[SPEAKER_06]: This is Invest Talk, from KPP Financial, helping investors make sense of the markets one day at a time.

[SPEAKER_06]: Here's your host, Justin Klein.

[SPEAKER_01]: Good afternoon, fellow investors, and welcome back to another edition of Invest Talk for Sir Tuesday, August 18th, 2026 edition.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was a red day at markets and talking for a few days now, getting that, that's, the hair is standing up in the back of my neck.

[SPEAKER_01]: Stay that.

[SPEAKER_01]: When it comes to the market, I'm doing this for 25 years, you know, you kind of know the patterns, you feel the patterns, you absorb the patterns that you see in markets and then you're digging into kind of the.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, we have a million different tools that we use for managing portfolios, rebalancing portfolios and it's timely manner, et cetera, and a lot of it is about market structure.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's so much about market structure today.

[SPEAKER_01]: Both the option markets, index flows, all of that.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's almost a new vertical of analysis that is difficult because it's so new.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, indexing is the only bin around for a period of

[SPEAKER_01]: And then option volume has exploded since COVID.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so these are new variables that you have to bring in to your analysis.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that's what we're here to help with.

[SPEAKER_01]: We do this professionally.

[SPEAKER_01]: We do this for clients every single day.

[SPEAKER_01]: So we're bringing that expertise.

[SPEAKER_01]: So we're bringing that perspective.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're bringing that data to you.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, usually that is that data is applied to our particular portfolios.

[SPEAKER_01]: That we're running for clients.

[SPEAKER_01]: So we don't know what your portfolio looks like.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that's why it's always good for you to call as your question, get our perspective based on your particular situation.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I encourage you, give us a call, eight, eight, nine, nine chart is the number to get through.

[SPEAKER_01]: Any time a day, 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now just a bit, we'll talk about today's Mark performance and run down the show topics for the hour.

[SPEAKER_01]: But as usual, we'll tackle this first call.

[SPEAKER_01]: First call or question now, here we go.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is Kyle for mission, a long time listener.

[SPEAKER_00]: I was just calling about ticker symbol, C, R, D, O, Crito technology group.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I want to know if it was a good buyer not.

[SPEAKER_00]: All right, thanks.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'll be listening to your answer on the podcast.

[SPEAKER_00]: Bye.

[SPEAKER_01]: Looking at Crito technology group, CR, E, D, sorry, CR, D, O is a simple spelled CR, E, D, O.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is, let's take, provides technology services.

[SPEAKER_01]: That doesn't help me very much.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, different pieces of software that give me summaries, some are shorter than others.

[SPEAKER_01]: Other one says development of connectivity solutions and products for the data infrastructure market.

[SPEAKER_01]: So clearly, these are, this is a business that's doing well because of AI, they build integrated circuits, active electrical cables, et cetera.

[SPEAKER_01]: They lost money in 2021, then five cents in 2022, then nine, then 70 cents, last your $2.51, then this year is $6.18, next year is a certain $9.15, so very, very tied to the AI data infrastructure.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's anything that is related to data centers.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's already peaked.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so, it's a name do watch.

[SPEAKER_01]: See if it can actually produce $9 earnings next year.

[SPEAKER_01]: And if it can, anything sub-200 would be a pretty decent price to pay, right now it's at $2.45.

[SPEAKER_01]: So the technicals are,

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, but certainly weakening of events, I'm as weakening like a lot of the names in the space.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I would hold on to hold off on it because I think the whole space is just about to go through a deeper correction that what we saw in the month of July.

[SPEAKER_01]: Good to be wrong, but I don't think this is over.

[SPEAKER_01]: And today is a good example.

[SPEAKER_01]: This stock itself was down 14%.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's down another 1.7% after hours.

[SPEAKER_01]: So a whole space, to me, is set to fall apart in the short term.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that's why I would stay away from it.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, we have a great show, and we had a great show yesterday.

[SPEAKER_01]: We do have a great show today, but we had a great show.

[SPEAKER_01]: We looked into global shipping, under siege, talk about the supply chain bottlenecks that all the hostilities in the Middle East are causing, what that means for different sectors in your portfolio.

[SPEAKER_01]: We also answered a listener question on the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF and if you have a miss it, go check it out.

[SPEAKER_01]: Best way to get every show is to fall in best talk wherever you get your podcast.

