Editor's Pick of the Day - Governor's rule imposed in Jammu & Kashmir
A minor political earthquake hit the state of Jammu & Kashmir yesterday. The much mocked BJP-PDP coalition government in the state fell yesterday after chief minister Mehbooba Mufti Syed resigned. She quit after the BJP pulled out of its three-year-long alliance with Mehbooba’s party, PDP or the Jammu and Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party.
BJP general secretary Ram Madhav said at a press conference on 19th June, “It has become untenable for the BJP to continue in the alliance government in the state.”
The move caught more than a few people by surprise. While the coalition govt headed by Mehbooba had its share of critics, it was seen as pulling along regardless of the chaos on the streets of Kashmir.
The final deal breaker was the central govt’s refusal to extend the ceasefire on anti-terror operations it had agreed to during the period of Ramzan. At the end of Ramzan on 14th June, the union home ministry tweeted about the centre’s decision to resume anti-terror operations. A terse tweet from the MHO’s twitter handle read, “The operations against the terrorists to resume.” That was the beginning of the end.
The three-year-old government started its tenure with a fair share of drama. A Hindustan Times article noted that when she was campaigning prior to the 2014 assembly elections, Mehbooba Mufti was clear about one thing. “There is no question of allying with the BJP. We have nothing in common,’’ she told a journalist. The report recalls how the future CM would go from rally to rally talking about how imperative it was that the “BJP does not open its account in the Valley.”
Once the election results were announced, after some reluctance and public hand wringing, the two rivals decided to form a govt together. They couldn’t have been more different. The BJP had won from Jammu with a nationalistic campaign and the PDP was a Kashmiri party that promised results different from what the previous govt under the National Conference had achieved.
After her father Mufti Mohammad Sayeed’s death, Mehbooba assumed centre stage. She was sworn in as the chief minister of J&K, the first woman. To occupy that position. She was accused of being a soft separatist but now found herself sharing space with a political party that was the antithesis of her own stance. This eroded her support base. Journalists noted that the first evidence of her influence in Kashmir slipping was the low turnout for her father’s burial.
The centre’s policy of going on the offensive against armed militants, for instance Burhan Wani and others like him who declared war on the Indian state via social media, proved disastrous for the CM who had publicly decried the imposition of AFSPA , or the Armed Forces Special Powers Act, in Kashmir. Meanwhile, the protests grew more violent and the army hunted down all the terrorists and militants who attacked the security forces stationed in Kashmir. Eventually, all of the militants who had posed with Burhan Wani in a photograph were neutralized and this didn’t bode well for Mehbooba’s political ambitions. South Kashmir, her and her father’s stronghold, turned into a new hub of militancy - an area from where large numbers of youth disappeared into the surrounding mountains only to reappear on social media as militants against India. The chief minister, reports Hindustan Times, had withdrawn into a shell after pellet guns became the main news out of Kashmir. She apparently did not even heed political advice from within the party to consider walking out of the alliance with the BJP.
The BJP, on its part, copped tremendous criticism for its tie up with the PDP. As a nationalist party that was outspoken in its criticism of Article 370 and claimed Kashmir is an integral, non-negotiable part of India, its alliance with the PDP made it appear like an opportunist bunch. Every protest that injured a policeman made people question the govt that was not serving the BJP’s purpose. As the casualty list grew, so did the bile against the nationalist party. Things reached a tipping point when Mehbooba removed from the govt two BJP minsters who, it was claimed, had joined a rally in support of the alleged rapists in the Kathua case.
Such disagreements, in addition to developments like granting of the amnesty by the state government to 11,000 youngsters accused of various crimes, hurt the alliance. Then there was te AoA or Agenda of Alliance. Three months ago, in March, a senior PDP leader remarked that delays in the resumption of a dialogue and a revival of peace initiatives between India and Pakistan was a cause of worry and had the potential of undermining the 'AoA'. This statement was not received well by the BJP. The party took a swipe at the PDP leader, saying such remarks could lead to mistrust and add to confusion among the people.
