[SPEAKER_03]: This is Invest Talk, from KPP Financial, helping investors make sense of the markets one day at a time.

[SPEAKER_03]: Here's your host, Justin Klein.

[SPEAKER_00]: Good afternoon, fellow investors, and welcome back to Invest Talk.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is our Friday, August 14th, 2026 edition.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I'll talk here in, look at a beach, hopefully everyone's staying cool, and the market's hot as well continues to power ahead, despite the headlines, although today was not exactly amazing day, but we close the week.

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, we limped into the week and show we said, but we'll look at those numbers and the headlines much later in the show.

[SPEAKER_00]: I want to set the table here and invite you, invite you to give me a call, whatever's on your mind, money related, we are here to help you navigate these challenging times.

[SPEAKER_00]: By answering your finance and investment questions, bring you data, bring you perspective, I've been doing this for over 25 years.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I've seen it all.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, I'm here for whatever question you throw at me.

[SPEAKER_00]: Nothing's too simple, nothing's too complex, so I encourage you to reach out as always a today, 99 chart is the number.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, just a bit, we'll talk about today's mark performance and run down the show topics throughout the hour, but as usual, we'll tackle this first call like question now.

[SPEAKER_07]: You're listening to your podcast.

[SPEAKER_07]: I'm a very small time investment, type of person.

[SPEAKER_07]: I do have a whirlwind case pretty healthy, but on the side I try to do a little bit of my own.

[SPEAKER_07]: glimpse group, stock ticker, symbol, GGRP, audio thoughts on that, especially since it's an AI type of company.

[SPEAKER_07]: Thank you.

[SPEAKER_00]: All right.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is glimpse group, trading for less than $1 per share.

[SPEAKER_00]: So the first thing you have to say is, why is it trading for a dollar per share?

[SPEAKER_00]: Why is it a penny stock?

[SPEAKER_00]: It's hard to find penny stock.

[SPEAKER_00]: When I was in my younger days, there were penny stocks all over under $5.

[SPEAKER_00]: But now you either are lifted up or you're out.

[SPEAKER_00]: And this is the name that has negative $3.6 million for cash flow.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's market cap is about $19 million.

[SPEAKER_00]: So this is not a small cap, this is a micro cap.

[SPEAKER_00]: They do have cash in their balance sheet.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's the positive they'll have a ton of debt.

[SPEAKER_00]: But if you're burning cash, they're about to burn through that cash.

[SPEAKER_00]: And in about a year, from where they're at now, what are they doing?

[SPEAKER_00]: They're probably issuing shares, let's see.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it's your shares continue to go up and to the right.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now the positive would be earnings expectations for this year and next year or zero.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now I don't know if that's because there's not an estimate or because it's going to be break even.

[SPEAKER_00]: My guess is there's not really an estimate for a name this low.

[SPEAKER_00]: but they've always lost money.

[SPEAKER_00]: So this is all a story stock.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is not an investment, and it may be around.

[SPEAKER_00]: It looks like they deal virtual reality, augmented reality, spatial computing, software services, et cetera.

[SPEAKER_00]: That all sounds great, but last quarter, revenues down 54%.

[SPEAKER_00]: So where's the growth here?

[SPEAKER_00]: This is not an investment.

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, do you want to stay far or far away, your new investor or new listener to the show?

[SPEAKER_00]: And while the technical is on this, the short term look okay.

[SPEAKER_00]: Actually look pretty good.

[SPEAKER_00]: So if you want it, it's like a trade maybe, but this is not a long term investment because they have not shown any ability to sustain growth, profitability, et cetera, into the future.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now answer that.

[SPEAKER_00]: Luke talked about the U.S. housing market, how homes selling blow asking price in 38 major cities.

[SPEAKER_00]: So homes are selling below asking price in 38 major cities.

[SPEAKER_00]: So we unpacked that story, 38 of the 50 biggest U.S. cities.

[SPEAKER_00]: And we answer, he answer questions about pulse biosciences, and if you happen to miss it, go check it out.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's what you get every show to follow and best talk wherever you get your podcasts.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, we have a lot of ground to cover over the next 45 minutes or so, and time for meeting will get to all of it, and our main focus point today concerns this story.

[SPEAKER_00]: Soft, jobs report, and the dollar's new direction, what it means for investors.

[SPEAKER_00]: A week and an expected U.S. jobs report sent the dollar sliding and pushing.

[SPEAKER_00]: and push back market expectations for those survey pipes, so explore this data what it means for different asset classes in the broader economy.

[SPEAKER_00]: We have other topics in the docket as well.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think this is a good one.

[SPEAKER_00]: How much money does it take to be happy?

[SPEAKER_00]: Does money buy happiness?

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, I think we all can agree it does to a point, but what point is that?

