[SPEAKER_00]: Welcome to the Baseball America Fantasy podcast.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm Rihost James Anderson, Jeff Ponce with me.

[SPEAKER_00]: And this week's episode and next week's episode are gonna be all FYPD focused and specifically 2026 drafts.

[SPEAKER_00]: And this week, I wanted to really talk through kind of all the top guys, all of the 20, 26 drifties that you might consider in like the first round of your FYPD.

[SPEAKER_00]: And you know, I know Jeff you've talked about some of these guys on the show previously, but I, you know, got to kind of second look at all these guys as I'm writing this big top 100 FYPD article.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I've had like some

[SPEAKER_00]: slight changes in opinion and we've also gotten to see some of these guys debut so there's more to discuss but first man how you doing?

[SPEAKER_01]: Doing great man, you know we're winding down the baseball season here which is

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know, it's it's conflicting, you know, in some senses, I look forward to the off season and, you know, working on the handbook and the lists and kind of like the prospect ranking season is always a lot of fun.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I'm not going to have, you know, more games than I can possibly watch available to me on.

[SPEAKER_01]: Every night of the week, you know, it's going to be watching AFL streams and hoping that the camera work is good enough to actually get any idea what's going on.

[SPEAKER_01]: So a little conflicted on that, but, you know, we're enjoying the playoffs, double a kicked off last night and some good games, you know, haze use bias just keeps on mashing man.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, no doubt, the season's kind of winding down.

[SPEAKER_00]: But gradie Emerson, Jeff, I kind of went into this class and the draft sort of expecting him to maybe be in a tier by himself potentially.

[SPEAKER_00]: But the more I kind of look at it, I feel like he's part of a bigger tier at the top from this draft class.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think there's there's definitely going to be a lot of bias, I think, in the market, just given how good Eli Willitz was, how good kind of Griffin was, or at least there could have been some bias in the market if Emerson had had a loud pro-day view, but he of course has not.

[SPEAKER_00]: Where you add on Emerson, like I think the way I put it to you is like I just keep hearing about how pretty his swing is and how projectable he is, but there's just there hasn't been that much discussion of like this guy like produces and games, you know, this guy's a wow athlete or anything like that, like where you kind of add on Emerson at the stage.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think it's some of it's a product of what this draft is like.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's no sort of clear cut guys at the top.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, even, even Will, it's last year.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think you could make a case is like a 17 year old at reclass with some speed, switch hitter with like, you know, excellent hit tool.

[SPEAKER_01]: And potentially, you know, more projection to add power.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think there was, you know, some argument.

[SPEAKER_01]: that will it's made sense, you know, up toward the top of drafts.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think with a draft like this, you're just you're running into, you know, a college hitter class where there's a lot of guys that have, you know, warts or just like one hole in their game that makes you kind of question it a little bit.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think just generally the the outside of the 2024 draft and to an

[SPEAKER_01]: College hitters at the top of the draft is kind of underwhelmed for the better part of a decade, right, like what's think about how torque was built up and some of these other guys.

[SPEAKER_01]: And more often than not, the translation from metal bats and even in the SEC, let alone the other three power fours and some of the mid-majors that are out there, I just think the translation is sometimes a little tricky.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you've hit with any metal bats over the last five to ten years, you realize, especially the last five, they're different than they were.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like this isn't the typical BB cores that we saw after they, you know, went away from the whole drop five era in college baseball.

[SPEAKER_01]: The ball flies off these bats, the ball travels further than it would off of wood,

[SPEAKER_01]: stuff that's mistakes, kind of comes off the bat a lot harder.

[SPEAKER_01]: And it's not just college baseball.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think you see high school, and you see it in a little league, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: Like there's especially when kids start going and play in travel ball and they're swinging these U-triple

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, the ball comes off of those things in ways that it's just not natural, so I think there's always some question with that right.

[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe there's a little bit less of a question with high school guys because they play with wood throughout the summer.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, a lot of these showcase events, they're swinging wood bats, the USA baseball events, they're swinging wood bats.

[SPEAKER_01]: And the college guys you see it on the cape, you see it when they do play with USA.

[SPEAKER_01]: But they're larger sample sizes with these metal bats.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think there's always some stuff that kind of gets a little lost in translation.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that probably leads the general consensus to be a little apprehensive when it comes to college bats.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, top of the draft high school prep short stops, which is typically a demographic that does really, really well and ranks really highly on fantasy list when they're prospects.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think there's, you know, people are gravitating toward a profile that just seems a little bit safer, seems to have a little bit more upside.

[SPEAKER_01]: One in the reality is it's kind of a hit tool driven profile with some questions about how much impact will really develop.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think if you look at some of his high school hit or data with wood bats, you kind of see that, you know, him and Elliot was sell Who's a better contact hit or than Emerson from a very, you know, different background as a Canadian high school kid.

[SPEAKER_01]: Same EVs and that's not something that you would have expected from a guy like Emerson the way that he's been build.

[SPEAKER_01]: The powers really the question, and if you're buying into a hit tool shortstop, that's not going to steal 30 to 40 bases at peak, you start to question if this is really a true number one and FYPD.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I, I, I.

[SPEAKER_00]: I agree with all that and I think the challenge I think is kind of finding that player to really fall in love with at the very top because it's I think it's it's easy to kind of if you're picking like eight or nine it's easy to be like oh man I'll take this guy here no problem like this is great but if you're picking you know for a second third obviously there's going to be

[SPEAKER_00]: Taking Emerson as the first player from this draft class it just doesn't feel as satisfying as I would like

[SPEAKER_00]: But we'll get into some of the other options.

[SPEAKER_00]: I still think it is a fairly big tier.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think you could go any which way.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think a lot of people are going to maybe look to trade down a few spots.

[SPEAKER_00]: But Jeff, I want to talk about Bon Lackey, the twins handed him 9.5 million.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think this is just an unprecedented time with regards to the amount of high-end fantasy catching prospects in the game.

[SPEAKER_00]: Renio Rodriguez, Ethan Salus, Alfredo Duno, Von Lackey, like to me, those are like for the best fantasy catching prospects of the last decade and like Salus is already up.

[SPEAKER_00]: The other two, I think could be up next year.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think Lackey could be up next year.

[SPEAKER_00]: Ryan Jeffers is going to be a free agent.

[SPEAKER_00]: And the way I've been kind of thinking about it with Lacky is like if I'm in a dynasty league where I Don't have my catcher the future.

[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe I'm in a two-catcher dynasty league and I'm like I'm hurting it my second catcher spot I think I I have no problem leaning in the Lacky if he kind of addresses a position in need for me And you're the top here, but where where you at it?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, like he's a tough one and I think there's a few things that play here.

[SPEAKER_01]: Number one, we'll start with a good.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's a phenomenal athlete, particularly for a catcher, but just generally he has the kind of athleticism that you see in center field, there's in short stops and guys that stick at premium positions in the field.

[SPEAKER_01]: You don't see that all all the time with a catcher.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, was one of the best hitters in college baseball this year.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, destroys fast balls, handles velocity really well.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, you know, is a phenomenally athletic catcher.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's probably going to run a little bit too.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think from an offensive standpoint, you could get power and speed here, which if you're getting, you know, above average production

[SPEAKER_01]: That's a big differentiator, I think, in Dynastee, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: Just in terms of, especially if you're playing Roto and you're trying to stack up, and all those categories, if you have a good line up and you're probably getting production from all of your infield and your outfield and utility guys, the catcher position is always one where you're like, you'll take any production there.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think there's a lot of positive there that this guy has the upside to turn into,

[SPEAKER_01]: a fantasy superstar, a top-five round kind of a pick.

