[SPEAKER_00]: Hello everybody, Jay Jay Cooper Carlos class of Baseball American Draft podcast, I say it every week, I feel like this one really is going to be a fun one because we are looking back at the 2018 MLB draft this series we're doing we're kind of looking back year by year we started last week if you didn't check out last week's we did 2017 which was Carlos's first year up in cover the draft but 2018 man just brought back a lot of memories

[SPEAKER_01]: it's always 2018.

[SPEAKER_01]: You feel stress.

[SPEAKER_01]: I feel more excited to talk about 2018 because like I mentioned last week, 2017 was kind of a partial cycle for me, and 2018 I have much more vivid memories of these players kind of the cycle as a whole, who I was really high on, who I was really low on.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was the first year that I covered the draft on Emile B Network, John and Hudson had left.

[SPEAKER_01]: the summer I believe the summer of 2017 or fall somewhere in that range.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it was like me and you kind of first time JJ, full draft cycles, new people running the show really for baseball America.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so I have much stronger memories of this group.

[SPEAKER_01]: I saw a lot of these players in person.

[SPEAKER_01]: And there's a plenty of fun storylines to get into.

[SPEAKER_01]: So where should we start?

[SPEAKER_00]: I'll say, I just want to say, like the reason I feel stressed is exactly what you just laid out, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Which is, is that this was the draft.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'll never forget right after the draft day one of the draft ended, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think me and you ended up like struggling to find somewhere to eat.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think it was a Mexican restaurant we needed.

[SPEAKER_00]: And it was like just the relief of like, because this was the draft, as you said,

[SPEAKER_00]: Hudson who've been doing the draft for us was gone.

[SPEAKER_00]: This was your first year as the lead draft writer.

[SPEAKER_00]: John manual been editor and chief was gone.

[SPEAKER_00]: And this was first year.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like so, I think we both felt kind of the enormity of we can't drop the ball here.

[SPEAKER_00]: And again, when the draft was day one was over, it's like, I don't think we dropped the ball.

[SPEAKER_00]: So like that felt good.

[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe it was the, you know, but.

[SPEAKER_00]: But what I would say with it is that

[SPEAKER_00]: It also is, I think it is both, this draft isn't that far in the background now, but I think as we talk through it, I think that there's a lot of this draft that if you redrafted this now, it's amazing I think how different some of this would be.

[SPEAKER_00]: But we should start at the top, and if we're gonna start at the top, I feel like that this was a year, I wanna get your memories so more than mine.

[SPEAKER_00]: So Casey Mice was our number one.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's the guy.

[SPEAKER_00]: The Tigers took him number one.

[SPEAKER_00]: He had a dominant year that year for Auburn.

[SPEAKER_00]: Was this the a year where we had a clear like, oh, we know who's going number one or was this more of Ismice the guy?

[SPEAKER_01]: I think my eyes became the guy during the spring.

[SPEAKER_01]: It definitely wasn't a year like 2019 or 2023, where we had very obvious college premium position players like Natalie Ruchman or Dylan Cruz, who were at the top of the board and kind of stuck there, wire to wire.

[SPEAKER_01]: We didn't have the sort of elite high school player, like a Bryce Harper who's like a no doubt obvious.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think,

[SPEAKER_01]: The summer prior, or heading into the summer, it was a price to ring, is probably this top high school hitter in the class.

[SPEAKER_01]: He struggled in the summer, and so his stock fell a little bit.

[SPEAKER_01]: We had Brady Singer near the top of the board throughout the cycle.

[SPEAKER_01]: He kind of maintained his status for us, but Casey Myers really came out during the spring.

[SPEAKER_01]: and establish himself as sort of the clear top player in the class and so heading into the draft.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was nice for me kind of first time mocking it.

[SPEAKER_01]: It felt pretty likely that Casey Minds was going to be the player.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think we had him projected there.

[SPEAKER_01]: He went there and he is paned out reasonably well, not the player you'd take in hindsight, but if you're looking at one one misses, he wouldn't be near the top of that list and a number of different

[SPEAKER_01]: demos and it was interesting too because we hadn't had a draft where there was a picture going one one in a few years.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think most of the time people obviously want hitters, but yeah, I think Casey Mice during the spring with his dominance with Auburn that year showing the sort of elite wipeout splitter that he had or remember a lot of conversations about, oh, do you want to take a picture who is so reliant on this pitch?

[SPEAKER_01]: It's like more likely to lead to injuries,

[SPEAKER_01]: in such impressive performance that he sort of took on that one-one role and kept it through the draft.

[SPEAKER_00]: I will say, like what you said, like if you did it over, would you pick a one one?

[SPEAKER_00]: But I think that there's two different ways you can look at that, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: You can do the re-rank where you say now that we are here eight years out, who would go one one.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that the more realistic way to do that is among the players who are in the consideration who would go one one.

[SPEAKER_00]: And you could argue in that, like, we have Bray's singer, four on R rankings, and Bray's singer has had a

[SPEAKER_00]: a better career so far, like less injuries, most importantly, you could say, I think you could say that Bryce Terrain, who we had 14 on our board, but I don't think that Bryce Terrain really was in any way in the mix at one one by, you know, by draft day.

[SPEAKER_01]: So like, yeah, so we had Bryce Terrain ranked 14th of all.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, again, going into the summer, he definitely was in consideration, but one of the things that stands out to me about this class is there's something to take away of the Bryce to rank path and how aggressive should we be in knocking players who enter the summer as the top and maybe don't.

[SPEAKER_00]: Um, live up to that hype, but um, the other thing here is going to be, and also how much do you push up guys who seem to be really rising up boards late.

[SPEAKER_00]: We'll get into that as well.

[SPEAKER_00]: But my, I would say like, you, I think you had on a key part before we go on to other guys is that.

[SPEAKER_00]: Miles had the success.

[SPEAKER_00]: He took a step forward in his draft year.

[SPEAKER_00]: I would say that the biggest knocks on him were concerns about the pitch arsenal as far as injuries and concerns about the delivery.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that there were some teams or a little bit more concern about whether he would hold up.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I would say, here we are eight years later, I think you could say like,

[SPEAKER_00]: Those are, those have been fair concerns.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, if funny thing about it is literally we know, like you say, this is where I say the difference of, you say, okay, well, who would you go on first overall?

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, Casey Mies ended up not being the most important starting pitcher that the tiger's drafted in this class.

[SPEAKER_00]: But let's just also be clear, like you would have to have perfect clarity, like, hey, this, this terrible, scooble up at Seattle who's not pitched a whole lot.

[SPEAKER_00]: number one pick, you didn't know that at the time.

[SPEAKER_00]: But going kind of beyond one, I feel like that this was a top of the class where you had a lot of productive college hitters.

[SPEAKER_00]: But a lot of, I have the beholder of which one of these guys did you want to go with.

[SPEAKER_00]: Joy Bart goes second over all the giants.

[SPEAKER_00]: Alan Bongo's third to the fillies.

[SPEAKER_00]: Nick Madrigal goes fourth to the white socks.