[SPEAKER_00]: We'll take that into that a little bit more.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then El Nino is here, what impact could that have on the broader economy?

[SPEAKER_00]: So we'll look at that.

[SPEAKER_00]: We also have voice-mate questions.

[SPEAKER_00]: One is on market rotation and Otis Worldwide, OTS, and also have some questions that came in via the comments section on the invest.utube channel.

[SPEAKER_00]: As well, but we're ready for your calls.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're gonna go into a quick break because you're me calling any time.

[SPEAKER_00]: We'll leave your question on the invest.voyspank and if you're listening to our live stream

[SPEAKER_00]: You can call right now at 8-899 chart.

[SPEAKER_00]: Up next, I'll comment on today's market activity.

[SPEAKER_03]: In the early days, in Vestock was Jerry Klein and Steve Peasley.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now the torch has been passed, and a new generation of hosts is on the job, Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero.

[SPEAKER_03]: So when you've got finance and investment questions, don't forget to call in Vestock.

[SPEAKER_03]: 88899, Chuck.

[SPEAKER_00]: Let's take a look at the market today.

[SPEAKER_00]: It was a down day as we closed the week.

[SPEAKER_00]: You had the Dow down 20 basis points, S&P, a little bit of that 17 basis points, NASDAQ down a little more than a quarter percent.

[SPEAKER_00]: But the Russell 2000, a continuation of what have been saying, money is flowing out of the large gaps into the mid and small gaps.

[SPEAKER_00]: So you see that today, S&P that the Russell 2000

[SPEAKER_00]: by about 2-3rds of 1%, that's in one day, it's not that crazy, but clearly this trend is not stopping.

[SPEAKER_00]: You had treasuries where a bit weaker across the curve with yields up to to four basis points.

[SPEAKER_00]: So you can continue to see the long end of the curve blow out this is an issue.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is one of the biggest risks to markets in the medium term.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now when does the market care about it?

[SPEAKER_00]: Tell anyone's guys, but the 10 year what are we getting up to?

[SPEAKER_00]: We're approaching 5%, that will be an issue.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'll find it a little bit later, but my point is yields continue to go up.

[SPEAKER_00]: The dollar next down 0.3% on the day despite yields higher, gold finish up 0.4% silver up 0.2, Bitcoin down 0.8 continuation by the design gold and silver harder assets outperforming.

[SPEAKER_00]: These softer assets like Bitcoin, crude is up 1.4% in choppy trading.

[SPEAKER_00]: You had a kind of a mixed bag in the tech space, names like AMD, up six and a half percent, my crown up 2.3.

[SPEAKER_00]: Across the max seven is pretty neutral.

[SPEAKER_00]: NVIDIA Apple, Google, Microsoft, barely budged.

[SPEAKER_00]: Tesla up 68 basis points, metadown, 86 basis points.

[SPEAKER_00]: So these can drop there.

[SPEAKER_00]: Amazon down about 1% the biggest mover in the max seven.

[SPEAKER_00]: But you did have some nice gains in energy space, but oil up as you expect is in the finance space.

[SPEAKER_00]: And this is something you have to pay attention to.

[SPEAKER_00]: You have to recognize, you'll always say, is that financials are still doing okay?

[SPEAKER_00]: Despite higher interest rates, despite a labor market we've talked about in a little bit relatively weak.

[SPEAKER_00]: Financials are not.

[SPEAKER_00]: screaming, anything, you know, that usually when the the mark the economy is rolling over, financials are telling you.

[SPEAKER_00]: Right now, that's not happening.

[SPEAKER_00]: So something to continue to watch.

[SPEAKER_00]: Healthcare did fairly well today.

[SPEAKER_00]: Kind of the mixed back as we closed the weekend, and we had into OpX Week next week.

[SPEAKER_00]: What else do we get?

[SPEAKER_00]: We had CPI, increased point two

[SPEAKER_00]: That was kind of the big news this week, just to kind of sum up the week.

[SPEAKER_00]: But Fridays usually not a lot of economic news, but not shocking to see kind of the choppy mixed market today.

[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, yeah, 10 year, 4.69%.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think maybe when it gets to 5%, that's when problems arise.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, from time to time, we see questions via webform from investtalk.com.

[SPEAKER_00]: Here's when they came in earlier.

[SPEAKER_00]: Alex from Texas is howdy it's Alex from Texas and I quote and my question is regarding Dr.

[SPEAKER_00]: Cure Sucktaker rail R-A-I-L.

[SPEAKER_00]: I recently bought a small position in it just to keep an eye on it and like your opinion on it is worth adding to thank y'all invaluable service.

[UNKNOWN]: Interesting.

[SPEAKER_00]: aren't proving pretty dramatically.

