[SPEAKER_01]: Welcome back to another baseball America prospect podcast.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is your host, Jeff Ponce alongside me as always is my co-host typically in the host seat JJ Cooper, but we got a huge as expose breakdown, a in depth.

[SPEAKER_01]: reporting article coming out from JJ this week that's going to look at the minor league run environment, which for I think anybody who's tracked this throughout the season, it's been a little preposterous.

[SPEAKER_01]: We've seen higher scoring games night after night, throughout the season at a rate that I can't remember and I've been watching minor league baseball since I was yay highware in a sailor suit.

[SPEAKER_01]: So JJ, talk me through it a little bit,

[SPEAKER_01]: what's going on in the minor leagues this season and then we can get into the causes and etc.

[SPEAKER_00]: As you said, you've noticed it, I've noticed it.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you're paying attention, I think everyone's noticed it.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I will say, I don't think it's easy to fully understand how crazy this season is, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: We are now in a time where depending on how long you've been a baseball fan, you're used to the offensive environment going up and down.

[SPEAKER_00]: In the major leagues, we've had, oh, the balls are hot this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, the balls are not hot this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: That back and forth, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: But when we say that the miners this year are not like the miners we've seen in other years, it's 5.4 runs per game per team.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, that may sound like, oh, that sounds pretty high.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's preposterously high by the standards of the normal, minor league baseball environment.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, if you say that we've seen those kind of run environments in the Pacific coast league, sure.

[SPEAKER_00]: Reno to, you know, Las Vegas places like that.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you want to say that back when the colleague had high desert and had Lancaster and like that, oh yeah, we would see games where it's like 24 to 20, you know, okay.

[SPEAKER_00]: Those were those were always kind of isolated incidents.

[SPEAKER_00]: O Lancaster, the wind was blowing 40 miles an hour out tonight.

[SPEAKER_00]: Then you would also have the flip side of that, where it's like, well, anyone in the FSL get the 15 homers this year, you know?

[SPEAKER_00]: Like the Carolina League is anyone gonna hit 300 this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: You had a variety of environments, and it all kind of even now averaged out to a normal year, you would see like, you know, four, four and a half runs per game across the full season minors.

[SPEAKER_00]: And you would see

[SPEAKER_00]: 0.6.7 home runs per team per game like if you went to a game you're probably going to see a home run most nights you might see too.

[SPEAKER_00]: This year it's nothing like that.

[SPEAKER_00]: The the best way I can explain it is the only year in the major leagues.

[SPEAKER_00]: since the world's series started in 1903 that has had more run scored per game than we're seeing in the full season miners.

[SPEAKER_00]: Across the full season miners this year, is 1930, think Hack Wilson, think the team batting average, was league batting average 303, things like that.

[SPEAKER_00]: A year that was so preposterous that it's still remembered

[SPEAKER_00]: decades and decades later as like being this crazy outlier.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're seeing more run scored now.

[SPEAKER_00]: You can think about Martin McGuire and Sammy so sudden the chase for the home you can think of Barry Bonds all that.

[SPEAKER_00]: The steroid air and all that.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're seeing more runs per game in the miners this year than we saw then in the majors.

[SPEAKER_00]: And there's a key point that I think kind of gets lost on that.

[SPEAKER_00]: because it's really home run based, home runs are over one again, home runs are now at a major league home run rate in the minor leagues.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I'll kind of kick this back to you.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that where's easy to not fully fathom unless you're kind of crazy about how much you watch.

[SPEAKER_00]: That shouldn't happen in the minors, not because of anything other than a simple fact.

[SPEAKER_00]: These players are younger and not as strong as major league players.

[SPEAKER_00]: So to say that, oh, the FSL home run rate is now running at levels close to major league rate.

[SPEAKER_00]: To say that we're seeing that in low A and high A, that means we're seeing home run rates from 19 and 20 and 21 year olds that we see from 25, 26, 27 year olds.

[SPEAKER_00]: And yes, I am not saying that you can't see teenagers who are full built and all that.

[SPEAKER_00]: But we're talking across the expanse of the minor leagues.

[SPEAKER_00]: For every one of those guys who's six foot two, 220 as a 19 year old, there's somehow their shortstop who's six foot one, 160.

[SPEAKER_00]: And what we're seeing this year is home runs are up massively everywhere, but as we'll get into kind of the causes of this,

[SPEAKER_00]: They're only up below AAA.

[SPEAKER_00]: We'll get into that more in a minute.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's a very glaring clue to what we're seeing this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: But Jeff, I just want to ask you, you watch a lot of my early baseball.

[SPEAKER_00]: The way I would describe it is, is we also both watch a lot of college baseball.

[SPEAKER_00]: In college baseball with the bats,

[SPEAKER_00]: You're kind of, I would say, used to kind of the experience of the batter who's like sitting there and it's like, it's full of a little bit kind of reaches out and flicks this, you know, flicks, flicks his wrist and goes offo and then it's like, oh, that went out.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's not something I feel like I normally saw with the wood bats in the minor leagues, but I feel like I'm seeing that a lot this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: What is your experience when you're watching games in the minor league this year?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think that's the biggest thing.

[SPEAKER_01]: And it's not even just home runs.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like before we get into that, we'll get into that and a little bit, we'll talk about some more components of this conversation.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I think it's just, it's damage, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: Doubles, singles that are hit hard, stuff that's dropping more than it had previously, seems to travel a little bit more than it had previously.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think you had a perfect example of,

[SPEAKER_01]: a guy kind of shooting something off the end of the bat, whether he's fooled or sort of attacks and inside out of the ball.

[SPEAKER_01]: You're seeing a lot more of that stuff travel further, travel for damn, seem to come off the bat hotter.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's not just home runs, it could be doubles, it could be triple, something that gets to a gap.

[SPEAKER_01]: It could be single sometimes.

[SPEAKER_01]: It could be singles that just kind of, you know, kick

[SPEAKER_01]: carries a little bit more than it typically would.

[SPEAKER_01]: So there is some element going on there, where you're seeing a variety of types of hitters, doing damage on sort of these, haphazard swings, miss swings, sort of mid swing adjustments,

[SPEAKER_01]: that typically, you know, you're typically seeing flares off the bat, certainly there's some, you know, massive power guys that can maybe shoot a ball like that to the opposite field and drive it.

[SPEAKER_01]: And we're not even talking about Aaron judge.