[SPEAKER_01]: The downside, I think, with Lacky, is there's not a huge track record of production here.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is really his only truly productive season as a college player.

[SPEAKER_01]: So there's some questions there.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think when you dig into his production from a pitch-type standpoint, destroys fastballs, it's fairly good against off-speeds, you're looking at two pitch-tipes there where everything

[SPEAKER_01]: the issues that he runs into tends to be a bit against breaking balls and spin.

[SPEAKER_01]: It wasn't so bad that you look at the numbers and you want to throw up.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's more, okay, there's some drop-off here in his ability to hit spin versus what he does against fast balls and change-ups.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think those are the questions there, but do you think there's a lot of positive stuff?

[SPEAKER_01]: The other part of it is, I am always really worried about investing highly in a catcher at the top of FYPD drafts.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I had Adley that I had gotten in a few drafts that year and I think you look back on it and are like, you know, there might have been some other better picks to make there it's just it's a position where you get beat up, you know, your hands get beat up physically there's a lot of wear and tear even with one knee down catching which I think is help guys lower half stay a little bit more healthy and and endure the season a little bit better there's just a lot of wear and tear you don't get it other positions and I think it's what makes catching so unique.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so I had that like the exact same concerns with Lackey, are you encouraged all by his debut like I I was most interested in his debut of the top college guys just because of the fact that it was kind of an outlier junior year for him.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, I think, you know, the power is not necessarily that big for a guy that hit for as much power as you did in college in the debut, but 13 for 15 on stolen bases and 25 games.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then, you know, strike out rate under 20% walk and almost 23% of the time.

[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, not swinging very often is it just kind of like the pastivity and the the caliber competition doesn't move the needle a ton for you.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, you know, I think it's more along the lines of, uh, confirming that he's a good player.

[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, and I know it was only 10 games, uh, but did go up to high A and walked more than he struck out, um, you know, hit for a little bit of power there as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, around a 500 on base percentage, which is obviously, um, crazy good.

[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I mean, I, I, I don't know if

[SPEAKER_01]: move the needle a ton, but it did maybe and still a little bit more confidence in that if you do take lackey toward the top of an FYPD, that you can feel pretty good that you're going to come away with, at least a big leaguer that's going to contribute.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think sometimes we kind of miss the fact that that's

[SPEAKER_01]: kind of a good outcome, even in like fantasy.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's only so many prospects that are going to be impactful fantasy guys in the minors or in the draft at any point in time.

[SPEAKER_01]: And because of how low the bar is in terms of offensive production at catcher, I think that that's pretty safe pick even for a position that has some risk kind of attached to it generally.

[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I wouldn't say I'm going crazy off of it.

[SPEAKER_01]: We can maybe read a little bit too much into debut at times, like Tate South is saying was awful in this debut.

[SPEAKER_01]: And you know, other guys were Ethan Fry was phenomenal.

[SPEAKER_01]: Fry ended up having a really good second half this year was struggled in the first half.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's not necessarily indicative of what you're going to see in April, May June, you know, there's a full off season for these guys to do off season camps and work with the header work with their swing coaches work on the things that they need to fix and sometimes, you know, the sample of the the month after the draft is just, you know, kind of like you see what it looks like now, you know, All right, I have an idea what the speed of the game is and what it might be different from what I've seen in college.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think with Blackie's debut, it's almost like it would have mattered if he had sucked, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, if he had gone to like singly, hi, and just like not been very good, then we would have been like, wow, that junior season really standing out now.

[SPEAKER_00]: But let's talk about Jacob Blombard.

[SPEAKER_00]: I, like, I think if you, if you're just chasing upside,

[SPEAKER_00]: Like Lombard, he's a plus athlete, he has weaknesses in his game, too many whiffs this past spring and too many whiffs in his debut, but pretty good swing decisions and I just, I feel confident that the power and the speed is just going to be there with him, like all the way up the ladder and it's just kind of,

[SPEAKER_00]: Is he going to put the hit tool concerns away or are those just going to follow them up the letters?

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, where you had on Lombard and like how close do you think Lombard and Emerson are?

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, for fantasy, probably closer than people want to necessarily

[SPEAKER_01]: make it.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I'll give him some credit.

[SPEAKER_01]: I had major concerns about the swing and miss.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I understand that he ran a 40% strikeout rate, which isn't great.

[SPEAKER_01]: But it was only a 10.9% swing and strike rate.

[SPEAKER_01]: It wasn't like he was swinging and missing at these alarming rates that

[SPEAKER_01]: I think when you consider what the EVs are, the base running ability, me, he played 22 games and stole 11 bases on 13 attempts.

[SPEAKER_01]: So he's gonna run.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's gonna take advantage about that's in his game.

[SPEAKER_01]: Had four home runs, the power is there.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think if you've just watched any video of Lumbar in the swing, like this is a bat that's optimized for power.

[SPEAKER_01]: Some of it probably for him is more even passivity than it necessarily is swing and miss.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that's very fixable.

[SPEAKER_01]: Just being a little bit more aggressive on pitches and certain zones.

[SPEAKER_01]: and having a better feel for identifying spin and balls and strikes is just going to go a long way with him.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think the ability is there.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think you also look at the fact that he comes from a baseball family, father's a long time majorly player and majorly coach.

[SPEAKER_01]: He said a longer coaching career than he even had his a player.

[SPEAKER_01]: Brother was a short stop for the Yankees.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, coaching, training methods, facilities, equipment that some other guys aren't necessarily going to have access to directly.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, I, I have a fairly high level of confidence that one bard will turn a corner here with the hit tool.

[SPEAKER_01]: I didn't really know how to take him out of the draft, but I will say I am encouraged by some of the stuff that he did show post draft despite the numbers, you know, being below average.

[SPEAKER_01]: for the Florida State League when you're looking at like a WRC plus it's a 98.

[SPEAKER_01]: So just kind of below league average.

[SPEAKER_01]: Really young right out of the draft, a lot of these guys don't even debut, you know, they're working at swing coaches like a Connor Griffin did for six months before we even saw him on a bat field.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you know, credit to him for coming out and competing and I think maybe it was inconsistent, but but showed some upside and showed some moments of stuff that I

[SPEAKER_01]: And with a draft like this, if you're picking it 9 or 10 and Lumbar falls into your lap, I don't, I think you're going to be pretty happy, you know, snatch them up and then by mayor June next year, if he comes out and really produces, take some of those step forwards with the swing decisions and the bats ball, you know, we could be talking about a real break out here.

[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, that's a lot of options.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like if if all these guys just have

[SPEAKER_00]: Great adjustments, like Lombard's the one where if he's showing that and like mid-May, like, you know, you could be a top 15 prospect, like pretty quickly, just because of how obvious the power and speed is going to be.

[SPEAKER_00]: Jackson Flora had, you know, one of the best day views.

[SPEAKER_00]: It was only only face 12 batters, but he struck out half of them.

[SPEAKER_00]: Where are you at, like, how do you like the landing spot with Florida with the giants?

[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, it's a great home park that he can get to the big league rotation, basically is whenever he's ready, do you think it's a good fit?

