2. Calculated Risk and Critical Intelligence: Setting the Stage for Midway

AUTHOR: Professor Craig Symonds

BOOK TITLE: Nimitz at War: Command Leadership from Pearl Harbor to Tokyo Bay

Following the Pearl Harbor attack, Nimitz was urged by King to "Attack, attack, attack," despite inadequate resources. Nimitz applied his concept of calculated risk, developed at the Naval War College, assessing the benefit to be derived against the risk assumed. Nimitz viewed the Doolittle Raid as a "public relations stunt," but chose not to fight the scheme, even though it used 50% of his offensive carrier capability. Crucial to Nimitz's success was intelligence derived from Japanese radio traffic by Lieutenant Commander Joseph Rochefort's cryptanalysis group, relayed by Eddie Layton. Nimitz deployed forces for the Battle of the Coral Sea (the first battle where ships never sighted each other). For Midway, Nimitz replaced the ill Admiral Halsey with the quiet, non-aviator Raymond Spruance. Nimitz later temporarily relieved aviator Marc Mitscher for disguising a misstep in an after-action report.