[SPEAKER_02]: Hello, everybody.

[SPEAKER_02]: Jay, take you for Jeff Ponds.

[SPEAKER_02]: Ian Cunderle, Baseball, America, Prospect, podcast, and today, we're going to talk about some of the day views.

[SPEAKER_02]: We now have 2026 MLB, drafty hitters.

[SPEAKER_02]: making their debuts who have played enough to us, we can talk about it.

[SPEAKER_02]: Picture wise, okay, we're not gonna really talk about Cameron Flooky.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's pretty much the list.

[SPEAKER_02]: If you say, there are two pictures in the top 100 picks who have made appearance in an official game.

[SPEAKER_02]: So we're gonna really focus on the hitters today cause there are a lot more hitters than it of that.

[SPEAKER_02]: But,

[SPEAKER_02]: We will start this with kind of a little bit of a sad story, which is Ian was down to see Greenville versus Winston Salem last week.

[SPEAKER_02]: I was going to get to see Rochelowski, a number pick in person and did not get to see Roch, but we got to, did you get to see him was Ian the dugout?

[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, he was not not wearing uniform.

[SPEAKER_00]: He was wearing a he looked he was wearing quarter zips Some nice team issued quarter zips that was as much as I saw a virtual ask he had

[SPEAKER_00]: I think I saw I'm signing some autographs too.

[SPEAKER_00]: So that was it.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, it was a little, little disappointing.

[SPEAKER_00]: Going down to Greenville is one of my favorite favorite trips of the year.

[SPEAKER_00]: So that worked out well in the sense they got to see the Red Sox first two picks.

[SPEAKER_00]: They are Jake Schaffner and Owen Hall and was hoping to see and scheduled at base to see Brock Jelavsky also.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then Brock did not play his season and they announced it finally on Saturday something that seemed inevitable after they kept pushing back a return date.

[SPEAKER_00]: They shut him down for the season with a wrist soreness seems like kind of just, and this is one of the things with the timing of the draft, which I know teams have complained about is, you know, these college guys, especially those who get bounced early in the NCAA tournament, they're done, you know, for two months basically.

[SPEAKER_00]: And it's just hard to ramp fully back up, especially for some of the hitters, which I think it is what makes it really tricky after the draft for evaluation.

[SPEAKER_02]: I was going to say, not just especially for the hitters.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's why if you want to say why we've had two pictures and the top hundred picks make appearances.

[SPEAKER_02]: I've talked to teams where they're like, we think that the most dangerous thing we could do is try to ramp a college pitcher who's pitched in it back from down back to up.

[SPEAKER_02]: And they're like, we're just not going to do it.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, yeah, I wasn't even thinking about the pictures as far as I'm concerned pictures don't exist until the following year after the draft, because for the reasons you said, but yeah, that's fair.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I think that, you know, it was disappointing.

[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, Brock has been one of the guys that I know I've got some questions about.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's obviously had his struggles in pro ball so far, but, you know, if with risk orness being at play here, I think that could go a long way to explain his struggles, because obviously, you know, we've seen at the major level of help,

[SPEAKER_00]: So, I think, you know, with Rock, his final line for the season.

[SPEAKER_00]: A 167 average, 326 OVP, 333, Slug, and 46 plate appearances.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's kind of a right off now.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, I think it's going to be, and he's going to be a fascinating guy to discuss this off season for the top 100, given we have this small pro ball sample, and then we also have his great college career.

[SPEAKER_00]: kind of weighing that will be a very interesting discussion, but yeah, I know it's always very disappointing, but at the same time, you know, it's always great to see baseball at person.

[SPEAKER_00]: So we made the most of it.

[SPEAKER_00]: And there was some other guys that stood out that we won't be discussing because they're not your affees, but I would just say JJ has added some names to the light sox top 30 that are some very good polls.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm glad to see that Ellie Brown, you know, Eli, Eli Brown, Eli, Eli, Eli, Eli is our Ellie Ben Perat works for us, but Eli that's, and Ellie's done that to me, and I'll see that and say, you know, but Eli Brown is a Mercer's own someone who's milled towards that, you know.

[SPEAKER_02]: Walk around there.

[SPEAKER_02]: You can come for anywhere.

[SPEAKER_02]: So, okay, but with that being kind of the starting point, let's kind of throw into

[SPEAKER_02]: What have we seen so far?

[SPEAKER_02]: Jeff, what are we seeing?

[SPEAKER_02]: What is like, what, you know, like, is there someone who really jumps out to you?

[SPEAKER_02]: You are watching M.I.L.B every night like I am, but is there someone who stands out to you?

