[SPEAKER_05]: This is Invest Talk, from KPP Financial, helping investors make sense of the markets one day at a time.

[SPEAKER_05]: Here's your host, Luke Guerrero.

[SPEAKER_03]: Good afternoon, fellow investors, and welcome to the Friday, September 4th, 2026 edition of Invest Talk.

[SPEAKER_03]: I'm your host Lou Greer and I'll be with you over the next 45 minutes before we send ourselves off into what is hopefully a relaxing, long weekend.

[SPEAKER_03]: Yes, that's a reminder.

[SPEAKER_03]: We will be having a best of show on Monday because it is a market holiday.

[SPEAKER_03]: Still encourage you to check it out.

[SPEAKER_03]: Here's some great questions and hopefully some great answers as well.

[SPEAKER_03]: If that being said,

[SPEAKER_03]: Before we talk about today's market performance and run it down to those show topics, let's tackle this color question now.

[SPEAKER_01]: Hi, this is Dave Kong, who's free mind to inquire in about Broadcom, A.V.G.O.

[SPEAKER_01]: wondering if it's a good time to add into the position currently below its 200-day moving average.

[SPEAKER_01]: But my understanding was it looks like it has some good forward guidance.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'd love to hear your answer.

[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks.

[SPEAKER_03]: Stick a look at Broadcom to your AVGO.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's a name that we actually used to hold in a couple of our strategies for our clients.

[SPEAKER_03]: It is a semi-conductor and infrastructure software company.

[SPEAKER_03]: So they design these custom AI accelerators or ASICs for hyperscapers.

[SPEAKER_03]: Like Google, like Meta, open AI, plus they also on the side do networking chips, enterprise software, and they have been one of the primary picks and shovel place for the AI infrastructure buildup.

[SPEAKER_03]: And a company is

[SPEAKER_03]: Slightly positive here to date up 3.41% though down 14% over the past three months.

[SPEAKER_03]: Over the past year, it's only up 16.92, coming off of a 2023-2024-2025, where it was up 99-107 and 49% respectively.

[SPEAKER_03]: They recently reported earnings, and nearly as recent as recent can be because it was September 2nd, a revenue was up 86% over here, that was a beat, gap net income was up 216% diluted EPS was up 215% and it's a company whose margins have held pretty steady, actually expanded a bit.

[SPEAKER_03]: because EBIT margin has been on the March up from 29.6 in 2024, up to 40.9 in 2025 projected to be 66.8 this upcoming year.

[SPEAKER_03]: So you're seeing this revenue growth and you're seeing that income growth.

[SPEAKER_03]: You're seeing free cash flow darn near double from 26 billion to 48 billion.

[SPEAKER_03]: And you're seeing margins expand.

[SPEAKER_03]: Everything seems to be good to me there.

[SPEAKER_03]: Yet in spite of this, you know, stock fell a little bit, post earnings, clawed its way back, slightly didn't fall off too much.

[SPEAKER_03]: In terms of guidance, which you mentioned, Q4, 2026 revenue is guided up 93% so slightly below the analyst consensus, so even though they guided higher, it was lower than what the market expected.

[SPEAKER_03]: Still, their core business, AI7, and conductor revenue, expected to reach 21.7 billion in a quarter, that's up 236% year over year, and they declared a solid dividend about 65 cents per share.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now with the best six months, I mean, the stock has really been, for the most part, consolidating, it jettisoned up to about $430 per share back in May, and then it's been slightly down, training about 357 right now.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now, I think,

[SPEAKER_03]: that you can't deny it was a blowout quarter, right?

[SPEAKER_03]: They had massive revenue growth that a huge 35% EPSB and most importantly, in my opinion, they had massive record-free cash flow.

[SPEAKER_03]: But...

[SPEAKER_03]: And the Ford guidance was kind of shy of what people expected.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's a reminder that in the AI trade, the size of the beat matters far less than whether the next quarter's bar keeps climbing at the same pace that investors have come to expect.

[SPEAKER_03]: And the more you have, these blowout quarters, the more that difference matters there.

[SPEAKER_03]: I would even say it's cheap.

[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, it's trading at 20 times price to forward-looking earnings.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think,

[SPEAKER_03]: It's wanting for a catalyst in the near term.

[SPEAKER_03]: I still think it's a great picks and shovels play and not too expensive, I'll be at not cheap.

[SPEAKER_03]: So, I think Browcom's a solid name.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's instrumental in the build-out to your AVGO.

[SPEAKER_03]: Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_03]: We yesterday, we had a solid discussion.

[SPEAKER_03]: And my discussion, I mean, just me talking to myself about the Fed rate hike chances in September.

[SPEAKER_03]: And if the warning Kevin Worst gave in Jackson Hole was just blaster or a bit of a game changer, we also answered a listener question on Tyson Foods to your TSM.

[SPEAKER_03]: So if you want to hear the answer to that question or hear more about my discussion on the Fed rate hike expectations,

[SPEAKER_03]: I encourage you to check out yesterday's episode of Invest Talk.

