00:00:01
Speaker 1: Welcome back to the Baseball America College Baseball Podcast. As always, I'm Jacob Rudner, and this week we are joined by Baseball America's draft extraordinaire, Carlos Collazo. Carlos, it's been a while since we've had you on the show, and you get to kick off our new change that we're excited to announce. Starting now, we are back to weekly with the College Pod in the offseason. We've been publishing every two weeks, but you get to usher in the new era due to the demand of our lovely listeners we are a weekly pod once again.

00:00:32
Speaker 2: Yeah well we'll see if that demand continues after they hear me on the podcast with you maybe they just want to hear more of you jacob but uh it probably won't be me every single week with jacob but i am very happy to to be here chatting with you.

00:00:46
Speaker 1: It is a pleasure to have you and obviously with your presence comes some draft talk and it's early i know that people listening to this there will be some groans and eye rolls when you hear draft in September.

00:00:58
Speaker 3: But it does matter, and we have evidence of that.

00:01:01
Speaker 1: The fall is getting going across colleges around the country. I would say that most are doing workouts in some form. Are they full-blown fall practices everywhere yet? No, but it's getting to that point where it's pretty close. And so the draft picture, I don't want to say it comes into focus, because it really doesn't at this point still. but I think that we can start to think about a little bit some of the themes and things and improvements or lack thereof for the names that we know we need to follow. And conversely, I think this is kind of our first opportunity to make some discoveries in that, you know, middle to bottom of the board category guys that we're going to want to keep a closer eye on in the spring. And it brings me to this just to kind of get us going here. Why Carlos is the fall important from a scouting perspective and Where does the value come from in a time of year where you aren't competing and it is so much more about instruction than it is perhaps competition?

00:02:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think for at least for the draft, like you don't have to be focused on the draft year round, but at Baseball America, we obviously are. And any sort of additional information we can get about what players are working on, maybe what they're changing from an arsenal perspective, maybe how tools or athleticism or positional change is impacting a position player. All that is very useful, and I think it can be a challenge to follow the fall in the same way that you can follow the spring, obviously. They're just games that everyone can watch. You've got access to a lot of data. Everything is very official. There are box scores. It doesn't mean that everything happening in the fall carries any less weight. And I think in particular what I've found useful, I'm curious what you've found most useful in the past few years of covering college baseball and the draft for us, Jacob, is just The players that scouts are getting excited about, often there are players that we didn't really have top of mind who just start to make a lot of noise because they look great in the fall. I remember Paul Skeens when he transferred to LSU, hearing about how he looked as a pitcher and a hitter at the time. We could have read into that and expected big things from him his draft year, which was obviously excellent. There were a number of really interesting nuggets that you stumbled upon in your reporting last fall for the 2026 draft class. So if you're really locked into the draft, you're going to get hints and rumblings about maybe what's to come during the draft season and being as on top of that as we possibly can, I think is useful. Like you mentioned, I don't know that it's super important. Like, Oh, this fall performer this, this player had the best performance in a small sample. Like the actual results in performance is less interesting to me, but like, on an input level, what is maybe changing or heading in the right direction, strength, power, speed, pitch change, an approach change for pitchers, command changes, all of that is super useful. And I think as much as we're able to bake that in effectively heading into the preseason will help us kind of get ourselves ready for the draft year and maybe get players positioned more appropriately. I know both you and I are really itching to get our draft board updated, and that is coming in the near future. So fall feedback will be crucial for that.

00:04:10
Speaker 1: This might be a waiting into gross oversimplification territory, but I kind of look at the fall as our first opportunity to do a side by side. Like I love to watch pictures, for example, one clip from last year in the spring. And then another one, once we get into the fall a little bit of some fall work. And I like to ask myself like, what's different, really simple question. Like what is visibly different here is the arm slot different. Like we can go back to last year and talk about an example. Cause I think it's, you know, instructive and useful. Joey Volchko, for example, goes from Stanford where we had always kind of talked about him in the light of like really promising pitcher, potential breakout, could be the top arm in the class, could have the top stuff in the class, but.

00:04:53
Speaker 3: Never really materialized.

00:04:54
Speaker 1: And then he transfers to Georgia and the question immediately becomes like, is this going to be a guy who finally figures it out? And if he does, how high does he soar? Well, one of the things that we need to see change first, he probably needs to refine the arsenal a little bit. There are changes that are low hanging that can be made. There were conversations and it ended up happening about maybe dropping his arm slot down even further than where it was to really maximize the arsenal that he has. And then you get, you know, a week, two weeks, three weeks into the fall and you watch the video and you can see these things starting to happen. The shape of the breaking ball changed pretty dramatically throughout the fall for him. The arm slot dropped by about four inches, which is a really noticeable, that's.

00:05:32
Speaker 3: Like not, that's hard.

00:05:33
Speaker 1: That's easy to see, you know, even with the naked eye, I think that's a huge change. Jackson Flora, another really good example. You go out to UCSB like we did last year, and this guy's throwing a changeup that doesn't look like the changeup that he had the year before that or the year before that.

00:05:47
Speaker 3: The fastball's a little different because he adjusts the grip.

00:05:50
Speaker 1: The curveball that he added that was kind of this tweener pitch between his sweeper and his slider emerges last year and ends up being an interesting kind of change of pace offering. So these are the things that I think pop up and are easier to see where.

00:06:04
Speaker 3: I think it becomes... a little bit more difficult.

00:06:07
Speaker 1: Not that it's less instructive or valuable, but I think batters are a little tougher to gauge in the fall for a couple reasons.

00:06:15
Speaker 3: One, I think that pitchers win early.