[SPEAKER_00]: They were losing money, pre-covid $5.19, lost money throughout COVID.

[SPEAKER_00]: But then, but it started to improve.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm actually trying to profit for the first time in 2024, a 15 cents a share of 50 cents a share last year, 41 cents a share expected this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: So a little bit of a drop, but then earnings are expected to go to a dollar six next year.

[SPEAKER_00]: So based on that dollar six, if that actually comes to fruition,

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that would be a cheap stock, because it's trading at $7.32.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm looking at this balance sheet.

[SPEAKER_00]: I want to see that after years of burning capital, are they too levered?

[SPEAKER_00]: They do have a decent amount of debt, nearly a hundred million dollars in that debt, and it's $230 million dollar.

[SPEAKER_00]: Market cap.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's a bit, that's kind of high for me.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now they have started to pay that down recently, their free cash flow is at about 19 million,

[SPEAKER_00]: That's about a 10% free cashily yield pretty good.

[SPEAKER_00]: No dividend.

[SPEAKER_00]: Are they buying back shares?

[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, there's just a bunch of new shares.

[SPEAKER_00]: Don't like that.

[SPEAKER_00]: From 19 million shares that's standing at 32.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now was that an acquisition?

[SPEAKER_00]: I wonder that.

[SPEAKER_00]: That'd be a big question for me.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now it looks cheap based on that forward looking earning earnings number of dollar six.

[SPEAKER_00]: The problem is, is that cash flow situation, or is it sorry, the debt situation, the number shares outstanding that they, that they just issued, try to look at the chart, it's being slow for me.

[SPEAKER_00]: But overall, the chart looks like a losing momentum.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's such a small name.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm kind of, it's kind of wishy-washy.

[SPEAKER_00]: The technicals are met, especially after the recent drop in March at a high about 14.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now it's down to seven.

[SPEAKER_00]: So it's down 50% since that high and it doesn't seem like it wants to get off the map.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm going to pass on it.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's too small.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't like the balance sheet and despite what looks like cheap forward looking earnings technicals are not lining up.

[SPEAKER_00]: Let's squeeze in one quick question now.

[SPEAKER_00]: VLTO, Viralto, $24 billion market cap.

[SPEAKER_00]: Really deal.

[SPEAKER_00]: Go up water treatment products, proprietary precision instrument, Tation, software, printing packaging.

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay.

[SPEAKER_00]: What I like about it is earnings, since probably 2019 they didn't like it, maybe they weren't public, I'm not sure.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, they weren't.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, they weren't public.

[SPEAKER_00]: So the first thing is reports 2020, those $2.99, and they pretty much have increased earnings consistently a little dip in 2022 and 23.

[SPEAKER_00]: with then powered back higher the last couple of years so to make it all the time high in earnings of $4.77.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I like these industrial type names.

[SPEAKER_00]: Let me look at its balance sheets.

[SPEAKER_00]: A little bit of dividend that's fine, good balance sheet, return equity 33 percent, free cash flow of a billion dollars on a $23 billion mark.

[SPEAKER_00]: The chart is not that exciting, it's that terrible, it's not exciting.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I do like the business.

[SPEAKER_00]: I just need those tackles to firm up a little bit.

[SPEAKER_00]: If it can, if it can get back above a hundred, I would probably be a buyer because then I think the tenements would be have have repaired and it would be worth a buy.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're getting there though, it's right up against those systems.

[SPEAKER_00]: There are 24 seven and best talk voice bank never closes so you can leave your finance and investment question any time on 8889 chart and work continues after this break.

[SPEAKER_03]: The weekend is here or almost here but you've got finance and investment questions so step up and call in.

[SPEAKER_03]: Invest talk 88899 chart.

[SPEAKER_06]: Hello in this talk.

[SPEAKER_06]: This is Janik from Denmark.

[SPEAKER_06]: I have a question about long-term holds versus taking profits or cutting your losses rotating your money around as the stock market it was because um if I look back there for five years, I mean I haven't beat the market.

[SPEAKER_06]: My question is when you advise that you should follow the rotations of the market.

[SPEAKER_06]: It means that you have to buy and serve frequently

[SPEAKER_06]: like for a really long term, five, 10 years.

[SPEAKER_06]: If you keep following the rotations of the market, and you can still hold some stocks like the goblins of what happens.

[SPEAKER_06]: That's the enigma I'm puzzling with because I'm considering just going into index ones because I can see a managed my girlfriends' pensions account that really, it's really hard to beat the market, isn't it?

[SPEAKER_06]: Do you have any advice on that?

[SPEAKER_06]: Be very glad.

[SPEAKER_06]: Thank you very much.

[SPEAKER_06]: Please don't take Greenland, okay?