[SPEAKER_03]: Remember, the best way to never miss an episode is to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

[SPEAKER_03]: On to today, where we have a bit of a gear shift, I would say, in a focus point, because we're going to be talking about Gen Z, and their Proclivity for sports betting, rather than investing.

[SPEAKER_03]: It is in a lot of ways, a ticking time bomb,

[SPEAKER_03]: for retirement savings because a new survey found that 52 percent of the gen Z investors have redirected money earmarked for investing into sports betting.

[SPEAKER_03]: That's pretty startling figure and a lot of ways reveals a generational shift in how young people think about risk as well as wealth building.

[SPEAKER_03]: So this trend has serious long-term implications for retirement readiness but also for financial markets as well.

[SPEAKER_03]: Also got a couple other important stories to bring you today, including one on the great rent divergence between different geographical areas.

[SPEAKER_03]: Another story on student loans, and should we have time at the end of the show, the 23-hour trading day.

[SPEAKER_03]: We also have some voice bank calls, ready to play and clean one on the state street, spider S&P 500 ETF, trust to this Tigresspy and another on 529 plans.

[SPEAKER_03]: We also have some questions that came in from the comment section of the Invest Talk YouTube channel.

[SPEAKER_03]: Go into break.

[SPEAKER_03]: Please remember, you can call anytime, and leave your questions on the Invest Talk and Voice Bank.

[SPEAKER_03]: And if you're listening right now, VR Live streamer on aim 1220, the Bay Area, you can call now at 88899 chart.

[SPEAKER_03]: When you come back, we'll talk about today's market activity.

[SPEAKER_05]: It's official.

[SPEAKER_05]: Total lifetime downloads for the Invest Talk podcast are now more than 63 million.

[SPEAKER_05]: Luke Guerrero is here now, taking your calls live.

[SPEAKER_05]: Invest Talk, 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_03]: 888-99 chart is the number.

[SPEAKER_03]: If you want to get through a live before the long holiday weekend, before we answer another listener question,

[SPEAKER_03]: dive into the market today, where stocks reversed some of the gains we saw the past couple days.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's right, the Dow is down 51 BIPs, S&P 500 down 38 NASDAQ down 29, Russell 2000, though, finished positive 25 basis points on.

[SPEAKER_03]: The day, now the S&P and Nasdaq in spite of this and really in spite of how we started off, the week still still locks and pretty modest weekly gains, some of the names that have struggled or continuing to struggle.

[SPEAKER_03]: Software, a big straggler, Tesla not doing particularly well today, energy, insurance names,

[SPEAKER_03]: amongst the worst performers on the day.

[SPEAKER_03]: At the same time, we saw a bit of a resurgence from some eyes, from memory names, from networking and communication names, from building products, housing-related retail names.

[SPEAKER_03]: On the bottom side treasuries, a bit mixed.

[SPEAKER_03]: You did see some curve flattening, short end yields were up.

[SPEAKER_03]: Two to three basis points, though did come off of the highs we saw earlier in the trading session.

[SPEAKER_03]: Dollar index up 20 bips gold off 1.4 silver down 1.4 is well and crude oil up about 20 basis points on the debt.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now, overall,

[SPEAKER_03]: There's kind of a whip-solve the week, you know, or rather of a week.

[SPEAKER_03]: The market really ending on a bit of a defensive note with breath pretty solidly negative.

[SPEAKER_03]: And of course, this comes on the heel of what was a very strong, certainly stronger than expected August Jobs report.

[SPEAKER_03]: But it's kind of unclear if any of that is going to have a huge impact on September FOMC, especially because we get CPI data out next week, and the current narrative is seemingly focused on what we talked about yesterday and what Worst talked about last Friday, which is persistently above target inflation.

[SPEAKER_03]: Other than that report,

[SPEAKER_03]: You know, it was a pretty quiet session not much news ahead of the Labor Day weekend.

[SPEAKER_03]: We did get some earnings, notably softwares results, pretty underwhelming.

[SPEAKER_03]: And then from a geopolitical front, nothing really incremental when it comes to a US Iran conflict.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now, diving in a little bit to that job's report, August non-Farm payrolls employment was up 162,000, I'm sorry, well ahead of the 55,000 consensus, and certainly ahead of July's 21,000 number, which was revised up to 23,000,

[SPEAKER_03]: The employer rate held steady at 4.1% as expected labor force participation, actually took up after we've seen some consecutive drops, averagerally earnings up 30 bips month over month, was in line with consensus following that soft July number we saw.

[SPEAKER_03]: So overall, very resilient economy, very resilient labor market, maybe giving the Fed a little bit more room to hike rates.

[SPEAKER_03]: I know I've mentioned it a couple of times.

[SPEAKER_03]: I'll do it one more time.

[SPEAKER_03]: The market is closed on Monday for the Labor Day.

[SPEAKER_03]: Holiday Tuesday, we're getting NFI, be small business optimism in New York fed inflation expectations and consumer credit, weekly ADP private payrolls is out on Wednesday.

[SPEAKER_03]: PPI claims the highlight on Thursday and CPI and preliminary university Michigan consumer sentiment, as well as inflation expectations, cap off the week on Friday.

[SPEAKER_03]: Looks like we got plenty of time.

