The case for a recession
Episode 24, Jul 05, 2023, 08:47 PM
In the latest episode of Onward, Ben and Cardiff work through one of the most confounding questions currently poised for the economy: What do we make of two seemingly contradictory data sets, where one is telling us that the economy is generally healthy, while the other says we remain precisely on track for a full-blown recession, according to all historical precedent? This source of cognitive dissonance recently sent Ben down a path of research, which has led to a critical observation: Before every recession in recorded Fed history comes a “Great Lag” — an average of 10 months between when the Fed reached peak interest rates and when the subsequent recessions actually began… resulting in a devastating average total stock market decline of -43%. Taking this data into consideration, the task of navigating the recession still hasn’t even started — in fact, we still haven’t even entered the first inning, as Ben says. If many companies are already strained in the current market, with current interest rates — as we’ve seen borne out in some sectors of commercial real estate — they certainly are not prepared for the the multi-year marathon of economic hardship that this data forecasts. So, despite the relative calm of our current economic moment, Ben points out that right now is the moment to prepare for what is almost certainly a recession still lingering on the horizon.
Have questions or feedback about this episode? Drop us a note at Onward@Fundrise.com.
Onward is hosted by Ben Miller, co-founder and CEO of Fundrise, and Cardiff Garcia, co-founder of Bazaar Audio and host of the economics-focused podcast The New Bazaar (after spending many years as the co-creator and co-host of NPR's The Indicator podcast).
Podcast production by The Podcast Consultant. Music by Seaplane Armada.
About Fundrise
With over 1 million users, Fundrise is America's largest direct-to-investor alternative asset investment platform. Since 2012, our mission has been to build a better financial system by empowering the individual. We make it easier and more efficient than ever for anyone to invest in institutional-quality private alternative assets — all at the touch of a button.
Please see fundrise.com/oc for more information on all of the Fundrise-sponsored investment funds and products, including each fund’s offering document(s).
Want to see the specific properties that make up and power Fundrise portfolios? Check out our active and past projects at www.fundrise.com/assets.
Have questions or feedback about this episode? Drop us a note at Onward@Fundrise.com.
Onward is hosted by Ben Miller, co-founder and CEO of Fundrise, and Cardiff Garcia, co-founder of Bazaar Audio and host of the economics-focused podcast The New Bazaar (after spending many years as the co-creator and co-host of NPR's The Indicator podcast).
Podcast production by The Podcast Consultant. Music by Seaplane Armada.
About Fundrise
With over 1 million users, Fundrise is America's largest direct-to-investor alternative asset investment platform. Since 2012, our mission has been to build a better financial system by empowering the individual. We make it easier and more efficient than ever for anyone to invest in institutional-quality private alternative assets — all at the touch of a button.
Please see fundrise.com/oc for more information on all of the Fundrise-sponsored investment funds and products, including each fund’s offering document(s).
Want to see the specific properties that make up and power Fundrise portfolios? Check out our active and past projects at www.fundrise.com/assets.