Danes Beast wants an Alex Bregg bin year, I would say is kind of the, this really the only year that we have where it's like the top of the draft, you had these multiple, private short stops and consideration, what kind of puts him at a level beyond either of those guys?

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[SPEAKER_01]: look if you wanted to say that you think rock to lasquies in a similar tier to those two players I think that's defensible if you're either lighter on rock to lasquies you have more concerns with him or you were just higher on those two at the time.

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[SPEAKER_01]: From my perspective in my seat I feel like the toolset is more dynamic with rock to lasquies at the same stage.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I feel like I mean, Dan's V. Swanson has been one of the better defensive short subs in baseball.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think rock

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[SPEAKER_01]: the same or better defensive ability at the same stage, his arm is better.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He has more power than probably both of those players at the same stage.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I just want to stand on Breggman coming out.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You never hit 10 numbers in a color right and in both those players there work some questions about where they're playing defensively.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think more at the time.

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[SPEAKER_01]: than we have with rock now, rock did play third basis first year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That college was kind of funny to think back on now, but he has been maybe the best defensive short-saving college baseball over the course of the last two years, and I think you're right to push back on the generational prospect.

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[SPEAKER_01]: designation because if you want to reserve those for the Bryce Harper's and the Stephen Schausberg's of the world, I think that's fair, mostly using that tag for Waka.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think it just comes back to just how rare this sort of profile is.

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[SPEAKER_01]: A college shore stop going one over all just has not happened very much in the history of the draft and it goes back to the fact that the supply of elite high school players at that position,

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[SPEAKER_01]: rarely get to college.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe this will become more common in a draft world that's 20 rounds with an I.L.

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[SPEAKER_01]: There are a lot of different incentives that could make this more likely in the coming years, but I think at least for now, it's just a package of talent, tools, and safety that you just rarely get.

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[SPEAKER_00]: to just lay this out.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Now, I'm not only talking about first-round picks, something else, first-round supplementals, and when you come to position classification for drafties, it's always a little tricky, right?

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[SPEAKER_00]: Spencer Turkelson technically was announced as a third base, but even though no one in the right mind thought that he was going to be a big league third base.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And so you have some little flaws with that.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But there've only been 10, if you look at, I looked at,

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[SPEAKER_00]: for this little study, I'm doing like 2012 to 2020.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So, I kind of wanted to cut it off at a point where we've got a length of their big leaguers.

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[SPEAKER_00]: In that stretch, that's nine drafts.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And there were 10 short stops, college short stops taken in the first round, over that stretch.

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[SPEAKER_00]: That's one of the more the less traveled worlds out there, like if you want to compare this in, there were 12 college first basement taken in the first round, over that time.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So, it is a rare demographic,

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[SPEAKER_00]: There was as many college catchers taken in the first ground and that's not even talking about like top 10 pictures.

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[SPEAKER_00]: That's the first ground.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Even though we had this perception that up the middle college bats are kind of, you know, valued a lot in the first round.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Um, and.

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[SPEAKER_00]: You know, but of that group at the same time, only four of those ten in that study produced positive war.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So that's another thing I would say about this is we also think of this as a very safe demographic.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I would say that in the past we have seen that it's not maybe necessarily as, you know, as safe as some of the other demographics that are out there, although when you hit, like we talk about a dance piece once and you talk about an Alex pregnant.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I feel like some people may say we say dance, we swam so they go, well, you don't want to take dance, it's also one way I have to take dance, it's also one way Every day the way the way the way the way Yes, and I think Yeah, I talk about a lot about the value of rock is in the the short stop profile I think for me that's the cherry on top because I don't want to gloss over just how good of a hitter And how impactful he is just if you look at some of the most productive power hitters

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[SPEAKER_01]: in college baseball rock really brings this elite contact to that conversation that is both rare in this class and just rare in college baseball in general of the group of 47 college hitters in the last three years who have hit 40 home runs.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Only Chris Hacopian's strikeout rate is better than Rock Chalowski's in that time.

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[SPEAKER_01]: His strikeout rate is essentially half of the strikeout rate of that population of player, so it is a potentially elite hit power combination that drives the profile and warrants him being in this conversation to begin with.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's also interesting what this is.

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[SPEAKER_00]: There is some concern about how much he pulls

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[SPEAKER_00]: he actually like if you look at like I look at a lot of times with college hitters and I look at homers and I also look at doubles and triples with that right because doubles and triples are the balls that almost got out generally I mean I know you can hit a ball right down the line this a double but a lot of those are balls that hit off the wall that are in the gap but they're well struck

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[SPEAKER_00]: Rochalowski gets a lot of like his double to homer percentage is very weighted towards home runs.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He, if he gets a ball to drive, it generally clears the fence.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's not something where you say, oh, he's not getting to his power yet, but he will one day.

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[SPEAKER_00]: No, he's, you know, again, in the college environment, he's very much getting to his power right now.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And again, as you said, doing so in a way that isn't been, that he has to sell out to do so.

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[SPEAKER_00]: who drives them all, not a slugger who hopes to make it.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Correct, yeah.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I would say the other part of this is, I think this is going to be the case.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I'll just give you a little bit of a sneak peek.

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[SPEAKER_00]: The reason why all three of these are our players are cannest to go on one.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Partly also is that

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[SPEAKER_00]: I do feel like that if you said, okay, this does not go as we expect right now.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We look back on this 10 years from now, Rochalowski is not a generational player in this approach.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He's probably still a pretty useful, long-term big league, right?

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[SPEAKER_00]: He's, if you said, look at him compared to some of the shorts, like if you compare him to Brooks Lee, who's been up with the twins was a high pick and all that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think Nick Madher all is another good college short step example for this.

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[SPEAKER_00]: all he was really even like in his case you were saying this is probably a second basement is really not a short stop right guys like that you know or uh uh i just blanked on uh his organ state running make the reason that Nick badger go played second base was another uh i'm pin Grenier yeah that was a guy who's like okay he's gonna hit enough like there's guys like this

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[SPEAKER_00]: So, if you know, I'm like a say worst case scenario, but the disappointing scenario for Rock-Chillowski is, is that you just love, let's say you love a grade off of every single thing that he does, that's still a long-term productive big leaker.

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[SPEAKER_00]: If you say, oh, I was a grade too high on the hit and the power and the field and the throw.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, maybe not the speed, the speed's the speed and it's not really at the gas at front.

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[SPEAKER_00]: You click everything else down.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He'd still be a guy that you'd be like, is this guy regular for us?

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, absolutely.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think the one area that maybe you could say how could things go wrong for Rock Chillowski probably centers on his lack of wood, wood bat track record.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think this is probably true for a lot of players in this class.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We've mentioned it on this podcast before, but his wood bat track record in college is basically non-existent and to the degree that it does exist, he's not been a great hitter.

