00:00:02
Speaker 1: Swing and a long drive, deep left, way back, go!

00:00:12
Speaker 2: Welcome to the Baseball America Fantasy Podcast. I'm your host, James Anderson, with Jeff Ponce, and my top 500 dynasty rankings are live on Baseball America. Definitely check those out if you have not already. Also got a companion article of 10 hitters to buy low on this offseason. Jeff, we're going to talk about a lot of different players on the pod today, but I think we got to start at the top of the rankings just because there is this wave of really impactful hitters that are like 23, 21, 24, 25. And I've ranked a handful of them over the Shohei Otani, Bobby Witt, Juan Soto guys who have been at the top of these rankings for a long time. Junior Caminero, my number one player in dynasty. He's the guy I would take first in a startup draft right now. I just think the monster four category production you're getting from him, from a player who's entering his age 23 season, it's just, it's tough to beat. But I mean, you've also got PCA coming off just a historically great season. He's, entering his age 25 season, Jackson Churio, likewise entering his age 23 season. There's just so much talent at the top here. What did you think of sort of the top of these rankings?

00:01:36
Speaker 3: Yeah, I immediately, you know, sort of honed in on that. And, you know, obviously as somebody who writes about prospects and covers prospects for a living, I love to see stuff like this means what we're putting out there has some relevancy. And I think, Sort of the shocking thing is how quickly these guys can get to the big leagues and assimilate and really fill valuable roles and contributors that put together monster production. Junior Cameron Arrow, I think, makes a lot of sense at the top when you consider he's 23. One of the best power hitters, if not the best power hitter in baseball at the moment. I think some of the positional scarcity at third base probably boosts that a little bit as well, makes him even more valuable. That always feels like a position where If you don't get it early, you feel like you're kind of grasping for straws in terms of the type of production you're going to get there. So locking somebody like that in, of course, PCA had a historic season, you know, power and speed that you chase 25 years old. He's going to be in the lineup every day because of his extraordinary defense and center field. Jackson Churio just keeps getting better and better. You know, all the stats that you're hearing this playoffs, about him being like, you know, the home run leader all time for the brewers and the playoffs and all sorts of stuff. And, you know, sure. The brewers haven't don't have a history of long, deep playoff runs. They've been in the playoffs almost every year since 2018. So there should be some guys in this roster that have accumulated those sorts of numbers, but I think it puts into perspective how good of a hitter he is at such a young age. He's so advanced. The reason he got the contract that he did and there's power and speed there. Batting average, I actually think there's more ceiling as well as he matures as a hitter. We could see even more robust production than what we're seeing right now. And then you have guys like Elie De La Cruz, Connor Griffin, who have 30-30 upside every single year. James Wood, who, you know, especially in the first half and then dealt with some injuries, unfortunately, in the second half, really stepped into his own, kind of solidifying that top and pushing a guy like Bobby Witt Jr., who's had extraordinary seasons. you know, down to the back end of that top 10. And it's totally reasonable despite the fact that Bobby Wood Jr. is 27 years old, because all of these guys are kind of in those prime years where they're not limited by age and past injuries and all that sort of thing. They're still going to be running a lot. They still have that impact in the bat and the ability to contribute in all five categories in a huge way. So it's a really exciting time. I think if you're, you're drafting a startup dynasty roster, because, you know, whether you have pick one, two, three, four, five, six, you have a litany of options that you can go after that, you know, are going to give you sort of foundational production that you're going to be chasing in these kinds of drafts. So I think it makes a lot of sense and it's kind of exciting to see that, you know, the young bucks are ascending to the top.

00:04:35
Speaker 2: What do you think about Connor Griffin at number five there entering his age 21 season? We obviously haven't seen a peak Connor Griffin season yet. Um, so this is kind of almost all projection, right. Um, but like, I think as early as this year, we could see him enter his prime and he's getting drafted and redraft leagues as a top 20 player entering 2027. So like dynasty, it makes sense to have him top 10. Um, would you have had him quite that high, even higher? Like where would you think Connor Griffin should slot?

00:05:10
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's, I think it's perfect. Um, Certainly, depending on your build, if you wanted to argue that you would prefer Bobby Wood Jr. above him or James Wood, even Juan Soto, I think, is kind of reasonable. I wouldn't argue Otani because I think at 32, with the remarkable things that he's been able to do, just a little bit more wear and tear in the body that you're seeing it now in the playoffs. He looks worn down. You have to wonder... you know, how much that's going to contribute to less production, certainly less running and some of those other numbers that, you know, I understand that Griffin struggled over the first like month or so that he was in the big leagues. And then of course dealt with an injury, but sort of that time between those first few weeks when he goes down and then when he comes back at the end of the season, he did show some spark as far as like, all right, there was real power and speed here. I think he's going to walk a lot more in year two. I think the swing and miss will go down a little bit. He'll hit for even more batting average and produce more in OBP leagues. He's still going to be 20 years old on opening day. He doesn't turn 21 until I think the 23rd or 24th of April. So it's going to be later on in that month that he actually turns 21. Put that into perspective. Go back in the annuables of time and especially over the last 30 years and look at the guys that are in the big leagues at 19, 20 years old. and the type of careers that they have and how they can take off in year two, three, and four. So I think the best is yet to come, come with Griffin. And that's what you're really chasing in dynasty. It might feel uncomfortable at times, but the best picks you make are often the ones that the less risk adverse player, especially at the top of the board is going to mock a little bit. And I remember taking like to tease, like, you know, 15th overall and like a 30 team startup years and years ago when he was, you know, coming into his rookie year. And if you look back on that, that was probably a much better pick than some of the safer picks that only allowed, you know, two or three years of runway versus five or six. And I think you'd get that with Griffin, that this could be a cornerstone piece of your team for a long, long time. Though you maybe don't get the peak production in 2027.

