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[SPEAKER_00]: Hello, everybody.

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[SPEAKER_00]: J.J. Cooper, Ian Cundall, based ball America, Prospect, podcast.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's a big one again this week.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We have a new top hundred update.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We have new top 30 updates.

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[SPEAKER_00]: All of that over at baseballamerica.com, but we're going to talk today about the top hundred.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to talk about really what we're going to do is we're going to highlight six players who all moved either on or significantly up.

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[SPEAKER_00]: on this update's top 100 and we're going to lay a little bit why and kind of some of the interesting discussions around those players.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But Ian, great to see you diving right in.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think this one's a fun one to talk about, which is, we have added Ray's Outfield or Theo Gill and Centerfielder to our top 10 now.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He is at the very back of the top 10 now.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Number eight in the new rankings.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He was 12, so I don't want to make it sound like that this was some, you know, dramatically up the rankings, but he is a top 10 prospect now.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that this has kind of been like, if you just track his progression over the season,

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's all a heading in one direction.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We're not getting any kind of like caution, like whoa, whoa, put more of the brakes on.

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[SPEAKER_00]: When you talk to scouts, you talk to, you know, for us officials, pretty consensus is, this is a guy who is entering the top echelon of prospects in the game at this point.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and I think it's funny because it's not just me.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think Josh has talked about it on here too.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Like, you know, when you're talking to scouts, who were down seeing this out of the late league, where Dylan started the season.

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[SPEAKER_01]: All anyone wants to talk about was him and he has just he's taken a level up with his power.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That's the biggest development last season and it is more or less as a prototype.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You get eight games after being signed in 2024.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He had five home runs this year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He's already got 12 and 63 games and his ex of a lot of these are way up.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You know, this is a guy who is 90 percent L.E.B.

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[SPEAKER_01]: is 117 miles an hour right now.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Which is that's better than guys ahead of him on the list.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That's, you know, one of the top marks in the entire top 100.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And when you have his raw hitting ability and then you provide it now with his ability to produce these, you know, a well above average exit velocities.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's he's the total package of the plate, especially because he can also steal bases, you know, it's a plus front or two.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So you have a guy now who's going to hit for power average and steal bases, but no, yeah, he can play center field.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Um, the arm is not great.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, if we're going to dig in for anything, it's the arm strength.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It is a bit.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That's why it's in center field.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Exactly.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Well, high school shortstop is like, nope, you won't play there.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, but I mean, checks every other box, you know, talking to scouts, you hear things like some sevens on the hate tool.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We have four, six, these, which is something we've heard from multiple people, you know,

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[SPEAKER_01]: This is just he's one of the he's turned himself into one of the actual prospects and all the baseball if you said and I think it's just a real testament because this isn't a guy who was that high of a pet you know who was you if it first round pick I believe yeah 18th overall you know he was out of Chicago or he's originally from Chicago I think he went to high school I believe in Texas right but you know this wasn't one of the top 10 you know Pixar so this this was a high school guy had some questions started shortstop

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[SPEAKER_01]: just under two years has turned itself into one of the best-outhing prospects in all days for.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And this is another guy goes back to the added shelf.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Well, why did they take this high school short stuff?

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[SPEAKER_00]: They've always got her, are you got a short stuff?

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's like, no, you take high school short stuff because you can think of that as like the clay that can be molded into whatever you need them to be.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And this is an example.

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[SPEAKER_00]: This Theo Gil and is a very solid, a very good centerfielder, defensively now.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Awal Jackson Merrill, a guy who basically wasn't a short, I mean, wasn't a centerfielder, wasn't a centerfielder.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, you make a centerfielder.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He's a good centerfielder.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's something where

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[SPEAKER_00]: high school, where do you put the best athlete on the field?

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[SPEAKER_00]: You put a mature stop, high school short stops are the best athletes on their team, and they go a lot of different directions.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But I think the key thing that says like, where I feel like very comfortable about him is really to be honest, even with the other, when we talk about the top here,

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[SPEAKER_00]: of of hitting prospects in the game right now, which we're a little bit lower than we work, because I mean, we just graduated a Connor Griffin in a Kevin McGonagall and a JJ Weatherland.

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[SPEAKER_00]: That was our one, two, three at the start of the year.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think there's no one in the Conrad Riffin tier right now, and there's really no one in the Kevin McGonagall tier right now.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Like, hey, this is Monday is a very good prospect, but like, we have him cut of in one tier, which is a 70 average grade.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And then we have all these guys who are in that next tier down, and that would be all still looking up at the Griffin McGonagall, you know, like those guys at the start of the year.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But of this group,

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[SPEAKER_00]: I kind of like, Gillin, it's really, if you said, what am I most worried about with Gillin?

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[SPEAKER_00]: He missed second half of your last year.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He had kind of some injuries in high school.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Like, I just wanted to stay healthy, which is always a concern.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But other than that, like, I would say that with his hit tool, there's always the possibility that he ends up being less than we expect as far as power as far as impact all that.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But it's really hard to see

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[SPEAKER_00]: Like, if you're comparing him to, you know, like any Eli Willets who's not far behind him, again, Eli Willets has a pretty eye florex, but I think his defense is going to be good.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He can run the bases.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But like, okay, like, to Max Clark, who's now ahead of.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I didn't actually feel more comfortable.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I feel comfortable with Max Clark's hit tool, but I feel more comfortable on Gillins.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I feel more comfortable on Gillins power.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He really has kind of turned himself into very quickly,

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[SPEAKER_01]: glaring red flags left on the on the scouting reported me yeah i think it as i said the arm and then the only other thing is there are some platoon splits but the thing is and i i don't know if it seems like this is something just across all the baseball there just are not a lot of lefties and the miners right now

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[SPEAKER_01]: And so, you know, it's 51 plate appearances this year against lathees, it's 178 OPS versus against varieties, ESOPS is over 10-50.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So, there's a split there, but I think that's one of those things that's just going to improve with wraps.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Like we see it in the big leagues this year, and somebody comes to mind is Willier Brey with the Red Sox.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You know, coming into the season, he really struggling against lathees.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He's completely flipped that this year.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And he's hitting lathees better than he's hitting rightees.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And so, I think that's something that's going to improve so you get some more wraps.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Um, but yeah, I mean, I guess right, he's like, he's one of, I think if you're, if you're going to talk about the guys that I would want facing right hand a picture who are in the minors right now, it's probably him and host way to Paula would be probably my talk to choices, even ahead of guys like,

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think those two offensively just have some of the highest feelings of anyone in the top 100.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Um, because that's, yeah, with, with the day, if you said, hey, you're going to be against a control artist, but you know, like a walk is what you need here.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Also, that's for a Monday.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's the guys, like, okay, you may spit on that pretty well.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But,

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[SPEAKER_00]: Again, this sees these are the elite prospects of the game, but we've talked about Gill and you and I have a good bit this year.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We've talked on the podcast about our next guy we're going to talk about, but we can't not talk about him because I would say at this point,

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[SPEAKER_00]: We talked about Theo Gillin and how many conversations you're having with people about Theo Gillin.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I feel like you're having as many of an Eric Hartman who, let's be clear, when the season started, Theo Gillin has ascended to the top 10, but Theo Gillin came into the year as absolutely an elite prospect who you just wanted to see, yet 73 games.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I think last year, you just want to see more.