[SPEAKER_00]: Do you think he can kind of be on sort of a, like obviously Kate Anderson where to go into the big leagues, like a few months ago, if there'd been an opening the size that the openings in the giant's rotation, like you think Florida could be up, like say, with like a month or two to spare next year.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, yeah, I mean, I, I wouldn't be shocked if he's up even earlier than, you know, forward the season, um, it's, it's, it's going to depend.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he's in double a now.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, I was just actually pulling up a schedule.

[SPEAKER_01]: I believe,

[SPEAKER_01]: that he pitches tomorrow night.

[SPEAKER_01]: So when this drops, I believe, yeah, he is the listed star starter against eerie, and it's Jacob Brezhnehan coming in after him.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that's one that you should watch 645 on Thursday night.

[SPEAKER_01]: I love Floor, like, if this is a, if this is a points league, like my home league is a points league, head to head points league.

[SPEAKER_01]: Pitching is king, you know, and we have a scenario where it's a smaller league with eight keepers, 12 teams.

[SPEAKER_01]: Anybody that comes up from your minor league system is free for two years, the course that it would get forced up and then the next two years are free.

[SPEAKER_01]: So you get it like I have chased burns for free.

[SPEAKER_01]: I paid until we free right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: It makes a big difference.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like going into next year, my team looks great.

[SPEAKER_01]: In a league like that, Jackson floor is probably my number one.

[SPEAKER_01]: Unless there's a couple of Japanese pictures that come over that make a case to I don't know if they will, but.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's probably my number one of anybody that's in this domestic drafts class or a points League.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that, because huge swing and missed stuff, he's super athletic.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's really good fast ball trades.

[SPEAKER_01]: The change up is developing and as they're moved to a kick change up last year, the breaking ball was there.

[SPEAKER_01]: He can spin it, he's got good extension, he's good mover.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's the kind of sort of like,

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't want to say ball of clay because he's already kind of molded a little bit, but there's still a lot of traits and attributes that he can go a lot of different pathways he can add a two seamer he could add a different breaking ball shape that works as like a bridge pitch between.

[SPEAKER_01]: depending on who he works with and how it all comes to fruition.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's the kind of picture that can really take a big step forward.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now I don't think he's Chase Burns or Paul Schains or Kate Anderson in the sense of somebody who's really, really polished that the minute Kate Anderson got drafted, he was Kate Anderson.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like I don't know if there's

[SPEAKER_01]: a whole lot of more upside available with Emerson.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was just me with Anderson, unless he adds three or four ticks, which I just don't think he's going to probably do, especially guy with some elbow surgery history, had Tommy John, you know, coming out of high school, etc.

[SPEAKER_01]: Where Flora, there's a little bit more of like the upside is there.

[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe it's a little, it's more risky than Anderson without being incredibly

[SPEAKER_01]: You could convince me that we look back on this in three or four years and are like floors should have gone one.

[SPEAKER_01]: But there's inherent risk with taking any picture, number one in FYPD, even the pictures that come over from Japan that you don't have great numbers.

[SPEAKER_01]: Look at Tetsuya Mai, it didn't translate.

[SPEAKER_01]: So don't kind of ever know, but I mean, I do think when it comes to the power, the spin capacity,

[SPEAKER_01]: He kind of checks all the boxes.

[SPEAKER_01]: And the big question is like, well, then why didn't he miss more bats in a mid major conference?

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I do think West Coast baseball is a little bit more focused on contact.

[SPEAKER_01]: You get a lot more guys that bump.

[SPEAKER_01]: You get a lot more slash hitters going the other way.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's just a more small ball focus style of baseball.

[SPEAKER_01]: So maybe some of that stuff kind of clouded

[SPEAKER_01]: Some of the numbers with floor versus when he starts to face guys that have a pro approach that are trying to do damage in the box.

[SPEAKER_01]: They didn't do well against those guys should go to AA right out of the draft right out of the camp next year and I don't think it would be shocking to have him in Sacramento by May.

[SPEAKER_01]: and then potentially in San Francisco, particularly if they're competitive, which isn't crazy to think that they could be, you know, in the mix in the first half, they're not going to compete with the Dodgers for the division, but it could certainly compete for a playoff spot.

[SPEAKER_01]: If that kind of comes to fruition, it wouldn't shock me if he's up in June.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's going to be in this big first tier.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think like in your situation in the points league.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I even think like I'm in some, I'm in a roto league where there's a couple extra categories like K to walk and and that type of thing and like the really good pictures are just worth their weight and gold.

[SPEAKER_00]: So

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, watch out Florida's in this double A start and, you know, the strikeouts were definitely there earlier.

[SPEAKER_00]: I just want to see the walks like that's really the only thing that could slow him down as if he's just walking too many guys.

[SPEAKER_00]: But, yeah, this is a this is a big first tier here Jeff.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, people are probably wondering like you guys haven't talked about rock philosophy yet.

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, we're going to now and I just wanted to.

[SPEAKER_00]: Get Jeff and I talked about rock for like 10 minutes before we started recording.

[SPEAKER_00]: But he's so interesting Jeff because he was definitely the most famous player in this class, I was referencing him over a year ago in like male bags and I like never talk about amateurs.

[SPEAKER_00]: So like he's been on, he's been like front of mine for a long time.

[SPEAKER_00]: He stole three bases and nine games at high A after stealing one base and 60 games at UCLA and we were kind of talking about how the fact that he was sort of more in a run producing role at UCLA might have played a part in that he's not a bad athlete.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's just not predictable so like I don't think it's impossible that he runs notably more in profile going forward like he did in his very brief debut.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I also.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like if he doesn't run, like I think there's a chance he's dance be swans and without the stolen bases, and I like I think his upside is maybe like Troy to the woods give you that course field, and maybe those players are actually kind of close together, so maybe there isn't that big of a room between his floor and his ceiling, but Rock to Laoski Jeff, like, is he part of this first tier for you for FYPD?

[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, yeah, I think so for sure, um, you know, if people still buy into him as the number one player on FYPD, I don't think I would argue with that either.

[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of the debut, I don't want to take too much away from the debut, especially if there was maybe some sort of issue that he was dealing with, um, you know,

[SPEAKER_01]: The underlying data wasn't bad.

[SPEAKER_01]: Despite the numbers not being great, he's less 167, 326, 333 over nine games.

[SPEAKER_01]: Once again, it was nine games.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're still walking at a high rate.

[SPEAKER_01]: The contact that he made was consistently hard and right in line with some of the numbers that we saw in college, the EVs are really good.

[SPEAKER_01]: The contact numbers are really good.

[SPEAKER_01]: The swing decisions are really good.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think the thing that is encouraging about rock is, and I know that

[SPEAKER_01]: It's the big 10 and it's not, you know, the baseball power for really right and you're not seeing the same level of competition that you see in the SEC or the ACC or to a lesser extent the big 12 but there's still competition there they played a really good out of conference schedule as well so credit to UCLA on that.

[SPEAKER_01]: But when you look at him across all the different pitch type buckets from fast balls to breaking balls and spin to off speed pitches and then looking at his numbers against velocity 94 plus it's really consistent like he consistently runs high contact rates he consistently makes good swing decisions and consistently has

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, good EVs against, you know, all the different pitch types like is EVs dropped a little bit against spin, but everybody's do, you know, and still like a 104 105.