[SPEAKER_02]: One or two players are like, okay, it's very early, but this is encouraging.

[SPEAKER_01]: Sure.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think, you know, we'll see over the next couple of weeks regarding the high school drafties, you know, the highest sort of debuted drafties that we've actually seen a decent amount of as it's primarily Eric Booth Jr.

[SPEAKER_01]: who's gotten in like a decent amount of play to appearances.

[SPEAKER_01]: Grady Emerson, obviously, just debuted, Trevor Condon, got a few at bats last week for Palm Beach.

[SPEAKER_01]: Jacob Blumbard has actually played a decent amount.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think has, you know, shown some power, that's been impressive.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's hard to take away a lot.

[SPEAKER_01]: from some of these early performances, especially from power for conference hitters in A-Ball.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I mean, like you could call out a Logan Hughes, who's looked really good.

[SPEAKER_01]: Duber started slow, and it's really started to pick up the pace, he's put up some impressive numbers to date, Justin LeBron, of course, who I think was on our hot sheet this week, he's got five home runs already over 49 plate appearances as a professional.

[SPEAKER_01]: pretty good home run right there.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's still striking out at a decent clip, but isn't the high high aid mid-west league.

[SPEAKER_01]: So there is some decent quality of competition there, but I think the questions and a lot of these hitters, especially the first round or top 60-type players that have debuted, isn't going to be what they do in Abel.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's going to be the challenge of AA and then

[SPEAKER_01]: with more advanced, more talented pitching than they've ever seen, whether they were SEC guys like a Chris Acopy and who I saw a couple weeks back in Hudson Valley, who's a, you know, big ten to then SEC guy who's in high A, you know, his numbers have been

[SPEAKER_01]: Like not great, okay, you know, it's quality of bats or whatever, but I don't know.

[SPEAKER_01]: So far, I think there's maybe some guys that stick out if you're, if you're just kind of stat line chasing, you know, you'll see the numbers that ace Reese is put up so far.

[SPEAKER_01]: That shouldn't be a shock, I think, to anybody who's followed the draft followed college baseball.

[SPEAKER_01]: Ace Reese spent one year at Houston, but then, you know, two years in the SEC, and was one of the premier power hitters in college baseball last year, him beaten up on Cowley competition is just not a shock at all to me, and it's kind of the same with

[SPEAKER_01]: with Logan Hughes.

[SPEAKER_01]: I will say the guy that I'm going to beat the drum on a little bit here, he's somebody that I wrote up in a fantasy article actually right after the draft when we did our fantasy rankings for the draft, he needs for the FYPD list, was Elliot Licell,

[SPEAKER_01]: As of yesterday, I'd have to check yesterday's game logs, see if he had another whiff.

[SPEAKER_01]: He had I think five walks to just one swing and miss over his first week in the low way.

[SPEAKER_01]: So he's really hit really speedy, really athletic.

[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe there's some predictable fringe average to average power there could be a really exciting player.

[SPEAKER_01]: So if I had to call out one guy who I've been impressed with so far

[SPEAKER_02]: So that's what we want to get into here is this that balance that we're getting to.

[SPEAKER_02]: And kind of what can you look for?

[SPEAKER_02]: What do we maybe have access to analytically to kind of take a little further deep dive into?

[SPEAKER_02]: And what is kind of like, but let's be careful and give some cautionary tales as well.

[SPEAKER_02]: We'll do that right after this quick break.

[SPEAKER_02]: So Ian, what, when we are talking,

[SPEAKER_02]: It ranges from, we've got some guys who are at 50 plate appearances, we've got some guys who are at 10.

[SPEAKER_02]: Obviously, the same thing that applies when we were talking on podcasts in April, right?

[SPEAKER_02]: You don't want to go overboard over,

[SPEAKER_02]: 50 plate appearances at any stretch in the season right.

[SPEAKER_02]: If you're doing that right now, let me just tell you Ralphie Velasquez is the greatest hitter that's ever lived because Ralphie Velasquez is on a heater in August at Triple A.

[SPEAKER_02]: He leads our hot shake this week that is just absurd.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yes, 14 homers this month.

[SPEAKER_02]: Uh, you know, and it's that's through August 23rd.

[SPEAKER_02]: So he could get to

[SPEAKER_02]: 16, 17, 18, 20.

[SPEAKER_02]: This one.

[SPEAKER_02]: But that doesn't mean that Ralphie Velasquez, that that is different.

[SPEAKER_02]: Like, you don't weigh that more than you do.

[SPEAKER_02]: The previous three months for Velasquez were four months of Velasquez, I would say.