[SPEAKER_03]: So why don't we answer a listener question now?

[SPEAKER_10]: Hey guys, I have a doctor, she's the most one years old, and I'm looking to start taking money for her and I'm just wondering what the best options that would be, whether to get a type of 529 plan before, I'm just wondering if I go that route, you can give like a 30 second overview of what that scale meant to get for the program before that you can actually buy a 529 plan for any states or have to actually live in that state.

[SPEAKER_10]: One or two options, we're talking about the best states to know it.

[SPEAKER_10]: Thanks so much for guys doing appreciate it.

[SPEAKER_03]: Yes, so five twenty nine are great ways to save for your child or a child you like, you know, family members, child, somebody who you're close with who you want to save, save for their education, you can do it as well.

[SPEAKER_03]: It doesn't have to be your immediate child.

[SPEAKER_03]: But what you do and you're correct there, you can open up a five twenty nine,

[SPEAKER_03]: any state regardless of where you live.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now I would encourage you to check your home state first because I think roughly 30 states offer a state income tax deduction for contributions to their own plan.

[SPEAKER_03]: So if your state has new income tax, no deduction, you know, shop nationally, looking for those lowest fees in those investment options.

[SPEAKER_03]: We typically see

[SPEAKER_03]: In terms of the best couple plans, Utah is consistently rated number one.

[SPEAKER_03]: Their expense ratios are incredibly low.

[SPEAKER_03]: Their investment options are excellent.

[SPEAKER_03]: Their Vanguard based investment options Nevada Vanguard 529.

[SPEAKER_03]: Also has Vanguard index funds.

[SPEAKER_03]: Those are rock bottom cost.

[SPEAKER_03]: You don't have a state residency requirement.

[SPEAKER_03]: New York's plan is Vanguard managed.

[SPEAKER_03]: And New York residents get up to $10,000 state tax deduction.

[SPEAKER_03]: $5,000 if you're a single parent.

[SPEAKER_03]: Options are great.

[SPEAKER_03]: There's a lot of options out there, certainly do your own research as well and keep in mind that there can be benefits for you if you live in the state in what you have the plan.

[SPEAKER_03]: Thanks to the call.

[SPEAKER_03]: All right, I had to do break.

[SPEAKER_03]: But don't let that stop you.

[SPEAKER_03]: I'm here and I am ready for your question.

[SPEAKER_03]: So pick up that phone and dial that number.

[SPEAKER_03]: 888-99 chart.

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[SPEAKER_06]: You're the best person to ask it.

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[SPEAKER_10]: I'll really appreciate it if you could give me an entry point for a company called Metronic MDP.

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[SPEAKER_03]: After roughly four years of falling or flat rents, U.S. apartment rents have turned positive.

[SPEAKER_03]: Up 90 basis points year by year in August, with occupancy at 95.5% now that's the eighth monthly increase of 2026, and the supply wave that broke the rental market, seems to be ending.

[SPEAKER_03]: Complations dropped to about 340,000 to 100 units in the year through Q2.

[SPEAKER_03]: That's the first time below the decade average in about 3 years.

[SPEAKER_03]: The pipeline of new apartments that flooded Sunbelt markets from 22 to 25.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's drying up fewer starts, higher construction costs, and also importantly, tighter lending standards.

[SPEAKER_03]: That has choked off.

[SPEAKER_03]: future supply meanwhile demand absorbed about 271,300 units that's below the decade average of 340,000 but still strong enough that occupancy is climate.

[SPEAKER_03]: But the national number and we talk about all the time how large scale data the top line doesn't tell you much.

[SPEAKER_03]: Same situation here the national number hides a split that's getting genuinely extreme.

[SPEAKER_03]: San Jose, 8.7, Virginia Beach, 6.5.

[SPEAKER_03]: These markets are where very little new supply was built because local regulation, ninbies, high construction costs.

[SPEAKER_03]: All those things tend to keep developers out.

[SPEAKER_03]: And when things are scarce, and there's demand, I don't got to tell you what happens, prices go up.

[SPEAKER_03]: On the other side, you have places like San Antonio, with occupancy just 93% renter down to, or sorry, 3.7.

[SPEAKER_03]: Charlotte, Tampa, Houston, down nearly 2%.

[SPEAKER_03]: These are markets that built incredibly aggressively during the pandemic, now they're drowning in supply.

[SPEAKER_03]: Houston has $358.9 million of apartments with CNBS loans in special service and independent landlords.

[SPEAKER_03]: There are on-time collections nationally or 83.2% multi-family and OI growth is down to 1.8.

[SPEAKER_03]: So that's a bit of a dichotomy there.

[SPEAKER_03]: The same asset class that is producing 14% rent growth in one area and special servicing transfers in another.

[SPEAKER_03]: Geography is doing more work in sector right now.

[SPEAKER_03]: If you want to read or if you want rental property, multifamily isn't really a single trade anymore.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's two completely different markets wearing the same label.

[SPEAKER_03]: And this matters a lot for, yes, your portfolio, especially if you own a multifamily home.

