[SPEAKER_00]: Hello everybody JJ Cooper Incundal Baseball America Prospect podcast and your baseball Merck subscriber you already know this but we rolled out our August update of all 30 teams top 30 prospect ranking So we've gone through trade deadlines done you're been a few graduations since we last did this and he started to lie We did have the drafts since then and

[SPEAKER_00]: In a couple of cases, it was kind of nice because now that the trade deadlines past teams, you know, players have moved on, some cases we got to move on guys who were at the back of 30s who got knocked off just because you had to add drafts to ease.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now they get to come back on and all.

[SPEAKER_00]: But Ian, great to see you.

[SPEAKER_00]: We just dive in like we do on these now and I just want to kind of ask you to start with because we just finished this up.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's a lot of work, fun work, a lot of work.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I would just ask you like what, when you were doing this August update, what did you learn?

[SPEAKER_00]: What stood out to you as you were putting together your 30s?

[SPEAKER_01]: I think there's a couple things.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think the first one is that

[SPEAKER_01]: The trade deadline really can show illustrate how deep or not deep a system is when when you're then having to do these updates and I think, you know, the raise or a great example of that for me is they made a bunch of trades they traded up much a really interesting prospects who have moved on to 30s and other systems, but because of how good the raise system is and they're obviously, you know, near the top of our farm system rankings that will be revealed on Wednesday.

[SPEAKER_01]: They didn't really make an impact like you know the guys they they traded some guys that were going to move into the top 30 without a doubt, but even if they were moving into the top 30 with the raise it was still going to be in like that you know around the 20 to 25 range because of how deep the system is, but you look at some of the other systems where those guys went into and they're inside the top 20 even in the top 15 and some and I don't think that's a that's miss or anything that's just the raise that's you know that's why this team.

[SPEAKER_01]: When you talk to scouts from other teams, that's why they send in their best guys and have them get multiple looks because they are such a priority target for so many teams because of how good their system is.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think that really stood out and then the other one is something that you know, it's been interesting throughout the evolution of this system out the year in sea orials because talking to scouts at the beginning of the year, the orials, it was like, you

[SPEAKER_01]: It's not great, you know, there wasn't it was it was you know, okay at the top, but a lot of those guys and you know, I think that's been reflected in our 100, you look at where they were in the pre-season to now they've had a complete turnover of their top 100 prospects and not by graduations guys who were in there to be getting the season are no longer in there and they've been replaced by guys who have been big risers and.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think the continued evolution of that system has been really fascinating and watching obviously they had a huge step on they acquired I think six guys who have slaughtered directly into the top 30 and all of a sudden the system where I was struggling and even talking to scouts It was like there was no consensus for guys after about 15 or so.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was just like I don't know I like this guy and then you talk to another guy He's like, oh no, I hate that guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't want anything to do with him

[SPEAKER_01]: Now it's like I'm cutting off names of guys I really like and I think, you know, yes, it's obviously not where the team wanted to go with the rebuild, but it's, I think they did a very good job at the deadline as we if we talked about in past episodes and really digging into their 30 it's not just that it's they've also had guys take a major step forward as a season is continue.

[SPEAKER_00]: I would put it this way, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Like just give a couple examples for the Orioles and us through a little bit the race to.

[SPEAKER_00]: We've talked, you and I've talked a good bit.

[SPEAKER_00]: I've got to see JT Quinn this year, and we've talked a good bit about JT Quinn.

[SPEAKER_00]: And JT Quinn is the kind of guy who, before all of this was kind of one of, that I would say, the Oral's top pitching prospects.

[SPEAKER_00]: And, but that kind of comes with some caveat, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Because JT Quinn has, he's got really good stuff.

[SPEAKER_00]: It kind of at the end of the day, like if you took 10,

[SPEAKER_00]: world's universes that have a JT Quinn in it for at this point and said, where does he end up?

[SPEAKER_00]: I would say in, you know, if there's like ten paths, eight of them end up with him in the bullpen.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like he's probably a reliever in the day.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's also, but to be clear, he could be a very good reliever.

[SPEAKER_01]: Very good.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is this is a leverage arm if he's in the bullpen.

[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

[SPEAKER_00]: Because he just like, oh, he could get innings for you.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're talking about a guy who could be like impactful in the bullpen.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yes.

[SPEAKER_00]: But that's the kind of guy that you don't necessarily want to be five, six, seven in the list.

[SPEAKER_00]: No, much better when he is right now, which is 15.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then the guy that I think that, you know, there's some angst about is like, we are a lawyer who has had a very good season.

[SPEAKER_00]: And but we've just got to kind of consistent feedback

[SPEAKER_00]: He's solid, not like, there are concerns about him as far as the, when he gets, you know, upper levels, big leagues on all that, that have kind of, that have not necessarily matched what his statistics may look like this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, if that guy's your number five prospect,

[SPEAKER_00]: That's a little bit worrisome again.

[SPEAKER_00]: If that guy's your 15 prospect, which is what he is now on our update for the Oreos, that's really good.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's like a guy who still has a chance to be a big league.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, and that's the thing, and I think it takes some time to get a justice who, when you're not used to having one of the systems near the top, is, because he's 15th in that system, he would be in the top 10 in most systems in baseball.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's just the Oreos system.

