[SPEAKER_16]: This is a best-of-invest talk episode from KPP Financial.

[SPEAKER_16]: Listener questions will be answered and commentary provided by Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero.

[SPEAKER_13]: Let's go to a YouTube comment question, and Selenemary says, what do your thoughts on Forex trading understand?

[SPEAKER_13]: It can be quite risky, yet the US dollar is forecasted to go down, and the currencies like the Euro and the Anastrongly forecasted to go up.

[SPEAKER_13]: I don't hear many people talking about it.

[SPEAKER_13]: Well, first off, you're correct, it is very risky, and this because the general trend of the dollar over the coming years will likely be down, doesn't mean it's going to be down every year, and it depends on what currency you are talking about.

[SPEAKER_13]: Frankly, if you're going to short any currency, it would just be the occur in season buying hard assets.

[SPEAKER_13]: And I think that's a better way to go.

[SPEAKER_13]: And you you mentioned two currencies euro in the yen.

[SPEAKER_13]: Well, the euro's strong is the dollar, but the yen remains relatively weak against the dollar.

[SPEAKER_13]: So you really understand those dynamics.

[SPEAKER_13]: And trading forex is really a lot about technicals.

[SPEAKER_13]: It's a lot about understanding.

[SPEAKER_13]: flows, currency flows, trade flows, all of that.

[SPEAKER_13]: And so, for the novice investor, I highly advise against it.

[SPEAKER_13]: Nine and a ten currency trainers, blow them, solves up and they lose a bunch of money.

[SPEAKER_13]: So, I would not do it.

[SPEAKER_14]: Got James from New York.

[SPEAKER_14]: You had a question about gold?

[SPEAKER_14]: Yes, I do.

[SPEAKER_14]: They stick to my call.

[SPEAKER_14]: Sure, I'll get out of here.

[SPEAKER_05]: So, I wanted to know after today's speech at Jackson Hole,

[SPEAKER_05]: could re-expect maybe a pullback in gold and general particularly in the mining companies and if looking at the mining companies would there be a good entry point if gold does pull back just a 5% is 10% even realistic in some of the miners.

[SPEAKER_14]: Sure, great question.

[SPEAKER_14]: I mean, you know, you, I'm sure understand, and all of our listeners understand, because we talk about it a lot, that gold miners are essentially just a leverage bed on gold.

[SPEAKER_14]: So any gold move, gold being an inherently volatile commodity, is going to be accentuated in any of these miners.

[SPEAKER_14]: So, a 10, 15% pullback in these miners is absolutely possible.

[SPEAKER_14]: Now, this is just a speech from a Fed chair who

[SPEAKER_14]: In one breath has seemingly said, we're not gonna do forecasting and then does some forecasting.

[SPEAKER_14]: You know, this is a daily move that you can't really extrapolate onto a larger trend.

[SPEAKER_14]: I think when you're thinking about your gold allocations, the reason why we have been a net buyer in these dips is because the factors that are driving gold higher, i.e.

[SPEAKER_14]: fiscal deficits, the interests we're paying, exploding on our debt,

[SPEAKER_14]: Foreign governments wanting to move away from US dollar-denominated assets and more importantly kind of wheel away the US's ability to do financial sanctions.

[SPEAKER_14]: None of that is changing.

[SPEAKER_14]: You're seeing countries that haven't bought gold and a while continue to buy gold.

[SPEAKER_14]: So, yes, we could see a bit of a pullback.

[SPEAKER_14]: Am I going to extrapolate a trend from one speech in Jackson Hall from a guy that says he doesn't want a forecast?

[SPEAKER_14]: Probably not.

[SPEAKER_14]: Either way, we think gold should be

[SPEAKER_14]: macro trends.

[SPEAKER_14]: Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_14]: Have a great day.

[SPEAKER_06]: Hey, good evening guys.

[SPEAKER_06]: Long time listener.

[SPEAKER_06]: Dan, thank you for everything that you do.

[SPEAKER_06]: I'm calling with regard to allocation in my 401k.

[SPEAKER_06]: I've recently taken a position over the last three months in G.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.

[SPEAKER_06]: The current state of the market and the probability like we high interest rate hikes.

[SPEAKER_06]: The think I should take this opportunity to rebalance my 401k or do you think I should stay with the course and stay within the M-A-X at about 50% of my current 401k control fluid.

[SPEAKER_06]: Looking forward to the answer.

[SPEAKER_06]: Appreciate everything that you do guys.

[SPEAKER_13]: All right, VMAX, this is the Vanguard emerging market stock in the 50% that's a little high.

[SPEAKER_13]: They'll be honest with you, I've just one fun, especially emerging market funds, even though I like emerging markets.

[SPEAKER_13]: But as the dollar strength is a little bit based on what's going on with.

[SPEAKER_13]: The Fed rate path.

[SPEAKER_13]: That's gonna be an issue for merging markets.

[SPEAKER_13]: I don't know what the rest of your portfolio looks like and you 401k I don't know what your options are within your 401k, but here's what I would do for everybody if you have a 401k

[SPEAKER_13]: As I talked about, talked about many times so far this hour, which is this looks like a very important mark and inflection point that could end up being like 2020 to a big warning for the past couple of months that yeah, the AI hype is great, and you know, it's the momentum is feels good, but we know that these trends end at some point and there is a trigger and the triggers likely.

[SPEAKER_13]: pocket policy.

[SPEAKER_13]: So everyone out there should be taking this time to reassess their portfolio.

[SPEAKER_13]: What areas of the market are likely to inflect negatively if the Fed does go in that into a hiking stance?

[SPEAKER_13]: And which ones will inflect positively?

[SPEAKER_13]: And to me, this is the time to be moving into the names of the names of those sold off really over the past couple of months.

[SPEAKER_13]: I've seen health care names.

[SPEAKER_13]: that have sold off and I'm going, what is happening here?

[SPEAKER_13]: We've had a couple of names on our portfolio and they're down in a 15-ish per cent or so.

