[SPEAKER_01]: This is Invest Talk, from KPP Financial, helping investors make sense of the markets one day at a time.

[SPEAKER_01]: Here's your host, Justin Klein.

[SPEAKER_00]: Good afternoon, fellow investors, and welcome back to Invest Talk.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is our Tuesday, September 29th, 2026.

[SPEAKER_00]: Just me, you'll get Luke later on in the week, but I'm excited to be a part of your next hour.

[SPEAKER_00]: To answer your finance and investment questions, bring you data and perspective to all four or 25 years of an investment experience.

[SPEAKER_00]: And to help you take that next step, that's what each show is really.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's helping you to write mindset to learn lessons, so you avoid pitfalls and you capitalize on activities better,

[SPEAKER_00]: And ultimately, when you do that, you that consistently, you will have great outcomes with your money.

[SPEAKER_00]: So that's what we do every day.

[SPEAKER_00]: And in addition, we are adding on what we used to do a long time ago, pre-COVID, which was in-person events, we're getting back to them.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's coming up in about three weeks, over three weeks, October 24th, it'll be our

[SPEAKER_00]: So your chance to join the KPP team and some guest experts for in-person, retirement summit in Irvine, California, the event is free of charge, but seating is limited, limited, very limited, really have about 50 spots, and I think over half of them are taken already.

[SPEAKER_00]: So you must be registered by heading over to investtalk.com now and just a bit.

[SPEAKER_00]: We'll talk about today's Mark performance and run down the show topics, but first let's tackle this color question.

[SPEAKER_09]: Yeah.

[SPEAKER_09]: I just and Luke got another question for you about Comcast period.

[SPEAKER_09]: I think you know what you're going to say, but I wonder if you think this is a value play at this level period.

[SPEAKER_09]: I think they're building up some fiber and they have some good free cash flow.

[SPEAKER_09]: So I think if this could be a time to make a purchase, what are your thoughts?

[SPEAKER_09]: Thanks again for everything.

[SPEAKER_00]: Alright, looking at Comcast, CMCSA, it's a name that's been down, but the question is, is it down for a good enough reason now?

[SPEAKER_00]: The main reason is certainly the debt load.

[SPEAKER_00]: The debt load is high, it's about $76 billion market cap.

[SPEAKER_00]: which is a lot.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's a lot.

[SPEAKER_00]: But their free cash flow is also very strong.

[SPEAKER_00]: So 17.8 billion.

[SPEAKER_00]: And if you go look at their maturity schedule,

[SPEAKER_00]: It's not like they are, they don't have a ton of refinancing going forward.

[SPEAKER_00]: Their debt is termed out 10 plus years.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think Luke and I actually looked at this recently because we do own this four clients.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm done, you know, double check, which you remember correctly.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that's the case is that yes they have some debt, but it's fixed.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's, they don't have a lot of exposure to high rates because their refinancing is only going to be about $5 billion, let me just pull it up here.

[SPEAKER_00]: About a billion dollars or so plus a year for the next decade, which they produce $17.8 billion in free cash flow.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, this year it's another two and a half billion.

[SPEAKER_00]: So like I said, it's about 20% of their free cash flow.

[SPEAKER_00]: They could just go and pay off that debt.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's matured.

[SPEAKER_00]: So that's not really an issue.

[SPEAKER_00]: And the free cash flow is near an all-time high.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's certainly an uptrend over the last 10 years.

[SPEAKER_00]: Trenakwood is 11% good, but not amazing, but that yield 6.6% is pretty.

[SPEAKER_00]: Pretty nice.

[SPEAKER_00]: So what I'm seeing or we're seeing and why we actually, I believe we own this in one of our smaller accounts when our smaller strategies.

[SPEAKER_00]: So we say is a dividend that is sustainable.

[SPEAKER_00]: Their pair ratio is only 42%.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like I said, their debt level is sustainable.

[SPEAKER_00]: And this is why it's nuanced.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is why you want data points or data feeds like fax, or Bloomberg, something like that,

[SPEAKER_00]: How far out is there?

[SPEAKER_00]: Is there debt termed out too?

[SPEAKER_00]: So to me, we actually think this is a good value.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is starting $3.50, six cents next year.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's $21 stock.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like I said, a lot of that free cash flow is just going to go towards paying down debt.

[SPEAKER_00]: Let's see how they buying back shares.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, they're buying back shares.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I think that the debt levels are just the little bits.

[SPEAKER_00]: over embellished, or at least the worry of them, and I actually think it's a good bye.

[SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, to grow a show yesterday, we looked into this story, Life Maxing, the trap by 72% Americans are risking their financial feature.

[SPEAKER_00]: And you sofy survey revealed that no.2-3rds, sorry, three quarters of Americans say they slow their financial progress to enjoy life today, and they call life Maxing, so we dig into that story.

