Your Mortgage Rate Depends on This—And It's Not What You Think

Oil is dropping — and that could be a big deal for mortgage rates.

In today’s Rate Update, we’re looking at why oil prices matter so much for homebuyers and homeowners watching mortgage rates.

Oil is one of the biggest inflation pressure points in the economy. When oil spikes, inflation fears can rise, bond yields can move higher, and mortgage rates can feel the pressure. But when oil starts falling, the opposite can happen — inflation pressure may cool, bonds may improve, and mortgage rates may get some relief.

Mortgage rates dropped yesterday, and now the big question is whether this is the start of a bigger move lower or just a short-term reaction.

Today we’re watching oil, the 10-Year Treasury, mortgage-backed securities, jobs data, and the broader market reaction.

If oil keeps sliding back toward the $60–$65 range, mortgage rates may have room to follow lower. But if jobs data comes in too strong or inflation pressure stays sticky, that could slow down the move.

For homebuyers, this is why preparation matters. For homeowners, this is why tracking refinance opportunities matters. The market can move quickly — and understanding what drives mortgage rates can help you make better decisions.

CHAPTERS
00:00 Mortgage rates are reacting to oil
00:42 Why oil matters for mortgage rates
01:35 Oil prices are falling
02:28 The inflation connection homeowners need to understand
03:20 Mortgage rates dropped yesterday
04:05 Can rates move back toward the high-5s?
05:05 Today’s economic data to watch
06:00 Jobs, claims, payrolls, and bond market reaction
07:05 What homebuyers should do right now
08:00 What homeowners watching refinance rates should know
08:40 Final takeaway: watch oil, bonds, and rates

🔗 NEXT STEPS

🏠 Ready to Buy or Refinance? Get Pre-Approved  
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📅 Want to Talk Through Your Options? Schedule a Consultation  
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✉️ Have Questions? Contact / Ask Dan  
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TOP RESOURCES
📉 Track Mortgage Rates Automatically → https://rw2.therateupdate.com/
🏠 TRU Mortgage Command Center → https://command.therateupdate.com/
💳 TRU Debt Optimizer → https://debtrelief.therateupdate.com/
🧮 Mortgage Calculators & Tools → https://stan.store/TRU-Foundations
📊 Credit Monitoring → https://www.smartcredit.com/?PID=42980
📈 Free Credit Scores → https://www.creditkarma.com/lp/free-credit-scores-v12aff?adcopy=0&adcampaign=core_acq_awin

Welcome to The Rate Update with Dan Frio.

I break down mortgage rates, housing, inflation, Treasury yields, Federal Reserve policy, and economic news that impacts homebuyers, homeowners, real estate professionals, and anyone watching the housing market.

My goal is simple: help you understand what’s happening, why it matters, and what you should do next.

On this channel, you’ll find content about:
- Mortgage rates today
- Housing market updates
- Refinance opportunities
- Homebuying strategies
- Inflation and Federal Reserve news
- Treasury and bond market movements
- Mortgage industry insights

WORK WITH ME
📅 Schedule a Consultation → https://calendly.com/d/cq29-7xd-x3v/the-frio-team?month=2025-05
📝 Apply for a Mortgage → https://257781.my1003app.com/246527/register
📨 Contact / Ask Dan → https://www.therateupdate.com/contact

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— DISCLAIMER —
Dan Frio is a licensed mortgage loan officer in all 50 states and Puerto Rico, NMLS #246527, with TRU Mortgage Team / PBT Bancorp, NMLS #257781, an Equal Housing Lender.

This channel and all content published by Dan Frio are for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing in this video, description, comments, calculators, tools, emails, websites, or linked content should be considered an offer to lend, a commitment to lend, financial advice, legal advice, tax advice, or investment advice.

Mortgage approvals, loan terms, interest rates, down payment requirements, and program availability are subject to change without notice and depend on borrower qualifications, including credit score, income, assets, employment, property type, occupancy, appraisal, title, underwriting approval, and current lending guidelines.

All opinions expressed are solely those of Dan Frio and do not necessarily reflect the views of PBT Bancorp, its affiliates, or any other institution.

Use of this channel, watching videos, commenting, messaging, scheduling, or submitting information does not create a client relationship. All examples, payment scenarios, savings illustrations, and mortgage comparisons are for demonstration purposes only and should be independently verified.

Not all borrowers will qualify. Equal Housing Lender.

TRU Mortgage Team / PBT Bancorp
NMLS #257781
Dan Frio NMLS #246527
Equal Housing Lender