[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, I think you look at the production against velocity, you know, against 94 plus this season with UCLA, he had 333, 455, 556 with a 441, Wooba.

[SPEAKER_01]: So the production is there, he can hit Velo, he can hit spin, she mentioned he's a good athlete.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I don't think he's ever going to be a burner.

[SPEAKER_01]: But,

[SPEAKER_01]: Expecting maybe 15 steals or so in his early seasons, I don't, I don't think is out of the realm of possibility, especially with the way the base running rules are, etc.

[SPEAKER_01]: And the difference in role, he's not going to be your three or four hitter.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's probably going to be more like a one or two hitter in the White Sox lineup.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and he's going to find, he'll try to find ways to impact the game.

[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, I would not rule out him running,

[SPEAKER_00]: more going forward.

[SPEAKER_00]: Jeff, I think I'm probably not an island here, but just

[SPEAKER_00]: Tyler Bell with the Rockies, like I just love the landing spots so much.

[SPEAKER_00]: I liked Bell going into the draft and I just think course field is gonna really benefit him and level him up in fantasy and I also just love the fact that the Rockies just don't have anyone really standing in his way.

[SPEAKER_00]: at shortstop.

[SPEAKER_00]: Bell had 13 steals and 41 games for Kentucky.

[SPEAKER_00]: This spring had a really, really low chase rate.

[SPEAKER_00]: Hit the ball decently, decently hard.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's just kind of an average athlete, but I like that he looks to run.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm sure you're probably not as high on Bell as I am, but what do you think

[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, um, probably a tear below.

[SPEAKER_01]: Do you have some questions about, you know, how, how he's going to come out of, um, the labor of surgery that he had, um, it was a really weird year.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was a really weird year for Tyler Bell.

[SPEAKER_01]: There were some teams that were very in on Bell and there were other teams that more or less kind of put them in the same bucket as a Justin LeBron where it was like we have major concerns about the quality of the hit tool and the amount of swinging miss that Bell has.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're Bell really struggled in terms of the swing and miss was against breaking balls.

[SPEAKER_01]: His breaking ball numbers, I think for a first round pick, if I'm not mistaken, this is quoting a scouting director that I spoke with before the draft, are historically bad in terms of contact rates.

[SPEAKER_01]: for a college player that goes in the first round.

[SPEAKER_01]: He ran a 61.2% contact rate this season against breaking falls.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think some of the concern about him is how is he going to handle spin?

[SPEAKER_01]: How much of the swing and miss that?

[SPEAKER_01]: So I'll back up.

[SPEAKER_01]: The swing and miss wasn't as bad in 2025.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that's also kind of part of this.

[SPEAKER_01]: Is he dealt with his shoulder injury injuries throughout the season?

[SPEAKER_01]: How much was his swinging miss and the fact that he was swinging in missing more?

[SPEAKER_01]: How much of that was impacted by the layroom injury and some of the stuff that's dealt with and some of that wear and tear?

[SPEAKER_01]: Does run, does hit the ball pretty hard, has a track record of really producing in one of the hardest conferences to hit in in the country?

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, despite missing some games, the only played 41 games this year,

[SPEAKER_01]: He did hit 343, 5, 10, 6, 08, and the majority of those games came in conference play.

[SPEAKER_01]: So he hit against really high level competition and of course when you're facing SEC pitching staffs, we can a week out and that's the majority of your sample size.

[SPEAKER_01]: you're facing harder competition.

[SPEAKER_01]: The sling of misnumbers are going to go up.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's not masked by some of that early season production that we see with a lot of these SEC schools, where these guys are playing terrible competition in the first few weeks of the season, and they're facing pitching staffs littered with guys you're going to be travel ball coaches and accountants within a few years.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think that all of that kind of factors into this.

[SPEAKER_01]: So my

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, uh, uh, like, scared, I guess it's even at the best word, just a, a, a little questionable about investing in Tyler Bell, but I do think at this point for a lot of people.

[SPEAKER_01]: They've heard these narratives, they've heard all this stuff, and maybe they've over-corrected, which is I think something that happens a great deal between like September 1st and February 1st and FYPDs, where people kind of overreact to be small sample sizes or buy into a narrative, and don't necessarily...

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, think about it logically that maybe I'm moving this guy down a little bit too much.

[SPEAKER_01]: It becomes a rush, right, it becomes a competition of like who likes the good guy the most and who likes the guy that didn't perform the least.

[SPEAKER_01]: And where I think there's some happy medium with this.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that was a good fantasy pick.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think I could see him kind of exceeding some of my own expectations coming out of the draft.

[SPEAKER_01]: and the landing spot, as you mentioned, is perfect and it's a better organization than it used to be.

[SPEAKER_01]: So he's not kind of getting that stink that you got with Rocky's picks a few years ago, that I think even Charlie Condon probably had to deal with.

[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe there's a little bit more positive here and you can look at his pathway to potentially, you know, opportunity in the major leagues being pretty short, as you mentioned, because of the lack of some of the depth in

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't dislike Belle, and I'm kind of moving a little bit more in the positive direction with him than I had been a few months ago, where I'm still very much out on Justin LeBron.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, we can, uh,

[SPEAKER_00]: briefly touch on him.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm lower on him too.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I was I ranked him like going into the draft, like basically as kind of, I just do not believe in you at all.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like I would not draft you at all.

[SPEAKER_00]: I wouldn't touch you in an FIPD.

[SPEAKER_00]: Then he comes out and he's like fairly productive.

[SPEAKER_00]: So then I moved him up to kind of where I think like maybe sort of

[SPEAKER_00]: a median, like what have been on him before the draft, but I still don't love the idea of using a first round FIPD pick on LeBron.

[SPEAKER_00]: Have you seen anything in the debut to kind of bring you up or is it just too easy to kind of point to the historical track of players that did what he did in his last year in college?

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, I think so like I expected Justin Lambron to be good against a ball competition.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like I think it's the way it is for any of these SEC type hitters that the rubber really meets the road for a lot of these guys.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's the same for ACE Reese.

[SPEAKER_01]: the rubber really meets the road for these guys once they get to AA.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're facing or advanced pitching then they've ever faced before.

[SPEAKER_01]: They're seeing a higher caliber of talent and not just talent but polished talent.

[SPEAKER_01]: Guys who have developed, you know, their pitch repertoire is and, you know, know what their ideal locations for a particular pitch in a particular account against a particular type of header, they're just executing at a higher level than you're seeing an able.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, it was good to see that the swing decisions were good like his contact rates were okay, but still not great.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, like running a 22.3% in zone with rate when you are in advanced SEC college hitter who played in every high level tournament and played on every USA baseball team and all that sort of thing, like you've seen good competition.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's not really impressive.

[SPEAKER_01]: He should come out and hit.

[SPEAKER_01]: The EVs were good, not great, 88.7 mile per hour average at 104.7, 90th.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like he's got power and speed.

[SPEAKER_01]: The attributes of Justin Lebron sound really good in a vacuum.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like you could sit there and be like, you could talk yourself, this guy could be a fantasy superstar.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's got 30, 30 upside, but the question is, is he a 200 hitter once he gets up to the big leagues?

[SPEAKER_01]: Because Justin Lebron does this every year.

[SPEAKER_01]: He would crush.

[SPEAKER_01]: non-conference competition.