00:07:32
Speaker 2: Right, right. It's not necessarily setting you up to win your league in 2027 if you take Connor Griffin first in a startup, but you're getting a guy who could have a 10-year run as a first-round pick. I was surprised that I put Jackson Merrill as high as I did. I just kept pushing him up throughout the process, and he slotted in at 10th entering his age 24 season. And, uh, I mean, he was just a monster down the stretch, Jeff, um, 26 homers, 27 steals. Um, and he had a pretty slow start to the year. Uh, what did you think of Merrill's age 23 season? Yeah.

00:08:21
Speaker 3: It, you know, I, I have him in a couple of leagues, including like shallower home league, keeper league, it's head to head points. Um, And he's a funny profile to own in a points league like that. Cause he's not a high walk rate guy. So he's already kind of on the bubble as a keeper. We only keep eight and then we have some different rules around keeping prospects. So Merrill was a guy that I kind of during the first half was thinking like, I'm going to stick with them. It's better than what I'm going to be able to replace them with on the waiver wire. But, Probably is a guy that I'm going to end up throwing back, you know, into the pool, you know, come next year. Fast forward to the second half, you know, first half, he hits 219, 278, 350 with, I think, 10 home runs. Second half, rocket boosters, absolute opposite 304, 339. five 69 with what was it? 16 home runs in the second half, you know, puts up good RBI and run totals. So, you know, you're not going to get the boost in OBP all the time with Merrill, but I think that the value of the counting stats, the fact that, you know, he can go 25, 25, maybe flirt with 30, 30, we're giving you a good batting average and, you know, plenty of counting stats gives you that five category contribution. And you can kind of live with, even in an OBP league or a points league with the lower walk rate and the lower OBP numbers. But yeah, the second half, like really kind of flipped the narrative. Cause I think I, myself being a Merrill, a manager with Merrill on his squad, like, I think a lot of us were probably pretty frustrated in the first half. And then, you know, you get the second half production and it pushed a lot of our teams into championships or playoffs or, you know, higher up in our five by five rankings.

00:10:22
Speaker 2: Yeah. And you, you mentioned Otani being lower. Like I really think having him top 10 is, is still just such a, a nod to him because I don't have any other players who are over 30 in my top 25. The next highest ranked player who's over 30 is going to be Jordan Alvarez who's entering his age 30 season. So yeah, Otani being top 10, like who knows how long he stays there, but, so much respect for what he's done. The pitchers, Jacob Mizorowski, Cam Schlittler, Tariq Skubal, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, you know, I slotted them kind of in the middle of that like 10 to 20 range. How would you sort of value that like elite crop of starting pitchers relative to those hitters?

00:11:15
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think, you know, when you're, kind of building out a dynasty squad um there's a certain point where pitchers will slide down the board where they start to become a value i do think like outside the top 10 is is consistently um where that area sits and that's regardless of age because jacob miziorowski is 25 schlittler's 26 i mean we you know even yamamoto is 28 i think you know there's probably some back end years in the, some years in the backend of peaks that exist in the mid thirties for pitchers that don't necessarily for hitters as guys lose athleticism, et cetera. You still run the risk of one sort of bad pitch, right? And the trajectory of that player changing for a year and a half, you know, most of the time it's an elbow, God forbid, it's a shoulder or something else. but with pitching comes risk. And that risk is inherently because of injuries. It's not usually because a guy loses it. And if he does, it's probably injury based and they're pitching through something. So I think where you have them in that, you know, mid to late teen area and kind of clustered together makes a lot of sense. Like the order of terms of Mizurowski, Schlittler, Schubel versus Yamamoto. While Yamamoto is, I think I would pick in like a one game playoff over Scooble as my starter, which might sound crazy a little bit, but I just think there's some elements that we've seen obviously in pressure moments with him. Some of the things that he can do over the course of a regular season, I'm still taking, you know, Terrick Scooble and, and in large part because you know what he can do in terms of strikeouts, kind of rack those numbers up. And I still think that we have a few more years of his peak, especially if this, elbow injury scare that he dealt with in Detroit earlier this season is truly in the rear view mirror. So like where you have these guys, like how you have them lined up. I can't argue with the order at all. And I think, you know, Mizzerowski clearly the number one starter, but there's still some risks. This guy throws 104 plus miles an hour, a whole lot. So we don't know where, you know, that will go long-term with the health or if things can go bad.

00:13:38
Speaker 2: All right, we got to head to a quick break, but when we come back, we're going to compare Kevin McGonigal and Sal Stewart, who I've got ranked back to back on the Dynasty Rankings.

00:13:50
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00:15:31
Speaker 2: All right, back with Jeff Ponce. And Jeff, you saw that I had Sal Stewart one spot ahead of Kevin McGonigal and that jumped out to you as noteworthy. You know, I think Sal Stewart's 2026 season it's possible that that's a better fantasy season than Kevin McGonigal's best fantasy season, but it's also possible. Sal Stewart never has a year as good as he did this year. McGonigal is a year younger. Sal Stewart's got the much better park. Where are you at on, on Stewart versus McGonigal projecting ahead?

00:16:15
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's funny because, you know, in a real life scenario, He would never take Sal Stewart over McGonigal, right? Just even as an offensive profile, like he just does so many things well that are of value. But I think, you know, like you said, he's somewhat limited by his park. If they're in the same park, all things being even, I think, you know, the power boost that he probably would get at Great America Ballpark would maybe be enough to bridge the gap. It's only one spot in your ranking. So I don't think I'm saying anything crazy there. Um, but I do think it's an interesting conversation because there will be seasons where McGonigal in fantasy outproduces Stewart in the future, I think. And I don't know if that will be injury related or not, but I just think, you know, they both play 145 to 150 games in this particular season. There could be a year where the luck is just on the side of McGonigal, right? A few more balls go over the fence that were doubles. Um, A couple more mishits drop that didn't this year. You know, he hits 310 and steals, you know, 20 bases and hits 20 to 25 home runs, drives in a bunch of runs, you know, scores 100 runs. There's a scenario where that happens. But I think just flatly, if you had to bet on like, all right, who's going to rank higher in fantasy in 2027?

00:17:41
Speaker 2: The smarter bet might.