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[SPEAKER_01]: with what he struggled in a 17-game stint in Orland's and the Cape Codley in 2024.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He did not hit well as part of a team USA team that collectively didn't hit well against Japan a year ago.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And so he didn't have to, he did hit 33 as five games before they went to Japan.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So we'll give him that if you're just looking at the table.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, if you're just looking at the five games, I think you had one hit in that stretch it now.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It was a homer, so maybe we're going to see that, but I think if you're in when we get into how could it go wrong for these players, they are going to be nitpicks inherently because these are top of the class players for a reason.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But there are some questions about kind of how Chalowski's

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[SPEAKER_01]: swing works from the most critical scouts I talked to he gets pretty close to a full arm bar that is a bit of a red flag for some scouts depending on how you're bearing down on hitting mechanics and how this swing works.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He's never pulled the ball in the air to an extreme degree.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You mentioned that

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[SPEAKER_01]: He doesn't struggle to get to his power, and I think if you wanted to compare him to a Dylan Cruz, he still does have a much higher fly ball rate and a much lower ground ball rate throughout college than Dylan Cruz did at the time.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But I think that would probably be your how can it go wrong scenario.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We just miss really significantly on the pure hitting ability and then

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[SPEAKER_01]: you could probably see scenarios like you mentioned where he's still productive because the defense is exceptional.

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[SPEAKER_01]: There is power there.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He's playing your premium position.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So I think good fallback options, but maybe if you do miss on the hit tool, you could be looking at one of these other two players who are looking at and saying, hey, why don't we take one of those?

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[SPEAKER_00]: That's the example Dancy Swanson.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Dancy Swanson has not had the hit tool that you maybe you would have projected coming out of college.

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[SPEAKER_00]: That's by Alex Breggman, I think overall, has probably been a little bit of a better player.

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[SPEAKER_00]: His hit tool's been better.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But at the same time, Dancy Swanson is a 30-war career player because you're in your out.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He is a slam dunk plus defender at short.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And that gives you just such value.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And I will say like, that's where it's like,

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[SPEAKER_00]: If Dylan Cruz who has been disappointing obviously so far, still young in his career, but if Dylan Cruz had this kind of defensive profile, it would be a much different story, like that's kind of the the question.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So that's Rochalowski.

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[SPEAKER_00]: After the break, we'll dive into the other college player who we think of as in this top tier, Von Lackey.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We'll do that right after this quick break.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So Carlos, we're back, and I'll take Von Lackey.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I wouldn't have to lay out the case for Von Lackey.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So Von Lackey this year, I would say, had a year that you just don't see from college catchers as a general rule.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's a great year for college catchers in the class, not just for this class, but we also had a lot of college catchers in next year's class, who had great years, but

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[SPEAKER_00]: You look at what he did.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He hit 397, 519, 772, 20 home runs, 15 stolen bases, more walks and strikeouts.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And on top of that, whip back and reading our scout notes, right?

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[SPEAKER_00]: If you're just kind of laying the progression of on-lucky.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Everyone liked Von Lackey, everyone liked Von Lackey coming into the year, really liked him.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And the scouting report after his sophomore season was, this guy can really catch.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He's really athletic back there.

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[SPEAKER_00]: This is a potential goal glover.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He's got an arm.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He handles the staff well.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He does everything you want to see behind the plate.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I just worry about if he's going to ever hit for any power.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And I just worry about how much he's going to hit.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And

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[SPEAKER_00]: That seems now coming off of the season that I just laid out to be like, we probably don't talk about his defense enough.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Partly that is because catching defense as an amateur is a very difficult.

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[SPEAKER_00]: skill to evaluate.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I've known many veteran scouts, very veteran scouts.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's really hard because it's just so different.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I do think, and I'm curious what you think about this, I don't know that Von Lacke's catcher defense is hard to evaluate because it's so apparent to everyone that he's excellent there.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think that

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[SPEAKER_01]: the the trickier elements of catcher valuation seems to be in that middle ground we're saying like is this catcher good or bad fringy or above average is a good catcher but but I do feel like catchers like Patrick Bailey coming up when he was in high school it was very apparent he was in a lead defensive.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Adley Rushley

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[SPEAKER_01]: Adly Rushman, very parent.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The physical tools, the intangibles, I think the most elite amateur catchers kind of show themselves to be that at a very young age.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Von Lacke, I feel like, is in that tier.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I don't say this hyperbolicly when I say the way that Scouts are talking about Von Lacke is every bit as impressive as the way Scouts talked about Patrick Bailey as a defender at the same stage in college.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And so if you lay that out, like, okay, so why would he be one one?

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[SPEAKER_00]: Well, I mean, that does put you into, he just had a season this year that would put him, I would say that would compare favorably or at least comparably.

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[SPEAKER_00]: You talked about with Rock and we compared him to Braggman and Swanson and Tula Whiskey.

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[SPEAKER_00]: You really kind of have to go back to Adley Rushman to find a catcher, a college catcher, at a top-notch program who performed like this.

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[SPEAKER_00]: both behind the plate and at the plate in their draft gear.

17:08.920 --> 17:12.242
[SPEAKER_00]: Like this is a impeccable season defensively.

17:12.523 --> 17:14.904
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's again, that's not a new development.

17:14.964 --> 17:18.686
[SPEAKER_00]: That's much like with Adly, Rushman, where it was like, this guy's a great athlete.

17:18.966 --> 17:20.127
[SPEAKER_00]: He's really special back here.

17:20.207 --> 17:22.268
[SPEAKER_00]: Anolia, by the way, he also can hit the middle of the line up.

17:22.688 --> 17:23.809
[SPEAKER_00]: Finally, Lackey hits that too.

17:24.349 --> 17:24.569
[SPEAKER_00]: Right.

17:25.370 --> 17:25.590
[SPEAKER_00]: And...

17:26.419 --> 17:28.520
[SPEAKER_00]: you can throw in the hitting that he did this year.

17:29.541 --> 17:34.624
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, I would say with that, like even the concerns that we have, we had the concerns about his power.

17:34.664 --> 17:38.847
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, hitting with metal, and I'm gonna get to the same thing that we talked about for rock.

17:38.867 --> 17:43.330
[SPEAKER_00]: There is, there's not just, there is more wood bat record here with Von Lackey.

17:43.930 --> 17:44.650
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just bad.

17:44.730 --> 17:45.491
[SPEAKER_00]: He's never hit.

17:47.292 --> 17:53.137
[SPEAKER_00]: He went to Sunbelt League coming out of high school before his freshman year at Georgia Tech and he hit under 200.

17:53.618 --> 17:58.282
[SPEAKER_00]: He went to the North Woods League in the year between his freshman and sophomore years and he hit under 200.

17:58.802 --> 18:08.111
[SPEAKER_00]: He then did six games in the Cape in addition to the eight games I think he played for C&D for the college national team and he hit under 200 and the six games in the Cape.

18:08.171 --> 18:11.253
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, these are small snippets, but you could say,

18:12.376 --> 18:14.318
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, there's two parts.

18:14.338 --> 18:17.500
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm gonna kind of talk down, spoke explain the other side.

18:18.641 --> 18:22.924
[SPEAKER_00]: If you wanna say, okay, what could go wrong here with Lacky?