[SPEAKER_00]: I term, Luke didn't love very much.

[SPEAKER_00]: We also answered your listener questions on VNQ,

[SPEAKER_00]: You have a miss a go check out the best way to get every show to follow the best talk wherever you get your podcasts.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, we have a lot of ground to cover over the next 45 minutes or so in time for many we're going to get to all of it and it may focus point to day concerns this story.

[SPEAKER_00]: Bond Market flips to higher for longer.

[SPEAKER_00]: What does this mean for every asset class and how do you eventually rebalance your portfolio, the implications for stocks, real estate, retirement portfolios, etc.

[SPEAKER_00]: Also, there is, there are Wall Street analysts that look and focus on different sectors.

[SPEAKER_00]: When you go and look at those analyst expectations, there is a stark contrast and it's a contrast that's going to be resolved in two ways and it's between operating cash flow from the

[SPEAKER_00]: So, how is that going to resolve?

[SPEAKER_00]: One is wrong.

[SPEAKER_00]: We'll dig into that story.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then anthropic, this file that's perspective for IPO, we'll dig into what it says and I'll give it my take.

[SPEAKER_00]: We also have voice bank calls, one is on the stock market versus owning a rental properties and as well as the I shares,

[SPEAKER_00]: zero to three month treasury bond, ETF, SGOV, and also here is some question that came me in the comment section of the invest stock YouTube channel.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to head into a quick break, please remember you can call any time.

[SPEAKER_00]: Leave your question on the invest stock.

[SPEAKER_00]: We'll explain to you if you're looking for our live stream or possibly on EM 1220 the Bay Area in Ghana right now.

[SPEAKER_00]: 889 chart is how you get in touch as always.

[SPEAKER_00]: But up next, that will comment on today's market activity.

[SPEAKER_01]: There are a few things that make KPP financial special.

[SPEAKER_01]: One of them is parallel investing.

[SPEAKER_01]: This means they invest right alongside their clients.

[SPEAKER_01]: Here's how it works.

[SPEAKER_01]: When KPP financial makes a trade for their clients, just in client makes the same trade for himself and KPP.

[SPEAKER_01]: On the same day, at the same price, and same percentage.

[SPEAKER_01]: No front running, no special treatment.

[SPEAKER_01]: Learn more about Parallel Investing at Investalk.com.

[SPEAKER_00]: S&P down 17 basis points, the Dow down about a quarter of a 1% so another modest down day overall, I still think once again we're in a choppy period for markets, I don't expect a lot of big movements either way before the midterms, but I do think the midterms could be a strong catalyst.

[SPEAKER_00]: One way or the other, depending on the outcome, depending on not just the voting, but post-election, if there's any type of, let's say lawsuits, or anything that throws the results into disarray or uncertainty, I think that's certainly a looming factor.

[SPEAKER_00]: And we are, I believe, what's five weeks from today?

[SPEAKER_00]: So it's going to come up fast here.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so there's a lot to discuss.

[SPEAKER_00]: Today we had OpenAI, they look like they flagged.

[SPEAKER_00]: They were moving towards about $70 billion in annual run rate revenue.

[SPEAKER_00]: They launched an assistant called dots that's kind of counter to met as mu's, so that was kind of the big news or some optimism around aion general after the anthropic perspective that came out yesterday.

[SPEAKER_00]: You did that met up 3% of the day.

[SPEAKER_00]: But it's certainly mixed overall.

[SPEAKER_00]: Tesla down 1.2 and videos edge down a little bit.

[SPEAKER_00]: But you had some of the names like Micron that edgeed a higher.

[SPEAKER_00]: But it was very, it was a very mixed day, a very odd day overall.

[SPEAKER_00]: Treasuries were mixed with curved steepening yields were down two to three basis points on the front end, but the long end continued to rise.

[SPEAKER_00]: The 30 year hit another high, the highest level since 2002.

[SPEAKER_00]: dollar index up to point two percent gold finished up point three silver's down point nine Bitcoin futures up point two and WT accrued settled down three and a half per cent As there's continues more up to be more optimism around some sort of deal in the Middle East once again as I said yesterday we shall see What else do we get

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, New York Fed Williams said there's no urgency for another rate hike after the September hike.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I think it's why you saw the short end down, overall, said only one further hike.

[SPEAKER_00]: later this year may be appropriate.

[SPEAKER_00]: So instead of two hikes, the rest of the year, you may only get one.

[SPEAKER_00]: So that was really that move.

[SPEAKER_00]: Iran officials expect to skepticism on the deal in the Middle East.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I still think that's going to be up in the air for a while.

[SPEAKER_00]: So that's where we were today, mixed market and really a mixed market for the past few months.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to pivot over to.

