[SPEAKER_01]: This is Invest Talk, from KPP Financial, helping investors make sense of the markets one day at a time.

[SPEAKER_01]: Here's your host, Justin Klein.

[SPEAKER_02]: Good afternoon, fellow investors, and welcome back to another week of Invest Talk.

[SPEAKER_02]: This is our Monday, September 14th, 2026 edition.

[SPEAKER_02]: going to be a wild week, we already had a very interesting kickoff with the news over the weekend around AI safety concerns and we have the fed meaning coming up in just a couple of days.

[SPEAKER_02]: So this promises to be a very explosive week in markets.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now I'm Justin Klein and my job here.

[SPEAKER_02]: Today and every day is helping you come a better investor not just give you the headlines

[SPEAKER_02]: What risks there are in markets, what opportunities we're seeing, et cetera, it's really about instilling the right mindset for you guys so that you can make better decisions with your money consistently.

[SPEAKER_02]: So you're not chasing headlines, you're not chasing performance, you're just chasing good solid investments.

[SPEAKER_02]: that have good risk versus reward and can help you achieve your long-term goals.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's what money in general is all about.

[SPEAKER_02]: We want to be able to use it.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's not like you just saved it, never touch it.

[SPEAKER_02]: There are ways to think about how to save and how to spend and how to invest.

[SPEAKER_02]: And it was just called Invest Talk, but anything money related we are here to speak up.

[SPEAKER_02]: And speaking of that, quick heads up.

[SPEAKER_02]: Mark your calendars for October 24th.

[SPEAKER_02]: You're invited to join the KPP team and guess experts for our in-person retirement summit.

[SPEAKER_02]: It is free, but seating is limited and you must pre-register at investtalk.com.

[SPEAKER_02]: This is an in-person event.

[SPEAKER_02]: And now we do a lot of webinars.

[SPEAKER_02]: We're getting back to it.

[SPEAKER_02]: We used to do a lot of in-person events back pre-COVID.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now is our first.

[SPEAKER_02]: real live in-person event.

[SPEAKER_02]: We're excited for it.

[SPEAKER_02]: It is an Irvine California.

[SPEAKER_02]: Three of charge, but once again, seeding is very limited.

[SPEAKER_02]: You're going to hit a limit at some point and then we're going to be wait list.

[SPEAKER_02]: So get in before that happens.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now, just the bit.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm going to talk about today's Mark performance and run down some show topics.

[SPEAKER_02]: But first, as usual, we'll tackle this first call a question now.

[SPEAKER_05]: My question is on the stock, UHT, universal health reality income.

[SPEAKER_05]: I was just wondering what your thought would be.

[SPEAKER_05]: And again, this is Steve from Virginia.

[SPEAKER_05]: Thank you.

[SPEAKER_02]: Alright, Steve from Virginia.

[SPEAKER_02]: Let's take a look at UHT, universal health reality income.

[SPEAKER_02]: It operates a real estate investment.

[SPEAKER_02]: Trust through provides health care and human service related services.

[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.

[SPEAKER_02]: So the first thing that sticks out, especially for anybody looking to buy a wheat for the most part, is the income.

[SPEAKER_02]: And it does have a pretty good yield, 7.3%.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now, in this environment, rates are higher.

[SPEAKER_02]: So the red flag, higher rates aren't as big of a red flag as they had been in the past.

[SPEAKER_02]: But anything, you know, six, seven percent or more is probably going to be a bit of a red flag and saying is this high yield really worth it is it's sustainable.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now, I'm looking at the numbers here, if he cash flow is positive, that's good, but it's only positive by about four 48 million dollars.

[SPEAKER_02]: Has started a roll over funds for operation.

[SPEAKER_02]: have moved higher, but they've been all over the place.

[SPEAKER_02]: Back in 2019, there's a dollar, 38.

[SPEAKER_02]: And for everyone out there, funds for operation is effectively like the earnings per share for a regular company.

[SPEAKER_02]: Funds for operation is how you measure the income from these properties for a reed, any type of reed, okay?

[SPEAKER_02]: So just think of funds for operation, kind of like earnings per share.

[SPEAKER_02]: Those $3.8 and $2.8 and $7.9 and $2.21, then down to $1.11 and $2.23.

[SPEAKER_02]: $3, then back up last year to $3.44 and this year $3.351 and $3.61.

[SPEAKER_02]: Next year.

[SPEAKER_02]: So you're seeing it flatten out at that level.

[SPEAKER_02]: I would imagine, here, there was some sort of a merger acquisition I have to go back and look at that history, but this is a name that's certainly following from Grace.

[SPEAKER_02]: Back in, let's see, pre-COVID, it was moving higher in a significant way.

[SPEAKER_02]: It was at $130 plus per share, then it fell in bed.