18:23.945 --> 18:30.891
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think the wrong here is still gonna be very good, but it's hard to imagine.

18:32.049 --> 18:32.810
[SPEAKER_00]: Von Lackey.

18:33.350 --> 18:41.078
[SPEAKER_00]: Joy Bart has been, who has another Georgia Tech catcher, who has viewed, I would say, as a very disappointing number to pick.

18:41.518 --> 18:42.459
[SPEAKER_00]: I get that completely.

18:43.578 --> 18:57.307
[SPEAKER_00]: But Joey Bart, when we get done at the end of the day, we're going to look back on Joey Bart, who never has been a star and he's like that, but he's probably going to have six hundred seven hundred eight hundred or more big league games.

18:57.907 --> 18:59.588
[SPEAKER_00]: He is a positive war player.

19:00.108 --> 19:06.532
[SPEAKER_00]: He is someone where as much as he's not really kind of grabbed, he's been kind of pushed aside now by two teams.

19:09.234 --> 19:11.116
[SPEAKER_00]: this guy's better than this guy moving on.

19:11.496 --> 19:15.780
[SPEAKER_00]: The Pirates thing got him, they have a ton of catchers and they're like, yeah, he's kind of our spare part.

19:16.061 --> 19:19.864
[SPEAKER_00]: Now the Braves acquired him and the Braves are not looking for him to be, they've got Drake Baldwin.

19:19.884 --> 19:21.606
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not there every day due to anything like that.

19:21.766 --> 19:21.946
[SPEAKER_00]: Right.

19:22.026 --> 19:22.267
[SPEAKER_00]: But.

19:23.680 --> 19:33.866
[SPEAKER_00]: That's kind of like the nightmare scenario for Von Lacke is that he didn't have this track record of hitting before this year like this last year was solid, but his freshman year he didn't hit.

19:34.206 --> 19:37.948
[SPEAKER_00]: He was a good hitter in high school, but he wasn't considered an elite prospect as a hitter.

19:38.508 --> 19:42.871
[SPEAKER_00]: There was concerns, obviously, they've kind of gone away a little bit, but how much bat speed does he have things like that?

19:43.993 --> 19:56.607
[SPEAKER_00]: If you just say the like that, that his evaluation on his hit tool, when you can also throw in the very favorable hitting environment of Georgia Tech, his home road splits are very slanted towards 15 of his 20 homers came at home.

19:56.948 --> 19:58.589
[SPEAKER_00]: All that, lay that all out.

19:59.442 --> 20:02.403
[SPEAKER_00]: And you say, let's say he's two grades worse as a hitter.

20:02.923 --> 20:09.105
[SPEAKER_00]: And two grades worse as a power, his power is, then we think right now.

20:09.605 --> 20:11.825
[SPEAKER_00]: That's a major miss on the evaluation.

20:11.865 --> 20:16.526
[SPEAKER_00]: That is four, like four grades between hit and power two of the most important grades.

20:17.287 --> 20:18.187
[SPEAKER_00]: Even if that happened,

20:18.851 --> 20:29.740
[SPEAKER_00]: I think Von Lackey would have a long and productive big league career because the bar as a good defensive catcher is so low and then if you say he is the hitter we think he is.

20:29.860 --> 20:31.521
[SPEAKER_00]: He is the slugger we think he is.

20:31.942 --> 20:33.323
[SPEAKER_00]: He is the athlete we think he is.

20:33.383 --> 20:41.029
[SPEAKER_00]: This guy played 10 games at third base last year and was very, it wasn't something like why did they have them out there that was just kind of give a little bit of a break and he can do that.

20:41.089 --> 20:43.791
[SPEAKER_00]: Like there's play a scout who think he could play else.

20:44.212 --> 20:45.733
[SPEAKER_00]: You put it all together Carlos and I just think

20:46.962 --> 20:52.388
[SPEAKER_00]: There's just a very high floor here, but also with the ceiling of, look at what an Emily Rushman is best.

20:52.428 --> 20:59.955
[SPEAKER_01]: I think, yeah, the way the way I would put it in kind of a quick sentence is, if he hits, he's a perennial all star.

21:01.132 --> 21:03.854
[SPEAKER_01]: If he doesn't hit, he's still a very valuable big league player.

21:04.214 --> 21:07.596
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, I think Patrick Bailey is pretty useful in pointing to here.

21:07.616 --> 21:12.279
[SPEAKER_01]: Patrick Bailey from 2023 to 2025 was either 20 to 30% worse than the league average hitter and he was still a 2.5.

21:17.222 --> 21:20.823
[SPEAKER_01]: f-war or better player according to fan graphs in those three years.

21:20.863 --> 21:28.725
[SPEAKER_01]: So one of the worst major league hitters still providing two to three war per season because the catching is elite.

21:28.805 --> 21:38.287
[SPEAKER_01]: I think is a realistic path for Von Lackey if the hit tool in the improvements that he shown don't live up to our current expectations.

21:38.307 --> 21:45.189
[SPEAKER_01]: And I do kind of wonder where you stand on that growth because I've talked with Scal to look at a Rock Chalascura Drew Burris sort of career

21:47.049 --> 21:49.250
[SPEAKER_01]: Why haven't you made more progress from from year to year?

21:49.290 --> 22:02.634
[SPEAKER_01]: You kind of set this high baseline and then you maintain it versus a player like Von Lackey who significantly less, less highly talloted in high school, much more dramatic offensive transformation from sophomore year to junior year.

22:03.194 --> 22:09.796
[SPEAKER_01]: Are you more encouraged with that career arc or does the lack of high level performance maybe scare you a bit?

22:09.937 --> 22:13.758
[SPEAKER_01]: I think I tend towards the latter and I also wonder

22:14.518 --> 22:22.804
[SPEAKER_01]: If you look at just for his career Georgia Tech against 93 mile prior pitches or harder, he only has three of his 30 home runs against that velocity.

22:23.224 --> 22:30.570
[SPEAKER_01]: So that in addition to the Woodbat track record that you've talked about, does have me a little bit concerned about the what the pure quality of the hit tool.

22:30.950 --> 22:36.274
[SPEAKER_01]: And I guess not the hit tool, because he's made a lot of contact for multiple years, just the impact of the bow, I'll say.

22:36.774 --> 22:48.842
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's where like the most realistic that this ends up is like, okay, what if he's a 45 50 hitter with 34 35 40 power in the majors, you know, down the road, that's possible, right?

22:48.862 --> 22:58.488
[SPEAKER_00]: Like if these these little signals kind of get stronger to answer your question, I would say that if he had not hit it all last year,

22:59.403 --> 23:00.964
[SPEAKER_00]: I would be much more worried about this, right?

23:01.185 --> 23:05.028
[SPEAKER_00]: Like his freshman year, he hit 2014, 33, 381.

23:05.468 --> 23:10.273
[SPEAKER_00]: If he hit that last year and he said this year came out of nowhere, I'd be like, oh, that's scary.

23:10.953 --> 23:13.976
[SPEAKER_00]: He was a 347, 421, 500 hit or last year.