[SPEAKER_01]: Absolutely destroy it.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then he would get into SEC competition and he wouldn't be among the top hitters in the league.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think going into last year, he probably had,

[SPEAKER_01]: The most the biggest disconnect between where he was in the rankings is he was top 10 at that point in time including for us versus what I was getting on feedback when I was talking to cross checkers and scouting directors and people that were pushing that push buttons in draft rooms it was just

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, we've seen this before, we've seen these college hitters that struggle in conference competition and have hit tool questions and it's not going to get easier once they get to the upper levels of the miners and eventually the major leagues and I think that's what the concern is because.

[SPEAKER_01]: He makes a ton of errors, but he's also a guy's really rangey.

[SPEAKER_01]: So even if he moves up a short stop, probably could be a phenomenal center fielder.

[SPEAKER_01]: He does run.

[SPEAKER_01]: There is power there.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's just I think that hits will might be a 30.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that's a big question.

[SPEAKER_01]: Lot of risk.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: I agree with everything you said there.

[SPEAKER_00]: Let's head to a quick break.

[SPEAKER_00]: But when we come back, got Drew Burris to talk about, got Zion Rose to talk about in Derrick Korea.

[SPEAKER_00]: All right, back with Jeff Ponds and Jeff, I'm, I'm higher on Drew Burris than several of the guys we've talked about so far, but I did want to lump Burris in with Zion Rose and Derek Couriel Rose and Couriel like there's there's impressive aspects of their games.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think Rose specifically like, you know, depending on what he does in the AFL.

[SPEAKER_00]: I could see his buzz kind of growing steadily into F.I.P.D.

[SPEAKER_00]: season.

[SPEAKER_00]: Burris though, like, I just, I love the track record.

[SPEAKER_00]: I love the ability to potentially help in all five categories, although I'm starting to wonder if he's going to maybe kind of go the way of like a,

[SPEAKER_00]: Like a light version of Corbin Carroll where Carol just got so focused on pulling fly balls that he's not really as much of an asset and batting average as I think he could be.

[SPEAKER_00]: Burst though, I, you know.

[SPEAKER_00]: at single-aid, putting up a ton of stats, contact rates, a little iffy there, but what do you think about like Burris, Rose, Curiel, like are they all in the same tier?

[SPEAKER_00]: Would you have one or two in a different tier than the others?

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, how are you feeling about those three outfielders that won the tap 10?

[SPEAKER_01]: I really like Drew Burris.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I think one of the things that you can look at with Burris and, you know, he kind of brought it up as a negative.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, he's very optimized for power.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's not the biggest guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's a smaller, he's strong.

[SPEAKER_01]: Little stalky, not in a negative way, but, you know, physical and muscular and he's explosive, but with smaller guys like that, you can't necessarily.

[SPEAKER_01]: hope to hit for power across like the entire park.

[SPEAKER_01]: I remember talking to Travis Besana for the draft a few years ago in Lake County, and you know he was really talking about kind of comparing himself to Juan Soto and the things Soto does he wants to do well and the kind of things that you know like he can't do.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like he's like I am never going to be in all fields power guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: like an Aaron judge.

[SPEAKER_01]: I just don't have like, you know, he's five eleven and he's like I'm not a big physical guy like I'm strong and I can work on all that, but my most power production is going to become from, you know, hitting the ball to the shortest part of the park, right, which is the pull side.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's optimized for that.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think in a lot of ways.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's not all that dissimilar as a hitter from like kettle marte.

[SPEAKER_01]: Where marte is like dead pole, heavy pole all the time, puts the ball in the air at a super high rate as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: Hit tools probably a little bit more polished, maybe with marte, but it's good with Burris.

[SPEAKER_01]: And he just plays with his hair on fire.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like there's a certain level of effort that comes with Drew Burris that

[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe it's an aesthetic thing, but I just buy into a little bit more, you know, there's maybe some swing and miss concern like the in the contact numbers were in good post draft.

[SPEAKER_01]: He did have like a really weird first couple of weeks where it seemed like he was getting his footing and then just went like nuclear and was, you know, hit for tons of power, all that sort of thing, the underlying data can always be a little bit fishy with some of this and it's kind of, you know,

[SPEAKER_01]: a contradiction.

[SPEAKER_01]: We go based on what I just said about Justin LeBron versus Drew Burris, but would Drew Burris, we've seen him hit good competition in college for a whole bunch of years.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, do I think he's going to be a fantasy superstar?

[SPEAKER_01]: No, but I think he could be

[SPEAKER_01]: A regular outfielder and leagues that start three outfielders let alone five that he's going to be a starting guy for you is going to give you really good consistent production.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, maybe the upside isn't as high as some of the other guys we've talked about with, you know, somebody like a flora who I think could potentially develop into, you know, one of the better pictures and baseball, you know, maybe doesn't have.

[SPEAKER_01]: The same sort of upside if everything works as a rock, maybe if you just start to run more in the power comes and all that sort of stuff, but I do think.

[SPEAKER_01]: When it comes to looking at college hitters in this draft that you can kind of see, all right, like I can see how this style of hitting this approach is going to work in pro ball.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think Drew Burris is right up there with some of the safest bets in the draft.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, consistently is hit for power hits the ball in the air hits the ball to his pull side and that's that's kind of his style of hitting.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think, you know, like you said like, you know, he's not going to be a fantasy superstar.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I look at like the outfield position.

[SPEAKER_00]: And...

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, I think it could be an outfielder to in like a 15 team league, like, you know, the guys that were taken kind of as outfielder to's in that two early, um, you ball draft or like, you know, CS is you key, um, you know, Cody Belinger, like, you know, chased a lot or Tyler Soderstrom, like those types of guys, like I think Burris,

[SPEAKER_00]: Will eventually kind of fit into that kind of range of player and you know, I didn't mean the sort of I didn't mean like the air pole as like a negative in terms of just like him as a player like I think he needs to do that, but it does I do think he's not.

[SPEAKER_00]: Perfectly fine.

[SPEAKER_00]: Zion rose.

[SPEAKER_00]: I know you're a Zion rose guy.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like I'm getting more into that.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think his floor is just really, really high.

[SPEAKER_00]: What do you think of roses ceiling?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, you know, if I wanted to get really goofy with this.

[SPEAKER_01]: The best way to put it is Zion rose is the player that I want in FYPDs.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's tough to rank him number one.

[SPEAKER_01]: what could.

[SPEAKER_01]: Especially in a draft like this, you know, it was a top 10 pick went 6 overall.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think there was probably maybe a little bit surprised.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like I came away from him at my pre-draft work.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like why isn't this guy a top 10 player in the class?

[SPEAKER_01]: Phenomenal athlete, you know,

[SPEAKER_01]: hit tool skills.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's the thing that you kind of take away from with Rose is just how well, how good of a job he does, you know, putting the bat on the ball across all pitch types, you know, his ability to discern balls and strikes at a really elite level, kind of, you know, pushes that to, you know,

[SPEAKER_01]: kind of another tier category, I think, among the hitters in this draft, can be a little passive at times, but I think that works.

[SPEAKER_01]: The big question with Rose is the angles, because the underlying power is there.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think there's more projection to, especially if you see the kind of build he has.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, he's going to run as well, um, you know, stole 24 bases this year at Louisville.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think, you know, stole 14 out of the draft on 15 attempts.

[SPEAKER_01]: Could be a guy that, you know, gets to 30 stolen bases with a high average while running really high walk rates.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then it's just a matter of, you know, can they optimize the swing enough to get a little bit more power?