[SPEAKER_00]: Johnson, India fifth to the red.

[SPEAKER_00]: So that is four college position players.

[SPEAKER_00]: Bang, bang, bang, bang.

[SPEAKER_00]: Right for real.

[SPEAKER_00]: All of whom have been big ligars, all of whom have had moments, I would say that, you know, India probably has the best season of that group, bone probably have the best career so far, I would also say though, none of whom have set the world on fire, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I don't think this group.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, similar.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, Joey Bart was maybe the most significant up arrow trajectory player that I can remember of this group.

[SPEAKER_01]: We didn't start him out in this range on the board.

[SPEAKER_01]: Nick Madrigal was always really fascinating player.

[SPEAKER_01]: There were a lot of unique profiles in this class in Nick Madrigal.

[SPEAKER_01]: I remember we had really wide ranging opinions on him because he was so small and there were real questions about his power and those critics of Nick Madrigal's power, whether that's going to kind of torpedo the sort of value he can

[SPEAKER_01]: what nine years of hindsight that we've had now, but he was sort of this just really unusual prospect with tremendously impressive contactability.

[SPEAKER_01]: You felt good about the defensive skill and he was always near the top and I think

[SPEAKER_01]: Like if we had more ability to look at bad at ball data and this draft, I don't think Nick Magigal is going to go inside the top 10.

[SPEAKER_01]: I wonder if that's true, that's my kind of hunch.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then the other thing too, you see, Jared Kellenek here is the first player who's going after this run of college bats that you mentioned.

[SPEAKER_01]: The thing that stands out to me, maybe the biggest overriding theme of this 2018 class for me.

[SPEAKER_01]: and in hindsight now it really stands out.

[SPEAKER_01]: This was a massively well-regarded high school pitching class.

[SPEAKER_01]: At the time I was covering it I remember so it would have been 2017.

[SPEAKER_01]: It was the summer circuit for these players.

[SPEAKER_01]: The 2017 PG National event where we saw Kumar Rocker, Ethan Hankin's Slate

[SPEAKER_01]: like eye opening experience for me and I remember just talking to scouts and like, hey, this might be one of the better high school pitching classes, reverb covered.

[SPEAKER_01]: And if you look at the volume of high school pitchers that just went inside the first round and really high, you have Ryan Weathers.

[SPEAKER_01]: Number seven to the podries Carter Stewart number eight to the braves Grayson Rodriguez number 11 to the Orioles Cole win 15 to the Rangers.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's four high school pictures inside the top 15 that alone

[SPEAKER_01]: feels crazy and would be remarkable today.

[SPEAKER_01]: After that you have Matthew Libre Tour number 16 to the race.

[SPEAKER_01]: We had number two on our board, both Libertor and then Brady Singer sliding into this middle range was maybe one of the bigger surprises on draft day.

[SPEAKER_01]: Beyond Libre Tour, you also have

[SPEAKER_01]: I think we have two more in the top 30.

[SPEAKER_01]: Mason Dennerberg, number 27 to the nationals, who Mason Dennerberg has absolutely not pinned out as a pro, but he was spectacular as a high school pitcher.

[SPEAKER_01]: I remember being really excited about his fastball curveball athleticism combo and then JT again, number 30 to the Dodgers.

[SPEAKER_01]: He didn't sign one of a couple players in this first round, actually he didn't sign, but it stands out to me.

[SPEAKER_01]: just how much more willing the industry seemed to be with taking those players in the first round and probably how most of that group hasn't paned out is why we don't see that as much anymore.

[SPEAKER_01]: In addition to I think the talent did warrant it at the time but the industry is very hesitant for for these profiles for exactly the reason you see when you line this board up in hindsight

[SPEAKER_01]: Right now, maybe Ryan weather's hot, yeah, Ryan weather's probably would be the guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and none of them.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think you would take top 30.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, again, would you say take top 30?

[SPEAKER_00]: If you're doing a redraft now with perfect knowledge.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: I would say like Ryan weather has panned out better than a number of other guys taking around him from other demographics.

[SPEAKER_00]: But, you know, yes, if you said overall, no, and not with the other thing that is note, like we'll

[SPEAKER_00]: This is also one of the last classes where players just didn't sign.

[SPEAKER_00]: So we have two first rounders, Matt McLean, JT again, out of high school who both don't sign, go on to college and go on to be prominent guys in college you get drafted high again.

[SPEAKER_00]: Gunner Hogland, same story from the supplemental first round.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's it.

[SPEAKER_00]: Carter Stewart will get into like at pick eight, you know, that's a a lot more than you have seen nowadays.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, four players in the first 36 picks.

[SPEAKER_01]: If we saw that, I don't remember how we reacted to that at the time, but like thinking back to that now, that's a massive mystery.

[SPEAKER_01]: And it's also kind of surprising because I'm pulling it up now.

[SPEAKER_01]: there were no other players inside the top 10 outside of those four so really unusual clustering of like impact players taken high really important for team's draft strategies obviously the Carter Stewart is maybe the most notable the most memorable he's had maybe those most interesting well there are two players who actually taken really close to each other

[SPEAKER_00]: I want to touch on part and I'm bone and all those guys like I do agree for a madrug out like the other thing I was saying about madrug all like if we had bad about data and I would say now the other thing is is he was drafted as a short stop

[SPEAKER_00]: He was not a shortstop in college though.

[SPEAKER_00]: Cagagradier, who was taken relatively high as well by the Orioles, was, or he was the shortstop in Oregon State, magical as the second baseman.

[SPEAKER_00]: And there were real questions about whether magical was a shortstop in Pro Ball as well.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's a profile that I would say nowadays.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's just hard for me to imagine going top, a likely second baseman with,

[SPEAKER_00]: real power concerns, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: It was not, there was even without the bad of all data, which we didn't have at the time.

[SPEAKER_00]: There still was a pretty clear understanding.

[SPEAKER_00]: This was going to be a, if it worked out, it was going to be a high average low power, most likely second baseman.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I just don't know if that guy goes anywhere, like you said, I don't think that guy goes close to that

[SPEAKER_01]: nine home runs in his three years at Oregon State.

[SPEAKER_01]: He had one home run as a freshman.

[SPEAKER_01]: He had four home runs as a sophomore.

[SPEAKER_01]: And he had, excuse me, eight home runs.

[SPEAKER_01]: He had three home runs as a junior.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like three home runs as a junior.

[SPEAKER_01]: actively playing second base, he did have that hand injury, 42 games, but still just the overall resume of power, like it's a completely different power question than someone like Travis Bizana, who was the first ever second baseman to go one-one, like there was both in terms of the underlying data that we had available, and just purely the home run results that he showed in college, an entirely different level of physicality.

[SPEAKER_01]: I do think think Magigal stands out as

[SPEAKER_01]: The 2018 draft feels dated, looking at Nick Madrigal going there because it just does seem a bit unfathomable now in a current era, like next year, for player with that profile went that high, we would all look around and kind of be stunned.

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, let me put this out.