[SPEAKER_10]: Let's talk about, let's go to a YouTube comment question.

[SPEAKER_00]: Met says I invest not to look to expand my merging market exposure already hold positions in India, Mexico, I'm now considering FLBR for access to the Brazilian market, F L B R. This is the Franklin puts the Brazil ETF, 19 basis points is the expense ratio.

[SPEAKER_00]: Let's go take a look at the chart.

[SPEAKER_00]: What is up here?

[SPEAKER_00]: FLBR.

[SPEAKER_00]: The first thing I think about when you're looking at a particular country,

[SPEAKER_00]: foreign country in today's market is an inflationary environment, inflation in an environment where globalization is retrenching, resource commodities are becoming more valuable.

[SPEAKER_00]: You see that.

[SPEAKER_00]: So what I'm looking at, like I said, to invest in a particular country, is this country resource rich or resource resource poor?

[SPEAKER_00]: I think this is a very resource rich country.

[SPEAKER_00]: So in general, I like it.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, they are going through elections right now and they have a unique, I think, multi-round process.

[SPEAKER_00]: But so far, the market's liking the potential out of a member correctly, Bolsonaro is in the lead.

[SPEAKER_00]: I forget exactly, it's a dig into that.

[SPEAKER_00]: But usually, the signal is well priced in.

[SPEAKER_00]: or even let me do EWZ.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that would be the other question too is would you just buy EWZ, which is another very popular ETF.

[SPEAKER_00]: That is 59 basis points expense ratio.

[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, I probably would go with FLBR over an EWZ and the chart looks pretty good.

[SPEAKER_00]: So if you're looking for diversification, you're looking for some exposure to South America and getting specific onto a resource rich country like Brazil.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to give FLBR a thumbs up.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, our 24-7 Invest Talk Voice Bank never closes, so you can leave your finance and investment question anytime on 8-899 chart, and I work at the news after this break.

[SPEAKER_03]: Invest Talk is ready 24-7 for your finance and investment questions.

[SPEAKER_07]: I'm hoping you'll give me your take on or Matt Technologies ORA.

[SPEAKER_10]: Is it a good idea to sell your losses in a Roth IRA and just use whatever you have left to reinvest in the better stocks?

[SPEAKER_03]: Don't forget to call.

[SPEAKER_03]: Invest talk.

[SPEAKER_03]: 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_01]: Investors working with KPP Financial relies immediate and practical benefits because KPP uses a philosophy of parallel investing.

[SPEAKER_01]: Simply stated, parallel investing means that KPP Financial principles invest their own money alongside clients in the same securities on the same day and at the same price.

[SPEAKER_01]: parallel investing could make a big difference for your portfolio.

[SPEAKER_01]: So learn more, request a conversation, or get a free portfolio review.

[SPEAKER_01]: You can start now at investtalk.com.

[SPEAKER_00]: a couple of years, and usually they're focusing on one particular sector, so they're really good at.

[SPEAKER_00]: And this is what I usually say is,

[SPEAKER_00]: This is probably the best thing while she analysts are good at is, I don't say long term earnings expectations, but short to, let's say medium, let's call it two, three, maybe four quarters out.

[SPEAKER_00]: Let's just keep it two, three, two, three quarters out.

[SPEAKER_00]: They're pretty good at figuring out what a company is likely to earn.

[SPEAKER_00]: Because they know the industry, they talk to the management regularly, and they're pretty good at those earnings projections.

[SPEAKER_00]: But history says that the further out you go with these anal sexifications, the more overly optimistic they are.

[SPEAKER_00]: So currently,

[SPEAKER_00]: When you go look at the earnings expectations or operating cash flow expectations, because they do project out more than just earnings.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's revenue, cash flow, operating cash flow, et cetera.

[SPEAKER_00]: Operating cash flow, this is from the business, okay?

[SPEAKER_00]: Not from raising capital, that would be in the under financing activity, for example.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is running their true businesses.

[SPEAKER_00]: operating cash flow in the tech industry to double by 2028.

[SPEAKER_00]: Pretty crazy, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: So not next year with the year after.

[SPEAKER_00]: So from 1.2 billion, lat, tri trillion last year in free cash flow to 2.4 trillion, the year after next.

[SPEAKER_00]: And we're almost into the next year.

[SPEAKER_00]: So little over two years from now.

[SPEAKER_00]: But then you look at the analysts in the other sectors that are focusing on.

[SPEAKER_00]: real estate, materials, utilities, consumer staples, energy, industrial health care, consumer discretionary, those sectors.

[SPEAKER_00]: They're projecting growth in operating cash flow, but not nearly to that level, which means that it raises the question, where is that cash flow going to come from?

[SPEAKER_00]: Both of them can not be right at the same time.

