How Far Must Home Prices Fall to Offset a 7.5% Mortgage Rate?

Mortgage rates are at 7.5% today, up from 5.99% in March, and the housing market would need to fall about 14% to bring your payment back. I break down the Case-Shiller home price report, the PCE inflation number, and why I see a 70% chance the Federal Reserve raises rates at its next meeting.

🏠 Home prices rose 2.5% in the Case-Shiller index. No crash, just higher prices
 📉 Waiting cost buyers more: rates went from 5.99% to 7.5% since March
 📊 PCE inflation and the ADP jobs report are the numbers to watch this week
 🏦 I explain why I think the Fed hikes in 29 days, and again in December
 🛢️ Watch oil: higher oil means higher inflation and higher mortgage rates
 🔁 What I'm telling my clients to do right now if they're buying, building, or already own

Read my full daily breakdown and forecast on the blog: https://www.therateupdate.com/blog

CHAPTERS
 0:00 What Are You Waiting For? Rates 5.99% vs 7.5%
 1:55 Case-Shiller Home Prices Jump to 2.5%
 3:05 Why a 14% Price Drop Would Be Needed to Match March Payments
 5:10 PCE, Jobs Report and the Fed's Next Move
 8:05 What I'm Telling Buyers Right Now (Tools and Rate Watch)

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Welcome to The Rate Update with Dan Frio.

This channel helps homebuyers, homeowners, real estate professionals, and anyone watching the housing market understand what is really happening with mortgage rates, housing, inflation, the bond market, the Federal Reserve, and the economy.

Here we break down the stories that impact your mortgage payment, your buying power, your refinance options, and your financial decisions.

WHAT YOU'LL FIND ON THIS CHANNEL
 🏠 Daily mortgage rate updates
 📉 Housing market news and home price trends
 📊 Inflation, CPI, and Federal Reserve analysis
 📈 10-Year Treasury and mortgage bond movement
 💰 Refinance and debt consolidation opportunities
 🏡 First-time homebuyer education
 🔁 Rate Watch mortgage monitoring tools
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WHERE TO START

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🏢 Buying rentals — DSCR on 1 to 8 units, bank statement and no-income options
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🎁 Down payment assistance — 3.5% to 5%, including grants you never repay
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TOP RESOURCES

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🧮 Mortgage Calculators & Tools
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DISCLAIMER

Dan Frio | NMLS #246527 | PBT Bancorp | NMLS #257781 | Equal Housing Lender
 524 Main St, Hazard, KY 41701
 NMLS Consumer Access: https://www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org/

Dan Frio is a federally registered mortgage loan originator with PBT Bancorp. Mortgage products are originated by PBT Bancorp, NMLS #257781.

This channel is for education and commentary only. Topics may include mortgage rates, real estate, housing, stocks, bonds, cryptocurrency, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and financial markets.

All opinions are my own and do not represent PBT Bancorp or any financial institution I may be employed by or affiliated with.

Nothing on this channel is an offer to lend, a commitment to lend, or financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. Mortgage rates, terms, approvals and programs are subject to borrower qualifications, market conditions, underwriting approval, and change without notice. Not all borrowers will qualify.

#MortgageRates #HousingMarket #FederalReserve #Inflation #HomeBuyers