The Electorate are Unhappy, Uncertain, and Unpredictable:
In the very short period of time since the 2024 General Election, the electorate of the UK has changed its mind more on which party it supports than at any other time in polling history. Labour have managed to loose half its support, not to Reform, but to progressive parties and uncertainty (don’t knows). The Liberals have both gained and lost support, so appear stable, but under the surface there is little stability in who says they will vote that way. The Greens have doubled in popularity – but why should this last? The Conservatives have managed to fall from an historic low, to become even less popular – mainly through voters defecting to Reform; while Reform has hugely increased its support, partly also from picking up many former “don’t knows”. The Prime Minster is the most unpopular ever, but each almost all of his recent predecessors could also claim that mantle when in office.
If the polls are to be believed, then the situation is continuing to alter fast. Labour has lost support - not to Reform, but to progressive parties and to uncertainty itself. The Greens have doubled in popularity, while the Conservatives have somehow managed to become even less popular, largely through voters defecting to Reform. And the Prime Minister? The most unpopular ever - though he’s in familiar company.
In this fast-paced and not entirely dismal talk, geographer Danny Dorling takes a clear-eyed look at the shifting sands of British politics. From who’s pulling the strings to how MPs are behaving as their personal futures grow more uncertain, he explores what these seismic movements in public opinion might tell us about the country’s mood - and where we might be headed next.
Danny Dorling was speaking at the Sunday Papers Live in London on November 2nd 2025. he works at the University of Oxford. His most recent books include Seven Children, Peak Injustice, and The Next Crisis. He also works with the road crash charity RoadPeace, Heeley City Farm in Sheffield, and the education campaign group Comprehensive Future. In his spare time, he makes sandcastles.