[SPEAKER_00]: The technology revenue has to come from providing these services, these goods and services to the rest of the economy.

[SPEAKER_00]: Right, because if you have operating cash flow within a sector, for example, if Dell goes and buys and video chips, right, then they're going to net each other out.

[SPEAKER_00]: But then Dell is going to go sell those computers probably to other companies that

[SPEAKER_00]: So one of them is wrong, and the question is which one?

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, I'm going to bet that you're not doubling operating free cash flow in just a matter of three years.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is a Vestock.

[SPEAKER_00]: You never call it why not do it now.

[SPEAKER_00]: You didn't need to chart.

[SPEAKER_00]: Isn't it really let's keep things moving and play another listener question now?

[SPEAKER_08]: Hi Justin and Luke.

[SPEAKER_08]: I'm wondering in our book, writing a great environment, if I should hold on to my real estate income fund,

[SPEAKER_08]: It's symbol S-R-I-S-X, the fidelity, real estate, and confund.

[SPEAKER_08]: In fact, I have a general question.

[SPEAKER_08]: Should I have any briefs at all in my portfolio in a rising rate environment?

[SPEAKER_08]: Thanks for your help.

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, I never want to have a blanket statement and say, all reads are all companies in one sector are bad because of this one economic or market variable.

[SPEAKER_00]: But what I can say is that when you're investing in a fund, you're generally going to get similar performance amongst all of the various names that it holds.

[SPEAKER_00]: And this name holds, it's about 54 different equity holdings, because it all reads.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, read number one, they pay dividend.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so in that way, they're bond proxies, but also they're passed through entities, which means that when they have cash flow, they have to move the vast majority, 90% of that cash flow on to shareholders in the form of that dividend.

[SPEAKER_00]: So that's why they pay the dividend.

[SPEAKER_00]: But that does leave or does not leave, excuse me, very much money left over to pay down debt.

[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, so that is the issue here.

[SPEAKER_00]: Is that

[SPEAKER_00]: if they've made back bad acquisitions or they're about to over levered, that can be the double whammy that they don't have the cash flow to pay down the debt.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like we talked about Cam, Comcast before, producing huge cash to leak and take all that cash flow and pay off debt if they wanted to.

[SPEAKER_00]: Reeds can't really do that.

[SPEAKER_00]: So that's why I'd say yes, a reap fund, not a big fan of.

[SPEAKER_00]: probably stay away because it is such a brawn proxy.

[SPEAKER_00]: But is every readout there bad?

[SPEAKER_00]: I wouldn't say that, it's just be very selective.

[SPEAKER_00]: The next investor talk will look into the story.

[SPEAKER_00]: Trump's Trump's G-summit, the investment playbook after the U.S.

[SPEAKER_00]: At KPP Financial, Accountability means more than advice.

[SPEAKER_00]: It means we invest alongside you, through our parallel investing approach.

[SPEAKER_00]: When we recommend an investment for clients, one or more KPP principles invest their own capital at the same time, same day, same price, same percentage.

[SPEAKER_00]: If your portfolio moves, ours does too.

[SPEAKER_00]: That is alignment.

[SPEAKER_00]: That is transparency.

[SPEAKER_00]: That is the KPP difference.

[SPEAKER_00]: Visit investtalk.com to get your free portfolio review.

[SPEAKER_01]: The Invest Talk Retirement Summit is coming to Irvine, California, on Saturday, October 24th.

[SPEAKER_01]: For an exclusive in-person event, it will focus on five key decisions that can shape your financial future.

[SPEAKER_01]: Attendance is complimentary and seating is limited.

[SPEAKER_01]: Reserve your place now at investalk.com.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, I made a focus point today is about the bond market flip, flipping to higher for longer.

[SPEAKER_00]: And what that really means for every asset class.

[SPEAKER_00]: We continue to talk about that March higher in rates over five and a half on the 30 year, oh, about what five and a quarter now on the 10 year, which translates into higher mortgage rates higher, borrowing costs across the economy,

[SPEAKER_00]: And eventually, I do think it will have an impact on parts of the equity markets.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's pretty clear if you look in the past.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, I mean, I happen immediately, at least hasn't happened so far, because you kind of get this shopping environment that we're dealing with.

[SPEAKER_00]: But a market rotation is likely in the cards if these rates persist.

[SPEAKER_00]: And if the economy remains relatively resilient, if you go look at the GDP now figure from the Atlanta Fed, that's crazy.

[SPEAKER_00]: Think about with these interests, that's 5% for the quarter now.

[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously a big part of that is AI data center, build out, but yeah, that's what we're at.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that's another reason why the market used to price in higher short-term rates for the Fed.

[SPEAKER_00]: So what does this mean for your savings, for example?