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, we talk about having hindsight, right, and I don't want to make some.

[SPEAKER_00]: We had Nico Horner ranked 40 second.

[SPEAKER_01]: the the cops took him in the late first round and he's been a vastly superior player and if you read the role has been the best player in this entire draft among players who who signed any round in terms of baseball reference war, it's Nico Horner and then Terex school will right behind him.

[SPEAKER_01]: So in terms of productive big leagueers, he's the guy.

[SPEAKER_00]: And Nico Horner at Stanford was their shortstop.

[SPEAKER_00]: And he was all packed 12 defensive team as a shortstop.

[SPEAKER_00]: He had hit six homers and 40 games with a wood bat in the cape, which basically almost equals Nick Maddergo's power production for his college career.

[SPEAKER_00]: He,

[SPEAKER_00]: look likely to have a chance to stay at shore stop or at least be valuable defensively at somewhere, you know, in the infield.

[SPEAKER_00]: And maybe second base, but it's like, but with a power hit profile, as opposed to magicals hit, no power profile, I just think if this was done nowadays, if this draft happened now, I think you would have been those two would have much closer

[SPEAKER_01]: Probably so, but even if you look at Nico Horner's power production in college, it's not super exciting.

[SPEAKER_01]: He hit 117 and 58 games, and then during his draft year, he only hit 2.

[SPEAKER_01]: He still had some power questions as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: The point about the wood bat, you're really putting a lot of your weight of his power production with that 40-game stint in the cap, which also looking at that, seeing 40 games from a player.

[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, the Cape Codley has a hitter, it would be nice to have that again.

[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, I think that's a tremendous pick for the cops, obviously, one of the most impressive and it does feel like it'd be more likely for those players to be a little bit closer together if we did it today.

[SPEAKER_00]: So we are going to get into the two craziest and one of the two the wildest stories from the top 10 in the draft in a very long time, we'll do that right after this quick break.

[SPEAKER_00]: And we're back.

[SPEAKER_00]: So Carlos, we do have to get into

[SPEAKER_00]: Pick 8, Carter Stewart does not sign, which I believe is the last top 10 pick to not snow.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think it is.

[SPEAKER_00]: Goomar Rocker Rocker Rock 10.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, 10.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then Kyler Murray picked 9th the A's who did sign.

[SPEAKER_00]: But never played an official pro baseball game is a quarterback now for the Minnesota Vikings after being the quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals after being the, and the Heisman trophy winner.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, so let's start with Carter Stewart.

[SPEAKER_00]: So if Stewart was, I would say, one of the up arrow pitchers that spring.

[SPEAKER_00]: really good breaking ball and Braves took him eight overall and then this is a case where and we've seen this before, we've seen this, we'll see this, you know, this is one of those where there was disagreement about his medical to some extent.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so the Braves wanted to offer him

[SPEAKER_00]: Again, this was something that was seismic at the time because Stuart instead signed to go to Japan and

[SPEAKER_00]: knowing what the rules were that we're already in place, the showyotani rules are the in place.

[SPEAKER_00]: So you knew, again, the showyotani's already signed at this point.

[SPEAKER_00]: So you knew that by doing so, to come back as a foreign professional free agent, you were gonna have to spend seven years there, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: And here we are, like at the time,

[SPEAKER_00]: I would say, again, I don't want it, but at the time we did not write this, there was a lot of thought out there of, oh, Carter Stewart has found the new loophole, which never made any sense to me, because this isn't a loophole.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is a very life-changing decision to say, I'm going to move halfway around the world for a long time.

[SPEAKER_00]: for the possibility of maybe really cashing in if I come back later.

[SPEAKER_00]: And here we are, Carter's story is still in the MPB.

[SPEAKER_00]: Had to, you know, has had some decent seasons out of very solid season 24, injured in 25, back in 26, ERI those above five, sitting in the 93, 94 range.

[SPEAKER_00]: He hasn't been terrible, but at the same time, he hasn't kind of set the world on fire in the MPB either.

[SPEAKER_00]: And not coincidentally, we haven't seen that this did not open any floodgates into a wave of players deciding to get around the draft by going to Japan.

[SPEAKER_00]: Why not?

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, Carter Stewart is just now eligible to come back to the US.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yes.

[SPEAKER_01]: And this is too long.

[SPEAKER_00]: Time ago, KCby's is eligible for free agency as a, you know, as just a drafted pro.

[SPEAKER_01]: Right, like you said initially, it is a significant change in your life and just the trajectory of your pro career.

[SPEAKER_01]: Because let's set down some details at the timeline.

[SPEAKER_01]: It wasn't the case where Carter Stewart, I think there were questions about his wrist in the medical, that surface that led the brace to be more concerned.

[SPEAKER_01]: They offered him a lower bonus, Carter Stewart's like, no, I'm healthy.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm throwing.

[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not going to sign for Listen, we agreed to he he doesn't sign and then he goes to Eastern Florida State Junior College.

[SPEAKER_01]: It wasn't until the following May in 2019 Where he actually signed this six year 7 million dollar contract at the at the time that he signed this this deal to go over to Japan.

[SPEAKER_01]: We had him ranked as the number 38 prospect

[SPEAKER_01]: In next year's draft class of 2019 some shirts the case where he's trying to get a fuel for what his market is where he's going to go and as a former top 10 overall prospect thinking about the money you could have signed for and you were expecting to sign for and the willingness clearly to go to Japan for again six years was the initial contract he signed for.

[SPEAKER_01]: Getting that 7 million-dollar bonus or I'm not sure if it was a bonus or late-throw at the contrary the way he signed for six years and 7 million It is not I thought like you said it's not a loophole where every player who doesn't get what they want the draft is going to be itching to sign up to this

[SPEAKER_01]: for most players, I mean, for every single player, the obvious route would just be going to college for a year or two and trying to reboot your stock and then try to get in a few years.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it was pretty insane.

[SPEAKER_01]: Also for Carter's shirt, just from the actual pitching prospect, I think Carter's favorite for me is the first like 3,000 RPM

[SPEAKER_01]: Breaking ball spinning pitcher I can remember this was around the time where just spin capacity in general and and track man data for high school players was becoming a lot more prevalent remember at the time

[SPEAKER_01]: think perfect game even to like oh this is the highest spin track breaking ball we've ever seen and for years after this like Carter Stewart's breaking ball to me was sort of the benchmark hey like if you see three thousand RPMs no one but Carter Stewart does that now we see pitchers getting to that threshold a little bit more frequently even still like a three thousand RPM breaking ball is nothing to to scoff at but I remember him being like the kind of the first guy remember throwing a break ball like that and the the shape and movement of the pitch was just

[SPEAKER_01]: just silly at the time.

[SPEAKER_01]: He was also a really present golfer if I remember correctly as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: So fun prospect.

[SPEAKER_01]: Also he went right around where we had him ranked at the time here.

[SPEAKER_01]: We had him nine overall.

[SPEAKER_01]: He did go right in that range.

[SPEAKER_01]: The next player that you mentioned though, I think probably the most surprising, most shocking, most off the board.