00:06:17
Speaker 1: So like if you're a fan and you're going to go out and sit at your favorite school's stadium and take in some fall games, which I encourage you to do because if you're listening to this podcast, chances are that's probably intriguing to you. But if you're out there and you see a bat that you were expecting to be really good look terrible for the first couple of weeks, it's kind of to make a football comparison like how defense wins early in fall camp. Because you don't need to necessarily learn the plays. You don't necessarily need to be able to know all of the moving parts.

00:06:46
Speaker 3: And so teams, defenses.

00:06:48
Speaker 1: pitchers are able to kind of go out there and throw a little bit while batters are still getting reacclimated to competition. And so I think that's something you have to be careful of, but there are also really valuable changes to observe in the fall. The example that stands out to me the most right now, and this is a recency bias thing, but Daniel Jackson here, I think showed the first real signs of this could be a future first round pick in the fall. He hit two 40 something in his first season at Georgia in 2025 and comes back, the swing is a little bit more on plane. He's not attacking spin outside the zone the same way that he used to. And then the wheels kind of start to turn in your head where it's like, this is a guy to keep an eye on. What are the things for you that you're watching closely when it comes to the bats?

00:07:33
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think how you kind of laid out why we can react to pitching a little bit earlier is super intuitive. It's interesting to me that football is almost a counter example, whereas with baseball, if you're controlling the ball, you kind of lead it and then the defense maybe is a quicker adjustment. I think that's just kind of an interesting, comparison, but for me hitters, I think physicality as well as one that's interesting. And maybe depending on the program and depending on what a hitter did over the summer, this will even be more obvious from like a spring to spring. Like if you still haven't gotten into your full winter workouts and you haven't really started doing as much, uh, training in the gym, whatever you might be working on from a physicality standpoint, that might not always be obvious in the fall. Um, but sometimes it is. And I think whether it is a big player slimming down and getting in better shape, or maybe a young player just getting into a, uh, an actual nutrition routine and workout regimen. And you're seeing some like layered on strength, how that can impact a tool set overall. I think oftentimes in college as well, like defensive positioning is interesting to me, like how a player moving to a new position just straight up will change their profile. whether it's because players now have opportunities at new positions because players have graduated. Obviously, the rosters in college baseball are always in flux now. So that is maybe the easiest one to see is like, hey, is a player playing a position I didn't expect? And if so, do they actually look like they can stick there? That really is going to change the profile for me. In terms of results and ABs, yeah, in the fall, I think it can be challenging to even get enough of a sample size to feel confident. But if there are any obvious mechanical tweaks, like you were talking about with Daniel Jackson swing, feeling more confident, um, that a swing was going to be able to find the barrel more because of specific mechanical reasons or a swing path tweak that you can point to and feel confident in is different and new. Um, I think sometimes where both on a pitching and a hitting side where you can maybe get a little bit lost in the weeds and, and read into everything that's happening in college is like the hope is overflowing in fall baseball. Everyone is excited about what's coming. in the next year, all of the coaching staffs are going to be really excited about what their players are working on. Um, and so I don't necessarily know, like everyone is obviously going to be focused on something. Um, and so, uh, for hitting, especially, I think like when the results actually come, you need to just be a little bit more patient, but for me, physicality, strength, power, positional changes, mechanical tweaks, those are what I'm looking at for hitters in the fall. And just from scouts, like, Hey, who's looked good to you? Who are you excited by?

00:10:00
Speaker 1: This may cut both ways, but I do wonder how this offseason, this fall will be different from falls of past just because of the limit on games that are being played and how that's changed. If you're new to this previously, teams can play two games in the fall against outside competition. Now they can play four. which most teams, almost every team that I know of is taking advantage of, whether that's by playing local JUCOs, whether that's by playing other D1s. And so I wonder if this fall will be a little bit more, quote unquote, real, just because there will be more lights on opportunities where there is some competition for you to be able to go and sit down and actually make an evaluation of a player. Not to say that it counts for anything. I mean, it's just not the right part of the calendar to be making judgments on players but i do wonder and i'm curious for your opinion before we move on if playing more games even if more even if marginally changes your.

00:10:55
Speaker 2: View right yeah i'll be curious to see how players coaches scouts kind of react to that if they feel like it's a significant difference or maybe just a few more like actual live reps i i almost think that like in in some ways this is more related to maybe the high school circuit but i think in In the States, we sometimes play too many games, and I think it is nice to have a period in the offseason where you can really focus on the intent and the practice and what you're working on and process and be less focused on results. But obviously, I think from a hitting perspective, as many ABs as you can get, as many real quality reps you can get, that's beneficial. So I'm kind of open to hearing about how that works. I can't say I would expect it to change the fall too much in any way, any direction really to additional games. Doesn't seem like it's a dramatic shift, but I am curious, like, how are you viewing fall ball to me from like a pro comparison? It almost is like a little bridge league ish. Like it can be harder to follow fall ball than the spring. I'm curious, like how you view it from your perspective, if you feel like the colleges have done a better job kind of showcasing what's happening in the fall. If you're a fan, just trying to follow your team or college baseball, generally, do you have any tips for that?

00:12:08
Speaker 1: Well, I think college coaches, first of all, are learning yearly how better to maximize the fall. And we're seeing the results of that annually, whether that's by moving up the intensity and getting guys into game action a little bit sooner, whether that's playing more games, which has been a coach-led push for the last several years. All of these things are targeted improvements to the fall schedule, to player development. And to your point, I think the Bridge League comparison is apt.

00:12:35
Speaker 3: It is an opportunity.