[SPEAKER_01]: We could be talking about Yankele Fernandez at 19 years old.

[SPEAKER_00]: There's plenty of long code Jr.

[SPEAKER_01]: But don't necessarily make that kind of contact.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's a lot of those miss hits to me.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's always the big thing because we see.

[SPEAKER_01]: long pull side home runs.

[SPEAKER_01]: We see, you know, well hit balls and center field that travel and getting a feel between that ball would have been hit for 30 versus 40 or 40, you know, for 60 this year, whatever it might be.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that 20 to 30 feet on a ball that's hit well is kind of tough to gauge, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's for what I'm seeing is it's a lot of those miss hits.

[SPEAKER_01]: that are going further, and that was the first thing I saw when we started to suspect there was something fishy with the bats and college baseball years ago, where these mishits were carrying over the wall, and it was like, all right, what's changed here in terms of the equipment, what's different, and what's what's factoring into this run environment.

[SPEAKER_00]: way I would put it if you're a fan and you're watching games if you want to kind of understand this experience it.

[SPEAKER_00]: Watch the outfielders, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: And what I mean by that is you Jeff you just talked about it.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like Coney Blanco Jr has been on it terribly.

[SPEAKER_00]: I even joy watching his home runs for Hiagreensboro Pirates First Baseman massive powers.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know 120 EVs that is best.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's got as much raw powers as anyone on the game.

[SPEAKER_00]: We've written about that for a couple of years.

[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you please healthy this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: So we're getting to see him do it.

[SPEAKER_00]: Tony Blanco Jr. had a stretching bowling green where he was hitting balls out of the ballpark, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Like a couple weeks ago.

[SPEAKER_00]: And the outfielders, the ball would be hit.

[SPEAKER_00]: And the reaction of the outfielder would be like, one step, look up, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: The outfielders know, they see that ball off the bat.

[SPEAKER_00]: You see the pitcher react before he ever turns around, rados, I just gave up a home run.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, there's no question about it.

[SPEAKER_00]: There's no one in the park is going, did that get enough of it?

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, so that's one scenario.

[SPEAKER_00]: The no-douder that, I don't know, what park would that, you know, look at the hell that yellow stone.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like that kind of, you know, that kind of ball.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then the flip side of that is what we're seeing.

[SPEAKER_00]: I feel like a lot this year, watch when you're watching out filters.

[SPEAKER_00]: Does the out filter, like the fly ball hit opposite field?

[SPEAKER_00]: And the out filter starts drifting back and he keeps drifting back and he keeps drifting back.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then he realizes, I'm, I'm on dirt.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm touching the wall.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then he looks up or he jumps up and then the ball clears the fence.

[SPEAKER_00]: The outfiters kind of telling you there, that outfiter in most cases has been out there and has seen a lot of fly balls.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's seen a lot of balls up to that.

[SPEAKER_00]: The way that battered that outfiter reacted kind of tells you that they didn't expect that ball to lead the yard.

[SPEAKER_00]: The picture, the way they react, thought like, oh, I got them to pop it up and then it left the yard.

[SPEAKER_00]: The base runners who are scampering around the bases and then slam on the brakes because they realize, oh, that ball is a home run.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're seeing more of that this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I would say, it's been, it's been pretty evident.

[SPEAKER_00]: We wrote about this kind of the first version of the story back in like I want to say late April or early May.

[SPEAKER_00]: And we thought, okay, there's something here.

[SPEAKER_00]: But as someone who enjoyed writing about and watching like what happened in AAA when they changed from the minor league ball to the major league ball and home run rates went way up.

[SPEAKER_00]: this year has been, has felt like that, but in a much more dramatic way.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and let's talk a little bit about the baseball in a second, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: One player I wanted to bring up because I do my end of month reviews of the top producing pitching prospects and the top producing hitting prospects at the end of each month or right of 10 on each side.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I have a pretty good feel for you know what a big month is and you know what have you and one of the things that I do is I look at the underlying data throughout the season and some of the trends.

[SPEAKER_01]: for each player.

[SPEAKER_01]: One such player that's really been fascinating in August, he was the top hitter in August.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that is an outfielder for the Diamondbacks, Avery Alwassu Asidu.

[SPEAKER_01]: He had incredible.

[SPEAKER_00]: He changed.

[SPEAKER_01]: Any of his data year over year.

[SPEAKER_01]: So he had a really bad first full

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, then had kind of bounce back last year had a pretty good season across both A levels and, you know, finds himself traded in the off season now with the Diamondbacks season starts off OK, he's really taken off over the last couple of months was promoted to double A in his gone.

[SPEAKER_00]: No, no, no, no, no.

[SPEAKER_00]: Sorry, I got interrupted.

[SPEAKER_00]: Caesar did not start off OK. Caesar started off horrifically bad.

[SPEAKER_00]: Was it that bad?

[SPEAKER_00]: I think if you know, I wrote about him for today too.

[SPEAKER_00]: And his, his high-a numbers were like, uh, oh, is he going to be released in the off season?

[SPEAKER_00]: So I'll bring him up just a so as of he was in high A right and as of mid July his slash line was 169 271 307 with Basically at that point to home, I'm sorry, 8 home runs, you know, through mid July.

[SPEAKER_00]: And since then

[SPEAKER_00]: He's been the greatest hitter who walks the minorly earth, basically.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, but what I was going to say, what I was leading into is his underlying data hasn't changed.

[SPEAKER_01]: His contact rates are pretty much the same.

[SPEAKER_01]: His launch angles are pretty much the same.

[SPEAKER_01]: His power numbers, underlying power numbers are pretty much the same.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's really no explanation here as to why he's gone through the roof, especially, you know, there's there's some of it going from the northwest lead.

[SPEAKER_01]: He, actually, there's a different run environment.

[SPEAKER_00]: And he has closed up his stance, like since mid July, he's closed up his stance.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're basically going to add his homo power that he didn't have.

[SPEAKER_01]: But he didn't have, but he didn't hasn't had the crazy jump in 90th percent of it.

[SPEAKER_01]: like all the underlying data hasn't gone crazy.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I guess what I'm leading up to here is, is it the baseball that is creating all of these changes to the way balls are playing?

[SPEAKER_00]: I would say it's not all the baseball, but it's primarily the baseball.

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, a stat with this, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't want to make sure I quote this to you correctly, so let me look it up because I sent it to you before this.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, yeah, I can't even find it there.