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[SPEAKER_00]: You want to see him do it more, do it at a higher level.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Eric Hartman came into the year as a back of the brave top 30 prospect, who now, when we were talking about this, he joined the list in early May.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He then the next time we did the update, we were like, nope, you are a rocket ship.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And I believe it was 60 or some around there.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And here we are a month later, and

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[SPEAKER_00]: He's still high at Rome, you know, we kind of were expecting like maybe at some point we'll go to double it, although I'll tell you that that is a terrible place to hit is uh, no, I'm sorry, was mis to be, Columbus still not great, better mis to be was, but um, but here we are, we put him 25 on the list and I do feel like that, that Ian like, this is one where.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I could make an argument at like 13, 14, or I could make an argument at 45, 50.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And I feel like I could make the case for it because this is that balance of impact versus risk.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And the risk with Eric Hartman is not, there is some hit tool risk.

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[SPEAKER_00]: There's some real hit tool risk.

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[SPEAKER_00]: It's more

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[SPEAKER_00]: the length of track record of doing this where you're like, okay, am I getting, are we going overboard on what's now half of a minor league season?

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[SPEAKER_00]: But how easy is it to not go overboard on a guy who's athletic, who's an impact defender in the center field, and who's on his way

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[SPEAKER_00]: And he said, as we record this, he said, 19 homers and 27 steels, 29 steels.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So, 20, 29, 29 steels.

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[SPEAKER_00]: So, 20, 20 could be done basically by the end of this week.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And 30, 30 would be like, oh, he telled off really bad in the second half.

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[SPEAKER_00]: How hard is it though to calibrate

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's it's really interesting because I think what you said it really sums it up well that it's you have to balance the risk with the upside here because This is a guy who in terms of training each or baseball is Well below a lot of his peers even in the high even the high.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, because he's a guy came from Canada.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He's not he didn't have the same exposure coming out of that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He doesn't have the same, you know, build up of reps that a guy even like feel Gillan had coming out of a high school in Texas.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So he's just a lot newer and it's

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[SPEAKER_01]: He's still learning on the job in a weird way.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Like I know, you talked to outfielders, and it's like, excuse me, you talked to the talk to the evaluators.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And...

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[SPEAKER_01]: great tools like they think he can play it center field eventually right now not very good out there because he's kind of just learning on the job he's insane athlete you might be an 80 runner but he's kind of learning how to play baseball still because he was a hockey player growing up and I just want to know what that like I can see yes you're right he's not good right now although he also does make some highlight plays although this highlight plays often comes where he took a bad read a little bit

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[SPEAKER_00]: He took a step and then he's like, oh, and then once the burners like once he kicks in the after burners It's like he covers ground really quickly makes a diving catcher like that was a great play Yeah, they have made a little harder from self at the start than you know Then you need to.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Sorry.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, but and so like he still is on the raw side and yet as you said He's on pace to go 2030 where the all-star break while hitting close to 300 with a 360 O BP in a slug above 550 and

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[SPEAKER_01]: everything when you look at the data to you look at the you watch them on video like hits the ball extremely hard and you know that's something as we talked about with Gill and we talked about it with a lot of guys he hit the ball hard it goes a long way in terms of your prospects status and the thing that makes him so interesting though is he pairs it with elite athleticism it's 70 to 80 run times depending on who you talk to it's

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[SPEAKER_01]: the hit tool right now as you said there is some risk there and I think that's what's baked into his ranking because if you're just going off raw tools and like future value taking out risk he's probably in the top 10 of all of I would say of our top boy he would rank in the top 10 if you're taking risk out of the equation.

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[SPEAKER_01]: you obviously have to factor a risk in when you're doing these evaluations.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And that's why he's at 25.

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[SPEAKER_01]: He's not in that elite tier yet, but if he continues showing the skills that he has so far, he continues to build on them.

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[SPEAKER_01]: This is season goes on in into next season.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That's he has the ability to be able to make that jump eventually.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's just little things like, hey, cut down the chase.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Like, you know, it's chase rate right now is close, it's a little under 30% which is too high.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But again, this is a guy who does not have a ton of baseball experience.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I have more faith that

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[SPEAKER_01]: We'll improve on that than someone who we have a long track record dating back to their freshman year of high school where we've seen it over and over again in Showcase tournaments.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You have because a lot of these drafties, they come in with a baseline of you know five six hundred pitches.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You and Carlos have talked about it on the draft podcast before you know you can get data on call on high schoolers now going back to chase rates contact rates everything.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You know, we just don't have a lot of that with Hartman.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We're still building that baseline and that's why he's such a fascinating player to talk to with scouts because coming in the year, you know,

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[SPEAKER_01]: last year, he had four homeruns, or excuse me, five homeruns, and had a 6909 OPS, you know, as an 18-year-old, very good, but it wasn't someone who was jumping off the page, you know, he ranked near the back of the top 30.

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[SPEAKER_01]: This year, you knew right away, you know, there were people in April, I came to you and April and I was like, hey, we went need to watch out for this guy, and it's only spiral from there, and yeah, I mean, he's a really exciting player, and he's really fun to watch, you know, just the way he hits, the way he approaches the game, it's a very unique swing.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I kind of talked.

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[SPEAKER_01]: We talked about it.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think on here, but it's like a reverse arm bar kind of with the way you swing.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Because there's some hockey shot influences.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And the way I've ever heard reverse arm bar before, but I think it's a good description.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and that's it also leads to a huge air pull rate.

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[SPEAKER_01]: Which, obviously, we know a lot of teams covered that these days.

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[SPEAKER_01]: So, I think another thing that's going to be interesting with him and why it's a good time to have him in a fair spot is, he's probably going to be one of the most asked players at the deadline assuming the brave survivors.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And so it's going to be really interesting to see how that kind of gets handled.

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[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, I think

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[SPEAKER_01]: You know, we ended up in a really good spot with Hartman and I've been very happy with our process and getting him there.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I think that that we've been very realistic and, you know, gathering more info and adjusting as necessary.

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[SPEAKER_01]: That's the whole thing with this.

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[SPEAKER_01]: It's all a snapshot in time.

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[SPEAKER_01]: And so that's why things can change.

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[SPEAKER_01]: I don't feel bad about, you know, missing out on Hartman in the off season versus now.

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[SPEAKER_01]: You know, these guys, they're humans.

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[SPEAKER_01]: They can improve and he's not a great job of that.

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[SPEAKER_01]: The brave's deserve a ton of credit for it, too.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We studied this, like I did a study that came up at baseball america.com yesterday, it's up, you know, still there now about like how guys do that we add in season.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And one of the things that does stand out is especially, again, I'm only studying a couple of years now.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We've only been doing the monthly updates like this since 2022, I believe, I'm going to go back.

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[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe we did in 2021.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I was here.

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[SPEAKER_00]: I should remember this.

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[SPEAKER_00]: But like maybe we did more often.

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[SPEAKER_00]: We've been doing midseason updates for

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[SPEAKER_00]: years and years because I mean that was something else and well the first thing is I got to be in charge of this prospect side on like twenty two thousand nine two thousand ten but but one of the things that stands out is is the guys who leap onto the hundred in May are often the guys here like oh I'm really glad that we added that guy right because and I would say if you said well why is that it's like

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[SPEAKER_00]: because that's kind of the time where, okay, if you say like, well, what give me an example of that?

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[SPEAKER_00]: Well, like Pete Crow Armstrong joining it in 2022, right?

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[SPEAKER_00]: Where, so no one really great defender, but then we saw more offensive impact and then he took up kind of a leap or, you know, Bryce Trorang joined the May 2022.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And again, these were guys we knew more about than we know about.

