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[SPEAKER_00]: Everybody, JJ Cooper, Jacob Bunder, Baseball, America College podcast.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We are back.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Jacob is back home.

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[SPEAKER_00]: No longer in Omaha.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Slightly more rested.

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[SPEAKER_00]: More resting, hopefully still to come.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But great to see Jacob.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And what we are talking about today is the summer season of college baseball, which to be honest,

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[SPEAKER_00]: starts well before the end of the previous season.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We were talking about this.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We were writing about this while the season was still going on, but now we are officially in the off season.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Jacob great to see you and I'll just kind of kick it over to you.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I know that there are people who fully explain it, but for those who don't and for those who need a refresher,

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[SPEAKER_00]: Explain what's going on.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So we have the portal as we're recording this on July 30th.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We have the portal.

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[SPEAKER_00]: The door.

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[SPEAKER_00]: The gate is swinging closed for most people.

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[SPEAKER_00]: You're going to put yourself on the portal.

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[SPEAKER_00]: You better do it soon.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But some exceptions, but there's also a lot of other things going on with fancy AA and eligibility.

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[SPEAKER_00]: What, you know, kind of just lay it out for everybody.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Let's start with the end of the portal.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Let's break that down because that's gonna be the most relevant calendar marker that we're gonna hit here for everybody that's listening to this.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The wave of the portal ends is more of a soft closure than it is a full closure.

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[SPEAKER_01]: There's no such thing as no transfer portal anymore in college courts.

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[SPEAKER_01]: June 30th and 1159 PM Eastern Time is done.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Or sorry, I believe it's 1159 PM local time depending on where you are.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That's where you could race.

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[SPEAKER_00]: You could race if you front somehow.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You could race to, you know, if you're close to the, a time zone change, you can race to the next time zone, it's actually it's more, if you can move your school's physical location before the time 11 59 hits that's 10 year in good shape much tougher to do for the most part that will be the closure of the portal for the vast majority of players 90% of players will be frozen out of entering the transfer portal starting tonight night being June 30th.

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[SPEAKER_01]: If you have graduated from your university, you're a grad student, and this is an academic tag, just to be clear.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You can enter the portal whenever you want.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Tomorrow, in a month from now, in two months from now, the portal is constantly open for graduate transfers.

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[SPEAKER_00]: There's a logic to that, there's a logic to that, which is this is still in some ways an academic enterprise, and as a grad student, you should be able to go somewhere else to work on your grad studies, right?

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[SPEAKER_01]: There you go.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's the last remnant, if you will, of of, of, of, you know, student to athleticism.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The transfer portal is open for a limited window for those players on those teams that lose their coach.

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[SPEAKER_01]: More often than not.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The further we get away from the season, the closer we get to fall ball, if we get into fall ball, the rate which transfers will occur due to a coaching change goes down dramatically for two reasons.

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[SPEAKER_01]: One, because for most schools, it's really hard for you to get admitted at that point in the year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And two,

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[SPEAKER_01]: So, there isn't exactly a lot of space for you if you're going to enter in the portal after a late coaching change.

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[SPEAKER_01]: There's also kind of a weird tricky balance of trying to get you into school, if you do find a roster spot, and in some cases, like in the SEC, you're just completely ineligible to play if you transfer after a certain time.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So, those are the rough closure rules.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Let's talk about what the portal is.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The portal has been open for the last month, you know, open on June 1st.

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[SPEAKER_01]: During that period, total free for all.

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[SPEAKER_01]: If you play college sports and you have eligibility left, even in some cases, if you are fighting for more eligibility and you don't yet have it, you are eligible to enter the transfer portal.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You can go wherever you please.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You can transfer as many times as you'd like.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So that's the state of affairs as far as the transfer portal goes.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You mentioned, there's more.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You mentioned that there is an eligibility change.

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[SPEAKER_01]: There is probably an eligibility change.

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[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of legal jargon that is above my pay grade

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[SPEAKER_01]: The trajectory for college sports right now is that athletes will be adopting an age-based eligibility system where for the most part, athletes will be afforded the opportunity to play five years over five seasons.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So,

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[SPEAKER_01]: You get another year of eligibility.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You could be a grad student.

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[SPEAKER_01]: There's no more such thing as a red shirt that goes out the window, and you just have five years to play five.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So those are the big changes.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Those are the big landmark things that are happening around college sports around this time of year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And yeah, we need to keep an eye on.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Continue to keep an eye on where the eligibility thing trends.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think that this last point you made, which as we should say, basically the legal ease of it is is that the NCAA has indicated their intent to adopt, but you have it has to go through the full NCAA legislative process and approvals and all that to be an officially enacted provision to the rules, but

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[SPEAKER_00]: there is every indication is that's where it's headed.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously there will probably be there are already talks of potentially there being losses from people who are from players who may lose out under that of, you know, that would be individual.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It is adopted.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We're we're past the point of adoption.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The NCAA has adopted this.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So you have five years of eligibility after your 19th birthday to play college sports.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That's done.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The question is, just to be clear, when I say that it's not finished yet, and there's legal things that are happening, there are already lawsuits that are coming into play that stand to potentially disrupt this.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Do I think that's what's going to happen?

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[SPEAKER_01]: No, that's why I said the direction of this appears to be seven.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We are going to have an age-based eligibility system that affords athletes the opportunity to play for five seasons.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But there are some big lawsuits that are coming out that are out that are hanging over this as a little bit of a cloud before it really

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[SPEAKER_01]: what's going to happen?

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[SPEAKER_00]: So, I do think so.

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[SPEAKER_00]: This is what I want to ask my next question why I ask you.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I feel like that this is in really, in reality, for right now, for this transitionary period, a seismic change from the standpoint that you had a whole lot of players who, you had players who basically kind of thought that they knew what their

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[SPEAKER_00]: college in date was like, and it's different now, and it's changed.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And that's significant.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And

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[SPEAKER_00]: So there's, it's significant on that end for like if you were a current junior who thought that you were heading into your second to last year, your draft eligible, well now you're ending heading into your third, if you hadn't registered it already or anything like that, you're ending into your three years counting this year of coming up as eligibility.

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[SPEAKER_00]: That's the different story.

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[SPEAKER_00]: That's a different story when it comes to leverage as far as the draft is the different story as far as oh,

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[SPEAKER_00]: I literally like college baseball.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not going to get drafted.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I can stick around here another two years.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But there's a flip side of that, too.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Isn't there?

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's like, if you're a college coach, you have constructed your roster based on the old rules.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And now, the paradigm has changed.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And again, not that every single player who has five years of eligibility is going to exercise all five years.

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[SPEAKER_00]: some of them will and those are players and I say that from the standpoint of those players but also for some the high school players who are planning to join their plan to come in well we already talk about how hard it is for 18 year olds competing against 21 and 22 year olds on the level playing field.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Now you're going to have a few more of those that you're basically battling for both playing time, but also roster spots on spots aren't you?

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[SPEAKER_01]: 100% and I think that the other thing that's important here is that there are a lot of coaches and scouts and agents who believe that

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[SPEAKER_01]: This draft class, the 2026 draft class is going to be impacted in a way that we may see more high school athletes sign with pro teams than we would in a normal year and there are two forces that play that they believe are influencing that one is simply what you just said.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It is going to be harder and harder for the young player to find spots on these teams because for coaches who.

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[SPEAKER_01]: at the end of the day, their job is to go win.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Like, development, and here's a can of worms that I didn't intend to open today, but development is very important to colleges.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Let's be clear.

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[SPEAKER_01]: winning is also very important to colleges is more of or lend development the and the easiest most proven way to win in today's world of college athletics this is not a college baseball comment this is this is true to everything at the moment is to be older older players play better than younger players even if their professional ceilings are dramatically different

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[SPEAKER_01]: Young player, potential superstar, is not always as effective as old player has barely any professional future in this sport.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So, I do think that there are agents who are concerned that if you put your 18 year old on one of these super powered, old, expensive, rosters.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You are sacrificing real playing time for your athlete.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So that's one thing.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The second thing is the proposal from MLB is accelerating some of the fears that agents and the families and players and college coaches have from what I've been able to gather.