[SPEAKER_03]: But advantage for inflation in the Fed, shelters about a third of CPI, it's 3.2% year over your increase in July, was roughly two thirds of the entire monthly CPI increase.

[SPEAKER_03]: So if completions keep falling while demand holds, and that's kind of what the data's suggesting, does shelter inflation reaccelerate in 27?

[SPEAKER_03]: Cause if it does, the Fed's supercent target, say bye bye.

[SPEAKER_03]: And that changes everything about the rate path.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now, if you're a renter, wondering whether the weight and renter trade still works, the events we are?

[SPEAKER_03]: If you're in the overbuilt sunbelt,

[SPEAKER_03]: Yes, rents are flat to falling.

[SPEAKER_03]: Concessions are all over the place.

[SPEAKER_03]: Landlords are competing for tenants.

[SPEAKER_03]: In coastal markets, rents are surging.

[SPEAKER_03]: The math is shifting.

[SPEAKER_03]: The rent savings that made waiting attractive are being eaten by eight to 14% annual increases and at some point, the weight and rent trade becomes the, we're paying more every single year trade.

[SPEAKER_03]: Let's keep things going and roll in another listener question now.

[SPEAKER_02]: Hi, this is Daniel from Crosby Texas, calling it up to stock ticker, H-U-R-B, H-N-R-B.

[SPEAKER_02]: H-N-R-B was interested in your thoughts on this one, and what you think is a good interview.

[SPEAKER_02]: Thank you.

[SPEAKER_03]: H-N-R-B.

[SPEAKER_03]: H-R-B.

[SPEAKER_03]: is the how big is this guy now it's consumer services company so they do tax tax return preparation so the big competitor to turbo tax into it it's a far smaller company than into it it's about 6.2 billion dollars in its market cap.

[SPEAKER_03]: had a bit of a drawdown heading into 2026 and then kind of flatline for a little bit but it's been doing really well this year.

[SPEAKER_03]: Specifically in the last three months, it's up 30.93% in the past three months, it's up 12.57% year to date.

[SPEAKER_03]: Revenue, look pretty solid last quarter.

[SPEAKER_03]: That was up 3.1 percent.

[SPEAKER_03]: That was a beat, just a DPS.

[SPEAKER_03]: That was a beat by roughly 3 to 7 percent.

[SPEAKER_03]: Revenue guidance held steady, EBITDA guidance held steady.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think one of the best things that came out of the most recent guidance is a dividend raise of about 10 percent.

[SPEAKER_03]: That certainly was a boon for the stock.

[SPEAKER_03]: When the stock had already run up about 17.4% over the month heading into earnings, which in a lot of ways outpaste not only the overall market but the industry, post earnings is a huge pop, it kind of drew down a little bit.

[SPEAKER_03]: Is this a little rough, right?

[SPEAKER_03]: They had a genuinely strong finish to the record fiscal year and the market rewarded it.

[SPEAKER_03]: But...

[SPEAKER_03]: The guided jump in the effective tax rate next year will probably make 20, 20, 70 PS growth, look more modest on paper, meaning the underlying business, although it looks strong this year, is likely to snap back a little bit to reality in the coming year, and that's why this thing's trading at eight times priced for looking here in England.

[SPEAKER_03]: So, it's at a run, nothing really exciting in my mind.

[SPEAKER_03]: That is, ticker HRB, H&R block.

[SPEAKER_03]: All right, folks, when we come back,

[SPEAKER_03]: more answers to your finance and investment questions.

[SPEAKER_04]: at KPP Financial.

[SPEAKER_04]: Accountability means more than advice.

[SPEAKER_04]: It means we invest alongside you.

[SPEAKER_04]: Through our parallel investing approach, when we recommend an investment for clients, one or more KPP principles invest their own capital at the same time.

[SPEAKER_04]: Same day, same price, same percentage.

[SPEAKER_04]: If your portfolio moves, ours does too.

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[SPEAKER_04]: Visit investtalk.com to get your free portfolio review.

[SPEAKER_05]: The weekend is here or almost here, but you've got an answer to investment questions, so step up and call in.

[SPEAKER_05]: Invest talk, 88899, chart.

[SPEAKER_03]: Betterment, published the results of its 2026 retail investor survey recently.

[SPEAKER_03]: Well, they did as they pulled a thousand U.S. retail investors across four generations and one number, which we've already teased a couple of times here, gave me a bit of a pain in my chest, 52% of Gen Z, I'm using air quotes, you can't say I'm investors, said that they have redirected money originally intended for investing into sports gambling.

[SPEAKER_03]: actually redirected it.

[SPEAKER_03]: Money that was supposed to go into a brokerage account or a retirement fund ended up on a sports book.

[SPEAKER_03]: 26% describes sports betting as a deliberate component of their long-term financial strategy.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now I'm rubbing my head.

[SPEAKER_03]: 14% redirect fund multiple times per month.

[SPEAKER_03]: and only 34% of respondents who are Gen Z, do not participate in any form of sports wagering at all.

[SPEAKER_03]: Two-thirds of the youngest investing generation isn't investing.

[SPEAKER_03]: They're gambling.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now it's not all their money, but it's still an important portion here.