[SPEAKER_01]: I've a lot of ground to cover over the next 45 minutes or so in time for meeting, we'll get to all of it.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, focus point today concerns the story of the trillion dollar interest bill, nobody votes on federal government will spend about a trillion dollars on interest this year alone.

[SPEAKER_01]: And every rate increase makes that number larger.

[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll explain what the government's own borrowing costs.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, shape monetary policy.

[SPEAKER_01]: And what that means for long-dated bonds.

[SPEAKER_01]: And why central banks around the world are buying gold at the fastest pace in a year.

[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll look at that topic.

[SPEAKER_01]: In addition, the world's largest car makers, they're looking to avoid some,

[SPEAKER_01]: Some pane and some supply chain issues by switching the type of oil they're using in your car.

[SPEAKER_01]: So this is a microcosm, what's going on more broadly.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then lastly, Goldman Sachs is trying to get in on the derivative ETF game.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's a smart move.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's a smart move for you to buy these buffery ETFs, cover call ETFs, things that overlay

[SPEAKER_01]: or a certain amount of option activity within the portfolio.

[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll look at that as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: We also, most importantly, we'll have your voice bank calls to answer one is on drip stocks and then advent of Vantes International Equity TF, A-V-D-E.

[SPEAKER_01]: And of course, your questions that came in via the invest talk, YouTube channel, but by far, most importantly, will be your live call.

[SPEAKER_01]: So if you pick up the phone, you will be put in front of the line.

[SPEAKER_01]: You'll be put in front of all the different topics that we talk about throughout the day.

[SPEAKER_01]: So,

[SPEAKER_01]: Don't hesitate, but right now we're going to go to a quick break because we're going to be collecting time.

[SPEAKER_01]: Leave your question on the investor's luck voice bank and if you're listening via our live stream on vestalk.com or possibly on Amtletal 20 in the Bay Area, you can call right now at 888 now you're going to chart up next, I'll comment on today's market activity.

[SPEAKER_06]: Justin Klein is here and he's ready with answers to your finance and investment questions call in vest talk 88899 chart let's go talk about the market rotation we are in the midst of we kind of had that in the month of July and you had the bounce back and a lot of the AI names

[SPEAKER_01]: in the first half call it of August.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now we are really back over and seeing that rotation.

[SPEAKER_01]: You see, it saw a lot of weakness today in the hardware names from video to microns, sand disc, to marvel technologies, even meta down 4% on the day,

[SPEAKER_01]: Industrial companies related to AI, caterpillar, GVernova, applied materials, land research, et cetera, but there was a lot of green in places like healthcare, you line the only up 3.6, Johnson, Johnson, Johnson, 3.3, add V up over 3, Gilly add up over 3, et cetera.

[SPEAKER_01]: The finance space was a bit mixed, a lot of the big banks were strong with JP Morgan and Big America up, same with Charles Schwab and American Express,

[SPEAKER_01]: clearly linked to tech portfolio in the show we say.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think this is a rotation that's about to resume.

[SPEAKER_01]: Could be wrong, but that's what the hares in the back of my neck are telling me.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're also at news from the financial times, which is reporting that Kevin Awards is expected to use the Jackson Hole speech coming up in 10 days on the 28th.

[SPEAKER_01]: to unveil a new framework for the Fed.

[SPEAKER_01]: Clareifying were things that he might have said didn't really hit with markets.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, what would that reaction be?

[SPEAKER_01]: We'll see, but that's something the market's starting to brace for what's you're going to say and how will that impact the trend of interest rates, which certainly have been higher, but you get a breakout in rates, or maybe a pullback in rates, or maybe nothing at all, but we'll see.

[SPEAKER_01]: We've been video earnings coming up on the 26th, that's the next big area focus for AI.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's coming up in a little over a week.

[SPEAKER_01]: But like I said, it's really about a market that is rotating.

[SPEAKER_01]: The Middle East, there's no real action there.

[SPEAKER_01]: Oil continues to kind of grind higher.

[SPEAKER_01]: I could easily see a breakout to the upside in the medium term.

[SPEAKER_01]: The dollar was flat on the day.

[SPEAKER_01]: Treasuries were unchanged to a bit stronger.

[SPEAKER_01]: You saw yields were down, one to two basis points, but that's after a pretty big rise.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's kind of one day a little pullback.

[SPEAKER_01]: We'll see if that.

