Daily Market Roundup: A dead Fed meet ahead - Haitong

The opening segment of TipTV’s macro show on Monday saw host Zak Mir and Marcus Ashworth from Haitong Securities discuss Chinese economic issues that seem to have been overshadowed by oil price drama and central bank actions off late.

Ashworth is more worried about China, but noted that China’s Q1 Debt to GDP ratio of 230% as published by FT article may not be something the Chinese government would agree with.

While talking about the Fed rate decision due this week, Ashworth added the meeting could be a dead event, but added there is 90% probability of at least one rate hike this year.

CME data shows 2% probability of rate hike this week and 52% probability of rate hike in November. However, Ashworth was vouching for a rate hike in either June or December as Fed is unlikely to move rates closer to US elections. Another key event this week is BOJ meeting and Ashworth said we could expect the unexpected from both BOJ and Japanese government.

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