[SPEAKER_01]: Pick for a number of reasons talent and situation.

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's get into that one, JJ.

[SPEAKER_00]: So pick after that.

[SPEAKER_00]: The A select Kyler Murray,

[SPEAKER_00]: Um, I would say that this one was a shocking one.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, we had, I had that area.

[SPEAKER_00]: I remember that and I remember us having conversations for us like the hardest player I have in my area to line up is color Murray because I would say he was a very split camp player for one, like you would start with that, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Which is even on a pure evaluation because he played football

[SPEAKER_00]: He'd had a pretty inconsequential college baseball career until that year, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Not if for average, showed athleticism showed tools, but he'd had a very strong, very limited spring, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: So you had, you had seen the tools and you had seen at least some production, but it was very, it was,

[SPEAKER_00]: we talk about track record and all that.

[SPEAKER_00]: This was a shortest of track records.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then you had this great unknown also, which is he was a very prominent football player, quarterback.

[SPEAKER_00]: And there was kind of generally an understanding that with the world that now existed, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: If this was 2005,

[SPEAKER_00]: If someone drafted Colour Murray, what they would almost or surely would have done, is they would have put together a package, they would have essentially bought out football if you're going to draft them.

[SPEAKER_00]: Right.

[SPEAKER_00]: You can't really do that as well now, because you are limited in what you can offer us by the bonus pool.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I imagine the college football players are also getting paid more money today than he would have been getting his story.

[SPEAKER_00]: I wrote that year was there is always this perception, oh, well, but you're gonna make more money in baseball the time.

[SPEAKER_00]: We don't tell it now, but the time that was generally a perception.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I'd done a piece a couple of years before that about like if you look at Jeff Somarge and Calvin Johnson and how Jeff Somarge was a college football wider receiver slash pitcher.

[SPEAKER_00]: Calvin Johnson had been a high school baseball

[SPEAKER_00]: They're both wide receivers.

[SPEAKER_00]: If just some archaic on in the NFL, even if he'd had Calvin Johnson's career, which he would have never have had.

[SPEAKER_00]: But he still made more money as kind of like a number of three slash four starting pitcher in pro-invacepal, the Calvin Johnson did is one of the a Hall of Fame caliber wide receiver.

[SPEAKER_00]: But there was a key distinction here and we wrote about this at this time, which was with color Murray, quarterbacks have a very, it's a very different structure.

[SPEAKER_00]: The A signed color Murray to a deal, knowing and agreeing that he would be allowed to go back and play the following football season, idea being, he's five foot nine, five foot ten.

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, if he has a decent year, he'd be a draft prospect of some sort, but he's not going to be that.

[SPEAKER_00]: And no, he ended up being the Heisman Trophy winner.

[SPEAKER_00]: And if it came very clear very quickly at that point, it's like, oh, look, look, if you looked at just from a purely financial perspective, he was going to make so much more money in football than he could in baseball.

[SPEAKER_00]: So.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I would say that this is one of those where you look at it, and I get to kick it back to you, but it's like, in hindsight, knowing what we knew then, not knowing what we know now, but knowing what we knew then, I just feel like that this is the kind of swing you really couldn't take.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I say that because with Carter Stewart, the braves,

[SPEAKER_00]: are kind of sitting there knowing we'll be okay, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: He disagrees with us about this bonus.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's not going to take less money.

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, we're fine.

[SPEAKER_00]: That means that we'll pick ninth overall next year, which is the end of the day, say like the leaders.

[SPEAKER_00]: He braves lost nothing in that.

[SPEAKER_00]: You don't get protected if you sign the player, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: The A sign, Calamari.

[SPEAKER_00]: Calamari, still technically, if you ever lost play baseball, he is an Oakland, I don't know, an A.

[SPEAKER_00]: And the thing about it is those is so you just basically, you lost a top 10 pick with no recourse, no recovery.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I just think that's one of those things where it's like we have not seen anything close to a Kyler Murray type situation with any kind of two sport player since then and I think that this is why because it was a cautionary tale but what are your memories of this?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah well I even without the benefit of hindsight I remember being kind of shocked by the pick.

[SPEAKER_01]: just purely given where we ranked him as a prospect.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you took out the football aspect entirely, I even think taking him inside the top 10 would have been surprising.

[SPEAKER_01]: Now, maybe if he doesn't play a football career, he signs in baseball, he proves me wrong, he proves me better than where we had him ranked at the time.

[SPEAKER_01]: I believe we had him ranked in the 70s.

[SPEAKER_01]: 70s?

[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, yeah.

[SPEAKER_01]: So we had him 77.

[SPEAKER_01]: So again, like inside the top 10, for this hot-the-board pick, every single other player who went front of him,

[SPEAKER_01]: kind of around the range we would expect him to go.

[SPEAKER_01]: He was the shocker to me.

[SPEAKER_01]: I pulled up our we're kind of day one analysis of this pick at the time and even then we were kind of surprised to see it even acknowledging like the football aspect and I think what you were talking about, the fact that he was a split camp player.

[SPEAKER_01]: purely for his talents and the skills on the baseball field for many scouts like we just did not have the sort of feedback from the scouting community at the time that would have made us feel comfortable saying yeah he's a no doubt first round type he was not we had a ranked in 70s so we had a ranked as a second or third round talent so purely on that I think the pick was surprising if you look back

[SPEAKER_01]: In terms of actually just getting a major leaker from this draft, the first round pretty successful here, I believe only Carter Stewart, who we just talked about for the Braves, the A's obviously didn't get a big leaker with their first round.

[SPEAKER_01]: The Nationals in Mason Dennerburg, they missed.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then the only other team who you can't say they didn't get a major leaker, and it's

[SPEAKER_01]: you're looking around, everyone at least got something from their first overall pick, and with the ASU, I mean, get a cool story, you get a football quarterback that I guess you sell the race too, but yeah, even then, I remember being surprised by it.

[SPEAKER_00]: So the one other at the top 10 I want to ask about is the Travis variety goes 10th overall.

[SPEAKER_00]: We had him ranked 9th.

[SPEAKER_00]: So the right of the rage we expected, I just remember the time, I was, okay, again, I got guys wrong in this.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not like, ooh, I'm so smart.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I just remember the time being like, I don't want to take, I'm not on, I know we'd had a track record of success.

[SPEAKER_00]: I know I can get a little too fixated on an arbitrary endpoint, which is the 300 batting average.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I don't want to take a out-filter with modest power from South Alabama, who hit 296 in his draft year.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like that to me was...

[SPEAKER_00]: What I would say, what I would say the theme about this is all of this is we were in an era where the college bats were still not nearly as powerful as they are now.

[SPEAKER_00]: And we didn't have the exit of all the glossy data that teams all have now and all that.

[SPEAKER_00]: But if you said on some of a lot of the top 15 hitter misses.

[SPEAKER_00]: And if you said over and over, you said, well, what happened?

[SPEAKER_00]: And again, color merge is a different category.