[SPEAKER_02]: But what is it that can be pulled from what we've seen so far with these threaties?

[SPEAKER_00]: Um, I think the first thing is just just getting to see how their swings and things like that translate against professional pitching and I think someone I saw last week, oh, and hull is a really good example of that because hull was someone who had some ground ball issues in college and.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's been magnified, I think, in the pro so far.

[SPEAKER_00]: With that said, he's still performing very well, because when he hits the ball in the air, he usually hits a very hard.

[SPEAKER_00]: And he still, the good things that he showed in college, he was still doing flashes.

[SPEAKER_00]: But when you watch them play, you kind of get a little bit.

[SPEAKER_00]: You see that there are adjustments to be made, and you realize that a lot of teams are not going to make those adjustments until the off season.

[SPEAKER_00]: They usually let guys come into parole with doing the same thing they did

[SPEAKER_00]: And so I think it gives you like a good base to build on, but at the same time it lets you see like with some of my call like there's going to be a swing change needed here without a doubt because I think he's running close to like a 65% ground ball rate and pro ball so far that's just not sustainable and it's something that the Red Sox will work.

[SPEAKER_00]: like work to figure out throughout the offseason, but I think you get to see, you know, how does what what is the guy we saw in college and how does that translate against pro pitching and what are the areas they need to build on for the following in the offseason heading into their first full professional season in 2027.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's the most important thing and it's why, you know, you need a little bit of a bigger sample as you said, you know, we're about a 50 plate appearances, 60 plate appearances in for some guys and especially with the guys in the low way, you're basically facing complex level pitching at this point in the season.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, there's more of I think of a sample there because he's he's been playing for a while, you know, he's had multiple full weeks that scouts have been able to see him.

[SPEAKER_00]: And he's someone I think that that for a late first round pic looks like a pretty nice find, you know, his surface level numbers are good is underlying data is pretty good like that's someone I think I have we have more of a sample size and more to go off of.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then you compare that with someone like what Jeff was highlighting with the Canadian high school or Lacell.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, you know, it's a week.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's really interesting, but you want to see a little bit more of that.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I think it's really just, you know, seeing how guys translate from what they were doing college against pro competition and giving you an idea of the things they need to work on heading into their first full off season and the things to build on because

[SPEAKER_00]: Ultimately, there's going to be a lot of adjustments made between now and then.

[SPEAKER_00]: We talk about them more with the pitching side, because a lot of these pictures we're not going to see and they come back next off season and then next spring and they're going to be throwing different pitches.

[SPEAKER_00]: They're going to add a VLO.

[SPEAKER_00]: I feel like on the hitting side, we forget that the hitters also are allowed to make adjustments.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's something that kind of getting that baseline and you look at some of the performances I said,

[SPEAKER_00]: He's not a great this season, you know, he's getting on base, but the EVs have not translated I think the same ways, but then you look at it's like, oh, he's got a, you know, 13% in zone miss in a 20% chase rate like.

[SPEAKER_00]: I still have confidence that that guy's going to be a really good hit or so I think it's just it's you don't want to read too much and do it but at the same time if there's clear deficiencies especially as we get the sample gets larger I think that's something that you can really identify and hone in on

[SPEAKER_02]: That kind of leads me Jeff to kind of something you brought up, which is, is I kind of will tie this into what we don't want to overreact to, which is a case of let's take the case of tape Susan seeing from last year, right, if we were talking at this time last year and when we were talking in the off season.

[SPEAKER_02]: There was nothing positive about Sioux seems pro debut.

[SPEAKER_02]: Like the straight, flat, normal statistical data, the underlying analytical data, the eye test, everything looked pretty bad.

[SPEAKER_02]: But to what Ian just said, I think that this is where I would caution anyone about overreacting, that's a bad start.

[SPEAKER_02]: but to what he just said, this is kind of, that kind of gave the braves and suficing kind of an offseason to do list, did it not?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think it did.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think, you know, you also sort of get into a situation where,

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, we don't know what guys are dealing with, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: We don't know if there was maybe a slight injury, there was potentially some sort of, you know, adjustment underway, something that they worked and these guys going to sort of, you know, post draft type of camps, bridge league, that sort of thing.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's all, you know, somewhat informal.

[SPEAKER_01]: But they're they're working typically at whatever the team they're with their their complex for a few days a week and there might be like an automatic adjustment that you know they're scouts and player development people and everyone that was involved.

[SPEAKER_01]: and making a decision to draft and then sign this guy, there might be something like automatically they're like, we're trying to work on this.

[SPEAKER_01]: And they might almost sort of put them out into a position to fail a little bit or just struggle a little bit.