[SPEAKER_06]: Bye-bye, thanks.

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, thank you for the call.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, the first, the answer your question basically is, it is challenging to be the market, but it's not definitely impossible, but you have to have a process.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's the issue.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's the problem most average investors struggle with.

[SPEAKER_00]: is that markets rotate, certain companies overweight and underweight or, sorry, over outperforming underperforming different market regimes, and they don't have any way to identify those market regimes.

[SPEAKER_00]: What are you in?

[SPEAKER_00]: What should what sector should you

[SPEAKER_00]: to every sector at any given time.

[SPEAKER_00]: You should pretty much have exposure to every sector at any given time.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now it might be a small percentage of might be underweight, might be one name, but ideally it's the best to breed within that particular sector.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so it allows you core holdings in every sector because you're always holding some.

[SPEAKER_00]: You might go into a recessionary environment

[SPEAKER_00]: You're only just all the one utility, but now, because you want protection, money is flowing into utilities and you want to add a couple more, and that's a lesson I've been talking about for the last couple of weeks, which is, well, money flows out of one sector

[SPEAKER_00]: Money was flying out of healthcare earlier in the year in the tech, and then that actually started to reverse.

[SPEAKER_00]: So it's about having a process to identify that.

[SPEAKER_00]: What we use is it's actually pioneered by Ray Gallio, which is the grid, the quadrant set up, which is what's going on with growth in the economy is accelerating decelerating.

[SPEAKER_00]: What's going on with inflation is accelerating or decelerating.

[SPEAKER_00]: And based on that, you're in different quadrants, and that means certain asset classes or in sectors tend outperform.

[SPEAKER_00]: So we do it.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's not that complicated, it does take some work, it does take some monitoring, it does take some tools, but that's the macro analysis.

[SPEAKER_00]: Then we use our ability to find the best opportunities in the sector,

[SPEAKER_00]: To hold those names that are likely to outperform because of the quality of their business, valuation, growth, leadership, etc.

[SPEAKER_00]: So you should always have those core holdings, but you can trim and rotate your portfolio based on the macro setup.

[SPEAKER_00]: Let's keep things moving and drop in another fresh listener question now.

[SPEAKER_08]: I'm calling in about VF, Corp.

[SPEAKER_08]: The symbol is VFC.

[SPEAKER_08]: You've talked about it many times in the past.

[SPEAKER_08]: Your thoughts about it.

[SPEAKER_08]: And if I should invest more money into the stock, be looking forward for your answer.

[SPEAKER_00]: Looking at VF Corp.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is the lifestyle brand that owns, they own vans, they own jansport, they own, what are all their brands?

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, vans, North Face, Timberland, jansport, smart wool, east pack, et cetera.

[SPEAKER_00]: So good brands.

[SPEAKER_00]: Problem is, their business has been struggling for some time.

[SPEAKER_00]: My earnings were two, 10 in 2022.

[SPEAKER_00]: They took on a lot of debt, earnings decline, but it's on the rise once again.

[SPEAKER_00]: Expect to be up 30% this year, 24% next year.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, $2.35.

[SPEAKER_00]: If they can achieve that, it's cheap.

[SPEAKER_00]: But they do have a lot of debt.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's $6 billion mark a cap, about $4 billion in debt.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so that 600 million in your free cash flow is going towards right sizing their balance sheet.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I think over the short term, that's a challenge because I would like them to be buying back stock instead of paying down debt.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then a good job of paying down the debt going from a high of $7.8 million shares outstanding, or sorry, billion dollars in debt now to $4.6.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I think you're getting there, the technicals are still pretty poor, but if you have a long term viewpoint that are a long term hold mentality, I think it would be a good buy at this level.

[SPEAKER_00]: The next investor, we look into the story, Global Shipping, under siege how horror moves the Black Sea and the Red Sea, threatened to hit your investments.

[SPEAKER_00]: That story is for Monday, but for now, great take your calls at 8-8-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_00]: At KPP Financial, accountability means more than advice.

[SPEAKER_00]: It means we invest alongside you through our parallel investing approach, when we recommend an investment for clients, one or more KPP principles invest their own capital at the same time, same day, same price, same percentage.

[SPEAKER_00]: If your portfolio moves, ours does too, that is alignment, that is transparency, that is the KPP difference.

[SPEAKER_00]: Visit www.investhawk.com to get your free portfolio review.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's official.

[SPEAKER_03]: Total lifetime downloads for the Invest Talk podcast are now more than 63 million.

[SPEAKER_03]: Justin Klein is here now taking your calls live.

[SPEAKER_03]: Invest Talk 88899 chart.

[SPEAKER_00]: Let's go talk about our main focus point on the day, and that is the soft labor report.

