Elbridge Colby explains that if a denial defense succeeds, the burden of escalation falls on China, which may attempt horizontal (geographic) or vertical (intensity) escalation. Colby notes that limited nuclear use is risky for Beijing as it might cataly

Elbridge Colby explains that if a denial defense succeeds, the burden of escalation falls on China, which may attempt horizontal (geographic) or vertical (intensity) escalation. Colby notes that limited nuclear use is risky for Beijing as it might catalyze American "righteous might" and vengeance. Conversely, if the denial defense fails, the coalition faces the difficult challenge of mobilizing for a larger conflict to recapture territory. Despite economic concerns, societies are often more resilient than expected. Ultimately, backing down would have catastrophic global implications, fundamentally altering American freedom and prosperity over time. (6/8)
DECEMBER 1951