[SPEAKER_01]: Gains any momentum, but unlikely.

[SPEAKER_01]: Gold finished down 1.2% silver down 3.3 Bitcoin was up to 0.8%.

[SPEAKER_01]: So a rare day, we're Bitcoin's outperforming.

[SPEAKER_01]: Gold, as of late, WTI crude settled up 0.4%.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like I said, just kind of grinding higher as no resolution in the middle.

[SPEAKER_01]: East so that was the market today.

[SPEAKER_01]: Kind of a mixed bag, but mostly red.

[SPEAKER_01]: with the tech name, especially the tech hardware names, dragging down the indices.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's go answer a YouTube comment question.

[SPEAKER_01]: Jimmy says, I've looked into some oil and gas names that might be a good investment for the moment.

[SPEAKER_01]: These names are Valera Energy, Marathon Patrol, even Philips 66.

[SPEAKER_01]: You just mentioned Valera on your show, so I won't ask about that again, but I would appreciate if you give me your thoughts on Marathon and Philips.

[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you very much for the show.

[SPEAKER_01]: So,

[SPEAKER_01]: I've been saying this for the past couple of months, which is the lack of huge upside fall through in the oil market.

[SPEAKER_01]: Kind of tells me there's a cap on we call the right tail risk.

[SPEAKER_01]: So when you look at a normal distribution of outcomes, of returns, you get kind of that two standard deviations where most 90, five out of 100 times, you're gonna get outcomes that are within that range.

[SPEAKER_01]: So normal distribution.

[SPEAKER_01]: You have three standard deviations that's 90, roughly 98%.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then you keep going out.

[SPEAKER_01]: And if you get further out into the right or the left,

[SPEAKER_01]: On the right side is usually in the market's parlance, it's a good outcome, being returns our sky high versus far left, that is very, very low, right, a crash, shall we say?

[SPEAKER_01]: So what this is told me about oils at the right tail is not the high, now part of

[SPEAKER_01]: but it's clear that there's a lot of oil out there.

[SPEAKER_01]: The market kind of figures that out.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's easy to move oil around the world.

[SPEAKER_01]: What it's hard to do is to move an increased capacity for refining.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so that's why I'm starting to like a lot of the refineries long-term.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now what you named are just the three of the biggest refining companies.

[SPEAKER_01]: Marathon is about a hundred billion

[SPEAKER_01]: fill up 66 PSX is about 95 billion, and then Valero is right around there.

[SPEAKER_01]: So they're all about 100 billion in market cap.

[SPEAKER_01]: So all very good companies, H is the matter of, you know, what you prefer, frankly.

[SPEAKER_01]: I know, last time I checked Marathon had a lot of debt on its balance sheet, I know that's been repaired to some degree, so that's a positive,

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, look at these different profitability, I mean, you're kind of getting a pureplay exposure no matter what.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, I would go with the one that has a better long-term profitability metrics, and frankly, that's marathon.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, that's M-P-C.

[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for the question.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're heading to a break.

[SPEAKER_01]: Give me a call now.

[SPEAKER_01]: Aided it.

[SPEAKER_06]: There are a few things that make KPP financial special.

[SPEAKER_06]: One of them is parallel investing.

[SPEAKER_06]: This means they invest right alongside their clients.

[SPEAKER_06]: Here's how it works.

[SPEAKER_06]: When KPP financial makes a trade for their clients, just in client makes the same trade for himself and KPP.

[SPEAKER_06]: On the same day, at the same price, and same percentage.

[SPEAKER_06]: No front running, no special treatment.

[SPEAKER_06]: Learn more about Parallel Investing at Investalk.com.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's good talk about a supply chain bottleneck.

[SPEAKER_01]: Second order effect.

[SPEAKER_01]: And it's on Motorola.

[SPEAKER_01]: That crazy?

[SPEAKER_01]: You think it's all about gasoline or diesel?

[SPEAKER_01]: No, it's refined products.

[SPEAKER_01]: And this is one of many issues that the war in the Middle East is creating.

[SPEAKER_01]: Carmakers from Volkswagen's Atlantis, Toyota, they're all looking at alternative blends of fuel to put in their cars.

[SPEAKER_01]: Because the big refinery that supplied most of the industry

[SPEAKER_01]: which was hit by an Iranian missile back in March.