[SPEAKER_13]: Still up before in the healthcare space, which is saying, okay, we're still doing fine because this is more of a sector specific issue, but the earnings aren't affected.

[SPEAKER_13]: It's just money flowing out of the quote of unsafe for names.

[SPEAKER_13]: The boring names and into these hyperscalish.

[SPEAKER_13]: And so, if that flips and you're already seeing it now,

[SPEAKER_13]: I'm seeing so many names that are now rallying that had been relative under performance and we've been rebalancing our portfolios.

[SPEAKER_13]: We have a lot of those AI winners, a lot of the kind of nuts and bolts of AI data centers.

[SPEAKER_13]: Those are done extremely well.

[SPEAKER_13]: We've found some of the chip names, a lot of the big ones that have rallied recently.

[SPEAKER_13]: We've been trimming those.

[SPEAKER_13]: Oh, the past couple of weeks as well.

[SPEAKER_13]: This is that time.

[SPEAKER_13]: You must rebalance when you see this inflection point.

[SPEAKER_13]: So I would probably trim some of that, because it's 50% of your 401k.

[SPEAKER_13]: That's too much.

[SPEAKER_13]: This is where I say, this is my biggest issue with the 401k world is leaving up the average person to just invest their money when they don't really know how to properly create that allocation.

[SPEAKER_13]: That's one reason why we manage our client 401k is when we can and make sure they're aligned appropriately.

[SPEAKER_13]: So, yes, this is the time to absolutely rebounds.

[SPEAKER_16]: You are listening to an invest talk, best of call or questions compilation program.

[SPEAKER_16]: Your comments and questions are always welcome.

[SPEAKER_16]: Call anytime, 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_16]: That's 888-99, CH-A-R-T.

[SPEAKER_15]: This is a special investment talk, best of caller questions, compilation program.

[SPEAKER_15]: Remember, the investment talk phone lines never close.

[SPEAKER_15]: Please call with questions.

[SPEAKER_15]: 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_03]: Hi, Luke Burgess, and this is Alponzo from the Bay Area.

[SPEAKER_03]: Can you review the mechanics of positions?

[SPEAKER_03]: I've seen you in a concrete example and say, I have about a million dollar portfolio, and I'm bullish on that.

[SPEAKER_03]: Doc, say any illegal mind, thank you.

[SPEAKER_13]: Position sizing is just making sure that no one position is larger than a certain percentage of your portfolio.

[SPEAKER_13]: And then if things go well, it's trimming it back to your original target.

[SPEAKER_13]: So we like to limit our exposure to around 5% of anyone name an portfolio.

[SPEAKER_13]: If it does really well, you know, that might

[SPEAKER_13]: But then, you know, we start to push in seven, especially we're on to get that back down.

[SPEAKER_13]: We want to, we want to trim it back down to 5% or so, whatever our original target is.

[SPEAKER_13]: And sometimes if the market shifts, you lower that target all the way back down to, you know, three, two, three percent, maybe to let me position if something made you changes.

[SPEAKER_13]: That is the essence of position sizing and making sure that your target allocation is aligned

[SPEAKER_13]: Because easy to set an allocation, it's more challenging to update it regularly and monitor it.

[SPEAKER_13]: Okay, today's allocation and a year from now's allocation should probably different because the market dynamics are going to shift and you have to be willing and able to make those adjustments that's if you are being a bit more targeted with your allocations.

[SPEAKER_13]: as opposed to just being a index investor rate.

[SPEAKER_13]: That's what we do as professionals.

[SPEAKER_13]: We are constantly monitoring the macro environment and then adjusting our target allocations.

[SPEAKER_13]: And it probably won't change dramatically in one year.

[SPEAKER_13]: But at the margins, most likely will.

[SPEAKER_13]: So hopefully that helped give you some insight on position sizing.

[SPEAKER_14]: Let's move back to the investment voice bank.

[SPEAKER_14]: You know the number 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_11]: I've got a question with regards to ETFs.

[SPEAKER_11]: I was thinking about a thick of a financial ETF, but I think it's kind of an uncertain environment right now.

[SPEAKER_11]: It's had a nice run, but I'm not too sure.

[SPEAKER_11]: It's something good to get into now.

[SPEAKER_11]: So second, maybe you'd be better to get into health-related medical related ETF.

[SPEAKER_11]: I'm looking at different ones.

[SPEAKER_11]: So there's X, LV, VHT, Biotech with the IPB.

[SPEAKER_11]: or maybe pharmaceutical, when like XPH, when seeing you miss an input on which it would think would be a good ETF to get into and appreciate it.

[SPEAKER_11]: Thank you very much.

[SPEAKER_11]: Bye.

[SPEAKER_14]: It's a great question.

[SPEAKER_14]: You know, I think people often try and times sector rotation in a way that they leave themselves fully out of individual sectors.

[SPEAKER_14]: So I don't think it's ever a great idea to be fully divested

[SPEAKER_14]: from a sector's importance financials.

[SPEAKER_14]: I think there's always, always places that are stronger within any individuals within any individual sector compared to other parts of it.

[SPEAKER_14]: And I think that insurance with higher rate boosts and investment income and premiums reprised annually, and the fact that they're a bit recession resilient, insurance ETFs can be can be solid.

[SPEAKER_14]: I think exchange and market infrastructure plays that profit from volatility in both directions.

[SPEAKER_14]: They have different return profiles, big banks.

[SPEAKER_14]: wider net interest margins, but, you know, you have some risks there.

[SPEAKER_14]: And then the ones that I probably would mood most likely not want to be near right now, FinTech, high rate sensitivity.

[SPEAKER_14]: I also think that healthcare is a good place to be.

[SPEAKER_14]: It has and was one of the sources for a long time of money rotating into tech.

[SPEAKER_14]: We've seen a bit of a turnaround there.

[SPEAKER_14]: There are pharmaceutical names that are not really well.

[SPEAKER_14]: They're medtech names that have done really well.