[SPEAKER_00]: Number one is you're going to get high CD rates, you're going to get higher, high yield savings account rates, you're going to get higher, money market rates, etc.

[SPEAKER_00]: So that is an opportunity.

[SPEAKER_00]: And it's an opportunity to potentially lock in a little higher rates.

[SPEAKER_00]: Does that mean you say, OK, I'm going to get CDs.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's hard to pick that near term top.

[SPEAKER_00]: What's clear, though, is that you don't want to overextend yourself, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: You don't want to go too far out in duration.

[SPEAKER_00]: But it does make highly speculative assets that can be very volatile, lots of attractive.

[SPEAKER_00]: Because now you don't have you or trying to hit a certain return target, especially if you're retiree, why would you take risk?

[SPEAKER_00]: on a volatile asset like equities when you can go get guaranteed return in something like certain fixed income assets.

[SPEAKER_00]: So that's one way that it can be a drag on broader equities and the regard is seeing that to a degree.

[SPEAKER_00]: The other is more specifically tech equities.

[SPEAKER_00]: High rates increase the discount rate.

[SPEAKER_00]: When you're doing was called discounted cash flow model, which is the standard model to figure out the current value of those future cash flows of those big growth names is you discount each year by the discount rate.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that when the rates go up, the discount goes up, which means that those further out earnings are valued all at less today.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that's what happened in 2022 when you saw multiples contract considerably.

[SPEAKER_00]: And more than likely,

[SPEAKER_00]: 3, 6, 9 months, if rates persist at these levels, you're going to get some type of re-rating again.

[SPEAKER_00]: A shift from growth at all costs back to quality.

[SPEAKER_00]: Quality businesses that produce cash flow.

[SPEAKER_00]: Not burn cash flow.

[SPEAKER_00]: When you burn cash flow, that's the cost of equity, the cost of capital goes up and suddenly you're not nearly as attractive.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's harder to raise capital.

[SPEAKER_00]: more expensive to raise capital, so that's a very likely shift that's happening in markets.

[SPEAKER_00]: Next, real estate, type of mortgage rates, these are going to price out the marginal buyer, whether that's commercial real estate, whether that's residential real estate,

[SPEAKER_00]: You want to, as I've said before, if you're looking to sell your real estate, you need to get that on the market sooner or later.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not gonna care if it's past selling season and all that, you get it on so you can start to feel the offers and you never know, you'll only need one binary.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you're gonna buy real estate, well, patience is a virtue.

[SPEAKER_00]: As of before, you wanna avoid those heavily levered REITs

[SPEAKER_00]: in your portfolio.

[SPEAKER_00]: So the broad picture is capital is getting more expensive.

[SPEAKER_00]: The market is going to continue to start punishing companies that rely on cheap debt to finance their operations, and move towards companies that produce their own internal cash flow with a solid, with a solid debt profile.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now one aspect of this, I think is underrated in one another reason why I think Cossack Apple will go up is that for years, more and more money was being saved because people weren't getting their pensions.

[SPEAKER_00]: They were self-funding their retirement.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now that's pretty much the entire market, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: There's nobody's really getting a pension anymore, except for some public sector workers, maybe some teachers at some universities or something like that.

[SPEAKER_00]: Almost everybody's financing it through saving the 401k, which puts money into the stock market, which puts money into the bond market, et cetera.

[SPEAKER_00]: But also those people are starting to use the money, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: You sell funded, you're saving your 401k and your IRA and now you're retiring.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now you had COVID.

[SPEAKER_00]: So you, you know, in your 60s and 70s, you really see you, you know, we have so many years left.

[SPEAKER_00]: So what are you doing?

[SPEAKER_00]: You're probably spending a little bit more.

[SPEAKER_00]: So you see, not just a K-shaped economy, but it's economy that's heavily skewed towards the old generation.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so now all of that capital that was sucked away into those asset classes, it's coming out.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that's why the cost of capital continues to go up.

[SPEAKER_00]: And why the economy continues to say relatively resilient.

[SPEAKER_00]: because it's mainly being held up by AI and that's I, but also the boomer generation that has led at Queen their home, they have a lot of financial assets, their social security, and their spending.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, the T2C cost scalpel goat go up, and these are the longer-term impacts that will have in a financial crisis.

[SPEAKER_00]: Here comes another listener question from A to D99 chart, this time from New York.

[SPEAKER_02]: I don't get from New York.

[SPEAKER_02]: Thank you for all that you do.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm looking to park some short-term cash in these rising rate environment.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I'm weighing two options right now.

[SPEAKER_02]: After listening to your show, I think I found something.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'm currently looking at ultra short treasury fund like SGOV.

[SPEAKER_02]: I already had that.

[SPEAKER_02]: I've like $900 in it.