[SPEAKER_01]: So car makers are running out of inventory of high quality fuels that are needed in these engines.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, internal combustion engines throughout the years it became more and more advanced even the most basic for cylinder, you know, cheap car has a pre-sophisticated engine that needs good oil.

[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of times synthetic oils that once again

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, the price of what I call group three base oils has tripled since the previous since before the war, to about $4,000 per ton, both in Europe and here in the U.S. And they said, even if the trader moves open to tomorrow, there would still be shortages at least through early August, October.

[SPEAKER_01]: So car makers are looking to find alternatives that meet their standards and

[SPEAKER_01]: will not ruin the engines of their customers, and the cars that they're building, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: Because they're still building new cars.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, they may be forced to become more flexible, but then to the day, this is a huge problem.

[SPEAKER_01]: You're already seeing delays in oil changes at certain dealerships, both in Japan and elsewhere, because of the shortage of these fuels.

[SPEAKER_01]: Still, on to this is evaluating reformulated lubricants,

[SPEAKER_01]: that still meet the industry standards, but are different than what they normally get.

[SPEAKER_01]: German car makers also secured necessary supply for now, but once again, they're running low, and they're looking for alternatives that comply with their technical specifications and quality requirements.

[SPEAKER_01]: The one company that's done fairly well so far is Toyota, they secured alternative supplies many months ago.

[SPEAKER_01]: But once again, there are still issues that are building up.

[SPEAKER_01]: But because of the price of oil, this is feeding into, into the economy, into inflation.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's forcing taxis to raise their prices for consumers, for example, because if you're a taxi driver, you're changing oil all the time, because you need to be driving a lot of miles.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I wanted to highlight that because this is an under-discussed element of that push-higher inflation.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's keep things moving and pay the back to the investment like Boyzbank from 8-8, 99 chart.

[SPEAKER_03]: I was wondering if you have a portfolio around like 35 stocks and like 30 of them are no-in-drip, do you recommend keeping stocks in-drip or taking the cash dividend and purchasing additional shares as you go along?

[SPEAKER_03]: Thanks.

[SPEAKER_03]: Thanks for all you guys do.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, he's talking about dividend reinvestment plan.

[SPEAKER_01]: They've been around for a long time.

[SPEAKER_01]: They used to be cracking the day, you just go buy Coca-Cola, or IBM, or any of the blue chip names that paid dividend.

[SPEAKER_01]: And at that time, commissions were very high.

[SPEAKER_01]: So if you wanted to go buy more shares, that was kind of expensive.

[SPEAKER_01]: But instead, they said, these dividend reinvestment plans,

[SPEAKER_01]: Instead of you taking the cash, it would automatically buy into, buy, buy, take that cash and buy more shares of the stock and over time that compounding can be very, very powerful as long as it's a company that remains relevant remains profitable and especially continues to increase that dividend over time.

[SPEAKER_01]: So the idea of a drip made a ton of sense in an era of high commissions.

[SPEAKER_01]: But we're no longer in that era.

[SPEAKER_01]: Cost you nothing to go.

[SPEAKER_01]: Take that cash from your dividend.

[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe go buy a different stock.

[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe split it up.

[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe buy a little bit of the stock that paid you.

[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe another one.

[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe keep a little on the sidelines because you're waiting for a better buying opportunity.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's just a lot more flexibility of not having to worry about the commissions.

[SPEAKER_01]: How do we do it at KPP?

[SPEAKER_01]: We take it as cash.

[SPEAKER_01]: Because we want that cash ready so we can deploy it.

[SPEAKER_01]: strategically on a market pullback and by rebalance in the portfolio.

[SPEAKER_01]: Just because how many paid is it evident is that the name that we want to buy more of, maybe there's another name that might be slightly underweight.

[SPEAKER_01]: We want to buy that name instead and use that cash for that position.

[SPEAKER_01]: So no, I don't think, I think drips are fine if you're kind of a buy it and hold it and forget about it type of investor.

[SPEAKER_01]: actively managing the portfolio, I'd take it as cash.

[SPEAKER_01]: Next in Vestock, we look into the story, small cap, it's woke up, is the rally finally broadening.

[SPEAKER_01]: The Russell 2000 set a fresh record, the close at the last week, even as large caps struggle to look into that leadership rotation tomorrow, but for now, I'm just inclined and we're ready to take your calls any time and eight and eight ninety nine chart.