[SPEAKER_02]: And now it's at a $41 per share.

[SPEAKER_02]: Let's look at the dividend.

[SPEAKER_02]: Parasius 214% which is kind of high,

[SPEAKER_02]: So it does feel confident.

[SPEAKER_02]: It can pay that dividend, I just don't have a ton of confidence, mainly because of the debt.

[SPEAKER_02]: Long-term debt is right around 400 million, and that continues to march higher and higher every single year for the past five plus years.

[SPEAKER_02]: So it's deluding shareholders effectively in order to pay this dividend.

[SPEAKER_02]: a clear low risk investment, it's higher risk, but once again, it is cash flow positive, it does have pretty good profitability, 12.5% return equity, which for a read is pretty good.

[SPEAKER_02]: Overall, I don't like the risk versus reward, but I can see the argument for it.

[SPEAKER_02]: So if you're willing to take a lot of risk, get that 7% yield,

[SPEAKER_02]: than it might be for you.

[SPEAKER_02]: If you think it's the lowest 7%, then absolutely, this is not a discrete, there's not the name for you.

[SPEAKER_02]: Knowing if, let's see, with a great show on Friday, we're looking at the story about world food prices.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's been a four year high, food inflation already baked into the CPI report.

[SPEAKER_02]: Is it?

[SPEAKER_02]: We talked about that.

[SPEAKER_02]: as well as answer questions on Cisco.

[SPEAKER_02]: The color asks about Cisco and if you have an miss it, go check it out.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's where every show is to follow the best talk wherever you get your podcast.

[SPEAKER_02]: And we'll have a lot of ground to cover over the next 45 minutes or so in here's what we have plenty of time for meeting.

[SPEAKER_02]: Our main focus point is about China's rare earth export halts.

[SPEAKER_02]: China's supply chain leverage is becoming a market weapon.

[SPEAKER_02]: Chinese rare firms are starting to halt U.S. shipments, what might that mean for supply chains, both around the world, especially here in America, but things like electric vehicles, defense systems, and what sectors will ultimately be impacted.

[SPEAKER_02]: So we're going to talk about that.

[SPEAKER_02]: We have other topics on the docket as well.

[SPEAKER_02]: Interst rates, one of the, one of the best investors of all time, no, not Warren Buffett, Stanley Drunken Miller, who used to work with Fed Chair, Kevin Worsh, said in a private audience recently that he actually thinks barren costs are a little low despite pressure from the White House to

[SPEAKER_02]: So what does he think rates should be?

[SPEAKER_02]: We'll look at that.

[SPEAKER_02]: Also, we're on the midst of Fed Week and the Fed has kind of two decisions here.

[SPEAKER_02]: Either gains some credibility with the markets by raising rates or not and suffering even higher inflation.

[SPEAKER_02]: We're going to take a look at the trade-offs of the fed decision coming up later this week.

[SPEAKER_02]: We also have voice bank calls, one in regards to investment in land and timber, and then land research LR, CX, and of course, we have questions that came in via the comment section on Invest Talk.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, best talk to you, too.

[SPEAKER_02]: Channel, so we'll get to those as well.

[SPEAKER_02]: But we're gonna do a quick break.

[SPEAKER_02]: Please remember, you can call any time and leave your question on the Invest Talk, voice bank.

[SPEAKER_02]: And if you're listening via a live stream, more possibly an AM1220 in the Bay Area, you can call right now at 8889.

[SPEAKER_02]: Chart next, I'll comment on today's market activity.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's official.

[SPEAKER_01]: Total lifetime downloads for the Invest Talk podcast are now more than 63 million.

[SPEAKER_01]: Justin Klein is here now taking your calls live.

[SPEAKER_01]: Invest Talk 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_02]: Let's go take a look at the market today.

[SPEAKER_02]: It was a, no, we're all a down day, but certainly mixed overall.

[SPEAKER_02]: You have the S&K down about half percent and as deck down a little more than half percent the down down a little more than a quarter per cent.

[SPEAKER_02]: Really the losses were heavily concentrated in large and midcap tech growth, call it.

[SPEAKER_02]: Uh, but certainly tech related on the back of news over the weekend, that it was an essay from Anthropoccio, Dario Amade calling for the slowing of the improvement in an AI worrying that it could be becoming dangerous and maybe wipe out human civilization in a number of years.

[SPEAKER_02]: really dialing back the growth and embedding third-party evaluators into the system and that certainly caused the gap down.

[SPEAKER_02]: We did rally for most of the day so it wasn't that bad of a loss overall.

[SPEAKER_02]: But you did have some major losses and names like Nvidia down 3.3% a lot of the

[SPEAKER_02]: Product manufacturing, exciting convective manufacturing companies, like a land research or applied materials, those were down considerably.

[SPEAKER_02]: You had names like corning, down 13%, what else?