[SPEAKER_01]: I think something that maybe sometimes gets overlooked.

[SPEAKER_01]: We say this by everybody.

[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, you can just add loft and add power.

[SPEAKER_01]: He has enough pure bat to ball skills to sacrifice some of that for better angles, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: Because with hitting, with pitching, with anything and sports, there's kind of like a series of dials.

[SPEAKER_01]: And you can turn one dial up, but it's likely going to turn down another dial, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: And it's a matter of finding a way to kind of balance

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think the guys that can make real swing changes and find more loft and, you know, ultimately home run power are guys like this that have the underlying EVs that have the physical composition to potentially add more strength in the coming years, but also guys that are good bats-a-ball hitters,

[SPEAKER_01]: that discern pitches really well.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that's too full.

[SPEAKER_01]: One, when you go for a more optimized swing, and this is any, you can do this with a little bit, or like your kid at home.

[SPEAKER_01]: As you start to try to hit for more loft, hit for more power, you're sacrificing a little bit of contact.

[SPEAKER_01]: There are going to be some pitches that you would swing down on, or, you know, kind of,

[SPEAKER_01]: kind of, you know, hit inside kind of inside out that are going to go into play that you're not necessarily maybe are going to swing a miss 5% more making that change.

[SPEAKER_01]: The other part of it is knowing which pitches you should swing at and which ones you shouldn't swing at.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of guys like this.

[SPEAKER_01]: The example I've always used dating back like 10 years now was McAlfredco.

[SPEAKER_01]: McAlfredco was an awesome prospect.

[SPEAKER_01]: Had power, had a really good bat to ball skills as well, but his swing decisions always put him into trouble.

[SPEAKER_01]: And it wasn't necessarily chasing out of the zone as much as it was like pitches in the zone that he should just stay away from and just take in first strike.

[SPEAKER_01]: He didn't do that.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think Rose does that.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think that Rose kind of has that

[SPEAKER_01]: perfect profile to potentially hit another level when it comes to hitting the ball and the air more hitting the ball to his pull side a little bit more.

[SPEAKER_01]: And he's big and he's physical and he's athletic and has the attributes to be able to make those changes.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think he's a really good player now, even if things don't change and he's more of like a 13 to 16 home run guy with big steals, good batting average, good on-base percentages could be a great points league player because of kind of the totality of his production.

[SPEAKER_01]: But the question there versus some of the other guys that we've talked about is, you know, does he have that 25 home run upside and is it something that we can really actualize at this point?

[SPEAKER_00]: about with Karel, like he's, you know, different types of player.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, Rose is the best athlete of anyone we talked about so far.

[SPEAKER_00]: Karel is a plus athlete, but yeah, I think he's got similar stolen based upside.

[SPEAKER_00]: Similar questions about how much power is going to show up.

[SPEAKER_00]: Is he, like a tier below, Rose and Burstie?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think some of it with him and it's funny because he does sort of fall into that same Zion Rose sort of category of a guy who has really good EVs like I think like sneaky good EVs had a 105 90th percentile this season at a 90.8 average exit velocity.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, the contact skills are excellent.

[SPEAKER_01]: Had a 92.1% zone contact rate this year with LSU 87.4 contact rate overall.

[SPEAKER_01]: Doesn't chase very much.

[SPEAKER_01]: He can be a little passive like it was a sub 60% zone swing, which is not a great number.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I think you'll take that with the guy like this getting on base at a high rate, hitting for a lot of contact.

[SPEAKER_01]: He does hit the ball hard.

[SPEAKER_01]: The question with him like with Rose is the angles and like,

[SPEAKER_01]: his angles are even worse than roses like his launch and his pull launch angle on college is your curial was negative 8.6 degrees.

[SPEAKER_01]: So he just really does not ever pull the ball in the air.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's something that, you know, for curial to become more than a good contributor in fantasy, like a fourth or fifth out field there.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that he needs to run, doesn't run as much as Rose does.

[SPEAKER_01]: At 15 total steel attempts, 13 stolen bases is here in 58 games.

[SPEAKER_01]: Only had three and 68 before that.

[SPEAKER_01]: The selling point here is the hit tool.

[SPEAKER_01]: A guy that can hit for a high average makes a ton of contact.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's gonna get on base at a really high clip.

[SPEAKER_01]: And because of what the EVs are, you can dream a little bit more, you know, on him potentially adding more power.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think where I get a little apprehensive is this is kind of the same.

[SPEAKER_01]: Dylan cruise hit for more power LSU, but it was still the same thing where there are some directional questions with cruise.

[SPEAKER_01]: I kind of wonder how this all plays out and like do the pirates have the ability to get this guy to a point where he is kind of lifting and pulling it a little bit more than he has previously.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, they paid him $6.2 million.

[SPEAKER_01]: I get a good feeling that they probably feel like they can and they've had some player development wins over the last couple of years, certainly some of the that the way that they remade or help remake Connor Griffin swing into what it is now allowed him to take that huge step forward.

[SPEAKER_01]: So if they can replicate some of that success with Derek Euryall, a guy who's been highly touted since he was at Orange Lutheran in California.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is a guy that I do think could break out and this is kind of what's funny about this James, I'll kick it back to you on this, but don't you feel like we're kind of saying a lot of the same things across this tier, but there's like a lot of guys that if this thing happens, then they're going to be the guy we view in five years as that should have been the no doubt one one.

[SPEAKER_01]: Here he else kind of in the mix there too because of the quality of the hits will and you know, track.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's I almost think you could make a you can make a pro case or anti case on any of this is like a great like first take draft like we could just go back and forth like trashing these guys or pumping them up like whichever one we wanted to do because

[SPEAKER_00]: Um, this was, I also felt like this was kind of a, a changing of the tide kind of draft where it just seemed like across the league.

[SPEAKER_00]: There was like a shift of like, we care more about hit tool than we have in the past and like it just felt like there were way fewer like, you know,

[SPEAKER_00]: So I think a lot of these players, like it's just kind of TBD on like how the development goes, like over this option.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so Jeff, like Eric Booth, we haven't talked about.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think I'm a little lower on Booth

[SPEAKER_00]: I just haven't really seen any swing of his that I really liked like the athleticism, but like he isn't just based on the like athletic testing date and stuff we have like it's not like like he's not the best athlete of all these guys like by mile like he's just a plus athlete and I don't I just don't really buy it as like a

[SPEAKER_00]: a likely thing for him to kind of maximize all of his tools.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think he'll get to the big leagues and he'll be a fantasy piece.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I just think he's going to be a flawed player.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I can't really get into the idea of taking him over a lot of the guys we've talked about so far.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if you want to sell me on booth.

[SPEAKER_01]: No, I mean, because I think that I've kind of gone the other way a little bit, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: The debut hasn't been great.

[SPEAKER_01]: The feedback on the debut hasn't been great.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's not really projectable.

[SPEAKER_01]: The selling point for me on Booth.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think sometimes like this goes back to what we were saying.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, with Emerson being kind of the consensus one one, then it's like the idea of Emerson is what we like and you know, I think when when I did the FYPD list none of these guys had debuted yet it was like days after the the draft and guys are signing, et cetera.