00:12:36
Speaker 1: Especially in the transfer portal era for coaches to be able to go out there and kind of see what you got and then start to make the changes that you need to be able to make and kind of doctor things how you see fit. This is a great opportunity to do that. And to the point about the games, is that more valuable than the previous system from a scouting standpoint?

00:12:53
Speaker 3: Maybe, maybe not.

00:12:55
Speaker 1: But where I think it is an obvious win is that I think that teams will have better opportunities to foster improvement and to actually sit a guy down at the end of the fall and say, these are the things over the next two and a half months before the season begins that we need to work on because it looked this way in a practice, but then we went out and we played a game against fill in the blank team. And this is how it looked when the lights were on.

00:13:19
Speaker 3: And so these are the things that we need to focus on.

00:13:21
Speaker 1: So I think that from a development standpoint, the fall has taken a pretty sizable step in the right direction, what that actually impacts scouting wise value wise in that arena and I think remains to be seen as you kind of laid out, but we will, we'll see. We're going to take a quick break. And then after we come back, Carlos and I are going to get into some of the top players in this year's class and what they.

00:13:43
Speaker 3: Have to do in the fall. Alrighty.

00:13:47
Speaker 1: If you are locked in, welcome back to the baseball America college baseball podcast. I'm Jacob Rudner joined this week by our draft expert, Carlos Collazo and Carlos, just as you and I did last year, It is time to take a look at some of the top names in this year's class. This year, I think, is a little bit more, I don't want to use the word exciting because that diminishes a class of old and that's not necessary, but I do think that the race at the top of this year's class is a little bit more robust than it was this time last year. When we recorded this exact podcast almost a year ago to the day, our conversation was rightfully dominated by future first overall pick rock chelowski this year it feels like there are five six maybe seven guys in september so this will evolve who are in that one one territory tier one conversation i want to focus on the college guys in that group and we're going to start with my favorite pitcher in the class tomas valencius from mississippi state left-handed pitcher unique power sinker baller look uh this is a big off season i think that if this was six months ago, we're having a conversation about what does the race look like early on between the Linkus and Dax Whitney. Now we're sitting, you're having a conversation about what does the Linkus need to do to continue to solidify a spot where he doesn't have that same competition with Whitney out.

00:15:12
Speaker 2: Yeah. And the fall for him is interesting because I really feel like there's not an obvious hole in his game that I can point to. I mean, like last year we had Basically, any of the college pitchers in our top tier, Jackson Flora, Liam Peterson, Cameron Fluky, I feel like there was something in their game that you could point to and say, hey, you wanted to see either more in this area or this was a weakness you could address. With Valenka, I really feel like for him, it's about staying healthy and continuing to be the same pitcher he's been for the last two years because he throws hard. He throws a lot of strikes. He has a clear wipeout secondary. He has a third pitch in the changeup that I think is a potential above average or better offering. Maybe you could say, hey, you've got three quality pitches. Let's see a fourth. But I almost feel like that's asking for so much. You don't have to have four pitches if your first three are this good. I mean, he's performed as a starter for multiple years against high-quality competition and multiple conferences. I guess for me, Jacob, I'm curious if there is some clear area where you're looking to see him improve or address, or do you agree with me? It's mostly like, hey, stay healthy and just continue to be who you've been.

00:16:19
Speaker 1: Yeah, to me, it's kind of just continue to do your thing. If you're going to get real in the weeds and nitpicky on this one, which there's nothing wrong with either of those things at Baseball America.

00:16:30
Speaker 2: And if you're at the top of the board, we're getting this nitpicky. That's a good thing. If we're getting nitpicky with you, that means we have you ranked really highly. So don't take it too personally.

00:16:37
Speaker 1: Yeah, there isn't much that I'm going to be able to point to on a left-hander who's sitting 94 to 96 and touching 99 with a power sinker that is proven to be really good. Most of his pitches are hovering around that 60 to 67-ish percent strike rate, which is really where you want to live as a bat missing type. Again, if I'm going to be real nitpicky, would I love to see him miss a couple more bats with his fastball? Maybe at that velocity band and just with the weird release traits, I think a 14% roughly miss rate on your fastball is not necessarily the thing that will stop somebody in their tracks and make you go, that's obviously the guy that needs to come off the board first. on the mound but you look at the rest of the arsenal and it's like are you really allowed to be that nitpicky like the fastball plays great as a true power sinker guys are not making good contact against it it's a great like pound the ball into the dirt type pitch and then you have this slider in the mid to high 80s low 90s that's annihilating hitters that about you know you're you're sniffing a 50% miss rate the changeup is sniffing a 50% miss rate when the secondaries are that good and I think also the handedness here matters a ton I don't know that there's a lot to do so yeah stay healthy continue to be in the zone that can always get better like there's no such thing as a perfect strike thrower so just continuing to see the strikes and location advance and And then on the real nitpicky side, like let's see that fastball blow past a couple more bats. But even if it doesn't, not something that would dissuade me is another way to put that.

00:18:10
Speaker 3: I agree.

00:18:12
Speaker 2: And I think really us struggling to find obvious critiques or significant critiques in the profile is a lot of the reason why he ranks where he does and why I think he's one of the favorites in the college side to be the first college player, maybe the first overall player selected. I think after Valenka, it really is where it starts to get interesting and more muddled. And I think you can make stronger cases and have much more obvious, hey, these are red flags, or maybe not red flags even, but concerns or areas of weakness to address.