[SPEAKER_01]: Just to get some of that game feel like that's all part of

[SPEAKER_01]: improving is failing, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: We hear about the beneficial way to do it.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's a way to help players get by in.

[SPEAKER_01]: Exactly, but I think I think it's also just something that fans and people that sort of stat watch or watch or follow the minor leagues, it can kind of get lost in the shuffle because not everybody does struggle out of the gate, but South of scene is sort of a perfect example.

[SPEAKER_01]: because I think if you do look at last year's numbers, the EVs were actually pretty good.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's obviously 66-plate appearances, so it's not a noisy number, but he had a 105.490F.

[SPEAKER_01]: The real concerning stuff was the underlying swing and miss issues and some of that stuff that kind of really dragged down the numbers.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so, you look at the statistical data, you look at the underlying data, you look at the performance and you're like, all right, like, is he selling out for power?

[SPEAKER_01]: And then, you know, you come to find out a year later that it was a really good trade-off

[SPEAKER_01]: some of the best numbers of any of the high school players in the class and I would argue from my money might be the biggest surprise of that high school class a year later.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you can't take too much away.

[SPEAKER_01]: The other side of the coin is someone like Ethan Fry, who had a phenomenal debut, put a very big EVs, the underlying numbers were good.

[SPEAKER_01]: I was getting some feedback internally as well as a little bit externally that, hey, maybe there's a chance this guy is,

[SPEAKER_01]: a decent fill-in in center and above average coin or outfield they're, you know, fast forward a year later and, you know, Fry has not put up the same sort of numbers that he put up the previous season.

[SPEAKER_01]: They've gotten a little bit better.

[SPEAKER_01]: They've improved second half of the year.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's kind of bounced back as he's been healthy.

[SPEAKER_01]: But that was kind of the story of Brian College.

[SPEAKER_01]: Is he dealt with injuries?

[SPEAKER_01]: There were times that he would struggle kind of before or after and then would bounce back eventually.

[SPEAKER_01]: So he has bounced back.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think like from a statistical standpoint, the numbers look fine right now as it today.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's 288, I think 377.

[SPEAKER_01]: 468.

[SPEAKER_01]: But if I go to this first half stats with Fry, they're really, really bad.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, he was a guy that was like on the sort of cusp or the precipice of being a top 100 prospect and has kind of knocked back now that I think he's probably more in that like 200 to like 250 to 75 kind of range.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, another one is, is Dax Kilbe, I'll, I'll shut up and let Ian dig into that one if you want to, um, but there's always examples of guys that I think you can overreact to get just you can buy into the hype and the excitement and the performance after the draft and be the cause could be a steel, um, you want to be first on a guy and then ultimately that can kind of lead you a stray at times.

[SPEAKER_02]: So, Ian, yeah, if we were talking at this time, well, we were, but if you were, if you go back and find, if we talked about that, that's kill be and takes us to scene on a podcast or in pieces at baseball America last.

[SPEAKER_02]: into season off season.

[SPEAKER_02]: There was no way that those two guys were going to be compared in any way as being similar because again, you kind of go off what you've seen, go off what they're doing.

[SPEAKER_02]: And at that point, Dex killed me.

[SPEAKER_02]: The reports we were getting on Dex killed me were very loud.

[SPEAKER_02]: His season has been really kind of I would say ruined by injury, kind of going back to what Jeff was just saying there.

[SPEAKER_02]: But at the same time, those two players are much closer together.

[SPEAKER_02]: If you talk about Dex killed me, take suficing, then we would have ever considered at this time

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, 100% and I think it also is a good example to of which I've talked about with the noiseiness with some data when you're looking at it because.

[SPEAKER_00]: Kill B last year and his pro debut, his 90th EV was 104.2.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, the contact rates were like really, really good.

[SPEAKER_00]: Angles were poor and that's remained an issue this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: But you look and you know, he still has a small sample this year, but his EVs are actually down like two, his 90th is down almost two miles an hour this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: We'll see where that level's out because he's still, he's actually, I think it's right around the same number of played appearances this year is last year.

[SPEAKER_00]: But you know, we're still, that's the kind of stuff that, you know, it's easy to over react to in a small sample and now it's and again, maybe we're doing that now because we don't have enough data with on him yet because he's as JJ said he's missed a circle time with injuries, but.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, sometimes especially with the high school kids, it can take a little bit longer for them to kind of put it together.

[SPEAKER_00]: And South of season's case, he's kind of figured it out in his first full pro season.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, you look at some other guys digging like Sean Gamble with their royals.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, you know, they've just kind of, it's just been a struggling entire season.