[SPEAKER_03]: Broadly speaking, gambling is doing fine in America.

[SPEAKER_03]: in 2025 alone.

[SPEAKER_03]: That's up from 13 billion in 2019, seven years, 1200% difference.

[SPEAKER_03]: That is in a lot of ways an industry that has now captured a public.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now I want to be careful here.

[SPEAKER_03]: I don't want to be the guy yelling at clouds, right?

[SPEAKER_03]: Every generation makes financial mistakes.

[SPEAKER_03]: A lot of boomers loaded up on individual stocks in the 90s.

[SPEAKER_03]: Gen X, they traded their savings during the dot com bubble.

[SPEAKER_03]: Millennials, a lot of them chase crypto and bought those NFTs.

[SPEAKER_03]: Every generation has its version of, I think this is going to be different.

[SPEAKER_03]: I figured out a shortcut.

[SPEAKER_03]: But sports betting is kind of structurally different from those mistakes.

[SPEAKER_03]: When you buy a stock, even a speculative one, even if you're over concentrated and under-diversified you own a fractional piece of the business.

[SPEAKER_03]: If the business does well, you do well.

[SPEAKER_03]: Over time, equities as an asset class have returned roughly 10% annually, there's positive expected value there.

[SPEAKER_03]: The house does not take a cut of your upside.

[SPEAKER_03]: You don't need to be right, 52.4% of the time just to break even.

[SPEAKER_03]: Gambling's the opposite.

[SPEAKER_03]: The sports book takes a margin on every bet.

[SPEAKER_03]: The VIG or the juice typically filed a 4.5 to 10% of the wager.

[SPEAKER_03]: To break even against the VIG, you need to win about 52.4% of your bets on standard odds.

[SPEAKER_03]: Professional sports betters, the ones who do this for a living, with teams of analysts and proprietary models, average like 53 to 55% win rates.

[SPEAKER_03]: the average recreational better wins about 45% of the time.

[SPEAKER_03]: So you can see the math here is intentionally deliberately designed to take your money slowly but reliably.

[SPEAKER_03]: The compounding cost two of diverting even modest amounts.

[SPEAKER_03]: If you're one of these people here, you're not going to want to hear it because if you're 22 years old and you take $200 a month of investing into sports betting,

[SPEAKER_03]: If instead you invested it at the market's historical 10% average annual return in 40 years at $862, that $200 a month has become approximately 1.3 million.

[SPEAKER_03]: Not 2,400 times 40, that's $9,696,000, $1.3 million that is compounding you are giving up and because sports betting has a negative expected value, the $200 a month is not growing.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's being ground down.

[SPEAKER_03]: Sarah Levy, Betterment CEO, said it directly.

[SPEAKER_03]: When a prediction marketer sportsbook starts to feel like a retirement strategy, we have a problem.

[SPEAKER_03]: And I'd go even further, it's not start to feel like.

[SPEAKER_03]: 26% of Gen Z already treats it that way.

[SPEAKER_03]: The problem isn't,

[SPEAKER_03]: Some thing out in the future, the problem is in a lot of ways now.

[SPEAKER_03]: And the social media angle has absolutely amplified the damage.

[SPEAKER_03]: 60% of Gen Z gets their financial news from social media up from 45% in 2024.

[SPEAKER_03]: Only 21%.

[SPEAKER_03]: site at a financial advisor, social media is where sports book ads are heavy, we're betting influencers, show off their wins without disclosing their losses and where the line between investment content and gambling promotion has been completely erased.

[SPEAKER_03]: TikTok doesn't distinguish between a video explaining dollar cost averaging and one showing a $50,000 partlay hitting.

[SPEAKER_03]: They're served by the exact same algorithm, and the gamification of finance and financialization of gambling have merged into a single ecosystem with Gen Z clearly the target audience.

[SPEAKER_03]: Northwestern Mutual found that 80% of Gen Z respondents who

[SPEAKER_03]: and are investing in speculative assets, believe those investments will help them reach their goals faster than traditional methods.

[SPEAKER_03]: 80%.

[SPEAKER_03]: They believe it works better than the thing that actually over time has proven to work.

[SPEAKER_03]: It is far likely that you listening out there are not a member of Gen Z.

[SPEAKER_03]: because there are more people who are not Gen Z than there are.

[SPEAKER_03]: There are Gen Z.

[SPEAKER_03]: So if you're a parent or a grandparents listening, I think this is a conversation worth having with those in your life that are Gen Z.

[SPEAKER_03]: You know, not a lecture, especially kids don't want to be lectured.

[SPEAKER_03]: Talk about the math, talk about the risks about what $200 a month actually becomes over 40 years.

[SPEAKER_03]: Because the sports books are spending billions of dollars to make sure nobody hears that.

[SPEAKER_03]: And if the people who care about these people who are gambling away their life savings don't tell them, nobody's going to.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's keeping things moving and a segue back to the Investock Voice Bank, 8-8-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_07]: Hey Investock, real quick observation, really love the also pump and music.

[SPEAKER_07]: I dig it.

[SPEAKER_07]: Okay, so I'm in my late 50s.