[SPEAKER_02]: Micron down five, broad come down about five.

[SPEAKER_02]: So a lot of the big winners from AI were down anywhere from four to eight percent for the most part, and that's what really dragged down the market as a whole.

[SPEAKER_02]: The Bank of America, CEO Brian Moynihan, there we go, Moynihan.

[SPEAKER_02]: He talked a lot about how trading revenue was likely to be flat over the second quarter and so slow down of growth there.

[SPEAKER_02]: He saw a bank of America down 5% more than Stanley down 3.6, Goldman down about 4% on the day.

[SPEAKER_02]: So trading revenue, anything around.

[SPEAKER_02]: investment related activity, certainly drop views or optimistic on bank, net interest margin, however.

[SPEAKER_02]: So your traditional banks weren't hurt as bad, like a city group went on to Wells Fargon on 1.7, et cetera.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I need anything that's kind of heavily more investment focused, investment bank focused.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's certainly took it on the chin.

[SPEAKER_02]: So those things really jagged

[SPEAKER_02]: So it was now up 7% crowdsourced up 13% on the day, sales force down about 5% or up about 5% on the day.

[SPEAKER_02]: So that's where the green lived mostly in this market for the day and healthcare also had a decent day.

[SPEAKER_02]: So pretty mixed reaction in the markets, but because it's so tech heavy, it really dragged down those major indices.

[SPEAKER_02]: On the bond market side, 10 year yield hit over 5%

[SPEAKER_02]: 23, so those higher rates are starting to, I think worry, especially the equity markets, higher cost of capital, something I talked about on Friday near the end of the show, so that continues to be a worry.

[SPEAKER_02]: he'll drop out one to three bases points on the short and dollar next up point four percent gold down one point three percent silver down one point six Bitcoin up two point four and WTI up one point three off the best levels mainly it was up though because there's supposed to be a meeting between Iran and the Gulf Arab states in a month to discuss

[SPEAKER_02]: Australia removes blockade and that was indefinitely postponed.

[SPEAKER_02]: So clearly, there's not a lot going on on that front.

[SPEAKER_02]: So we'll see how that goes.

[SPEAKER_02]: But that was the market today.

[SPEAKER_02]: Very interesting start of a very interesting potentially volatile week.

[SPEAKER_02]: It is the Fed week.

[SPEAKER_02]: That will be a big market mover on Wednesday.

[SPEAKER_02]: But we're also in the midst of option expiration week.

[SPEAKER_02]: That also tends to be a volatile week as well.

[SPEAKER_02]: Stay tuned for a lot of market movement for a week of September 14th, 20, 26.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now we're heading into a quick break, voice bank never closes, so it's open 24, 7.

[SPEAKER_02]: So you can leave your finance and investment question anytime on 80 day 99 chart and our work continues after this break.

[SPEAKER_03]: Investing can be daunting and doing it all by yourself can be unmanageable.

[SPEAKER_03]: The best time to get a second opinion is before disaster strikes, not after.

[SPEAKER_03]: If you've built a portfolio over the years, but aren't sure whether it still fits where your headed, KPP financial can help.

[SPEAKER_03]: Our team can review your current investments, identify potential risks or gaps, and give you a clear picture of where you stand.

[SPEAKER_03]: Schedule your free portfolio review at investalk.com.

[SPEAKER_02]: And he was speaking to an audience privately just the last week.

[SPEAKER_02]: And there was some interesting revelations from that speech.

[SPEAKER_02]: And maybe being a close ally to Kevin Worsh, it could give some insight into the way Kevin Worsh might be thinking.

[SPEAKER_01]: OK.

[SPEAKER_02]: So the most interesting takeaway from that speech

[SPEAKER_02]: Drunken Miller believes that U.S. barren costs remain a little low and the monetary policy were was actually loose in that if anybody said that they were restrictive, they were ridiculous.

[SPEAKER_02]: Once again, this is going to be from Stanley Jork and Miller, one of the best investors of all time.

[SPEAKER_02]: One of the best macro thinkers, when you say macro, you're talking about broader, economic

[SPEAKER_02]: micro is, you know, individual company sectors, et cetera.

[SPEAKER_02]: He's very, very good at the big picture.

[SPEAKER_02]: If you're doing this for decades, because what he's saying that Ray cuts are no longer needed.

[SPEAKER_02]: He says quote, I believe in common sense.

[SPEAKER_02]: All you have to do is look at asset prices around the world and quote.

[SPEAKER_02]: So basically saying is, how can asset prices continue to march higher if the

[SPEAKER_02]: He's saying that's ridiculous.