[SPEAKER_00]: And with Kilbi, it's just been injuries, but since he's been back, you know, it's been good, but I don't think it's been kind of the level or the expectations that were set based on his previous season.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that's where, you know, if he can, if he hadn't had that season, I don't think anyone would be really that like disappointed in what he's done this year if that makes sense.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, it's a guy first full proceeds and he's going to have what if he is OPS is around 800 this year, you know, it's a lot of walks on a ton of power.

[SPEAKER_00]: But still, you know, it's been, uh, it's been very solid.

[SPEAKER_00]: And if, but he came in with high expectations, because as you said, you know, he had that, that debut.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that's where I think it's tricky.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, you have to expectation manage.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I look at, you know, this year's class.

[SPEAKER_00]: And you look at some of the guys like ACE research, for example, ACE research numbers are not you right now.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's hitting over 400, then you look at his data.

[SPEAKER_00]: And it's like, eh?

[SPEAKER_00]: It's fine, you know, there's nothing really that special about it and it's, you know, it's one of those things where if he if he finishes the season hitting around there, you know, I think there will be a lot of hype on him going in the year and it's maybe it should be tempered because you know, this is a guy who I think in college, you know, who's known for hitting ball extremely hard hasn't really done that in pro ball and the contact rates are.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, very generic.

[SPEAKER_00]: I would say right now.

[SPEAKER_00]: So it's like, you know, what is the real ace resources at the guy who's putting the numbers, you know, the 400 over 400 average, some big slug.

[SPEAKER_00]: Right now, or is it the guy who's underline data doesn't really line up with kind of the profile you heard coming out of college?

[SPEAKER_02]: So it's like, you're going to meet a little bit in the middle, won't they?

[SPEAKER_02]: Like, I think that, like, almost basically is analytical data go up and is statistical data go down because that's probably a little bit more of the underlying players.

[SPEAKER_00]: Exactly.

[SPEAKER_00]: But it's so it's like, but if you, you know, if you were, if we were ranking or if you're, you're looking at just the numbers, you're like, waste, racist, got to be one of the biggest rises in the draft class right now.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's like,

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if I go there yet, you know, it's I think we need to see more.

[SPEAKER_00]: So it's it's just balancing, you know, the small sample size, you know, reactions, but at the same time, it's just that you don't want to overreact to negatively if the guys struggles because we just don't know what they're going on behind the scenes, like even as we talked about with rocket to get you off the show.

[SPEAKER_00]: We now know that he was battling wrist soreness and wasn't really able to fully get back to the playing shape he was at the beginning of the season at UCLA.

[SPEAKER_00]: So that goes a long way to explaining in his struggles, I would say, but we'll see, you know, could it could that, you know, kind of just be.

[SPEAKER_00]: Could there also be some other things going on?

[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe we don't know, and that's where we're going to find out next season with someone like him.

[SPEAKER_02]: The other point that you both made is when it comes to I do think that and you don't want to go overboard on this, but level that a player play it plays that is significant, especially when it comes to college players, a college player putting up numbers in low A right now does feel a little bit like kind of like, you know, like window dressing like it's not something that you look at and say, oh,

[SPEAKER_02]: Wow, that, that, that, that they view in the lower rate, that that is not a level where those hitters should be finding it to be particularly difficult.

[SPEAKER_02]: But the flip side of that when we've looked at it, like I looked at stats through this point each of the last five draft right so 21 22 23 24 25 and.

[SPEAKER_02]: The one thing that does stand out if you're looking at any kind of signal, and I'm not saying it is perfect, but if you're just trying to like, at home, what can I go in, especially by the end of the season, even if you include the angels in this, who has, they've gone away from it, but we're kind of historically, like at this point, no one's channel is already up in the big leagues, which is still remarkable to remember from his draft year, but if you look at the guys who play in high A,

[SPEAKER_02]: a few who get to double A.

[SPEAKER_02]: That kind of tells you something I would say a little bit underlying here because if you have a hitter,

[SPEAKER_02]: who you think kind of comes in and you're looking at them and you're going, ooh, this is what we were hoping for.

[SPEAKER_02]: You're not sitting that player to hi-a.

[SPEAKER_02]: You don't have to, there's no expectation that even a college drafty has to get the hi-a in this year.

[SPEAKER_02]: And so if you look at it, especially I would say, you know, hate to say it, but if you're an eighth round pick, if you're a 12th round pick and you're in hi-a or AA, it may be more that you're filling the spot that needs to be filled.

[SPEAKER_02]: when you look at like last year's class and it's like, okay, who are the guys who were, these were the guys who are already in high A by this point last year among top 100 picks.