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[SPEAKER_01]: There are a number of people who I've talked to who have basically said,

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[SPEAKER_01]: MLB threatening, even if it doesn't come true, MLB merely threatening high school eligibility, as far as the draft goes, may push some of these kids into signing right now because they could be of the last groups of what would be a dying breed.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Guys, we're getting into baseball at in some cases 17, a lot of cases 18, 19 years old,

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[SPEAKER_01]: they could be the last of their kind.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So I think that there are a lot of things that play right now between the changes to eligibility, how that influences roster construction at the college level, and then the opportunity to go be a very young person in professional baseball, maybe.

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[SPEAKER_01]: just being threatened to be eliminated is going to be interesting for this year's draft.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that a lot of players and families needed to decide to your point, what route is best for them and how they're going to develop best because on their part, as much as it is winning on the college side for those guys, it's all about development.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So it'll be interesting to see what they believe to be the best.

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[SPEAKER_00]: The other thing with that is that again, we'll go back to the uncertainty.

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[SPEAKER_00]: the other part of the cell when I ask you about this is so we we're already talking about we we have gone from 11.7 to the will the you can have most teams don't but you can have up to 34 full scholarships 34 scholarships now but that also came with it if we both set it the meeting where this was discussed at the ABCA a lengthy meeting a couple years ago where this also talked about that okay well that comes with it roster limits and last year was kind of a transitionary

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[SPEAKER_00]: What is where to roster limits stand now when you just literally were told, hey, everything that you thought you knew eligibility wise has been changed.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So, as of right now, the fact is that eligibility rules are staying the same.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's excuse me, roster limits are staying the same.

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[SPEAKER_01]: 34 players, you can pay for as many of those guys on scholarship as your school can afford or wants to, there are schools, Arizona State for example, is a 34 scholarship school, wake forest is way behind in scholarships.

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[SPEAKER_01]: They're battling to be around 11.7.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So, there is a wide range, what schools?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Correct, basically an Arizona State all 34 players who play college baseball and Arizona State on their roster have their their fair paid.

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[SPEAKER_01]: They don't pay to go to school at week For us the vast majority of the roster has to pay its way or at least in part pay its way To go to college.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So yes massive gap.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think that

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[SPEAKER_01]: While 34 is the rule of today, the rule of June 30th, I do not think that that will be where it sticks.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Nor do I think that that's where coaches believe it will stick.

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[SPEAKER_01]: 34 comes with a number of different challenges.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The first is just purely a practical operational standpoint.

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[SPEAKER_01]: This is something that you and I heard of the meeting that you just referenced in, what was it 2025, or sorry, it was in 2024.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The, the,

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[SPEAKER_01]: 34-man limit makes it very difficult and fall ball to have team on team's privileges.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Two full teams that will face each other and be able to play a full baseball game without mixing and matching and cutting inings and rolling inings and whatever you want to call it.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That bothered the number of coaches.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The other problem here is that with 5 to play 5, now coming into effect or almost certainly coming into effect.

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[SPEAKER_01]: As has been adopted, this has

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[SPEAKER_01]: you are inviting an extra year of player to stick around in college sports.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So in addition to having a 34-man cap, you're squeezing more players into the system with nowhere to go.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Does that force the NCAA to expand the 34-man limit according to a lot of coaches' beliefs?

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, it will.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Does the NCA always do what's best for the sport and to accommodate the amount of people that it needs to accommodate?

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[SPEAKER_01]: If you ask every single coach, no, it does not always do that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So I think that it kind of remains to be seen.

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[SPEAKER_01]: This could be an interesting thing about this as somebody who's seen a lot of good baseball.

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[SPEAKER_01]: What this could do to the division two to the lower major to the JuCo ranks because I do see a path where the NCA does not increase from 34 and these players need somewhere to go and I think that JuCo's and D2s and D3s are the immediate beneficiaries and lower majors maybe that wouldn't necessarily have access to some of these guys.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We should be clear on this.

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[SPEAKER_00]: This rule as it currently stands for this 34 that, as we're saying, maybe a day adjusted may not.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We're not talking about a rule for January 15th.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We're not talking about a rule for January 1st.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We're talking about a rule that would come in place for the fall semester at all these schools.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And so, when they, the fall of 2027,

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yes.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yes.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So like, there's not that long ahead to make adjustments.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And what I would say with all of this is yes, because again, this rule the five, you know, we're talking about like this is all like all these things are being faced in, but what I'm saying is it's just another piece of what we've had now.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I can't even come up with the power rankings of which high school recruiting class got the most screwed by all these changes because I think there's a number of them that could make compelling arguments, right?

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[SPEAKER_00]: That for all that there's been a lot of great things that have happened in college baseball in the 2020s.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Let's start there, right?

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[SPEAKER_00]: So many things that felt like that they were never getting changed or they were only changing at a very glacial pace.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I will tell you when I was, you know, I remember 11, 11, 11, 11, 7 for forever.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I never talked to a college coach.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I never talked to anyone whose dream was 34.

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[SPEAKER_00]: The dream was 20.

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[SPEAKER_00]: The dream was, can we get this moved up?

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[SPEAKER_00]: It was not, oh, you will be able to fully fund scholarships for a full roster and depth on top of that.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And that's where we are now.

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[SPEAKER_00]: On the coaches side, it was forever, it's like, hey,

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[SPEAKER_00]: We're trying to get the volunteer coach turned into a paid coach.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And I will say again, the bad thing that they did, the misleading thing they did at that time, was they always said, it's about improving the coach to student athlete ratio.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And the real problem with that being is is that anyone with two working brain cells could say,

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[SPEAKER_00]: No, it improves the coaches' ability to exist and survive.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But if you take a volunteer coach and you pay them, that has not changed the ratio of student athlete to coach, it just means that the coach is better compensated.

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[SPEAKER_00]: That said, that's been now that, you know, now, I will tell you right now, college coaching staffs, in addition to support staffs and all, or at a level that would have made a coach, I feel like 10 years ago, look at this and go, this is amazing.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But at the same time, the other part of this change is you talked about it, which is there are a lot of players when you say like, I mean, yes, some of them are going to go to JuCo and that could be great, but every scout, every coach, every JuCo coach I've talked to over the years has made the point.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Not everyone's cut out to play JuCo ball not everyone will stick with it.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, they're on.

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[SPEAKER_00]: If you see that someone went and played juicobal, you can pretty much not question that they love baseball and they want to do it because it is fine.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It is fine.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's the cement block, you know, the cinder block life.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And it is like you're doing a level of participation in getting everything ready.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And it level that you don't have to individual and baseball, like, you know, dragging fields and things like that are much more a part of your life like you are you're doing all of it.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And for some kids that could be something where it's like this is a great opportunity for others.

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[SPEAKER_00]: who have a different mindset, it very well could be something where I thought I was going to a powerful school.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Now I'm here, I'm done because I'm not willing to do this.

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[SPEAKER_00]: This is not what I signed up for.

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[SPEAKER_00]: D2, like, there's all this cascade effect, but the problem with all of this is that the grand scheme, the NCAA has spent a decade being reactive.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And again, partly because they keep losing court cases, they keep losing laws with us.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But being reactive and the trickle down effect of that is is that we haven't had, and again, I want to see what you think about this.

18:52.705 --> 19:00.732
[SPEAKER_00]: But in my view, we haven't had this kind of level of stability to find a new normal and the ones who do suffer the most are,

19:01.550 --> 19:27.385
[SPEAKER_00]: Like again, if you're a high school recruit and you're not that elite elite, like, okay, I'm debating whether I'm going to turn down, you know, six figures in a bonus or I'm going to go to, you know, on a full ride or post will full ride and good NIL, not that player, but the player who's kind of grinded their way out to get that offer at, you know, a D1 not a power for but a D1 offer and all the sudden now.