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, the number that I remember is, yes, the Texas League, in June this year and the Texas League, because you were talking about the

[SPEAKER_00]: That is a, to give you an idea last year at this, at that time, June of 2025, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: And again, there could be seasonal variations, weather variations where even though it's the same month, the weather was a little hotter this year or whatever.

[SPEAKER_00]: But last year, and that same month in Texas league, it was 9.2%.

[SPEAKER_00]: So it's more than doubled, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: So what's happening is if you hit the ball in the air, you are getting rewarded in a way.

[SPEAKER_00]: And we've seen this, so, okay,

[SPEAKER_00]: Two ways we studied this, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Let's start with the FSL, the Florida State League.

[SPEAKER_00]: Florida State League is the one league using the minor league baseball because we talked about there at the top.

[SPEAKER_00]: There's a minor league baseball used in low-A, high-A, well DSL, ACL, FCL, low-A, high-A, AA, and then the major league baseball, just like they used in the majors, although it says minor league, but the same construction, same hand, you know, wound, all, you know, that same non-machine made baseball's used in AAA, like it was the majors.

[SPEAKER_00]: And for the longest time,

[SPEAKER_00]: The triple A slash Major League Baseball has performed way hotter than the minor league baseball.

[SPEAKER_00]: We knew this.

[SPEAKER_00]: We wrote about when they said they were going to switch to the Major League Baseball in Triple A.

[SPEAKER_00]: We said watch out.

[SPEAKER_00]: Home runs are going to go way up.

[SPEAKER_00]: Runs are going to go way up and they did because everyone and there everyone who was who played with both baseballs was like Major League Baseball way more performative than the minor league ball.

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, this year, that minor league baseball.

[SPEAKER_00]: So we have FSL.

[SPEAKER_00]: We have AAA.

[SPEAKER_00]: We have all the data on every ball put in play publicly for FSL and for AAA.

[SPEAKER_00]: AAA just keeps right online with what it's been.

[SPEAKER_00]: The home run for fly ball rate, we've been the same range as it was last year, the year before the year before that.

[SPEAKER_00]: EVs, right from the same range.

[SPEAKER_00]: Did you go to the FSL and EVs are up throughout 0.2 miles an hour from last year and they've been going up year by year by year.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I think the FSL is getting a little bit older we've talked about because of the changes and how many high school players are drafted versus college and all that.

[SPEAKER_00]: But the EVs going up a little bit.

[SPEAKER_00]: But the way the ball is performing is going up way more.

[SPEAKER_00]: The home run to fly ball rate this year in the FSL is up way up compared to what it was last year the year before that year before that.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think, and we have a graphic up on the YouTube side on this.

[SPEAKER_00]: The other part of this is it's not rewarding you touched on this.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's not rewarding everyone the same way, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: because we have, again, we put it to some buckets, and you say, okay, how hard did you hit the ball and what launch angle did you hit it at, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Because you can hit a ball.

[SPEAKER_00]: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is an example of this.

[SPEAKER_00]: We saw a ball that he hit this week where he hit a ball 116 on a line, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: And it almost went through the left fielder, but it wasn't a home run.

[SPEAKER_00]: Because even though he hit it 116, you have to get the ball in the air enough for it to clear the fence.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you hit a ball one really 100, but especially if you hit a ball 105 miles an hour or harder, you're not seeing a whole change.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like if we look at those baseballs, how they're performing, how they're the results of those in the Florida State League.

[SPEAKER_00]: And we're looking by pulside, center, opo, we're looking kind of where it was hit because we have trajectories all that.

[SPEAKER_00]: Those baseballs are going out at roughly, I actually a little bit less home run.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you were home runs this year, then we saw last year, but in the same range.

[SPEAKER_00]: They're basically performing the same.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you hit a ball 110 miles an hour at a 22 degree launch angle, it's pretty much going to be a home run, 75% of the time, no matter where you hit the ball.

[SPEAKER_00]: But if you hit about 95 to 99.9 miles an hour that border line ball, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: And you hit it where 20 to 25 or 25 to 30 degrees, where you're hitting a fly ball, a lofted fly ball.

[SPEAKER_00]: Those balls are going out way more this year than they did last year.

[SPEAKER_00]: And when you say, okay, well, why you say that you know it's the baseball,

[SPEAKER_00]: we're not seeing the same thing in AAA, in AAA, they're performing the same way this year as they did last year.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so then you can take that and kind of extrapolate and say, okay, we have the data for FSL.

[SPEAKER_00]: But we also know that this baseball's being used in all the other leagues.

[SPEAKER_00]: And when you look at those, every single non AAA full season league,

[SPEAKER_00]: the home run rate, as percentage of flyballs, and if you want to, a home run rate as compared to a percentage of flyballs in line drives, because about 13% of home runs are line drives, 87% of them are flyballs, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: By how they classed by it.

[SPEAKER_00]: Well,

[SPEAKER_00]: The rate in every single non-tripley league is up dramatically.

[SPEAKER_00]: And the rate this year in every one of those leagues is basically either there's a couple of leagues.

[SPEAKER_00]: The South Atlantic League has a higher rate than triple A leagues this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: Couple of double A leagues due to, but even the least performance low-A league high-A league is in that same range as the PCL this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is the fascinating question, which is, okay, we know that the home runs are way up, but I'll kind of kick it back to you because you and I've been talking about this a lot.

[SPEAKER_00]: So what does that mean?

[SPEAKER_00]: And one thing we can tell you that it does mean we know that that means that we're seeing a lot more homers, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: So you're seeing these tweets every night right now like congratulations as the fill in the blank team has just set their all time franchise record for home runs in a season.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is the year to do that when home runs are up this much, but also we're seeing so and so has the most home runs in franchise history at this level or whatever we're seeing that alone.

[SPEAKER_00]: We seeing Andrew Fisher has a chance to have like the most home runs for anyone not in the PCL since Ryan Howard that kind of thing we're seeing we're going to have way more 30 home run hitters this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: But to go back to the point we were making and we're seeing also by the way, if you're a picture and you have an ERA under four well done well done because this year's not an easy year to do that, but trying to sus out what this is going to mean going forward, that's really challenging, but like what are you like when you say when you see it, like I kind of wonder.

[SPEAKER_00]: because we don't know if this is gonna be the new environment or this is a one year blip.