00:17:42
Speaker 3: Be Stewart because the park he's in, he's going to hit for a high batting average. He's going to hit for a ton of home runs, right? Just the nature of that park. We saw him hit 30. So like the 30 home run, 300 batting average, 100 plus RBIs, 110 plus RBIs, you know, with a decent run total, I think is enough to make up for the stolen bases and all that sort of thing. So I think it makes a lot of sense. You could probably go one way or the other. I think McGonigal is the better baseball player. the guy that you'd much rather build your team around in real life. But I think as far as fantasy, it's a pretty even conversation. And, you know, maybe some of it would depend on who your first round pick is, but yeah, I think just what you get from the power on base batting average perspective and how he can rack up RBIs, but they're always a tough category to kind of project and predict from year to year. but there's some value there and certainly the park and also where he's going to hit in the order. Stewart's probably more of like your traditional three or four hitter where McGonigal can really hit anywhere from one to three.

00:18:58
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think McGonigal's, the fact that we just, I don't really know what the peak Kevin McGonigal season is going to look like. Maybe that's a case for having him higher than Stewart. Maybe it's a case for having him one spot behind, but, you know, he hit 18 homers in 156 games, 12 steals, 278 average, 376 OBP. You know, that's a hell of a rookie season. Where, where are you sort of expecting like a peak Kevin McGonigal power season to kind of end up? Like, are we talking low twenties? Like, could he get to high twenties? Like where, how do you sort of see that playing out?

00:19:41
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't, I don't think, He's 21.

00:19:46
Speaker 2: Right.

00:19:47
Speaker 3: Just turned 22. we're not going to see his power peak until he's probably like 26 27 and his hit tool is such that he just has a ton of barrel control um and talked a little bit off air about this with you and i've mentioned a million podcasts over the years but he just gets really clean backspin to the pull side kind of reminiscent of like how jose ramirez gets to a ton of power himself um but alex bregman was really good at this joey vatos was good at this mookie betts is good at this and numerous guys over the years um but he's just kind of a magician in terms of how well he manipulates that barrel that it wouldn't be shocking for you know things to strike the right way that upper twenties isn't out of the realm of possibility. And he could flirt with 30, you know, 18 at the age that he's at, he's only going to get stronger. He's only going to continue to manipulate the barrel better and understand and know major league pitching better. And just kind of the worker he is type of hitter.

00:20:55
Speaker 2: He is.

00:20:55
Speaker 3: I don't think it's crazy to think that he could unlock that. It may not happen overnight. It might take a few years, but I think like a 27 to 32, one 32 home run season isn't out of the cards for McGonigal.

00:21:08
Speaker 2: Yeah. I, I love the Jose Ramirez call out there. Cause I, he's the guy that I always think of in terms of just like underrating someone's power potential right out of the gate as like a prospect. And then just, he just blows past it because of how good of a pure hitter he was. I, I think, i don't that's the tough thing with mcgonigal right now is like do you buy low on him right now in dynasty maybe um do you draft him and redraft at his current price it's just tough to know where the power is going to be in 2027 but i do think in his mid-20s there's going to be um some years where he flirts with with 25 plus yeah i agree and then i mean it's you know how much is he running at that point like is he is he still chipping in 15 steals in his mid twenties. Like that would be huge. So Jeff, you know, blue chip prospect, Kevin McGonigal, Sal Stewart, someone who, you know, I've, I've ranked highly for a long time. We're going to talk about some other potential buy low guys later in the show that I had ranked very highly in the past and, and hadn't really put it together yet. Victor Mesa jr. Is not someone that I have ranked highly in the past. And, um frankly probably wasn't on my prospect rankings for the bulk of his minor league career and he has had a a monster breakout season and particularly in the second half um you know it's a pretty obvious like four and a half five category skill set based on just what he's done this year um but this could also just be the absolute high point in his value I ranked him just outside the top 100, which feels kind of crazy. He is extremely buzzy right now in high stakes draft and hold leagues. It's just weird to say about Victor Mesa Jr. I mean, are you believing this? Are you more on the side of like, I would try to cash this out if someone's willing to value him as a borderline top 100 asset?

00:23:23
Speaker 3: It's going to, it's going to depend on your team. I, this, this one breaks my brain. You know, he was never, he was ranked as a prospect inside a Marlin system that was fine, but wasn't outrageously deep. I mean, he never ranked higher than 22nd. So 2020, he was the 22nd best prospect in the system. 2021 29th best prospect in the system 2022 25th he didn't rank in 2023 or 2024 and mind you this was a shallow system at that point so breaking into it should have been fairly easy um especially as a guy that like a team would have thought like in the back end um ranked 30th in 2025 He's traded in February by the Marlins because he's kind of viewed as like a spare part and comes out and, you know, drops in real life terms, at least like a near three war season produces shows good underlying or solid underlying like hit tool kind of metrics. And, you know, hits a little for a little bit of power and steal some bases and, you know, gives you some value. That said, it's a risk reward, right? Like this could just be the beginning and it's kind of like that platform year and he builds on this or some of the more concerning stuff under the hood, like the 34% O swing, you know, the sub 80% contact rate, the 12% swinging strike rate without having like crazy bat speed or power or launch, you kind of are tying up a whole lot there in the angles or the hope that he gets a little bit stronger. But at the same time, there's production, there's playing time, there's all around production. He's done it. It's not a bad, he wasn't striking out at a super high rate. It was a 20% strikeout rate in his first, you know, full professional, major league season, excuse me. Um, so I don't know, like I can see both sides of it. I think if I had him, I wouldn't want to trade him. Cause I'd be too nervous that he'd be good on somebody else's team. But if I'm at the draft table, I'm probably fading him a little bit for somebody with, you know, a little bit more established production, um, in that spot, but you know, it's a lot of outfielders. You've got a draft, you've got a roster, a lot of outfielders. So um i wouldn't i'm not totally adverse to at the right price you know potentially trading for him in a dynasty league but i can i think he's a hold right now whether you're you know don't have him or have him it's kind of you got to see how this shakes.