[SPEAKER_02]: versus an ultra short corporate bond fund like I see S H and if you have time you can look at JPST but on paper the corporate fund offers a slightly higher yield but I live in New York so I know the state tech exemption on treasuries narrows that gap to almost nothing.

[SPEAKER_02]: I give no work credit spread is are right now and knowing that maybe there's going to be another interest rate hike.

[SPEAKER_02]: should I put new money in the ultra short corporate fund should I just stay with putting more money in Eskov or should I actually just keep the money in the specs and make sure that I'm also dollar cost averageing into some stocks which will probably get into a correction point.

[SPEAKER_02]: So just bonus and I'm just trying to be smart with my money now.

[SPEAKER_02]: Thank you for all that you do.

[SPEAKER_02]: Bye.

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, the broader asset allocation, I'd have to do deeper dive in your situation, your portfolio, how much cash you have, what type of emergency fund do you have, what type of needs for that cash might you have in your real life in this short term.

[SPEAKER_00]: So that's kind of a bigger question that's a bit more difficult to answer in this setting.

[SPEAKER_00]: But when you're looking at these funds, you're looking at three very, I'm say very safe, but pretty safe, short term bond funds.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, SGOV is the one that we use for as a money market alternative for our clients, so we do like it.

[SPEAKER_00]: Nine basis point is the expense ratio, the current yields, what is the current yields right now?

[SPEAKER_00]: I know it's gone up because the Fedorase rates, we have our three 3.61, it's probably going to rise closer to three and three quarters, and four percent probably by a year.

[SPEAKER_00]: And because once again, it's very short term is zero to three months,

[SPEAKER_00]: It's duration is 0.12, which means that it basically has about a one and a half month average duration, makes sense here to three months, right in the middle there.

[SPEAKER_00]: So it's constantly getting its portfolio turned over and able to reinvest it those higher rates when the Fed raises rates.

[SPEAKER_00]: So that's the positive here.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's all treasuries, very safe.

[SPEAKER_00]: You're not taking any credit risk there.

[SPEAKER_00]: I see S8.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's also very low expense here.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think eight nine basis points there, but you are investing in corporate bonds.

[SPEAKER_00]: Other types of looks like swap things like that.

[SPEAKER_00]: So you're taking some sort of credit risk.

[SPEAKER_00]: Let's see what the difference in.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, as you see those 4.160 like you said, if you live in.

[SPEAKER_00]: A state where you have high state taxes, and it's an taxable account, then you definitely wouldn't want to go with ICH over SKV, allowing it to worth the yield difference, you know, especially when you adjust for taxes, I would just keep it in SKV.

[SPEAKER_00]: JPST, this is, to a higher expense ratio, 18 basis points, and then it's yield is, what is it yield?

[SPEAKER_00]: 4.11, so kind of similar to ICSH, but you're actually taking on a little bit of duration, it's just a really short effect of maturity is one year, but it's not going to be as safe as I can also adjust to the higher interest rates.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, I still think SCOV is the best way to go, best resources reward, especially in a taxable account, but I think in most counts, it works very well.

[SPEAKER_00]: Let's keep things going and make it to interim.

[SPEAKER_04]: Hey guys, Jordan from Minnesota here.

[SPEAKER_04]: Good question for you, Kevin, you need one.

[SPEAKER_04]: You guys just go over your personal opinion on investing in the stock market for only rental properties.

[SPEAKER_04]: For me, I'm 32 years old.

[SPEAKER_04]: Right now, I only own my primary residence.

[SPEAKER_04]: Like, kind of been in debate with a couple of good buddies.

[SPEAKER_04]: And they're more so about real estate investments.

[SPEAKER_04]: And, you know, all the new taxes or even single family rental properties.

[SPEAKER_04]: And some kind of the opposite.

[SPEAKER_04]: great now I kind of just like investing in the stock market.

[SPEAKER_04]: I don't have any strength.

[SPEAKER_04]: I don't have to worry about something breaking and having to address those issues in my rental property.

[SPEAKER_04]: But you know I am considering possibly adding a one rental property to my portfolio here in the next five years.

[SPEAKER_04]: I love these your thoughts, kind of pros and cons of each.

[SPEAKER_04]: So what she has to appreciate it.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is a great question.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think something a lot of people

[SPEAKER_00]: Businesses out there that pitch real estate investing, there's a lot of people that do real estate investing and do very well, have been very well of less 30, 40 years.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then there's the equity side.

[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, we do that, we're focusing on that.

[SPEAKER_00]: And there's better, longer term growth there with, as you said, less headaches.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I think diversity is good and having some of the properties are probably good, but you wanna be very selective.

[SPEAKER_00]: And you want to just like buying a stock, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Or you have to make sure the fundamentals line up socially, even more so for real estate because it's not as liquid, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: You make a mistake on a stock, goes down 10%, 20%, you could sell it, be done with it, move on, find something better.