[SPEAKER_02]: I've our cat, Mary Custon, Andrew Fisher, Cam Canorella, Brandon Compton, Alex Ludis, Max Belieu, Henry Godbell, Kyle Ludis, Ethan Hedges, Easton Carmichael Cody Miller.

[SPEAKER_02]: and Caden Camp was at 103.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now, I'm not saying all of those are top prospects now, but that is something where there's I would say, there's a little bit of signal there, same thing the year before, okay, who are the guys who are in high A or about or double A, double A was Nick Kurtz and Christian Moore.

[SPEAKER_02]: Nick Kurtz being in double A at this point already, I would say there was kind of a sign there

[SPEAKER_02]: The A's know that they can move this guy fast, but that was Bazana Charlie Condon, Nick Kurtz, Jack Hagleon, Christian Moore James Tibs, Kailin Colpepper, Walker Yannick, Malcolm Moore, Blake Burke, Jacob Cose Art, Dylan Dryling, Colmesine, Engage Miller.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now again, not every one of those is in not being a stud prospect, a couple of those catchers have had some ups and downs as far as hitters, but there are more guys there that you would go, okay, branding, compting, camcorder, all our guys who you're like, you feel even better about them now than you did then.

[SPEAKER_02]: Brandon Compton's been, well I say that Rafi Velasquez has been one of the hottest hitters in the world in the last couple months.

[SPEAKER_02]: Brandon Compton also fits on that.

[SPEAKER_02]: I talked about tale of two seasons between what he was in high A and now what he's been in double like, but so what we're saying here is this there's these little glimmers of information Jeff, there's these little snippets out there,

[SPEAKER_02]: Man, there's so much you are picking out little pieces of information out of a whole lot of noise, a whole lot of of kind of trash data almost at this point.

[SPEAKER_02]: And so we're saying, be cautious, aren't we?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think that's the biggest thing.

[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, I think there's also this whole segment of the population that's sort of isn't unknown.

[SPEAKER_01]: Some high school drafts, the ease and the position side that don't debut.

[SPEAKER_01]: We talked about the pictures and the amount of college pictures that don't debut.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of high school guys that won't debut until probably may.

[SPEAKER_01]: Some of them, you may not even see in the backfields all that often.

[SPEAKER_01]: And there's this whole period of development that I think is maybe one of the most important stretches of time in a young players career and probably player development's time.

[SPEAKER_01]: player plans, things that they want to work on, you know, with pitchers it might be, you know, getting to the plate faster, could be something small, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: It could be some mechanical adjustment that they think will yield, you know, more miles per hour across their arsenal, more spin, maybe, you know, working on a different pitch and movement, et cetera.

[SPEAKER_01]: And for hitters, it could be kind of, you know,

[SPEAKER_01]: reworking this wing like a or kind of a complete overhaul.

[SPEAKER_01]: If we saw that with Connor Griffin and we know what the results were coming out of that period into 2025 and then what he did to ascend to the number one prospect of baseball.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's probably not all that dissimilar from what we saw with Roman Anthony a few years prior

[SPEAKER_01]: What were the extra camps called in 2020?

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm totally drawn to blank right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: Alternate site, alternate sites.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, the work that he did at the alternate site, Bobby Wood Jr., they talked about the work that he did at the alternate site, how that kind of catapulted him up.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think there's these periods of time where player development can really dig in.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's no stake, there's nothing at stake.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, you can go out there and you can fail, you can work every day, make adjustments, get stronger, get better, get quicker, whatever it is.

[SPEAKER_01]: They have the ability to do that over this period of time.

[SPEAKER_01]: And we'll really get to evaluate these guys next spring.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, once they get into some formal games, whether that's on the back fields, even that can be tricky, but really over that first month to five to six weeks of the season, which really gives us a good snippet and, you know, data at that point over that period starts to stabilize a little bit and we get a much better feel for what type of players these guys are on the hitting and on the pitching side.

[SPEAKER_02]: I would say that to kind of kick it back to you and I think that y'all both had on something more important here, which is that one of the things also to kind of when we say about be careful don't overreact here, there are players who kind of getting dominated, struggling.

[SPEAKER_02]: right now.

[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe the best thing that ever happens to this far as their pro careers because I'm very much like if you ask me one of the things that I always struggle with is when a team believes something's going to be a problem for a player instead of they try to fix it before it's become a problem.

[SPEAKER_02]: because I think it's a lot of times everyone's human.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's hard to have buy in for something that's worked for you.

[SPEAKER_02]: You got drafted high, whatever it is.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's like you were a great college player.