[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, five high.

[SPEAKER_00]: Let me just lay this out for someone.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like if you have not paid attention to what we do with BA grades and risk, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: a 55 high.

[SPEAKER_00]: That means he has a decent chance to be in a above average, a 50 is that your average, be a regular, you know, MLB regular.

[SPEAKER_00]: A 55 is above average.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now he's high risk to get to that.

[SPEAKER_00]: There's still some concerns that I'll have to clean up.

[SPEAKER_00]: But a 55 high is the range that puts you in like

[SPEAKER_00]: If he's done top 100 consideration 25 to 150 like he's in that like top 200 in baseball kind of thing and he's 15th in their system.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: I did the Padre's.

[SPEAKER_00]: That guy if he's on the Padre's, he's like four five.

[SPEAKER_00]: You might be one.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, yeah, he's in that range or two, actually, sorry, Ethan Salas.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, but behind Ethan Salas, but in a circle craft and like guys like we'll alloy or we would be like very high up.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: So yes, that's the thing that context does matter on this.

[SPEAKER_00]: but to give it another way, speaking of infielders, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Emilean Petre, Adrienne Santana for the race, both get traded away, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: If you asked Charlie Path, where Emilean Petre goes from where he is right now to an everyday regular for the race, I could try.

[SPEAKER_00]: But there are going to be a lot of hurdles along that way, because they have something, it's like, okay, is that guy going to end up beating out, and we could go down the list of the, you know, the Daniel pierces and the Cooper Flemings, and we could just keep going.

[SPEAKER_00]: Mm-hmm.

[SPEAKER_00]: Is that doesn't mean like, again, if someone may see like, and this is for context matters, it's want to be like, the best traded for a guy wasn't even the raised top 30 in a million P.T.

[SPEAKER_00]: But tell us a little bit why the Met fans should be kind of excited about having a million P train their system.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, P train, for the right, he was 31.

[SPEAKER_01]: He was the last guy, or excuse me, 32, I guess, because Santa Ana was 31 because he was on the list and then moved on.

[SPEAKER_00]: And Brandon Taylor was like 34.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, they literally traded four guys who I had in my just this, 31 to 35 range.

[SPEAKER_01]: Four of those five guys, Jacob, Matt's was the other one.

[SPEAKER_01]: But with P train, he's obviously had a great season.

[SPEAKER_01]: reach into the high miners and it's supreme contact ability, you know, this is a guy 12% in zone, misrate 21% chase rate, which is, you know, that's above average solid.

[SPEAKER_01]: Ex EVs have improved this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's slightly above average now, whereas that's been issue in the past because he's not the biggest guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: you know, he's pretty skinny.

[SPEAKER_01]: But the hard hit rate, that's the thing.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's up to 44% this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: And if you have supreme contact skills and can consistently make hard contact, you're going to get a lot of hits.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that's what he does.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lack of impact here.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that's what limits the ceiling.

[SPEAKER_01]: But he can play deep and he's a okay defender at second base.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, that's second base.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's like maybe a tick above average averageish.

[SPEAKER_01]: Some people think he's more of an out like a left field profile.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I think you probably

[SPEAKER_01]: Exactly.

[SPEAKER_01]: But you have the, you have, you know, plus contactability, defensive versatility in a good way, not when we talk about it in a bad way, where it's like, yeah, you can't play anywhere.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you have to move all over.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is someone who could play probably both.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that's a guy that, you know, in a met system that it's obviously not on the same caliber as the race.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's,

[SPEAKER_01]: He's in the mid teens and it completes completely understandable, you know, that's the type of player that if you're the raise you should be trying to trade because you're repetitive at that position you have the depth and you're keeping your more higher ceiling more impact potential guys like going looking down further someone like Andre me and Tune is who is another riser this month key.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm sure there were teams that I know there were teams asking about him.

[SPEAKER_01]: lot more upside there when someone like P-Tray.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you're the race, that's the kind of guy you want to keep, because realistically, P-Tray is pretty repetitive as you alluded to earlier, what you already have in the system.

[SPEAKER_01]: Intunius has that higher ceiling, that's the guy who has a chance to be in above average regular.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's who you want to keep.

[SPEAKER_01]: So trading someone like Pete Ray and packaging him with, you know, an A and Smith who is more of a high variance who's he made the hot sheet this week.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's at a great week.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's, he's homework and I want to say it's like six of his last eight games or something.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you go back to his time with Tampa.

[SPEAKER_01]: So he, you get, package it with someone like him who's got more variance, you know, great defensive value, hit tool questions.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then Gary Gilhill, who, I think this season's been a little bit of a disappointment.

[SPEAKER_01]: And he's made it to the high minors.

[SPEAKER_01]: There were kind of some pretty big expectations coming into the year, especially coming off of WBC, where he was solid.