[SPEAKER_01]: At KPP Financial, Accountability means more than advice.

[SPEAKER_01]: It means we invest alongside you through our parallel investing approach.

[SPEAKER_01]: When we recommend an investment for clients, one or more KPP principles invest their own capital at the same time.

[SPEAKER_01]: Same day, same price, same percentage.

[SPEAKER_01]: If your portfolio moves, ours does too.

[SPEAKER_01]: That is alignment.

[SPEAKER_01]: That is transparency.

[SPEAKER_01]: That is the KPP difference.

[SPEAKER_01]: Visit investtalk.com to get your free portfolio review.

[SPEAKER_06]: Every investor is working to build a secure financial future.

[SPEAKER_06]: How they get there and when they get there, that depends on many factors.

[SPEAKER_06]: The more you learn about how the market works, the better your chances for success.

[SPEAKER_06]: So don't forget to call, in Vestard, 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, I made a focus point today, is about the trillion dollar interest bill.

[SPEAKER_01]: There'll be a revolted up.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, we voted for the politicians that spent and spent, despite many of them espousing that they would stop spending, or reduce spending, and that's just never happened.

[SPEAKER_01]: So now we have interest that's topping 100% of debt to GDP ratio, deficits around 6% to 7% of deficit to GDP ratio means every year that number is going up about 6% to 7% total debt compared to our GDP.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it used to be just a small line at him.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now it is a structural macro economic driver because it's part of spending.

[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of people don't realize this, but this is now basically mandatory spending.

[SPEAKER_01]: Just as Medicare, Medicare, or Social Security, mandatory spending, we basically have to spend this interest.

[SPEAKER_01]: And those are dollars that go out into the system.

[SPEAKER_01]: And this is part of what is created fiscal dominance.

[SPEAKER_01]: As I said before, everyone talks about the Fed, so the Fed is an impact.

[SPEAKER_01]: But fiscal matters far more.

[SPEAKER_01]: Fiscal is dominating the monetary policy picture.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so we know this is a big reason why interests are going up.

[SPEAKER_01]: And why central banks are pivoting to gold.

[SPEAKER_01]: So let's talk about it.

[SPEAKER_01]: So one of the big issues with having such a high deficit to GDP ratio is that if it's higher than economic growth,

[SPEAKER_01]: So, for example, if you're deficit the GDP ratio is 6%, but you're growing 79%, oh, you're overall debt the GDP goes down.

[SPEAKER_01]: But that's not the case.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, last quarter, our GDP was up about one and a half percent.

[SPEAKER_01]: Real, the nominal was like four and a half, but our deficit was 67%.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's when our debt accelerates aggressively.

[SPEAKER_01]: Right now, the $1 trillion bill, that's about 14% of all federal outlets.

[SPEAKER_01]: And in 10 years, that's expected to grow to 30%.

[SPEAKER_01]: So this is impacting the bond market.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's a treasury imbalance mainly because traditional foreign buyers are now buying a lot less.

[SPEAKER_01]: Treasuries having to roll trillions of dollars

[SPEAKER_01]: Just to fund the new deficit and to refinance the old.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is why the 10 and the 30 year yields are rising that puts an upward floor on long-term rates.

[SPEAKER_01]: And this feeds into mortgage rates, auto loans, corporate debt, etc.

[SPEAKER_01]: It weighs on the economy.

[SPEAKER_01]: It pushes up long-term interest rates by about one-and-a-half to four-point-seven basis points.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, debt to GDP goes from 100 to 120.

[SPEAKER_01]: You're talking about a potential 1% increase and interest rates roughly.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's interesting right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: The market's starting to price in that debt spiral.

[SPEAKER_01]: not just China and Russia who, you know, they've been aggressively selling treasuries or swapping treasuries.

[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of them haven't really been selling.

[SPEAKER_01]: They've just been allowing them to mature and instead of reinvesting those intrasuries, they're buying gold.

[SPEAKER_01]: To protect them from US sanctions, as well as fiscal instability.

[SPEAKER_01]: Because gold is a liability free asset.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's a hard currency.

[SPEAKER_01]: You can't be printed or default to remember the brick currencies they were talking about.

[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, they're going to start this brick currency.

[SPEAKER_01]: Brazil, Russia, India, China, blah, blah.

[SPEAKER_01]: No, you know what that is?