00:18:40
Speaker 1: And we'll have to get into those a little bit here in a second, because we are going to talk about Dax Whitney and the topic here are fall to-dos, and there's not much to do for somebody who's coming off Tommy John surgery. But to your point, that is part of the murkiness behind, you know, got track record, who's got crazy stuff, who doesn't really have a challenger. And then behind it, it's guys with problems, be them injuries or control or the stuff itself. And so, yes, it is not so clear cut. We will talk about that more in a second. Right now, I want to talk about who I believe to be the top bat in the class. This is also a topic of much debate. College class, I should also clarify when I say the class class. that's Brendan Lawson at Florida where he will play Carlos I think is a little bit of a question last year it was shortstop the early indication is that he will be a shortstop again the general widespread belief however when you talk to scouts is not that he is a shortstop because there are a number of problems for him at the position some believe third base I've heard a number of people say second base and then first base has kind of been the long time prevailing position destination for Brendan Lawson through it all though an unbelievable bat last year produced a 97 mile per hour average EV over 110 miles per hour in the 90th percentile which is outrageous he's making contact above 80% of the time the zone contact is outstanding at basically 88%. It was at 90% until he had a tough stretch towards the middle of the year that kind of tamped his stats down a little bit. But by and large, this is a very advanced hitter who may be a little bit positionless, but I'm not sure teams are going to care based on the range that he's being discussed and the offensive contribution that he potentially brings.

00:20:22
Speaker 2: Yeah, I feel like Brendan Lawson's offensive ability is just impeccable. Like you said, his combination of power, really near top of the scale college power that we've seen in the last few years with the sort of contact skill and swing decisions he's able to make, just make him a super exciting, well-rounded hitter that you could feel confident at the top of the lineup, in the middle of the lineup, as a run producer, someone who can really carry an offense. And I think what maybe separates him from some of the other hitters that we're going to compare him to, I think from a physicality standpoint, he looks the part. He looks like a big league slugger. There's no sort of strength concerns or durability concerns from a body perspective that Brendan Lawson might have. And then he's also done it in the sec for multiple years. And I know at this range, people are going to get very nitpicky about the competition. There's no obvious like swing and miss questions against specific pitch types. He hasn't really struggled with velocity. So offensively, this is what you want to see at the top of the class. And I do think that that defensive component is probably his biggest to do like, Hey, can you improve as a defender? Um, can you move a little bit better in the field? And if so, what is that going to allow you to, where's that going to allow you to play at the next level? Because kind of like, like you said, I think shortstop is unlikely, but if Brennan Lawson comes out next year, looking like he could be a solid third baseman, um, That's also significantly less risky from a draft perspective than if you feel like he's definitely going to be a first baseman. There's just so much more value that he can create as a player by playing that position. That offensive profile looks a lot more exciting if he can stick on the left side of the infield. So even if he's not going to go out and prove that he can play shortstop, just adding more confidence to your defensive ability overall is clearly the area that Brendan Lawson needs to address from my seat and how I'm seeing things. And it seems like most of the scouts... would probably agree with that. I don't think he's really had any questions offensively at this stage.

00:22:17
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would say that that's a pretty consensus opinion. The one thing that I think is worth discussion offensively, and to be clear again, we're talking about the top six college guys in the class. These are granular micro-adjustments of things that you want to be looking for, and this is not a knock on this player, but again, when you're trying to create separation in this range, this is what you're looking at. I wonder, Carlos, if there is a level of aggression at the plate that needs to still be seen, something that can still be brought out when it comes to Lawson's swing.

00:22:51
Speaker 3: Decisions and approach.

00:22:52
Speaker 1: Again, he is elite when it comes to making contact, when it comes to the quality of the contact that is made when he swings the bat. But just objectively speaking, this is not a player who swings the bat a whole bunch. He kind of leaves something to be desired there. from the pitches that he chooses to swing at standpoint. It's a 32% overall swing rate, which is very low.

00:23:13
Speaker 3: It's passive.

00:23:14
Speaker 1: And if you look at the swing rates on the money pitches, zone swing rate is just a tick above 50%. Heart swing rate does not even get to 60% on the season. Those are areas for a power hitter, especially somebody who may need to move to first base where all of your value is going to come from the stick. You're going to want to be a little bit more aggressive. And granted, it's important to note here, This is not to say that he needs to start swinging out of his shoes and becoming some sort of undisciplined power hitting type. This is more to say that this profile will probably need a little bit more aggressiveness at the plate in order to become kind of the complete package. It's great what it is right now. To me, offensively, if you're going to nitpick, that's the area that I would be keeping an eye on this fall.

00:24:01
Speaker 2: Yeah, I could see that being a nitpick similar to AJ Gracia a year ago, who's always quite passive. And again, sometimes the swing decisions questions and the passivity question, it can feel a little bit like ultra nitpicky when players are as productive as Brendan Lawson has been. And I also think like a lot of his swing decisions might have to do with like the lineup that he's hitting inside of. And so I'll be curious what this Florida lineup looks like surrounding him. But yeah, he definitely falls closer to the passivity side of the equation than some of the other hitters in this class. And maybe some of the guys we'll talk about on this podcast.

00:24:34
Speaker 3: Right.

00:24:34
Speaker 1: And even to that point, I think it's important to say that one of the things that you can watch for in the fall, if you're a fan and you're going to sit there and you're trying to figure out, is Brendan Lawson getting better? Part of that, as Carlos just said, has nothing to do with him. It's the guys around him. What are the hitters who are going to hit around Lawson look like this year? Because that will in part determine what kind of pitches he's getting to hit, how often he's going to swing the bat and the opportunities that he's going to have to be aggressive. So If you're trying to forecast what Lawson might look like this year, it might behoove you to sit in the stands in Gainesville a little bit and check out what some of the other guys are looking like because that will be kind of the cushion, so to speak, for Lawson.

