84% Chance the Fed Does THIS to Your Mortgage Next Week

Oil hit $120 a barrel during the last Iran conflict. Today it's sitting around $80... during the SAME kind of conflict. That gap is the whole story for where mortgage rates go next, and I break down exactly why in today's video.

I also walk through the two things the Federal Reserve actually cares about (inflation and jobs), what last week's data really showed, and why I'm telling you there's basically a 100% chance the Fed does nothing at next week's meeting. Then I get into what I'm personally telling my clients to do right now if you're under contract, or if you're planning to buy later this year.

Stick around to the end, I show you the exact tools I use every single day to track this stuff myself, and how you can use them too.

📖 Want more detail on what could move rates at next week's meeting? Read the full breakdown here: Fed Meeting Preview: What Could Move Mortgage Rates? — The Frio Team https://www.therateupdate.com/blog/fed-meeting-preview-what-could-move-mortgage-rates

📍 LINKS FROM TODAY'S VIDEO 🏠 Ready to Buy or Refinance? Get Pre-Approved https://257781.my1003app.com/246527/register 📅 Want to Talk Through Your Options? Schedule a Consultation https://calendly.com/d/cq29-7xd-x3v/the-frio-team?month=2025-05 ✉️ Have Questions? Contact / Ask Dan https://www.therateupdate.com/contact

⏱️ CHAPTERS 
0:00 What the Fed Is Really Watching This Week 
1:45 Inflation, Jobs & the Numbers Behind the Decision 
4:00 Oil at $120 vs $80: Why the Gap Matters 
6:15 This Week's Calendar & the Fed's Real Odds 
8:30 What I'm Telling Buyers to Do Right Now

Welcome to The Rate Update with Dan Frio.

This channel helps homebuyers, homeowners, real estate professionals, and anyone watching the housing market understand what is really happening with mortgage rates, housing, inflation, the bond market, the Federal Reserve, and the economy.

My goal is simple: No hype. Just real data, clear explanations, and practical next steps.

Here, we break down the stories that impact your mortgage payment, your buying power, your refinance options, and your financial decisions.

WHAT YOU'LL FIND ON THIS CHANNEL

🏠 Mortgage rate updates 📉 Housing market news 📊 Inflation and Federal Reserve analysis 📈 10-Year Treasury and bond market movement 💰 Refinance opportunities 🏡 Homebuyer education 🔁 RateWatch and mortgage monitoring tools 🧮 Mortgage calculators and payment tools 🎥 Live market updates and housing commentary

Whether you are buying your first home, refinancing your current mortgage, comparing loan options, or just trying to understand why rates are moving, this channel is built to help you make better decisions.

TOP RESOURCES

📉 Track Mortgage Rates Automatically https://rw2.therateupdate.com/ 🏠 TRU Mortgage Command Center https://command.therateupdate.com/ 💳 TRU Debt Optimizer https://debtrelief.therateupdate.com/ 🧮 Mortgage Calculators & Tools https://stan.store/TRU-Foundations

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DISCLAIMER

Dan Frio is a licensed mortgage loan officer in all 50 states and Puerto Rico. NMLS #246527 | TRU Mortgage Team / PBT Bancorp NMLS #257781 | Equal Housing Lender.

This channel is for education and commentary only. Topics may include mortgage rates, real estate, housing, stocks, bonds, cryptocurrency, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and financial markets.

All opinions are my own and do not represent PBT Bancorp, TRU Mortgage Team, or any financial institution I may be employed by or affiliated with.

Nothing on this channel is an offer to lend, a commitment to lend, financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. Mortgage rates, terms, approvals, and programs are subject to borrower qualifications, market conditions, underwriting approval, and change without notice. Not all borrowers will qualify.