[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, that's the kind of package that for the matches extremely appealing, that's a farm system that is not deep that has frankly, you know, they've they've traded a lot away in the past through various deals, you know, for any problem to deal this year obviously didn't work out well things like that they made a lot of two for one three for one trades for them a three for one trade is a huge boost because now they they got potentially three major leaders for for ready for all to back and for the raise you can trade those guys and

[SPEAKER_01]: It doesn't really make it dense on your system.

[SPEAKER_01]: You just backfill that with other interesting guys.

[SPEAKER_01]: They promoted if you guys up and all of it, they don't miss a beat because that's the apparatus they have going there.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so I think it's one of those trades where if you're a metz fan, you can be extremely excited because you got interesting players.

[SPEAKER_01]: You have guys who in the updated metz rankings, I believe Smith and Petra are inside the top 15 and then Gil Hills on the back of the list.

[SPEAKER_01]: for the raise you're not missing a beat like that's you know and you got a picture who it seems like they've already started to make some changes in Friday for all this usage and a much better star yesterday than he had had with the match for the last couple of weeks.

[SPEAKER_00]: So unfortunately like that's the I would say the indictment for the for the match is that

[SPEAKER_00]: You kind of had an expectation that whoever acquired parole to was probably going to get more out of parole to them than the Met's did.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that's in a document because you know, but again, it also couldn't get much worse than it did.

[SPEAKER_00]: And when it's time in New York.

[SPEAKER_00]: But so that's kind of look at a couple of organizations.

[SPEAKER_00]: But what we really want to spend the time doing today on the podcast is we're going to talk about some of the prospects who really

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, we've seen a lot of the big movement has already happened, all the big movers, you know, we're not going to talk about just how hard-shorn today.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're not going to talk about our apartment.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're not going to talk about guys who, like, kind of, the work has already been done.

[SPEAKER_00]: But we are going to talk about a couple of guys, a few guys who have really left up this month in our rankings, and we'll do that right for this quick break.

[SPEAKER_00]: And we're back.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm kind of springing this one on EM, but I realized that when we kind of did our run sheet before this, we're like, oh, you know, like, hey, let's, you know, let's make sure that we cover the guys who kind of really stood out this this month.

[SPEAKER_00]: There was one I left out of that run sheet that we really kind of have to talk about.

[SPEAKER_00]: Probably.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, we would be in for a miss if we did not talk about on how to build that as for the royals because he left on to the hundred and really did and I would say this is again, this is what I love about our team and kind of the process we have again, this is a cumulative project where it's something where we're all working together to try to build this the best way we can.

[SPEAKER_00]: And this was coming from multiple people, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: This was coming from, I'd say the starting point was binbadler who does our international amateur coverage kind of started with, hey, I think we should really look at Annaboga as for the top 100.

[SPEAKER_00]: He was one of the top guys in the class coming in.

[SPEAKER_00]: Looks like performance.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm hearing feedback from down there that he looks great, that he really is a standout prospect.

[SPEAKER_00]: Then you get Josh Norris who went down and was at the DSL all star game and talking people down there when he was in the Dominican midseason, which again, thank you to the B.A.

[SPEAKER_00]: subscribers.

[SPEAKER_00]: We are able to get you this coverage.

[SPEAKER_00]: We are able to send someone to the Dominican DSL, you know, the Dominican Summer League all star game because subscribers allow us to do the coverage we did.

[SPEAKER_00]: And he's like, yes, 100% this is a guy who really does stand out.

[SPEAKER_00]: He fits in that same group with these prospect we've had over the years, where it's like, that's where we solve, you know, get eyes on Hesus Mede, and that's where we see, you know, just, you know, we've seen guys like, like this kind of take this step, you know, that's the step.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then we kind of dive into you and Jeff kind of really dive into the data on it and it's like,

[SPEAKER_00]: everything here, backs up everything that we're just that we're hearing from scouts, that we're hearing from front office officials, it all comes together and this is kind of seems like the next of this group of like these prospects who DSL to prominence in a very short period of time now.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, it's the star trajectory, you know, this is this is the starter kit for what top 10 prospects are made of,

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, it's more than just the numbers because there are a lot of guys hitting in the DSL this year and I think frankly this DSL class looks fantastic like it's not just him there's a lot of really interesting players but we have to point your to your point well because we get this the other way to why is this player not more prominently rang he's hitting 370 in the DSL yeah that's uh The way I'll describe it terrible analogy but okay

[SPEAKER_00]: And when you say that milk is, you know, like they homogenize milk right and that means that they're kind of spreading it so that it spreads evenly right.

[SPEAKER_00]: DSL talent is not even in any way, shape or form.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's got different layers and striations at all.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so you could be one day, as I hit or facing a real big challenge.

[SPEAKER_00]: And the next day, you could be facing guys here like these guys should not be pitching.

[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, they're guys throwing like the mid 80s, like some days.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: But Gomez this year, he's hitting 348 with a 461.0 BP, 591 slug, it's got six home runs, 13 steals.

[SPEAKER_01]: And as you said, like it's just the data is just, there's no holes in his game right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, it's 11% in zone miss 19% chase 46% hard hit rate.

[SPEAKER_01]: His 90% dial EV is just under 105 miles an hour.