[SPEAKER_02]: The general trend of asset prices is typically very reflective of whether or not monetary policy is restrictive or not.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now, he studies no longer allowed to speak to Kevin Worsh, but described him as, quote, one of his closest friends and called him a great Fred chair.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now, he did criticize the US Treasury Secretary Scott

[SPEAKER_02]: by increasing bybacks recently, so this was written an op-ed by the Wall Street Journal in the Wall Street Journal.

[SPEAKER_02]: Excuse me, by Stanley Drunk and Millie.

[SPEAKER_02]: So he's not afraid to criticize what I needed.

[SPEAKER_02]: And so he doesn't see the 30 year at 5.35 or the 10 year about five as an issue.

[SPEAKER_02]: But it's pretty clear that the market is pricing in

[SPEAKER_02]: Especially when you look at the short end, torture yields have risen to price in a Fed rate increase this week.

[SPEAKER_02]: The market is expecting that.

[SPEAKER_02]: So what he says is that it's been a slow, fundamentally driven March higher in yields, but he does not find it alarming at all.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now in AI, what he said is interesting.

[SPEAKER_02]: He made a lot of money.

[SPEAKER_02]: He was one of the early investors in AI.

[SPEAKER_02]: But he's cut his exposures for him's exposure to 20% of what it was six months ago.

[SPEAKER_02]: So he sees a bubble there and he thinks that thinks that is popping.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now let's keep things moving and drop in another listener question now.

[SPEAKER_09]: I love the podcast.

[SPEAKER_09]: I've been listening there for about four or five years.

[SPEAKER_09]: I had a question about lamb research.

[SPEAKER_09]: LRCX, I want to get your thoughts on it and if it was attracted to you, or if it had to go a little bit lower for it to be attracted to you, and I would like to get a price point that you like.

[SPEAKER_09]: Thank you, called to hear the question and answer it on the podcast.

[SPEAKER_09]: Bye.

[SPEAKER_02]: All right, looking at lamb research, LRCX is the symbol.

[SPEAKER_02]: And this is a

[SPEAKER_02]: A name that is in the semiconductor equipment manufacturing business, a name that was down pretty big today, about 8.3% and I think that is the issue, that's the tell here, that this is in the heart of the AI trade.

[SPEAKER_02]: It moved up considerably from a low back in last spring, up around $50 with this $55 in that range, mid-50s.

[SPEAKER_02]: All the way to a reason I have $436 in change.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now we're down to $270, read dollars, after the drop the day.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I think there's still more downside to come.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think it's still a good business.

[SPEAKER_02]: But clearly this got ahead of me.

[SPEAKER_02]: So the question is, where is major support?

[SPEAKER_02]: I'll give you a number here.

[SPEAKER_02]: I definitely wouldn't touch this still, at least 200 to a two in that range.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I think there's plenty of downside to come.

[SPEAKER_02]: Momentum is certainly broken.

[SPEAKER_02]: But once again, it's a good business.

[SPEAKER_02]: We like it, we own one of their competitors.

[SPEAKER_03]: So what's that?

[SPEAKER_02]: So I would say,

[SPEAKER_02]: So our favorite within this particular space, but it's certainly a good company with a good business, it's just the matter of, you know, the shine around AI and AI build out, I think it's coming off currently.

[SPEAKER_02]: So momentum is down and I'd be very, very patient with it.

[SPEAKER_02]: So I pass on it for now, but at 200, I would give it a solid look.

[SPEAKER_02]: So hold off, thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_02]: The next messlock will look into the story.

[SPEAKER_02]: Gold's big comeback.

[SPEAKER_02]: Why the world's largest money managers are loading up, again, the world's biggest money managers are quietly building their gold positions, with that signals rising a certain budget of political instability, inflation persistence, and currency risk.

[SPEAKER_02]: That story is for tomorrow, but for now I'm Justin Klein and ready to take your calls now or any time at 8.909 chart.

[SPEAKER_02]: At KPP Financial, Accountability means more than advice.

[SPEAKER_02]: It means we invest alongside you through our parallel investing approach.

[SPEAKER_02]: When we recommend an investment for clients, one or more KPP principles invest their own capital at the same time.

[SPEAKER_02]: Same day, same price, same percentage.

[SPEAKER_02]: If your portfolio moves, ours does too.

[SPEAKER_02]: That is alignment.

[SPEAKER_02]: That is transparency.

[SPEAKER_02]: That is the KPP difference.

[SPEAKER_02]: Visit investtalk.com to get your free portfolio review.

[SPEAKER_01]: The Invest Talk Retirement Summit is coming to Irvine, California, on Saturday, October 24th.

[SPEAKER_01]: For an exclusive in-person event, it will focus on five key decisions that can shape your financial future, attendance is complimentary and seating is limited.

[SPEAKER_01]: Reserve your place now at InvestTalk.com

[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, I just wanted to wish you a just and a happy birthday, certainly helping us all with investing.

[SPEAKER_04]: Okay, thank you.