[SPEAKER_00]: These are real estate, things go south, you're stuck with it, maybe it's hard to sell,

[SPEAKER_00]: uh... you know you can even be okay taking a little bit of a loss on it uh... just to get the headache behind you but it might take three six nine twelve months to actually sell right so you have to run the numbers you ought to make sure the cap rates are reasonably high that's number one in this environment you know you could go back by corporate bonds at vergining north of six percent now easily in investment grade bonds

[SPEAKER_00]: going up only two, three years, four years.

[SPEAKER_00]: So you can lock in some pretty good yields without, like you said, the headache of being a landlord.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, there are some positives to rental real estate.

[SPEAKER_00]: You can easily get leverage on it.

[SPEAKER_00]: Doesn't increase the risk, but in general, as long as your cash flow is positive, then you should be good.

[SPEAKER_00]: And you don't have to manage it well, and it's in the right area, et cetera.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then there's a good appreciation aspect.

[SPEAKER_00]: So you can depreciate it.

[SPEAKER_00]: There's some tax benefits.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's something you want to talk more with your CPA.

[SPEAKER_00]: How does that balance out against your other income?

[SPEAKER_00]: And what is your tax rate?

[SPEAKER_00]: How much benefit is it really to you?

[SPEAKER_00]: That's another question.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I think Rens of Real Estate is great for the right people.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you want to be a landlord, if you need the tax breaks, if you're okay with a little bit of leverage, but you want to do that deep research.

[SPEAKER_00]: you don't want to be stuck with a bad property.

[SPEAKER_00]: So it's not a hands-off mailbox money type of endeavor, like most people think, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Passiving them all of that.

[SPEAKER_00]: Being a landlord is not passive, okay?

[SPEAKER_00]: And going forward,

[SPEAKER_00]: Going forward, you want to understand that it's not about price depreciation anymore.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's about cash flow in the real estate game.

[SPEAKER_00]: For 30, 40 years, you had, you had interest dropping and that created this tailwind to real estate prices.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think we're in that environment anymore.

[SPEAKER_00]: Could real estate prices go up over the next 20, 30 years.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think they will just have a much slower pace and probably at a negative real rate,

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, real estate prices might only go up two or three and you're net net, you're negative, right, on on growth there.

[SPEAKER_00]: So That's what I'm expecting going forward in a rising rate environment and so it makes it even more important once again.

[SPEAKER_00]: Do your research, don't rush into anything, make sure cash flow is very positive.

[SPEAKER_00]: Your cap rates north of by 6%, probably hopefully 7%, then it can make sense.

[SPEAKER_00]: But just be very patient.

[SPEAKER_00]: There's no need to rush into it right now.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think we're gonna go through a corrective period in real estate nationally.

[SPEAKER_00]: Those invest stock, I'm just inclined, we have one goal here, each and every week, they help you achieve your own version of financial freedom.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I work continues after this final breaks.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's questions in right now, it eight and eight nine chart.

[SPEAKER_03]: Justin Klein is here and ready to tackle your questions.

[SPEAKER_03]: I've heard you say multiple times that you prefer shorter duration Treasury Barnes.

[SPEAKER_03]: Can you explain to me why it is more advisable?

[SPEAKER_03]: Call in Vestock, 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_01]: Invest Talk.

[SPEAKER_01]: Tell your friends they can listen live, download the free podcast, or watch Invest Talk on our YouTube channel.

[SPEAKER_01]: And they can leave their finance and investment questions any time on 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_06]: Hey guys, Kevin from Southern California.

[SPEAKER_06]: Thank you for always answering our questions here.

[SPEAKER_06]: Today I'm wondering about the planet fitness.

[SPEAKER_06]: ticker is PLNT.

[SPEAKER_06]: I got assigned, I sold a put on Pondade and I got early assigned some chairs.

[SPEAKER_06]: So I'm trying to see if I should hang onto them or if you think there's a turnaround coming or if I should just take the loss and use that tapless towards up and out, appreciate your thoughts on this as always.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is initially what I was going to say, and maybe sell a put it, but you got you got put it at a much or what price, but it is near if it's a two week low, it's at $40 and 74 cents, now it's already down pretty dramatically from a higher end, 13 not that long ago earlier this year, and it's really all about their membership growth slowing now, I mean, if the numbers are to be that are expected kind of come in,

[SPEAKER_00]: Hey, it looks pretty cheap down here.

[SPEAKER_00]: You're talking about $3.25 cents expected in this year, $3.66 next year.

[SPEAKER_00]: And if you look at their cash flow, 261 million.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, here would be my question.

[SPEAKER_00]: They do have a good amount of debt, but it is termed out past 2036.

[SPEAKER_00]: They don't really have any near-term obligations.