[SPEAKER_00]: But if you said, what happened, Nick Madrigal?

[SPEAKER_00]: What happened with Travis Wagner?

[SPEAKER_00]: What happened with Jordan Grosschance?

[SPEAKER_00]: What happened with Connor Scott?

[SPEAKER_00]: Over and over and over, I think what you would say is, it's funny, because we're going back the other way now.

[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of hit tool guys were taking at the top of this vast draft.

[SPEAKER_00]: But these are all hit or first with questions about their power.

[SPEAKER_00]: And

[SPEAKER_00]: In most cases, that lack of power, that lack of impact kind of ended up being for these guys at the top of the class.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, I do want to bring out Jordan Groceryans, who has kind of been bounced around, kind of a minor league, has been largely viewed resoul as a minor league orc player.

[SPEAKER_00]: Very interesting, Yuri had this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: In his hit at 30 career, minor league homers coming into this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: He hit 32 this year in the year of the home run in the minors.

[SPEAKER_00]: So maybe he's a plain,

[SPEAKER_01]: And I definitely would not have put Jordan Grotians into this, like, lacks power at the time, quite.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he was a high schooler.

[SPEAKER_01]: He showed impressive bass beat.

[SPEAKER_01]: He showed impressive power at the time.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think there was some pure hitting questions, probably, that would have been bigger for Grotians.

[SPEAKER_01]: And some of these other guys you're talking about.

[SPEAKER_01]: But he had definitely to stand out some of the letter impact players that you're talking about here.

[SPEAKER_01]: Who wants you guys?

[SPEAKER_01]: What else you want to talk about with these travelers?

[SPEAKER_01]: Any number of different areas we can go into.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, okay.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that the other thing that we have to get into that you've already talked about a little bit here, but I think we need to touch on a little bit more, is the prep pitchers, I think we can get this done pretty quickly, but when we say that the prep pitchers that this class kind of derailed it for future ones, one of the things that really stood out about this class about the prep pitchers is,

[SPEAKER_00]: It's the guys, it's like, I don't think that it's really that Ryan Weathers and Matthew Libertore, who are kind of the top, you know, can call in.

[SPEAKER_00]: Those were the top pictures who went.

[SPEAKER_00]: I would really think the ones who kind of cause much more of a cautionary tail going forward were the Mason denimbergs, and then when you get into the Ethan Hankens and all, and I would say that partly because

[SPEAKER_00]: This was one of those classes.

[SPEAKER_00]: And we saw this kind of a number of years in a row where you had these prep pictures who would get drafted and we have COVID coming up, which doesn't help for the development.

[SPEAKER_00]: But these pictures would get drafted and seemingly very quickly kind of disappear off the face of the professional Earth for a very long time.

[SPEAKER_00]: Where, and we've seen, it's not like there has never been a college pictures done this, but it really did seem to me

[SPEAKER_00]: the injury nexus that you often hear about of like one of the biggest challenges, one of the biggest concerns about drafting an 18 or 19 or 17 year old prep pitcher is right can they make it healthly through 19, 20, 21 whereas the college pitchers kind of have largely gotten through that.

[SPEAKER_00]: I feel like this was one of those classes that kind of

[SPEAKER_00]: Mason, Devon and Bird, Ethan Hankens.

[SPEAKER_00]: Ethan Hankens, I think Bayerley pit, those guys finished their minor league careers of less than 200 minor league innings.

[SPEAKER_00]: Much less major league innings.

[SPEAKER_00]: How much do you think that played a part in this?

[SPEAKER_01]: My takeaway is just that I think where those pictures were selected more than anything is there's an opportunity cost that you have and if you're picking in the top 15, if you just look at players who were taken, I have first round.

[SPEAKER_01]: So first round picks, I think this is including the comp round this year using baseball references database.

[SPEAKER_01]: So basically if you're a top 40 pick,

[SPEAKER_01]: If you filter those players based on baseball reference war, the 15 most productive players from this year's draft are all either college products or their high school hitters.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's not a single high school pitcher in this group unless you wanted to throw an askerus.

[SPEAKER_01]: and say JT again, but JT again was he went to college.

[SPEAKER_01]: He was drafted out of college and that kind of would probably reinforce the point you're making, which is you probably just feel more comfortable in taking these pictures.

[SPEAKER_01]: Once they come out of college, you have guys like Nico Horner, I'll just run down the only high school names actually.

[SPEAKER_01]: Top 15, beware.

[SPEAKER_01]: first round, based on how baseball references drawing that distinction.

[SPEAKER_01]: Bryce Turang is the best player of this grouping.

[SPEAKER_01]: Xavier Edwards is the second.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then the third high school player, again, is just JT again with Nashrik.

[SPEAKER_01]: Everyone else is college players.

[SPEAKER_01]: You got guys like Nico Horner at the top.

[SPEAKER_01]: Logan Gilbert, who we haven't talking about, like in hindsight, if you're looking at Logan Gilbert's profile, compared to all these high school players, he's a guy that probably wish we had ranked.

[SPEAKER_01]: A little bit higher because

[SPEAKER_01]: The stuff he showed and the performance he showed was just as impressive, and I think we've talked about this as well over the last few weeks on this podcast, but hopefully

[SPEAKER_01]: in our rankings today, JJ, a guy like Logan Gilbert, we would just start and have a lot more confidence in his profile than any of the top kind of high school pictures who we've compared him with.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I definitely know for a fact, like systemically looking back at this 2018 class, the high school pitching, this is the year where we, I don't know how soon after the fact, I know we've gotten feedback afterwards, but just because I go out and see all these high school

[SPEAKER_01]: this way.

[SPEAKER_01]: We've adjusted from the top of the board.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yes.

[SPEAKER_00]: And by way, I should know, it's a good one.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're looking.

[SPEAKER_00]: Looking up was 19 on our board.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I don't want to say he went.

[SPEAKER_00]: He went 14.

[SPEAKER_00]: We had a 19.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's kind of in that way.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's one where I would much rather have had him where we had like Brady singer for instance in hindsight, not even to say like where was he inselected.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think he went right around 14.

[SPEAKER_01]: He went.

[SPEAKER_00]: I just said he went 14 and we had a 19.

[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, got you, got you.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, yeah, but he kind of stands out to me, obviously.

[SPEAKER_00]: But we had singer four, he went 18.

[SPEAKER_00]: I would say that was the flip side of it, which is this was a guy who was a track record as a assessor, minor league college player of the year, dominated at Florida, had a great slider.

[SPEAKER_00]: There was some concerns about how well he and he's ended up being a very durable, and a very solid, big league starter

[SPEAKER_00]: But to wrap up the first round, a couple of other things I think that we want to get to, we're going to take one more break, and we're going to wrap up the first round right after this.

[SPEAKER_00]: So Carlos, looking at the other parts of the first round, the thing that stands out, you mentioned like there are guys that looking at how we had it ranked versus how it went.