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[SPEAKER_00]: These were those were prominent, you know, first round pick type guys, but, you know, Jackson Trorio joining.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And guys like that, where it's like, okay, early season guys who pop,

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[SPEAKER_00]: our guys who often it's because they've established a new level.

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[SPEAKER_00]: And I think you spelled it out really well there, which is

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[SPEAKER_00]: There's no way to rank that guy that high, coming out of last season, going into this season.

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[SPEAKER_00]: He had to make the leap.

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[SPEAKER_00]: You can say he's got tools, but you need to see some of that before you're like, oh, this is where this guy is speaking of that.

15:53.880 --> 16:06.848
[SPEAKER_00]: Got another guy who's actually, I would say, we're really aren't going with the bats right here, but another guy who's hit tools one of the best in the lower miners and a guy who's bat is really, who's carried him into the top 30, we'll cover that right after the quick break.

16:09.283 --> 16:09.763
[SPEAKER_00]: And we're back.

16:10.184 --> 16:32.657
[SPEAKER_00]: So another guy that we had a lot of fun talking about and figuring out where to slot is Cubs out fitter Josiah Hartchworn, who, we talked about Eric Hart, we talked about the appeal and those are center fielders, Gillin's a little bit more polished at it right now with Hartman, but both of those we feel like are gonna be center fielders in the Hartman's case or he'll be a really speedy corner.

16:34.349 --> 16:39.554
[SPEAKER_00]: Hard short is going to be a bat or a filter or a first place.

16:40.234 --> 16:51.684
[SPEAKER_00]: You're not counting on any real significant value from the defense of profile and you could be like, well, then how is that guy a top 30 prospect in the game and I would say.

16:52.642 --> 16:54.503
[SPEAKER_00]: If the bat's good enough, you just don't care.

16:54.563 --> 16:56.124
[SPEAKER_00]: And you're just like, okay, give me an example of that.

16:56.665 --> 16:59.606
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm glad we had your novel as really high years and years ago.

17:00.167 --> 17:04.489
[SPEAKER_00]: And word novel as had no defense of value was a first base and left field or DH.

17:05.450 --> 17:11.534
[SPEAKER_00]: But if the bat's that good, and Ian, I feel like that the bat could be this good, which is why I harsher.

17:12.180 --> 17:15.042
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, it's what he's doing is really impressive.

17:15.482 --> 17:21.467
[SPEAKER_01]: He's an interesting one because he was a fifth round pick, but or excuse me, a sixth round pick, but that's deceiving, because he signed for $2 million.

17:21.527 --> 17:24.308
[SPEAKER_01]: So clearly, the club's value is around a second rounder.

17:24.869 --> 17:27.751
[SPEAKER_01]: And what he's done in this year has been nothing short of spectacular.

17:27.771 --> 17:30.353
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, got a pretty aggressive assignment, went to low-A.

17:30.873 --> 17:37.756
[SPEAKER_01]: He had a 84 OPS and since he's been promoted to Hi-A, his OPS has increased by 200 points, our 150 points.

17:38.077 --> 17:43.759
[SPEAKER_01]: He's now hitting 315-385 with a 630-slug in Hi-A.

17:44.220 --> 17:49.742
[SPEAKER_01]: The thing that really just stands out for me and you look at, basically, walks as much as he strikes out.

17:50.062 --> 17:55.905
[SPEAKER_01]: He's got one of the most advanced approaches, I think, when we're looking especially for his age, let alone probably even

18:00.122 --> 18:01.143
[SPEAKER_01]: You look at the underlying data.

18:01.323 --> 18:02.223
[SPEAKER_01]: It backs up the approach.

18:02.263 --> 18:02.984
[SPEAKER_01]: He doesn't chase.

18:03.564 --> 18:04.825
[SPEAKER_01]: He makes good swing decisions.

18:05.025 --> 18:06.626
[SPEAKER_01]: When he does swing, he rarely misses.

18:07.206 --> 18:09.288
[SPEAKER_01]: And oh, yeah, he's also got power.

18:10.348 --> 18:15.812
[SPEAKER_01]: So really appealing skill set, especially if you have limited defensive value, you check all the boxes offensively with that.

18:15.912 --> 18:27.179
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, it's been, I would say more, you know, this is more of the out of left field one, similar to the Hartman than some of the Gillin who was well inside, I think he was in them, you know, the mid 50s when we started the season,

18:28.059 --> 18:36.883
[SPEAKER_01]: This was a six round pick last year, but it's hard to argue with the production when it's backed up then by underlying data and scouting or talking to evaluators.

18:37.183 --> 18:45.507
[SPEAKER_01]: When you have that all three of those supporting it, I'm fine being aggressive on someone like this because the end of the day betting on the hit tool, it can get you really far in this game.

18:46.988 --> 18:48.849
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think it's worth laying out here, right?

18:49.069 --> 18:50.970
[SPEAKER_00]: So usually,

18:51.900 --> 18:57.404
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll give an analogy that for younger people to me, but hey, I'll do love video games too, right?

18:57.944 --> 18:59.805
[SPEAKER_00]: So if you've got him, I'll be the show.

18:59.965 --> 19:02.347
[SPEAKER_00]: If you've got Madden or whatever, you know, you've got the sliders, right?

19:02.387 --> 19:06.749
[SPEAKER_00]: And usually what happens is you can either move this up or you can move this up, right?

19:07.210 --> 19:10.412
[SPEAKER_00]: And a lot of times with hitters, that's kind of what we're talking about, right?

19:10.472 --> 19:18.257
[SPEAKER_00]: Young hitters is like, you'll get that this guy, this guy here, has elite power, you know, like you see the EVs right now,

19:20.901 --> 19:25.503
[SPEAKER_00]: adequate swing decisions, maybe, which would be a good, a very good combo, right?

19:25.863 --> 19:33.047
[SPEAKER_00]: But then you see like, okay, he's, you know, then you see like there's a passivity to it, or an over aggressiveness to it.

19:33.467 --> 19:38.729
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a problem about his, you know, he can't really handle sliders, you know, in this like there's an inzone issue.

19:39.129 --> 19:44.592
[SPEAKER_00]: Usually it's like, okay, you've got this well, you've got this a little bit and you really don't have this, you got it on with that.

19:44.912 --> 19:47.874
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, another guy may be like, oh, he's got great content.

19:47.894 --> 19:49.796
[SPEAKER_00]: Bowdyne, the rays have just promoted catcher.

19:50.096 --> 19:53.959
[SPEAKER_00]: Hey, bowdyne's contact skills are among the best of the miners.

19:53.979 --> 19:57.862
[SPEAKER_00]: Like they're top top tier, the EVs, you don't know.

19:57.882 --> 20:00.985
[SPEAKER_00]: That's not what you're going to get the ability to pull them on the air consistently for power.

20:01.005 --> 20:02.146
[SPEAKER_00]: That's not what you're going to get, right?

20:02.486 --> 20:03.587
[SPEAKER_00]: So most,

20:05.000 --> 20:08.162
[SPEAKER_00]: even really good prospects in the minor leagues.

20:08.662 --> 20:10.763
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like, you've got this, you don't have this.

20:11.063 --> 20:23.249
[SPEAKER_00]: And we usually, the key thing, the difference between that and say like Tony Blanco Jr., who has the best EVs in the minor leagues year after year after year, it's like, okay, that slider's maxed out at 100 on the slider.

20:23.589 --> 20:26.250
[SPEAKER_00]: And everything else is kind of like, it's where you're some right.