23:13.996 --> 23:17.299
[SPEAKER_00]: The only thing he didn't do last year towards tech as they're every day catcher.

23:17.679 --> 23:21.202
[SPEAKER_00]: The only thing that it was a sophomore is he had six home runs, this year he had 20.

23:21.463 --> 23:21.743
[SPEAKER_00]: But like,

23:22.951 --> 23:32.255
[SPEAKER_00]: There was really a pretty significant track record there from the standpoint of like, this is the guy who was USA baseball's catcher coming out of his sophomore year.

23:32.275 --> 23:37.197
[SPEAKER_00]: This was not a guy who was like, we looked around and no one had about a board the year before.

23:37.237 --> 23:38.277
[SPEAKER_00]: Now he's the top pick.

23:38.317 --> 23:38.497
[SPEAKER_00]: No.

23:38.757 --> 23:40.458
[SPEAKER_00]: Entering the air was up.

23:40.738 --> 23:41.999
[SPEAKER_01]: We had him in the back of the first round.

23:42.019 --> 23:42.159
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

23:42.219 --> 23:43.699
[SPEAKER_01]: I haven't been right here to help for it right at the back.

23:44.459 --> 23:45.580
[SPEAKER_00]: To finish up with you like,

23:47.388 --> 23:53.711
[SPEAKER_00]: The other thing that I wanted to kind of just point out like one of our pieces we have a piece coming up about this too, like just kind of looking at the demographics of it.

23:54.411 --> 24:01.714
[SPEAKER_00]: I wanted to know this is what kind of started this study is like, I kind of felt like that catchers at the top of the draft and first rounders.

24:02.254 --> 24:05.976
[SPEAKER_00]: College catchers are very risky because you think of Henry Davis.

24:06.576 --> 24:35.834
[SPEAKER_01]: Can you you think of them being it's kind of this like jekyll and hide profile situation where the catching profile is so valuable and super elite but there's also so much of a durability question and like are you going to get hurt how many games you're going to play I feel like there's a wear and tear of the position you see this a lot with just a lead offensive players who might actually be able to catch but team preferred to move those move those lead hitters off the position because they're like hey we need to prioritize the bat we want you to line up every day we think this will be more beneficial for you offensively.

24:36.474 --> 24:38.855
[SPEAKER_01]: It is such a grind of a position.

24:39.275 --> 24:43.836
[SPEAKER_01]: I do think there's a lot of risk you take on just inherently with what you're asking this player to do defensively.

24:45.056 --> 24:50.478
[SPEAKER_00]: Small samples, as we said, I'm looking for 2012 to 2020 and there were 10 college catchers taken over that time.

24:51.818 --> 24:54.939
[SPEAKER_00]: But of those 10, they all made the majors okay.

24:55.799 --> 24:57.280
[SPEAKER_00]: Ooh, eight had positive war.

24:57.420 --> 24:59.020
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, still, that's a pretty low bar.

24:59.160 --> 25:00.341
[SPEAKER_00]: That's where you take the top of the draft.

25:01.221 --> 25:03.001
[SPEAKER_00]: But when you look at like five more,

25:05.689 --> 25:19.815
[SPEAKER_00]: five-war career, 10-war career, they actually have the highest success rate of 10 plus war careers of any draft demographic, like high school, country, college, country, high school, first place in college or they said, all that, we did group outfielders together.

25:19.835 --> 25:19.955
[SPEAKER_00]: Right.

25:20.535 --> 25:24.157
[SPEAKER_00]: Pitch, right handers, high school, right handers, college, right handers, like all those demographics.

25:24.557 --> 25:27.198
[SPEAKER_00]: The only one that was higher was high school shortstop.

25:27.639 --> 25:27.919
[SPEAKER_00]: That's it.

25:28.799 --> 25:37.407
[SPEAKER_00]: So from that standpoint, like if you wanted to also like make a, I'm trying to look at what the data shows me.

25:37.747 --> 25:37.947
[SPEAKER_00]: Right.

25:38.648 --> 25:46.035
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say that that also lays out the case because it's like if you look it's easy to remember that Collins Henry Davis Kevin Prada.

25:46.395 --> 25:51.499
[SPEAKER_00]: Those are, I would say like, and I'm working in some guys who are more recent obviously brought more recent that.

25:52.422 --> 25:58.864
[SPEAKER_00]: But then you mentioned Bailey, you've got Austin Wells, you got Adley Rushman, you got Shay Langley or you got Will Smith, you got Taylor Ward, you got Kyle Schwabber.

25:59.124 --> 26:06.367
[SPEAKER_00]: Like one thing about this is that even with the catchers like who you're like is Kyle Schwabber gonna be a big lead catcher at the end of the day it was like who cares?

26:06.767 --> 26:13.850
[SPEAKER_00]: That was a legitimate, that's not a, they called him a catcher, like he went out as a catcher, he caught in the big leagues and then they were.

26:14.190 --> 26:17.151
[SPEAKER_00]: Taylor Ward went out as a catcher and then became an outfielder.

26:17.591 --> 26:19.812
[SPEAKER_00]: But there's a lot of those guys where you're like,

26:20.232 --> 26:25.377
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, she, like, a lears, took a little one to figure it out, but that guy can mash, there's just a lot here.

26:25.617 --> 26:26.958
[SPEAKER_00]: So, yep.

26:26.978 --> 26:31.563
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll let you sum it up, but like, yeah, I'll say that is a great.

26:31.843 --> 26:32.343
[SPEAKER_01]: It's better.

26:32.423 --> 26:36.087
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a better hit rate than I would have expected for that demographic and I'll say just to maybe.

26:36.367 --> 26:42.829
[SPEAKER_01]: underline what a Von Lackey's most exciting qualities is he, he's an outlier athlete for the position on top of the defense.

26:43.309 --> 26:50.632
[SPEAKER_01]: So if the hit, if the hit power combination is just as good or better than we're expecting, he also has paths to real value playing other positions.

26:51.392 --> 26:54.073
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he could be a legitimate outfielder and be a pretty good one.

26:54.413 --> 26:56.154
[SPEAKER_01]: There are some Scott's who think he could play third base.

26:56.194 --> 27:00.035
[SPEAKER_01]: So there are just a lot of paths to value with Von Lackey that could make him a really

27:04.175 --> 27:06.116
[SPEAKER_00]: So that is the case for Vaughn Lacky.

27:06.896 --> 27:11.617
[SPEAKER_00]: After one more break, we'll be back to talk about great Emerson and why he would make sense at one one.

27:15.518 --> 27:21.580
[SPEAKER_00]: So Carlos, kicking it back to you to lay out the case for high school shortstop, great Emerson.

27:22.380 --> 27:30.787
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, well, I've been talking to some smart people recently, and they say the high school short-sought demographic in the first round of the bonus Polara is the most successful demographic there is.

27:30.867 --> 27:36.231
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's a good starting point, but I do think the case for Grady Emerson.

27:37.492 --> 27:39.032
[SPEAKER_01]: lies on his hitting ability.