19:28.321 --> 19:33.765
[SPEAKER_00]: They're being told, and not because the coach has deliberately tried to screw them or anything like that.

19:34.245 --> 19:45.313
[SPEAKER_00]: But their coach is now that they are planning to go to his telling him, I don't know what, as it's right now, because again, the other part of this that we haven't gotten into is the portal's going on.

19:46.154 --> 19:54.700
[SPEAKER_00]: While we also have the draft still ahead, while we have this new eligibility rules being talked about and discussed and adopted,

19:56.903 --> 19:59.457
[SPEAKER_00]: So, and we don't, you know, and we have the roster rules.

20:01.098 --> 20:09.682
[SPEAKER_00]: If you're a head coach at a college program right now, you are trying to put together a puzzle that is like the puzzle pieces keep changing.

20:10.122 --> 20:12.123
[SPEAKER_00]: And so like you may think it fits together now.

20:12.203 --> 20:14.984
[SPEAKER_00]: And then because you don't know which players are going to get drafted.

20:15.004 --> 20:15.985
[SPEAKER_00]: You don't know which players are going to sign.

20:16.005 --> 20:17.205
[SPEAKER_00]: And you just talked about it also.

20:17.605 --> 20:26.529
[SPEAKER_00]: We may have more high school players going in this class, but we also may have more juniors who were sitting here three months ago

20:27.750 --> 20:31.353
[SPEAKER_00]: being told like, look, I don't care if it's not the number you want.

20:32.134 --> 20:38.500
[SPEAKER_00]: Your choices are either taking that or are you willing to take 50k next year as a senior sign?

20:38.980 --> 20:41.903
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, you're not a senior sign next year now.

20:42.583 --> 20:52.112
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, you're going to be someone who's still as another year to go back to school and also on top of that to go back to your point about older players, win you more games,

20:53.188 --> 20:59.193
[SPEAKER_00]: You're going to have players, especially that second third here of potential draft E, perspective draft E, who?

21:00.379 --> 21:24.512
[SPEAKER_00]: It behooves a lot of these college programs to try to make it well worth their while to stick around because even if you're kind of a fringe draft prospect, a lot of those guys are guys who are absolutely going to help you in a ton of college baseball games if you get them to come back because they are seasoned, they are proven and you are instead of you throwing someone in there that you don't know how they're going to respond that you don't know how well they're going to be able to handle the job.

21:24.852 --> 21:27.213
[SPEAKER_00]: You have someone you're like, nope, that's our Saturday starter.

21:27.394 --> 21:27.794
[SPEAKER_00]: We're good.

21:28.114 --> 21:29.435
[SPEAKER_00]: We're not worrying about as long as they stay

21:30.255 --> 21:34.275
[SPEAKER_00]: What do you like how much turmoil do you think is kind of going on right now as you see?

21:35.143 --> 21:47.067
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, a lot, and that's because the reality is that college coaches have always felt that this is a constantly shifting landscape, and that the really is no, you know, getting your feet under you to be able to have an understanding of what it is that you need to do.

21:47.707 --> 21:58.510
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that there are coaches out there who have as good a handle on it as you can have, though, and I think that there are some guys who have proven that they are very good at navigating this era.

21:58.530 --> 21:59.311
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll give you an example.

21:59.331 --> 22:00.391
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that West Johnson,

22:01.380 --> 22:06.563
[SPEAKER_01]: But as Johnson's rosters have rolled with the times, ever since he stepped foot in Athens.

22:06.603 --> 22:15.849
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, this past roster that went to the college world series had over 20 division one transfers on it and was one of the most, if not the most, transfer heavy rosters at the high major level in the country.

22:16.289 --> 22:17.369
[SPEAKER_01]: And they were excellent.

22:17.409 --> 22:17.690
[SPEAKER_01]: So like,

22:18.530 --> 22:24.655
[SPEAKER_01]: has he molded to the rules as they've come and gone very effectively?

22:25.075 --> 22:26.136
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I would say that he would.

22:26.176 --> 22:33.162
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that Jay Johnson and I know that people will attempt to scoff at that because of the performance that they had in 2026.

22:33.182 --> 22:34.643
[SPEAKER_01]: But Jay Johnson was one of the best coaches.

22:34.943 --> 22:36.484
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's ridiculous.

22:36.504 --> 22:40.928
[SPEAKER_01]: Like Jay Johnson is one of the best coaches in the last two decades, if not even beyond that.

22:40.988 --> 22:47.433
[SPEAKER_01]: So that is a team that has adopted the new roster rules very well in kind of world with the punches.

22:48.313 --> 23:05.467
[SPEAKER_01]: I think Tennessee, and this is an interesting one because we're going to talk about them again in a second here, but Tennessee has also done an excellent job of this and it is a credit to Tony Vitello, but if you were called last year with Alberto Azuna and it didn't even work in their favor when they had Alberto Azuna with, you know, the Diego Pavia.

23:06.107 --> 23:10.109
[SPEAKER_01]: JuCo rules, whether or not he was going to be able to play, which ultimately never happened.

23:10.450 --> 23:14.772
[SPEAKER_01]: But to me, that was a great sign of a coach having his feet under him.

23:14.812 --> 23:19.354
[SPEAKER_01]: And understanding some of the loopholes in the ways that you could build a roster and be competitive.

23:19.374 --> 23:24.977
[SPEAKER_01]: And I know that a lot of fans look at that and they were like, oh, you know, here goes Tony again, or here goes Tennessee trying to do some in crazy.

23:25.297 --> 23:25.978
[SPEAKER_01]: Why wouldn't you?

23:26.338 --> 23:27.839
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, the rules are the rules.

23:27.879 --> 23:28.379
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that

23:29.760 --> 23:37.628
[SPEAKER_01]: for what you know your your point being that there are a lot of coaches who may feel like they're kind of scrambling or trying to get their feet under them for every one of those that exist.

23:38.029 --> 23:47.138
[SPEAKER_01]: I think there's another coach that kind of lives for the chaos a little bit and has figured out a way to thrive in the fire if you will and they've found ways to be good.

23:47.198 --> 23:52.243
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, the NCAA needs a lot more clarity on everything and it's been that way for

23:53.298 --> 24:00.213
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, the last decade, if not even well beyond that, the NTA has been a poor partner when it comes to

24:01.652 --> 24:03.593
[SPEAKER_01]: best positioning coaches to succeed.

24:03.654 --> 24:15.783
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that there are other organizations, the ABCA being chief among them, that have been what the NCAA should be and they are kind of the voice from the coaches and they are trying to establish some clarity.

24:15.803 --> 24:28.832
[SPEAKER_01]: Like every year I think one of the most valuable things that we do, we being baseball America, is we go out to ABCA and we just go and listen because the reality is they do have a handle on it and I think that that body of people

24:29.753 --> 24:47.226
[SPEAKER_01]: A has a lot of influence to kind of clean up some of the muck, but B, I think that they have spent a lot of time and brain resource and brain power in trying to decipher some of the the jarbleed up rules and chaos that exist in college sports and they really do a good job of laying it out for coaches.

24:47.626 --> 24:47.746
[SPEAKER_01]: So

24:48.807 --> 25:07.328
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, listen, I think that there are a lot of examples of teams that are doing as best as they can as they continue to try and navigate this and I know because I've either seen them or talk to them about it that there are coaches to have a very extensive roster models that reflect.

25:08.763 --> 25:34.341
[SPEAKER_01]: past things, future potential changes, new eligibility rules, current transfer rules, future potential transfer rules, and they're baking in all of the possibilities into what they do because I do think that that's kind of the only way to be successful nowadays is that you are baking in all of the possible factors that the NCAA could throw at you because they do change what feels like and in some cases is every week.

25:35.561 --> 25:37.703
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, so we've talked about the landscape.

25:38.223 --> 25:40.105
[SPEAKER_00]: Now we're going to talk into kind of what it means.

25:40.145 --> 25:41.366
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll do that right after this quick break.

25:44.850 --> 25:49.033
[SPEAKER_00]: So Jacob, now let's talk about the nitty-gritty of what this means.