20:26.270 --> 20:29.512
[SPEAKER_00]: So you need a little bit more of a balance of it to be in a league prospect.

20:29.952 --> 20:31.633
[SPEAKER_00]: But in hard-churns case,

20:33.020 --> 20:38.256
[SPEAKER_00]: There aren't, this is, again, I hesitate to say this because

20:39.472 --> 20:44.755
[SPEAKER_00]: Kevin McGonagall is like was the unique unicorn last year where we wrote about it the offseason.

20:44.775 --> 20:48.897
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like there is nothing that Kevin McGonagall's a hitter is not it'll eat that.

20:49.257 --> 20:50.638
[SPEAKER_00]: His swing decisions are elite.

20:50.758 --> 20:52.579
[SPEAKER_00]: His pitch recognition is elite.

20:52.979 --> 20:55.320
[SPEAKER_00]: His aggressiveness is appropriate.

20:55.360 --> 20:56.621
[SPEAKER_00]: His power is elite.

20:56.641 --> 21:03.124
[SPEAKER_00]: Like all of these things were like if you said show me the best in the minor leagues at this, he was good at all of them.

21:04.197 --> 21:12.167
[SPEAKER_00]: Josiah Hortchern is not at that level of like, he's in the top 10% tall of everything, but he's in the top 20% tall of everything.

21:12.287 --> 21:23.320
[SPEAKER_00]: If you consider especially his age and love for appropriateness for level and all this, a 30-year-old doing it in Triple A is not the same thing as a teenager doing it in high A.

21:25.635 --> 21:28.277
[SPEAKER_00]: again, there's not a whole lot of defensive value here.

21:28.918 --> 21:40.368
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a switch hitter who is better against right handers than lefties right now, although against lefties, he knows how to take a walk, you know, which is enough of a skill, a survival skill to do that so far.

21:40.408 --> 21:44.933
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, in his case, I think it's like, he has 52 play to her and says gets left.

21:45.093 --> 21:47.495
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's a switch in her and you see, yeah.

21:48.586 --> 21:49.627
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a lot to like here.

21:49.687 --> 21:52.129
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a lot of reasons why we were that aggressive with it.

21:52.149 --> 21:54.531
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, like you said, yes, we're balancing risk.

21:54.611 --> 22:03.779
[SPEAKER_00]: But in his case, if you really believe in the bat, I mean, really what you're talking about, OK, we got Orange Lutheran here, California High School Kid.

22:04.680 --> 22:08.924
[SPEAKER_00]: We've got Ralphie Velasquez, kind of coming up, who's the Huntington Beach Kid.

22:09.244 --> 22:10.085
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's like,

22:11.050 --> 22:12.453
[SPEAKER_00]: Those are, we're betting on bats.

22:12.674 --> 22:15.600
[SPEAKER_00]: It both those cases, but the bats are really, really good.

22:15.981 --> 22:19.789
[SPEAKER_00]: So there's another guy speaking of hit tools.

22:20.790 --> 22:25.794
[SPEAKER_00]: Jason Turreal, the Guardian Southfitter, re-turns to the 100 and very aggressively.

22:25.814 --> 22:27.375
[SPEAKER_00]: We put them back in the 40s.

22:27.815 --> 22:28.856
[SPEAKER_00]: And I get it.

22:28.976 --> 22:39.664
[SPEAKER_00]: Like I want to say, I want to be completely transparent about we lay out, you go to baseballmerica.com and see every top 100 update going back to 2022.

22:40.064 --> 22:44.868
[SPEAKER_00]: So if you're wondering how often we yo-yo a guy on and off,

22:45.588 --> 22:46.009
[SPEAKER_00]: It's there.

22:46.109 --> 22:55.422
[SPEAKER_00]: You can see it, you know, but so I want to start by saying Jason Trios been in this range before I'm 100 and then he dropped off of it and you say, well, I did drop off last year.

22:55.442 --> 23:00.829
[SPEAKER_00]: He was hurt, but last year it really was like we did not see.

23:01.762 --> 23:02.503
[SPEAKER_00]: the impact.

23:02.543 --> 23:09.533
[SPEAKER_00]: We did not see the ability to hit the ball with even a reasonable amount of impetus behind it.

23:09.573 --> 23:16.502
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, it was the power, which it's not power, it's not going to be Jason Tree's game, but the power absolutely disappeared last year.

23:17.283 --> 23:18.865
[SPEAKER_00]: You've got to have some gap power and all.

23:19.650 --> 23:20.451
[SPEAKER_00]: Go ahead.

23:20.851 --> 23:21.171
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

23:21.191 --> 23:27.856
[SPEAKER_01]: I was just going to provide some context on that last year, Jason Shereo had a 286 lug, 286.

23:28.356 --> 23:31.278
[SPEAKER_01]: And as you said, he was hurt, but it was still at 87-game sample size.

23:32.139 --> 23:39.324
[SPEAKER_01]: His EVs, you were looking at 90th is just around 102, 102 miles an hour, and you saw it.

23:39.364 --> 23:47.370
[SPEAKER_01]: And the average EV was the one I would flag with him, because as you said, he's not really a power hit or his average EV last year was just over 87 miles an hour, which is.

23:48.130 --> 23:49.431
[SPEAKER_01]: and not great.

23:49.471 --> 23:53.313
[SPEAKER_00]: 87 games last year 10 extra base hit 7 doubles triple and two homer.

23:53.453 --> 24:00.217
[SPEAKER_00]: So we dropped it off 100 because as much as we like Jason Trudeau's ability get on base is hitting ability and as potential to be an impact offender.

24:02.999 --> 24:06.141
[SPEAKER_00]: That profile just no, you know, no.

24:07.283 --> 24:10.404
[SPEAKER_00]: Thankfully, and again, as we always say, we root for prospects here.

24:10.904 --> 24:20.648
[SPEAKER_00]: It is very cool to see that Jason Tureo is healthy, and he's back to being the guy that we thought he was in 24 when he had a very impactful season.

24:21.068 --> 24:30.051
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, again, power's not his game, but so far, 13 doubles, two triples, six homeruns, four, 60 slugging, and that's like a 170 ISO.

24:30.432 --> 24:33.833
[SPEAKER_00]: You can give a little bit more context behind that as well, but putting it all together,

24:34.473 --> 24:36.514
[SPEAKER_00]: This is the guy that we saw in 24.

24:36.594 --> 24:49.117
[SPEAKER_00]: He's healthy, so the plate discipline, there's the drawing locks, there's the stilling, he's already stole 17 bags this year, he stole 10 last year, he's just better, he's just healthy again.

24:49.837 --> 24:57.699
[SPEAKER_00]: We're putting him back where he was, now that we feel comfortable, we didn't wanna go overboard too quickly on, okay, let's see him how he holds up.

24:57.799 --> 25:03.140
[SPEAKER_00]: Now that he's holding up, it's like the reviews are put him back where he was, but any further context?

25:03.420 --> 25:06.902
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, just like his average EVs up four miles an hour, this year's hard hit rate is up.

25:07.122 --> 25:09.623
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, he's just impacting the ball at a much higher level.

25:09.643 --> 25:11.464
[SPEAKER_01]: The quality of contact is improved drastically.

25:11.504 --> 25:16.907
[SPEAKER_01]: And when you're player like him, who's not going to be an over the fence power guy, is more adapt to gap, you need that quality of contact.