[SPEAKER_02]: Well, thank you.

[SPEAKER_02]: No, I did the show on Friday.

[SPEAKER_02]: That was my birthday.

[SPEAKER_02]: And nobody can't call the wish.

[SPEAKER_02]: We have a birthday, but apparently somebody did, so thank you.

[SPEAKER_02]: I appreciate that.

[SPEAKER_02]: I didn't think so at the time, but somebody must have called after hours.

[SPEAKER_02]: So thank you.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now let's pivot over to our main focus point and that is Chinese rare earth exports.

[SPEAKER_02]: Mainly, these exports are declining.

[SPEAKER_02]: And there are companies declining to ship to the U.S. at a fear of repercussions from Beijing.

[SPEAKER_02]: So U.S. officials continue to ask China to stick to commitments made in Busan recently.

[SPEAKER_02]: hoping the day will ensure smooth flow of rare earth, explore licenses.

[SPEAKER_02]: And this is prior to the agenda being put together for the meeting between President Trump and President G, coming up in just 10 days of 10 or 24th.

[SPEAKER_02]: But despite this rapidly approaching meeting, a handful of Chinese suppliers have refused to ship rare earths to the US since early August.

[SPEAKER_02]: This is why in China imposed sanctions on the responsible business alliance, a US supply chain monitor, and China deployed its own trade compliance weapon, and its punishing companies that don't comply with it, and it's called the responsible mineral initiative.

[SPEAKER_02]: getting licenses approved, and therefore, shipments out.

[SPEAKER_02]: Next sports of many rare earths are related or related magnets.

[SPEAKER_02]: Have rebounded since China imposed exports in April of last year.

[SPEAKER_02]: We're talking about minerals like yatrium, indium, phosphide, tungsten.

[SPEAKER_02]: These all have military applications

[SPEAKER_02]: and they remain near record, prices remain near record highs with tight supplies.

[SPEAKER_02]: The exports to the U.S. of Yitrium have risen this year, but still only about half of 2024 levels.

[SPEAKER_02]: Even when shipets to other countries are starting to rise more considerably.

[SPEAKER_02]: to gain an advantage in diplomacy, in deals, et cetera.

[SPEAKER_02]: And so this is creating going to continue to create issues or supply chains both here in the US and around the world.

[SPEAKER_02]: Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs to China was committed to maintaining global critical mineral supply chains.

[SPEAKER_02]: However,

[SPEAKER_02]: After two months without Yatrium exports, China said 27 tons of material in the U.S. in July, the second highest monthly shipment since January of 2020, 7 but then kind of stopped.

[SPEAKER_02]: This is bad, but it's not as bad as it actually has been for other countries, mainly Japan.

[SPEAKER_02]: Chinese exports exported no terbiom to Japan between January and August of this year.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's from 2010 to 2010s over the same period last year.

[SPEAKER_02]: Gallionship.

[SPEAKER_02]: Gallionship is written on 65% during that period.

[SPEAKER_02]: These are usually made to make high performance rare earth magnets.

[SPEAKER_02]: And obviously Japan is a powerful industrial country.

[SPEAKER_02]: It makes a ton of high valued industrial components and products.

[SPEAKER_02]: So they need it.

[SPEAKER_02]: So what this goes to show you is that this geopolitical instability is feeding into prices.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's not just one thing.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's not just diesel prices that are record high.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's not just oil prices that are well above $100 a barrel again.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's what we talked about in Friday.

[SPEAKER_02]: The inputs to producing food, but also the inputs now to producing industrial equipment.

[SPEAKER_02]: and military equipment, and so our stockpiles are low, which we know they are of certain missiles.

[SPEAKER_02]: This becomes a bigger issue.

[SPEAKER_02]: And so, most people think of war as guns and bullets and rockets and airplanes, but in the current world,

[SPEAKER_02]: globalization that's taken hold of our economies for the past 30, 40 years.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's now increasingly more tied to these things, resources.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I don't think that's going to change.

[SPEAKER_02]: And it's another factor in the fact that we are going to be experiencing high inflation for an extended period of time.

[SPEAKER_02]: And so this is why interest rates are rising.

[SPEAKER_02]: And this is why harder assets,

[SPEAKER_02]: means of production are becoming more value.

[SPEAKER_02]: So if you have control of these scarce resources, and you're able to bring them to market when suppliers are constrained, you're going to make an above average level of profits, which is very different.

[SPEAKER_02]: Then what we saw kind of post the fall of the Soviet Union,

[SPEAKER_02]: When all these resources were given to the oligarchs of Russia, and what did they do with it?

[SPEAKER_02]: They were exporting a ton of raw materials to the rep, excuse me, to the rest of the world.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's no longer happening at the same level, at the same pace.