[SPEAKER_00]: But one thing I will say like, beyond the wall, scrapers and all that, we'll get into that.

[SPEAKER_00]: One thing I just know, and I've seen this because I've covered, I want thing I'll say about covering independent leagues and affiliated ball, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Sometimes you'll see a guy play affiliated ball and suck, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Just test, doesn't hit, strikes out a lot, whatever.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then he goes to independent baseball,

[SPEAKER_00]: And sometimes it's like, oh, I tweak my swing.

[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, I improve this.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I'll tell you, I think a lot of it sometimes is if you get confident at the plate, you're a much better hitter than if you're not confident.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I will tell you this, Jeff.

[SPEAKER_00]: I feel like a lot of hitters this year have a whole lot of reasons to feel more confident than they have in past years.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know about you, but what are you saying?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, 100% and I'll say this.

[SPEAKER_01]: Before, we dive into my answer.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's take a quick break and we come back, we'll get into more of this, we'll explore a little bit more and we have more stuff to on peel here more layers to the onion so to speak, we'll be right back after this break.

[SPEAKER_01]: All right, we are back, Baseball America Prospect podcast, Jeff Ponds, JJ Cooper.

[SPEAKER_01]: We are talking this out of control, minor league run environment, the season, JJ, and the first half of the show.

[SPEAKER_01]: Put a lot of that stuff into context with some of the numbers.

[SPEAKER_01]: He asked me before we went to break, sort of what are the things that I'm seeing?

[SPEAKER_01]: I am seeing so many opposite field home runs JJ.

[SPEAKER_01]: That seems to be the thing that jumps out to me the most.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's what I said, sort of at the top of the show.

[SPEAKER_01]: When you see something that's pumped to the pull side, whether it's hit 100, whether it's hit 110, it all kind of goes, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think it's the same for a lot of these center field shots, using a lot of stuff travel to center field well under 104.

[SPEAKER_01]: But,

[SPEAKER_01]: Those aren't the ones that surprised me.

[SPEAKER_01]: We see pull side homeruns, we see center field shots.

[SPEAKER_01]: I would say those are your best hits, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: When I'm in the cage and I'm hit with somebody, you know, and I'm not throwing absolute heat, of course, against these little leaders, I want them to pull the ball, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: Be ahead of it.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that way, you're on time in the game and you're hitting the ball up in the middle.

[SPEAKER_01]: So ideally, your two outcomes as a hitter is you're trying to pull the ball into play or you're trying to smack it up the middle, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: You're typically not trying to hit the ball to the opposite field unless you're like a slash and dash guy or someone with an inside-out swing, which is fine, but whatever.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think ideally at this point, I'm a majority of hitters and minor league baseball, the way that hitting is being taught right now at the amateur level and then at the professional

[SPEAKER_01]: When I see some of these opposite field wall scrapers and they happen so many times throughout a night.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I'll be sitting here in my office.

[SPEAKER_01]: I have a large screen TV that I put my primary game typically a picture or pitching matchup I want to watch.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that's where the primary game is.

[SPEAKER_01]: I might move it around throughout the gate.

[SPEAKER_01]: the night or the day.

[SPEAKER_01]: I have a screen here where I put one game on and then I have my computer my laptop where I'll put another game on.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I'll have three games going at any point in time with sound on.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's a real insane environment JJ.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm with you.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm the same crazy.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you can pull your attention to where people are making noise, right, or things are happening.

[SPEAKER_01]: So as I'm scanning across the three, I see so many opposite field home runs.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I'll say particularly over the last month and a half where I've been just heavily watching minorly games.

[SPEAKER_01]: at a rate that I hadn't earlier in the season where we hadn't million other things going on.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is a point in the year where I'm really diving in.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's also a point in the year where the run environments, I think, are standardized in terms of the actual weather effects.

[SPEAKER_01]: Everybody has hot weather.

[SPEAKER_01]: Everybody pretty much has humidity, whether you're in Massachusetts, whether you're in California, whether you're in Texas, whether you're in Florida.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're varying degrees, of course.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not gonna argue about the humidity with so much humidity.

[SPEAKER_01]: the South, I understand it's greater there.

[SPEAKER_01]: But all of this stuff at this point is kind of standard.

[SPEAKER_01]: Everybody's playing in hot baseball weather, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: But when you start to see some of these shots that are clearing the fence, like I said, it looks like it's coming off of a demerini or an east and high fire.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like I feel like it's a combat.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like these guys are swinging combat.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I know that they're not.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're all wood bats.

[SPEAKER_01]: They have to be manufactured.

[SPEAKER_01]: They've been pretty, the specifications and standards for wood bats are probably higher than they are for the baseball.

[SPEAKER_00]: You can't, the reality of this is that and credit of baseball bat rows for kind of showing this.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, you can't really cheat that much with wood.

[SPEAKER_00]: You can't, it's just really nice to cork it like there's not even if you cork it.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's not like a corking a bat is not the same as like if you want to shave a, you know, a metal bat, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: a composite bat.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you want to take this role in a bat, all those, you can do things with a metal, you know, a composite, you can do things with those that you can't with these.

[SPEAKER_00]: And the data max up completely what you're saying.

[SPEAKER_00]: Study it in the FSL because, again, we have EVs and all there too, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: in the Florida State League in 2025, 80% of home runs were the poolside, okay?

[SPEAKER_00]: 9% to center, 11% off of.

[SPEAKER_00]: That fits what you're saying here, especially in the FSL, lowest level of the miners, most guys don't have the power.

[SPEAKER_00]: Most guys not all right.

[SPEAKER_00]: It was in that league last year.

[SPEAKER_00]: Bryce Rainer his power off and it is to the opposite field.

[SPEAKER_01]: There are exceptions, but Tony was in that league last year, too.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, but most guys their home their power, especially that age is it you pull it right and you're not talking about dry parks like in the California league or whatever.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, you're talking about American layers and a lot of these parks, parks that are right on the water are pretty close, like the air is pretty heavy in that area, so it's it's also not a typical run, you know, environment, so I put a place.

[SPEAKER_00]: So pull side homers last year 80% this year 69% center field last year 9% this year 13% that the key one up a last year 11% this year 18% and.

[SPEAKER_00]: To give it, we did 24 as well.

[SPEAKER_00]: 24 was basically 12% last year was 11 this year's 18.

[SPEAKER_00]: So the Oppo home run rate has gone up dramatically this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then if you say, okay, well, what about Tripoli?