[SPEAKER_00]: that I want to say like, you know, we had hits and misses or cells as, you know, as BA, like I would say that our hits were, like we had Brady singer four, he went 18.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think if you would, you know, if you were redoing this, he would go much higher, I would say.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then there were, I would say a lot of the teams that took big swings.

[SPEAKER_00]: Nico Horner is a big swing.

[SPEAKER_00]: We had him 42, he went 24, big swing, cubs were right.

[SPEAKER_00]: We, you know, we had him, I would think that now, hopefully we would rank him higher.

[SPEAKER_00]: I would also say, like we said, Colomer, we had 77, the age of 9.

[SPEAKER_00]: Jordan Adams, who I want to talk about a little bit when we get done with this, like supplement, he we had him 45th, he went 17th.

[SPEAKER_00]: Anthony Siggler went 42nd, 23rd, we had him 42nd.

[SPEAKER_00]: and then I would say, Seth Beer, we had 57th, he went 28th.

[SPEAKER_00]: Those are the ones I would say in the first round where it's like, there's a big discrepancy where we had them ranked versus where they went.

[SPEAKER_00]: I should show court court grossions, one other.

[SPEAKER_00]: We had him 39th, he went 12th.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, there's a structure to this, which is some guys if you want to take them, you're going to have to take them to spot where you can sign them, all that.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's always involved in this.

[SPEAKER_00]: But,

[SPEAKER_00]: Jordan Adams, again, Jordan Adams to me is the type of player who, if you were doing this again in 2026, it's hard for me to imagine that he would go as high as he did back then, because he was very much.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like if you say, well, why did Jordan Adams go 17th, I'll kick it over you with this NHSI?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, Jordan Adams had a tremendous NHSI showing we went into that event and he was definitely not ranked where we had.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't even know if he was a top 100 prospect coming into that event and then he was maybe the most impressive hit or certainly the most impressive athlete he was flying around the bases, making it to the contact.

[SPEAKER_01]: He just looked really exciting on the field and he had.

[SPEAKER_01]: Huge up arrow helium.

[SPEAKER_01]: I was trying to pull up exactly where he ranked in high school because I'm pretty sure it's told you I just I'm not here for football for football for football.

[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, I'm like thinking talking at the same time So he was also very talented football player.

[SPEAKER_01]: Why was he was a wide receiver Committed to North Carolina.

[SPEAKER_01]: I believe he was ranked ahead of Jamar Chase

[SPEAKER_01]: in the same fast.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's the nugget I was trying to find.

[SPEAKER_01]: So maybe you'll be able to find it.

[SPEAKER_01]: But there was this two-way element with Jordan Adams.

[SPEAKER_01]: And I remember hearing a lot about it.

[SPEAKER_01]: At the time, you still hear about it with two-way players.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's like, okay, he's showing all these tools.

[SPEAKER_01]: He hasn't even really focused on baseball.

[SPEAKER_00]: Number time while you're receiving the class, 14th of course.

[SPEAKER_01]: Who are the guys around him?

[SPEAKER_01]: Do you know that?

[SPEAKER_01]: He wasn't head into Mark Chase.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, which is crazy, so yeah, that event put him in the first round essentially like we had a Q&A with him, I remember talking to him at the time like coming out of that event, it was a very exciting player, but I guess your point here is we should be very hesitant about these late pop-up high school hitters, especially is that kind of what you wanted to emphasize.

[SPEAKER_00]: when you don't have a track record of hitting and you don't have as much, not like Jordan Adams like no one had ever seen him face quality competition ever, anything like that.

[SPEAKER_00]: But when you don't have nearly as much of a track record of that, your

[SPEAKER_00]: even if the tools are exceptional, your risk of that not working out is quite high.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, he went 17th.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's a big swing, you know, but it's also like this was also the last high school player the angels took in the first round, um,

[SPEAKER_01]: That Jordan Adams pick in 2018.

[SPEAKER_01]: After that, it was all college players up until this past draft where they took Jared Greenlingers.

[SPEAKER_01]: So this basically made them entirely flip strategies and go for, hey, we're getting quick to the major's college players.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it's funny to think of Jordan Adams is like the last player they took a shot on.

[SPEAKER_01]: I also think too, as I'm looking back at Jordan Adams report and kind of thinking through them again.

[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of the players who have gone higher than I would have taken them, I think, are these players who have these tremendous natural athleticism, either either quantifiable athleticism or just athleticism you can see on the field.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think a lot of times, maybe not a lot of times, but I think we can tend to

[SPEAKER_01]: overrate pure athleticism and underrate the baseball skill that you kind of need to have for that athleticism to translate.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like it's great to be a tremendous athlete, but I'd rather have a mediocre athlete who really can hit than a great athlete who who can't.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think sometimes

[SPEAKER_01]: especially now that we're getting our hands on more quantifiable data.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot more athletic testing like I am a little bit wary of the overathletes who may be might not be baseball players and I don't want to see Jordan Adams using a baseball player.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's a very good baseball player, but that's kind of my concern.

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, well then I think this is a perfect segue then say well then and then we have Seth Beer.

[SPEAKER_00]: Who was?

[SPEAKER_00]: Seth Beer was I would say as famous almost as a player.

[SPEAKER_00]: He was the freshman of the year, a couple

[SPEAKER_00]: He went 28th overall, we had him 57th, and I would say that he was the exact opposite of Jordan Adams.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like if you said, we just said Jordan Adams was a pop-up prospect with great tools, but concerns about lack of track record.

[SPEAKER_00]: And Seth Beer had this massively long track record going back to high school of hitting and had had a very productive career at Clemson.

[SPEAKER_00]: And we were getting, I remember answering SBA questions the year before that's like, was Seth Beerv gone one, one, a few to be available in the Straft class.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're like, no, he wouldn't have come close to it because he doesn't really have a position.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that was, that's kind of why he felt a 28th.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I would say, but Seth Beer is also instructive from a standpoint of, when you have a guy who, even with a great track record of hitting,

[SPEAKER_01]: They're going to have to be such a good hit or if you don't know where they're going to play right I think there are also there is a group of college players college hitters in particular where

[SPEAKER_01]: it's either a level of bat speed or a level of opposing pitch quality where you can be tremendously productive as a college hitter.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think of these as like the metal bat merchants is kind of how I think of this profile in my head.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like players who put up just gotty offensive totals in college,

[SPEAKER_01]: But don't have the same, maybe pro pedigree or hype that you would expect of that profile because of some limitations.

[SPEAKER_01]: Whether that's a bad speed question, maybe they're a strong hitter who can just kind of believe the ball out despite sub park contact getting jammed, hitting the ball towards the cap and college, just the offensive environment, the equipment you're using, it's more forgiving.

[SPEAKER_01]: you're not facing the same caliber of velocity, even though amateur players are throwing harder and harder, you're not facing the same caliber of secondaries that can be located.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that particular point about the secondaries is key.

[SPEAKER_01]: In each year there are groups of players.