27:39.732 --> 27:46.574
[SPEAKER_01]: If you believe that the hit tool is the most impressive tool you can have, gradient or since you'll be the first to overall pick.

27:47.294 --> 27:49.314
[SPEAKER_01]: He is the best peer hitter in this class.

27:49.834 --> 27:53.755
[SPEAKER_01]: He is leagues ahead of where Von Lacky was at the same stage in his career.

27:53.795 --> 27:54.835
[SPEAKER_01]: He is in a different tier.

27:55.895 --> 27:58.676
[SPEAKER_01]: At the same stage is Rochulowski at this point in his career.

27:59.176 --> 28:05.237
[SPEAKER_01]: His hitting track record is as deep and as thorough and as impressive as you can imagine,

28:05.937 --> 28:22.800
[SPEAKER_01]: for a high school hitter to have between USA baseball, three years at talented high school and Texas against good competition, one year as a senior where the competition probably did decrease a little bit with his transfer, but again, he was lights out this spring.

28:23.820 --> 28:31.902
[SPEAKER_01]: His travel ball track record, his showcase track record, everywhere, Grady Emerson has gone, he has hit, he has hit at a high level.

28:32.900 --> 28:38.045
[SPEAKER_01]: He has a pretty unimpeachable swing mechanically.

28:38.165 --> 28:50.937
[SPEAKER_01]: I would say I'm not talking to a single scout in the last two or three years that we've been covering, Brady Emerson, who basically had anything negative to say about how he does it in the box at all, I think his approach is supremely advanced

28:51.497 --> 28:59.259
[SPEAKER_01]: for his age, his ability to see the ball, to recognize pitches, to stay balanced, and his swing, to use the entire field.

29:00.139 --> 29:12.442
[SPEAKER_01]: And this sounds like a bit of a cliche, but I do think Lady Emerson is the sort of natural hitter who has developed his strength and power and is beginning to hit for more power and impact without selling out for it.

29:12.942 --> 29:13.642
[SPEAKER_01]: I do think,

29:14.551 --> 29:16.734
[SPEAKER_01]: He's shown a lot more impressive.

29:16.894 --> 29:20.218
[SPEAKER_01]: Exhibilities this spring, the home runs have jumped.

29:20.919 --> 29:30.090
[SPEAKER_01]: And so you're seeing him get to some of this natural power without the approach or the contact skills depreciating in any real way.

29:31.011 --> 29:33.054
[SPEAKER_01]: The other most obvious separator, I think,

29:34.415 --> 29:37.919
[SPEAKER_01]: Emerson compared to Rochilowski and Von Lackey is that he's a left handed hitter.

29:39.000 --> 29:45.706
[SPEAKER_01]: And when we're kind of looking for fine separators at this level, I think there's a huge advantage to being a left handed hitter.

29:45.727 --> 29:49.911
[SPEAKER_01]: You're going to get the platoon advantage much more often throughout your career.

29:50.732 --> 29:52.854
[SPEAKER_01]: It's going to help the home to first time.

29:54.778 --> 30:08.655
[SPEAKER_01]: And while I do think the argument lays squarely on on great ever since pure hitting ability, he's not just a bat, either he's a very good short stop, he runs well, he has a plus arm, he's extremely well rounded.

30:08.695 --> 30:12.420
[SPEAKER_01]: There's not a single tool I can point to and say, hey, you're bad at this area.

30:12.480 --> 30:14.162
[SPEAKER_01]: This is an area where you need to improve.

30:14.862 --> 30:23.509
[SPEAKER_01]: I think maybe the biggest question is just how much power is he going to hit for with wood at the next level and therefore what is the ultimate upside with him?

30:25.591 --> 30:26.432
[SPEAKER_01]: That's kind of the case.

30:26.632 --> 30:29.614
[SPEAKER_01]: Like as I'm talking through it, it's a fairly compelling case.

30:29.634 --> 30:36.180
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you're someone who's a fan of Grady Emerson or you just like this demographic, that's the case that I would make.

30:37.202 --> 30:38.082
[SPEAKER_00]: So, let me lay this up.

30:38.322 --> 30:48.404
[SPEAKER_00]: Here is, we're not going to get a last year's Eli Willet's or anything like that's Tucson, but here is every high school shortstop taken since 2012 in the top 10 picks.

30:48.905 --> 30:49.605
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll just go in order.

30:49.825 --> 30:58.587
[SPEAKER_00]: Connor Griffin, Jackson Holiday, Tom Arjonson, or Selomire, Jordan Lawler, Bobby Witt, Jr., CJ Abrams, Royce Lewis, Brendan Rogers, Nick Gordon, Carlos Grail.

30:59.567 --> 30:59.767
[SPEAKER_00]: Now,

31:01.535 --> 31:02.235
[SPEAKER_00]: I will say group.

31:02.656 --> 31:09.719
[SPEAKER_00]: I left out Cordillo's Randolph who was a short stop in high school, but the Phillies announced him saying he will never play shortstop.

31:09.959 --> 31:11.860
[SPEAKER_00]: They announced him as an outfielder on day one.

31:12.100 --> 31:17.943
[SPEAKER_01]: We should we should really criticize teams who do it like that because they're messing up the historical searches.

31:17.963 --> 31:18.103
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes.

31:19.382 --> 31:23.605
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, so, but he never played a game of shortstopping pro-bliceball.

31:23.625 --> 31:24.245
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not counting him.

31:24.505 --> 31:26.066
[SPEAKER_00]: Yep, from our Johnson, I'll count.

31:26.467 --> 31:30.749
[SPEAKER_00]: He was a middle-infielder who played a little bit of short and second, even though everyone knew it was going to be a second.

31:30.769 --> 31:32.210
[SPEAKER_01]: A little more Nick Madrigaley there, yep.

31:33.231 --> 31:35.032
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, all of that group.

31:35.052 --> 31:37.954
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say that, I would say that,

31:40.388 --> 31:49.137
[SPEAKER_00]: There is, okay, if we're hearing it out, Nick Gordon had a big lead career, but I've no real significance, okay, it was up for a while.

31:49.578 --> 31:55.845
[SPEAKER_00]: But if you took him top 10, you probably do look back on and go, okay, we probably could have gone a different direction better.

32:00.291 --> 32:13.014
[SPEAKER_00]: Grady Emerson, no one doubting his hitting tool, I will say he's the last one that was like that was from our Johnson who a sexual piece of my like, what could go wrong argument was going to revolve around our

32:14.011 --> 32:18.253
[SPEAKER_01]: our understanding of and the industry's perception of Germán Johnson's head to all.

32:18.293 --> 32:20.674
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we can get to that, but yeah, keep going through your year.

32:21.014 --> 32:27.818
[SPEAKER_00]: So he right now is again, if you look at ways to interpolate right now, it's got a rule five decision at the end of the year, I think that's going to be a difficult decision.

32:28.078 --> 32:37.122
[SPEAKER_00]: And as I always like to say, if you get to your, do we protect our top 10 pick in the draft in the rule five draft and you're like, I'll let's see which way we go.