[SPEAKER_14]: Life's science is names that have done really well as we see shifting in consumer patterns.

[SPEAKER_14]: So that's to say, the answer to the question is at a high level.

[SPEAKER_14]: I think there are great opportunities.

[SPEAKER_14]: Once you dive into the individual sectors such that I don't think completely leaving out financials or healthcare at any time is a wise decision for your portfolio.

[SPEAKER_14]: Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_13]: Let's go pivot to another voicemail question now.

[SPEAKER_08]: This has changed from New York.

[SPEAKER_08]: I just have a question about shorting a stock versus buying puts on a stock.

[SPEAKER_08]: I know that both bearish sentiments, but what is the fundamental difference between these two and why would someone do one versus the other, which one is more profitable, which one is more risky?

[SPEAKER_08]: just wanted to understand this more.

[SPEAKER_08]: Thank you so much for having a great day.

[SPEAKER_13]: This is a this is a great question because there are different risks here involved.

[SPEAKER_13]: So with a shorting of stock is your selling it today and you're hoping to buy it back later at a lower price.

[SPEAKER_13]: You're borrowing it from the broker, you're selling it today, you're

[SPEAKER_13]: hoping to buy a back later at a lower price.

[SPEAKER_13]: That's the simple mechanism.

[SPEAKER_13]: The risk there is that it could go up indefinitely.

[SPEAKER_13]: There's no limit, there's no limit on how high it can go.

[SPEAKER_13]: So you can get short squeeze out of it.

[SPEAKER_13]: If it keeps going up, you're going to lose the time zone of money, maybe shorted at $50, it goes to $500.

[SPEAKER_13]: You lose 10x your money.

[SPEAKER_13]: but then you short it, right?

[SPEAKER_13]: That's the potential, no, that's very rare, but that could happen.

[SPEAKER_13]: So that's number one for short selling.

[SPEAKER_13]: When buying a put, the good news about a put is you have very limited downside.

[SPEAKER_13]: Whatever you paid for that put, that's your downside.

[SPEAKER_13]: You go to zero.

[SPEAKER_13]: But the odds of a go to zero, going to zero are fairly high.

[SPEAKER_13]: Most options expire worthless.

[SPEAKER_13]: So depending on what strike you pick and expiration,

[SPEAKER_13]: You could certainly lose your principle, but you can make a ton, right?

[SPEAKER_13]: If you say this locks a 50 by a 40 strike put, and it goes to 20, well, you made $20 on that per whatever premium you paid.

[SPEAKER_13]: Right, because you go basically sell it for 40 and buy it for 20.

[SPEAKER_13]: The rest though is what is called faded decay.

[SPEAKER_13]: Over time,

[SPEAKER_13]: the time value, you lose money.

[SPEAKER_13]: With a shorting a stock, you never have to worry about that.

[SPEAKER_13]: There's no time decay there.

[SPEAKER_13]: You can hold that short for as long as you want as long as you're not squeezed out of it.

[SPEAKER_13]: So I like the idea of buying a put, but you want to give it time, you actually want to buy a lot of time.

[SPEAKER_13]: probably six months to a year plus for your thesis to play out and then there's kind of leverage involved there.

[SPEAKER_13]: So different risks, but I like the way you're thinking of which one is best for you.

[SPEAKER_13]: So do a little more research and figure out what makes sense for your portfolio.

[SPEAKER_16]: You are listening to an invest talk best of call or questions compilation program.

[SPEAKER_16]: Your comments and questions are always welcome call anytime 88899 chart.

[SPEAKER_16]: That's 88899 CHART.

[SPEAKER_16]: You are listening to an invest talk, Vest of Caller Questions compilation program.

[SPEAKER_16]: Your comments and questions are always welcome.

[SPEAKER_16]: Call anytime.

[SPEAKER_16]: 88899 chart.

[SPEAKER_16]: That's 88899 CHART.

[SPEAKER_17]: Okay, this has spread us from Tom Desert from SmallSync use so much for your show.

[SPEAKER_17]: Question about investing in industrials.

[SPEAKER_17]: So right now, outside of my I-Rub and my 401k, mostly my investments are in tech and energy and that there may be a growing momentum in terms of industrials and if I am looking to just make some small investments in industrials,

[SPEAKER_17]: where would be a good place to find?

[SPEAKER_17]: Thanks so much, so keep doing what you do.

[SPEAKER_14]: Well, it's a great question, because often times people don't realize really how under-diversified they are.

[SPEAKER_14]: Now, for you, you have a lot of exposure to tech and energy.

[SPEAKER_14]: And right now those two things are heading in the opposite directions because of structurally what is happening.

[SPEAKER_14]: But the core of this, how to invest in industrials, I think is really important question.

[SPEAKER_14]: For most people, the best way to invest in industrials is first to have their primary exposure be a broad, based industrials, E.F. Why?

[SPEAKER_14]: Because it touches on a multitude of companies, under a multitude of themes.

[SPEAKER_14]: For us, however,

[SPEAKER_14]: We think that any time you look into a specific sector, if you're diving in deeper than that broad-based index, broad-based ETF, you want to think about really what are the best themes within that individual sector.

[SPEAKER_14]: So for industrials, it's a pretty wide sector, probably wider than you'd think.

[SPEAKER_14]: Rearament, European rearament, global defense, is a good theme.

[SPEAKER_14]: A eye-physical infrastructure, grid modernization,

[SPEAKER_14]: re-shoring automation.

[SPEAKER_14]: These are just a handful of themes that are likely to drive this sector forward.

[SPEAKER_14]: So to sum it up for most people, you want to have the bulk of your allocation be that broad-based exposure, but from there maybe dive into the specific themes of that sector that are likely to be the drivers of returns into the future.

[SPEAKER_14]: Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_13]: Let's keep things moving and roll in another listen to a question now.

[SPEAKER_02]: Hey guys, this is Brett from UJRZ.

[SPEAKER_02]: I had a question about my four of three feet plan.

[SPEAKER_02]: I have a four of three feet plan through UJRZ teachers association.

