Paul Martin’s Business Update – February 2nd, 2015
The falling price of oil has prompted the economists at TD Bank to revise their forecast for the provincial economy and, as you’d guess, its downward.
The bank says the three major oil producers – Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland, will underperform the rest of the country this year and next. Plus, they’ve revised their forecast for the year that just ended as we have yet to get the final numbers on 2014.
It says Saskatchewan will see growth of between 1.2 and 1.8 per cent annually in 2014, 15 and 16. That’s quite a bit lower than the numbers we were seeing in previous years but still not in recession territory. Newfoundland, however, will not be so lucky as they can expect an actual contraction in growth.
With growth of half a percentage point Alberta is expected to be the second poorest performer in 2015, behind Newfoundland. Then Saskatchewan is third from the bottom. Next year will see a slight improvement as we go from 1.5 per cent this year to 1.8 in 2016.
And, job creation will continue but more modestly