00:25:10
Speaker 3: Let's keep it moving here.

00:25:11
Speaker 1: Another guy who is going to challenge hard at the top of the board is West Virginia's Gavin Kelly, another multi-positional individual. This one a little bit different though because they are premium positions and he may be a catcher. If he's not, maybe a corner outfield spot, maybe second base kind of remains to be seen. I think the hope among pro clubs is that he is going to stick behind the plate, but another player, if you put the defense aside where the bat is just really advanced, it's very similar to Lawson without quite the same power, but still pretty good. Yeah.

00:25:44
Speaker 2: Gavin Kelly might be just the best pure hitter in this class. He would certainly be on the short list of pure hitters. He makes a ton of contact. He has a swing. That really works. He obviously got to a lot of power this past spring. A big jump in home run production he had. He doesn't really expand the zone too much. I think in terms of swing decisions and aggressiveness, he probably threads the needle best of the top hitters in this class of not being too aggressive, not being too passive. That's nice to see. He makes a ton of contact in zone. For Gavin Kelly, you mentioned it. I think the positional question is interesting. We don't see a lot of catcher slash second base players at the top of the board here um and maybe my biggest question for gavin kelly and potentially the biggest question for him in the scouting community at large um has a lot to do with just the physicality and his size and i think the physicality question with him is going to you're going to have to talk about that when you're talking about where you're projecting him because there are not a lot of catchers at the major league level who are 175 pounds And if he is going to catch at that weight, how does that impact his production in the second half of a pro season? Catchers really have a lot of wear and tear. That position is a grind. There is a certain sort of like sturdiness and physicality threshold that I think you maybe need to get to to feel comfortable that you're not going to wear down at the position. And then also simultaneously, how does that physicality relate to his power with a wood bat? I think there are going to be some questions about Gavin Kelly's power and how that projects to the next level like you said he does not have Brendan Lawson's impact with a metal bat he does not have the same sort of raw power he just cannot create the same force that a Brendan Lawson can create and so if there are questions either about how much weight he can add or about just how much he's going to maintain given the rigors of whatever position he's going to play I do think there could be a lot more questions about okay we feel confident he's going to be a great pure hitter we feel confident beyond base skills but if that power starts to be more of a question projecting forward, then you're looking at a right, right position player who hasn't sort of shown the same track record in the same conferences that Brendan Lawson. So as we're kind of talking it through, it makes me feel good about the order we have, because I just think Gavin Kelly's questions are more significant at this stage. Um, but you could also throw it back to me and say, Hey, Gavin Kelly, at least has a chance to be a much more valuable defensive player and anything he can give you offensively. Um, we'll maybe give him more upside potential than, than a Brennan loss in a corner infield. I could see that case as well, which is why it gets interesting, but those are some of the big questions and kind of to-do items that I have personally for Kelly moving forward.

00:28:27
Speaker 3: For me, it's behind the plate. Let's really see it as a catcher this fall.

00:28:31
Speaker 1: And I think that it was close enough last spring that you could really see the vision this fall, I think is the opportunity to solidify that position because I will say that If there is growing confidence that soon becomes majority confidence that he could be a catcher leading into the draft, I think that his argument to potentially be the first overall pick, the first college player off the board, that kind of territory becomes a lot easier to justify if you're confident that he's going to stick behind the plate. And I'll also say this, just as food for thought, when you are as offensively capable as a player like Kelly is, I think that there are a lot more sins that people are going to forgive behind the plate when you are A, serviceable, and B, athletic, which are two boxes that I think Gavin Kelly checks. You can go back and look at guys like Will Smith when he was at Louisville. He was one of these multi-positional, super athlete, bat-first kind of catchers that really came on as a defender. I think Kelly kind of falls into that camp. Austin Barnes, Will Smith's former pro teammate, when he was at Arizona State, was very much the same thing, was a full-time second baseman for the Sun Devils who caught a little bit, and then he ends up and has a lengthy pro career as a backup catcher. different offensive category Kelly is you know worlds better than what Barnes was as a pro candidate as a professional prospect but I think that it kind of shows you the avenues like to your point are there more concerns with him physically maybe positionally offensively than there are with Brendan Lawson or possibly you can certainly make the argument but at the same time if you're a pro team out there and you have some confidence that you can get this guy to stick behind the plate he kind of catapults himself into a new prospect tier and so to me that is one of the more interesting themes of the entire fall which is does gavin kelly emerge as a no doubt catcher because if he does the prospect tier changes uh dramatically we are going to keep talking carlos about some names at the top of the board but first i want to talk about seat geek real quick just because they are our sponsor for this episode. So if you are looking to go to a game and it says sold out this MLB postseason, it does not mean that you can't get in on the action. Use SeatGeek to find the best seats available and get yourself some tickets. With over 35 million downloads, SeatGeek is the number one rated ticketing app, and you can get tickets to baseball games, concerts, festivals, and more. SeatGeek has your back because each ticket is rated on a scale of 1 to 10, so you know if you're getting a good deal or not. As if that wasn't easy enough, though. Look for the green dots, as green means good and red means bad. Every ticket is backed by their buyer guarantee. Of course, we have a code for you. You can use TERRITORY10 for 10% off your next set of MLB tickets at SeatGeek. That's 10% off any MLB tickets with promo code TERRITORY10. Make sure you click the link in the description to download the app and have the code automatically added to your account so you can use it later.

00:31:23
Speaker 3: Thank you, SeatGeek.

00:31:25
Speaker 1: All right, Carlos, we are continuing through our list of top names with something to do this fall, something to prove.