32:37.702 --> 32:38.843
[SPEAKER_00]: That did work out well.

32:38.863 --> 32:39.183
[SPEAKER_00]: Right.

32:40.604 --> 32:41.664
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's that tier, right?

32:41.704 --> 32:42.785
[SPEAKER_00]: So let's say that's two.

32:46.187 --> 32:57.714
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say Jordan Lawler can't stay healthy for a minute and a half, jury's still out, like he's been in a leap prospect at times in his career, that was graduated, but he's still not a established big leaguer.

32:58.054 --> 33:00.496
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's give that, that's three, right, I'll be 11.

33:01.977 --> 33:09.502
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, beyond that, I would say Marcelo Meyer and Jackson holiday fit into the, let's see what they do, however,

33:10.615 --> 33:15.817
[SPEAKER_00]: If you had to do over again, you probably very much look at doing it over again.

33:16.377 --> 33:19.618
[SPEAKER_00]: So there I would say like, but they're very young and still in their careers.

33:20.198 --> 33:32.423
[SPEAKER_00]: I think you could even say Royce Lewis, like spit outs and downs, but again, you look at that draft, you would do it again because you'd probably take 100 green, but you'd definitely take them over bread and McKay, you'd take them over Kyle right, you'd take over a lot of the guys in that class.

33:33.410 --> 33:35.751
[SPEAKER_00]: Then you have, though, this is the point I wanted to make.

33:35.791 --> 33:36.851
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm sorry, it's being long with you.

33:37.631 --> 33:43.233
[SPEAKER_00]: But, again, you could throw Brendan Rogers in the productive big league or for a quite a while, but not a star.

33:43.993 --> 33:52.215
[SPEAKER_00]: But if you said, hey, can I give you Bobby Witt Jr. Connor Griffin, Carlos Corea C.J.

33:52.355 --> 33:52.815
[SPEAKER_00]: Abrams?

33:53.295 --> 33:54.195
[SPEAKER_00]: That category.

33:55.096 --> 33:55.676
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, that's

33:56.782 --> 34:00.967
[SPEAKER_00]: in the cases of Griffin and Witt, that could be like you turned your franchise around.

34:01.567 --> 34:05.091
[SPEAKER_00]: And in the cases of these other guys, like Carlos Correa,

34:06.185 --> 34:09.686
[SPEAKER_00]: You can say now, like, gold glove shortstop, you know, it is prime and all that.

34:09.786 --> 34:18.008
[SPEAKER_00]: But Carlos Correa had as much, if not more concerns about his defense in 2012, then Grayney Emerson does now.

34:18.048 --> 34:22.229
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, both of them, Carlos Correa was thought to be he was going to be a very good third base who just so big.

34:23.249 --> 34:32.011
[SPEAKER_01]: I think this group of players that you mentioned actually leaves really nicely into, like, what are the concerns with Grayney Emerson?

34:34.772 --> 34:45.248
[SPEAKER_01]: One of the things that stood out to me about the group of success stories you laid out there is all of those players have more dynamic athleticism in secondary tools than Grady Emerson has.

34:46.418 --> 34:52.139
[SPEAKER_01]: I would say, Grady Emerson is a much more well-rounded player than Turmar Johnson at the same stage.

34:52.159 --> 34:54.720
[SPEAKER_01]: He is a different tier of short-south defender.

34:54.780 --> 34:55.960
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a different tier of runner.

34:56.080 --> 34:59.041
[SPEAKER_01]: He has a more prototypical and predictable frame.

35:00.061 --> 35:06.083
[SPEAKER_01]: But I do think a lot of the value with Grady Emerson comes on nailing the hit tool evaluation.

35:06.283 --> 35:12.544
[SPEAKER_01]: If you don't nail the hit tool evaluation with Grady Emerson, if he is not the plus or plus plus hitter,

35:15.325 --> 35:27.754
[SPEAKER_01]: you're losing a significant amount of value, because while I do think he could still be a really solid player in that value in a lot of areas, he does not have the defensive upside, currently that the Von Lackey and Rock Chalowski have.

35:28.354 --> 35:29.375
[SPEAKER_01]: He does not have the current

35:34.018 --> 35:38.541
[SPEAKER_01]: Speaking out of both sizes of my mouth, you could say, okay, he's a much younger, we can project and dream on more to come.

35:39.021 --> 35:44.165
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, you can do that, but there's also just a lot more risk that comes with doing that, a lot more uncertainty.

35:45.426 --> 35:56.172
[SPEAKER_01]: And we've talked about this a lot throughout the draft cycle, but in some ways, it really does feel like Lady Emerson is kind of an inversion of your typical

35:57.073 --> 36:05.559
[SPEAKER_01]: profile comparison, he feels like a higher floor safer sort of player because of the hit tool, and maybe less, less upside.

36:05.739 --> 36:08.781
[SPEAKER_01]: Because his secondary tool set is very good.

36:08.901 --> 36:16.867
[SPEAKER_01]: Every time I talk about Brady Emerson, I worry about underselling his secondary tool because we don't have him great it out as even fringe average at a single tool.

36:17.167 --> 36:18.528
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a very well-rounded player.

36:19.629 --> 36:25.137
[SPEAKER_01]: but it isn't the sort of power speed size combination that Connor Griffin had.

36:25.638 --> 36:30.846
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not the defensive brilliance in instincts and power that Bobby would tune your head.

36:31.226 --> 36:32.107
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a different player.

36:32.428 --> 36:34.591
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he is more along the lines of a

36:36.139 --> 36:40.643
[SPEAKER_01]: and Eli Willets from a year ago, a Kevin McGonagall and JJ weather halt now.

36:40.763 --> 36:52.233
[SPEAKER_01]: I think those are two examples of the sort of value you could get very polished at the plate, great plate discipline, maybe more doubles power than homers, but because he's one of the games elite hitters.

36:52.793 --> 36:54.854
[SPEAKER_01]: He's an extremely productive offensive player.

36:55.014 --> 36:59.315
[SPEAKER_01]: Kevin McGonagall has been better at shortstop than I think a lot of scouts expected him to be.

36:59.495 --> 37:01.456
[SPEAKER_01]: Probably solid average or above average right now.

37:01.916 --> 37:06.578
[SPEAKER_01]: I think Greatie Emerson could be that and then if it's the JJ weather halt path, remove off the position.

37:06.718 --> 37:10.519
[SPEAKER_01]: I think Greatie Emerson could be a plus or better defender at either second or third.

37:11.700 --> 37:17.222
[SPEAKER_01]: But those players have lived up to their pre-drive hitting expectations and I think that's a lot of the reason why they have value.

37:18.682 --> 37:20.403
[SPEAKER_00]: When you were saying that, it made me think of this.

37:21.580 --> 37:26.861
[SPEAKER_00]: If you look at the top of the draft and you say, where does it go wrong the most for position players?

37:27.322 --> 37:31.423
[SPEAKER_00]: It's the hit to him because it is the most difficult.