00:26:29
Speaker 2: Out yeah he had uh reverse splits this year was um way better against lefties had a 14 strikeout rate against lefties um And he also had a really low bad up against righties. And just the fact that he was able to shed that platoon, like the Rays obviously love breaking lefty hitters in on a platoon, and he just wasn't in one by the end of the season. Yeah, man, he's a tough guy to trade because you're not sure kind of where this is going. But I would at least listen if somebody– if somebody wants to make a really aggressive offer on Mesa, I think, I think you got to listen this off season. Um, so Jeff, uh, you know, the, the pitchers, uh, that we talked about earlier, like lockdown aces, I, I find pitching to just be really thin. Um, you know, every off season, it's just, it gets pushed up and then everyone starts, you know, having warts Jackson, Job, um, is someone who is going to be getting pushed up kind of throughout the off season based on how he finished 2026. And obviously, you know, blue chip pitching prospect, um, took a little while, but I mean, I thought he looked as good as, as he's ever looked closing the season. Um, you know, he ranks, uh, in that 100 to 200 range on the dynasty rankings or no, he's, he's inside the top 100 on the dynasty rankings, uh, sitting at 83, uh, What do you think about Job's 2027 and how he finished 2026?

00:28:15
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think this guy probably has one of the higher ceilings in 2027 from where he's going to be drafted and how he's going to be valued. You know, look good, you know, coming back from, from Tommy John surgery, but I think there's probably still going to be some skepticism around like how many innings does, does Joe really project for, um, you know, is it more like a hundred to 110 or is it more like one 30 to maybe even one 50 over the course of the season? Cause I think how he produces by the end of the season is going to be kind of heavily dependent on that, you know, 30 to 40 innings. If he gets those extra 30 to 40 innings, he's going to rack up even more strikeouts. And then I think kind of, um, jumps into a different tier almost in terms of like where he's ranked in actual value at the end of the year. So there's a ton of upside here. There's obviously some risk. I think it's a worthwhile name to kind of buy into and maybe early in the off season, like whenever your dynasty league allows training, maybe they do now, maybe it's after the world series or starting in December or something. I think before the hype, gets too crazy, he's probably a good name to target. Cause I don't think people are going to quite know how to appropriately value him in dynasty trades.

00:29:52
Speaker 2: Yeah. So he, he got to 60 over 60 innings this year, including his, his rehab and, Um, but I mean, he was finishing, he was finishing strong, like going deep. Um, like I, I would project like maybe 135, 140 innings in like a full season. Um, does that seem reasonable for you in 2027 for Joe?

00:30:18
Speaker 1: Yeah, no.

00:30:19
Speaker 3: Uh, I think that's kind of what your target is. Like if you get one 50, that's like the most ideal situation, but you're kind of, if you're taking them high or you're investing in them, you're open for that like 125, like 145 kind of sweet spot.

00:30:34
Speaker 2: And there, there just aren't many guys that go way past one 50 and give you good ratios and, and strikeouts. It's just, it's kind of a dying breed. So getting like, I don't look down on the like 135, 145, like good inning pitchers the way that I used to. It's just like, you need to have, good pitching on your roster, even if some of it's not going to be available for you the whole season. Um, so yeah, I just, I think Joe it's clicking for him. It's, it's going to be a big 2027. It's just, you know, maybe not as many innings as some of these other guys, but I love that idea of, of maybe poking around and seeing if you can pry him loose early this off season. Um, let's talk about some of the other like pitchers where we're just where's their career going? How do we value these guys? Because we don't quite know what their role is going to be. Grant Taylor's been a tough one to kind of figure out in drafts for 2027. Like, are you drafting a closer? Are you drafting a starter? Didier Fuentes, kind of the same thing. I mean, I think we, I expect him to be given a chance to be stretched out. Same, I expect Hayden Smith to be stretched out. But these are guys that haven't proven it in a starting role in the big leagues yet. Um, let's start with Taylor. Like, are you, it seemed before we started recording, you're kind of leaning towards him being a reliever. Yeah.

00:31:59
Speaker 3: I think if you just look at, well, number one, how, how effective he is in that role. Um, but also just some of his history as far as injuries, um, and how he's best utilized. I think that, um, keeping him to these like two inning, like relief outings or using him as a one inning closer that can maybe get you four to five outs on the toughest days or when your bullpen's a little taxed and he's rested. I think that's just his most ideal role. Maybe that changes in the future. He certainly has the stuff for it. As an amateur, I saw him, in the Cape Cod League right before he was injured going into the 23 season where he would have been in a rotation with skeins. And I mean, he was phenomenal, like showing five or six different pitch shapes, you know, had feel for spin, could ride it, could sink it, you know, kind of do anything that you wanted to and just manipulate the baseball at a really, you know, sort of unnatural level. You just don't see guys that do stuff like that. So he has like the depth of arsenal to be a starter. But I just think ultimately with some of the health stuff, kind of how he moves mechanically, the command to an extent as well, I think is he's just, his most ideal role is.

00:33:29
Speaker 2: Out of the pen. Yeah. I mean, if, if he's getting most of the saves, then he's a top five, like top six closer. But, like if he only gets, you know, 22 saves, 24 saves, that's, you know, that's kind of like the worst case scenario, I think for his, his fantasy value. Like we, I would want them to be, you know, top five closer or get stretched out, um, and see how that goes. But, um, yeah, I, I, I like, or I like drafting Taylor, um, in 2027. And I think you've got to draft him, um, At this point, I think you've got to draft him like he's a closer. But, man, he's getting drafted in the top 100 already. Fuentes is also a guy who's really buzzy. Everyone just fell in love with him in spring training last year. He was getting drafted incredibly high in some main event drafts when people thought he was going to be a starter. I think Fuentes is going to be developed as a starter, and I'm pretty excited about it. What about you?