00:31:32
Speaker 3: This is the interesting one.

00:31:34
Speaker 2: Mr.

00:31:34
Speaker 1: Dax Whitney, who if you are a longtime listener of this show, you know that I am as big a Dax Whitney fan as they come. However, I must admit that I understand the concerns. Whitney underwent Tommy John surgery late last season. Excuse me, internal brace late last season, which is a very different procedure than Tommy John. Still same area, same ligament, slightly less severe. And the expectation, Los, is that he's going to miss most, if not all, of the 2027 season. Will my top pitcher in the draft on talent alone have enough time to recoup his value, and the other question, just to tie it back to the fall, what does a guy who can't do anything do to kind of stick around in the conversation?

00:32:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, to your first question, I don't think he has enough time to recoup the value that he would have had. I mean, if he was healthy, Dax Whitney is probably number one on our draft board overall, and he's going into the spring with a chance to just cement that. He also would have maybe had the best pitching season of any college arm in baseball. He was tracking that way last spring, so I definitely think both in terms of just like what he's been able to do in college and just how the risk assessment changes for a player who's having a serious elbow surgery, factoring that in, how much does that change? I do think that his talent is such that there's a floor. There's only so far he's going to be able to fall. His profile shouldn't change too much next spring because we really don't expect him to be able to pitch too much. I'm not sure if his timeline has changed, if he's going to be able to have any sort of tune-up games next, Before the actual draft, if people can see him throwing in a bullpen and it's the same stuff that we saw a year ago, that will obviously help. But I do think that Dax Whitney is just such a unique pitching talent. We haven't seen this in a few years. You have to go back a decent number of years in the draft to get to a pitcher who entered the year and is having a serious injury and still goes in the top 15. But if Dax Whitney is still top five pick without throwing a pitch next spring, that wouldn't surprise me. Um, I, I just think he's that good. And, and to your second point, like, what can you do this fall? I think it's mostly like, Hey, be really intentional, um, about the rehab, make sure the rehab is going well. I mean, that can be very taxing for a player physically, mentally. Uh, you just want to see that like everything has kind of gone to plan. Um, the scouts who are kind of on the ground talking to him about that process will have a much better read of that. And just making sure that he's hitting those checkpoints. I think that's really all you can do. Um, Beyond that, I'm not really sure what you're looking for him this fall. But what are your thoughts?

00:34:03
Speaker 1: I have one that I actually think you could make an entire pod. We might have to talk. We have to circle back on this topic. So note this. I think that there is a significant part of the scouting process that is on the makeup, mental, you know, character side. Then people may realize. I think that there is something for Dax Whitney to do. and this touches on your point as well, to kind of show teams that you are unequivocally bought in, that you are a great teammate, and that you are attacking your rehab in a motivated fashion that lets people know, not just believe, that if they are to draft you and pay you millions of dollars at the top of the first round as an injured pitcher, you are going to come into that system and be a killer.

00:34:53
Speaker 3: You are going to work hard. You are going to do everything that is asked of you. You are coachable.

00:34:57
Speaker 1: And so when you are not playing, I think that the microscope shifts dramatically to what you're doing off the field. Where is he sitting in the dugout? What is he doing when he's sitting in the dugout? Are you taking notes on a clipboard? We see pitchers do that all the time. Or are you kind of moseying around and doing your own thing? Are you engaging with teammates? Are you helping with bullpens? That is a huge deal in my opinion. for Dax Whitney this fall. Because in talking to pro teams, there are multiple that put a ton of stock into things like that. They will determine where they think you belong on their org prep lists based on whether or not they think you kind of suck as a person, or if you're going to go and be a dog who's going to be a mental contributor, a fountain instead of a drain, to use a college basketball-ism, for a team.

00:35:46
Speaker 2: So.

00:35:47
Speaker 3: Is it physical? Is that something that's easily understood?

00:35:50
Speaker 1: Is that an objective marker to track for Dax Whitney this fall? No, and that's not going to be possible because we're not going to see him throw a baseball for another eight months. But I don't think that it's a lost offseason, if that makes sense, because there are other check marks away from the field that not only he can check, but he probably has to because that's the only quote-unquote progress that he has an opportunity to make.

00:36:15
Speaker 2: I agree wholeheartedly with everything you just said. I think people outside of the game really should just understand how important that entire mental aspect and makeup component really is for making decisions, especially at the very top of the draft where it's millions and millions of dollars. So, yeah, well said.

00:36:31
Speaker 1: We're a little deep into our show, so we're going to move down the list here. We're going to start talking about some non-top names here, some guys that we currently have ranked outside the first round.

00:36:41
Speaker 3: What does that mean? 30 teams, 30 picks.

00:36:44
Speaker 1: If you're outside the top 30-ish, we'll say that right now in September, that's outside the first round range.

00:36:51
Speaker 3: Los, we'll start with you.

00:36:53
Speaker 1: One outside of the top 30 guy who you're like, man, this could be easily top 30 if these things happen starting with the fall.

00:37:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I had two names I want to mention, but I know we've gone a little long, so I'll just cut it down to one. I've talked about Will Sanford before. I think he's a decent candidate. I also think he's a pretty easy candidate to be in the top 30 on our next update. So I'll talk about Nate Savoy at Clemson, a catcher with just tremendous power. Last year, we had a really strong catching class, and I just feel like the offensive components that Savoy has, the power that he's able to access is super exciting. I think the 20 home runs, 16 home runs in 2025 and 2026, he hit respectively. And just seeing him in the box in person last spring just made me really excited for him as a player. I think for him, if he's able to make a little bit more contact, improve the on-base skills and really add that to the power and maybe just get a better feel for how I personally think about him as a catcher, leave no doubt that you can be a catcher. I could see him being a player who shoots up. So he's a hitter that I really like. How about you?