[SPEAKER_01]: It's gold.

[SPEAKER_01]: That is the brick currency.

[SPEAKER_01]: And we know now that gold holdings, it's the on central bank balance sheets has now exceeded U.S. treasuries.

[SPEAKER_01]: The dollar share of global reserves is falling from 71% in 1999 to around 54% today.

[SPEAKER_01]: So these are all dollar-denominated assets that includes stocks, corporate bonds, and treasuries, et cetera.

[SPEAKER_01]: So this is the impact that this trillion dollar bill is having on our government as well as our economy.

[SPEAKER_02]: Good afternoon, gentlemen.

[SPEAKER_02]: I've heard you all loud and clear about upping your international exposure.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I've been looking for some ETS that will help me out in that category, not much of a stock picker.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I've found an ETS A, V, D, E, it's an ETS from Edvantis.

[SPEAKER_02]: She's a have a low expense ratio.

[SPEAKER_02]: Am I looking in the right direction right now?

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't have much international

[SPEAKER_02]: equity exposure at all.

[SPEAKER_02]: Am I barking up the right tree?

[SPEAKER_02]: Let me know the thumbs up.

[SPEAKER_02]: Thumbs up.

[SPEAKER_02]: Thank you so much.

[SPEAKER_01]: Alright, looking at the Avantus International Equity TF AVD is a symbol.

[SPEAKER_01]: And you're correct.

[SPEAKER_01]: You want more international exposure.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, this is more of a large cap blend slash value.

[SPEAKER_01]: It kind of leans value.

[SPEAKER_01]: but it's more of a blend ETF.

[SPEAKER_01]: About a hundred is a 3,300 name, so a lot of holdings here.

[SPEAKER_01]: Top holding is ASML, 1.4% of the portfolio.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's the biggest holding.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you can see how well diversified this really is.

[SPEAKER_01]: But 10.5% is in basal materials.

[SPEAKER_01]: I like that.

[SPEAKER_01]: I like that double digit exposure, not many ETFs have that.

[SPEAKER_01]: But any of the services are at 25% that's a little high for my book, but I still like that sector as a whole in the banking sector, especially internationally, is done very, very well and expected to do that well.

[SPEAKER_01]: Going forward.

[SPEAKER_01]: Industrial, it's about 20% of the portfolio, that's the second highest waiting there.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's much better than the category average.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I like that exposure energy about 7.4, the category average is only four.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's definitely leaning in the type of sectors that I like.

[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I think of the international ETFs, this is one of the best ones to gain that exposure.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you're not a stock picker, just gain that broad based exposure.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now the expense ratio,

[SPEAKER_01]: is about 23 basis points, so nearly a quarter of one percent, which is, I would say for an international ETF, it's fine.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's not low.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's not high.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's about probably where it should be.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm going to give AVDE advantage international equity ETF that comes up.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's go pivot to another voicemail

[SPEAKER_04]: I just have a question about shorting a stock versus buying puts on a stock.

[SPEAKER_04]: I know that both bearish sentiments, but what is the fundamental difference between these two and why would someone do one versus the other, which one is more profitable, which one is more risky, just wanted to understand this more.

[SPEAKER_04]: Thank you so much.

[SPEAKER_04]: Have a great day.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is a, this is a great question, because there are different risks here involved.

[SPEAKER_01]: So with a shorting a stock is your selling it today and you're hoping to buy it back later at a lower price.

[SPEAKER_01]: You're borrowing it from the broker you're selling it today.

[SPEAKER_01]: You're hoping to buy it back later at a lower price.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's the simple mechanism.

[SPEAKER_01]: The risk there is that it could go up indefinitely.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's no limit, there's no limit on how high it can go.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you can get short squeeze out of it.

[SPEAKER_01]: If it keeps going up, you're gonna lose the time

[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe he's shorted at $50, it goes to $500.

[SPEAKER_01]: You lose 10x to your money.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're not, you shorted, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: That's the potential, no, that's very rare, but that could happen.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that's number one for short selling.

[SPEAKER_01]: When buying a put, the good thing is about a put is you have very limited downside.

[SPEAKER_01]: Whatever you paid for that put, that's your downside.

[SPEAKER_01]: You go to zero.

[SPEAKER_01]: But the odds of a zero going to zero are fairly high, most options expire worthless.