00:34:42
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with you. I think ultimately we end up seeing Fuentes, maybe like not right away next year in the rotation, but it wouldn't shock me if, you know, he maybe even starts in AAA while they stretch him out for a couple of weeks. And then he comes up and, you know, starts to be that sort of five and dive kind of a starter that can rack up, you know, a ton of strikeouts. You know, you could go five innings and strike out seven or eight batters pretty consistently. The command, I think, is way better than people realize. Kind of had neutral to maybe a little bad luck at times this season, just on balls and play. But just kind of controls all of the things that he can in terms of, you know, hits good spots. He throws good stuff consistently, generates swings and misses, doesn't walk a whole lot of batters, isn't super home run prone. I think you can kind of, and he's had good health. I think you can kind of project this out. And when you consider another guy, you consider that he turned 21 in June. You have a lot of runway here. So to me, this is the guy that you invest in and you tolerate whatever hybrid role he's going to have the next 18 months with some confidence that sometime in that 18 month window, the switch will go off, whether it's for the Braves or Fuentes or both. where he's in that rotation and kind of just solidifies himself as a stalwart there for a bunch of years.

00:36:13
Speaker 2: Yeah, Fuentes is younger than Jackson Flora. You've got to just mention that every time you talk about him because he struggled against lefties compared to how he did against righties, but that's just one of those things. He's so young. He still had a really successful season. I think you've just got to expect him to get better over the next few years in a way that a lot of these guys won't. Hagan Smith is another guy who people are really getting excited about based on how he finished the season. I mean, the strikeout stuff is obvious. It's always kind of been the control with Hagan Smith. How do you see 2027 going for him?

00:37:00
Speaker 3: See, I would think that the White Sox have a little bit more investment just where he was drafted, the draft that was drafted in how highly he was drafted to invest in him as a starter might be another one of these guys like Fuentes where it takes a little time for him to kind of mature into that role, which isn't the worst thing. We've seen a lot of guys initially cut their teeth in the bullpen and then develop into really good starting pitchers. Chris sale was one actually the one with the white socks. We've seen a few Garrett crochet being another and you know, that's certainly not, it's not limited to just those guys in that team. Just so happens that we've talked about two of them. I think Smith is the one that eventually develops into, you know, a starter and it, it might be right out of camp next year. You know, it might've just been a matter of him seeing, you know, a lineup one time through getting his, you know, kind of feel for the major league game and facing MLB lineups. And, you know, it's the first time in, these guys lives where they're facing lineups that really don't quit outside of, you know, that off really talented lineup in college. So I think with Smith, maybe it happens in April next year for playing games in April or may, maybe it happens later in the season, but I do think sometime like with Fuentes, maybe it was more of like a 12 month window that I do think sometime in 2027, I'm pretty certain he'll be a starter for the white Sox. And it might be more like four to five innings in his most efficient days. He goes six where he kind of builds up to that larger workload eventually, but he was kind of out in the wilderness in the woods a little bit as a prospect and kind of had to figure some things out. And I think we've seen a better version of Hagan Smith because of that. So just kind of a little aside, but just remember, especially with pitching prospects development is very much not linear and there typically have to be some struggles, some obstacles to overcome. for them to kind of get to those, those peak seasons.

00:39:04
Speaker 2: Yeah. Another guy that I kind of like in this role, a guy that could maybe get stretched out as Spencer miles of the blue Jays. You also engage would a prospect like any other, any other of these guys who want to hit on here before we move on to the by low hitters.

00:39:22
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I think gauge would is super interesting. I think miles, you know, certainly you can speak more on that, but um, I think, you know, they're both guys that, you know, miles of course was a starter reliever and, you know, had good stuff dealt with some injuries, you know, rule five pick and has kind of a funny pathway where it's kind of a straight line with wood really good this year. Um, I'm going to write an article that's going to come out today on the site detailing the best overall arsenals, uh, in the minor leagues. And I listed the top one 50 with guys that threw a minimum of 800 pitches. There's a lot of relievers in there. When I set the filter to 1500 pitchers pitches, you're getting primarily guys that were starters, right. To accumulate that number of pitches in a given season woods right there in the top 10 alongside guys like, you know, Tanner Franklin and, you know, Brody Hopkins, who was a starter for most of the season and others that have some of the best stuff in the minors. He's got two high spin breaking balls that, miss bats. He has a mid to high nineties fastball that will touch triple digits. Um, that's a lower release height gets good extension, um, kind of flat vertical approach angle fastball that really misses a ton of bats at the top of the zone. Uh, and then he's got an excellent splitter as well. That ranks as one of the best splitters in the minor. So I think you look at like his overall arsenal is super powerful.

00:40:46
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:40:46
Speaker 3: He's a little undersided undersized and stocky. Um, but i kind of can look past that and think that this guy will eventually you know continue to develop as a starter was mostly a reliever in college made the jump to the rotation his final year was learning a little bit on the job this year as well i think we'll start to see more and more five inning starts and eventually this guy will be in the phillies rotation uh and kind of give them a young breath of fresh air that they got i guess this year with andrew painter but I think it might be a little bit smoother of a transition for Wood simply because he pitched in the SEC for three years and he's been through those battles. He's known what it's like to have a manager on the sideline that potentially could lose his job or be in hot water if he botches this inning or this start. So there's a lot of that, I think, with starting pitchers that they have to overcome is the mental side of the game too. And I think that Wood kind of has that. I'm kind of confident that I think he's a sneaky, um, rookie pitcher to kind of target in some of these drafts, even if it's as a reliever early, because he's got such firepower that I think you could really rack up the strikeouts and just be a valuable addition to, you know, any style, whether it's redraft or dynasty roster.

00:42:02
Speaker 2: Yeah. I think, uh, we're going to see a lot of those top college arms from that 2025 class come up in 2027, Gage Wood, um, Liam Doyle, Jamie Arnold, um, I think that it's going to be that, that wave of pitching is going to be coming around mid season, I think so. Um, would, I mean, it's, there's not a ton of depth outside of the Phillies starting five. So, um, he could, he could be in there for sure. Um, all right, let's move on to some potential, uh, by low targets, or I guess like guys that could break out in 2027. And I want to start with Curtis Mead, Jeff, um, he peaked at number eight overall on my prospect rankings in March of 2023, but 2026 was the first time he flashed anything close to that kind of potential, but it was pretty exciting. And I kind of feels a little to me, like what we saw from Miguel Vargas last year, where he sort of, he sort of teased at, at a potential, like being, being the player we thought he was another guy that I had as a top 10 prospect back in the day. Miguel Vargas. And now what we saw from Meade before he got traded to the Red Sox and unfortunately gets injured right away. But I think this is an ascending hitter who's going to hit for average, who's going to hit for power, who's going to have a solid OBP and can chip in some steals. What are your thoughts on Curtis Meade?

