Mortgage Rates vs. Home Prices: Can You Still Afford the Same House in 2026?
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Mortgage rates today are moving because of the bond market and oil prices, not the Federal Reserve. Here's what really affects mortgage rates and why homes are still so unaffordable.
If you're a homebuyer, realtor, loan officer, or homeowner watching where rates go from here, I break down the mortgage bond, inflation, oil, and the Fed in plain English, with the real numbers.
IN THIS EPISODE
📉 Why mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are down 22 today and what that means for your rate
💵 How bond prices and yields work, and why rates rise when bond prices fall
🏦 Why the Federal Reserve doesn't control mortgage rates (it moves credit cards, car loans, and personal loans)
🏠 Home prices: $404,000 in 2023 vs. $429,000 today, so no crash, just slow appreciation
📊 Average 30-year rates: 7.18% in 2023, 6.35% in 2024, about 6.5% in 2025
🧾 Why homes are still unaffordable: rising property taxes and insurance costs
🛢️ Why oil at $100 a barrel is the number traders are watching for inflation and rates
🔒 Should you lock today? What I'm telling buyers with a contract in
Read the full breakdown on the blog:
https://www.therateupdate.com/blog
CHAPTERS
0:00 Mortgage Rates Today: Bond Market Is Down
1:50 How Bond Prices and Yields Move Mortgage Rates
3:30 Home Prices and Mortgage Rates Since 2023
5:45 Why the Fed Doesn't Control Mortgage Rates
8:15 Oil, Inflation, and Should You Lock Today
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WHERE TO START
🏡 Buying a home: FHA, VA, USDA, conventional, jumbo and down payment assistance
https://www.therateupdate.com/first-time-home-buyer
🔁 Refinancing or accessing equity: cash-out, FHA Streamline, VA IRRRL, HELOC and reverse
https://www.therateupdate.com/homeowner-options
🏢 Buying rentals: DSCR on 1 to 8 units, bank statement and no-income options
https://www.therateupdate.com/investment-property-loans
🎁 Down payment assistance: 3.5% to 5%, including grants you never repay
https://www.therateupdate.com/down-payment-assistance
TOP RESOURCES
📊 TRU Mortgage Command Center: Live Rate Dashboard
https://command.therateupdate.com/
💳 TRU Debt Optimizer
https://debtrelief.therateupdate.com/
🧮 Mortgage Calculators & Tools
https://www.therateupdate.com/mortgage-calculators
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DISCLAIMER
Dan Frio | NMLS #246527 | PBT Bancorp | NMLS #257781 | Equal Housing Lender
524 Main St, Hazard, KY 41701
NMLS Consumer Access: https://www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org/
Dan Frio is a federally registered mortgage loan originator with PBT Bancorp. Mortgage products are originated by PBT Bancorp, NMLS #257781.
This channel is for education and commentary only. Topics may include mortgage rates, real estate, housing, stocks, bonds, cryptocurrency, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and financial markets.
All opinions are my own and do not represent PBT Bancorp or any financial institution I may be employed by or affiliated with.
Nothing on this channel is an offer to lend, a commitment to lend, or financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. Mortgage rates, terms, approvals and programs are subject to borrower qualifications, market conditions, underwriting approval, and change without notice. Not all borrowers will qualify.
#MortgageRates #MortgageRatesToday #HousingMarket #BondMarket #FederalReserve #Inflation #Homebuyers #Realtors #TheRateUpdate