[SPEAKER_01]: That would be a great mark for a big leaguer.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's semical scratch.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, you can see that for a teenager in the DSL.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's 17 and he's doing against like, you know, it's he's doing it against every type of pitch, he hit spin, he hits bad fast balls, he hits high velocity like the the bad of ball distribution is really good, you know, it's it's like it he checks every box you look for when you're talking about a DSL prospect and

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that, as you said, that's where the team aspect of this really comes to fruition.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's, you know, then gets us the info early.

[SPEAKER_01]: Josh goes down, we get eyes on them, we get external feedback, we have data analysis, like we're combining everything together, because this is not a jump, we would do like, we didn't take this lightly, this was something we talked about a lot, because it's a pretty big, you're planting a flag if you're moving, I from off the top 100 into the top 50 and one update.

[SPEAKER_01]: But when every, when he, when Gomez is checking every box from every external source from

[SPEAKER_01]: There's some times you just have to make a move like this and I think Gomez is the type of talent that you want to be aggressive with because just look at the draw record of these type of players, you know, Joss Morgan's all us has gone up to low A this year as the 18 year old and it's just already looks far too good for the level.

[SPEAKER_01]: Luis Hernandez, I mean, he's also been up there.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's a year behind and he's holding his own there.

[SPEAKER_01]: case who's modest, you said like the guys, like the go as it would be for you to go back to you for that.

[SPEAKER_01]: Would you it's a prize you would all go as just went directly to low A next year because I know the royals don't seem like a team.

[SPEAKER_01]: I feel like the royals are not that aggressive when it comes to those assignments.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so maybe they keep them out of the Midwest league because of the cold for a couple of years.

[SPEAKER_00]: So you would send him though you would be basically.

[SPEAKER_00]: you could send them to the Carolina League, you know, you could say, hey, we're sending you to, you know, you're gonna be a firefly.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's Columbia, sorry, yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's more likely, though, that you kind of like, you do the extended for a month and then you send them there and like, you kind of slow walk him a month, month and a half, like the complex league starts and then like, if he sets, we've seen this a little bit more now, like that, that you set the complex league,

[SPEAKER_00]: season on fire, and it's like, oh, we can't keep you here.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then that's what happens.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think, you know, which is also kind of also could be described as like the LA Dale Cruz plan or it's like, I think LA Dale Cruz years ago now, but like in the ACL, like he had that brosper, then he goes, then pandemic was tied in this and all, but he goes to the ACL and it's like a couple of weeks as like, oh, you can't keep him here.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then, you know, you just move him on.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's what I say,

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I expect to see him in Wilson.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, that's because, yeah, that was thing about that.

[SPEAKER_01]: The Royale's track record.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're not as aggressive as some of the other teams with their red.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think you'd play the entire ACL season.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's just different organizational philosophies.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, but yeah, I mean, it's just he's a super exciting player.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, this is checks all the boxes he looked for.

[SPEAKER_01]: And it was, it was one.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think it was universal.

[SPEAKER_01]: There was no pushback.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like, you know, this was one.

[SPEAKER_01]: We were, when we said the list out text journal sources, there was no one saying, hey, move that you're a little aggressive.

[SPEAKER_01]: Everyone was like, nope, that that makes sense.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like, this is, I think, around baseball has already seen as one of the, you know, the highest ceiling guys that maybe in the Royal System for sure.

[SPEAKER_00]: I would say this also with that.

[SPEAKER_00]: I would say that, and there's a confidence level now that you could not have a decade ago with this, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Which is a decade ago,

[SPEAKER_00]: You could put a guy in the very back of the 100, and we did a couple of my Vladimir Groud Jr. this guy who I think was on the 100 before he ever played a pro game, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Get that kind of reputation.

[SPEAKER_00]: But even if you had the best scouting information, you could possibly have from the DSL.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you did not have the underlying analytical data to go with it,

[SPEAKER_00]: You could always like there was always the possibility that there were real weaknesses kind of lurking that had not been exposed at that level yet.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, again, doesn't mean it's not a guarantee of future starting the big leagues in all, but you're just starting with a foundation of more comfort here, because you do see about what the guy's context skills and his plate discipline and his power and all these things in a pretty broad-based way that you know, again, this is the thing that goes back a couple years ago,

[SPEAKER_00]: You knew some aspects of him were stand out already, right, like you didn't have to worry about them in a way now and speaking of that, that leads us into our ex guy who was also a big riser, which Ian Samil Sarama with the nationals was another big bump up and that was one.

[SPEAKER_00]: Again, when we talk about this, I would say that kind of explaining the process of how we do this.

[SPEAKER_00]: He was already moving up, but that was like a late, like Jeff Ponce does the national for us, and he was like, got a message right going into the weekend, we're rolling us out on Monday, and it was like, hey, can I really move Toronto up further?

[SPEAKER_00]: I got feedback from out and out of, you know, a non-national sort of thing.

[SPEAKER_00]: That guy is a stud and then you dive into a further and it's like, yes, you should absolutely do that.

[SPEAKER_00]: Why is the meal so wrong with them?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think you you illustrated really well there that that's that's the good part about this process is we have that flexibility that.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're constantly trying to find as much information as possible.