25:49.094 --> 25:52.757
[SPEAKER_00]: You just said, like you said, we're going to have a couple of teams, like Tennessee's one we're going to talk about.

25:53.277 --> 25:55.820
[SPEAKER_00]: Which schools portal moves stand out to you?

25:55.840 --> 26:01.525
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll start with kind of the ones who are really have done a good job of kind of bringing in talent in your mind.

26:03.233 --> 26:07.959
[SPEAKER_01]: But let's start with Tennessee, just because I think Tennessee has done an outstanding job.

26:08.660 --> 26:18.172
[SPEAKER_01]: I will also call back to a conversation that Peter Flaherty shot out Peter, and I had on the podcast last year, when Tennessee hired Chuck to roll them in a way from Florida.

26:18.773 --> 26:21.617
[SPEAKER_01]: That was a massively consequential move.

26:22.317 --> 26:32.309
[SPEAKER_01]: Because, and this has become Drawland's reputation in the industry, he is one of the premier talent identifiers and collectors in the country.

26:32.349 --> 26:33.630
[SPEAKER_01]: He's an expert recruiter.

26:34.051 --> 26:37.815
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that part of recruiting in today's day and age is also how good you are.

26:38.275 --> 26:44.842
[SPEAKER_01]: at going to whether it's not saying drama but has done either of these options, but I think that it's just important to mention to people.

26:45.502 --> 26:51.908
[SPEAKER_01]: A good recruiter nowadays is also somebody who campaigns well for resources and make sure that their roster is in a position that

26:52.832 --> 27:01.175
[SPEAKER_01]: can be improved, whether that's a conversation that an assistant, a recruiting coordinator, is having with administration people, with boosters, with a head coach.

27:01.615 --> 27:14.059
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that regardless of what that path is, Geralaman at Florida, and again at Tennessee now, has proven to be extremely effective in the art of kind of bolstering the resources.

27:14.099 --> 27:14.960
[SPEAKER_01]: He's really good at that.

27:15.260 --> 27:17.881
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's reflected in their class, excellent group of players.

27:17.901 --> 27:20.021
[SPEAKER_01]: They have some draft eligible guys

27:21.702 --> 27:27.384
[SPEAKER_01]: If they're going to beat the draft on guys like Jake McCoy, that's one where I think probably the draft wins.

27:27.404 --> 27:29.725
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the numbers from what I've heard pretty high.

27:29.805 --> 27:40.909
[SPEAKER_01]: It's seven figures for the former South Carolina lefty, but if he gets a campus and depending on how fast he can get healthy and brace surgery, that's like a pre-mo starter addition.

27:40.949 --> 27:42.430
[SPEAKER_01]: Somebody could be the front of your rotation.

27:42.730 --> 27:44.690
[SPEAKER_01]: They got Ricky O'Hadah from UC Irvine.

27:44.710 --> 27:45.931
[SPEAKER_01]: There are questions about whether or

27:49.572 --> 27:51.473
[SPEAKER_01]: Irvine looked more like he was a reliever.

27:51.513 --> 28:13.900
[SPEAKER_01]: The draft stop kind of backed up a little bit Some of the release traits that got him towards our top 100 going into the year We're just not the same in his draft season just he get to school Maybe but then there are a number of players who they've brought into I think very highly of who are not draft eligible Cow Baptist shortstop Chris Ramirez one of the premier contact bats in the country

28:13.960 --> 28:21.802
[SPEAKER_01]: He is a monster when it comes to hitting pretty much anything, but velocity included, which is important in the SEC in the zone.

28:22.182 --> 28:26.843
[SPEAKER_01]: He is a six defender at short stop at a minimum despite being a little bit under size.

28:27.163 --> 28:29.783
[SPEAKER_01]: The arm is somewhat light, but he's a really good mover.

28:30.184 --> 28:31.404
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got great feel for the game.

28:32.104 --> 28:36.565
[SPEAKER_01]: That's like a classic lead off hitter type addition for the balls.

28:36.785 --> 28:40.966
[SPEAKER_01]: Brody chose Clare from Northwestern State, left-hander, little undersized.

28:41.386 --> 28:45.728
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe a little light on kind of depth of arsenal and he did have internal brace surgery.

28:46.028 --> 28:49.469
[SPEAKER_01]: He should be ready for all of the 20, 20, seven season if not most of it.

28:50.269 --> 28:51.229
[SPEAKER_01]: And the stuff is really good.

28:51.249 --> 28:55.491
[SPEAKER_01]: There are interested to see what the step up from the Northwestern State to the SEC looks like.

28:55.511 --> 28:56.051
[SPEAKER_01]: That is a,

28:56.911 --> 28:57.631
[SPEAKER_01]: massive jump.

28:57.771 --> 29:00.413
[SPEAKER_01]: That is a huge, huge jump for talent.

29:01.153 --> 29:10.176
[SPEAKER_01]: And then a couple other guys that I like, why annoying from Air Force was an all-American candidate for us, Braiden Kiersey from Mercer 2-Wade Player.

29:11.257 --> 29:17.279
[SPEAKER_01]: The reports from the summer have sounded like it's the real deal on the mound and he can obviously hit for some some real thump.

29:17.960 --> 29:19.880
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that they expect him to play both ways.

29:19.960 --> 29:23.482
[SPEAKER_01]: That could be my number one class in the country, or at least maybe

29:26.703 --> 29:29.347
[SPEAKER_00]: Uh, is the other team that's just, I was going to say, as well as the other one.

29:29.847 --> 29:31.449
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, LSU has to be the other one.

29:31.670 --> 29:33.232
[SPEAKER_01]: Just they're sucking up top talent.

29:33.252 --> 29:35.454
[SPEAKER_01]: They have our top two players in the portal are committed to them.

29:35.514 --> 29:36.175
[SPEAKER_01]: Bino waters.

29:36.536 --> 29:39.379
[SPEAKER_01]: The outfielder from Notre Dame and Landon Hood, the righty from Gonzaga.

29:39.820 --> 29:41.022
[SPEAKER_01]: My guy, love Landon Hood.

29:41.042 --> 29:41.682
[SPEAKER_01]: Uh,

29:42.243 --> 29:49.668
[SPEAKER_01]: And then they've got some deeper, you know, draft eligible guys who are eligible this year, Kate Curland, for example, is headed there.

29:50.469 --> 29:54.011
[SPEAKER_01]: And some guys who are next year's class, Dawson Park, short stop from Texas State.

29:54.612 --> 29:58.855
[SPEAKER_01]: Jason walks the outfielder from Tulane, who was very coveted across the country.

29:58.875 --> 30:02.938
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think Diego Velasquez from USC is another one of those big ticket type players.

30:03.857 --> 30:17.067
[SPEAKER_00]: So, okay, I'll ask the question though, to you say, like you said that for skeptics out there, well, LSU was big in the portal last year as they are, every year, like, what do you think that they're doing differently at all from last year when it didn't work out?

30:17.888 --> 30:24.974
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, well, first of all, I think that the addition of land and hood is like a real, that's a headliner type move anytime.

30:25.534 --> 30:30.138
[SPEAKER_01]: And we've actually, this has been proven over the last couple of years just with how teams have performed in the postseason.

30:30.638 --> 30:32.560
[SPEAKER_01]: Teams that bring in the heaviest hitter,

30:33.753 --> 30:38.917
[SPEAKER_01]: pitching wise in the transfer portal, tends to really boost the overall roster construction.

30:39.318 --> 30:44.302
[SPEAKER_01]: Like somebody who's gonna be able to come in and in all likelihood, be a weekend starter.

30:44.662 --> 30:45.943
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a really big deal.

30:45.963 --> 30:48.485
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that Landon Hood is probably the best at that.

30:49.332 --> 30:51.314
[SPEAKER_01]: We believe that and he's our top editor in the portal this year.

30:52.134 --> 30:55.577
[SPEAKER_01]: And they have him, Bino Waters gives them a second headline name.