[SPEAKER_01]: So depending on what strike you pick and expiration, all of that, you could certainly lose your principle.

[SPEAKER_01]: But you can make a ton, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: If you say this locks at 50, you buy a 40 strike put.

[SPEAKER_01]: And it goes to $20, well, you made $20 on that per whatever premium you paid.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's because you go basically sell it for 40 and buy it for 20.

[SPEAKER_01]: The rest though is what was called faded decay.

[SPEAKER_01]: Over time, the time value, you lose money.

[SPEAKER_01]: With a shorting a stock, you never have to worry about that.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's no time to cater.

[SPEAKER_01]: You can hold that short for as long as you want, as long as you're not squeezed out of it.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I like the idea of buying a put, but you want to give it time, you actually want to buy a lot of time.

[SPEAKER_01]: Probably six months to a year plus for your thesis to play out.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then there's that kind of leverage involved there.

[SPEAKER_01]: So different risks, but I like the way you're thinking of which one is best for you.

[SPEAKER_01]: So do a little more research and figure out what makes sense for your portfolio.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's go take a live call, Bill, and Northern California, looking at Chevron.

[SPEAKER_08]: Hey Justin, good afternoon.

[SPEAKER_08]: Yeah, I have the stock of all that for like two years

[SPEAKER_07]: or maybe down to $35 a share.

[SPEAKER_08]: You know, I, you know, I like it as a long-term and a dividend holding, but I'm also, you know, just learning over time to like, solve some shares when stocks are high and then not, but not liquidate the opposition, but solve some of it and then when it dipped back, make the decision whether to buy some more back.

[SPEAKER_08]: And that way, kind of,

[SPEAKER_08]: I just don't like riding stocks up and down 20, 30 percent.

[SPEAKER_08]: He kind of makes you feel like other people are taking advantage of you.

[SPEAKER_08]: But I put in a good account for order for like a few shares for like two or eight and some for like two or 15, it is a pop.

[SPEAKER_08]: But what do you think the long term trend is on like Chevron?

[SPEAKER_08]: two to four years, not ten years, and then general, what do you think about selling some if this level or a little bit higher than this?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, first off, those things advantage of you, you're just in a name that is very cyclical.

[SPEAKER_01]: You'll look at the earnings, you know, it's up and down and made

[SPEAKER_01]: $18.83 in 2022 and then last year they only made $7.29 and then back to 15 and changed this year and then 13 next year.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's the type of name that's all over the board.

[SPEAKER_01]: Why?

[SPEAKER_01]: Because commodity producer, they are what we call a price taker for the most part.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, the good thing about Chevron is that they are fairly, fairly diverse.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're not just an EMP company, they're not just finding oil.

[SPEAKER_01]: They are doing that, but they're also refining oil.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that's part of the business that's doing very, very well right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: So the question, to me, longer term is what do you want just kind of this plug-and-play diversified energy name in Chevron is, as you said, a good long-term player in that sense, but it's still going to be very volatile and very up and down, especially as oil prices and the crack spreads move.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's up now, I think there's some more upside in the near term.

[SPEAKER_01]: I will say that mainly because the problems of the Middle East are not really going anywhere.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's just stalemate.

[SPEAKER_01]: I highly doubt that we're going to get any resolution in the short term.

[SPEAKER_01]: and I've been saying that for a number of months now and some people call me crazy, but I said, this is gonna drag on into the midterms and it certainly has at least so far.

[SPEAKER_01]: And you're starting to get those supply issues that everyone was worried about initially, starting to creep up, we talked about the engine oil, but also,

[SPEAKER_01]: supplies of actual raw crude or starting to dwindle as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, I would continue to hold it.

[SPEAKER_01]: I actually wouldn't, I actually think this could break out.

[SPEAKER_01]: Probably closer to, I would trim it right around 2.30, 2.30, 2.35, and that range, I definitely think it could get there in the medium term.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I like what you're thinking is,

[SPEAKER_01]: My grandpa was said, said, was buy when they're sellers and sell when they're buyers.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, right now they're a buyers, I would just had a pullback through April, May and June, July, kind of reset sentiment.

[SPEAKER_01]: To me, this is just started a recent uptrend, and I think there's some more upside to come.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, I like what you're thinking, but I'd still be a little more patient with it.