[SPEAKER_01]: And sometimes it comes into late to be representative this update.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, but in this case, we were able to get it in time.

[SPEAKER_01]: And yes, Toronto, he was, Ben actually flagged him too.

[SPEAKER_01]: He was another one that Ben had flagged early because he was one of the nationals.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think he was one of their higher bonus guys this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, but, you know, extremely projectible six foot three outfield there had solid season in the in the DSL as numbers aren't on the same level of someone like Gomez, but when you go to the data again, you know, really low 16% in zone miss 17% chase rate 48% hard hit rate 104, 7 90 if like pretty similar data right there to what we were talking about with Gomez and.

[SPEAKER_01]: When you have that, that blend of data, then you have the external evaluations that are extremely, extremely good.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then even Nationals talking about him too, he checks all the boxes you look for in that teenage, projectable, outfield prospect.

[SPEAKER_01]: And he doesn't have the same type of, I think, buzz as Gomez does right now, but he's someone that, you know, when you look at it, this is the starter kit for a potential top 100 prospect in the future.

[SPEAKER_01]: might take a little longer than someone like Gomez, obviously since he's Gomez already on the list.

[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, it's the type of guy that when you're going through the season that when someone flags him, you really want to keep note, remember that name because, you know, we could be looking at June of next year and it's like, oh, yeah, this guy's in low A and playing really well.

[SPEAKER_01]: And of course, he's on the 100, because I think the nationals are one of the more aggressive orgs as we saw this year with some of their promotions.

[SPEAKER_01]: So,

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, this is the kind of guy that you really want to flag early.

[SPEAKER_01]: You want to have around, you know, that 10 range in the good system to be like, hey, keep an eye on this guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're really high on him and, you know, something to build on next season when he makes the jump state side.

[SPEAKER_00]: along those lines, the one, I think that you probably, like again, doing the Orioles kind of the path that Caden Hunter has taken, I think it's kind of instructive also for like why we do now update this like, because I can have people, you're every now that I have someone's like, you're just, you know, why are you guys updating so often, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: And it's like, again, I don't,

[SPEAKER_00]: I appreciate it if you're if someone's asking that question and it's like, you guys are working too hard.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's like, oh, we love what we do.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, yes, but this is hard work.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I would say like, Hayden Hunter is pretty instructive of why you want to update regularly in season and not just be like, well, here's our list.

[SPEAKER_00]: We'll get back to you in a year for now, because.

[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, Katelyn Hunter is very much been on your radar for the Orioles top 30 all year, but if you're talking about what Katelyn Hunter was an April versus what Katelyn Hunter is an August, it's a big difference in it.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and that's what's funny is we jumped on around of the list right at the beginning of the season off, got really good external feedback, except I was just looking through my scout notes and it was all, yeah, he's a reliever, but he could be a really good reliever.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that was, you know, that was why when we put him on, it was near the back of the list, because this was a guy six-round pick out of USC last year.

[SPEAKER_01]: His velocity is up substantially.

[SPEAKER_01]: That was the first indicator, you know, we saw it in the spring.

[SPEAKER_01]: carried over to the regular season of he's sitting like mid 90s now up to 98 this was a guy who sat in the low 90s last year and again, just a great example of why it's so hard with college pitchers now because so many of them coming to Pearlball and are just are dramatically different pitchers than what you saw as an amateur and why you know and it those initial rankings when we're doing the handbook in the off season are it's just very difficult because you're really just throwing darts because you know you know a lot of these guys are going to be completely different by the time we next get eyes on them.

[SPEAKER_01]: But anyway, he, as early in the season, it was really encouraging feedback that it was like, hey, this guy's a reliever, like no shot at starting.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's, it's really good stuff, but it's just, I don't see a starter at all.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that was multiple, you know, evaluators.

[SPEAKER_01]: Over the summer it started you know over the as the season went on it started to soften a little bit it's like hey you know maybe it's 60 40 now you know still lean reliever but there's a chance to start and as the season has gone on and he's just taken major strides of the secondary stuff to the point where now it's flipped and there's a lot of.

[SPEAKER_01]: The consensus is, hey, this guy has a pretty good chance to start now.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that's what pushed me why we jumped them so high.

[SPEAKER_01]: This one is, you know, there's a very big difference in value is I think you probably covered there's a huge difference in value between a reliever and a starter.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's what teams will hold on the guys as starters for as long as possible, even if it might be to the detriment of their long term like potentials are reliever and.

[SPEAKER_01]: In Hunter's case, this is paid off, you know, this guy who's now he's gotten up to double A and all of a sudden he's throwing six innings and outings when at the start of year, he was going two, three, four innings at most.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's now going six innings and striking out, you know, eight to ten guys per outing.

[SPEAKER_01]: He has four pitches that can miss bats, you know, fastball has an elite riff rate.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's 42% riff rate on the fastball.

[SPEAKER_01]: as of a few, I think before his previous start like that's an insane number when it's sitting at 94 averaging 94.4 miles an hour with you know really good shape it's plus extension high IVB like this is the he checks all the boxes you look for fastball metrically and then you move on to a secondary stuff and it's like oh wait he has.