[SPEAKER_07]: I have mixed up SPY along with the individual stocks and areas like metals, energy, defense and technology.

[SPEAKER_07]: I usually try not to put more than about 5% into any one stock, my question is should I be putting more of my money into SPY and keeping my individual stock fixed as a smaller part of the portfolio and if so what would be a good percentage split appreciate the show guys I listen to the podcast for the answer have a good day.

[SPEAKER_03]: That's a great question, and I wish I had seven hours to answer this because there's a lot that I want to dissect here.

[SPEAKER_03]: So the first thing is, is you're describing essentially what's a core satellite strategy of your core holdings, it's your diversified ETF, and then you have your satellite holdings.

[SPEAKER_03]: Your goal is to invest in things that might be more oriented towards growth, a bit riskier, and then have the correlations between that and all your assets in the S&P ETF, lower your overall risk profile.

[SPEAKER_03]: Something we've talked about a lot though that I think is missed is that the S&P 500 is yes, less risky than its parts.

[SPEAKER_03]: But it's become less and less a diversified ETF now.

[SPEAKER_03]: Meaning, I think the argument that the S&P itself is your core can be a little flawed.

[SPEAKER_03]: So much of the index is tied up in tech, so much of the index is tied up in seven names.

[SPEAKER_03]: That it isn't your father's index.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so I would argue your core holding should be even more broadly diversified.

[SPEAKER_03]: Should be more oriented towards names that aren't just the mag seven or the AI names of the day.

[SPEAKER_03]: I think the answer to this question also depends wholly on how old you are.

[SPEAKER_03]: Your wrist tolerance level.

[SPEAKER_03]: But I think the point I want to hammer home here is don't consider the S&P to be the safe part of your portfolio.

[SPEAKER_03]: I've said this so many times on the show.

[SPEAKER_03]: To clients, one of the most uncertain things about investing isn't what your return is going to be, but it's when you need your money.

[SPEAKER_03]: Somebody who did everything right, heading into 2008 and needed their money in January of 2009, where out of luck,

[SPEAKER_03]: because volatility in your portfolio matters, so lowering your overall risk is critical when deciding what the core of your portfolio is going to be.

[SPEAKER_03]: Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_03]: It is Friday, and on Friday's, I like to run down some key benchmark numbers for you.

[SPEAKER_03]: The two-year treasury is at 437 last week, it was 436, 243 weeks ago, it was 64 basis points.

[SPEAKER_03]: The 10-year, 477 today for prospective last week, it was 473, 241 weeks back, it was 1.762.

[SPEAKER_03]: Gold 4413 per ounce today that it's $42 less than last week.

[SPEAKER_03]: 57 weeks ago is 3348 and 236 weeks back is 1806.

[SPEAKER_03]: Silver 6581 per ounce that is 57 cents less than last week.

[SPEAKER_03]: 134 weeks ago is 2280 and looking back 234 weeks silver was 2394.

[SPEAKER_03]: Oil, $90.84 per barrel that is $7.44 higher than last week, 102 weeks goes, 67,79, 144 weeks back.

[SPEAKER_03]: It was 74,30, and 240 feet a week ago, it was 66,62.

[SPEAKER_03]: National average for a gallon of regular gasoline is 414.

[SPEAKER_03]: That is six cents higher from last week.

[SPEAKER_03]: Higher than 170 weeks ago, and it was 356.

[SPEAKER_03]: But lower than 218 weeks back when it was 425.

[SPEAKER_03]: In California, gas is $5.80 per gallon.

[SPEAKER_03]: I saw it was $7.00 diesel was $7.15 at the Costco by me, at Costco, where gas tends to be cheaper.

[SPEAKER_03]: Okay, I'll stop ranting.

[SPEAKER_03]: Anyway, $5.80 per gallon that is 16 cents higher than last week.

[SPEAKER_03]: 147 weeks back, it was $5.32, 223 weeks back, it was $5.87.

[SPEAKER_03]: In Nevada, or Nevada, depending where you are,

[SPEAKER_03]: I've been told it's Nevada.

[SPEAKER_03]: Gas is averaging 494 per gallon today that is 86 cents less than gas in California.

[SPEAKER_03]: All right, let's go with another listener question now.

[SPEAKER_08]: Hi, this is A-Trance from Texas, and I had a question regarding KDP, current doctor pepper.

[SPEAKER_08]: It did a good time.

[SPEAKER_08]: Based on the financials to get in.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's like KDP, which is a curieged doctor pepper.

[SPEAKER_03]: Interesting combination of drinks I would say.

[SPEAKER_03]: If those of you don't know, Kira, of course, the coffee company, they do marketing manufacture distribution of not just coffee, but a whole bunch of IP, they got, they got Dr. Pepper, which is obviously in the name of the company, they got Canada Drive, they got Snapple, and W7 up, Sunquit, Sunquit, Squirt, which is one of my favorite sodas that nobody seems to like.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's great food soda.

[SPEAKER_03]: And a bunch of other products.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now, this company is a $45 billion market cap company.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's about 16.35% year to date.

[SPEAKER_03]: Up just under 12% over the past 52 weeks.

[SPEAKER_03]: And it was really ranging for a while between $30 and $40 per share.