37:32.343 --> 37:36.944
[SPEAKER_00]: We talked about difficulty of value and catcher defense, but it's always been true that a valuing the hitter is the toughest part.

37:37.484 --> 37:41.565
[SPEAKER_00]: And what you're saying here is, again, this is not the case against great Emerson, but it really is true.

37:42.225 --> 37:45.686
[SPEAKER_00]: You are taking on, if you say, I'm taking great Emerson woman.

37:46.206 --> 37:48.267
[SPEAKER_00]: If you say I'm taking Von Lackey one-one,

37:49.590 --> 38:00.637
[SPEAKER_00]: We just kind of laid out, I really can't imagine a scenario where you look back on this five years and now barring catastrophic injury or something where you're like, well, we got nothing out of that.

38:00.658 --> 38:01.738
[SPEAKER_00]: You can't do that very often.

38:01.758 --> 38:03.019
[SPEAKER_00]: You can't go one, one and get nothing.

38:03.259 --> 38:04.220
[SPEAKER_00]: You're going to get something out of it.

38:04.280 --> 38:14.507
[SPEAKER_00]: But for actualowski, you're going to get something out of that because again, if in both cases, you miss on your evaluation of them as a hitter, the defense is going to take you so far.

38:15.642 --> 38:21.509
[SPEAKER_00]: But when you talk about Brady Emerson, even if, again, not that he's going to be the rock bottom evaluation as defense.

38:21.949 --> 38:22.090
[SPEAKER_00]: But

38:23.289 --> 38:24.290
[SPEAKER_00]: like you just laid out.

38:24.990 --> 38:27.872
[SPEAKER_00]: If he's not an impactful defender and that's probably not his game.

38:28.912 --> 38:31.994
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's not his game compared to Jacob Lumbart in the same class, right?

38:32.694 --> 38:43.060
[SPEAKER_00]: If you get Jacob Lumbart's hit tool wrong, you're like, okay, you're a lesser version of what we've seen with his older brother, where it's like, but the defense and the instincts and all that's gonna carry you to the big leagues.

38:43.840 --> 38:51.265
[SPEAKER_00]: If you get it wrong here with the hit tool, it's much more of like we said that kind of example of the player who you look back on and go,

38:52.716 --> 38:57.482
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, Spencer Torkelson's a very weird guy to compare to Grady Emerson, yeah.

38:57.943 --> 39:02.328
[SPEAKER_00]: But we were all wrong on Spencer Torkel.

39:02.368 --> 39:03.710
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a weird year and all that.

39:03.770 --> 39:04.791
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, we had COVID on it.

39:05.862 --> 39:09.224
[SPEAKER_00]: The industry, and I say, but we like, I'll say me, me, I was wrong.

39:09.504 --> 39:12.326
[SPEAKER_00]: He is not as good a hitter as I thought he was.

39:13.206 --> 39:16.929
[SPEAKER_00]: The track record he had in college is about as good as you could have.

39:18.129 --> 39:22.872
[SPEAKER_00]: And it ends up not that this has made him a zero, but he strikes out more than you expected.

39:23.312 --> 39:24.333
[SPEAKER_00]: The impact's not as much.

39:25.521 --> 39:33.685
[SPEAKER_00]: Those kind of misses are just much easier to do then you took this catcher who you think is a stud defender.

39:33.725 --> 39:40.108
[SPEAKER_00]: Patrick Bailey has fallen short of the hitting projections that he had and his hitting projections weren't very good.

39:40.509 --> 39:44.471
[SPEAKER_00]: He didn't have as a 20 hit tool and he's a 20 hit tool.

39:45.551 --> 39:47.712
[SPEAKER_00]: But it's okay because of everything else.

39:47.792 --> 39:50.734
[SPEAKER_00]: That would be I think for Grady Emerson is

39:51.937 --> 39:58.901
[SPEAKER_00]: You better be a team that you feel confident about your ability to evaluate hit tools and you better be rock solid on it.

39:58.981 --> 40:00.622
[SPEAKER_00]: Then you can have the case for event number one.

40:01.102 --> 40:03.703
[SPEAKER_00]: If you're even like, I don't know.

40:03.723 --> 40:05.264
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not sure.

40:06.024 --> 40:10.407
[SPEAKER_01]: Or if you think the gap between the hit tool is just not the degree that we've laid out here.

40:10.567 --> 40:14.509
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think you would have to go towards another option that has just more elsewhere.

40:15.403 --> 40:21.686
[SPEAKER_00]: But even then, like I said, it's hard to believe Ray Emerson's not going to be a useful big leader just because like Brennan has to think is a good example.

40:21.706 --> 40:26.168
[SPEAKER_00]: This Brennan Rogers fell far short of the expectation that he was considered.

40:26.408 --> 40:27.628
[SPEAKER_00]: We talked about that dance to be class.

40:27.668 --> 40:28.329
[SPEAKER_00]: It was like those.

40:28.349 --> 40:29.569
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he was right in there in that three.

40:29.589 --> 40:31.090
[SPEAKER_01]: It was the big three more than the big two.

40:31.310 --> 40:31.490
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

40:31.690 --> 40:34.411
[SPEAKER_00]: But pretty wrong, there's a productive bigger for a long time.

40:34.812 --> 40:37.353
[SPEAKER_01]: That's kind of my take away from this conversation, Jesus.

40:37.373 --> 40:40.594
[SPEAKER_01]: I really feel like the top three of this just class is just, it's really good.

40:41.015 --> 40:47.518
[SPEAKER_01]: It's easy to see paths to value and in myriad of ways for all these players I would feel comfortable with all of them.

40:47.778 --> 40:56.462
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm curious if you find yourself leaning towards one player more than another at this stage, or maybe more skeptical of one player.

40:58.363 --> 41:00.346
[SPEAKER_01]: I would still go chalk on our board.

41:00.547 --> 41:02.249
[SPEAKER_01]: I would go rock than greater than Vaughan.

41:02.710 --> 41:07.677
[SPEAKER_01]: I do think I'm personally a little bit more concerned with the hit power profile of Vaughan Lacky.

41:07.718 --> 41:13.226
[SPEAKER_01]: I think for whatever reason there've been some like Georgia College players, both the University of Georgia and Georgia Tech, where

41:14.010 --> 41:17.432
[SPEAKER_01]: there seems to be a lot of noise in the production at that park and just college-hating in general.

41:17.812 --> 41:19.353
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm just really comfortable with you.

41:19.933 --> 41:24.116
[SPEAKER_00]: Charlie Condon's inability to be an impact big league or so far.

41:24.136 --> 41:27.157
[SPEAKER_01]: As well as the Georgia Tech catcher track record of recent years.

41:27.398 --> 41:27.998
[SPEAKER_00]: Joey Bart.

41:28.378 --> 41:28.578
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

41:28.598 --> 41:29.399
[SPEAKER_00]: Kevin Perrada.

41:30.459 --> 41:31.060
[SPEAKER_00]: Mike Nickyus.

41:31.240 --> 41:33.001
[SPEAKER_00]: You can throw Mike Nickyus into that if you want.