[SPEAKER_01]: four pitches that can miss bats at around a 40% clip from secondaries, like, and that was the thing coming in here.

[SPEAKER_01]: He was kind of a two-pitch guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: His secondaries have continued to develop, and I think the Warriors has ever ton of credit here, because this is a guy that, as they said, six-brown pick, you know, he was known, obviously, as a USC, you know, big ten pitcher.

[SPEAKER_01]: But he didn't have any stuff like this.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's added Velo.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's refined his secondaries, and now, you know, you've got a guy that

[SPEAKER_01]: who is four pitchmix.

[SPEAKER_01]: I was talking to a scout about him recently.

[SPEAKER_01]: And he said, he, the lowest pitch grade he put was a 50.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was all 60s and 55s.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so you're talking about four potential above average to plus pitches with improving command and control.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's a starting pitcher recipe right there.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think the other encouraging thing is he's held as Velo.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like, we see this a lot with guys that really peak Velo early in the season.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then over the course of the rest of the season, it kind of slowly down ticks.

[SPEAKER_01]: He still do in the same thing he was early in the season.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so, yeah, I mean, he's had an incredible season.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's as we do more reporting, heading into the off season.

[SPEAKER_01]: I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up on a top 100 list when we release that in what I think of January.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, this is a guy who is development has been, he deserves a ton of credit.

[SPEAKER_01]: The Orioles deserve a ton of credit like this is a huge developmental win.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's looking like for the Orioles.

[SPEAKER_00]: I've got a couple more of these we want to dive into a couple more prospects we really kind of stood out in our top 30 updates for August.

[SPEAKER_00]: We'll do that right after this break.

[SPEAKER_00]: So one of the guys I wanted to talk about, system I do, is the art of the LNCF with the Tigers.

[SPEAKER_00]: And the most important thing, you're watching on YouTube, that graphic where it says Ketcher.

[SPEAKER_00]: Because that was reason, like, it was that it's a 40-man roster, kind of a great story.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like a guy who's

[SPEAKER_00]: life or who kind of really had a breakout season last year and added the 40 men roster, but even then like kind of put them on the very back of the 30 and it was really came down to the feedback was, you know, a lot of questions about this guy going to be able to catch.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, yeah, you like the bat, but is he going to be able to catch?

[SPEAKER_00]: And if he's not, he's kind of a first basement slash third catcher and to go back to what you just said about starters and relievers,

[SPEAKER_00]: You better be great, if you're that.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's the kind of guy who it's like, he played for five years in the big leagues.

[SPEAKER_00]: 150, 200 went up and down a lot.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, he had a one more season where he kind of ran into a few homerunds one year or whatever.

[SPEAKER_00]: Those kind of guys.

[SPEAKER_00]: And to Valencia's credit, and I want to say, like this is like one where we always say that evaluating catcher, especially college amateur, but even in the minors is hard.

[SPEAKER_00]: The Tigers just gave him a very, very big vote of confidence, which is, I know Jake Rogers has been moved twice in since then because he was defaed by the Tigers and then he went to the Orioles and then the Orioles were like, oh, if you need Adly Rushman's Cady because I know Adly's still hurt, so you could have Jake Rogers now.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so, but they defaed Jake Rogers.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that meant that, and I don't know, Jake Rogers not having a great year offense with that, that's great to matter though.

[SPEAKER_00]: Great defender.

[SPEAKER_00]: And it really is kind of a vote of confidence that they're like Edward Evelyncia can be our backup catcher now, they've got Dylan Dingler.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is not a job share.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is not one real like one A and one B.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is one and two.

[SPEAKER_00]: But to Valencia's credit,

[SPEAKER_00]: If you had said at this time last year, hey, Jake Rogers is healthy.

[SPEAKER_00]: And Eduardo Valencia is the Tiger's backup catcher.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that would have been a really like shocking statement to make.

[SPEAKER_00]: And here he is.

[SPEAKER_00]: And again, I don't want to make it sound like he moved up.

[SPEAKER_00]: So he moved up, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: He moved up into the mid-peens.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't want to make it sound like this guy's number four on the Tiger's system now.

[SPEAKER_00]: The difference between this guy is a great story, as a guy who's made his major league debut, and he can be a third catcher slash first base and slash D-8 sometime.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's one kind of career, if he can show that he is a legitimate backup catcher, who can, with the better bat than most backup catcher, let's be honest.

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, that's the kind of guy who we could look around and there are there is plenty of track record here like.

[SPEAKER_00]: If someone wants to say, well, you missed on that BA and I'll raise my hands.

[SPEAKER_00]: I do the Tiger's List is for you.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, you can.

[SPEAKER_00]: I will also point out like the story of right in Val's way, and the big leagues right now with the blue jays, which is like.

[SPEAKER_00]: Catchers are developed.

[SPEAKER_00]: We like to say catching development is not linear.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's something where a lot of times it can be something where it doesn't look like it's clicking it other look like it's clicking it doesn't look like it's clicking and then all a subnet does the game slows down they're able to handle the workload and then all the sudden you've got a guy who takes this massively forward I think that's kind of what we've seen here if I'd rather the Lensia and that kind of gives him a chance to go from an up and down guy who spends a lot of time in AAA and gets a lot of you don't like brief times in the big leagues to a guy who.