[SPEAKER_02]: You're a great high school player.

[SPEAKER_02]: And then you come in and ride away.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's like, oh, we need to change that.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's not going to work in Pro Bowl.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's very different than if you go to bridge league or you go to low a or you go to high a and you have a flaw that is kind of continually exposed to you.

[SPEAKER_02]: Well, then you're in a different mindset then you're receptive to it of okay, let's get to work now because yes, I see that I have this problem to and I would say if you've come as been like, hey, go out and do your thing like you talked about it and.

[SPEAKER_02]: Go on, do your thing, but we also think that down the road, we may want to work with you on this.

[SPEAKER_02]: It kind of builds a little bit of a trust between player and his new organization to kind of tell you like, oh, they've made to have an idea of what they're doing.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I know that you probably have multiple examples in your head of guys who kind of had to go through that.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, I just think it's very hard because you think about it, even the guys drafted and like the fourth fifth round, a lot of them have been the best player on their teams, you know, throughout their career going back to one little league even, you know, especially, you know, in high school and then in college, you know, depending on where they went, if they're more of like a smaller school, they're probably the best player if they were.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, they went to one of the power five schools, then you know, they're obviously on a very good competitive team for the most part so a lot of these guys just haven't failed and I think that's one of the hardest things and I know several like player development people have said this to me is one of the things we have to teach players is how to fail because a lot of them just don't know how to do it when they get to pro ball.

[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, especially now when you're going from the metal baps, some of these guys haven't really swung with wood unless they've played in the Cape Cod League or one of the other wood bat leagues.

[SPEAKER_00]: High schoolers, you know, just don't have a ton of experience with wood and with how metal bats are playing these days.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, it's just a very different thing.

[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, what worked with metal doesn't necessarily work with wood.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think as you said, it's a lot easier for a player to come to you and say, okay, this is not working.

[SPEAKER_00]: Let's figure it out versus the flip side of hey, you know, we want to change what you know, you were the Mount West player there just picking some random conference, which and we want to, but we want to completely change your swing now that we've drafted you.

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, why would you do that?

[SPEAKER_00]: I was just, I've had success my entire career.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, it's a lot of easier once someone struggles to do that.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think, you know, looking, looking back, like, I think, back to Theo Gillian after the draft.

[SPEAKER_00]: Theo Gillian came out who's one of the, you know, the best pure hitting prospects, was seen as one of the best pure hitting prospects in high school draft.

[SPEAKER_00]: Get 154's first pro season.

[SPEAKER_00]: It was really small sample.

[SPEAKER_00]: It was like 10 games or something, 13 games.

[SPEAKER_00]: But, um,

[SPEAKER_00]: 154, you know, his second year even, he was good, not great, you know, this year finally the explosion has happened.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that's the thing is, you know, this development, it can be incremental gains like guys are going to develop a different rates and I think, you know, it all goes back to though, it's starting with that first season and building off of that first season, whether it be as you said, playing in games like gill and did or, you know, going to the race and other examples, someone like Cooper Fleming Cooper Fleming didn't play any games after his debut.

[SPEAKER_00]: He went to the bridge league.

[SPEAKER_00]: worked really hard in the bridge league.

[SPEAKER_00]: They made some tweaks there.

[SPEAKER_00]: Then the offseason yet, you know, 10, 12 pounds of muscle.

[SPEAKER_00]: And all of a sudden, he was ready for probal and what is he done in probal is hit the entire season.

[SPEAKER_00]: And where was that work done?

[SPEAKER_00]: That work was done in the bridge league.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then in the offseason behind the scenes, not a lot of people are seeing it.

[SPEAKER_00]: You contrast that with someone like as you said, South of Seed, South of Seed, we saw a play.

[SPEAKER_00]: He had a 40% strike I rate last year.

[SPEAKER_00]: What happened this offseason?

[SPEAKER_00]: made some changes for this swing changed his body a little bit and boom he comes into this process and much more ready to handle it you know every player is going to develop differently but the key is this this this is the formative period where it's identifying those flaws and getting the buy in from the player because that is the hardest part ultimately is you know if

[SPEAKER_00]: pd and player or not seeing eye to eye on these things.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's going to be really difficult to accomplish the changes and that's a seri for player to reach their potential.

[SPEAKER_00]: But if you go out there and you have got struggling a little bit and they come and they're ready to make those changes, it just makes everything a lot easier.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that's why I think, you know, or the full site is obviously some guys are just going to come and perform the entire time.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, Nick Kurtz's JJ said a great example of that.