[SPEAKER_00]: Again, using the same baseball as it was using the same major league baseball that even using.

[SPEAKER_00]: It was 15% in 2004.

[SPEAKER_00]: It was 16% in 25 and it's 14% this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: It stayed within the same range.

[SPEAKER_00]: And it's basically you're seeing like 67, 68% full.

[SPEAKER_00]: You're seeing like 19, 20% the center.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then you're seeing like 14 to 15 to 16% off of.

[SPEAKER_00]: So we're seeing more opposite field hormones in the FSL than we see in AAA,

[SPEAKER_00]: but especially we're seeing that the trend line that changed there from last year this year is dramatic and to go back to what we were talking about earlier, you would expect to see more op-a-home runs in AAA with bigger, stronger, older hitters who have more op-s than field power, who also have kind of been, who have survived the steps along the way, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: It's hard to make it to AAA with no power.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's easy.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's much easier to be in the FSL with no power with either the hope that you'll develop it or that the, again, you have them in self-selected out.

[SPEAKER_00]: So to what you're saying right there, I think that there is definitely evidence that there is more opposite field power.

[SPEAKER_00]: And by the way, I should bring up, we're also focused on full season baseball for this because we have a lot more data,

[SPEAKER_00]: If you look at the DSL, if you look at the Florida Complex League, you look at the Arizona Complex League, runs and homeruns were way up in those leagues, which are already done now for this year, as well.

[SPEAKER_00]: So it's across all levels of the minors that use the minor league baseball.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I've talked to you again, since who doing this story, I have talked to people, done reporting on this talking to people of major league baseball.

[SPEAKER_00]: we see it.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're not disputing in any way that this is happening.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're telling you we don't know why there is no intentional change to anything that would spur this.

[SPEAKER_00]: Probably almost bearing this for a lot of people are going to think about with this.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I'll just kind of lay out with that.

[SPEAKER_00]: We covered this in the story over at Baseball American.com as well.

[SPEAKER_00]: You may feel that I'm naive to say this, but I believe them.

[SPEAKER_00]: And here's why I believe them.

[SPEAKER_00]: I can't come up with any kind of motive for why anyone would

[SPEAKER_00]: Secretly I can this is the key word right if you said when they switched the boss baseball and triple a For the minor league ball to the major league baseball They didn't do this where you know, they just said oh, we're just gonna do a switch And we're not gonna tell anyone and again I'm not saying this never happened in major league baseball at all, but they said we're switching to the major league baseball And we saw runs up and everyone what wire runs up is like because they switched to major league baseball But I can't find a motive.

[SPEAKER_00]: I can't find a reason an explanation for why

[SPEAKER_00]: based there will be any benefit to live in the minor league baseball, and especially to do so and then be secretive about it even after the data quite clearly shows that the ball's performing differently.

[SPEAKER_00]: We now talk to people who are involved with this.

[SPEAKER_00]: The answer I've gotten consistently is as we see it.

[SPEAKER_00]: We don't know what's happened, but I think this is something that's something you and I've talked about before.

[SPEAKER_00]: key thing, and this is also true at the major level, the specifications for the baseball of what is compliant, of what is within regulation, it's so wide.

[SPEAKER_00]: You could have a baseball that performs like

[SPEAKER_00]: a hacky sack and you could have super happy fun ball.

[SPEAKER_00]: And largely both of those can fit within the range of a compliant, a baseball that meets specifications.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so,

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if the leather that was supplied for these baseballs this year was different.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if a machine is winding them a little differently and they're not aware.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know what it is, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't have an answer for that.

[SPEAKER_00]: I can tell you that the baseballs by all evidence are performing hotter than they did, but I also should point out one other thing.

[SPEAKER_00]: We saw, it wasn't to this level, but in 2021, see, only other year that was close to this.

[SPEAKER_00]: In 2021, the run environment and home run environment was much higher than it has normally been in minor leagues.

[SPEAKER_00]: But at the time, that was very different because do remember, we didn't have a 2020 season in minor leagues, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: We had COVID.

[SPEAKER_00]: We also had the complete reorganization of the mine.

[SPEAKER_00]: We had the elimination of short season class leagues like the New York Pen League in the North West League.

[SPEAKER_00]: North West League became a high elite.

[SPEAKER_00]: We had the elimination of the api league.

[SPEAKER_00]: We had the elimination of the pine early.

[SPEAKER_00]: We had

[SPEAKER_00]: The reduction of, you know, we had full season mate minors, but even in the full season minors, the Sally league went from low a to high a the Carolina league went from high at a low a the North West league went from short season a to high a you had so many changes that year you had teams moving all around and all that where.

[SPEAKER_00]: It just looked like an aberration that could be explained at the time by, oh, maybe this is what the new environment is because we've brought the North Wesleyg in the full season ball.

[SPEAKER_00]: And we've got older players because of the five year round draft in 2020.

[SPEAKER_00]: And oh, you know, all these things.

[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe pitching's down because of lost your all these things.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, like, and then since then 2022, the ball was even a little hotter although the performance was a little bit down.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then that kind of declined 23, 24, 25.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then this year it rocketed back up.

[SPEAKER_00]: That does kind of maybe the 2021, 2022 ball was also kind of more like this, and we just didn't realize it fully at the time.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I kind of want to kick this back to you because I don't have, I'm working on this.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're both working on this.

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, if you are going to try to explain what type of player or what kind of players would benefit from this versus who would either not benefit, I'll tell you right now, who we could shortly, a simple way to summarize who will not benefit from this.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you're a fly ball pitcher, who's homer prone,

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm really sorry, like, I mean, this year's been rough, most of the time.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'll give, I want to give talk about Wilkinson who's made as the majors this year, trade it from the Guardians, the Giants, and made as majors.

[SPEAKER_00]: I would say that a picture of his profile would be one I would expect to really struggle with this and to his credit, he has not.

[SPEAKER_00]: Even though he is can be a whole little homerprone at time,

[SPEAKER_00]: But that's the type of like I'd say that, but who, okay, let's start with, who do you think like, what kind of, if we're, and we're saying like, okay, the first parts of this were very data driven, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: I've studied this for weeks now to where my eyes were bleeding of like trying to, you know, look at this a different way in a different way, to make sure that I wasn't missing something.