[SPEAKER_01]: Or might have been right after the signing deadline, but it was before guys at debuted and

[SPEAKER_01]: booth was a guy that like when you look at the athletic testing you look at some of the video you're like all right like this is this is a physical like specimen this is a guy that has upside there is power here there's speed there's athleticism he's already like physically.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know very strong and you know has that impact and I think you then look at a lot of the underlying data that we have from like.

[SPEAKER_01]: the high school showcase circuit and he had a really large sample size where he hit for kind of a ton of contact the chase rates and the swing decisions were good and he was posting really impressive exit velocity data while also making contact which does not necessarily go hand in hand in the amateur world particularly on the showcase circuit.

[SPEAKER_01]: Your big EV guys are typically guys that are swinging and missing a little bit more.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, goes highly, you know, the Orioles player development is like a tale of like two cities.

[SPEAKER_01]: There was a point in time where everything was great and grand and Gunnar Henderson's coming up and Adley Rushman and they got all these guys and everybody's getting developed and they do a phenomenal job and then like the last two years, it's just fell falling off the cliff.

[SPEAKER_01]: And now no one believes in the Orioles ability to develop these guys.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think that's kind of sticking with Booth a little bit because he didn't look great in the, you know, post draft debut, and it's, let's see if we talk about what tastes the same.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's always tough to take away a ton from high school debut is out for the draft.

[SPEAKER_01]: These guys were, you know,

[SPEAKER_01]: Playing high school competition regardless of whether they're in the Southern CIF and facing some of the best high school competition in the country, it's still high school competition versus pro competition.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, it's expected that they're going to look a little bad, but I just think the lack of projection and some thoughts that maybe the body could go the other way and some of the things that make Ruth kind of special and interesting could start to dissipate and, you know, evaporate a little bit in the coming years.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's a guy that's seen his stock drop a lot, where I had him three or four.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'd probably have him outside of the top 10 now, you know, more in line with some of the bigger risk college guys and then that next year of high school bats.

[SPEAKER_01]: So an interesting player, but we've, you know, it hasn't been all sunshine and rainbows with booth even dating back to pre-draft in terms of the feedback on him.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, so I'll take a risk on a guy like that early.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think as we update this list, I think both of us are pretty aligned that he's so much move outside of that top five now.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I felt like ace Reese was

[SPEAKER_00]: definitely a guy that had some flaws, but I sort of liked him the most of the kind of bottom of the defense of spectrum college hitters in the class.

[SPEAKER_00]: And his debut is kind of weird because he, the surface stats are amazing.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's at single lay though, and the under the hood stats are really bad.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I would always kind of throw out A3's debut.

[SPEAKER_00]: But what do you think about the player?

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, is he going to hit enough to be a first-based

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, you know, this is this guy was one of the best power hitters in college baseball over the last few years.

[SPEAKER_01]: Really good as freshman year at Houston before he transferred to Mississippi State as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, when you look at the top power hitters in college baseball.

[SPEAKER_01]: There were only a few guys that were really within.

[SPEAKER_01]: Ace Reese's stratosphere.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think the EVs will be better.

[SPEAKER_01]: They were a better in college.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's his ability to consistently just find barrels.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think if I'm not mistaken, I'm pulling the numbers up right here, but I believe that he finished second or third in all a college baseball and barrels last year, one of the highest barrel rates, he had a 35% barrel rate.

[SPEAKER_01]: So even among the barrel leaders, he actually had a higher barrel rate than Gavin Kelly, who will be a top of the FYPD pick in 2027 West Virginia catcher.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, his rate was as high as anybody in college baseball, he just hits the ball consistently hard, you know, his average exit velocity in college this year was 95.1 miles per hour, his average launch angle was 17.9 degrees.

[SPEAKER_01]: he's just an optimized power hitter.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think there's probably enough hit tool there that you can see him as like a 240 250 sort of a hitter in his good seasons.

[SPEAKER_01]: It could be some bad years.

[SPEAKER_01]: He'll walk.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I think this is a 25 to 30 home run back.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, it could come with like I said, not a lot of supporting stats.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's not going to steal a lot of bases.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's probably not going to help you in batting average.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know if he's going to be a total zero.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, but you know, it's a big physical third baseman that probably moves to first base long term.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, with guys like this, I don't know.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, if he ends up having Spencer Torkelson's career, I don't think it's a bad outcome, you know.

[SPEAKER_01]: But it's probably more of like a corner infielder spot guy or utility spot guy than like a top 10 to 12 first basement in the game.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, yeah, I think that's that's how I see it too.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it's, you can't, uh, can't have too many run producers on your fantasy roster.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think he'll be in like a fourth or fifth spot in the lineup.

[SPEAKER_00]: Um, and he probably isn't going to need that much time in the minors, uh, day series.

[SPEAKER_01]: The park don't can help them.

[SPEAKER_00]: The park definitely don't help.

[SPEAKER_01]: No, he's a kind of guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: Kind of hope like, do they have another trade with Cincinnati in the words?

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, a good thing they've locked up Josh Nailer for the next like seven years or whatever.

[SPEAKER_00]: Trevor Condon with the Cardinals,

[SPEAKER_00]: He had a pretty solid debut, and I, you know, the Cardinals have the deepest system in the game, but in Condon kind of as this top pick by this new front office, he'll be giving every chance, every chance to be there, like lead off hit or someday.

[SPEAKER_00]: Where do you sort of see the upside with Condon?

[SPEAKER_00]: Like I think that he likes to run, I kind of think he sort of like a high

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and it was a weird debut in the sense that like he it was a talented team and he really didn't play every day so it was kind of like one day on one day off couple days off he's back in a game.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, so he only played in seven games, but I think was there for for three weeks.

[SPEAKER_01]: But the numbers were good.

[SPEAKER_01]: And you know, did show some of the power.

[SPEAKER_01]: I love the swing.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's a really unusual load in that he really gets deep into the back hip and it's a big leg kick.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, but he gets the foot down and he's always on time with the barrel.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I think he

[SPEAKER_01]: The ability to manipulate the barrel and I think like that's one of the elements with hits tool that gets a little bit.

[SPEAKER_01]: like underrated where people talk about contact and they talk about swing decisions and those plate skills are kind of a defines a hit tool for people.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think sort of the third element of that is hitting the ball at good angles and being able to manipulate the barrel.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like that's what separated Jose Al Tuve from so many hitters for so many years.

[SPEAKER_01]: This is an enjoy a motto and moochy that's being, Alex Brighman being other examples.

[SPEAKER_01]: Guys that just caught,

[SPEAKER_01]: really clean backspin and, you know, regardless of where the pitch was in the zone, they kind of catch the barrel at the right angle consistently.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's something that's measured with like variable bat angle or VBA.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's like kind of along those lines.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like those guys that are kind of special in their ability to adjust with their hands.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's got that.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's also super twitchy.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's swaggy and kind of fun too.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, minor league baseball games, they're going to give an evening.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's kind of nice to see somebody that plays a little bit of passion, a little bit of excitement.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's going to run and I just think, you know, a guy that can contribute potentially five categories.

[SPEAKER_01]: I love Trevor Condon.

[SPEAKER_01]: I could see him being higher than even some of the other, you know, high school guys that we've talked about.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think I'm there, I think I'm there too now, you know, and I was really high on Condon versus consensus like out of the draft and now it feels like I maybe didn't even move him up enough.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, um, a player that I like a lot, I have a lot of faith in what the Cardinals have going on.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, kind of an aside, it was, you know, working with with, um,

[SPEAKER_01]: ranking all the different farm systems and part of the exercise you had to find some guys that were disappointments

[SPEAKER_01]: And we really struggled to find some disappointments in the St. Louis farm system because even like a guy like Liam Doyle who had a bad first half, had a phenomenal second half as one of the best pictures in AA, you know, over the last few months, the season.

