Paul Martin’s Business Update – February 24th, 2015

Feb 24, 2015, 05:08 PM

A couple more voices have been added to the chorus that Saskatchewan is not headed for a recession this year.

Falling oil prices have left many people feeling a bit skittish about our economic prospects, especially with all the news flowing out of Alberta about the impact they expect to see. Nonetheless, two forecasters have suggested Saskatchewan will not see a recession. Both the Conference Board and CIBC say this province will experience real GDP growth of about eight-tenths of a percentage point this year. CIBC says we will bounce back to 2.5 percent next year.

But here’s where it gets interesting. Alberta, they say, will likely experience a recession as will Newfoundland but of all the provinces Alberta, offers CIBC’s economists, has the most ability to sustain itself through a down cycle. It would take years of government deficits, according to the bank, to approach the debt levels Ontario is carrying.

And things are reversed right now according to CIBC which has Ontario as leading the pack this year followed by Manitoba.