00:43:36
Speaker 3: Yeah, I love Curtis Meade. And it's funny because coming into the year, he gets traded twice in a year, but coming into the year, he had shown some stuff the end of the year with the white socks was like maybe he's turning a corner a little bit um the nats did a great job of recognizing that bringing him in you know making some adjustments and kind of getting the player that we thought me was going to be which was a guy who was a great hitter meaning made a lot of contact got on base with power and he kind of had never fulfilled that and then you know this year in a larger sample size you know puts together some pretty awesome production over 88 games. It's two 53, 50, three 53, four 98, 17 home runs. And that was with like fairly below average luck. He had a two 68 batting average on balls and play. He's a right-handed hitter that can pull the ball a little bit in Fenway park. I think that you can project that a Babbitt to jump quite a few points next year that if it settles in at 300 or above it's, especially because of his ability to pull the ball in the air. It wouldn't be shocking. That's going to boost the batting average a lot. I think that he's very sneaky going into next year. When you look at all the elements here and they kind of kept him getting injured, kind of kept the secret because I don't think the Red Sox were wrong to target this guy. And if he's healthy, maybe he answers some of the questions that that, lineup had in terms of needing that guy that can produce you know consistently day in and day out he gives you really good at bats he's not prone to chasing 25% o-swing which is a good good number 91.6% zone contact he had a 6.6% swinging strike rate and this is the kind of numbers I used to notice when he was a prospect with a raise where it was like he's got the super low swinging strike rate But he's also got a 10.8% barrel rate, a 42.3% hard hit rate. His average launch angle is high. His average EV is solid. There's some top end exit velocities there as well. He actually underproduced his expected batting average. His X slug was right in line with what his slug was. I think you look at all that stuff and you're like, this is a really good hitter. And this could be a guy that we're talking about by July of next year. jump in 50 spots from where he's ranked right now pretty easily. And I don't think he needs like a ton of just good luck. I think he just needs kind of neutral luck on balls and play and play into that ballpark. He's going to hit a lot of doubles. I think the home run power is there as well. It's not crazy to think he could hit 275 to 285 with, you know, 22 to 27 home runs and some good counting stats.

00:46:24
Speaker 2: If he plays 150 games, Yeah. And if, if he plays 150 games, just based on his, his last two seasons, he will get over 10 steals because he's, he's kind of been attempting them at that kind of clip. And like, similarly again to Miguel Vargas, like you just don't think of these guys as like fast guys that are going to steal bases, but just chipping in like 10, 12, 15 steals from a corner infielder. That's huge. And yeah, Yeah, I mean, Meade, like you said, that swinging strike rate combined with how hard he hits the ball, it's tough to find. So, I mean, that just seems like an obvious buy. I don't know where the ADP is going to get to. But, I mean, he's someone I want on a lot of teams in 2027, someone I would definitely want to target in Dynasty. Jeff, another... Guy who was a former top 10 prospect, even a top five prospect for me back in the day. Kobe Mayo of the Orioles took him a while as well. Came into 2026 with a career 201 average and a strikeout rate over 31%. Finished really strong this year, slash 267, 336, 550 average. with 14 home runs and a 27% strikeout rate from July on. So like if Kobe Mayo's keeping the strikeouts in that sort of like mid twenties area, I mean, he's going to hit a ton of pound, a ton of homers. What do you think about Mayo?

00:48:14
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think especially if, you know, the numbers start to come along a little bit against right-handers and be interested to see what his numbers were specifically against righties. in the second half, he's one of the best hitters against, you know, left-handers, um, in the, the big leagues this year, um, hit two 76, three 69, uh, five 28 against lefties had seven home runs. This is across 123 at bat. So you're not seeing as many at bats, of course, against lefties, um, barely saw more at bats against right-handers. And I think that's really where, um, the struggle will be for him and his numbers weren't bad. 235, 340, 475 against right-handers did run a, I think a sub 20% strikeout rate against them. So the numbers were like pretty good overall. And, you know, the approach didn't bottom out against those guys. So if he starts to see more at bats against right-handers and he can even be like average with some power, like just an average producer right league average guy against right handers with what he does against lefties and how often he'll be in the lineup against those guys kind of kills any split issues gives him you know the at bat numbers that he needs to to reach in order to maybe be that 30 home run guy i think it's still within the cards for him and this was a this was a really encouraging year for Kobe Mayo, who was a, you know, a guy that a lot of people were kind of writing off coming into the year of like, I don't know if it's ever going to work. He was a productive player and he was a productive player against lefties and righties. So he should see a full slate of at bats next year and be, you know, part of that lineup and we'll see where it goes, especially if they're fully healthy. I think the Orioles could be much better in, in 2027.

00:50:08
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think another reason to sniff around and see if you can buy Mayo this offseason is, like, I'm looking at roster resource right now, and they've got him on the bench with Christian Encarnacion-Strand in the starting lineup, which I just don't see CES playing over Kobe Mayo next year. So I think you might even be able to get the guy that has Mayo to be questioning whether he's got that role heading into next year, so.

00:50:36
Speaker 3: Yeah, I messed up on the slash line, too. The page hadn't switched yet. So it was actually 177, 244, 323 against righties. The numbers were much worse against righties. And, you know, the numbers against lefties were even better. 322, 393, 712. So accidentally gave you Curtis Meade splits there where I thought the page had already switched and it didn't.