[SPEAKER_00]: So let's review that and what that might mean for the broader, that policy, the broader market, the broader economy.

[SPEAKER_00]: So employers added jobs last month, the slowest pace in over a year.

[SPEAKER_00]: Only 23,000, actually there was down 23,000 jobs, excuse me, the average now for the first three, the last three months is at 20,000 jobs a month.

[SPEAKER_00]: It sounds very low, and it is.

[SPEAKER_00]: But private employers have added about 30,000 jobs in July.

[SPEAKER_00]: much better than the headline, the client.

[SPEAKER_00]: That means that a lot of the decline in jobs was from government cutting local workforce education, et cetera, that was the big drawdown.

[SPEAKER_00]: It was the local government education layouts.

[SPEAKER_00]: Labor force participation is left to 61.4, fewer people entered or remained in the workforce.

[SPEAKER_00]: Employers are still adding to construction jobs, healthcare, manufacturing, but leisure hospitality, government retail trade and financial activities were cut, so kind of a mixed bag there.

[SPEAKER_00]: But consumer spending, which is two-thirds of the economy, remains fairly robust, Johnson's red book, Weekly Same Source Sales, was 8.7 year-over-year, 8.7% year-over-year increase, ending August 1st with pretty up-to-date data.

[SPEAKER_00]: And Pfizer's point of sale measures, that was up 7% year of year in July.

[SPEAKER_00]: Average hour of the earnings of 3.2% that is less than the CPI 3.5, so real incomes remain in negative territory.

[SPEAKER_00]: But that's not stopping people from spending mainly because the wealth effects as the prices are up.

[SPEAKER_00]: So despite hiring cooling a little bit, layoffs are still relatively low.

[SPEAKER_00]: The Jolstata is okay, job openings are okay, quits are relatively steady.

[SPEAKER_00]: And employers are hiring still selectively.

[SPEAKER_00]: And if you go look at the Challenger Gray report,

[SPEAKER_00]: There's only about 333,000 planned job cuts in July.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's down 27% from June and 46% from July of last year.

[SPEAKER_00]: And again, that's higherings are increasing from a year earlier as well.

[SPEAKER_00]: So while the headline number looks bad, it doesn't, it isn't translating to real stress in the economy.

[SPEAKER_00]: As I said earlier, financials, and especially the banks, they continue to do fairly well.

[SPEAKER_00]: Financials are near the height of the year.

[SPEAKER_00]: A big part of it is long-term rates, while bad, the should be bad at some point for asset prices like real estate and equities.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's good for bank lending.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you go look at the year of year change and bank lending,

[SPEAKER_00]: So about 6.2% from commercial banks, which is good.

[SPEAKER_00]: Solid, now it's flat over the past six months or so.

[SPEAKER_00]: But it's not rolling over in a material way.

[SPEAKER_00]: And a steeper yield curve means more dollars into the system.

[SPEAKER_00]: It usually means a weaker dollar, and that's part of this as well.

[SPEAKER_00]: weaker dollar will make our goods more competitive.

[SPEAKER_00]: It loosens financial conditions overall.

[SPEAKER_00]: And it puts less pressure on the fed to high grades.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that's why you continue to see the odds of a rate hike come out of the long end of the curtain.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm still about two high expectations between now and the end october of next year.

[SPEAKER_00]: But frankly, I don't see it.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that this gunwash by being less communicative,

[SPEAKER_00]: what he said.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to get less forward guidance.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to allow the market do its thing.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's one of the reasons why the long end of the curve continues to go up.

[SPEAKER_00]: He is actually probably going to push for a pause until there is reason to cut rates.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think he's actually going to hit rates.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think he's going to, maybe unwind the balance sheet a little bit, he's going to allow the market to do the tightening for him by letting the long end of the curve go up.

[SPEAKER_00]: So to me, this is bearish for the dollar, because once again, gives more excuses for the Fed to remain on hold.

[SPEAKER_00]: Doesn't mean that the economy's rolling over, the economic data beyond this is not telling you that.

[SPEAKER_00]: And neither are the sectors in the economy, or in the market.

[SPEAKER_00]: Usually it's a signal, you get the industrials, you get the transportation stocks, you get the financials rolling over.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's not happening.

[SPEAKER_00]: And with an 8% deficit to GDP ratio, fiscal, we are in fiscal dominance.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that's why you continue to see despite the issues with what's gone in Middle East and higher oil prices,

[SPEAKER_00]: government spending that is being enabled by the bond market that's still relatively functional, that is driving nominal economic growth, that's higher earnings expectations because there's a correlation between economic growth, nominal GDP growth and earnings.

[SPEAKER_00]: So that is the summation of where we are in the economy as we

[SPEAKER_00]: head into the close to the end of the summer.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're about a month away, month left to summer.