00:37:59
Speaker 1: I'm going to go to the mound to start. And that is to talk about Jack Oman from Yale.

00:38:05
Speaker 3: Interesting season.

00:38:05
Speaker 1: I think it's a little bit unique and it's crazy to say this, but it's unique when a guy sticks at an Ivy League school for three years and doesn't hit the transfer market when you are as good as Jack Oman is.

00:38:14
Speaker 3: A little bit of a down sophomore season.

00:38:16
Speaker 1: He battled some injury stuff that I think was an inhibitor and kind of disrupted his flow. And he comes back out on the Cape and he impressed us. He was in a lot of our cape standout pieces can see him having another big year uh and kind of starting in the fall you probably have to re-establish a little bit of that freshman look where things are just a little bit smoother operationally uh and you can kind of distance yourself from that weird sophomore season and start to get back on the track that's another guy that i could see easily jumping into the top 30 uh soonish probably not pre-season he'll have to show us a little bit in the spring yeah before that happens but if he ends there it wouldn't surprise me and then the other guy.

00:38:49
Speaker 2: I And before you move into your guy, I guess I should clarify, Nate Savoy did transfer to Texas A & M. So he's not, I said him, as a Clemson player, he's near the top of our transfer portal rankings because of that power in part. So like how he handles that transfer will be interesting as well. But yeah, go ahead to your next guy.

00:39:07
Speaker 3: I got one more transfer for you.

00:39:08
Speaker 1: Jamie Laskofsky, who made the move from William & Mary to North Carolina. Yeah.

00:39:13
Speaker 3: I'm going to just ride the hot hand here, Los.

00:39:15
Speaker 1: Last year, my biggest breakout pick was easily Owen Hall, who was not even in our top 300 to start the year. And I was talking about that guy like a first, second round pick, which is what happened. I'm gonna try to do it again with a similar transfer profile uh and that is jamie laskovsky who i expect to play shortstop for unc this spring uh he is a plus runner he is a plus hitter he has more power than you would expect for somebody who's a little bit more table setty uh from a from a hitting standpoint from a skill standpoint uh there is some pop there he was great on the Cape with a wood bat, which is really encouraging as well. And I think that Jamie Laskowski over the last couple months, the summer months, has put himself into that first round territory for me. Right now, we have him looking a little bit more like a mid to late second round pick based on our secret rankings, which the people cannot see yet.

00:40:06
Speaker 3: I anticipate, and I'm warning you, Carlos, that.

00:40:09
Speaker 1: I will probably get on the table a little bit when it comes to talk about Laskowski, just because if you're going to Going to the breakout category, I think that he is a prime one to have a massive season.

00:40:19
Speaker 2: Yeah, you won't have to pound the table too hard because I think I'm there with you. It could be some combination of like an Owen Hull, Jake Schaffner, Cain Kepley. North Carolina has done a really nice job getting transfers in and having them produce and then seeing them rewarded on draft day. He could easily be the next in line.

00:40:34
Speaker 1: And this really does just, I know we're going to nerd out here a little bit too. We're going beyond the schedule, but I do think that Laskovsky kind of blends some of those skill sets together.

00:40:41
Speaker 3: The guys you just mentioned, like the.

00:40:43
Speaker 1: Speed is a little bit Kepley in the contact ability is a little bit like Hall when he was coming out of George Mason. The position is obviously he's going to directly replace Schaffner and he's got some similarities back to ball wise there, but data wise last year from William and Mary is an interesting player. Like the EVs don't jump off the screen, but then he gets to the Cape this summer and he starts hitting the ball a little bit harder. The contact ability has kind of always been there.

00:41:06
Speaker 3: He's aggressive.

00:41:07
Speaker 1: Like we talked about passivity with some of our top names. This is a 42 ish, percent swinger. And if you're going to throw the ball over the middle of the plate, he will rip at it. Uh, and you know, if the, if the physicality that we saw over the summer translates, uh, major breakout candidate, let's go even further down the board. As we start to wrap up here, these are our deepest sleepers. We each have two players in this category. This is like the last Kofsky's and Savoy's of the world, or maybe in our second round ish conversation for the time being, this is like way off the board guys who will have to do a ultimately end up in the in the top round conversation.

00:41:44
Speaker 2: You want me to go first you're up i think uh jake mccoy is a name that i'll immediately point to because a year ago we probably could have said this exact same thing a player that we're excited about as an up arrow he had this tremendous summer on the cape was maybe the best pitching prospect in the cape two years ago and then he got hurt before the season he didn't get to pitch i thought there were still going to be a number of teams that were willing to take a chance on him. And I think in an older draft system and an older college system, there might have not been the sort of money that I'm sure he's getting from Tennessee to transfer from South Carolina to Tennessee. So I'm really fascinated with Jake McCoy. I feel like when healthy, he's shown the sort of stuff that could easily have him be a top three round sort of player, maybe even higher than that if he comes back and is healthy. The mix of pitches is exciting. The command that he showed in a short stretch in the Cape, is really exciting. So I feel like he is a name that maybe people have forgotten a little bit about, but the talent should all still be there. He's going to have a chance to prove it with this really exciting new look, Tennessee team that has a ton of attractive transfer players, really exciting impact players on both sides of the ball. So he's one I'm going towards. How about you?