00:50:59
Speaker 2: So apologies for that. he was bad enough against righties that, I mean, it's, it's, it's definitely something that we, we got to note it, you know? Um, so, uh, yeah. Uh, like buying Curtis Mead, like buying Kobe Mayo. Um, you know, I, I've, I've done two drafts. I'm in the middle of my second draft so far, Jeff, I I've taken ESAC parade ace in both of them. And I just think people are, are kind of sleeping on this guy. Um, And you might be able to get him for way too cheap in Dynasty. I think people think of him as this low batting average, like 20 homer guy. But I think he's just a more well-rounded hitter than that. I think he's a really solid run producer. His batting averages have been kind of trending up as the league batting average is trending down. I'm a big fan of Paredes, and I just don't think he gets enough respect in fantasy.

00:52:02
Speaker 3: Yeah, and he pulls the ball in the air a lot. So I think sometimes that kind of, like it gives and it takes, right? Like you'll find more home runs and doubles that way. It might hurt your batting average as well, just because fly balls have a lower batting average on balls in play than like line drives or ground balls do. Some of it might just be fine in that. I mean, he's not a guy that swings and misses a lot. Like you're just looking at it. He's never had a swing strike rate above 7.9%. And that's honestly kind of an outlier couple of years that he had 23, 24 on both sides of that. It's more like a 6% swing and strike rates. He kind of falls into that need category of a guy who hits the ball pretty hard. It's weird. He has like inconsistent hard hit, like it's a low hard hit rate, but his top NDVs, he can still kind of get to that. You know, I think the angles are still kind of flat, so there's still going to be some ground balls. But yeah, It's an interesting overall profile because he's always been a good hitter. He hits the ball in the air a ton. But honestly, finding a few more line drives could potentially lead to higher batting averages for him. And I think as we've seen the batting averages climb, we've seen his line drive rate climb 22%, 25% or 24.1%. He starts to get a little bit into that 25%. and maybe even some of that ticks off of the fly ball rate. I think just trading some of those soft fly balls for harder liners, and even just a couple percentage points could make a big difference in terms of batting average and just some of the numbers that he produces. Because we've seen him hit 31 home runs. We've seen him hit 20 home runs four times now, almost five. at 19 and 2024, if he doesn't end the season, uh, struggling the way he did that year, uh, you know, post trade with the Cubs, you know, maybe he does reach 20 and we're talking about a guy that's had five consecutive 20 home run season. So a lot of like underlying production that maybe doesn't make sense with the home run totals. But I think part of it is he kind of balances good approach on base ability, uh, bat to ball skills with you know this kind of pull side selling out for power approach that usually leads to a lot of strikeouts it doesn't with him because of you know those natural bat to ball ability skills that he has.

00:54:34
Speaker 2: Yeah and he's in the perfect park for that uh that's true as well um jeff uh cam canarella has been someone that, uh, as I get acclimated at BA, I learned everyone at BA likes Cam Canarella as much as I do. And that's great because he's, uh, he's a fascinating, uh, prospect because he just, he's never hit an infield fly ball. Um, he was drafted, I think at least as I recall more for his glove than, than his bat. Um, I can't get a sense of just like how good of a big league hitter Cantarella is going to be. Is he going to be just a like 15 Homer, like 15 steel guy? Like, I feel like that's, that's feeling more like the floor to me. Um, what do you think about Cantarella?

00:55:27
Speaker 3: Yeah. So I've had a comp on him for a little bit since I saw him for a series in Worcester this summer. Um, he reminds me a lot of Johnny Damon, even like defensively, like he's a really good center fielder with like a terrible arm. Like it's, it's a 20, 30 might be rich. It's a bad arm. Like he always hits the cutoff, man. But he's a 70 grade outfielder. Like he's phenomenal out there. He gets to everything. The center field arm is really like kind of overrated. You don't even have a huge arm to be in center field. That's a corner guy kind of thing. But, He fits that dynamic lead-off profile that Damon did. And I think it's a little more modernized, a little more actualized power now. We're doing our top 30s or top 10s for NL. We tie in part of our process, kind of building out the 100 list so we know how we want guys lined up and who we want access to in the list. Keanu Rowe is funny because I think people think of him as like this soft hitting guy, yada, yada, yada. He had a 51 or 52% hard hit rate this year. Like I had a hitting coach say this to me a couple of weeks ago, but you know, his goal with his teams and his hitters is not to hit the ball harder than anybody else, but to hit the ball hard more often than anybody else. Meaning the guys that have the high average EVs, if it don't have the craziest 90th percentile EVs, He hits a ton of hard liners. It's hard contact all the time. He makes a lot of contact. He's going to hit for a high average because he hits a lot of hard liners. He works his walks, doesn't strike out. There's good bats at ball skills. He's really fast. So he's going to outrun some of those infield singles, that sort of thing too. He's going to be able to stretch balls in the gap to second or third base. He's the kind of guy that could maybe lead the majors in triples. I do think we're going to be talking more like maybe 12 to 16 home runs. But I think 25 to 30 steals, if he gets a lot of green lights, if he's getting on base at the clips that he was in the minors, he's not striking out. He's hitting for a high average.

00:57:47
Speaker 2: I don't think.

00:57:47
Speaker 3: 30 steal seasons are impossible based on his speed, his base running ability. Defense is going to stay, you know, keep him in the lineup every day. And the type of hitter he is, is kind of that quintessential dynamic leadoff guy with just like enough power that, you know, like some of those Damon years, maybe like peak Brian Roberts kind of years. If you remember him when he was a great leadoff hitter, it's these guys that kind of check all those boxes of being good contact hitters, but also guys that get on base with speed and enough power and damage to get those balls to the gap to, you know, punish those mistakes and, you know, hit 12 or 13 home runs. Those are really valuable players. I think he's kind of underrated in fantasy, man. Um, I think this is a clear top 100 guy in fantasy. They can real life. He's more like a top 50 guy with the proximity. Maybe that pushes them up in a fantasy list as well. I mean, I, I just, I buy into it and, you know, he had production at the highest levels of the minors, um, in his first full professional season. I think that's, that's tough to do to get up to triple a for multiple months and really hold your own. Um, isn't easy to do. And there's enough here, I think, in terms of impact for him to be a valuable fantasy guy and maybe one that's a little bit underrated.