30:55.937 --> 31:06.766
[SPEAKER_01]: And then beyond that, I do think that it's going to be a little different because of guys like Jason Wawkes, who is a toolsie outbuilder from Tulane.

31:07.106 --> 31:15.272
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know that they bought necessarily the like household name star power that some of the guys who they got this year in Wawkes, like Wawkes is a little bit more

31:16.533 --> 31:18.754
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just, it's more of an LSU player, right?

31:18.894 --> 31:20.214
[SPEAKER_01]: He's, he's, he's real prospect.

31:20.234 --> 31:21.155
[SPEAKER_01]: There's tools there.

31:21.535 --> 31:24.596
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not necessarily going to buy the college player necessarily.

31:24.616 --> 31:28.598
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, this is somebody who has a real future in front of him baseball wise.

31:28.898 --> 31:34.560
[SPEAKER_01]: I think in Curland, you add kind of the wildly vet type who's going to be able to go and play the infield reliably.

31:34.580 --> 31:35.900
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a second baseman all the way.

31:35.920 --> 31:41.002
[SPEAKER_01]: He's shown over years now that he's a good player.

31:41.362 --> 31:42.383
[SPEAKER_01]: Is he spectacular?

31:43.003 --> 31:44.543
[SPEAKER_01]: No, but does he present

31:46.124 --> 31:51.890
[SPEAKER_01]: unifying roster togetherness, type leadership value, yeah, I think he does.

31:51.950 --> 31:53.792
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think the people that Florida would tell you the same thing.

31:53.852 --> 32:00.438
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's a mixture of talent, of some really high upside guys, you know, waters.

32:00.478 --> 32:01.359
[SPEAKER_01]: I didn't even mention him.

32:01.739 --> 32:04.542
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a number one player in the portal for the reason, for reason he's outstanding.

32:05.943 --> 32:16.449
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just a really good class, and different from last year in that, I think the higher end guys are a little bit more reliable than some of the names that they brought in this time last year.

32:16.469 --> 32:25.973
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, I think the most important thing we need to note there is this that the hiring guys are just much higher in guys like last year, I'm looking at our portal rankings and

32:33.338 --> 32:36.641
[SPEAKER_00]: this year you're talking about the best player in the class, you know, top five.

32:36.661 --> 32:37.842
[SPEAKER_00]: You're talking about multiple players.

32:37.862 --> 32:39.024
[SPEAKER_01]: Second half player in a class.

32:39.064 --> 32:39.544
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, exactly.

32:39.684 --> 32:43.828
[SPEAKER_00]: Whereas, okay, and if you said, like, okay, well, tell us what does that mean last year?

32:43.868 --> 32:54.819
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, last year, number one was AG Garcia, Chris Copian, number two, may recognize him, Carson Tinney, number three may recognize him, trade beer, joy, Volco, Volco, Gerna Vincula, like,

32:55.399 --> 33:10.206
[SPEAKER_00]: If you look at the top 10, we'll guess, Henry Ford, we'll guess, Burino, Garrett Wright, like the guys who were the top players in the portal last year are almost without fail players who made massive impacts this year.

33:10.586 --> 33:16.369
[SPEAKER_00]: So, bringing in players like that Jake Schaffner was number 12 on that list, what he meant for North Carolina.

33:16.709 --> 33:18.710
[SPEAKER_00]: you could just help shape a curious with 16.

33:19.010 --> 33:21.850
[SPEAKER_00]: Look at what he meant, you know, and he's got a ring now.

33:21.910 --> 33:26.231
[SPEAKER_00]: Like there's a whole lot of players who it really did make a difference.

33:26.251 --> 33:32.053
[SPEAKER_00]: It made an impact, but it also does trail off as you get further down the list.

33:32.453 --> 33:37.174
[SPEAKER_00]: The higher impacts are generally from the players who are much more at the top of that list.

33:37.594 --> 33:38.635
[SPEAKER_00]: That's what you're talking about.

33:38.655 --> 33:38.795
[SPEAKER_01]: That

33:40.575 --> 33:44.817
[SPEAKER_01]: Let you set LSU's top ring player on our reporter rankings was Trent Careway at 30.

33:45.437 --> 33:51.860
[SPEAKER_01]: LSU has four players at this moment in the fold that check in above number 30 right now.

33:52.001 --> 33:59.164
[SPEAKER_01]: Like I said, that includes number 1 Bino Waters, number 2 Land and Hood, number 26 Diego Velasquez, and number 28 Dawson Park.

33:59.544 --> 34:08.854
[SPEAKER_01]: So this is a really high-end class and as I'm sure this will not come as a surprise to people who've paid any attention to college baseball over the last decade.

34:09.575 --> 34:14.359
[SPEAKER_01]: When Jake Johnson is unhappy with the result that he gets,

34:14.980 --> 34:21.085
[SPEAKER_01]: J. Johnson is going to go to the end of the earth to course correct and make sure that his rosters in a better spot.

34:21.205 --> 34:29.792
[SPEAKER_01]: So we have seen kind of the crazy J. Johnson come back a little bit this offseason and get his roster to a point where he feels like it's going to go win.

34:30.673 --> 34:36.998
[SPEAKER_01]: That is a scary dude to go compete with when he's feeling this way and this is this roster kind of reflects that attitude I think.

34:37.018 --> 34:38.599
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay.

34:38.919 --> 34:40.561
[SPEAKER_00]: So now let's approach to the other way.

34:43.874 --> 34:50.521
[SPEAKER_00]: This has been rough, this is gonna take some catching up for what's happened to them.

34:51.342 --> 34:53.904
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think that the number one,

34:55.044 --> 35:01.546
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh boy, like let's look out here situation at the power four level right now is probably Wake Forest.

35:01.666 --> 35:04.386
[SPEAKER_01]: That has gotten a little bit alarming.

35:04.486 --> 35:23.511
[SPEAKER_01]: JD Stein gone, he's going to South Carolina, Andrew Costello, South Carolina, Luke Costello, South Carolina, Blake Morningstar who we expected to be the ace of staff at Wake Forest this past year, which did not work out is going to Miami, Jackson Miller from Wake Forest, going to Clemson, Jackson Roper stolen the portal, Matt Conti in the portal, like

35:25.391 --> 35:27.752
[SPEAKER_01]: Some really deep departures.

35:27.892 --> 35:30.473
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that USC is also in the same boat.

35:30.493 --> 35:34.015
[SPEAKER_01]: We have seen a lot of talent as a matter of fact I'll do you one better here.

35:34.115 --> 35:50.542
[SPEAKER_01]: I will tell you exactly how many players from USC are in the portal right now because it is a staggering number USC at the moment Has let's see This isn't real time people Southern cow

35:56.038 --> 36:17.036
[SPEAKER_01]: Here we go, USC is looking at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 players from its 20, 26 roster, which was a super regional team, let's talk about in trouble, 16 of, of,

36:18.623 --> 36:22.504
[SPEAKER_01]: major contributors for a super regional team are in the transfer portal.

36:22.564 --> 36:25.265
[SPEAKER_01]: So that is a team that has a lot of work to do.

36:26.325 --> 36:30.946
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that the resources that are available to them will be really tested.

36:31.866 --> 36:39.368
[SPEAKER_01]: Right now, I think that we learned rather than them thatically that Andy Stinkwitz has done amazing things for a program that was very much in the mud.

36:40.688 --> 36:58.838
[SPEAKER_01]: Now he's having a hard time retaining his players because that's the business of college baseball and unfortunately you get punished for having good players if you can't afford to keep them so How he's able to utilize the resources he has to put together another winning roster very quickly should be interesting because at the moment They're in a tough spot.

36:58.858 --> 37:07.463
[SPEAKER_01]: So I would say that wake for us in Southern California are the two teams where it's like You really got picked apart from from the power for level

37:09.205 --> 37:35.213
[SPEAKER_00]: that's something we're going to watch obviously we are tracking the portal is closing but as Jacob just laid out it kind of is it's a soft close never ends it never ends but we'll be doing a lot more of that in podcast and also at baseballamerica.com but we do have one more topic we're going to cover before we wrap this up which is we've also we sing as like camp fluki who we expect to hear his name called very early in the draft also in the portal we're going to talk about that right after this quick break.