[SPEAKER_02]: And so it's not just China, it's Russia, it's a lot of country down the world, and this is going to continue to be a theme, leveraging these resources for

[SPEAKER_02]: political game.

[SPEAKER_02]: And that is another aspect of the backdrop of rising inflation.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now for the time, we see questions via web full.

[SPEAKER_02]: Excuse me.

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know where the hiccups from investtalk.com.

[SPEAKER_02]: And let's go answer that question now.

[SPEAKER_02]: Alex says, how do you just in the loop?

[SPEAKER_02]: Alex from Texas, I asked about ticker symbol of DINO, like we could go to a go to this question, is more so what happened to a stock whenever it splits, a segment of its business into its own standalone operation.

[SPEAKER_02]: I read that DINO will separate its loopers, especially in the independent publicity of company in the second half of 2027, I was warning what does that do to the stock.

[SPEAKER_02]: Very simple, it's kind of like a dividend, that's what spin-offs are.

[SPEAKER_02]: You will get it in your account.

[SPEAKER_02]: like a dividend, but we won't be cash.

[SPEAKER_02]: It will be in a new ticker, ticker symbol.

[SPEAKER_02]: And that can be a good thing.

[SPEAKER_02]: It can unlock value, because investors often they want pure place.

[SPEAKER_02]: And when you have a business that has multiple arms to it that aren't very synergistic, shall we say?

[SPEAKER_02]: along with another, for example, Exxon or Chevron.

[SPEAKER_02]: There was called vertically integrated.

[SPEAKER_02]: They have drilling operations, but they also have refining operations.

[SPEAKER_02]: And so, they can work together to control the flow of products and communicate and kind of capture a lot of the,

[SPEAKER_02]: the synergies of those two businesses because they work together closely, but if they have two businesses that don't have much to do with one another, it often makes sense for, I don't know why I could think of this.

[SPEAKER_02]: It often makes sense for them to split up trade separately so that when you're investing, you know, I am getting

[SPEAKER_02]: This very concentrated type exposure, and I'm not getting diluted by this other business that's out there.

[SPEAKER_02]: So there might be a lot of investors that want to own a lubricant and specialty business, for example.

[SPEAKER_02]: But that's not Dynos, main business there in our refineries, pipelines, expert exploration services, et cetera.

[SPEAKER_02]: So it's a little bit more peer play,

[SPEAKER_02]: And I think this is a good thing over all.

[SPEAKER_02]: So once again, you're just going to get it at a dividend, it's going to come into your account.

[SPEAKER_02]: There's no, there shouldn't be tax consequences to it, you can still own both entities today and after the spin-off, you only have a tax consequence when you sell it.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now let's pivot back to the best type of voice bank to play another question that came in from, excuse me, South Carolina.

[SPEAKER_07]: Hey, Luke, we're just in a joke and something.

[SPEAKER_07]: Well, I'm not calling about a little bit of a different investment opportunity.

[SPEAKER_07]: I didn't know if you had ever worked with a client or heard of someone investing in land or timber.

[SPEAKER_07]: There's an opportunity near me in super, just 46 acres of land that is well and do it some maturity and would yield timber.

[SPEAKER_07]: in eight to ten years, and so one was no a free thought that would be a decent idea on my thought is to possibly use it to use it as an investment, possibly to eventually live on one day, but also possibly not, depending on how well it did.

[SPEAKER_07]: I thought so the land values in my area have been going up, so I'll get one of the fastest

[SPEAKER_07]: and my thought is also that the value of timber is probably going to go up, but we'd love to get your thoughts on it.

[SPEAKER_07]: We'll listen to your answer on podcast.

[SPEAKER_02]: Well, first, prefacing that all of these resource plate plays like timber.

[SPEAKER_02]: How the right price?

[SPEAKER_02]: With the right price, there's a yes.

[SPEAKER_02]: But understand what the timber business is.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's very, very cyclical.

[SPEAKER_02]: And you have to just go look at the ticker symbol WY.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's a read that focuses on Timberlands and manufacturer word products.

[SPEAKER_02]: What is mainly used to build houses?

[SPEAKER_02]: And we know that the home building industry is very, very cyclical.

[SPEAKER_02]: at a wirehouse or maybe a ton of money in 2020, 2020, what?

[SPEAKER_02]: 120, 22, and 3,000, 37 cents in 2021, but this year only 33 cents, and then 72 cents expecting next year.

[SPEAKER_02]: So it's very cyclical.

[SPEAKER_02]: The, if you look at the actual stock on a monthly basis, it's where it's basically been since they're on a flat.

[SPEAKER_02]: since the housing bubble in 2020, in 2006, actually it's down a little bit.

[SPEAKER_02]: But it has paid a dividend, so overall return is still positive, but it's just not a great business.

