Browse #markets


Popular Recent
Transparent spinner
  • 0:00
    4:58
    • planningforlife Good Morning this is Jeremy Deedes of Planning for Life, life and financial planning consultants from Helmsley in North Yorkshire. This is my market perspective for Monday, 28 March 2011. I think the highlight of last week was George Osborne’s comment in the budget that there is no Plan B and I just want to spend the next four minutes or so looking at this and I refer you to Reinhart and Rogoff’s book, “This Time is Different” which is really now the differential work on this particular subject. The title, of course, is tongue in cheek because it has happened many, many times before that we get into these financial crisis, particularly deleveraging crisis, where we’ve seen the personal, banking and government sectors having to take dramatic steps to reduce their debt levels or else go bankrupt. It is estimated that the total government debt, the short and long-term and that includes pension liabilities probably amount to in the region £80,000 per household at the moment – staggering sum. Interesting only around £100 or £200 for that is down to the bank bale out. The rest of it is much longer-term debt. Reinhart and Rogoff, in their book, look to the aftermath of major financial crisis, such as the one we’ve just been through, and what they found was not particularly nice or pleasant. They found out on average real house prices dropped 35% over six years, equity prices dropped 55% over three years, unemployment rose 7% over four years, output dropped 9% over two years, and government debt rose 86% of GDP over five years. That’s a terrible situation to be in and it does need drastic action. So what are the chances or options? Well, you could offer a high inflation policy which obviously reduces real value of debt but has other significant side effects, of course. You could try the currency devaluation but really only benefits the export sector, which is not a huge part of our economy. You could hope for a big external shock leading to rapid growth, and of course it is how the U.S. got out of the Great Depression, the shock in this case being a second world war – not really a route we want to go down. The Chancellor could default on his debt, once again has major implications for our long-term credit worthiness – it’s not a route we really want to go down. So it leaves the final option which is the Chancellor’s Plan A which is to tighten the belt and do whatever we can to reduce government debt as much as possible, as quickly as possible – and to be honest, unless that happens, we are in real trouble. We are when never going to recover. We could end up going the way of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and end up being a dogged economy for generations. However, if the Chancellor’s Plan A does work, we could emerge as a very strong economy, well-placed particularly relative to Europe, particularly peripheral Europe and possibly even the U.S. So it might be rough for the next year or so. I think we are all going to have to tighten our belts, but I think we also need to be looking further ahead at the possible opportunities arising from this. So a quick look at the markets last week, which were universally up. There was a focus on global growth and investors took to snapping up bargain stocks at bargain prices after the recent falls post the earthquake and also investors buying into companies that might benefit from Japanese reconstruction. Generally, markets around the world dropped around 3% to 4% in spite of mixed economic data, particularly U.S. housing data which remained weak and is still a real concern for the U.S. economy. Bottom line, bearing in mind that there are still significant risks around – the nuclear and growth risk in Japan, political risk in the Middle East, sovereign debt risk and growth risk in peripheral Europe, and the possibility of a stalling recovery in the U.S. As was already mentioned awhile, longer term opportunities as particular for those economies which take steps to get themselves out of the mess that they are in. Can I just reiterate, I’ll mention that in this situation you need to bounce multi-asset class portfolio which is protected against macroeconomic risks and is able quickly to take advantages of opportunities as they arise. Also in this week, market meeting events. We’ll see the end of the quarter on Thursday so there might be a bit of volatility in the markets. In the U.S., there is a lot of data this week focusing on the consumer sector. Today we get figures on personal income and spending; tomorrow, Tuesday, consumer confidence figures; Thursday, jobless claims again; and on Friday, the all important March employment situation which will be interesting to look at. Well that’s it for me. Thank you a lot for listening and I will back next week. Before I go, just a reminder that nothing in this commentary should be regarded as advice. Planning for Life cannot be held responsible for the outcome of any action taken based on this commentary if advice has not been sought beforehand. You should contact Planning for Life on 01439 770 105 or through our website www.planningforlife.org or look for professional advice before taking any action relating to your personal finances. Planning for Life is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority, our number is 448 184. Thank you.