[SPEAKER_00]: Our main focus point today concerns a story.

[SPEAKER_00]: Soft jobs report in the dollars new direction what it means for investors.

[SPEAKER_00]: A week, a weeker, things expected, actually, excuse me.

[SPEAKER_00]: And side by the newsletter, I got a confused here.

[SPEAKER_00]: A newsletter.

[SPEAKER_00]: Today we're this week, we're going to look at forward guidance.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's what we're going to discuss in the KPP Insight section in the stock section.

[SPEAKER_00]: We mentioned a diversified industrial company and the portfolio management section.

[SPEAKER_00]: We discussed what an all-time high really means for investors, what it's hell's investors.

[SPEAKER_00]: And the consumer watch section, we look at what a 4% savings rate really looks like after taxes and inflation.

[SPEAKER_00]: And if you're interested in learning more, visit us in besttalk.com and subscribe and the news that it will come to your inbox every Saturday.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, let's swing back to the best talk 24-7 voice bank.

[SPEAKER_00]: This question came in this morning on 8-899 chart.

[SPEAKER_09]: Hi, Justin and Luke.

[SPEAKER_09]: I am calling with a question pertaining to Otis.

[SPEAKER_09]: We inherited some Otis stock several years ago back in 2017.

[SPEAKER_09]: and just trying to see if we should continue to hold it or at this point, divester solves of it.

[SPEAKER_09]: It's been up and down, but generally flat.

[SPEAKER_09]: And although it pays a reasonable dividend, it's not compelling enough for us to continue to hold on to a lesser or some upside.

[SPEAKER_09]: So I wanted to get your thoughts on that.

[SPEAKER_09]: If you would respond to this question on your show that would be great and we'll listen actively.

[SPEAKER_00]: We can notice world why this is one of the largest producers of elevators and escalators, mainly in malls, office buildings, et cetera.

[SPEAKER_00]: One of the issues, I think a debate is that construction spending is up overall, but that's mainly because it's going into data centers, not commercial buildings, not new retail outlets.

[SPEAKER_00]: How many escalators and elevators think there are in a data center?

[SPEAKER_00]: I'll be not very many.

[SPEAKER_00]: And if there are, they're not used very often.

[SPEAKER_00]: Because a big part of their business is servicing these elevators and escalators.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, it's still a good business.

[SPEAKER_00]: Turned off the capital is 57.

[SPEAKER_00]: Sorry, 51, which is a very good number.

[SPEAKER_00]: Free cash flows 1.7 billion.

[SPEAKER_00]: You look at it.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's trend.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's, I wouldn't pay too much attention to the dividend.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's good, but that's not really what they're doing with their cash flow to imagine.

[SPEAKER_00]: They're probably buying back shares.

[SPEAKER_00]: We pull this up here.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, they'd be decent amount of debt about $9 billion in that debt of $27 billion markup.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's fine.

[SPEAKER_00]: But they've been buying back shares pretty aggressively since 20, 20, 40, 40, 43 million shares that standing back then, at the end of that 2020, now we're at 38, 380 million.

[SPEAKER_00]: reinvesting or buying back of the shares from that cash flow, I like that.

[SPEAKER_00]: I like the business overall.

[SPEAKER_00]: What I don't like is the stock trend.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't like the earnings expectations.

[SPEAKER_00]: Only 1% increase this year to 12% increase.

[SPEAKER_00]: Next year with those estimates continue to come down.

[SPEAKER_00]: So it's a very slow growth business in this environment.

[SPEAKER_00]: Last quarter earnings were down

[SPEAKER_00]: I'd have to look at the rest of your portfolio.

[SPEAKER_00]: I do think it's a good business.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't expect to turn around because the short term because the technicals are relatively poor, but it is cheap, and it's still a good business.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I want to see kind of a whole picture and what percentage of your total liquid asset this is, I want this to be less than 5% of your liquid asset.

[SPEAKER_00]: So the bare minimum, you probably want to get it down to that level and maybe even lower.

[SPEAKER_00]: But it depends on your total exposure

[SPEAKER_00]: Don't find it as you're going to make time to fit in a quick run-down, some key benchmarks.

[SPEAKER_00]: The two-year treasury yield, 4.16 last week was at 4.2.

[SPEAKER_00]: So down just the tad, so the market, pulling out some odds of rate hacks between now in your end.

[SPEAKER_00]: 10-year treasury yield, 4.69% last week was 4.65.

[SPEAKER_00]: You see that yield curve surfing, it's steepening, falling on the short end, rising on the

[SPEAKER_00]: Good for banks, good for economic growth, bad for market multiples, generally.

[SPEAKER_00]: Gold to price that $43.74 an ounce, up $20 from last week, silver, $64.68 an ounce, up a dollar three from last week, oil, $82.42 a barrel at the BTI, that's a $4 and 11 cent increase from last week, obviously continued.