00:42:56
Speaker 1: Well, I just want to say on Jake McCoy, kind of an interesting test case here as well. This, this is a real opportunity to see how lucrative and valuable and reliable the the new college baseball path is. It was a pretty easy decision from what I understand for McCoy to turn down pro opportunities, which he had, in order to end up at Tennessee for what I understand to be a pretty penny for sure. Is it worth it to not go pro at the earliest opportunity?

00:43:23
Speaker 3: And as you said, there was a.

00:43:24
Speaker 1: Lot of Jake McCoy momentum going into the season last year before he blew out, and then it all kind of evaporated instantly. But different than some other Tommy John guys, he did not go... rapidly falling down the board like it was a pretty soft landing towards that like third round area after the surgery happened should he have taken advantage of that in an old world as you said for sure now super murky and he's gonna have an opportunity to be an SEC ace again and that could definitely push him back up the board similar vein not quite the same prospect status at the time but my first guy is Michael Malky who was at Cal Baptist last year he was their ace led a staff that was top five in the country and in ERA and strikeouts. Now he's at Arkansas. And word on the street, Los, is that Mr. Mulkey, who topped out at 94 last year during a breakout season, a very effective breakout season at Cal Baptist, is now sitting in the mid-90s and up to 98 with a banger curveball that's always been there, real spin capacity, and a changeup that has started to look really good too. So we're talking about a guy who is on the shorter side of right-hander with pro velocity all of a sudden, and two breaking balls that have always been pretty attractive to scouts. That would be very high up on my lookout list going.

00:44:40
Speaker 3: Into the fall.

00:44:42
Speaker 2: Yeah, that stuff jump is real. If that maintains next spring, that's super exciting. My second player is another pitcher. I'm also going back to the transfer well here. Caden Suchi, a left-handed pitcher, previously at Connecticut, now heading to Florida State. I'm fascinated by just this strike throwing profile that he has. And I would love for you to come here and tell me that he's also had a huge velocity jump, because I think that's maybe the one piece of his arsenal that could really help him significantly jump up draft boards because he sits in the like 90 mile per hour range with his fastball. But what really excites me is just, he throws that pitch a ton for strikes. I think there are some attributes he has from an extent extension, maybe a deception standpoint, but allows that pitch to play a little bit above that velocity. He has, swing and miss secondaries with a change up and a couple of breaking balls. For me, it would be awesome if he came out and just showed a little bit more power, a little bit more physicality, a little bit more swing and miss upside potential. But I do think this is the sort of profile, this proven starter in college with just a really appealing, well-rounded blend of pitches that I want to be more aggressive on earlier in the year. And I'm hopeful that he can take a step forward on his own merits as well. So that's a name I'm really excited to see.

00:45:56
Speaker 1: Yeah, he was a fall breakout name, actually. If you want to figure out the value of our fall breakout series, when we were writing about this stuff last year, Suki was one of the guys we highlighted as a name to look out for.

00:46:07
Speaker 2: Doubling down, I guess.

00:46:09
Speaker 3: Yeah, there you go. We're going to do it again. He's back in school. A little bit of a bigger stage now.

00:46:13
Speaker 1: And I'll also say to your extension point, there are some who believe that he could get even more extension out of his arsenal right now, which would help him even more even before a potential extension. velocity jump just because he shows such good extension on his changeup. It actually beats his fastball by a pretty wide margin. And there are some who believe that he can continue to get more out of the heater. My last guy, just to wrap this up, is Gavin King, who transferred from Middle Tennessee State to Texas. He's a top 40 transfer for us.

00:46:43
Speaker 3: Why?

00:46:44
Speaker 1: Because 6'7 righties who touch 99 are easy to get behind. It is a big cut-ride profile. There are multiple pitches in there. He throws a true cutter, curveball change-up. That curveball had a 65% whiff rate last year, which, put simply, will play. And it's just another guy who gets to go into the Max Wiener school of pitching, which is a place that I think guys tend to come out looking.

00:47:10
Speaker 3: Pretty good in.

00:47:11
Speaker 1: There are guys who have opted for more seasons of that just because... He is a miracle worker when it comes to developing arms, and this is a loud tool set.

00:47:20
Speaker 3: There is a ways to go.

00:47:22
Speaker 1: The extension could be better, especially for somebody that tall. The fastball could be flatter, but the power and the raw spin ability, I think, are the tools that you really want to put on Max Wiener's plate and just kind of see what happens.

00:47:36
Speaker 3: Is he a ready-made prospect? Not even close.

00:47:38
Speaker 1: But is he going into a developmental house that has me feeling really confident about somebody with his tools on the mound?

00:47:44
Speaker 3: Absolutely.

00:47:45
Speaker 1: So a deeper target, deeper dart throw to keep an eye on developmentally this year. Any closing thoughts for you, Los, before we get out of here?

00:47:55
Speaker 2: No, I like that Gavin King pick. He was a player that I was really excited about in the draft last year. He actually withdrew officially. We had him as like a late BA500 name. And I was really curious to see if some savvy pitching org would get him. But now I guess a savvy pitching org does have him. It's just at the college ranks. So some good picks there.

00:48:14
Speaker 3: There you go.

00:48:14
Speaker 1: Well, if you liked this and if you like our content, may I encourage you, please head on over to baseballamerica.com because that is where all of our written stuff is. And that's the good stuff. You want the sleepers, the fall breakouts. It's all over at baseballamerica.com. Also check out our YouTube, Baseball America. Lots of great video content and live shows coming to you throughout the MLB postseason. So lots of baseball to consume. And again, I will remind you, the College Podcast is now weekly in the fall. So we will be back talking to you again next Tuesday. For Carlos Collazo, I'm Jacob Rudner. And for this week, we'll see you next time.