[SPEAKER_01]: So can't really put him in there.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was like a struggle to find somebody that didn't have a better year this year than they had previously.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that was top to bottom across the system, 40 plus players.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think you could take something away from that because we talked about this beforehand when we were talking about, you know, dealing crews and Elijah Green, and maybe how impacted their development was by the fact that they went to an archaic player development organization, like the nationals at that point in time.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I don't think it's a shock that we've seen some improvements from Elijah Green in a big way.

[SPEAKER_01]: He actually had a pre-decent season, surprisingly.

[SPEAKER_01]: when he was probably close to being a release candidate within the next year.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then Dylan Cruz who really was probably one of the bigger disappointments we've had an FYPD in the last decade, he started to make some improvements as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think you can look at you know good player development scenarios as like an added bonus or maybe it adds a little

[SPEAKER_01]: level of certainty or kind of negates a little bit of risk that you have with all these guys and you do have some confidence in that.

[SPEAKER_01]: This player is going into a good player development scenario and situation and, you know, it makes the likelihood of them turning into what we want them to turn into as fantasy managers.

[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe a little bit more power.

[SPEAKER_00]: All right, Jeff, let's just wrap it up with two more prep hitters here.

[SPEAKER_00]: Jared Grindlinger with the angels and bowl or ants with the Dodgers.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think they're interesting to kind of compare contrast both got, you know, big bonuses or ants is like a big time athlete and he's sort of.

[SPEAKER_00]: hit over power now, but I think the expectation is that there's just going to be big power potential down the road and then grindlinger has just extreme like elite contact data as an amateur and kind of just questions about how much power he'll grow into, but he also doesn't turn 18 until April.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, grindlinger versus Larence, who do you have?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: I prefer LaRance just more for the power and the athlete and the upside.

[SPEAKER_01]: But that's not the say that it doesn't come with significant risk.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's some concerns with some scouts about the swing and some of that stuff and how well it's going to project.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think that the Dodgers have always done the best job with high school picks in the draft.

[SPEAKER_01]: They do well with international guys.

[SPEAKER_01]: They do good with college guys.

[SPEAKER_01]: They do great at identifying the prospects that are in your system that they want that they could make there.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know if they do a good job with high school players though.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, um, their track record there is a little murky.

[SPEAKER_01]: So maybe that adds in a little concern.

[SPEAKER_01]: I will say,

[SPEAKER_01]: contact numbers on the showcase circuit.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're pretty good.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was a 12.9% in Zone Miff rate.

[SPEAKER_01]: The Chase rate was right in line with average.

[SPEAKER_01]: He hits the ball really hard.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's a predictable player as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I tend to infancy in just kind of in real life scenarios too.

[SPEAKER_01]: I tend to gravitate more toward

[SPEAKER_01]: that kind of a player.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're maybe there's a little bit more inherent risk with that profile, but the other side of it is the payoff of this all clicks is maybe a 2020 guy and those guys are, you know, worth their, their weight and gold and fantasy.

[SPEAKER_01]: The other side of it is grinning or has an outlier hits will and the players that I've been wrong about in the early going at least have been guys like this Jacob Wilson now will some came back to earth a little bit last year, but I'd be lying if I ever expected a season like he had in 2025, you know, another one would be I came around to this one.

[SPEAKER_01]: quickly, but like Kevin McGonagall, you know, I think McGonagall had more power, but was really like a hit tool focus player that had, you know, outlier contact numbers on the showcase circuit, kind of like Greenling or did, maybe underrated that a little bit.

[SPEAKER_01]: And there's others.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know,

[SPEAKER_01]: Is it maybe my own personal biases that lean me toward Lorenz versus Grindlinger?

[SPEAKER_01]: Because there were a lot of smart teens and a lot of smart people in front of offices that were very bought in on Grindlinger.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that Grindlinger is a player, though, that's always going to rate really highly in models.

[SPEAKER_01]: Because models value contact skills to an extreme degree.

[SPEAKER_01]: They value swing decisions.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's always going to hit for a high average.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's going to get on base.

[SPEAKER_01]: and his age when he factor that into the models as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: So when we talk to everybody's a model team, but I think there are certain teams that maybe take a little bit higher value in their own personal models.

[SPEAKER_01]: The teams that are really data driven in that sense tend to chase these contact guys to red socks being an example of one.

[SPEAKER_01]: really like Jared Greenlinger and I think the H stuff plus the it might be 70 grade contact now it's just a matter of okay does he have some of the power that is brothers shown the EVs were actually pretty damn good on the showcase circuit um you can't he replicate that can he put the ball in the air consistently

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, and he's probably not going to run a whole ton.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it is a very hit tool driven profile.

[SPEAKER_01]: But it would be in, that's where the game's going, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: What would be a power output for Grindlinger, like age 25, age 26 that would like surprise you?

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, would you be surprised if he was a 25 homeer guy in his 20s?

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think more like 15 to 18 is kind of like the range that I would put him in.

[SPEAKER_01]: But it could be 15 to 18 with a 290 to like a 310 batting average, which we don't really see a whole lot of guys that can do that anymore.

[SPEAKER_01]: Right.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's just so tough because the I struggled to think of like a six foot three guy as young as he is with his context skills who we would just say isn't going to hit 20 homers like it's just what like yeah, you might be right.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like it just seems like anyone that's that big and that young and that makes that much contact like you should be able to get there.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, we've seen guys historically that maybe don't hit first, much power as you expect.

[SPEAKER_01]: Eric Osmo was a big guy, James Looney was a big guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, we have seen that kind of profile before maybe not, you know, turn into, you know, 20, 25 home run at the hitter.

[SPEAKER_01]: There we go.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I don't think you're necessarily wrong.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think maybe we're saying some of the same stuff that we would have said about a Freddy Freeman early in his career with the braids, where it was more like a 17 to 19 home run hitter, and then we eventually saw those 25 30 home run seasons come.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I do think if you're going to gamble on a guy adding power, somebody adding a tool and jumping to grades.

[SPEAKER_01]: The best bet of in that scenario is probably betting on hits will guys gaining power.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's tough to gain speed, it's tough for power guys to gain two grades and hit till we don't see that, you know?

[SPEAKER_01]: So if you're gonna bet on one tool making a significant jump from a 17-18-year-old kid to when he's 25, it should be the power tool.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I don't think it's unreasonable.

[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe I'm being a little overly cautious.

[SPEAKER_00]: Well Jeff, I mean, we talked about 15 guys here were pushing 75 minutes.

[SPEAKER_00]: So like this is, uh, I mean, we said some negative things about, you know, most of these guys.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think we only really buried like a couple of them and I think there's a lot of guys where I think if you just kind of keep peeling it back.

[SPEAKER_00]: There's there's more stuff to like a, a,

[SPEAKER_00]: I like this class.

[SPEAKER_00]: I like the guys sort of in the middle.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's just I do not envy the people that have to take the first drafty from this class in their flight PD.

[SPEAKER_00]: But next week we're going to get into all of our favorite sleepers from the class and my top 100 FYPD prospects from this draft class that article should be up on the site by the time we're listening to