37:38.188 --> 37:51.785
[SPEAKER_00]: So Jacob, why are we seeing guys like Cameron fluke or Cam Johnson guys who expect to be drafted and drafted in fluke's case in the first round still putting their names in the portal before the portal closes.

37:52.742 --> 37:53.583
[SPEAKER_01]: going to be harsh here.

37:53.783 --> 38:00.350
[SPEAKER_01]: So the agents that hear this, I have lots of respect for you, but I do have to be honest, it's part leverage play.

38:00.831 --> 38:07.778
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that there is a degree to which for some athletes, Cam Johnson is a pre-mo example here.

38:08.099 --> 38:13.825
[SPEAKER_01]: Cam Johnson did his a favor a day before recording this by entering the transfer, Cam Johnson being the left-hander from Oklahoma.

38:14.990 --> 38:18.916
[SPEAKER_01]: Johnson Stock has plummeted over the course of the last several months.

38:18.976 --> 38:20.518
[SPEAKER_01]: It started out in a pretty good spot.

38:20.979 --> 38:23.923
[SPEAKER_01]: Before we started the year, first couple starts into the season.

38:24.444 --> 38:29.531
[SPEAKER_01]: You and I were sitting here having a conversation basically owing and owing about the transformed picture.

38:29.952 --> 38:43.378
[SPEAKER_01]: that Cam Johnson was, and then from then on, it was kind of a steady, trot downhill, whether it was, you know, poor starts, the control really lapsed back to the problematic place and it was prior to this season.

38:43.418 --> 38:50.802
[SPEAKER_01]: By the end of the year, he wasn't even trusted enough to throw really in the playoffs outside of having a no-outs outing at Georgia Tech in the Atlanta Regional.

38:51.342 --> 38:53.023
[SPEAKER_01]: Draft stock, plants.

38:54.345 --> 39:02.547
[SPEAKER_01]: enters the transfer portal as a late single digit more likely double digit rounds type prospect at this point.

39:04.167 --> 39:11.929
[SPEAKER_01]: He has now positioned himself to go make more money in school next year maybe, then he would if somebody's gonna let him slide and get cheap.

39:12.570 --> 39:21.692
[SPEAKER_01]: I personally think that he will not be able to out earn in NIL what he will earn from a pro team, especially after last season, because for all the reasons that I think his stock has come down,

39:22.432 --> 39:27.756
[SPEAKER_01]: other teams will be wary of adding him and not really wanting to take on that massive developmental project at this point.

39:28.156 --> 39:30.377
[SPEAKER_01]: But nonetheless, that is leverage.

39:30.918 --> 39:41.705
[SPEAKER_01]: If you don't get drafted in a spot that you want to go or you go to a team that's not going to pay you, you now have the ability to go to a new school to a place that's going to allow you to be a starter because we know Oklahoma's rotation next year.

39:41.985 --> 39:44.247
[SPEAKER_01]: It's court rager, Nicholas Loski, and Xander

39:47.849 --> 39:54.171
[SPEAKER_00]: If it's your, if you're your Omaha rotation and they all come back, you kind of feel like that they have a I like your decision on those jobs.

39:54.611 --> 39:55.292
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

39:55.372 --> 39:56.432
[SPEAKER_01]: I really like your chances.

39:56.592 --> 40:07.196
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe, you know, somebody beat somebody in in the preseason or they bring in a transfer who does something impressive, maybe, but like JJ said, if you're going to go and pitch those three guys in Omaha,

40:08.241 --> 40:15.125
[SPEAKER_01]: Every time without breaking rotation, I have a feeling by pretty good feeling that that's gonna be the group that we see in 2027, that leaves Cam Johnson on the out.

40:15.165 --> 40:20.208
[SPEAKER_01]: And as somebody who does need to go prove it for themselves, yeah, you wanna enter the transfer portal.

40:20.848 --> 40:22.009
[SPEAKER_01]: For guys like Cam Flooky,

40:22.821 --> 40:27.006
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't even know, I actually really don't even know the motivation.

40:27.566 --> 40:38.398
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know how it, there's no leverage created here in my opinion, because if you're a team that's drafting this guy at no point in my thinking, well, shoot, we got to go and compete with first-round money against a college.

40:38.678 --> 40:41.161
[SPEAKER_01]: Colleges are not paying first-round money in NIL and baseball.

40:41.181 --> 40:42.963
[SPEAKER_01]: They aren't football, but they're not in baseball.

40:44.829 --> 40:55.714
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't see the benefit, I think that maybe there's an element in his case specifically where it's like you go on the portal and he's do not contact tag, which effectively means that teams can't reach out to him.

40:57.034 --> 41:02.417
[SPEAKER_01]: Do you do that and you go on your transport, your transport, your transfer to South Carolina.

41:03.447 --> 41:05.889
[SPEAKER_01]: because that's where Kevin Schnaul is at a respect for Kevin Schnaul.

41:06.409 --> 41:06.729
[SPEAKER_01]: Fine.

41:07.149 --> 41:13.473
[SPEAKER_01]: But is it anything more than an eye wash transfer and just kind of a quick headline over at baseball America?

41:13.753 --> 41:15.054
[SPEAKER_01]: No, I don't think it is.

41:15.114 --> 41:18.196
[SPEAKER_01]: And so I don't know if that's an agent-motivated decision.

41:18.356 --> 41:21.258
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know if that's just, again, respect for Kevin Schnaul.

41:22.039 --> 41:24.540
[SPEAKER_01]: But it's, it's, it's eye wash it.

41:24.600 --> 41:26.562
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not a real, it's a real transfer.

41:27.402 --> 41:29.783
[SPEAKER_00]: can I play devil's advocate for just a second here?

41:30.243 --> 41:31.404
[SPEAKER_00]: It is how about this?

41:31.664 --> 41:33.905
[SPEAKER_00]: It's almost assuredly I wash.

41:34.305 --> 41:40.747
[SPEAKER_00]: However, there's no harm in preparing for worst case scenarios, right?

41:41.127 --> 41:47.990
[SPEAKER_00]: Which is and again, I'm not speaking to flukey situation exactly but I'm saying in a scenario like this.

41:49.440 --> 41:57.236
[SPEAKER_00]: If you say there's a 99% chance that I'm going to sign and I'm going to get, I'm going to draft it, I'm going to sign.

41:58.540 --> 42:21.277
[SPEAKER_00]: But I would say, if that's the case, it's 99%, but there is a scenario where, you know what, if I'm still sitting here on my name's not called by the end of the second round and the money, I'm getting third round money, I'd rather go back to school, whatever it is, that you just have your 1% option or your 0.1% option, the way you want it, which is, in that case, well, I would want to be with Schnall at South Carolina.

42:21.818 --> 42:27.642
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, as you said, it doesn't really change anything, but at the same time to kind of go back to that.

42:28.848 --> 42:33.110
[SPEAKER_00]: what we just talked about some of these other things, when it comes to rosters and resource a lot and then all that.

42:33.630 --> 42:46.294
[SPEAKER_00]: I can't imagine that there's any school right now that's feeling like, okay, you know, South Carolina or anywhere, it's like, okay, we got to really move stuff around so we can make sure that we can afford fluke because as you said, he's gonna be drafted and he's gonna sign.

42:46.955 --> 42:50.036
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's just, listen, it's not,

42:51.642 --> 43:09.713
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't I think that to your point like yeah is there is there some sort of safe net that exists here, but what are the odds like if you had to put a percentage on this I'm actually asking you this if you had to put a percentage on it what percent chances there that can fluky is still on the board at pick 30 1% we don't know as many

43:10.670 --> 43:12.451
[SPEAKER_00]: We don't know, like the part that we don't know.

43:12.791 --> 43:13.752
[SPEAKER_00]: That's part we don't know.

