Macroeconomic outlook: are we back on track?

Mar 05, 09:05 AM

Summary of the macro outlook based on Commission forecasts and analysis of the global picture.

This podcast episode is part of Bruegel’s macroeconomic outlook series of The Sound of Economics, in which we bring you regular analysis of all things macro and fiscal policy.

This February, the European Commission published the Winter 2021 Economic Forecast with the estimation of a 3.7% increase in GDP in the EU in 2021. While this means a recovery from the pandemic, economic uncertainty still remains significant.

On the other side of the globe, the Biden administration has announced a $1.9 trillion fiscal package. Would this result in inflation risks? How will this affect European economies? And, what fiscal intervention is needed in the euro area?

Maria Demertzis, Deputy director of Bruegel, is joined by Elina Ribakova, Deputy Chief Economist at the Institute of International Finance, Christian Odendahl, Chief economist at the Centre for European Reform and Grégory Claeys, senior fellow at Bruegel to discuss the Commission forecast, recent US fiscal package and their insights of the macroeconomics outlook in the EU and globally.

Relevant publications:

Claeys, G. and M. Demertzis (2021) ‘The productivity paradox: policy lessons from MICROPROD’, Policy Contribution 01/2021, Bruegel

Demertzis, M., M. Domínguez-Jiménez and A. Lusardi (2020) ‘The financial fragility of European households in the time of COVID-19’, Policy Contribution 2020/15, Bruegel