25:16.927 --> 25:19.268
[SPEAKER_01]: Because you can't, we've seen it over and over again.

25:19.388 --> 25:23.270
[SPEAKER_01]: If MLB pictures, no, you're not going to be able to punish them, they don't care.

25:23.650 --> 25:26.412
[SPEAKER_01]: Nick Madger call, I think, is the best example of that we've had in recent years.

25:27.032 --> 25:34.078
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think we're seeing it with some of the younger guys who got up into the big leagues this year, you know, some of the guys like Justin Crawford, it's kind of like pictures of realized he's not going to do any damage against them.

25:34.098 --> 25:37.500
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you eat, there's a certain barrier you need to be able to do.

25:37.540 --> 25:43.605
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think Churio has reached that level with the hard hit rate with the average EVs that now that, hey, if you make a mistake, he's going to hit it in the gap.

25:43.625 --> 25:45.787
[SPEAKER_01]: And because of his speed, he's going to play it into a triple probably.

25:46.287 --> 26:02.194
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's kind of going to be his game, you know, he's going to probably not be a ton of home runs even in the major league level, but if he can just be a well above average hitter, get on base that are extremely high clip and, you know, add eight, 10 home runs, that's going to be a very, very valuable player given his secondary skills.

26:03.014 --> 26:08.797
[SPEAKER_00]: And even with kind of the semi-lossies and last year, he's a 21-year-old now in double lay in the eastern league.

26:08.837 --> 26:10.538
[SPEAKER_00]: So he's also young for the level.

26:12.217 --> 26:18.982
[SPEAKER_00]: The guardians, again, I know it gets repetitive, but there are systems where it's like, oh, you know, the guardians have a ton of bats.

26:19.003 --> 26:20.964
[SPEAKER_00]: Like we could talk about Unicard Serus here.

26:20.984 --> 26:27.028
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, we got, if we talked about Ralfi Velasquez for a minute there, we could talk about, they have more catchers right now.

26:27.089 --> 26:38.857
[SPEAKER_00]: Like it's an absurd number of catchers and I had to add another catcher to their top 30 this month because they have catchers leads to miners in OVP and by the way, he's not bad defensively and there's some pedigree and all that as well.

26:39.958 --> 26:50.288
[SPEAKER_00]: It's something where it's like, okay, speaking of like, we're going to get to the brewers in a little while too, because we could literally do make this a brewers podcast and we could talk for three hours about how many interesting guys they have.

26:50.908 --> 26:54.792
[SPEAKER_00]: But after the break, after the break, we're going to go to something that's a little different.

26:55.212 --> 26:58.976
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to talk about an Orioles pitching prospect joining the top hundred.

26:59.696 --> 27:04.080
[SPEAKER_00]: They've had a lot more hitters than the hundred, last few years than pictures, but we have one of those and we'll talk about that right after

27:06.841 --> 27:08.342
[SPEAKER_00]: So Ian, we're back.

27:09.222 --> 27:11.223
[SPEAKER_00]: And this was one that you really pushed for.

27:11.263 --> 27:15.485
[SPEAKER_00]: We kind of started to get impetus for it last month.

27:15.545 --> 27:18.067
[SPEAKER_00]: And we're like, you know what?

27:18.367 --> 27:19.287
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's be cautious.

27:20.368 --> 27:28.932
[SPEAKER_00]: A month later, it became a very easy decision that Orioles lefty Joseph Zerva is now a top 100 prospect.

27:30.247 --> 27:40.458
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and I think for me and I why I agreed with being cautious at the time was this is a college guy from I mean the big 10, you know, not the best baseball conference, but it's still a good one.

27:41.039 --> 27:45.784
[SPEAKER_01]: And I don't know how much the pains he had to say that well, especially because of the schooling went to, but

27:47.306 --> 28:10.260
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, he got up to AA and he's been better in AA that he wasn't high and I think that's that's what really put it over the top for me is seeing him as kind of against more age-appropriate competition teams are obviously pushing there as I think especially hitters more aggressively now so you get up to AA even and you're facing as I mean we mentioned if Jason Churion was there he's 21 and he's one of the older guys just on our short

28:11.741 --> 28:15.462
[SPEAKER_01]: is there, Eric Hartman, also in high, those guys are 19-eight or still.

28:15.842 --> 28:24.345
[SPEAKER_01]: And so you want to see someone like Joe, especially given he doesn't really have right now as third pitch is kind of a work in progress, do it against better competition and that's exactly what he's done.

28:24.705 --> 28:29.407
[SPEAKER_01]: He's gone up to AA, he's got 46 straightouts and 35 and two third dittings nine locks.

28:30.147 --> 28:48.023
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think the thing with me or for me with him is that there's just such a high floor because he's a six eight lefty with a deceptive delivery and a plus change up and we have seen that type of player pitch in the big leagues before you know Andrew Miller made a career being a two pitch lefty who's huge size in a deceptive delivery.

28:48.623 --> 28:50.784
[SPEAKER_01]: That's kind of the baseline you're looking at with some like Gerurgs.

28:50.804 --> 28:52.724
[SPEAKER_01]: He throws a ton of strikes is the other part too.

28:53.225 --> 28:59.267
[SPEAKER_01]: For this season, I think, yeah, he has 19 walks in 76 and 30 things this year.

28:59.587 --> 29:02.628
[SPEAKER_00]: So I love strike percentage 68% strike percentage this year.

29:02.648 --> 29:03.168
[SPEAKER_00]: 68% is really like,

29:06.609 --> 29:09.171
[SPEAKER_00]: about as high, about as high as really to be honest as you want to go.

29:09.211 --> 29:15.355
[SPEAKER_00]: You get much over that and much as you said about like that the pitchers won't respect you if they know that you're, you can't do anything.

29:15.715 --> 29:21.459
[SPEAKER_00]: The flip side of that is, if you never miss hitters are going to be like, oh, I just swing all the time because you're always around the zone.

29:21.859 --> 29:23.840
[SPEAKER_00]: But I want to bring up one other start with him.

29:24.260 --> 29:25.241
[SPEAKER_00]: I think this is crucial.

29:25.261 --> 29:26.682
[SPEAKER_00]: Like we're seeing a lot now.

29:28.415 --> 29:32.637
[SPEAKER_00]: we're seeing in the minor league game this year and we're probably going to do a full podcast about this at some point.

29:32.657 --> 29:45.103
[SPEAKER_00]: We've done stories about this at BaseballMaker.com, but the absolutely bonkers increase in home run rate in the minors, effects both hitters and pitchers, and

29:45.843 --> 29:50.785
[SPEAKER_00]: out of chat question this week about why raise pitcher San Diego Suarez struggling this year.

29:50.805 --> 29:58.088
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like, remember what we just said about the strike rate in the 68% San Diego Suarez has among the best command in baseball.

29:58.448 --> 30:07.451
[SPEAKER_00]: He's always in the zone, but the problem is is he went from last year where if you were always in the zone and the home run rate in a league is like 0.6.7 per game.

30:10.272 --> 30:11.433
[SPEAKER_00]: you're not getting punished for that.

30:12.014 --> 30:20.502
[SPEAKER_00]: Now the home run rates like 1.1 home runs per game in a lot of these leagues and his home run rates skyrocketed, that's led to him, his problems.

30:21.261 --> 30:25.904
[SPEAKER_00]: Zerwa has allowed two home runs in 76 innings this year.

30:26.365 --> 30:31.248
[SPEAKER_00]: If you want to ask me like what are the keys to a success, throw strikes, have a change up and do that.