[SPEAKER_02]: I also took out a loan against that, loan 6% but four of that 6% goes back to myself.

[SPEAKER_02]: I wanted to buy a boat this summer.

[SPEAKER_02]: My family loves it, and I let the fishing, I know it's not the greatest investment.

[SPEAKER_02]: probably the worst, but I did it anyway.

[SPEAKER_02]: I feed with equitable or a little higher than I'd like.

[SPEAKER_02]: When I still be able to transfer that 403V to somebody else, even though I took out a loan on it, I don't really know how that works.

[SPEAKER_02]: If you have any information, I'd appreciate it.

[SPEAKER_02]: I'll be listening on the podcast.

[SPEAKER_02]: Thank you.

[SPEAKER_13]: Well, the simple answer is no, you, you have to pay off that loan until you, or before you can transfer that four or three B, so that happens at four or one K's, any of those, those workplace retirement accounts, because the basically that loan is collateralized by that account.

[SPEAKER_13]: now could be wrong.

[SPEAKER_13]: There are unique circumstances than this for the 401k retirement world.

[SPEAKER_13]: So I would talk to your HR department before I get a, you know, you have a final decision on that, but the point is I've never seen it where you can transfer these retirement accounts for three B's 401k, et cetera, while they're still alone attached to it.

[SPEAKER_14]: I'll tackle a fresh listener

[SPEAKER_12]: Just have a question about saving for a house currently.

[SPEAKER_12]: I have a brokerage account that has about 90 grand in it and I have 70 of it in short-term treasuries which is Esgov and then I have another 20 in VT.

[SPEAKER_12]: I wanted to keep my, you know, obviously my money is as safe as possible and I know the short-term treasuries are a great way to do that.

[SPEAKER_12]: But I didn't know if like all of that should be in short-term treasuries or if I should be taking a little bit of risk with it.

[SPEAKER_12]: I probably have like a two to three-year time horizon.

[SPEAKER_12]: I know that hasn't market is going to go through a little correctional period here.

[SPEAKER_12]: I wanted to get your inions of what I should do in the meantime.

[SPEAKER_12]: Great.

[SPEAKER_12]: Thanks.

[SPEAKER_12]: Bye.

[SPEAKER_14]: Yes, let's attack this from multiple angles.

[SPEAKER_14]: So first, housing market is going to go through correction.

[SPEAKER_14]: Maybe, I mean, there's early signs that were starting to transition from a seller's market into a buyer's market, how houses are staying listed for longer prices are falling.

[SPEAKER_14]: Could you in the next two to three years move into a position where you're better off than before?

[SPEAKER_14]: Only of housing prices fall, right?

[SPEAKER_14]: You need to bring new capacity online, which takes time, but it means rates probably aren't going to budge much.

[SPEAKER_14]: So you're only hope here is that housing supply opens up either from new homes or existing homes that come onto the market are actually so.

[SPEAKER_14]: But I do agree, things are starting to open up a bit.

[SPEAKER_14]: Now, the next thing you got to think about is, what is your time horizon?

[SPEAKER_14]: You mentioned two to three years.

[SPEAKER_14]: We actually answered a question on Tuesday about how one might want to think about this.

[SPEAKER_14]: But the other part of it that I don't really think we talked about is how much what do you need?

[SPEAKER_14]: If you are close to your goal.

[SPEAKER_14]: Then certainly you can take on less risk.

[SPEAKER_14]: If you're further away from your goal, in order to meet that goal, you might need to take on a little bit more.

[SPEAKER_14]: And that doesn't mean, hey, let's take all of my housing money and throw it in microcap chip names.

[SPEAKER_14]: But it does mean taking on more meaning for risk in order to raise your potential for higher returns.

[SPEAKER_14]: Here's another question that you need to answer.

[SPEAKER_14]: Do you have to buy this house in two to three years?

[SPEAKER_14]: Are you doing this as an opportune thing?

[SPEAKER_14]: Or is this an necessity?

[SPEAKER_14]: If it's a necessity, then you really need that money to be available.

[SPEAKER_14]: If we can push this out to four or five, wait for the housing market to come back.

[SPEAKER_14]: That gives you more ability to take on a risk.

[SPEAKER_14]: So this is a deeply personal question.

[SPEAKER_14]: We actually talked, I talked with one of our clients about this today.

[SPEAKER_14]: This is something we advise on for clients as well.

[SPEAKER_14]: So if you have a specific situation where we can really dive and deeper, I certainly encourage you to sign up for a portfolio review because knowing everything about your financial situation is one of the inherent requirements before giving you an answer of how much risk you should be taking in your portfolio

[SPEAKER_14]: Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_16]: This is an invest talk best of caller questions compilation program.

[SPEAKER_16]: Your comments and questions are always welcome.

[SPEAKER_16]: Call anytime 88899 chart that's 88899 CHART.

[SPEAKER_13]: At KPP Financial, Accountability means more than advice.

[SPEAKER_13]: It means we invest alongside you through our parallel investing approach.

[SPEAKER_13]: When we recommend an investment for clients, one or more KPP principles invest their own capital at the same time.

[SPEAKER_13]: Same day, same price, same percentage.

[SPEAKER_13]: If your portfolio moves, ours does too.

[SPEAKER_13]: That is alignment.

[SPEAKER_13]: That is transparency.

[SPEAKER_13]: That is the KPP difference.

[SPEAKER_13]: Visit www.investalk.com to get your free portfolio review.

[SPEAKER_14]: All right, why don't we drop in a fresh voice bank question from 888-99 chart?

[SPEAKER_10]: Hello, in this talk, Jenny from Denmark.

[SPEAKER_10]: I'm looking at adding some gold to my portfolio's following your advice on all with the portfolio's strategy that I'm really keen on working on.

[SPEAKER_10]: So thanks to that advice in my last call.

[SPEAKER_10]: Now, I'm looking at

[SPEAKER_10]: physical gold versus owning stocks that sell gold or profit from gold in some way.