Another nail in the coffin was regarding the filing of a police case against an army personnel. In January, a case was filed by Jammu and Kashmir police against an Army officer, Major Aditya, and the Army's 10 Garhwal infantry regiment, over the death of two civilians in firing by the Army. This caused another major rift, leading to more criticism of the BJP as a clueless party that was being hoodwinked repeatedly. In its response, the BJP had demanded the dropping of the Major's name from the FIR saying the move would demoralise the armed forces. Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti rejected that demand.
In April, deputy Chief Minster Lal Singh resigned following the acrimony and it looked like the end was near for the incompatible partners.
By June, there was equal parts speculation and skepticism that the govt would go after the terrorists and militants once again after Ramzan came to an end. Matters became worse after the killing of noted journalist and separatist sympathiser Shujaat Bukhari by militants on 14th June, an incident that shook the state. Then there was the abduction and murder of an army rifleman Aurangzeb, who on leave in Pulwama. This was, forgive the tired cliché, the straw that broke the camel’s back. The fact that the Ramzan ceasefire was rather once-sided, with repeated attacks on security personnel, meant that the alliance was on very shaky ground when Eid was celebrated last weekend.
The Ministry of Home Affairs announced the resumption of anti-terror operations and the 27-month old govt fell two days later. Ram Madhav, BJP’s national secretary, announced, “We have taken a decision. It has become untenable for the BJP to continue in the alliance government in Jammu and Kashmir, hence we are withdrawing." The Economic Times reported that the BJP's decision to break from the alliance apparently came after its president Amit Shah held a meeting with the party's Jammu and Kashmir cabinet ministers in Delhi. NDTV reported that When the BJP finally decided to call things off with Mehbooba Mufti, the call to the Chief Minister came from Governor Vohra, not the BJP.
The outgoing chief minster desisted from criticising the BJP. She said, “I am not shocked. We didn't do this alliance for power. This alliance had a bigger motive - unilateral ceasefire, PM's visit to Pakistan, withdrawal of cases against 11,000 youth." Yes, that was the J&K CM taking credit for PM Modi’s visit to Pakistan. Remember that giddy surprise visit? Defending her tenure as chief minister, Mehbooba declared that a "muscular policy will not work in Jammu and Kashmir".
The previous chief minister, Omar Abdullah, remarked, "I wish Mehbooba Mufti had gone with some dignity rather than having the rug pulled out from under her feet." Politicians and snark – always a fun read. Omar added that he was not shocked by the BJP's decision but only by its timing.
BJP’s rival, the Congress party, seized the moment with some snark of their own. The Congress said whatever happened, had happened for the better. Senior leader Ghulam Nabi Azad said, “I had cautioned Prime Minister Narendra Modi that a BJP-PDP alliance will be a Himalayan blunder. We are happy that the Centre has accepted its mistake."\
Arvind Kejriwal, the chief minister of Delhi who had gone quiet when he was sued for defamation by Arun Jaitley and Nitin Gadkari, came roaring back into the melee. “After ruining it, BJP pulls out of Kashmir,” he tweeted. Very Eminem like, after he settled all his law suits. Considering he had to apologise to Gadkari and Jaitley, nobody’s quite sure what Arvind Kejriwal is up to once again.
Jammu and Kashmir will now be officially under the rule of governor Narinder Nath Vohra, an old Kashmir hand and governor of the state since 2008. This is the fourth time under his tenure that the state is seeing governor’s rule – once in 2008 when the Cong-PDP govt fell; the second time was in 2015 when no party came forward to form the govt; the third time was after the death of Mehbooba’s father before she became the chief minister. The governor’s rule was today approved by President Kovind.
We can expect fresh elections in some time because none of the parties in the fray have the requisite numbers to form a government. Omar Abdullah has demanded the dissolution of the Assembly so that the process of holding early elections in the state could begin. His reasoning was that “horse trading” could not be ruled out unless the Assembly was dissolved. The state of Jammu & Kashmir has an 87-member Assembly. The PDP won 28 seats in the last election. The BJP has 25, the National Conference has 15 and the Congress has 12. CPM has one seat in the assembly; the Peoples Conference has two seats; Peoples Democratic Front has one seat and the tally is rounded off by three independent MLAs.
Under governor's rule, the state assembly either remains in suspended animation or is dissolved. If it is not possible to restore the state machinery within six-months, the governor’s rule is extended.