[SPEAKER_03]: And it dropped off in August of last year.

[SPEAKER_03]: It is since climbed up back a little bit to $32.59.

[SPEAKER_03]: Taking a look at the financials here, because the most recent earnings were reported on August 6th, Net revenue had a beat by about 90 BIPs.

[SPEAKER_03]: So this is a great example.

[SPEAKER_03]: If you look at this, you see revenue in 2024, 15.35 billion.

[SPEAKER_03]: Revenue in 2025, 16.6 billion.

[SPEAKER_03]: Revenue in 2026, expected 26.3 billion.

[SPEAKER_03]: You look at that and go,

[SPEAKER_03]: Whoa, what is going on here?

[SPEAKER_03]: Well, it's almost entirely due to JDEP's acquisition.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now, being consolidated.

[SPEAKER_03]: So the legacy sales was up 7.3%, but the net sales is up 75.6.

[SPEAKER_03]: So it's really important to dive into these numbers and understand what the growth looks like.

[SPEAKER_03]: And so this period, it becomes a little bit confusing.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now, in terms of guidance, they guided upwards on the total net sales, including about 8.5 billion of that from this acquisition.

[SPEAKER_03]: The legacy business is expected to grow for to 6%, they're expecting and hoping towards the high end.

[SPEAKER_03]: And you saw a modest reaction on the day.

[SPEAKER_03]: You saw a bit of a pronounced jump, but it started to taper off after the most recent earnings.

[SPEAKER_03]: Now, it's ranging back in the 32 level.

[SPEAKER_03]: I don't want to diminish the beat, right?

[SPEAKER_03]: It is a beat on both top and bottom line and reaffirming your guidance.

[SPEAKER_03]: But there's a bit of tension here.

[SPEAKER_03]: You have the core US coffee business and it's softer than a lot of them are anticipated.

[SPEAKER_03]: Then you have that revenue growth being purely acquisition focused.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's not organic strength.

[SPEAKER_03]: So the real story here when you say good earnings is less about this.

[SPEAKER_03]: quarter and more about how cleanly the integration proceeds ahead of the plan to split in 2027.

[SPEAKER_03]: So I would take a step back.

[SPEAKER_03]: I would want to see what the growth is in their traditional segments for another quarter before I would look to enter a position here and in terms of valuation, I mean it's trading far below its average here to low end for a reason.

[SPEAKER_03]: You know, one thing I want to plug on our investor on YouTube channel, because yes, we do do YouTube specific content just enhances a weekend video.

[SPEAKER_03]: We have our deeper focus segment.

[SPEAKER_03]: We have old investor classroom content.

[SPEAKER_03]: But I think one of the things that is always good to revisit, especially because so much of it, we designed it in an ever green way to help educate you all, is that over to our webinar series?

[SPEAKER_03]: I think it's great on multiple fronts.

[SPEAKER_03]: One because we bring you a topic.

[SPEAKER_03]: And too, because there are questions that are answered live from listeners just like yourself, which help us steer it towards the things that matter most to you.

[SPEAKER_03]: So even if you haven't participated in one yet, I encourage you to head over to our YouTube channel and Vestock with two teas in there and check out our webinar series.

[SPEAKER_03]: While you're at it, leave it in the comment section what you would like us to talk about next.

[SPEAKER_03]: This is Investock.

[SPEAKER_03]: I'm Lou Greer.

[SPEAKER_03]: We have one goal here and that's to help you achieve your financial freedom or we're continues after the break.

[SPEAKER_03]: So if you have a question that is burning in your mind that you cannot wait to have answered until Tuesday because Monday's a holiday pick up that phone and dial 88 99 chart.

[SPEAKER_10]: I would like to know a more about a company which I've been tracking for some time.

[SPEAKER_06]: Luke Guerrero is here and ready to tackle your questions.

[SPEAKER_09]: And I was just wondering, are there any investment accounts with different banks as you would recommend something that may offer a good resources?

[SPEAKER_06]: Don't forget to call, in Best Talk, 888-99, chart.

[SPEAKER_05]: Every investor is working to build a secure financial future.

[SPEAKER_05]: How they get there and when they get there, that depends on many variables.

[SPEAKER_05]: The more you learn about how the market works, the better your chances.

[SPEAKER_05]: So don't forget to call, in Vestalk.

[SPEAKER_05]: 888-99, chart.

[SPEAKER_03]: Roughly 7 million federal student loan borrowers are currently parked in forbearance from the SAVE SAVE program.

[SPEAKER_03]: And that forbearance is ended.

[SPEAKER_03]: Serviceers started sending 90 day notices on July 1st.

[SPEAKER_03]: Most of those forbearance periods expire by the end of this month.

[SPEAKER_03]: And then payments are set to restart in October and November.

[SPEAKER_03]: and there's some detail hidden in this that could cost people thousands of dollars because if you do nothing you are auto enrolled in the standard repayment plan that's the plan with the highest monthly payment of any repayment option it's not income driven it does not adjust for how much you earn is a fixed amount based on your loan balance and a 10 year payoff schedule.