[SPEAKER_10]: So take a look at PPSB, I share physical gold in T.C.

[SPEAKER_10]: What's the difference between owning a stock within the gold industry or any GF that consists of physical gold because there's

[SPEAKER_10]: At the moment, I'd rather hold some gold stocks as I continue on my way to creating the all with the portfolio.

[SPEAKER_10]: So thank you for your show or the listening.

[SPEAKER_10]: Thank you, bye.

[SPEAKER_14]: So sounds like what you're actually asking is whether or not you want to invest in a physical gold holding ETF or a company that is a business that profits are gold.

[SPEAKER_14]: Now, the way it was phrase, it kind of sounded like holding physical gold bars, but I don't think that's part of your question.

[SPEAKER_14]: So we'll talk about these gold ETFs and also talk about gold stocks and a little bit of differences.

[SPEAKER_14]: Now, for your physical gold ETFs, you have, or rather, they have gold bars that are sitting in a vault.

[SPEAKER_14]: Are you own?

[SPEAKER_14]: the metal itself.

[SPEAKER_14]: It moves one to one with spot goals.

[SPEAKER_14]: So gold is up 10%.

[SPEAKER_14]: The ETF is up 10%.

[SPEAKER_14]: There's no management risk, operational risk, no dividend.

[SPEAKER_14]: It can't go bankrupt.

[SPEAKER_14]: You can't have earnings misses.

[SPEAKER_14]: It is the simplest

[SPEAKER_14]: possible gold exposure when you're looking for gold is really pure insurance gold is an asset class or gold is a hedge.

[SPEAKER_14]: Now the cost you pay for this is this management for you mentioned.

[SPEAKER_14]: Some of them are a bit more expensive.

[SPEAKER_14]: Some of them are far less expensive.

[SPEAKER_14]: But if you think about it, it is essentially paying for a holding physical gold without having to store it yourself.

[SPEAKER_14]: That's really what this management fee is for.

[SPEAKER_14]: You should really think about it as.

[SPEAKER_14]: Now, when you're owning a gold stock, which for most people is, you know, minor streamers, some of these royalty companies, you're owning a business that profits are gold.

[SPEAKER_14]: You're not owning the metal itself.

[SPEAKER_14]: And just like any business, you're going to have operating leverage.

[SPEAKER_14]: You could have a situation where gold's up 10% and the miners up 20 or up 30 because

[SPEAKER_14]: costs are relatively fixed, so any increase in gold prices is going to have a multiplicative effect on the revenue and earnings of those companies.

[SPEAKER_14]: But volatility and leverage works both ways.

[SPEAKER_14]: So if gold is down 10, you're down 20, you're down 30.

[SPEAKER_14]: these companies can pay dividends.

[SPEAKER_14]: They also have operational risk though.

[SPEAKER_14]: There are all the time you have labor strikes in mind.

[SPEAKER_14]: You have mining accidents.

[SPEAKER_14]: You have permitting delays.

[SPEAKER_14]: You have cost inflation.

[SPEAKER_14]: You have legislative regulatory risk.

[SPEAKER_14]: And so owning these companies are a bit more volatile than owning the asset class which is already inherently volatile.

[SPEAKER_14]: But they can also be mismanaged.

[SPEAKER_14]: They can have bad acquisitions, cost overruns, things that destroy value even as gold moves higher.

[SPEAKER_14]: And so I would say if you want portfolio insurance, not just to trade, if you're hedging against inflation, currency, debasement, if you want zero company specific risk, right?

[SPEAKER_14]: If you're looking to have a core gold allocation, that's kind of where you would

[SPEAKER_14]: own a physical gold ETF.

[SPEAKER_14]: Whereas if you're bullish on gold and you want amplified upside, if you want some income, again, because physical gold pays nothing, if you're comfortable with the higher volatility and higher risk, then that's when you'd want to own a gold stock.

[SPEAKER_14]: Either way, I think getting gold exposure, some gold exposure in portfolio, certainly in this type of an environment is a good way to go.

[SPEAKER_14]: Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_13]: Now let's keep things moving and play another listen a question now.

[SPEAKER_18]: My question is about using stop orders to lock in profits and just protect my portfolio in general for market so off.

[SPEAKER_18]: Are there any rules of thumb when using stop orders when selling any drawbacks of the strategy?

[SPEAKER_13]: Thanks, love the show.

[SPEAKER_13]: Thank you.

[SPEAKER_13]: Well, first I would probably say I would only trail in stop, which means that as the mark the stock makes new highs, you're going to move up that stop.

[SPEAKER_13]: And you want that to be different for every stock.

[SPEAKER_13]: Because a 5% pullback in Apple, sorry, let's say proctor and gamble.

[SPEAKER_13]: is more extreme than something like a 5% pullback in in video, which can happen in any given day.

[SPEAKER_13]: So make sure your stops more law aligned with probably a moving average.

[SPEAKER_13]: Usually when a stock's in an uptrend, it's holding a particular moving average.

[SPEAKER_13]: And maybe the 58 moving average might be the 100 in moving average, whatever that moving average might be, that's where you probably want to keep the put the stop or a little bit below that.

[SPEAKER_13]: right, maybe moving average minus 1%, something like that.

[SPEAKER_13]: A lot of times it'll hit the moving average, go below for a short period of time and then rally.

[SPEAKER_13]: So that's, to me, the better type of stop that you're going to set for a name is used technical levels.

[SPEAKER_13]: And once again, that's going to differ depending on

[SPEAKER_13]: What company you're talking about?

[SPEAKER_15]: Invest talk is ready 24-7 for your finance and investment questions.

[SPEAKER_15]: My five-year-old son and I listen to your podcast every night, so thank you very much for putting it on.

[SPEAKER_15]: Justin Klein is here and ready to tackle your questions.

[SPEAKER_07]: Is it a good idea to sell your losses in a raw IRA and just use whatever you have left to reinvest in the better stock?