30:32.089 --> 30:43.177
[SPEAKER_00]: But the other thing that I wanted to bring up, you said like that we're doing it in double A, the key thing to me with that is this, I hate to say it, but if you're a change up pitcher having success in A ball, I almost don't care.

30:43.637 --> 30:46.219
[SPEAKER_00]: Because you don't have to be a great change up.

30:46.479 --> 30:46.800
[SPEAKER_00]: No.

30:47.540 --> 30:48.121
[SPEAKER_00]: In low A,

30:49.003 --> 30:58.467
[SPEAKER_00]: If you have a 40 change up and you have belief in it and any kind of fast ball, you can just carve line up.

30:58.547 --> 31:01.948
[SPEAKER_00]: Those are hitters who have never seen that.

31:02.408 --> 31:06.510
[SPEAKER_00]: And every time they see it, they swing out of their shoes thinking, nope, fast bomb hit.

31:06.710 --> 31:08.871
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, okay, I'm going to double.

31:08.951 --> 31:11.912
[SPEAKER_00]: I, you start to see that that starts to filter out a little bit.

31:12.612 --> 31:13.452
[SPEAKER_00]: and he's still doing it.

31:13.652 --> 31:15.893
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's that's what you want to see.

31:16.373 --> 31:21.615
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, yeah, and the thing that it also excites me about what he's doing is he's doing this without his best velocity.

31:21.635 --> 31:38.740
[SPEAKER_01]: We saw him back in the spring break out game and I think one of the big things I've learned this year is take sprint training velocity with an absolute great of salt because we see a bunch of pitchers this year who we show big me loader spring and it's kind of tail off obviously because it's very different environment when you're from three innings when your arm is perfectly fresh versus as this is

31:39.200 --> 31:40.421
[SPEAKER_01]: dog days of the season go on.

31:40.861 --> 31:45.905
[SPEAKER_01]: But he's pitching, you know, he's sitting 92, 93 miles an hour up to 96.

31:46.285 --> 31:49.107
[SPEAKER_01]: But his fastball has a whiff rate over 30 percent.

31:49.247 --> 31:52.009
[SPEAKER_01]: And as you said, the strike rate is well over 70 percent on it.

31:52.729 --> 31:55.831
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a really good combination when you pair that with the change of it.

31:56.111 --> 31:57.953
[SPEAKER_01]: Even though the breaking balls don't scout as well as

31:58.593 --> 32:17.489
[SPEAKER_01]: their whiff rates would suggest if you can just get one of those to average like it's easy to envision him developing a new immigration starter and even if he doesn't he probably could still be a back end guy which is I think plays into the four aspects of it like worst cases are reliever but worst case truly might just be ease of number four and number five starter which is we've seen as a very valuable player in this day in Asia.

32:19.321 --> 32:23.984
[SPEAKER_00]: But yeah, I just think he is a, again, he was actually relatively easy.

32:24.604 --> 32:25.825
[SPEAKER_00]: You get to the back of the list.

32:26.386 --> 32:28.387
[SPEAKER_00]: There are guys who did not make this.

32:28.447 --> 32:29.247
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll tell you right now.

32:29.347 --> 32:31.489
[SPEAKER_00]: Like we had a long discussion about Owen Ayers.

32:31.509 --> 32:33.650
[SPEAKER_00]: We talked about on the podcast recently.

32:34.951 --> 32:36.212
[SPEAKER_00]: And he's not 100 right now.

32:36.332 --> 32:37.853
[SPEAKER_00]: I think you'll join it before long.

32:37.933 --> 32:38.253
[SPEAKER_00]: But like,

32:40.320 --> 32:41.041
[SPEAKER_00]: long discussions.

32:41.101 --> 32:41.922
[SPEAKER_00]: We had more guys.

32:41.962 --> 32:48.390
[SPEAKER_00]: I will say, the good thing I feel good about is is normally at this time of year, it feels like it starts getting really light.

32:48.591 --> 32:51.074
[SPEAKER_00]: We had more guys that we wanted to fund 100 than we have spots.

32:51.114 --> 32:52.936
[SPEAKER_00]: Like why is Sam for dropped off?

32:53.237 --> 32:57.602
[SPEAKER_00]: Not because we thought why it's Sam for need to drop off just because we had guys we felt we needed to add.

32:58.303 --> 33:03.244
[SPEAKER_00]: We hate yo-yo and guys, but at the same time, you only put, when we were saying you do a hundred, you only put a hundred.

33:03.924 --> 33:12.286
[SPEAKER_00]: And one of the reasons that we had to, that we felt we needed to yo-yo off why it's Sanford, is because we felt like we needed to get this guy on.

33:13.026 --> 33:17.266
[SPEAKER_00]: Brewers outfield are Alexander Friest, joins the top 100, very back of the list.

33:17.586 --> 33:18.907
[SPEAKER_00]: But um, okay.

33:20.447 --> 33:21.547
[SPEAKER_00]: Let me just lay this out.

33:22.627 --> 33:25.648
[SPEAKER_00]: Are you having a sense of deja vu, listener, or viewer?

33:26.832 --> 33:30.975
[SPEAKER_00]: So the Brewers have this international prospect who's moving really fast.

33:31.775 --> 33:36.118
[SPEAKER_00]: And kind of, you know, the hope was is that, you know, he'd be in the complex this year.

33:36.218 --> 33:44.983
[SPEAKER_00]: But, you know, he just was too good, had to be moved up to low-way, and oh yeah, by the way, early on is low-way, that the reviews are very good about the bat.

33:46.484 --> 33:48.165
[SPEAKER_00]: I could be talking about Jackson Churrio.

33:48.485 --> 33:51.447
[SPEAKER_00]: I could be talking about his use today, and now I'm talking about Alexandria Friace.

33:51.467 --> 33:54.409
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, not saying he's gonna be Churrio, not saying he's gonna be today.

33:57.190 --> 34:12.381
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and you said we liked about on bats we're betting on a bat here and this is a bat that seems like there's a lot of reasons to be very encouraged by what we're seeing so far out of the 100% and it's I think also and I don't know if you feel the same way in being with the pervers gives me even more confidence because

34:21.707 --> 34:36.016
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, if they're pushing a latin signing aggressively, they clearly think that there's something there and I mean, it's hard to argue with the production so far and the HECL this year he hit 4-41-518-678 slog in 32 games.

34:37.196 --> 34:38.217
[SPEAKER_01]: He had 4 points.

34:38.397 --> 34:39.178
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

34:39.758 --> 34:47.443
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll translate that if you're just, you know, somehow stumbled into the 35th minute of a baseball-america prospect podcast and you're not aware.

34:48.223 --> 34:51.805
[SPEAKER_00]: That's a very good batting average is a very good on base in a very good slug.

34:52.085 --> 34:53.987
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it is.

34:54.187 --> 34:55.948
[SPEAKER_00]: He still has enough games to qualify.

34:56.068 --> 35:01.611
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's still a big scale right now in batting average by 69 points.

35:03.932 --> 35:06.894
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, like I know the ACLs, you know, can be pretty offensive.

35:06.974 --> 35:12.958
[SPEAKER_00]: But he's literally, he's, when you say he's running away with it, like,

35:14.534 --> 35:18.935
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he has a chance, like that season doesn't have that much longer to go.

35:18.955 --> 35:20.315
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a two weeks of thing.

35:21.195 --> 35:29.437
[SPEAKER_00]: Two weeks to go, you know, the way this works is is that you get 2.7 plate appearances per game played for your team, right?