43:13.972 --> 43:25.500
[SPEAKER_00]: Like if you just said, again, and he still went very high, but if you just said about Kuma Rocker, who was as accomplished a college pitcher as you could be?

43:26.100 --> 43:32.485
[SPEAKER_00]: in that at that time and you said, hey, he's going to be still on the board at, you know, at 10, you would have said no chance.

43:32.506 --> 43:34.227
[SPEAKER_00]: But again, it's like, oh, we didn't know the medical.

43:34.287 --> 43:45.497
[SPEAKER_00]: So I would say that the medical with this, especially for I would say this, not because I have any insight into any medical issue for Kevin, you know, for Cameron Flooky, but I'm saying he did have an issue last year that cost him time.

43:46.317 --> 43:46.417
[SPEAKER_00]: And

43:47.278 --> 44:01.507
[SPEAKER_00]: There's always that possibility, again, I've lived through the Brady Aiken where it's like, there what this medical was that is UCLA, UCLA was very small, like there's always these kind of uncertain things that can happen, but those are very small.

44:03.047 --> 44:05.449
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and again, I think that like,

44:06.878 --> 44:09.160
[SPEAKER_00]: Does the transfer portal materially do anything for him?

44:09.661 --> 44:12.044
[SPEAKER_01]: No, I don't think that he's in to get make more money in the draft.

44:12.104 --> 44:13.445
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think he's in to go in a better spot.

44:13.865 --> 44:16.608
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think that a team is going to look at that and have questions.

44:16.648 --> 44:22.935
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, is it the truest break glass scenario of all truest break glass scenarios?

44:23.095 --> 44:23.276
[SPEAKER_01]: Sure.

44:23.796 --> 44:26.059
[SPEAKER_01]: But, but it's just that, like it's not.

44:26.659 --> 44:29.342
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, I think the dark guys that you're playing with Kim Johnson's true, though.

44:29.362 --> 44:32.466
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, there is a point where you are saying, like, look, oh, for sure.

44:32.926 --> 44:42.657
[SPEAKER_00]: I cannot, if you are at a point where you're like, I don't know if I'm going to get offered 300k, or, hey, it's 150k, take it or leave it or a mill or whatever.

44:43.458 --> 44:50.162
[SPEAKER_00]: There are points where you want to have options because you don't want to be at the end of the draft go that didn't go away.

44:50.182 --> 44:51.643
[SPEAKER_00]: I wanted and where am I going to go?

44:52.343 --> 44:56.365
[SPEAKER_01]: We talked about Rikio Heda as far as Tennessee's class goes.

44:56.885 --> 45:06.691
[SPEAKER_01]: Rikio Heda was a mid major conference undersized lefty that lacks power and veto that doesn't really have a defined secondary pitch that has

45:09.072 --> 45:12.876
[SPEAKER_01]: being in a rotation even in the big west, which granted is a very good pitching league.

45:12.916 --> 45:18.402
[SPEAKER_01]: But still, if you're a top draft prospect, you've got to be able to start in the big west.

45:18.422 --> 45:24.148
[SPEAKER_01]: You're not getting max value as a leverage reliever in the big west, just not happening.

45:25.242 --> 45:31.764
[SPEAKER_01]: Does that guy go to school at a place like Tennessee because there's an opportunity to go and show that you can start?

45:31.784 --> 45:33.865
[SPEAKER_01]: And you're very young for the class.

45:33.905 --> 45:35.165
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's still 20 years old.

45:35.585 --> 45:37.486
[SPEAKER_01]: Next year, he may have a year of eligibility.

45:37.606 --> 45:40.267
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, after next year, because of the rules that are in play.

45:41.373 --> 45:47.740
[SPEAKER_01]: It seems like a really smart, like if I'm Ricky O'Hate's agent, I'm absolutely telling this guy to enter the transfer portal.

45:47.800 --> 45:50.602
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's go see what opportunities are out there.

45:50.643 --> 45:56.508
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's go see what kind of platform is out there for you to forget the money, like forget the NIL, forget all of that for a second.

45:57.229 --> 46:00.232
[SPEAKER_01]: Just purely the opportunity to go pitch in the SEC.

46:01.113 --> 46:07.339
[SPEAKER_01]: is a massive platform for somebody who has put themselves in a position where it's like, you need to go do it.

46:07.759 --> 46:10.301
[SPEAKER_01]: You need to go show teams that you can do it.

46:10.782 --> 46:15.106
[SPEAKER_01]: As a starter, you need to go show teams that you have a reliable secondary pitch.

46:15.426 --> 46:22.032
[SPEAKER_01]: There are some like release trait things that I think he needs to kind of recoup and be able to prove to teams that he still has in the take.

46:22.552 --> 46:39.984
[SPEAKER_01]: What better place to go do that than at Tennessee, where you are facing the LSU's, the Bino waters, and the Florida's with Brendan Lawson, and the Georgia's with whatever litany of power hitters they're gonna have next season, that's a great opportunity.

46:40.144 --> 46:48.250
[SPEAKER_01]: I would even go as far as to say, somebody like Jake McCoy, if I'm Jake McCoy's agent, I'm absolutely sitting down and going,

46:53.150 --> 46:54.471
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's jump into the portal.

46:54.731 --> 46:55.532
[SPEAKER_01]: You got hurt.

46:55.752 --> 47:01.957
[SPEAKER_01]: We did not have an opportunity in the regular season to show everybody and granted this was somebody like you recall at the beginning of the year.

47:02.678 --> 47:06.601
[SPEAKER_01]: Jake McCoy was the helium name in this year's draft going into the season.

47:06.621 --> 47:10.724
[SPEAKER_01]: He was the most popular player on the pre-draft riser board that we had.

47:11.929 --> 47:13.631
[SPEAKER_01]: doesn't throw a single pitch in the regular season.

47:13.772 --> 47:14.473
[SPEAKER_01]: It is draft year.

47:15.334 --> 47:18.098
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, that will come with losses when it comes to your value.

47:18.618 --> 47:20.601
[SPEAKER_01]: Do you go to a place like Tennessee?

47:20.842 --> 47:23.866
[SPEAKER_01]: We're by the way, he will be compensated at Tennessee.

47:23.906 --> 47:28.713
[SPEAKER_01]: Let me tell you, he will get paid handsomely and to go play at Tennessee.

47:30.103 --> 47:35.327
[SPEAKER_01]: Do you go do that and go show teams that you are the pitcher that they were ready to invest in?

47:36.007 --> 47:37.468
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not the craziest idea.

47:37.488 --> 47:41.731
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it depends on what you're going to get paid in the draft, but it's a great option to have.

47:43.072 --> 47:45.574
[SPEAKER_00]: The point I want to make with that is probably maybe a way to wrap it up.

47:47.973 --> 48:12.762
[SPEAKER_00]: not everyone like, I don't want to use you said, this is not something, this is not and it can see double a division one quarterbacks, where you literally, there are a number of quarterbacks who they could be drafted high and still do for the next year financially as well by going back to school because the amount that they would make is like in just actual like tangible cash is more.

48:13.623 --> 48:16.564
[SPEAKER_00]: However, that's what we're talking about here, but at the same time,

48:17.630 --> 48:32.501
[SPEAKER_00]: The balance has always been, go pro, go to college, stay in college, go sign, you know, has always been, what is that number that you're willing to give up to stay in college or to go to college or to get closer to agree, all these things?

48:33.562 --> 48:45.010
[SPEAKER_00]: That teeter totter of imbalance has gotten much closer because you do have these programs where they can legitimately, again, we're not talking, we've gone from the world of,

48:45.622 --> 48:56.077
[SPEAKER_00]: are okay college baseball you're not even on a full ride right like you're still paying out of pocket at a lot of schools ten years ago you're making this decision now we're talking about

48:56.880 --> 48:59.382
[SPEAKER_00]: no out of pocket and you're actually getting money in pocket.

48:59.742 --> 49:03.444
[SPEAKER_00]: And yes, it may not be the same as the amount that you would get in a signing bonus.