[SPEAKER_00]: Nick Kurtz, they didn't really have to do much there.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, he got to pro ball.

[SPEAKER_00]: He flew through easing in the majors.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's one of the best players in baseball now.

[SPEAKER_00]: pretty simple.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I think that, yeah, it's just a very, you know, it's a very important time and it's just about getting the buy-in and there's going to be some struggles, there's going to be some ups, there's going to be some downs, but ultimately, you know, this is all part of the process and trying to get to everyone, get to reach their ultimate goal, which is obviously making the big leagues and becoming an impact player there.

[SPEAKER_02]: And that's the thing we've got to remember of all this is it is a process and it is not something that happens unless you are no one's annual it does not happen overnight and there are ups and downs along that way, but this is what we love doing is is one of the challenges is is cleaning trying to let you all know through our reporting through our analysis through our everything we can do.

[SPEAKER_02]: Highlight, who's, okay, this is actually worth paying attention to this player's made a step forward, this player's not as good so far as we think.

[SPEAKER_02]: The challenge is to do that, but the same time not do that too soon.

[SPEAKER_02]: Jeff, I'll give you kind of the final word with this is, how do you think like, kind of you've been doing this quite a while?

[SPEAKER_02]: How does that gotten, is it gotten easier?

[SPEAKER_02]: Is it gotten more difficult or have you just learned through the process of doing it year after year to kind of

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think it has to be on like a case by case basis, you know, you still don't want to like completely eliminate it but I think it's probably less important than you you want it to be so that's kind of what you have to fight on the other side of the you know the coin with that conversation we do write a handbook and that work.

[SPEAKER_01]: typically starts within the next couple of months.

[SPEAKER_01]: And those top ten lists will be up.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, you know, it's still the fall, quite the winner yet.

[SPEAKER_01]: So we do have to react to the information that we have.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think with a lot of high school players,

[SPEAKER_01]: using wood bats for the first time.

[SPEAKER_01]: We have to just kind of temper it between the two.

[SPEAKER_01]: You don't want to completely ignore a bad debut.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's why we update these reports.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's why we write new reports every year.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's why, you know, we do updated rankings and risers and followers posts and all that stuff.

[SPEAKER_01]: What four or five times a year now, because there are changes that are made.

[SPEAKER_01]: There

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, really perform a Boston Smith, for example, those have been a few different organizations now he's actually the statistically the best hitter from the 2025 draft class right now the best high school hitter is someone like just so I a heart soreness who who I had pretty high I probably didn't obviously have high enough.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I was going off a high school video because he was another guy, you know, that that didn't debut.

[SPEAKER_01]: Your Sire Raxdale has made significant changes from the guy that he was at Boston College and before that, so who he's been this season?

[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, now a guy that's in AA with the Cardinals and looks like,

[SPEAKER_01]: a real big league or Murf Gray was a guy that we knew could hit a little bit.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's really performed Brandon Compton has been, you know, phenomenal among that draft class.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's just kind of funny, like you don't want to read too much into debuts and I think maybe even with the following season,

[SPEAKER_01]: you can see guys trending in the right direction.

[SPEAKER_01]: You still probably want to temper expectations, uh, because there's another adjustment period here coming off of a successful first minor league season, having to go into a full off season and have maybe a little bit more focused work, maybe it's a little bit more in your own, maybe you're being coached a little bit less depends on the organization.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think all that stuff matters, you know, and I think the big thing that I keep learning from day after day is, you know, the goal here is to identify the best big leaders and not the guys that, you know, we're going to put up the best statistics in the minor weeks.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's a good way to wrap it up here on the baseball America Prospect podcast for this week.

[SPEAKER_02]: A lot more over at baseballamerican.com.

[SPEAKER_02]: Got a fun story on working.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think a lot of you all will be interested in about 2026 minor league baseball coming up later this week.

[SPEAKER_02]: I know that Jeff has a piece that already just posted as we're recording this, it'll be up.

[SPEAKER_02]: for a couple of days by the time you get this podcast about kind of just the differences between the double eyeball and below and the big league ball and how that affects pictures.

[SPEAKER_02]: Ian is rolling along with he just had a piece out there of several pieces last week of guys to check out like that are kind of maybe knock on the door of the top hundred and check that out.

[SPEAKER_02]: a lot more over at baseball american dot com speaking of we talked about like some of these guys are having great finish the season check out the the hot sheet the baseball america hot sheet on uh baseball america dot com because we had a lot of those guys on the this week uh Ryan says a reenie another guy who brand and compton for how people ask us guys who are really finishing strong uh all on there on the hot sheet this week so for Jeff for Ian i'm JJ so long everybody