35:29.477 --> 35:30.977
[SPEAKER_00]: For a schedule game for your team.

35:31.397 --> 35:40.779
[SPEAKER_00]: So in his case, he won't get to the PA's, but if you don't, and you could take an offer for the number of plate appearances you need to be the batting champ.

35:41.319 --> 35:45.781
[SPEAKER_00]: You still can you could take a lot of O first to get to 69 point.

35:45.861 --> 35:49.262
[SPEAKER_00]: So sorry to interrupt you, but I'm gonna be figuring that while you do this.

35:49.322 --> 35:54.103
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's an interesting one because yeah, I mean, he rightfully promoted.

35:54.123 --> 36:01.906
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, we talked about a guy having 4401 and since it's really small sample up in high A, but he's already had his first or she's me loving but he's already had his first home run.

36:02.246 --> 36:04.107
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think the thing that stood out to me is, you know,

36:05.153 --> 36:08.574
[SPEAKER_01]: The EVs are really, really good for someone hit dayage.

36:08.734 --> 36:22.640
[SPEAKER_01]: We talked about Eric Carman, Theo Dillon, like, for this is not that far behind those guys in terms of EVs, and he's a max of 116.3 this year, which is, if that was a major leaker with that max, that you'd be very happy with that mark.

36:22.720 --> 36:25.601
[SPEAKER_01]: He's 18 years old, and I think that,

36:26.393 --> 36:52.330
[SPEAKER_01]: There's power upside, there's definitely hit tool questions, you know, this is not, he's not the pure hitter that some of the other, I think Bruce prospects, who have been posted aggressively were, but there's just a lot to like, I mean, Josh, I think, I don't know if we posted it, but there'd be a video of a swing in it, you know, it's, I think it's, everything I've seen aesthetically looks fine with it, you know, it's just, he's got to get more reps, he's got to get more exposure to state side pitching, but yeah, I mean, this is the guy that he's built also,

36:55.532 --> 36:56.793
[SPEAKER_01]: Very physical for his age.

36:56.813 --> 36:58.394
[SPEAKER_01]: He's listed at 16, 177.

36:58.414 --> 37:20.151
[SPEAKER_01]: I would guess he's heavier than that right now You know, this is it's good body good athlete He can really hit he's got power like he checks all the boxes you look for in a 18 year old FCL You know upside projection play and I just think it's a matter of you know where the hit tool develops is It's you hear this time and time again, but if it's a 50 hit tool this guy's probably an everyday regular

37:20.731 --> 37:24.799
[SPEAKER_01]: if it's a 40 hit tool, you know, maybe he's a platoon bench bat, if it's a 30, we'll see.

37:24.999 --> 37:29.788
[SPEAKER_01]: So there's a lot of variances, profile, which is wise at the back of 100, but there's also a tumble like here.

37:30.403 --> 37:34.907
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll also add, if he's a 441 hitter like he is in the airs in a complex way, he's a star.

37:35.227 --> 37:35.687
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

37:35.767 --> 37:37.789
[SPEAKER_01]: You got my B. I don't know what the story is.

37:37.889 --> 37:39.010
[SPEAKER_01]: It was guys aren't.

37:39.730 --> 37:45.495
[SPEAKER_00]: So by my, by my math, he needs to get to, he'd need to be at 162 plate appearances to qualify.

37:45.595 --> 37:50.559
[SPEAKER_00]: He has, uh, when I say way less than that, he is 25 short of that.

37:50.899 --> 37:51.099
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

37:51.139 --> 37:54.962
[SPEAKER_00]: Normally, you would say that no one could take an O for 25 and still be a batting champ.

37:55.483 --> 37:56.424
[SPEAKER_00]: But that would get him down to 364.

37:59.626 --> 38:00.447
[SPEAKER_00]: He's invited.

38:00.487 --> 38:08.631
[SPEAKER_00]: It would be awesome to have a guy hit 441 and qualify for a bad in front even in a short season like that would be really, really cool.

38:09.211 --> 38:16.935
[SPEAKER_00]: So again, we had other guys who we could absolutely have put on this hundred.

38:17.516 --> 38:21.298
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say my regret is it went airs because I do think that we should be on here and

38:21.818 --> 38:24.679
[SPEAKER_00]: We're probably, again, we'll get them on at some point I think before too long.

38:25.980 --> 38:35.924
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, we also drop guys off if you want to know more about that, Josh Norris has a piece where he explains why guys rose, why guys fell, why guys went on, why guys went off, some cases where you go off again.

38:35.984 --> 38:37.265
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like why it's same for what off.

38:37.285 --> 38:41.227
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's not because we thought anything other than we wanted to get out, it's going to free us on.

38:41.247 --> 38:43.848
[SPEAKER_00]: We wanted to get, there's a rocky prospect we wanted to get on as well.

38:44.288 --> 38:50.911
[SPEAKER_00]: We want to get some of these guys who are really popping in the complex leagues and we're hearing good, not just, again, let me be clear.

38:52.432 --> 38:55.453
[SPEAKER_00]: I was going to free us down on this 100 because he hit 441 in the ACL.

38:55.613 --> 39:03.816
[SPEAKER_00]: It helped, but it's when that part of the production he's having leads into the calls, leads into the analyzing the data.

39:03.916 --> 39:09.458
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like when you get the scouting feedback, when you get the data and it all comes together,

39:10.280 --> 39:12.582
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, then that's when you have a guy moving on.

39:12.622 --> 39:15.805
[SPEAKER_00]: There are guys who absolutely, again, we've had questions.

39:15.825 --> 39:17.167
[SPEAKER_00]: We've had questions about manual pain.

39:17.187 --> 39:18.308
[SPEAKER_00]: Manual pain is a great year.

39:19.089 --> 39:20.710
[SPEAKER_00]: Statistics aren't enough to get you on the 100.

39:20.770 --> 39:22.992
[SPEAKER_00]: Some of them will say, oh, someone's so deserves me on the 100.

39:23.173 --> 39:24.874
[SPEAKER_00]: I hate to say that it's not a deserved thing.

39:25.455 --> 39:27.857
[SPEAKER_00]: It's got to be something where it's backed by that.

39:28.858 --> 39:37.503
[SPEAKER_00]: quality evaluators see it that the underlying data matches what you're seeing as far as production, all those things fit into it.

39:38.103 --> 39:43.346
[SPEAKER_00]: But man, I'll just say, this is my little ode as I often like to do to be a subscribers.

39:43.826 --> 39:50.009
[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you guys for subscribing because I mean, we hope you enjoy what we're producing, but I will tell you right now, we love producing it.

39:50.229 --> 39:54.191
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, because that top 100 meeting yesterday that we had to kind of get ready for this.

39:54.752 --> 39:55.412
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, a lot of fun.

39:57.493 --> 40:08.125
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, three hours just, you know, talking through guys, had some really spirited discussions, get to here a bunch of different viewpoints, because I think that the fun part about BBA is, you know, you have so many different voices.

40:08.145 --> 40:11.368
[SPEAKER_01]: You have people coming out from different angles, and you have people who are talking to different people.

40:11.428 --> 40:18.837
[SPEAKER_01]: So we really are blanketing, you know, the entire country with who we're talking to, which gives provides a lot of different viewpoints, which I think is extremely valuable in something like this.