[SPEAKER_00]: When it comes to the players who are benefiting, or who aren't benefiting, I think this is more into the range of theory at this point, because it's a lot tougher, but Jeff, what would be your profile of who benefits?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think there's kind of one ultimate truth and then we can kind of build some buckets under off of that.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think if you want to meet a putt make a blanket statement,

[SPEAKER_01]: in terms of who it's benefiting.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think it is hitters who hit a lot of balls in play in sort of the ideal launch angle bucket of like 15 to like 30 degrees.

[SPEAKER_01]: That if you're hitting a lot of balls in play at those angles stuff that might have been

[SPEAKER_01]: F9s, F8s, F7s, are now flying out of the park or getting those wall scrapers or hitting the wall and getting down for a double or changing the perception of how the ball is coming into a outfield or something he's done for probably a decade of his life at this point if not longer.

[SPEAKER_01]: and messing with him so he isn't making those plays.

[SPEAKER_01]: We talked about this a little bit.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think off air, but I think it's those guys ideally.

[SPEAKER_01]: I do think that there is sort of a sub-sector of that, which are

[SPEAKER_01]: hitters that hunt barrels.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think this is a style of hitting.

[SPEAKER_01]: These are guys that are typically, maybe not crazy aggressive, but fairly aggressive.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think Havi or Bias is probably like a primary example of this kind of style of hitting.

[SPEAKER_01]: Guys, you want to fall hard, put it in play, anything that is anywhere around the zone, they're looking to attack that,

[SPEAKER_01]: and elevate and celebrate.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think Jesus buy as from the Cardinals as a perfect example of this.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's got power.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's always headbat to ball skills.

[SPEAKER_01]: Gating back to his time with the reds we're writing about his data and some of the positive underlying stuff.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's a major leader.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's probably an average everyday major leader.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's good feedback across the board, internally and externally on him.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, but I am a little skeptical that he's ever going to put a 30 home run seasons in the majors like he's going to or has this year in the minors and a lot of that is because of kind of these miss hit balls that are traveling over the fence and he's hitting stuff hard.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm just not sure that it we're going to see hitters be able to replicate that once they get in the big weeks they're facing better pitching they're in.

[SPEAKER_01]: really worse run environments, and they're not getting these additional benefits of the baseballs that we're seeing in the myor leagues in 2026.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, that was certainly something that we didn't have to really factor into our evaluations previously because of how those AAA and major league balls played versus the rest of the minors.

[SPEAKER_01]: Or now I think it's something you do have to you.

[SPEAKER_01]: You look at that guy who has a good hit tool.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think part of hit tool for me isn't just bats of ball skills, it's the pitches you do and don't swing at.

[SPEAKER_01]: I also think it's the angles that you may contact at.

[SPEAKER_01]: Some people would say that's in the power, but I think,

[SPEAKER_01]: The guys that have the best hit tools, the Kevin McGonagall's, the Alex Braggman's, those kind of guys that are really sturdy in like rock solid.

[SPEAKER_01]: Those are gonna translate for many, many years in their professional career, and probably not deteriorate as quickly.

[SPEAKER_01]: Those really elite hit tool guys, typically have the ability to backstitch in the ball pretty consistently.

[SPEAKER_01]: at good angles.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think those kind of like backspin or or launch angle merchants, those guys are benefiting the most.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I do think guys that hit the ball hard and try to kind of catch the ball at good angles and put it in play, they're getting some additional benefit as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I'm not sure that at second style of hitting those barrel hunters, I'm not sure that that's

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, two things I want to kind of jump off of that with.

[SPEAKER_00]: One is, I want to lay out what we don't know, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Again, we're studying this, I'm hoping to do a lot more on this, but I'm kind of trying to build a model to kind of at least look at the FSL and say like, okay, how many home runs with this hit or hit in 25 in that environment compared to this year?

[SPEAKER_00]: But one thing we'll say is, we don't know, like, what I will fully acknowledge,

[SPEAKER_00]: The results in the minor leagues and the lower levels now are much more in line with the home run rates that you see in AAA in the major leagues.

[SPEAKER_00]: So theoretically, it is possible

[SPEAKER_00]: We talked about how the minor league baseball used to be dead or was perceived as a less lively ball in the major league ball.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's possible that this is a more accurate representation of the environment in AAA in the major leagues.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that maybe in some ways this is going to provide a more accurate representation.

[SPEAKER_00]: of who should succeed and not like you're getting rewarded for balls that you get in the air and that's true in the major leagues as well.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so in this current offensive environment, you're worth.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if that's true.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm just one of least acknowledged.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're not closing off, there's a array of possibilities.

[SPEAKER_00]: We don't know if this is a one year blip in the minor leagues for double and below.

[SPEAKER_00]: And next year, the baseballs are going to be like the 25 balls again.

[SPEAKER_00]: Or maybe this is the new normal.

[SPEAKER_00]: And this is what we're going to see for years to come.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I will say kind of along those lines, kind of tying off what you said there.

[SPEAKER_00]: One of the things that I'm starting to do with this is kind of look at hitters, okay, to go back to what we know in the FSL, going back to the data that we know.

[SPEAKER_00]: We know that if you're hitting a home run 105 plus, this is probably, I'm not saying you're not benefiting at all from this, but those home runs are not really the ones that are turning from outs or doubles into home runs, outs and the doubles, all that, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: The ball's traveling further,

[SPEAKER_00]: a home run that goes 20 rows into the stands or 20 rows, you know, 20, 30 feet past the berm.

[SPEAKER_00]: And now goes 40 feet past the berm, was a home run before it's the home run now.

[SPEAKER_00]: What we do know is those balls that, to go back to what we started talking about the start, the ball were the outfielder jumps up and tries to make a catch to rob the home run and it just goes over the fence.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's much more likely a home run

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't, I hesitate to almost bring up a name here because I don't know enough here to say, oh, see this is the perfect example of a player who would, who's really benefiting from this.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I am going to because I'm acknowledging that, again, I'm just, I'm bringing up real

[SPEAKER_00]: That we don't know if this is maybe more like what it is in the majors.

[SPEAKER_00]: We don't know, but like Ryan says a rainy who's kind of had a great second half with the guardians who's got 19 homers now in like 56 games right was in high a one of the multiple guys we've seen.

[SPEAKER_00]: a lot this year who were in high a got promoted to double a and their home run rates went way up, which is something you don't normally see maybe a little in the Texas league from the Midwest league, but we're seeing like we talked about Avery OSU, I see Aito, I see Ato, like he's a guy who is hit way more Homer's in a month in the Texas league than he'd ever hit the Midwest.