[SPEAKER_01]: There are some I could mention in this 2020 six class that I'm currently still skeptical of because they put up just

[SPEAKER_01]: tremendously impressive college numbers, but there are under the hood reasons, whether it's athleticism, whether it's pure hitting ability, whether it's defensive profile questions that maybe could take away a lot of what they do well at the next level.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think Seth Beer probably checks a lot of those boxes.

[SPEAKER_01]: it's why you don't tend to see these one-dimensional players going high in the draft period.

[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, that one I feel at least better than somewhere these other players we had right now.

[SPEAKER_00]: One more to make you feel good.

[SPEAKER_00]: We had Shane Klanahan's seventh on our board.

[SPEAKER_00]: He went 31st overall and I would say if you did this over again, he would have gone much closer to the seventh overall.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, if there was a redrap, he was another interesting one.

[SPEAKER_00]: Come out, South Florida that year.

[SPEAKER_00]: you saw the stuff there wasn't necessarily I was consistency there were some injury concerns which I've come up in pro ball some extent but what do you remember about Shane McLean?

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah well what I remember post amateur career as I think Josh Norse saw him maybe five times and I think he saw a couple of his amateur albums and he was just terrible every time Josh saw him so Josh was like his his bug-a-boo um

[SPEAKER_01]: But thinking about McClanahan and where he was picked, it was surprising to me when I saw Matthew Libertor, slide to 16, the raised garden there.

[SPEAKER_01]: They grabbed Shane McClanahan at 31.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think those two and then Brady Singer were the most surprising pitching slides.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I remember seeing Shane McClanahan good, the electricity that he showed from the left side was a lot of fun.

[SPEAKER_01]: But even I had questions about like, okay, is he going to be able to start?

[SPEAKER_01]: is he going to be consistent enough does he have the sort of delivery that you need to start are there questions about oh like the the quality of the competition he was facing at South Florida like are we getting a little bit too excited about the numbers he's putting up at that level of composition but even still i mean we like to quite a bit i think how he's been able to pan out is exciting um i think i'm maybe more bullish on players like this because some of my personal biggest misses are guys like chase burns

[SPEAKER_01]: Jacob Missierowski, where you're just kind of skeptical, or where I was skeptical about whether or not they could start, and I think for me, the takeaway is, if you really have elite peer stuff, you need to give these guys every opportunity to both succeed and to see if they can start.

[SPEAKER_01]: Because there are some teams who can just help them figure it out, and so I'm guys the stuff like, you don't need to have elite command, you don't need to have elite pitchability and feel if you can just put your elite peer stuff in the zone and let hit her struggle.

[SPEAKER_00]: Nothing gets Ryan Rawls and would give me this profile of a Ryan Rawls since profile a thousand times out of thousands.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know how much I love stuff.

[SPEAKER_00]: And but what I would also say with this is, I do think there's another component of this, which is impossible to ever know.

[SPEAKER_00]: I look at Bryce Terrain with the Brewers, and I look at Shay McClain at hand with the raise.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I do feel like that those are both examples of guys who are drafted by organizations whose strengths, yes, what they needed, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, if St. McClellan was in an organization that was not good at developing, improved control,

[SPEAKER_00]: Right.

[SPEAKER_00]: He would have maybe been a very different story.

[SPEAKER_00]: If Bryce Terang was in an organization that didn't really help hit or develop and, you know, good weight program, things like that, I think that's a very different story.

[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, to to that extent,

[SPEAKER_00]: to bring it back to Jordanians for a minute.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if the angels were the best organization at that time to be like, hey, we've got this really toolsy, and they liked a lot of these guys this time this way, but they never wanted to success in developing the, hey, this guy may take a little bit more time, but the tools are so loud that it may all come together, guys.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, they weren't, I think it's a little bit of a little organization's better at that.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's a great point, and then one of the other big successes in this first round is Logan Govert.

[SPEAKER_01]: He was drafted to the Mariners.

[SPEAKER_01]: They've been one of the better pitching development teams in baseball.

[SPEAKER_01]: So it is, I think I'm glad you brought up this point.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's worth underlining.

[SPEAKER_01]: It is hard even to do these hindsight sort of analyzing these draft.

[SPEAKER_01]: What can we really learn?

[SPEAKER_01]: Like so much of this is also tied into player development.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's not just you made the right pick.

[SPEAKER_01]: It could be you made the right pick, and you also did a lot of things really well.

[SPEAKER_01]: with your coaching and sort of the cues you're giving these players or the player development.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like path you were giving these guys, what do we see we're making?

[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's super important to highlight.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know if we mentioned it last week, but untangling what is a good or bad pick and what is good or bad development is always super tricky and you definitely have to give the organization's PD Group some credit for the successes here as well.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I want to kick this back to you as we kind of wrap this up going and looking at beyond the first and set, you know, the first and supplement of first rounds.

[SPEAKER_00]: What are some of the things that really stood out to you beyond that?

[SPEAKER_01]: Well, let's just take a look at the top five players in this draft.

[SPEAKER_01]: So these are players who signed.

[SPEAKER_01]: We're not including the guys in the 30s who didn't sign and came out of college later.

[SPEAKER_01]: And we're successful, but just looking at players to sign.

[SPEAKER_01]: The biggest, what if or maybe the most impressive, I'd say has to be the most impressive pick of this entire draft.

[SPEAKER_01]: The Tigers in the ninth round, 250 fifth overall pick.

[SPEAKER_01]: Tarrick Scooble.

[SPEAKER_01]: Pretty decent find in here for the Tigers in the ninth round.

[SPEAKER_01]: After that pick, we mentioned them on last week's episode.

[SPEAKER_01]: The Houston Astros have another impressive pick.

[SPEAKER_01]: This one counts as a day two pick.

[SPEAKER_01]: Third round pick, then day two, day one today.

[SPEAKER_01]: But back then, it was a day two pick.

[SPEAKER_01]: Jeremy Payna with the hundred and second pick.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think this is a profile.

[SPEAKER_01]: We probably all just kind of like a little bit more today, just because of the secret we've seen.

[SPEAKER_00]: Those real questions about power, and then before long, it's like, oh, this is a different, this is a different light layer than he was in college.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, yeah, at the time it was defense first, contact oriented real power questions.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, maybe a more extreme example of that is what the Guardians, then the Indians did in the fifth round with Stephen Kwan.

[SPEAKER_01]: So he was drafted out of Oregon State.

[SPEAKER_01]: You would take Stephen Kwan over his teammate at the time that would have seemed insane to say, taking Stephen Kwan over Nick Madrigal, but he's certainly been the much better big league player.

[SPEAKER_01]: So he was a fifth round pick, 163 overall and then the last player I just want to highlight here, Cal Raleigh, another Mariners savvy pick.

[SPEAKER_01]: He was a third rounder, 90th overall.

[SPEAKER_01]: Those are your top five players.