[SPEAKER_00]: They have a 473 million short-term in cash.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, they have plenty of money and positive cash flow.

[SPEAKER_00]: No dividend there.

[SPEAKER_00]: What are they buying back shares?

[SPEAKER_00]: What are they doing at this cash flow?

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, starting to buy back shares.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's a good thing.

[SPEAKER_00]: So, I think it's overblown.

[SPEAKER_00]: I actually kind of like it.

[SPEAKER_00]: It gets forever outside of their planet fitness state.

[SPEAKER_00]: They run fitness facilities in pre-low cost membership.

[SPEAKER_00]: This isn't your equinoxes of the world or lifetimes of the world.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is cheap membership, you know.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think 30 dollars a month, 23 dollars a month, something like that.

[SPEAKER_00]: So their recent earnings had to do with shrinking margins because they had to do more promotions in order to get people on.

[SPEAKER_00]: But yeah, I think it's a cheap, I would hold it, actually.

[SPEAKER_00]: Let's go to Richard and Santa Clarita looking at Honeywell, H-O-N.

[SPEAKER_05]: Yes, hi, Justin.

[SPEAKER_05]: Thanks for taking my call.

[SPEAKER_05]: I wanted to ask you on Honeywell, you know, three, four months ago,

[SPEAKER_05]: a good place to invest in, you know, nothing that's going to, you know, go out rages, but, you know, steady and everything.

[SPEAKER_05]: Then they did the split between Honeywell International and Honeywell Aerospace.

[SPEAKER_05]: And if you had any shares of Honeywell, then half went to Honeywell, the other half went to Honeywell Aerospace.

[SPEAKER_05]: And

[SPEAKER_05]: The staff hasn't been doing so lately.

[SPEAKER_05]: The aerospace really went down and honeywell itself, the international, not doing what it was before.

[SPEAKER_05]: So I'm just wondering at this point, given this environment, this inflationary environment that we're in, it's always been kind of a good industrial company or everything.

[SPEAKER_05]: stick with and maybe invest in even at this point.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, this is an interesting one because, like you said, they spun off the aerospace with which probably unlocks in value.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if you have still have those shares or not, you know, you're getting more be pure play if you're in that area, if you're in Honeywell, international, you're getting more of, you know, industrial automation, automotive type of type of business.

[SPEAKER_00]: But it has good cash for the $4 billion in free cash flow on a $66 billion market cap.

[SPEAKER_00]: Let's see, I'm assuming their debt is termed out.

[SPEAKER_00]: But yeah, I mean, I do think it's relatively inexpensive, let's see, okay, actually.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm looking at this enterprise value, even though going forward.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, this is a complex one.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's not a name, I think there's just better within the space.

[SPEAKER_00]: Just to say that, it's not bad.

[SPEAKER_00]: But I would rather allocate money to more of a clear cut industrial play.

[SPEAKER_00]: And this one just has good amount of debt.

[SPEAKER_00]: It's not particularly cheap, actually, the more that I look at it.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so it doesn't make sense to be adding more money at these levels.

[SPEAKER_00]: Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, I'm Justin Klein, you remind me about Kate B Financial's Paralone Vesting, and we could trade for our clients, we could same trade for ourselves, same day, same price, same percentage.

[SPEAKER_00]: No front running, no special treatments, we invest right alongside our clients, we should have the same risk and potential for success, and you could learn more about heading over to in Vestonk.com.

[SPEAKER_00]: Please tell your friends a family, about a free podcast downloads, which we find any time, at iTunes or Spotify and Market calendars for October 24th, you are invited to join the KKB team

[SPEAKER_00]: The in-person Invest Talk Retirement Summit event is free of charge but you need to pre-register.

[SPEAKER_00]: Let's get over at Invest Talk.com.

[SPEAKER_00]: Independent thinking should success.

[SPEAKER_00]: This is Invest Talk.

[SPEAKER_03]: Invest talk is a trademark of KPP financial, because of the nature of the interactive dialogue inherent in the format of this program.

[SPEAKER_03]: It's important for the listener to understand that not all comments may will apply to them.

[SPEAKER_03]: Specifically, nothing sets shall be taken to be investment advice.

[SPEAKER_03]: or shell statements on this program be considered and offered to buy or sell security.

[SPEAKER_03]: Because such advice is rendered solely on an individual basis and at times will require that the investor review of perspectives before investing.

[SPEAKER_03]: Invest talk is a copyrighted program of client, Pavles, and Peasley Financial, a registered investment advisor firm which retains all rights.

[SPEAKER_03]: For more information regarding KPP's investment advisors, call 1-800-557-5461.

[SPEAKER_03]: Thank you for listening, and your comments and questions are welcome on our 24-hour listener line at 888-99 chart.