Paul Martin's Business Update - October 17th

Despite the clouds caused by talk of a break-up of the potash marketing structure in Eastern Europe, the latest forecast on Saskatchewan’s economic outlook from the team at TD Bank is one of the more upbeat ones we’ve seen lately.

The update reduces its expectation for economic growth this year – from 2.6 per cent to 2.4 – one of the most modest revisions we’ve seen. The bank says the uncertainty over potash production in light of the European pledge to increase production and lower prices in its pursuit of market share may be overblown. As a result, it expects production to grow in the new year which will help push our growth rate to 3 percent in the next fiscal year.

Both the forecast for this year and next from TD have Saskatchewan in second spot. It does, however, forecast a slowing of job creation in 2014/15 as we come off an unusually strong growth spurt this year.

The TD report is something of an outlier compared to other private sector predictions…for example it has Ontario moving into third spot in growth next year.

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