[SPEAKER_01]: And by when things are really

[SPEAKER_01]: I would say bad for the oil market or good, however you want to look at a good for Chevron if prices really spike, which I think they very well could between now and year.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so to me, I would be selling into that type of search.

[SPEAKER_08]: That's what I'm looking at.

[SPEAKER_08]: I appreciate your.

[SPEAKER_08]: You don't put it.

[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you so much.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I'll just just be a little more patient with but very good idea and that's a lesson for everyone out there, especially when you're in cyclical names like this, go look at the history of earnings.

[SPEAKER_01]: I was hit up and down or it's just kind of steady, consistent growth.

[SPEAKER_01]: The names that are up and down when times are good, you, how you know that that will eventually turn.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're saying commodity markets, the cure for high prices is high prices.

[SPEAKER_01]: So if you're in a commodity name and prices are

[SPEAKER_01]: And it's easy to bring on news supply, guess what?

[SPEAKER_01]: The market will do that.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that will turn profits.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so these are the lessons you have to learn throughout the years as your managing your portfolio.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now we're heading into our final break.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm ready to take your questions now at 8.89 in charge.

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[SPEAKER_06]: Justin Klein is here now taking your calls live.

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[SPEAKER_07]: Hi Justin.

[SPEAKER_07]: Hi Luke.

[SPEAKER_07]: I have a question.

[SPEAKER_07]: I've been buying some software names.

[SPEAKER_07]: And I recently bought Accenture,

[SPEAKER_07]: They're all up between 15 and 35% is this still an area that you guys feel is undervalued and appreciate your input.

[SPEAKER_07]: Thanks.

[SPEAKER_07]: Bye.

[SPEAKER_01]: I love this call.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's an interesting call because why I think in general the areas undervalued.

[SPEAKER_01]: There are land mines within this sector, sub-sector.

[SPEAKER_01]: Every software vertical is different.

[SPEAKER_01]: Some are very susceptible to AI displacing them, or a competitor who can spin up another offering, using AI easily.

[SPEAKER_01]: While others are more insulated, now Accenture is, I haven't even called it,

[SPEAKER_01]: software.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's more of a IT consultant.

[SPEAKER_01]: Problem is that that's an area I think that IT can or AI can probably help resolve or help the augment.

[SPEAKER_01]: And it shows in the results.

[SPEAKER_01]: This year revenue is only supposed to be up 6% and 4% next year after being up 7% last year and earnings are desalerating as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you're talking about a very low growth

[SPEAKER_01]: versus things that salesforce is another vertical where I think it can be easily displaced.

[SPEAKER_01]: CRM, that's why this symbol is CRM, even as called salesforce is customer relationship management software.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's basically a spreadsheet in the back end.

[SPEAKER_01]: On customer data, notes, all of that, yeah, there are some integrations and things like that, and I'd say salesforce is going away over name, I'm not.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm talking about the risk of the business over the medium to long term.

[SPEAKER_01]: To me, I would put Accenture at higher risk than sales force, and then sales force higher risk than your other name, which is service now.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is more deeply integrated into the process of big corporations.

[SPEAKER_01]: only 13% this year and then 10% next year versus service now, you're still seeing growth decelerate but not nearly to the same degree earnings are up 26% last year up 16% this year but then up 23% next year revenue was up 21% last year so we have 22% this year 19% next year so it's relatively stable.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's a much better business that you are paying a bit of a premium for that, but it's still relatively cheap.

[SPEAKER_01]: Before looking earnings at 502, that's about a 20, what are we 24 times multiple?

[SPEAKER_01]: It's not bad.

[SPEAKER_01]: For a name that has just consistent cash flow, it once again, a more protected economic mode.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's what you need here.

[SPEAKER_01]: You need companies that have an economic mode that is sustainable.

[SPEAKER_01]: in this era.

[SPEAKER_01]: And there are a lot of names that I don't think will be.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think part of the cell-off in AI is justified.

[SPEAKER_01]: Sorry, in software.

[SPEAKER_01]: Part of the cell-off in software has been justified.

[SPEAKER_01]: But there have been a lot of babies being thrown out with the bath water.

[SPEAKER_01]: But there are more of these names that are the bath water and not the babies, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: And so you want to be identifying those babies to me of those three service now is the one that is the one worth saving.

[SPEAKER_01]: Shall we say?

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, that about does it?

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm Justin Klantin, appreciate you all tuning in to this latest episode of Investock in and remind you.

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