[SPEAKER_02]: So to think that you are going to get into the timber business and it's going to be very lucrative, that's very tough to say.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now we do have tariffs on Canadian lumber, I think still,

[SPEAKER_02]: So domestically sourced lumber, maybe have maybe a leg up have to look deeper into that, and you probably want to as well.

[SPEAKER_02]: But I wouldn't buy it just because timber is going to have a great business.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's too up and down.

[SPEAKER_02]: If it's cheap enough, and maybe you can use the land for something else, or maybe you just want to for personal use, sure.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think having a timber business on the side,

[SPEAKER_02]: can be fine.

[SPEAKER_02]: But don't think that you're going to buy this land and now you suddenly struck it rich in this timber business is going to pay for your retirement.

[SPEAKER_02]: A lot would have to fall into place for that to really happen.

[SPEAKER_02]: So, at the right price, yes, but don't get over the excited about that business.

[SPEAKER_02]: And let's tackle another voicemail question now.

[SPEAKER_08]: this pilot from Ohio, I just got a question about the T-Row price, like our symbol, T-R-O-W.

[SPEAKER_08]: I just want to give you an opinion on, do you think this is a good time to get in, or should I wait a little while?

[SPEAKER_08]: Thanks, guys.

[SPEAKER_08]: Let me know.

[SPEAKER_02]: All right.

[SPEAKER_02]: Looking at T-Row price.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now, this is a name.

[SPEAKER_02]: They provide services, but mainly they make money by owning

[SPEAKER_02]: They on, let's see what they'll remember.

[SPEAKER_06]: Right, Lee.

[UNKNOWN]: Dup.

[SPEAKER_02]: Excuse me.

[SPEAKER_02]: Ah, he's hiccups are crazy.

[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't have the fun family, he's right in front of me.

[SPEAKER_02]: But I know it is a good business, but it's a good business that is continues to get weaker and weaker.

[SPEAKER_02]: Which are inequities about 19% which is good?

[SPEAKER_02]: But it had been as hot, you know, more like the mid 20s to high to low 30s in profitability.

[SPEAKER_02]: So now it's in the low key in the height of the high teens.

[SPEAKER_02]: Freacastial 2.8 billion, they have no debt in the amount of cheap hot, high-free cash flow yield over 10% that's great.

[SPEAKER_02]: Nice dividend yield.

[SPEAKER_02]: However, once again, it is a bit of a melting ice cube.

[SPEAKER_02]: Net income is

[SPEAKER_02]: Well off it's high in 2021 at 3.2 billion hours at 2.2 billion.

[SPEAKER_02]: The chart is just kind of neutral, so it's not bullish, not bearish.

[SPEAKER_02]: This would be a play really on the downfall of index investing and a resurgence and act of mid.

[SPEAKER_02]: And there's certainly an argument that that is becoming more prevalent.

[SPEAKER_02]: bigger odds of that emerging as we enter this geopolitical dysfunction.

[SPEAKER_02]: So that's really the play here.

[SPEAKER_02]: If you think that's going to be the case, then I would buy it if you think indexes will continue to dominate.

[SPEAKER_02]: Well then, I would love.

[SPEAKER_02]: We're heading to a break.

[SPEAKER_02]: You may call it now 8-8-9-nage chart.

[SPEAKER_01]: Invest Talk.

[SPEAKER_01]: Tell your friends they can listen live, download the free podcast, or watch Invest Talk on our YouTube channel.

[SPEAKER_01]: And they can leave their finance and investment questions any time on 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_06]: I know that like a lot of insurance companies they have been beat up, lately, technical infrastructure overall analysis of that in fundamentals looks like they both have dipped recently and are hopefully going to cross their 200 day moving average and just wanted your assessment.

[SPEAKER_06]: I'll listen for it on the show.

[SPEAKER_06]: Thanks.

[SPEAKER_02]: As a Brown and Brown, these are two, they're in the insurance business, but they're different.

[SPEAKER_02]: So Brown and Brown, the arrows are simple.

[SPEAKER_02]: They're a insurance brokerage firm.

[SPEAKER_02]: They do have some underwriting services as well, but they're mainly, it looks like a brokerage firm.

[SPEAKER_02]: We pull up this on another system, which makes their business inherently a bit less risky overall.

[SPEAKER_02]: Let's take a look here.

[SPEAKER_02]: The retail 58%, especially the distribution

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, earnings are expected to go up this year, a 5% a% next year.

[SPEAKER_02]: So there's some continued growth there.

[SPEAKER_02]: It wasn't a long downtrend from the fall or spring of last year all the way until the bottom in the spring of this year.

[SPEAKER_02]: Around $55.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now we're $68.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think I kind of like this recent uptrend reasonable valuation here.

[SPEAKER_02]: about 15 times for looking earnings.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think that's pretty cheap.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now, progressive, on the other hand, they are the use insurance services.