[SPEAKER_00]: But okay, it says a rainy's case.

[SPEAKER_00]: I logged all 19 homeruns.

[SPEAKER_00]: I watched all 19 homeruns

[SPEAKER_00]: and synergies sports, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: And the rule I did is what we just talked about.

[SPEAKER_00]: If an outfielder jumps to try to catch the ball, I'm calling that as a barely home run.

[SPEAKER_00]: If an outfielder stops as they're running back to play the keramoth the wall and then the ball clears the fence.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm counting that as a barely cleared home run.

[SPEAKER_00]: If a ball doesn't out there can't get all the way over to, but just clears the fence.

[SPEAKER_00]: There's an example of Cesarini where center field, the center field or couldn't get there, but the ball hit the berm just past the fence and then bounce right back over into the center field, it was blocked, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: He tried to play it off as I made the catch for a mid at Richardville's home run.

[SPEAKER_00]: Those kind of balls I'm counting as, okay, maybe they would not have been home runs under the 2025 environment.

[SPEAKER_00]: Of Cesarini's 19 homers, I counted 10 of those.

[SPEAKER_00]: That fit that criteria.

[SPEAKER_00]: I looked at Josiah Ragsdale, who's another guy who I've hit a couple of those recently, stand out to me.

[SPEAKER_00]: He had seven, seven of his 22 that we logged were, I would say, of that, maybe they would have been home on last year.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, again, I would love to tell you that I've done this for every player in the minors.

[SPEAKER_00]: I would love to have done it for every top 100 prospect.

[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe I'll get there, but I'm not there yet.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm crazy, but there's only so many hours in the day.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I don't know how that compares to other guys yet, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: I want to fully acknowledge.

[SPEAKER_00]: I want to make it clear.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not saying Ryan Cesarini is not actually what he's performing right now should mean anything because of the baseball.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's not what I'm saying.

[SPEAKER_00]: What I'm just saying is that gives you an example of a guy though, where

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, I think it's not crazy to think that if you put Ryan Cesarini in 2024, 2025, hitting the wall all the way, he's has.

[SPEAKER_00]: Still been having a very good year, but he might have 10 home runs instead of almost 20.

[SPEAKER_00]: He might have 11 home runs.

[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe he has 9.

[SPEAKER_00]: Somewhere in that range,

[SPEAKER_00]: And that's a very different season.

[SPEAKER_00]: And again, just fully acknowledging what we don't know right now, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: What we don't know, I'm more comfortable to be honest, talking about like, when people ask us about Andrew Fisher and like, why are you all so hesitant on Andrew Fisher?

[SPEAKER_00]: It's easier for me to say as many homeruncies hitting that strikeout rate, that inzone swing and miswrite,

[SPEAKER_00]: We have a lot of data.

[SPEAKER_00]: We have a lot of evidence of how difficult it is to make that approach work in the major leagues, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, when we talk about Lazaro Montez, who we say, like, hey, he could be a star, or he could really flame out in the major leagues.

[SPEAKER_00]: Both are possible.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's like, well, why is that?

[SPEAKER_00]: It's because when you have a swing that geared to power,

[SPEAKER_00]: your margins for making contact are very slim.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's something I feel like is still, I feel very comfortable.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's like, that fits from the realm of what we know and understand.

[SPEAKER_00]: I just wanna fully acknowledge here.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think anyone, definitely not myself and I know when I've talked to yet on this so far, fully understand how to entirely wrap your brain around, wrap your head around,

[SPEAKER_00]: what this home run and run environment being so different from just a year ago means to the long-term development of these players.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I'll say, like, because one of the things that we'll say with that, though, is I do believe that this environment this year, even if it's just a one-year blip, we'll turn some players into big leagueers who would not have been otherwise, and turn other players who would have been big leagueers into not big leagueers, because

[SPEAKER_00]: Even if your interorganization that does the best job possible of filtering out all the noise in this and bringing it back to a neutral environment and all that, players are people.

[SPEAKER_00]: And if you're a pitcher and you have a style of pitching, and all of a sudden you gave up three op-o-home runs in a game, you're probably gonna change a little bit of your style of pitching because the game's telling you this isn't working anymore.

[SPEAKER_00]: And maybe that gets you to do something that you're not as good at.

[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe it makes you less confident, and so all of a sudden you're controlling command that's been really good starts to deteriorate.

[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe as you're a hitter who's really like, always struggle with strikeouts,

[SPEAKER_00]: You all have a sudden or a 30-home run hitter and you carry yourself in a different way because you're a 30-home run hitter.

[SPEAKER_00]: There aren't that many guys out there.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm sorry, I've gone on for a long time there Jeff, but like what do you think, like with fall?

[SPEAKER_00]: Again, I've spent way too much time thinking about this recently because it fascinates me.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think we've done an excellent job of kind of walking through all the different components of everything that's gone on.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I watch a lot of games.

[SPEAKER_01]: I pay attention to statistics and numbers and you know, often I'm looking at underlying data year over year and then being like, you know, how this guy find more success.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, typically,

[SPEAKER_01]: over the last few years, at least, that we've had access to that year to year that the jumps aren't as great in terms of the run environment.

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, that's, that's not a curveball in all this.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that's, for me, that's my biggest takeaway because it impacts what I do professionally, and I want to do it as well as I possibly can, and identifying where

[SPEAKER_01]: players might be aided by minor league environments or leagues or hurt by them is always something we have to factor into the equation.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think kind of learning about all these different leagues and even thinking on my own in more of a,

[SPEAKER_01]: a theory perspective about, well, is this impacting maybe the Texas League more than it's impacting the eastern league, just because it was always a good run environment, it's just made it that much better.

[SPEAKER_01]: So how many more homeruns or guys that, you know, are, you know,

[SPEAKER_01]: Padre's prospects or mariners prospects or cardinals prospects.

[SPEAKER_01]: How many more home runs or, you know, points on their isolated slugging percentage or they gaining from this ball and now being in this league.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think there's a lot of things that it almost leads to more questions that it does answers.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's kind of one of those things you want to cover it.

[SPEAKER_01]: And now you have.

[SPEAKER_01]: 400 questions versus two or three right and it and it fuels some of that.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think that's what my biggest takeaway.