[SPEAKER_17]: I'm wondering what you thought about this read is it would be a good time to get in?

[SPEAKER_00]: I wanted to pick your brain about Apple.

[SPEAKER_00]: What did you think about their earnings call?

[SPEAKER_00]: Is this a good time to ask for my position?

[SPEAKER_15]: Don't forget to call.

[SPEAKER_15]: Invest talk.

[SPEAKER_15]: 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_14]: Alright, let's take a look, really quickly at this YouTube question, and it says it's a breakdown on how inflation erodes portfolios.

[SPEAKER_14]: Great question.

[SPEAKER_14]: So the question says, can you please do a breakdown on how inflation erodes your portfolios and the importance of compounding your over your inflation rates with your contributions even when the amount exceeds the max contribution limits.

[SPEAKER_14]: Thank you for all you teach.

[SPEAKER_14]: Awesome.

[SPEAKER_14]: So, you know, I think that

[SPEAKER_14]: People often think about their returns, right?

[SPEAKER_14]: Your portfolios are turning eight, 10%, but inflation is three, meaning your real return is closer to four, closer to seven.

[SPEAKER_14]: You know, and it's not simply the eight minus three because of the compounding.

[SPEAKER_14]: That means that nearly more of your gains than you realize are being lost here.

[SPEAKER_14]: Because at 3% inflation, something that cost you $100 today, cost $181 in 20 years, $243.

[SPEAKER_14]: Inflation compounds just like your returns do.

[SPEAKER_14]: And so the real key here is you need to focus on maxing those areas of your portfolio.

[SPEAKER_14]: because you have to fight against the compounding of inflation.

[SPEAKER_14]: And a higher inflationary environment, contributing more is even more important than an environment that we saw in the 2010s.

[SPEAKER_13]: Let's go pivot and answer a question that came in via our website.

[SPEAKER_13]: It says longtime listener, first time question, article in Wall Street Journal seems to say some big tech earnings are house of cards as it includes unrealized stock.

[SPEAKER_13]: Investment gains, how can one spot that what reported earnings numbers do not include those ethereal earnings?

[SPEAKER_13]: Well, this goes back to making adjustments in the footnotes.

[SPEAKER_13]: This is something you learn in.

[SPEAKER_13]: when you get licensed, but understanding how to adjust for the footnote.

[SPEAKER_13]: So there are something called adjusted earnings where it's that's a non-operating earnings.

[SPEAKER_13]: So that's what I'd be looking at non-operating, sorry, operating income.

[SPEAKER_13]: So excluding non-operating income.

[SPEAKER_13]: You could look at operating free cash flows well.

[SPEAKER_13]: That's another way to weed out whether it actually is

[SPEAKER_13]: real earnings or cash from operations.

[SPEAKER_13]: If you look at the cash flow statement, for example, that's where you want to see continue to grow.

[SPEAKER_13]: So if I look at, just look at cash from operations 130 billion.

[SPEAKER_13]: Now, the continues to go up, but we know that cash from investing activities is deeply negative.

[SPEAKER_13]: Now, at negative 139 billion.

[SPEAKER_13]: So that's going the other way.

[SPEAKER_13]: So those are the kind of the line items I'd be looking at on the income statement and the cash flow statement and that would give me a clear picture of the real earnings trajectory.

[SPEAKER_13]: But yes, there are, I wouldn't say it's complete fugacy.

[SPEAKER_13]: I would say that it's just something that you have to account for.

[SPEAKER_13]: And I do agree that we are probably near peak earnings.

[SPEAKER_13]: The question is, is it just love a lot of these.

[SPEAKER_13]: growth levels to you see some sort of major deceleration or is it minor but it's minor the market can chop around and empower through to eventually if it rolls over an earnest this is more of a one-time flash in the pan well yeah I think more downside is to come

[SPEAKER_15]: Got a question for Justin or Luke?

[SPEAKER_15]: You're the best person to ask it.

[SPEAKER_07]: Is it a good idea to sell your losses in a raw IRA and just use whatever you have left to reinvest into better stocks?

[SPEAKER_15]: Invest talk is ready 24-7.

[SPEAKER_15]: I would really appreciate if you could give me an entry point for a company called Metronic M.D.

[SPEAKER_15]: Pete.

[SPEAKER_15]: Call Invest Talk 888-99 chart or post your questions on the Invest Talk YouTube channel.

[SPEAKER_13]: Let's go answer it one more call a question.

[SPEAKER_19]: Yeah, John here from Lakeland, Florida, my question is that is it better to take a loss and sell the stock before it goes to zero or is it better to allow the stock to go to zero or doesn't really matter either way.

[SPEAKER_19]: Just trying to figure out the best way to recoup as much of my losses on these stocks as possible.

[SPEAKER_19]: I hope it makes some sense here.

[SPEAKER_19]: Look forward to hearing your insight.

[SPEAKER_19]: Appreciate you guys.

[SPEAKER_13]: Well you know the best way to make up a loss is to take that capital and put it elsewhere.

[SPEAKER_13]: This is one of the, one of the biggest flaws the average investor has in their psyche.

[SPEAKER_13]: The psychological thing, we all wanna get even.

[SPEAKER_13]: We've never wanna crystallize a loss.

[SPEAKER_13]: There's always that hope that it will turn around, but that's not how good investing works.

[SPEAKER_13]: You need to make sure your capital is being deployed effectively, consistently.

[SPEAKER_13]: Not sitting there, wasting away in a stock that's just not performing in a company that's not performing.

[SPEAKER_13]: So if you're down, you don't wait to go to zero, you say, okay, it's down.

[SPEAKER_13]: Something change is the business.

[SPEAKER_13]: Maybe maybe the market is telling you something that my thesis was wrong or something changed about the business.

[SPEAKER_13]: And I need to move on.

[SPEAKER_13]: Because there's something called opportunity cost.

[SPEAKER_13]: This is the case for everything in your life.

[SPEAKER_13]: Every second of your life, you're experiencing opportunity costs.