40:19.946 --> 40:27.305
[SPEAKER_00]: And the great thing is, is we all of the teams that were doing like we just all did like I think we each did six or seven or something like that top 30s that we updated

40:28.589 --> 40:51.289
[SPEAKER_00]: and even that's a team effort though that's like it's like I'm getting a note from Josh saying hey you should check on this guy for the white sucks and a guy who ended up not making a 30 but it was a great guy to be asking about his right on the edge of the 30 and I could have put him in kind of guy like and you know then I'll hear something like hey did you hear the check on this guy you know and you'll hear something we're not just doing it all in our little silos we're all doing it and saying hey the whole goal here is to really just put together

40:52.190 --> 40:54.014
[SPEAKER_00]: the best and also the fastest.

40:54.114 --> 40:55.878
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say that the two things we want to be.

40:55.938 --> 40:59.606
[SPEAKER_00]: We want to be the best rankings out there of anyone public side.

41:00.067 --> 41:02.433
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean we're not trying to compete with if you tell me that

41:03.048 --> 41:05.829
[SPEAKER_00]: you know, fill in the blank team has better overall.

41:06.609 --> 41:06.869
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay.

41:06.889 --> 41:07.589
[SPEAKER_00]: I would hope so.

41:08.290 --> 41:26.375
[SPEAKER_00]: But, you know, I would say I'd say it at times there may be teams that have really cut back that maybe they don't, but, you know, that's that's bad if it is the case, but on the public side, we want the best rankings, but also we want to have the fastest ranking because if we do think that there is a important value to putting Eric Hartman on our top 100.

41:27.263 --> 41:28.806
[SPEAKER_00]: and running them up early.

41:29.427 --> 41:33.693
[SPEAKER_00]: So baseball America subscribers know about that player before you and who doesn't have baseball mayor.

41:33.834 --> 41:34.475
[SPEAKER_00]: That's important.

41:34.615 --> 41:37.279
[SPEAKER_00]: Josiah Hartchorn who's joined and now is run up the list.

41:37.700 --> 41:40.464
[SPEAKER_00]: Guys like that, Alexander Furious, again, we want you to know

41:41.978 --> 41:45.560
[SPEAKER_00]: Will we every now and then be a little bit too aggressive on a guy?

41:45.640 --> 41:46.781
[SPEAKER_00]: Sure, but we just talked about it.

41:46.821 --> 41:47.982
[SPEAKER_00]: We try to be careful too.

41:48.022 --> 41:52.044
[SPEAKER_00]: Like we absolutely could have put Zerwa on this list a month ago.

41:52.504 --> 41:53.405
[SPEAKER_00]: We wanted to be careful.

41:53.785 --> 41:55.666
[SPEAKER_00]: And now we feel better about doing it.

41:56.267 --> 42:00.669
[SPEAKER_00]: We will at times pull a guy off again, you know, because okay, we were a little bit too hasty.

42:01.150 --> 42:04.752
[SPEAKER_00]: Thankfully, that happens a lot less than guys keep moving up, keep moving up.

42:05.600 --> 42:07.142
[SPEAKER_00]: When guys have injuries, maybe they'll be down.

42:07.162 --> 42:17.351
[SPEAKER_00]: But what we're hoping to see is, as you see the guy come in, establish themselves at either complex or abal, and have, you know, this is what you think this player's going to be.

42:17.472 --> 42:19.994
[SPEAKER_00]: And at that point, there are range of outcomes.

42:20.014 --> 42:22.176
[SPEAKER_00]: I love how you put it with free us, right?

42:22.877 --> 42:26.540
[SPEAKER_00]: The range of outcomes for Alexander free us right now stands to the gambit.

42:27.301 --> 42:27.481
[SPEAKER_00]: And,

42:28.378 --> 42:36.305
[SPEAKER_00]: The flip side of that is, is the range of outcomes like we said for Ralphie Velasquez, still high, but Ralphie Velasquez is a big leagueer.

42:36.345 --> 42:44.531
[SPEAKER_00]: Like there's no scenario where Ralphie Velasquez is just never going to hear that, you know, like get a chance to show what he can do with the big leagues.

42:45.452 --> 42:46.993
[SPEAKER_00]: His range of outcomes has narrowed.

42:47.013 --> 42:55.680
[SPEAKER_00]: Like you don't question defensively, Ralphie Velasquez has a high school graph prospectus like, okay, there's a 1% chance he's a catcher

42:58.160 --> 43:01.722
[SPEAKER_00]: there's a 10% chance he's an outfielder and then we'll see if he can play first base.

43:02.483 --> 43:08.166
[SPEAKER_00]: Now he's a first base, but he's got still a 10% chance play out that in a 0.0% chance play game.

43:08.787 --> 43:10.067
[SPEAKER_00]: But so that's been narrowed.

43:10.428 --> 43:13.309
[SPEAKER_00]: But then if you said, well, what do we know about Ralph and Vlaska's as a hitter?

43:13.890 --> 43:17.112
[SPEAKER_00]: We feel much more confident about that than we did when he was coming out of hunting to beach.

43:17.692 --> 43:19.953
[SPEAKER_00]: That range of outcomes has narrowed in a good way, right?

43:19.993 --> 43:24.997
[SPEAKER_00]: Like when he would come out of hunting beach, you could say he could be anywhere from a 20 hitter to a 70 hitter because

43:25.797 --> 43:38.126
[SPEAKER_00]: Look, Alex Jackson, when he was coming out as a catcher who probably wasn't going to catch, who was a top 10 pick in the draft, he was viewed years ago as like, oh, this guy could be a 70 hitter and he ended up being more like a 20 or a 30 hitter.

43:38.246 --> 43:40.408
[SPEAKER_00]: That can, that's the range for a high school bat.

43:41.088 --> 43:41.648
[SPEAKER_00]: in the draft.

43:42.268 --> 43:49.410
[SPEAKER_00]: At this point Ralph, he's range is probably much more of he could be a 40 hitter to a 60 or maybe a little bit more, but that's narrowed.

43:49.850 --> 43:55.011
[SPEAKER_00]: Alexander Furious is really still is he could be a 20 hitter or he could be a 70 because he's for a lot further away.

43:55.391 --> 43:56.231
[SPEAKER_00]: That's the fun part of this.

43:56.711 --> 43:57.612
[SPEAKER_00]: That's what we love doing this.

43:57.832 --> 44:01.752
[SPEAKER_00]: So that is the baseball America prospect podcast for this week.

44:01.973 --> 44:05.873
[SPEAKER_00]: Our top 100 update, check it out out so much at baseball marry.com.

44:05.913 --> 44:06.273
[SPEAKER_00]: And by the way,

44:08.774 --> 44:09.555
[SPEAKER_00]: The draft is well.

44:09.615 --> 44:12.037
[SPEAKER_00]: We have 500 reports up there for that.

44:12.077 --> 44:30.176
[SPEAKER_00]: We are expanding our senior sign list up to 100 or more, hopefully, before long with reports, and then we have a mock draft this up draft intel it is up and by the way, we will have a staff draft that will roll out and by the way, we will have a YouTube version of the staff draft will go really deep on that one coming up as well.

44:31.232 --> 44:32.915
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's just to get for so much more.

44:33.436 --> 44:35.039
[SPEAKER_00]: We have features, game, rosters coming.

44:35.059 --> 44:37.282
[SPEAKER_00]: We have so much more coming at baseballamerica.com.

44:37.563 --> 44:38.885
[SPEAKER_00]: For Ian, I'm JJ.

44:39.106 --> 44:39.727
[SPEAKER_00]: So long, everybody.