41:33.081 --> 41:35.322
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, like, they are catcher you, but they haven't had.

41:35.662 --> 41:38.224
[SPEAKER_00]: You have to go back to Matt Weeders for the guy who's the slam dunk.

41:38.264 --> 41:40.745
[SPEAKER_00]: And even that Weeders, I know a lot of people like, oh, he's just going, no.

41:40.965 --> 41:43.006
[SPEAKER_00]: Matt Weeders was really good till he kind of broke down.

41:44.793 --> 41:46.974
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, and Jason Bear Tech, by the way, we're really good.

41:47.434 --> 41:50.956
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's not like what you mean, no one's produced a catcher.

41:51.396 --> 42:08.104
[SPEAKER_00]: But I do think that there is, it's not crazy to say though that, again, I know areas scouts turn over, but there's a lot of areas scouts who saw Charlie Condon, who by the way, had a season better than what Daniel Jackson's doing and better than what Bob Lacky's doing and better than what Drew Burris is doing.

42:08.364 --> 42:09.085
[SPEAKER_00]: His season,

42:09.885 --> 42:16.126
[SPEAKER_00]: his college player the year season is one of those seasons that you stare at it and you're like, this happened.

42:16.486 --> 42:18.887
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like batting average power, everything.

42:19.647 --> 42:25.008
[SPEAKER_00]: I get it where it's like there could be some hangover from that of like I've seen this before.

42:25.888 --> 42:33.890
[SPEAKER_00]: But to answer your question, it actually probably leaves me a little bit more to the idea that it's not crazy that the

42:38.770 --> 42:39.731
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to talk to all three.

42:39.811 --> 42:43.334
[SPEAKER_00]: And I don't mean from a standpoint of, we're just seeing who will take a haircut.

42:43.354 --> 42:44.275
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's who we're going to take.

42:44.815 --> 42:56.065
[SPEAKER_00]: But at the same time, if you said player A wants 100% of bonus, just theoretically, player B wants 95% and player C wants 75%.

42:57.506 --> 43:01.709
[SPEAKER_00]: OK, if you think player C's as good as player A, at least you think about it, right?

43:01.749 --> 43:05.372
[SPEAKER_00]: Like because I do think, if you asked me right now,

43:06.401 --> 43:12.885
[SPEAKER_00]: to line it up, I think between Lacky and Shalasky, that we didn't even get into, it's more in the story at baseballamerican.com.

43:14.166 --> 43:19.189
[SPEAKER_00]: Take away the strip away the traditional statistics for these guys, the home road spots and all that.

43:19.849 --> 43:27.754
[SPEAKER_00]: Just look at the underlying contact rates, swing decisions, power, you know, EVs, all these things, right?

43:28.815 --> 43:29.956
[SPEAKER_00]: It is remarkable,

43:31.278 --> 43:36.180
[SPEAKER_00]: If I took those two players and put them side by side and said, which of these two is better?

43:37.321 --> 43:42.963
[SPEAKER_00]: I could make the case for either one of them, but really I would say like, is this one season, season one and season two from the same player?

43:43.183 --> 43:44.564
[SPEAKER_00]: Because they're that similar.

43:44.644 --> 43:46.365
[SPEAKER_00]: They have similar contact rates.

43:46.405 --> 43:47.846
[SPEAKER_00]: They have similar EVs.

43:47.906 --> 43:51.407
[SPEAKER_00]: They have similar, you know, like swing decision rates.

43:51.447 --> 43:53.828
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, Lackie's a little bit more patient than rock.

43:54.168 --> 43:54.989
[SPEAKER_00]: I think rock kind of,

43:56.135 --> 44:02.851
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say that there was a context to that, which is, is that Vaughn Lacky was in a line up where he knew like, if I take a walk.

44:04.110 --> 44:14.540
[SPEAKER_00]: There's six guys behind me, all of whom could hit a Homer, and Rock was in a lineup where it's like, you see a lineup wasn't, wasn't slouches for, I would say like three quarters of the season.

44:15.061 --> 44:19.485
[SPEAKER_00]: It wasn't slouches, but at the same time, you do see like that, I've watching his at best.

44:19.505 --> 44:24.009
[SPEAKER_00]: You could see time for, he would take his at best, he would take his walks, he would take his hip by pitches, he got hit a lot.

44:24.470 --> 44:28.073
[SPEAKER_00]: But he also at times we would see like, especially in the regional, I felt like,

44:28.834 --> 44:31.637
[SPEAKER_00]: I've got to do it here and sometimes it got a little bigger because of that.

44:31.957 --> 44:35.460
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that that's something lacking never felt the need to do because of that lineup.

44:35.920 --> 44:37.362
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a fun, fascinating debate.

44:37.382 --> 44:43.067
[SPEAKER_00]: We will continue to have it all the way up to gravity, which is not that far away.

44:43.127 --> 44:45.108
[SPEAKER_00]: Still a ways away, but not that far away now.

44:45.849 --> 44:46.670
[SPEAKER_00]: Any final thoughts, Carlos?

44:47.668 --> 44:49.269
[SPEAKER_01]: No, I think it's a fun class.

44:49.309 --> 44:51.371
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll be curious if you guys feel strongly.

44:51.391 --> 44:53.552
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to do some draft chats, going ahead.

44:53.632 --> 44:54.813
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll try and make sure I do a poll.

44:55.193 --> 44:58.396
[SPEAKER_01]: I like polling to see what our readers think who they would take one one.

44:58.436 --> 44:59.637
[SPEAKER_01]: We did that last year that was fun.

44:59.657 --> 45:00.357
[SPEAKER_01]: We haven't done it yet.

45:00.417 --> 45:05.121
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you guys have any thoughts on who you would take, we'd love to hear from you as always.

45:05.181 --> 45:06.862
[SPEAKER_01]: But no, this was a fun conversation to do.

45:07.262 --> 45:07.923
[SPEAKER_00]: It's fun conversation.

45:07.943 --> 45:08.843
[SPEAKER_00]: We did limit three.

45:09.003 --> 45:14.767
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say like in the deep cut version of this, we would also talk about, say, like Jackson Flora and Eric Booth and C.

45:15.648 --> 45:27.818
[SPEAKER_00]: can I make a case for either of those guys, but it's fun discussion again, so much more of a baseball market.com, and if you have your thoughts on rock versus Vaughan versus Grady, also feel free to leave it in our YouTube comments.

45:27.858 --> 45:31.101
[SPEAKER_00]: I do try to comment on those, and you know, I try to, uh,

45:31.681 --> 45:40.426
[SPEAKER_00]: Give answers to people ask questions and sometimes even politely kind of correct when someone says things like oh, the, you know, the best coaches and the best paid coaches are all in major league baseball.

45:40.446 --> 45:44.409
[SPEAKER_00]: So no, some other in college, that's what's Johnson stuff like that.

45:44.569 --> 45:49.312
[SPEAKER_00]: So we have a lot more of that at YouTube at baseball market calm and on the podcast team for Carlos.

45:49.432 --> 45:51.073
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm JJ so long everybody.