[SPEAKER_13]: You're doing one thing, you could be doing something else.

[SPEAKER_13]: And that's the same with capital.

[SPEAKER_13]: You have money stuck in something that's not doing well.

[SPEAKER_13]: They're opportunity costs of that.

[SPEAKER_13]: You can go take that money and put it elsewhere.

[SPEAKER_13]: So that's how you make a bag, you don't just sit there, hoping and bring hope is not a strategy.

[SPEAKER_13]: Taking that money and redeploying into something

[SPEAKER_13]: is.

[SPEAKER_13]: And that's what you need to do.

[SPEAKER_13]: Take the loss.

[SPEAKER_13]: Hopefully it's in a taxable account.

[SPEAKER_13]: You can take the loss.

[SPEAKER_13]: So you can offset that against gains elsewhere.

[SPEAKER_13]: You can maybe carry for $3,000 a year to offset your income.

[SPEAKER_13]: For example, however, ends up for you.

[SPEAKER_13]: But the bottom line is no, you don't just wait.

[SPEAKER_13]: You don't just let it waste away because you're wasting the opportunity elsewhere.

[SPEAKER_13]: So it move on.

[SPEAKER_13]: It's okay.

[SPEAKER_13]: It

[SPEAKER_13]: best investors in the world.

[SPEAKER_13]: Make mistakes.

[SPEAKER_13]: They lose money on certain investments.

[SPEAKER_13]: That's how this works until you realize that you won't be able to maximize the capital that you have.

[SPEAKER_16]: On radio, on YouTube, streaming live on at vestalk.com.

[SPEAKER_16]: My question today is about the HME Equipment Services Inc. And for our podcast subscribers, if you're willing to take the risk in vestalk, if you're okay with that risk, with host and financial advisor, Justin Klein, and that volatility, go for it.

[SPEAKER_16]: And go host and portfolio manager, Luke Guerrero.

[SPEAKER_16]: This company's fall in like a rock, it's down 52% in vestalk.

[SPEAKER_16]: Every body wants a secure, financial future.

[SPEAKER_16]: Richard, you have a question about T-O-L, but getting there takes strategy, discipline, and the right information.

[SPEAKER_13]: What are what you think of the price of it?

[SPEAKER_13]: Go to Chris in Maine, looking at I-E-X.

[SPEAKER_04]: Hey Justin, I own it, just seeing what you thought of it.

[SPEAKER_16]: Invest talk is made better by listener contributions.

[SPEAKER_16]: So don't forget to call 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_09]: Good morning, this is Randy the Iowa trucker.

[SPEAKER_09]: Just have a quick question about grip dividend reinvestment program.

[SPEAKER_09]: I know that situations change from time to time, so I just like to update what is your current advice or recommendation for anybody interested in reinvesting?

[SPEAKER_09]: Or should they let it go to the sweep accounts and focus it on a particular part of their portfolio at the time?

[SPEAKER_09]: I hope that made sense.

[SPEAKER_09]: You have a great program.

[SPEAKER_09]: Thank you very much.

[SPEAKER_14]: Dividend at reinvestment plans.

[SPEAKER_14]: That is what a drip stands for.

[SPEAKER_14]: And what that means is that when a dividend hits, it will automatically buy more shares of the same stock or in the case of each

[SPEAKER_14]: Now, compare that to a sweep, that is where dividends land in a money market or cash account, where you as the investor will decide what you want to do with it.

[SPEAKER_14]: Now, the case for a drip is it is essentially going to be compounding on autopilot.

[SPEAKER_14]: It is automatic dollar cost averaging.

[SPEAKER_14]: That is effectively

[SPEAKER_14]: What a drip is.

[SPEAKER_14]: It removes the temptation to spend evidence.

[SPEAKER_14]: There are no commissions or transaction costs when you have those reinvested shares.

[SPEAKER_14]: And so if you're a long term by a hold investor.

[SPEAKER_14]: It can make a lot of sense if you wanted to own more of the stock anyway that you would buy it through this drip rather than buying it with cash from the sweep.

[SPEAKER_14]: It's that didn't forget it.

[SPEAKER_14]: There is zero effort required.

[SPEAKER_14]: Now the flip side, why would one want to put it in a sweep?

[SPEAKER_14]: Well, more control, the rebalancing tool you void buying more of an over concentrated position tax management, right?

[SPEAKER_14]: Deep drips created dozens of tiny tax loss at different cost bases.

[SPEAKER_14]: And cashweeps right now are paying some pretty sweet, you know, juicy yields in the current environment with money markets paying four and five percent.

[SPEAKER_14]: I think there's less urgency to immediately reinvest frankly, and any time you do get these dividends, although again, it's great to be set it and forget it automatic dollar cost averaging.

[SPEAKER_14]: Think you're missing out on opportunities elsewhere.

[SPEAKER_14]: So right now when rates are higher, I think the case of being in drips is probably lower than it has been over the past decade.

[SPEAKER_14]: Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_16]: You are listening to an invest talk, best of call or questions compilation program.

[SPEAKER_16]: Your comments and questions are always welcome.

[SPEAKER_16]: Call anytime, 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_16]: That's 888-99 CHART.

[SPEAKER_16]: This is a compilation program, but the Invest talk voice bank never closes.

[SPEAKER_16]: Call anytime with your questions.

[SPEAKER_16]: 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_13]: Let's play a new listener question now for 888-99 chart.

[SPEAKER_10]: Hello.

[SPEAKER_10]: We're talking about this as a journey from Denmark going again.

[SPEAKER_10]: I have a question about which sectors to look forward.

[SPEAKER_10]: This point.

[SPEAKER_10]: not already over wait or exposed to go.

[SPEAKER_10]: I also have a lot of oil.

[SPEAKER_10]: I have listened to your thesis that in the fall.

[SPEAKER_10]: There may be some worse to call the market will go down, perhaps at the usually dozen of the fall.

[SPEAKER_10]: I'm here, you said that bonds right now isn't a good idea as a very delio.

