A Posh Bank
Episode 2550, Jul 21, 2023, 01:51 PM
We are seeing, I believe, the start…. of the end…. of the bear market.
Bear = 20% below highs
Bull = 20% above lows
Inflation figures this week….
Inflation / CPI year on year to June
Actual = 7.9%
Forecast = 8.2%
Previous = 8.7%
Even Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) which BoE pay attention to is below forecasts...
Actual = 6.9%
Forecast = 7.1%
Previous = 7.1%
The Producer Price Index (PPI) Input (YoY) (Jun)
Actual = -2.7%
Forecast = -1.6%
Previous = 0.4%
If input costs fall, some of the decline will be enjoyed as wider profit margins by the producer and some will be passed on to the consumer in the form of lower prices.
This eventually feeds into CPI
I think the bottom is behind us.
Bear = 20% below highs
Bull = 20% above lows
Inflation figures this week….
Inflation / CPI year on year to June
Actual = 7.9%
Forecast = 8.2%
Previous = 8.7%
Even Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) which BoE pay attention to is below forecasts...
Actual = 6.9%
Forecast = 7.1%
Previous = 7.1%
The Producer Price Index (PPI) Input (YoY) (Jun)
Actual = -2.7%
Forecast = -1.6%
Previous = 0.4%
If input costs fall, some of the decline will be enjoyed as wider profit margins by the producer and some will be passed on to the consumer in the form of lower prices.
This eventually feeds into CPI
I think the bottom is behind us.