[SPEAKER_01]: I guess the last thing I'll ask you though, JJ, do you have sort of any closing thoughts before we wrap the show on?

[SPEAKER_00]: So okay, I have one, which is we've talked about a certain profile, but I'll throw at one because we've seen also increase, you know, we've had years that are more home run happen the major leagues and less home run happy, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: And one thing that does stand out and get this is a theory, I wish I'd have studied it more.

[SPEAKER_00]: But like, I do think that it's very possible that players with less power are the ones who are benefiting from this demo.

[SPEAKER_00]: We talked about the 90 to 99.9 mile an hour EV, which is a non-home run or a borderline home run that's now a home run.

[SPEAKER_00]: But if you said, okay, we'll give me an example of that.

[SPEAKER_00]: I would say like, like Kevin Newman,

[SPEAKER_00]: is kind of a pretty fringy big leader for the vast majority of his career, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Like I'm using fan graphs here and I've got one season in his career with a war above two, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: And I've got one two, he's got three seasons of four seasons of negative war, one season of 2.2, one of 1.2, one of 1.4 and one of zero, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: So he I would say he's not a replacement level player, but he's kind of I would say a backup generally.

[SPEAKER_00]: But he had one year where he was really productive, which I would say was 2019, and he had a 130, it's the only time he's had only time he's played, you know, he had 500, only time he had 500 played appearances as a career, also the best ISO of his career.

[SPEAKER_00]: That was a much more offensive year that year.

[SPEAKER_00]: David Fletcher was good at that time, which was a guy who was a middle infielder,

[SPEAKER_00]: I do think that if the sea level of power goes up, those types of players are sometimes the ones who benefit the most because

[SPEAKER_00]: It goes from being something that is the thing that keeps them from being productive to ceasing to be that, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: So, again, this is all theory on my part.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like Chandler Simpson, if you put Chandler Simpson in the minors this year, it would not help Chandler Simpson at all to have a more perform, you know, a hotter baseball.

[SPEAKER_00]: Because it may mean that some of those balls that he's hitting in front of the outfielders get to the outfielders.

[SPEAKER_00]: and he very rarely has some over and out fitters in.

[SPEAKER_00]: But if you're someone who hits a lot of all's two out fitters, you know, has that 300 to 350 foot power.

[SPEAKER_00]: And now I'll said you have 310, 312 to 36370 foot power.

[SPEAKER_00]: That can make a difference.

[SPEAKER_00]: Kind of one of the things you were talking about.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's not just that outspirning, you know, homerons or doubles turn in homerons.

[SPEAKER_00]: It also could be that singles turn into doubles, or outspirning, singles all that.

[SPEAKER_00]: there's so much here.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like this is something where we will keep studying this, but I also will be first to say, all you can do with this is

[SPEAKER_00]: study it and let the results kind of take you don't don't come into it with preconceived notions.

[SPEAKER_00]: What I just said right there, I might study it further and find that completely wrong on that, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know, that's a theory, not a not a supported thing, but I will summarize this, wrap this up by saying, what is not theory is, what is evidently true?

[SPEAKER_00]: is the run environment in the minor leagues in 2026 is the highest we have seen in the minor leagues as far back as you can really study this.

[SPEAKER_00]: I didn't say that start I should have said that.

[SPEAKER_00]: gone back like I have data we have data in our database to be able and with a little bit of work using all an axe and baseball reference and I'll were able to get back to 1988, which is a pretty far way back for the binder leaks.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I can tell you there is no year like this in the minors, you know, up to 1988.

[SPEAKER_00]: Going before that.

[SPEAKER_00]: Using baseball reference using the official baseball guides and all doing that work, I could get it back to 1963, which is the reorganization of the miners into the current levels, right, triple A double A no more class B class C class D.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I can tell you, this is the highest run scoring environment.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know about home runs.

[SPEAKER_00]: Sorry, too much can't really do that.

[SPEAKER_00]: I can tell you, highest run environment in since the miners became the miners that we know them in 1963.

[SPEAKER_00]: Going back before that, I'm sorry, but maybe someone else can do that.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like I don't have enough time.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I didn't think it was a productive enough to say that.

[SPEAKER_00]: that I could tell you that, you know, I know that, you know, Joe Bowman hit, you know, a bazillion homers in Roswell in the late 40s.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if the hot run environment in the late 40s was more, but I can just say this.

[SPEAKER_00]: There's very few people alive at this point who watched minor league baseball.

[SPEAKER_00]: I feel comfortable of saying, who've ever seen a run environment like this, like we've seen in baseball, minor league baseball in 2026, because I can say confidently

[SPEAKER_00]: Unless you were born before, you know, born by the time of World War II, maybe you saw a game in the late 40s and it was, I don't know, run environment like this.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I can tell you like, at least going back if you were going to start going to games in 1963, you've never seen an environment like this.

[SPEAKER_00]: And there aren't a lot of people around who were going to mind only games in 1963 or still with us.

[SPEAKER_00]: So that's how different this is.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I say that like you're going to see them again, you're seeing some of the charts.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you're on YouTube, you go over to baseball America.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you're listening to podcasts, please go over to baseball America.com.

[SPEAKER_00]: I've got a lot of charts that kind of try to spell this out.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is a different world we're seeing this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: And as much as we've talked about it, I just don't think it's fully understood.

[SPEAKER_00]: how crazy this year is, and then we'll see, is this the new normal?

[SPEAKER_00]: Is this gonna be the weird year that we always talk about, like the major leagues we talk about, you know, 1930, and we talk about 98, 99, and 2000, and all, and how different those were.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're living in it right now in the minor leagues.

[SPEAKER_00]: I know that's a little less, you know, little less high profile for people, but we're living in it in the minor leagues here in 2026, and we should acknowledge it, study it, and try to understand it as best we can while we're living it.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that as well put, it's a remarkable thing that we're watching in the minor leagues.

[SPEAKER_01]: His JJ mentioned we still have one week left of regular season, A-ball to watch, play off start week, two more weeks to double A three more weeks triple A.

[SPEAKER_01]: So get out there, watch some of these games, observe for yourself.

[SPEAKER_01]: I encourage you to watch the Springfield Cardinals because they're a blast to watch each night.

[SPEAKER_01]: So JJ,

[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you for joining me.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's been another episode of the baseball America prospect podcast.

[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you because you had to listen to me a lot on this one.

[SPEAKER_00]: I got to wait too far it up.