[SPEAKER_01]: Logan Gilbert, Cal Raleigh, pretty good draft right there, like you would probably expect the Mariners to rank higher than where they do in terms of just total b-war from this class, do you have any thoughts on where they might stack up and who are top five to the top three, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: They are fourth actually so they they check in right behind let me just make sure this is sort of currently yep they're fourth they're behind the brewers who are first the Indians second the Tigers third then the Mariners then the Cardinals I guess we should also highlight the Cardinals 11th round pick I believe it is oh excuse me 7th round who do the Cardinals take in the 7th round this year Brendan Donovan that's their kind of end in the last new bar in the eighth yep

[SPEAKER_00]: And beyond that, Kyle Lee, he, Evan Cisk in the 16th and 17th, that's, this was a, this was a draft where the third through 10th round had some really big hits.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, what it didn't have, unlike the last draft we talked about in 2017, you get about the 11th round on and I'm not saying there are no hits, but there is not a whole lot of players real like, oh, that guy hit it up being a really impact.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's like overall this draft definitely like the totality of it is more impressive Than the 2017 draft just looking at like total war value.

[SPEAKER_01]: We've seen from the teams at the top.

[SPEAKER_01]: It has been more impressive But you're right.

[SPEAKER_01]: There are not the the best like 10 plus Round pick might be Marlins 17th around who would that have been?

[SPEAKER_01]: Let me pull this up really quickly

[SPEAKER_01]: And the other thing I remember about this class that maybe is worth mentioning, and there's 17th round of his Alex Vesia, so that was a pretty good pick from the Marlins.

[SPEAKER_01]: The other thing that I wanted to mention for this class is, this was the 2017 18-year US team that actually has a ton of productive major leagueers who were on that final roster, who were on the Trials team, and also maybe as a tease,

[SPEAKER_01]: It could have been even more impressive, but Bobby Wachunier injured at the time the final roster set.

[SPEAKER_01]: We could have seen a Bobby Wachunier bright terrain middle in field in those two players right now.

[SPEAKER_00]: Top five in all of baseball and war for this.

[SPEAKER_00]: I will never forget, I can tell you which field it was where I'm watching.

[SPEAKER_00]: It was one of the backfields at USA Baseball, the one you walked straight out and it's on the left, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: And you watch it.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's like two.

[SPEAKER_00]: There are those two guys on the same field and by the way,

[SPEAKER_00]: It's the rising junior who's the one who really, like if you looked at them at that time and you said one of these I was wondering was the rising junior Yeah, one of these is the top one of the top prospects in this year's class one is the next year's you would never have been like Oh, Bobby what's the next year you would have been like that physical monster there is the this year, right?

[SPEAKER_01]: Let's do a, before we wrap, JJ, I, I remember thinking of this player when we came into the conversation, I haven't brought them up, but do you have a player in this list or in this draft that you really liked and didn't pan out, one of mine is obviously amazing.

[SPEAKER_01]: And Denver, who we mentioned, but I also just want to highlight Nander to say this.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, sure.

[SPEAKER_00]: You did a lot of the academy.

[SPEAKER_01]: in Florida.

[SPEAKER_01]: I thought he was going to be just a monster.

[SPEAKER_01]: He showed great defensive instincts.

[SPEAKER_01]: He was a switch hitter with power.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think I remember seeing him at the Florida Diamond Club event and he was just

[SPEAKER_01]: monstrous there and he didn't sign out of high school.

[SPEAKER_01]: He went to college.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's really just never was as good as I thought he would be.

[SPEAKER_01]: So he's definitely another player that that I missed on and I thought an interview to say this was going to be a tremendously talented big leaker.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's probably the one.

[SPEAKER_01]: I also really like Anthony Seagler at the time.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, are there any other guys I'll give you two.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'll go I'll go both ways, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: So Joe Gray Which was big power out of this is speed yeah speed.

[SPEAKER_00]: I thought he would be you know I knew there was risk there, but I thought that it was all gonna come together and it didn't really and then he was playing with Savannah Bananas recently.

[SPEAKER_01]: He might be currently on toward them if I remember correctly.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're just kind of cool and the flip side that I got wrong is Cody Clemens

[SPEAKER_00]: Like, I, the defensive, can sort of get a great year at Texas that year, but I thought it's probably a first basement at the end of the day, and he's going to hit enough to be a first basement.

[SPEAKER_00]: And he's kind of a first basement the end of the day, but he's kept his managed to keep himself semi-playable at second base as well.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that's kind of allowed him to carve out, I mean, again, I don't want to make it sound like, like, if you're redrafting this, like,

[SPEAKER_00]: This year is his best year, and it's really his first significant year.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's got 3.8 career war, 2.7 of her.

[SPEAKER_00]: This year is a 30 year old.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't want to make a sound like, oh, you know, but I will absolutely own that I was, I had him, you know, like I was again, Texas was my area, and I did not have him as highest.

[SPEAKER_00]: He went as definitely not as high as he is in it up producing.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I really just thought at the time, I just thought, even as good as his year was,

[SPEAKER_00]: It's going to be a first basement in the back stock to play enough for play first place.

[SPEAKER_01]: Another one that I have a player of that category who's been better than I expected it to be.

[SPEAKER_01]: Ryan Jeffers, twin second rounder, we ranked him at the back of the 395 overall.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's one of the first sort of examples that I have kind of lived through of college catcher who was kind of written off defensively, who turned out to be much, like people might not remember this now, think of Ryan Jeffers and how,

[SPEAKER_01]: Frequently, he's been near the top of like framing metrics in the big leagues, but many people didn't know if he would be able to catch a period at the next level.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so I've been a lot more just willing to think about potential defensive improvements with catchers, both in high school and in college because of players like Ryan Chaffer.

[SPEAKER_01]: So that's another one.

[SPEAKER_00]: To the other thing that I will share is I found in our old files here.

[SPEAKER_00]: I had 200 junior college names to keep track of that year.

[SPEAKER_00]: Because I was doing like we would do the small cod did the small colleges stuff for us for the college preview and so I was trying to keep track of that and as I scan through these names If you say why we do less junior college work now for the draft.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's fine.

[SPEAKER_00]: These names tell me why we do less because I have 200 names here And there are a lot of guys that I recognize because of that, but if you said Who's the most prominent big leager on this list out of that group?

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if there's an actual answer.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm scanning it now, I can't, nothing none of them pop out to me.

[SPEAKER_01]: So.

[SPEAKER_01]: There's a trainer on the list, but not the trainer you're in.

[SPEAKER_00]: No, it's a different one.

[SPEAKER_00]: A different trainer.

[SPEAKER_00]: Darius finds, you know, Mitch Waters, you know, Walter's like, yeah, Hunter Wolf was a interesting dude out of, you know, like a short stop out of Walter's state.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like I was like that.

[SPEAKER_00]: But yeah.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's one of the things where I'm like, I started kind of ramping down how like intensely I would try to hit the juke of this, because I kind of realized like, I think this was draft like, they're just weren't many juke of guys take it

[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe I'm spitting too much time on that, but that is our look at the 2018 MLB draft as this draft look back we're doing in this series.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think you can guess what the next one will be.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to move on to 2019 one of the best drafts in a very long time.

[SPEAKER_00]: We'll do that in the next baseball America draft podcast for Carlos.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm JJ.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's a long everybody.