[SPEAKER_02]: They are the ones providing property and casual to insurance and reinsurance.

[SPEAKER_02]: And then they have to go invest that money.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now, where the investing a lot of these insurance companies are investing them in private credit, for example,

[SPEAKER_02]: So I would see if what exposure both of them have to that, I would worry a bit on that.

[SPEAKER_02]: But progressives, earnings are just a fall 1% this year and then 10% next year.

[SPEAKER_02]: This also has a similar chart pattern, but I like the brown and brown one a little bit.

[SPEAKER_02]: Better if I'm being honest with you.

[SPEAKER_02]: Take a look at their balance sheets.

[SPEAKER_02]: Brown and brown does have a little bit of depth, and nothing too crazy.

[SPEAKER_02]: Progressive, we'll just up here.

[SPEAKER_02]: They also have a little bit of that, nothing too crazy at all.

[SPEAKER_02]: Higher profitability, let me look at some of the details, levels in the details, yeah.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, that's pretty good profitability from progressive.

[SPEAKER_02]: Overall, I'm going to go with Brian Brown, though.

[SPEAKER_02]: Mainly because I just like the trajectory of their business and the

[SPEAKER_02]: The chart looks a bit better as well, but this is a tough call I will say, but if I'm going to pick one of the other, I'm slightly leaning Brad and Brad.

[SPEAKER_02]: The last thing is talk about the Fed meeting coming up here in just a couple of days.

[SPEAKER_02]: And Friday's CPI report.

[SPEAKER_02]: showed inflation accelerating in the odds of rate heck rose from 72% to 86% this week.

[SPEAKER_02]: So the consensus is that inflation is stubbornly high and central banks need act.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now there's two reasons for a rate increase or two arguments.

[SPEAKER_02]: One is that tighter policies need to stamp out rising prices.

[SPEAKER_02]: The other things that Kevin Worsh actually painted himself into a corner at the Jackson Hole speech a couple weeks ago.

[SPEAKER_02]: So either way, rates are going up.

[SPEAKER_02]: What they're saying is that Kevin Worsh said, quote, I'm impressed by the overall performance of the economy.

[SPEAKER_02]: It appears to be having to have strength and the job is rated 4.1 percent remains low by historical standards.

[SPEAKER_02]: And the Fed's preferred measure of inflation to 12 month change in the PC, price index stands at 3.7%.

[SPEAKER_02]: He said, while this summer's PC and CPI readings are better than expected, they're not to tell me the underlying trend of meaningfully improved.

[SPEAKER_02]: So he's saying jobs, it was rate is fine, and inflation is still a buff target.

[SPEAKER_02]: Pretty simple.

[SPEAKER_02]: If you go look at the PC numbers, they continue to do the initial.

[SPEAKER_02]: So if he's words mean anything, he has to hike.

[SPEAKER_02]: Even if you think that the inflation data is getting better, which kind of isn't, he's tossed out because of the words he they set.

[SPEAKER_02]: And then you look at the backdrop of higher oil prices, the use of prices, a tight labor market where your viewer change in in jobs is accelerating, wage growth is accelerating all of this is leading to, as selling truck and low set, a rate hike.

[SPEAKER_02]: So that's likely what we're getting.

[SPEAKER_02]: on Wednesday.

[SPEAKER_02]: Well, I'm sorry for my hiccups in the back half of the show, but that does it.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm just in class, mind you've key, key, financials, parallel investing, make a trade for our clients, make the same trade for our self, same gay, same price, same percentage, no front running, no special treatment.

[SPEAKER_02]: We invest right alongside our clients, we show the same risk and potential for success and you can learn more on heading over to the best.com.

[SPEAKER_02]: our October 24th.

[SPEAKER_02]: Retire retirement summit in person in Irvine, California.

[SPEAKER_02]: You're invited to join the KV team and some guest experts to work excited to see you there.

[SPEAKER_02]: Independent thinking should success.

[SPEAKER_02]: That's the best talk.

[SPEAKER_02]: Good night.

[SPEAKER_00]: Invest Talk is a trademark of KPP Financial because of the nature of the interactive dialogue inherent in the format of this program.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's important for the listener to understand that not all comments may will apply to that.

[SPEAKER_00]: Specifically, nothing said she'll be taken to be investment advice.

[SPEAKER_00]: or shell statements on this program be considered an offer to buy or sell security.

[SPEAKER_00]: Because such advice is rendered solely on an individual basis, and at times will require that the investor review a prospectus before investing.

[SPEAKER_00]: Invest talk is a copyrighted program of Plyne, Pavless, and Peasley Financial, a registered investment advisor firm, which retains all rights.

[SPEAKER_00]: For more information regarding KPP's investment advisors, call 1-800-557-5461.

[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you for listening, and your comments and questions are welcome on our 24-hour listener line at 888-99 chart.