[SPEAKER_00]: Middle East tensions will are driving prices higher and I think that will probably sustain as I said for a number of months now through the midterms.

[SPEAKER_00]: Gasoline prices $4.07 for recent increase from last week, here in California are paying

[SPEAKER_00]: Probably pretty human out there, but prices for gas are much lower $3.99 a gallon.

[SPEAKER_00]: Melts go answer another voicemail question down.

[SPEAKER_01]: Hello, good day.

[SPEAKER_01]: Luke and Justin, long time listener here from the Midwest, love the show.

[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you guys for everything you do.

[SPEAKER_01]: I have a question here.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'd like your advice on please.

[SPEAKER_01]: Trying to complete out another holding for my health care side of my portfolio.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I'm looking at J&J Johnson and Johnson, then I also was looking at AZN AstraZeneca, which I know you guys speak highly of.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I wasn't sure which of those, I guess, to make up my mind about it, which when you thought might be better.

[SPEAKER_01]: But then I came across,

[SPEAKER_01]: VHT, ETF on that holds all healthcare stocks and different companies.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I was wondering your advice on this.

[SPEAKER_01]: Would that be maybe my best choice to select that ETF has been going up very nicely?

[SPEAKER_01]: He's a little dividend, but it has all the stocks I mentioned in its holdings.

[SPEAKER_01]: I was wondering if that might be the best choice to meet a mate, and I won't have to worry about it,

[SPEAKER_01]: hold a lot of the medical sector and be good to go.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'll be listening on the show for your advice.

[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you very much, have a good day.

[SPEAKER_00]: All right, looking at VHT and this is the Vanguard Health Care ETF.

[SPEAKER_00]: And if you want broad base exposure, this is fine.

[SPEAKER_00]: You're going to pay only, it's a nine basis point.

[SPEAKER_00]: So pretty low expense ratio.

[SPEAKER_00]: 423 different names in here, but you're heavily way towards Eli Millie, that's 14% of the portfolio.

[SPEAKER_00]: But then Johnson and Johnson is right around nine.

[SPEAKER_00]: Abby are on six and a half, you're not in health around five and a half.

[SPEAKER_00]: Let's see, when do we get to AstraZeneca?

[SPEAKER_00]: It kind of depends on what you want.

[SPEAKER_00]: Do you want just simple exposure?

[SPEAKER_00]: This is a good way to get it.

[SPEAKER_00]: if you really like a particular name, like we really like AstraZeneca and it's business, it's growth, it's valuation, it's profitability, et cetera.

[SPEAKER_00]: So why we own it?

[SPEAKER_00]: We also like for the foreign exposure.

[SPEAKER_00]: But that brings more individual risk.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I think it also depends on what percentage your portfolio you're trying to get in healthcare.

[SPEAKER_00]: If it's eight, 10% something like that, that's when you probably want something that's broad base exposure.

[SPEAKER_00]: as opposed to one name like an AstraZeneca or even a Johnson and a Johnson.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I think for you, probably the simple answer is just by VHT.

[SPEAKER_00]: Those are the best stock.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm Justin Klein.

[SPEAKER_00]: We have one goal here each every week.

[SPEAKER_00]: They help you achieve your own version of financial freedom.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I want to work continues after this final break.

[SPEAKER_00]: Get your questions in right now.

[SPEAKER_00]: It ended at 99 chart.

[SPEAKER_04]: Got a question for Justin or Luke?

[SPEAKER_04]: I've heard you say multiple times that you prefer shorter duration, pressure, barred.

[SPEAKER_04]: You're the best person to ask it.

[SPEAKER_04]: Can you explain to me why it is more advisable?

[SPEAKER_02]: The symbol is you and I. T. Wondering what you thought about this read is it would be a good time to get in.

[SPEAKER_04]: Invest talk is ready 24-7.

[SPEAKER_10]: So, I was thinking, is it a good idea to sell your losses in a Roth IRA and just use whatever you have left to reinvest with the better stocks?

[SPEAKER_10]: Just wanted to ask you about one stock that I'm looking at in Turkey, E.T.R.

[SPEAKER_04]: If you could run that down for me.

[SPEAKER_04]: Don't forget to call, in best talk, 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_03]: There are a few things that make KPP financial special.

[SPEAKER_03]: One of them is parallel investing.

[SPEAKER_03]: This means they invest right alongside their clients.

[SPEAKER_03]: Here's how it works.

[SPEAKER_03]: When KPP financial makes a trade for their clients, just in client makes the same trade for himself and KPP.

[SPEAKER_03]: On the same day, at the same price and same percentage.