49:03.884 --> 49:08.767
[SPEAKER_00]: But in a lot of cases, it's like with the chance to raise your stock, maybe make more next year.

49:08.847 --> 49:13.310
[SPEAKER_00]: And we just talked about now, in next year, you may still have eligibility remaining after that.

49:13.350 --> 49:14.531
[SPEAKER_00]: So you still have some leverage.

49:15.331 --> 49:25.918
[SPEAKER_00]: There's going to be more of these discussions where the college, the allure of staying in college for another year is a much clearer argument now than it was 10 years ago.

49:26.837 --> 49:45.190
[SPEAKER_00]: And you just laid it out that there are several these players who if this year did not go the way you want it used to be that it's like well you just have to accept that you're going to go later in the draft and by the way, your best hope is is you will make that money up 7 to 10 years from now right like because.

49:46.315 --> 49:50.797
[SPEAKER_00]: You're going to go out, you're going to get your bonus going to be less, you're going to be in the minor leagues for the next few years.

49:50.817 --> 49:52.897
[SPEAKER_00]: You're not going to make more money there because you performed.

49:53.317 --> 49:56.118
[SPEAKER_00]: You're not going to make more money and you're one in the majors because you performed.

49:56.138 --> 49:59.099
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe by year two because of performance bonuses and all that.

49:59.519 --> 50:00.580
[SPEAKER_01]: But you really talk about it.

50:00.660 --> 50:01.040
[SPEAKER_01]: Great.

50:01.600 --> 50:02.741
[SPEAKER_00]: And you've got to be great to do that.

50:02.841 --> 50:04.501
[SPEAKER_00]: Really, it's arbitration hits.

50:04.881 --> 50:09.303
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's like your three year four of major league baseball.

50:09.503 --> 50:10.843
[SPEAKER_00]: It all makes more sense.

50:10.943 --> 50:13.084
[SPEAKER_00]: But that's not the same thing we're talking about now.

50:16.085 --> 50:39.411
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, in a lot of cases, if you can make six figures staying at a college program, and yes, you're turning on a larger bonus than what you're going to make, well, that's still a much more of a difficult decision, because also as even, you know, your ex-alum, your ex, the players, your friends with who've gone on to play minor league baseball will tell you, you know, I really love college, college baseball is really fun, minor league baseball got a lot of

50:45.735 --> 50:53.319
[SPEAKER_01]: Now also just say like I'm not I think that we and this is this is a study that you'll see at Baseball America at some point in next couple weeks.

50:54.179 --> 50:58.082
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we're kind of in the era of Max value for seniors as well.

50:58.262 --> 51:09.688
[SPEAKER_01]: Like I don't know that the punishment for going back to school if you are a Cam Johnson or Jake McCoy or Ricky O'Hadah or a number of these guys who have entered the portal as draft eligible players.

51:10.568 --> 51:23.394
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know that you're being punished the same way now as you would have five, six, seven, eight years ago to be an older player in college because we are learning quickly that some of these dudes are just really good.

51:23.514 --> 51:25.535
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, Rugerioha's is gonna be

51:26.818 --> 51:29.200
[SPEAKER_01]: a valuable early round pick.

51:29.280 --> 51:33.904
[SPEAKER_01]: Top three, fourth, if things go really poorly, round pick.

51:34.265 --> 51:39.329
[SPEAKER_01]: Eric knockchim is a guy who I've been obsessed with on this podcast since the beginning of the year.

51:40.110 --> 51:42.532
[SPEAKER_01]: Eric knockchim is a six foot four,

51:43.413 --> 51:59.988
[SPEAKER_01]: career reliever who went back to McNeese state this year as a senior and pitched his brains out with a real fastball draftable qualities and there are teams that are talking about him in a really good position is he going to get less than somebody who's going to go, you know, in front of and directly behind him.

52:00.428 --> 52:04.612
[SPEAKER_01]: Absolutely, because that's that's the nature of the bonus system and being a senior.

52:04.933 --> 52:20.228
[SPEAKER_01]: But as he's going to get punished as much signing bonus wise in the range that he's going to go this year, as he would have if he was in the exact same situation five years ago, six years ago, seven years ago, I personally think he's in way better shape now than he was.

52:20.288 --> 52:21.589
[SPEAKER_01]: And that is a byproduct of

52:22.510 --> 52:29.355
[SPEAKER_01]: the state of baseball, the state of development in baseball, how some of these guys are capable of moving quickly and providing value fast.

52:29.695 --> 52:38.901
[SPEAKER_01]: Like that player has a real spot now in an organization that isn't viewed purely as fodder for a team and it's my early system.

52:39.001 --> 52:44.125
[SPEAKER_01]: Like I think that you can afford a little bit of the risk that comes with, do I go back to school?

52:44.225 --> 52:45.326
[SPEAKER_01]: Do I play another season?

52:45.886 --> 52:47.047
[SPEAKER_01]: And now, by the way,

52:47.447 --> 53:00.132
[SPEAKER_01]: for all the guys that we just named Fluke, even Johnson, McCoy, Oheda, all these guys in theory have not won, but two more years of eligibility remaining.

53:00.627 --> 53:08.529
[SPEAKER_01]: So these are all players who go back to school with that quote unquote leverage that players of old would not have had.

53:08.609 --> 53:20.693
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think the transfer of soft force, yeah, there's their effects use our period on that we've had this is the drug everyone now who used to be we think of as juniors are now draft eligible soft force.

53:21.133 --> 53:25.856
[SPEAKER_01]: And if you're Ricky O'Heta, and he's just a great example of this, there are a number of players who are like this.

53:26.256 --> 53:32.360
[SPEAKER_01]: If you're Ricky O'Heta, not only are you effectively a sophomore because of the new rules, but you're the age of a sophomore as well.

53:32.761 --> 53:40.145
[SPEAKER_01]: So if Ricky O'Heta goes back to college for a fourth season, he would have another year of eligibility left after that, as if he were a junior in 2027,

53:41.466 --> 53:44.309
[SPEAKER_01]: and he will be junior age next year's draft.

53:44.349 --> 53:52.075
[SPEAKER_01]: So all of the negative forces that play that sometimes work against guys that go back to school with a year of eligibility, he's old for the class.

53:52.155 --> 53:54.357
[SPEAKER_01]: He's, you know, it's taken him four years.

53:55.058 --> 54:08.209
[SPEAKER_01]: That all goes out to window for guys like that because he's going to be 21 at the 2027 draft after in theory, 40 years of school and the only difference is now he'll have either done it or not in the SEC

54:10.526 --> 54:15.413
[SPEAKER_01]: massive value if you're a player like that and quite frankly, why would you not?

54:15.533 --> 54:18.377
[SPEAKER_01]: Why would you not go take a chance on yourself if you believe that you can get better?

54:19.700 --> 54:25.563
[SPEAKER_00]: So that is the baseball center college podcast for June 30th, our last one of June.

54:26.223 --> 54:28.364
[SPEAKER_00]: By the way, we are on our off season schedule now.

54:28.464 --> 54:31.205
[SPEAKER_00]: I know that this is coming out a little bit later on Tuesday, bear with us.

54:31.265 --> 54:37.908
[SPEAKER_00]: Like we're trying to, generally, we're still gonna kind of try to stick to the Tuesday schedule but it'll be every other week.

54:38.068 --> 54:41.250
[SPEAKER_00]: So we will be back post draft.

54:41.918 --> 54:48.842
[SPEAKER_00]: And I got to be honest, that one may also be a little bit later in the week because the draft runs through Sunday.

54:49.023 --> 55:01.851
[SPEAKER_00]: And we're going to, but we will review kind of what all that means for college baseball, other things going on in college baseball, probably also talk a little bit about some of the summer ball events and what's going on and players are standing out.

55:02.331 --> 55:03.392
[SPEAKER_00]: All of that in the next pod.

55:03.852 --> 55:09.155
[SPEAKER_00]: And obviously, check out everything's going on at baseballamerica.com for Jacob, I'm JJ.