[SPEAKER_00]: couldn't end up having a pretty lengthy, big league career.

[SPEAKER_00]: So Kudos to him, because his defense has gotten better, Ian, we're going to flip this around now, because you do the twins.

[SPEAKER_00]: We've talked about Mary Custon on the podcast before, but we've never had it out about Mary Custon's defense.

[SPEAKER_00]: How surprised are you?

[SPEAKER_00]: And the reason he's rising up is, is he just keeps hitting.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's it's really impressive, you know, he's gone up to double a and he's hitting 304 387 507 and 36 games.

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.

[SPEAKER_01]: So now five, seven.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: No.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's a Texas League.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, Texas League.

[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, I mean, I, you know, it's funny because I, I saw Houston this spring for the first time in person and it's an interesting swing.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's, it's not a, I don't think it's one, you know, Thomas Manzki's teaching in terms of swing mechanics, but it works for him.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that was the thing, you know, seeing him for a long extended period.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was just, he just puts the ball in play.

[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, what, that can go a long way if you have good back control, which he does.

[SPEAKER_01]: And it's carried over to the

[SPEAKER_00]: because it's also can go a long way to his credit.

[SPEAKER_00]: I feel like he's a guy who, if he was trying to do more, he would result in less.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, 100%.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think he's a great example of, yeah, it's that trade-off of, hey, maybe I could hit a few more home runs or hit them all a little harder, but that's not what's best for me.

[SPEAKER_01]: And the flip side of that is someone like Frank Minari, who has sacrificed contact to get some more impact in a good way.

[SPEAKER_01]: With Houston, that's just not him.

[SPEAKER_01]: This guy, you look at his EVs, 90th percentile eggs of Los Angeles 101.3 miles an hour.

[SPEAKER_01]: fringy below average for someone his age, you know, doesn't stand out at all.

[SPEAKER_01]: But he's making consistent hard contact.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's a ton of line drives.

[SPEAKER_01]: And he just stays within himself.

[SPEAKER_01]: He doesn't expand the zone.

[SPEAKER_01]: He makes good swing decisions.

[SPEAKER_01]: He makes contact on pitches in the zone.

[SPEAKER_01]: He has good pitch recognition skills.

[SPEAKER_01]: And yeah, I mean, I think, you know, we talked about a lot in the offseason with him because the defense is that good.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is a guy's potential, you know, 65, 70 shortstop.

[SPEAKER_01]: We've seen that guy Taylor Walls is obviously the best example.

[SPEAKER_01]: You don't have to hit really at all if you can do that.

[SPEAKER_01]: Houston's now gone to someone who I don't think he's going to hit for much power, like Ed's currently constituted.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, maybe it's five home runs, eight home runs a season.

[SPEAKER_01]: But now he's gone from a guy who was like, can he hit 232?

[SPEAKER_01]: Hey, he might be a 260 hiter now.

[SPEAKER_01]: And if he's a 260 hiter with eight home runs with his defense, he's going to be like a four-war player every season.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that's why, you know, there was a ton of skepticism with him at the play coming into the season.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was, I'm talking to scout who were in spring training.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was like, yeah, I love the glove, but I don't know about this swing.

[SPEAKER_01]: Because, you know, a lot of the pros scout systems were their first exposure to him, because they're not covering George, excuse me, he was at Wake Forest, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: Really?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, they're not covering Wake Forest.

[SPEAKER_01]: So this was their first exposure and it's like, I don't know about this playing and it's just if it if it continues to work, there's no reason to change it and yeah, it's continued to work, you know, well, he's making consistent hard contact and yeah, he's just exceeded all expectations I had at the plate, I'll be honest, you know, I can admit when I'm wrong and with him at the plate, I definitely was skeptical and he's, you know, exceeded all my expectations so far this season.

[SPEAKER_00]: I will throw out this also made mean that he's just a 230 hitter and that still would be like probably like Taylor walls is an instruct example this to me like now Taylor walls in his first full season like it was a different time right like it was a different time so.

[SPEAKER_00]: They moved players slower back then.

[SPEAKER_00]: But Taylor Walls did hit 304 393 428 for low-way bowling green in 2018.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, Narek Houston's moved faster, high-a double-a.

[SPEAKER_00]: But, and then the next year, Walls hit 273 3452 between high-a and double-a.

[SPEAKER_00]: Then we had the pandemic, and then he hit 247 387 444 and triple-a.

[SPEAKER_00]: Next, then he's up in the big leagues, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: So what I would just say about that is it's like,

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, if you looked at Taylor Walls' track record as a hitter, when he was in the minors, and you said, oh, he's going to end up being a 198, 289, 294 career major league hitter, you'd be like, that seems light considering what he's done.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, yeah, maybe you have a guy like this, like, even if you say, like, oh, the big leagues ends up being very hard for a player like this,

[SPEAKER_00]: It still goes to your point, though, which is if you say I'm going to take 60 points off of everything he's doing or 70 points.