    • planningforlife Good Morning this is Jeremy Deedes of Planning for Life, life and financial planning consultants from Helmsley in North Yorkshire. This is my market perspective for Monday, 28 March 2011. I think the highlight of last week was George Osborne’s comment in the budget that there is no Plan B and I just want to spend the next four minutes or so looking at this and I refer you to Reinhart and Rogoff’s book, “This Time is Different” which is really now the differential work on this particular subject. The title, of course, is tongue in cheek because it has happened many, many times before that we get into these financial crisis, particularly deleveraging crisis, where we’ve seen the personal, banking and government sectors having to take dramatic steps to reduce their debt levels or else go bankrupt. It is estimated that the total government debt, the short and long-term and that includes pension liabilities probably amount to in the region £80,000 per household at the moment – staggering sum. Interesting only around £100 or £200 for that is down to the bank bale out. The rest of it is much longer-term debt. Reinhart and Rogoff, in their book, look to the aftermath of major financial crisis, such as the one we’ve just been through, and what they found was not particularly nice or pleasant. They found out on average real house prices dropped 35% over six years, equity prices dropped 55% over three years, unemployment rose 7% over four years, output dropped 9% over two years, and government debt rose 86% of GDP over five years. That’s a terrible situation to be in and it does need drastic action. So what are the chances or options? Well, you could offer a high inflation policy which obviously reduces real value of debt but has other significant side effects, of course. You could try the currency devaluation but really only benefits the export sector, which is not a huge part of our economy. You could hope for a big external shock leading to rapid growth, and of course it is how the U.S. got out of the Great Depression, the shock in this case being a second world war – not really a route we want to go down. The Chancellor could default on his debt, once again has major implications for our long-term credit worthiness – it’s not a route we really want to go down. So it leaves the final option which is the Chancellor’s Plan A which is to tighten the belt and do whatever we can to reduce government debt as much as possible, as quickly as possible – and to be honest, unless that happens, we are in real trouble. We are when never going to recover. We could end up going the way of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and end up being a dogged economy for generations. However, if the Chancellor’s Plan A does work, we could emerge as a very strong economy, well-placed particularly relative to Europe, particularly peripheral Europe and possibly even the U.S. So it might be rough for the next year or so. I think we are all going to have to tighten our belts, but I think we also need to be looking further ahead at the possible opportunities arising from this. So a quick look at the markets last week, which were universally up. There was a focus on global growth and investors took to snapping up bargain stocks at bargain prices after the recent falls post the earthquake and also investors buying into companies that might benefit from Japanese reconstruction. Generally, markets around the world dropped around 3% to 4% in spite of mixed economic data, particularly U.S. housing data which remained weak and is still a real concern for the U.S. economy. Bottom line, bearing in mind that there are still significant risks around – the nuclear and growth risk in Japan, political risk in the Middle East, sovereign debt risk and growth risk in peripheral Europe, and the possibility of a stalling recovery in the U.S. As was already mentioned awhile, longer term opportunities as particular for those economies which take steps to get themselves out of the mess that they are in. Can I just reiterate, I’ll mention that in this situation you need to bounce multi-asset class portfolio which is protected against macroeconomic risks and is able quickly to take advantages of opportunities as they arise. Also in this week, market meeting events. We’ll see the end of the quarter on Thursday so there might be a bit of volatility in the markets. In the U.S., there is a lot of data this week focusing on the consumer sector. Today we get figures on personal income and spending; tomorrow, Tuesday, consumer confidence figures; Thursday, jobless claims again; and on Friday, the all important March employment situation which will be interesting to look at. Well that’s it for me. Thank you a lot for listening and I will back next week. Before I go, just a reminder that nothing in this commentary should be regarded as advice. Planning for Life cannot be held responsible for the outcome of any action taken based on this commentary if advice has not been sought beforehand. You should contact Planning for Life on 01439 770 105 or through our website www.planningforlife.org or look for professional advice before taking any action relating to your personal finances. Planning for Life is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority, our number is 448 184. Thank you.
  • 0:00
    4:57
    A brief but comprehensive overview of global markets and economies, including a review of last weeks events, market numbers, the bottom...
  • 0:00
    3:32
    • planningforlife Apologies - figures given for market performance in this commentary are for 2010 to date, not last week. Jeremy Deedes
  • 0:00
    4:29
    Alpari's James Hughes believes the US #Presidential #election, starting on Tuesday, will cause some movement across financial #markets...
  • 0:00
    5:00
    A brief overview of global markets and a discussion about the idiocy of politicians and regulators in both causing and continuing the...
  • 0:00
    4:59
    A brief but comprehensive overview of global markets and economies, including a review of last weeks events, market numbers, the bottom...
  • 0:00
    25:50
    A description of a typical trip to the markets in Cuba. What you can find and why it takes a long time and effort to source food. ...
  • 0:00
    4:44
    When the Legal Futures Conference proved 'it is indeed happening'...
  • 0:00
    3:11
    The FTSE has started the week off with big falls as continuing uncertainty over Greece continues. We hear the city's reaction from...
  • 0:00
    21:38
    Edited highlights of my first proper binaural trip with the Roland CS-10EM earbuds. We take a trip on the train, walk around the...
    macolgan, RecEvery like this.
    • turbostream Haha, I was tempted so I was.
    • macolgan Great soundscape Adrian - thought u was there waiting on the train to Glasgow ;))
  • 0:00
    5:00
    A brief overview of global markets last week, followed by a discussion of a Navigator principle to winning in a changing world. This week...