00:59:08
Speaker 2: Yeah. The proximity combined with the, the hit tool and the defense that's going to get them in the lineup. I think that makes him a top 50 guy. Jeff, I am, I'm, I think maybe the guy that I'm, I'm most staunch about buying low on of the players in this article is Kane Kepley. of the Cubs. And I really think Keppley is basically AJ Ewing, just, he hasn't proven it yet. And, um, they're just, there aren't many guys that I can even recall covering as a prospect with his combination of bat to ball ability and speed on the bases. Um, Keppley is just, I think he's, he's such an obvious, like everyday, uh, center fielder in, you know, a year, two years, something like that. Um, people may label him a slap hitter. The thing that I love is that just like AJ Ewing, like he's trying to pull the ball, uh, his ground ball rates have been consistently pretty low. So I just think there's a lot to like with Keppley. Uh, what do you think?

01:00:18
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you, you hit the nail on the head and I would say like, it's not dissimilar from, uh, Cam Canarello. Canarello is just a bigger guy. He's probably three or four inches taller than Kepley. You know, it's just a little bit more optimized, I think, for power. Maybe a little bit better of a contact hitter. But, you know, Kepley is one of these guys that an OVP points leagues is going to crush because he'll sell out some batting average in order to work deep into counts. He's going to take a ton of counts. He's going to take more strikes. than can a relative will, who's going to swing at stuff over the heart of the plate. Kepley's going to make you throw four to five pitches every at bat. He's going to grind you down. He's going to get on base. He is an 80 base runner. You know, maybe it's 70 speed. When you build in the instincts, his ability to read pictures, his first jumps, his footwork at the end around the bag and his anticipation, he's an 80 base runner. So you could put 80 on that speed tool.

01:01:21
Speaker 2: In my opinion, he.

01:01:22
Speaker 3: Stole 70 bags this year. It's caught six times. It was a historically good success rate. And I think we all have learned that even more so than the raw steel numbers, that success percentage is even more indicative of A, being given the green light in the major leagues, but your ability to steal the bags and do all the little things that allow you to steal at high rates. 50 stolen base seasons aren't out of the realm of possibility here. It may come with more like seven to, eight, nine, maybe 10 home runs. Maybe there's a little bit more than that playing in some of those NL central parks, et cetera. He's not going to strike out a lot. I think the batting averages could go up. There's more here than I think people realize he's never going to hit 20 home runs. I don't think he's that kind of a hitter, but he's going to hit for batting average. It's going to give you enough in terms of the not it's not Juan Pierre. It's not a total zero in power. And yeah, you're going to get that, you know, 40, 50 stolen base season, or maybe a couple of them could be really dynamic, score a ton of runs for you and just carry a lot of value. So he's another one of these guys that we've had in the top 100 for a while. And I think he just maybe has some sneaky value and fantasy that, you know, there's bigger name prospects who are ranked higher that like, if you told me that Kane Kepley outproduces Lazaro Montes, I don't think that's a crazy statement.

01:02:52
Speaker 2: No. I mean, just the seasons we're talking about, like an eight home run, 50 steal season, like that's easy top 100 fantasy value. So, I mean, you're just never going to have to pay that type of price for Kane Kepley in a trade. So I just think it makes a ton of sense. We got time to touch on one more of these guys, Jeff. What do you think, Brian Rincon or Andy Azekar?

01:03:19
Speaker 3: Let's do Rincon because he's kind of an interesting discussion point as a switch hitter that had a terrible year in 25. I mean, he was hit 181, 304 through 298. He was terrible. This year goes to Redding. You got the magic baseball. He hits 267, 410, 517 to 140 WRC plus. Career high 26 home runs, steals 30 bases, walks at a high rate, doesn't strike out at a high rate. Rincon to me is interesting because how much do you buy into the breakout knowing that there is some funniness with the baseballs and double layer below and he's in one of the best hitter parks on earth like one of the best power hitter parks on earth we've been fooled a little bit by some power seasons in reading before that said he's one of the best shortstop defenders in the minors so there is a high floor because of the kind of defender he is at shortstop and in the infield, like immediately could fit in as a valuable utility guy. Yeah.

01:04:24
Speaker 2: You know, I think I am buying in because I just think under the hood, like I didn't really see anything alarming. Like, so it's just, it's, it's only kind of contextual stuff that like you can cite the baseball. I mean, he did have a, an eight 74 OPS on the road. uh, this year. Um, I didn't, I didn't see any, like, I just think he's a, I just think he's a good hitter now. Um, I mean, I I'm almost more worried about it being this out of nowhere season than it being because of the park or the ball. Like I, I, I do worry about the lack of track record. Like I definitely value track record. Um, but I, I thought, I thought ring cone just had a monster season. Um, And then the defense, like, you know, he doesn't have to be a 20-homer hitter to play a lot. And I think what he did with the stolen bases, you know, maybe he's just kind of like a 15-homer, 25-steal guy in his best season, but that's still really valuable. Yeah.

01:05:36
Speaker 3: I think, you know, that's kind of what it is, right? Like, people forget that just because his name is Brian Rancone, like, he's an American and went to high school in Pittsburgh. So he's like a cold weather prospect on top of it. It's almost like a Josh bias where I think there is, you know, you're not seeing as many at bats. You're not seeing the quality of it. Bats is if you're playing high school baseball in, you know, the Southern CIF in California, or some of these guys that I know you talked to Dustin a lot, like the guys that he's scouting in Texas, like Florida, right. those guys play 12 months a year and there's no cold weather they got to hide from. So I think there's always like that struggle season that these guys have, and then they kind of level up from there. So wouldn't shock me if, if that's the case with him and Cone.

01:06:30
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, it's, it's interesting. I, I, I love him. I think it's, it's a great buy low. He will not be on the baseball America top 100, uh, I think that's been established, but I ranked him in the top 100. Yeah, so I think check out that article for some more buy low guys we didn't talk about and definitely check out the Dynasty Top 500 that is fully updated. Thanks for tuning in.