[SPEAKER_10]: Could you guide me as to which sectors for small investments, say $2,000 at this point?

[SPEAKER_10]: I should look for because I'm anticipating a kind of down the market on the short term, but I can't seem to find other than gold and oil this year.

[SPEAKER_10]: Do you agree that this is so, if you happen, it's all to be very happy.

[SPEAKER_10]: Thank you very much.

[SPEAKER_13]: Well, I can tell you the sectors that we're focusing on materials, which is kind of within the goal and silver, but there are many others, talking about copper all the time, that are also

[SPEAKER_13]: attractive over the long term.

[SPEAKER_13]: So I like materials in general.

[SPEAKER_13]: So I'd probably broaden that out.

[SPEAKER_13]: Now, the energy's patch.

[SPEAKER_13]: I said this before.

[SPEAKER_13]: I'm not.

[SPEAKER_13]: I think that there is near-term.

[SPEAKER_13]: Well, it'll probably go higher because of the quagmire that we find ourselves in in the Middle East.

[SPEAKER_13]: But I don't find that to be a great long-term place.

[SPEAKER_13]: I'm talking about like oil and gas, EMP companies, things like that.

[SPEAKER_13]: I'm going to try their own pipeline companies, refineries,

[SPEAKER_13]: I'll turn to the energy type of the type of businesses, et cetera.

[SPEAKER_13]: But then outside of that, industrials, easy one.

[SPEAKER_13]: Very easy.

[SPEAKER_13]: We're still growing, there's a lot of government spending, there's a lot of demand for industrial products that go into AI data centers is going to be secular demand for that as well as maintenance products, for those data centers as well.

[SPEAKER_13]: So industrials and industrials, industrials, also, like I said, healthcare.

[SPEAKER_13]: Healthcare, I think has some good tailwinds, but I'm not a big fan of utilities long-term, they're there.

[SPEAKER_13]: They're their bond proxies and bonds aren't doing well.

[SPEAKER_13]: They're also relatively low.

[SPEAKER_13]: Returns long term because they kind of, there's a limit on their profitability due to regulation.

[SPEAKER_13]: Defense consumer staples has been struggling a bit in the bits of inflation and also bond proxies.

[SPEAKER_13]: Consumer sickle also has been struggling as the K-A-Shit Economy continues to plow ahead.

[SPEAKER_13]: until something breaks there.

[SPEAKER_13]: But yeah, so that same materials, energy, or sorry, materials, industrials, and health care would be the places I would be.

[SPEAKER_16]: Every investor is working to build a secure financial future.

[SPEAKER_01]: Would this be an opportunity time to get into annuities?

[SPEAKER_16]: Everyone's situation is different.

[SPEAKER_16]: Get your thoughts on CRM, Salesforce.

[SPEAKER_16]: And so are their questions.

[SPEAKER_16]: And I was just calling for your assessment of Blackstone incorporated.

[SPEAKER_16]: 24-7, Rain or Shine in Vestock is made better by the power of you.

[SPEAKER_14]: So if we got plenty of time, maybe a question on ETFs?

[SPEAKER_04]: I just had a simple question about how best to analyze an ETF to decide whether or not.

[SPEAKER_04]: Goodbye, I get some of the ratios you want to look at for individual companies, but some of them don't directly apply.

[SPEAKER_04]: So I'm wondering what, translate and what doesn't into analyzing an ETF would love to.

[SPEAKER_04]: And you guys answer, look forward to it.

[SPEAKER_14]: Sure, so, you know, I think you can't really look at ETFs through the same lens of how you look at a company because ETFs are generally more diversified ways to invest in some sort of asset class, maybe you want small caps, maybe you want the aerospace industry, maybe you want software names.

[SPEAKER_14]: And so the way that you should be looking at whether or not an ETF is one you want to invest in,

[SPEAKER_14]: There are companies like Morningstar that give them grades, which are good, but you really need to dive in and understand what those ETFs are investing in.

[SPEAKER_14]: So if I'm looking for a small cap, US small cap fund.

[SPEAKER_14]: The SAP 600, which is, calls itself a small step index, has a lot of midcap exposure.

[SPEAKER_14]: So if I purely want smallcap exposure, that's not where I should go.

[SPEAKER_14]: Your question should be, how good of a job does this specific ETF do at attacking the asset class or theme, or whatever thing I'm trying to invest in?

[SPEAKER_14]: As number one, number two, do I understand what it's doing?

[SPEAKER_14]: Is it a black box of investment?

[SPEAKER_14]: Does it do a good job describing?

[SPEAKER_14]: Is its investment strategy sensible and how it's attacking that asset class?

[SPEAKER_14]: And then also a really important thing as well.

[SPEAKER_14]: How much of it being charged for this?

[SPEAKER_14]: If you're investing in U.S. large camps, you shouldn't be paying more than 15-20 basis points of it probably diversified.

[SPEAKER_14]: EM, 6070-based points.

[SPEAKER_14]: Understand the different asset classes demand different costs.

[SPEAKER_14]: All of these things are critical to know when choosing an HF.

[SPEAKER_14]: Thanks for the call.

[SPEAKER_15]: Invest talk is a trademark of KPP financial because of the nature of the interactive dialogue inherent in the format of this program.

[SPEAKER_15]: It's important for the listener to understand that not all comments made will apply to them.

[SPEAKER_15]: Specifically, nothing said she'll be taken to be investment advice.

[SPEAKER_15]: or shell statements on this program be considered an offer to buy or sell security.

[SPEAKER_15]: Because such advice is rendered solely on an individual basis, and at times will require that the investor review a prospectus before investing.

[SPEAKER_15]: Invest talk is a copyrighted program of Klein, Pavlis, and Peasley Financial, a registered investment advisor firm, which retains all rights.

[SPEAKER_15]: For more information regarding KPP's investment advisors,

[SPEAKER_15]: Thank you for listening, and your comments and questions are welcome on our 24-hour listener line.

[SPEAKER_15]: At 888-99 chart.