[SPEAKER_03]: For a borrower who has $40,000 in federal loans at six and a half percent, the standard plan payment is about $454 per month.

[SPEAKER_03]: An income driven plan could be $150 to $250, depending on income and family size.

[SPEAKER_03]: The difference is, well, math, $2003 a month.

[SPEAKER_03]: Money that comes out of a household budget that's already dealing with 4% food inflation,

[SPEAKER_03]: The new revised adjusted pay as you were in plan.

[SPEAKER_03]: And that is, wrap, because we always need an acronym.

[SPEAKER_03]: Launched in July.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's the replacement for the save plan that was struck down by the courts.

[SPEAKER_03]: Income contingent repayment and pay as you were in or sunsetting within two years.

[SPEAKER_03]: So if you need to switch to an income driven plan, wrap or standard IBR are your options.

[SPEAKER_03]: But you have to actively choose.

[SPEAKER_03]: Doing nothing defaults you into the most expensive plan.

[SPEAKER_03]: Understandably, there's going to be some credit consequences here.

[SPEAKER_03]: Delinquencies hit your credit report at 90 days past due, defaults occur at 270, and may trigger wage garnishments, tax refund offsets, collection fees.

[SPEAKER_03]: Student loan delinquencies had just fallen to 7.83% from 12.88% in the prior quarter, but that decline was almost entirely because payment was paused.

[SPEAKER_03]: When 7 million borrowers start getting bills again,

[SPEAKER_03]: I'm guessing that number's going up.

[SPEAKER_03]: And this isn't just a young person's problem.

[SPEAKER_03]: Parents, grandparents who co-signed loans, or took out parent plus loans, they're just as affected.

[SPEAKER_03]: The four parents applied to federal loans regardless of borrowers age.

[SPEAKER_03]: A retiree with parent plus balances is about to get a payment notice that was supposed to restart right alongside their fixed income budget.

[SPEAKER_03]: So the action items straightforward.

[SPEAKER_03]: Login to student aid.gov.

[SPEAKER_03]: Before the end of September, check your loan status.

[SPEAKER_03]: If you're in safe forbearance, select a repayment plan, wrap or IBR, before the auto enrollment kicks in.

[SPEAKER_03]: It'll probably take you about 15 minutes, but it'll definitely cost you a lot less in the longer.

[SPEAKER_03]: Do we have enough time for a quick question?

[SPEAKER_10]: My question is about hollow auto network,

[SPEAKER_10]: I was just wondering what your opinion is on future performance of the stock and if it's in you to hold the stock or sell it and kind of think about it that I've gained over the years.

[SPEAKER_03]: So Palo Alto Networks, it's a cyber security company I got to answer this one pretty quickly.

[SPEAKER_03]: Cyber security is incredibly important.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's going to continue to be important as more people are moving towards cloud infrastructure.

[SPEAKER_03]: This company in particular has had a pretty solid time, it's revenue beat, it's earnings beat, it's actually a name that we've

[SPEAKER_03]: kind of been looking at when we've been thinking about how to diversify within the tech sector.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's already up 80% year to date, which means its valuations have started climbing as well.

[SPEAKER_03]: I'll be it.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's now trading at 78 times price to forward looking earnings.

[SPEAKER_03]: You know, this is one of the ones for me that we're keeping on our watch list for now because it's a little bit expensive.

[SPEAKER_03]: But in short, I like the company, just not of these prices.

[SPEAKER_03]: Thanks to the call.

[SPEAKER_03]: But we did it.

[SPEAKER_03]: We answered one final question before we head off into the long weekend.

[SPEAKER_03]: I'm Luke Guerrero, and I want to thank you for listening and encourage you to tell your friends and family members about our free podcast downloads.

[SPEAKER_03]: You can of course find them at iTunes and Spotify while you're over there.

[SPEAKER_03]: Really appreciate it if you left us a rate and review.

[SPEAKER_03]: Additionally, I've already said it once, but I encourage you to check out our YouTube channel in Vestock with two T's and maybe over this long holiday weekend head over to Investock.com and schedule your free portfolio review because I think it's always good to get a second set of eyes on things before something goes wrong, not after.

[SPEAKER_03]: Independent thinking, shared success.

[SPEAKER_03]: This is Investock.

[SPEAKER_03]: Enjoy your long weekend.

[SPEAKER_06]: Invest talk is a trademark of KPP financial, because of the nature of the interactive dialogue inherent in the format of this program.

[SPEAKER_06]: It's important for the listener to understand that not all comments made will apply to them.

[SPEAKER_06]: Specifically, nothing said she'll be taken to be investment advice.

[SPEAKER_06]: or shell statements on this program be considered an offer to buy or sell security.

[SPEAKER_06]: Because such advice is rendered solely on an individual basis, and at times will require that the investor review a perspective before investing.

[SPEAKER_06]: Invest talk is a copyrighted program of Klein, Pavlis, and Peasley Financial, a registered investment advisor firm, which retains all rights.

[SPEAKER_06]: For more information regarding KPP's investment advisors,

[SPEAKER_06]: Thank you for listening and your comments and questions are welcome on our 24-hour listener line at 888-99 chart.