[SPEAKER_03]: No front running, no special treatment.

[SPEAKER_03]: Learn more about Parallel Investing at Investalk.com.

[SPEAKER_00]: After time and time, we will see questions submitted via our website.

[SPEAKER_00]: And here's one that came in today.

[SPEAKER_00]: So as could you please analyze Boston Scientific BSX is the symbol of what it greatly appreciated.

[SPEAKER_00]: Despite what our previous call is said, that healthcare stocks had been doing really well, they all aren't because Boston scientific is down considerably, down 52% from its 52 week high, even though it has bounced recently from a low around 43 to around 52 right now.

[SPEAKER_00]: But this is the perfect example of a name where it was growing nicely, made 96 cents in 2020, and that increased all the way up to $3.06 last year up 22 percent earnings growth.

[SPEAKER_00]: But this year earnings growth is only up 6 or 8 in revenue growth up 6.

[SPEAKER_00]: A next year expectation is for earnings growth 4 as well as revenue growth at 4.

[SPEAKER_00]: dramatically, you get this multiple contraction.

[SPEAKER_00]: So that's the positive here.

[SPEAKER_00]: This isn't down because of the business struggling and it's just slowing.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm okay with that.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now if I go look at the numbers, still 75 billion dollar market cap, it is back to kind of where it broke out in 2023 or in this 50 range.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so from the technical perspective, this is pretty good.

[SPEAKER_00]: Sorry, free cash flow, $75 billion market cap.

[SPEAKER_00]: And it's probably valued even around 13.

[SPEAKER_00]: Let me see what this normally trades.

[SPEAKER_00]: Kind of pre, I mean, it's still, it's actually pretty cheap all time, because what it looks like is the spite earnings growth slowing, free cash flows near an all-time high.

[SPEAKER_00]: So where's the beef here?

[SPEAKER_00]: I actually kind of like this.

[SPEAKER_00]: And for everyone else out there, Boston Scientific, they develop manufacture and market cardiology and discope, intervention and neurology.

[SPEAKER_00]: It could this be a GOP-1 casually, potentially, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: People losing weight, having less heart attacks, heart issues, et cetera, that's certainly possible.

[SPEAKER_00]: But that is not reflecting in the cash flow of the business still very good.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I kind of like it.

[SPEAKER_00]: Let me get Boston Scientific thumbs up.

[SPEAKER_00]: How much money you need to make you happy?

[SPEAKER_00]: Now it's gonna form your investment choices.

[SPEAKER_00]: So there's an old adage about rolling a dice, if you roll a dice, whatever the number comes up, you'll earn that amount of dollars, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Now if you do that over a long period of time, the average amount you'll get is $3.50 per roll, just simple math.

[SPEAKER_00]: You do that 10,000 times, you could pay,

[SPEAKER_00]: $3 every time you roll, you do it 10,000 times.

[SPEAKER_00]: You're almost guaranteed to come out ahead by about $5,000.

[SPEAKER_00]: Because of the wall large numbers.

[SPEAKER_00]: But if you do that once, let's say, you pay $30,000, and whatever number you get, you get that times 10,000, well, maybe you're not going to make that roll, because you could just roll it, roll it one or two, and now you're out, 10 or 20,000 dollars.

[SPEAKER_00]: even though the expected return on that role is $5,000.

[SPEAKER_00]: So that is something that can inform your ability to take risks.

[SPEAKER_00]: And it also tells you a lot about the marginal gain from every dollar you make.

[SPEAKER_00]: The marginal happiness, excuse me, from additional dollar you make.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you're poor, you get a million dollars.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's life-changing.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you already have a million dollars, you get another million, that's really nice, but it's not changing your life dramatically.

[SPEAKER_00]: So the same thing I've said about the investment world, when you're really happy,

[SPEAKER_00]: Really happy it makes more sense to take some risk off the table because making another 10, 15, 20%, that's great, but losing another 30, 40% from a very happy place can be very detrimental to your financial situation as well as your psyche.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, and you're happiness.

[SPEAKER_00]: So make sure you're really happy.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's okay to take some chips off the table.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now I'm just inclined in writing you about cake, fee financials, parallel investing, and make a trade for our clients, make a same trade for ourselves, same day, same price, same percentage of no front running.

[SPEAKER_00]: No special treatment.

[SPEAKER_00]: We invest right alongside our clients, to the same risk and potential for success.

[SPEAKER_00]: And you can learn more about how you go between best luck.com.

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[SPEAKER_00]: What a week it was.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is the best talk.

[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you all for being here until here weekend

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[SPEAKER_04]: Specifically, nothing sets shall be taken to be investment advice, or shell statements on this program be considered an offer to buy or sell security, because such advice is rendered solely on an individual basis, and at times will require that the investor review a

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