[SPEAKER_00]: Again, 507, I think if he slug 435, I think that would be a remarkable development.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think he looks like 400 of mine.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yes.

[SPEAKER_00]: But what you're saying though is really kind of true, which is, okay, when you look at this and you look at the twins long term,

[SPEAKER_00]: Call Pepper.

[SPEAKER_00]: Again, I do think that this is a guy who slides call Pepper probably over the second or over the, you know, you can construct your in field, where you have multiple guys who can hit better than Barrick Houston, but Barrick Houston providing kind of that run prevention value at short stop and not being a zero at the plate.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's something beyond what I think was the expectations potentially for him coming out of college.

[SPEAKER_00]: It is a really positive development.

[SPEAKER_00]: And hey, there's also the possibility.

[SPEAKER_00]: Again, I use Taylor also an example because he is kind of the archetype of this guy right now.

[SPEAKER_00]: But you do also see you see over there, over the years, examples of guys, it's almost a little bit like

[SPEAKER_00]: If you're able to do this for the longest for the long run to keep you in the big leagues, eventually the big league game even slows down a little bit for you as a hitter.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I mean, auto Lopez this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's the best example.

[SPEAKER_01]: Those guys defa twice, but it could always play defense and he's now leading the national league in headache.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, it's the deep, you know, I like to think about a defense will get you to the big leagues and can keep you there for a while, but the offense is what keeps you as a starter.

[SPEAKER_01]: And like that's, you know, that's the thing with Houston is the offense is now reach that point where I think you're comfortable projecting him as an everyday guy, which is why he moved into the top 100 and as you said, like the defense is superior to co-piper, he just came up to the big leagues co-pipers made major strides there defensively too, but.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, it's easy to envision the twins having a very exciting young core with Houston cold pepper and then the outfield.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's obviously Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez, like it's pretty exciting team, especially for an offense that somehow is leading the American League of runs this year, which is an amazing and shocking development.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, but like kind of your point that's like, you know, and again, you want to have a little depth with that team.

[SPEAKER_00]: You're going to need a little depth because.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you said, hi, well, you know, if we get 150 games out of Walker Jenkins and Amanda Rodriguez watch out, and you're like, well, they haven't combined to do that in pretty much any season so far.

[SPEAKER_00]: So you kind of won't want to go that far with it.

[SPEAKER_00]: But yes, that is a very, and again, intriguing.

[SPEAKER_00]: because there are a team that actually bought at the deadline, again, didn't sell a whole lot, you know, didn't spin off any of their top level prospects.

[SPEAKER_00]: And coming in the year, I would not have put Maricustin in that group.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now he is.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that you have to say that he has moved his way into kind of that top tier of prospect for them, you know, and I would say, you know, Riley Quick is, you know, also in that, like we don't want to forget about him.

[SPEAKER_00]: I do feel like, again, to kind of, to wrap up on them, the other thing that just did stand out with them, though, is it's like, I do feel like that that's in the work where you have a very, like, the top seven, there's not hard to kind of line up top seven or eight is it.

[SPEAKER_01]: No, it's it's of, I think it, you could even extend it a little bit.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that the top 10.

[SPEAKER_01]: is pretty consistent because it was the issue when working through their lists so many of their pictures are her right now, you know, looking down, Charlie Soto is barely pitched to see her James L. Winger as that surgery now.

[SPEAKER_01]: Jose Oliveira has been hurt like they just had to have had a ton of injuries and it's been very difficult like to rank once you got outside the top 10, which the top 10 was extremely straightforward.

[SPEAKER_01]: Everyone you talk to, it's the same thing.

[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, once you get outside of it, it gets a little murky because just so many of the guys

[SPEAKER_00]: But that is today's baseball America prospect podcasts as we look at some of the prospects that have caught our eye that moved up in our August top 30 update, by the way, if you haven't checked it out, do go over a baseball america calm because we have not only do we have full top 30s for all three organizations updated as a logist, but on top of that.

[SPEAKER_00]: if you don't want to go through all 30 orgs, which why wouldn't you?

[SPEAKER_00]: It's a lot of fun to click through this.

[SPEAKER_00]: But if you don't, we did pull out, like here are all the risers and why they're rising.

[SPEAKER_00]: We did pull out another list that put together everyone who joined in where they rank for all 30 organizations.

[SPEAKER_00]: So if you just want to know like, okay, I know that if I'm a Met Span and I know that they added a lot of guys, where did all those guys slot?

[SPEAKER_00]: Here you go.

[SPEAKER_00]: But also we have so much more than that, you know, over that as well.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you haven't subscribed yet, please do.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, I think you will really enjoy it.

[SPEAKER_00]: But on top of that, if you're here on the YouTube channel or on the podcast feed and somehow saw this podcast, but are not subscribed either way.

[SPEAKER_00]: Please subscribe because it not only will make sure that you get to see this here this every week, but it also makes sure that other people can see it as well as star of visibility.

[SPEAKER_00]: That is the Baseball American podcast for Ian.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm JJ.

[SPEAKER_00]: So long, everybody.